Ryder Cup
(this is on the long side a la the Masters, but I write it out to get my own thoughts in order so you might as well have it)
I could go into my usual spiel introducing the tournament, but I think we all know what the Ryder Cup is: United States vs Europe in 28 games of golf to keep the cup for the next two years. It's probably the best event in golf, possibly even the best bilateral event in all of sport, which I think is for two reasons. First of all, the team element sweeps away most of the corporate / money-driven bullshit that normally surrounds and dulls the game of golf, a game that is fundamentally thrilling but has been hamstrung for decades by the boring tossers who run and participate in it. Secondly, this is, to my knowledge, the only major sporting event in which the United States of America - competing as such - is opposed by a rival anything like its size and strength.
In reality, even the whole of Europe is, on paper, completely dwarfed by America in golfing terms. With money, top events and the generously funded college system all aggressively concentrated within the US of A, European golf is always playing catch up. The USA always names by far the stronger Ryder Cup side on paper. I think there has only been one occasion in history, 2006, when Europe have matched America on paper. All of this points to American domination with Europe as perennial underdogs. Europe are perennial underdogs - and yet they have won seven of the last nine Ryder Cups, which is a real sporting curiosity. Once again, in 2021, USA go off at 1.59 on the exchange, with Europe 3.25 and the tie 14. So will Europe continue their remarkable habit of bucking the odds, or are USA going to get it together this time?
Preview
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US Team
All the smartest analysts I read agree: America have got their team right this time. The six automatic qualifiers are all studs in the top 15 in the world, and they have an unprecedented high of six captain's picks to complement them. These were Spieth, Schauffele, Finau, Berger, English and Scheffler. As it happened, five of the six were the next five on the qualifying list, so unlike some I am not going head over heels to praise captain Stricker for his ingenious selections. There was a campaign by some for shorter-hitting battlers like Kisner or Na to make the side, but the American plan has been clear from the off: they are going to set the course up to favour long hitting with no premium on accuracy, and they have picked players to suit. The theoretical strength of this US side is almost unlimited - it's a side without weaknesses.
Europe Team
In contrast to America, Europe have had a number of players run into questionable form over the summer. The Moliwood partnership of 2018 has proved short-lived, with Francesco Molinari well out of sorts for some time now and not making the side. The headline act is the world number one, Jon Rahm, who is by far the world's best golfer. However, his support act is nowhere near as deep as what America has. Many of Europe's multiple winning players are now in their 40s and there is a question mark over whether they have another tilt in them. Justin Rose has not even made it, snubbed for a pick in favour of Shane Lowry, a decision which caused outrage among those who watch little golf and look to name recognition in this event, but makes perfect sense for those who do. Veterans Poulter and Garcia won the other two captains' picks, but Europe find themselves very much the weaker in theory of the two sides.
Preview - Foursomes
There are eight points up for grabs in foursomes, in which teams of two golfers hit alternate shots on the same ball. Generally this calls for steady players who meet the course requirements. The key to strategy here is that one of your pair tees off on the odd holes and another on the even holes. My reading is that your stronger driver needs to be on the even holes, with a good iron player taking the odd holes as there are three par 3s and some more open par 4s on the odd side. There is no way that USA can possibly field Bryson DeChambeau in this format - he is a complete headcase. I also expect them to rest Brooks Koepka, who is an awkward tit at the best of times and also unfit. They have many options available to them, but this is what I would expect to see from the US in terms of foursomes pairings:
Spieth / Thomas
Morikawa / Schauffele / Cantlay (any two from these three)
Johnson / English
Finau / Scheffler - I am less certain about this one, but this is a 'feel-good' pair with matching golf games, and gets rookie Scottie into the thick of it early.
Europe have a more daunting task. There are only five strong drivers in the European 12, and if you remove rookie Hovland, I expect captain Harrington to install Rahm, McIlroy, Casey and Garcia as their even hole drivers to lead each pair. Short hitting Fitzpatrick and rookie Wiesberger may struggle to get a look in here. I think it might pan out like this:
Rahm / Hovland
McIlroy / Lowry (I believe Lowry was picked specifically to play with his old Irish junior sparring partner McIlroy)
Garcia / Poulter
Casey / any of the English contingent - Fleetwood probably favourite
I think this will be Europe's strongest format, due to the precision with which they can plan, whereas American egos and lack of clarity in preparation tend to get in the way. If they don't have the better of this 8-point set, they will almost certainly lose the Ryder Cup.
Preview - Fourballs
Eight more games will be in the fourball format, where each team fields a pair and all four players play their own ball, the team's best score counting for that hole. This means that you can team someone going on the all out attack with someone else playing more steadily. America I think will look like this:
Spieth / Thomas
Morikawa / Schauffele / Cantlay (any two from these three)
Johnson / Berger OR Koepka / Berger
Finau / DeChambeau
The Johnson / Koepka / DeChambeau triangle of menace is what is going to cause the USA problems in this Ryder Cup. Johnson and Koepka, former friends and fourball partners, ended the loss in 2018 having a punch up in the team room, and apparently no longer speak. Koepka and DeChambeau have had a well publicised feud this year. None of the three can possibly play with each other, so depending on how things pan out you can expect them to partner Finau, Berger and Scheffler in some combination, with only two of them out there at a time so as not to disrupt the more likeable pairings above. Poor old Tony Finau, by all accounts the nicest man on the team, is going to end up going around with some real stinking blokes.
Europe are blessed with a few more options in fourballs than they have in foursomes. I expect Rahm and McIlroy to play every session no matter what, but there are ways they could mix things up and rest some of their older legs in this format. For example, if they wanted to give Casey or Garcia a game off, you might see:
Rahm / Hovland
McIlroy / Lowry
Westwood / Wiesberger
Fleetwood / Hatton
This format suits America more, but Europe will be looking to share the points or better if they can, and go into the Sunday singles at least level.
Preview - Singles
This is where America should have a clear advantage. Unlike in the pairs formats where Europe can play to their strengths and avoid their weaknesses, in the singles there is no hiding place. A lot will depend on the scoreboard going into the singles session, and the course setup that results. If the USA are in front, you can expect them to make it a pitch and putt, with flags in the middle of greens and easy birdies on offer. If USA are chasing from behind, they will need to make it as long as they possibly can, and so try to expose the weaker European players like Fitzpatrick and Wiesberger.
The European order will be crucial in this respect. A clever US captain would not mind losing a couple of points to Rahm and whoever if he can nail the weaker Europeans, traditionally found at the middle to end of the order. As a result, I would expect Harrington to deploy an unusual order in an attempt to avoid this and find matchups like English, Berger or Scheffler for his weaker players. Whatever he does, it will be a tall order for Europe to win this session.
Selections
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Given all I have said above, there are five (well, actually six) bets which I find enticing for this week's matches. Some of them are contradictory, but I think all are logical and represent value in a very difficult market.
Winner: Europe 2/1. There are many routes to victory for the US and fewer for Europe, but I believe there is a very plausible one of the latter that may well play out. 1. There is some disharmony in the US team, who have spent almost two weeks at the venue, and captain Stricker proves too nice a man to be able to sort it out. Some have overthought things, while others are just dickheads. The team's brains are frazzled, and pairings are compromised as a result. 2. Captain Harrington, in the great tradition of European captains, promotes a relaxed atmosphere among his strong mix of characters, producing a team that is not over-prepared and has nothing to lose. 3. Europe's relative lack of options plays to their advantage in the pairs matches, with everyone knowing their roles. Stricker tinkers after a disappointing Friday, but the heat is on his players. 4. Europe take a narrow lead into the Sunday singles, and then the wind kicks up, as it is presently forecast to do. This brings players like Fleetwood, Westwood and Lowry into play, and neutralises several Americans. Europe tie the singles 6-6 and hang on for victory.
Correct score: USA 18-10 Europe, 16/1. If one runs through another scenario, one finds what is I believe a value selection, even if I think Europe to win represents the outright trophy value. In this world, the Americans, bolstered by six world class rookies untroubled by recent American failures, pepper the easy-placed flagsticks with a barrage of birdies from the first morning. They win each day 5-3 despite some European fight in the foursomes, as the Europeans are unable to touch the US when they play their own balls. In the singles, it becomes a rout, with the monstrous par fives playing into American hands and an 8-4 session hammering feeding a joint record victory total.
Top Event Rookie: Shane Lowry 15/2. As stated above, I believe Lowry has been selected to partner McIlroy and if this partnership goes well, I can see him playing 4 or even 5 times. Many of his rivals in this market - most of them highly-ranked Americans like Morikawa, Cantlay and Schauffele - will rest up for form and fatigue reasons. Europe have no such luxury.
Top points scorer / to score 5 points: Jordan Spieth 11/1 & 50/1. Spieth is the golden child and unless there is some kind of disaster, I expect him to play all five matches for the US, four of them paired with Justin Thomas. Spieth loves Whistling Straits (he finished 2nd to Jason Day in the PGA here in 2015, the last time big time golf visited here) and has been back to glorious madcap form this season, albeit admittedly less so in recent weeks. However, I expect him to be very tough to beat for the Europeans, even if there are problems for his team elsewhere.
Day 2 winner: USA 11/10. For some reason, at time of writing on Skybet, USA are 4/5 to win Friday and 11/10 to win Saturday. Each day features the same type of matches, and the USA have a deeper squad and younger legs, so I don't really understand why this is. There is a slightly stiffer wind forecast, but that alone would not be worth that kind of odds shift.
Top European points: Sergio Garcia 11/1. Rahm and McIlroy lead this market, but in the event either has a quiet time of it, Garcia represents the outstanding value. Garcia may be a captain's pick but he is a key player for Europe, not only being the record points scorer in the Ryder Cup for a reason, but also still being one of their best 4 drivers of the ball and therefore someone that Harrington will need to lean heavily on. I see Garcia playing all five games if things go well for him, so 11/1 seems value in this arena.