Bit premature maybe, but with that latest amazing display at the Russian security meeting I'm fairly sure this is a lock.
Then it gets astonishing.
Putin: speak clearly, do you support recognition?
Naryshkin: I will
Putin: You will or you do?
Naryshkin: I support bringing them into Russia.
Putin: That’s not what we are discussing! Do you support recognizing independence?
Naryshkin, flustered: Yes