The Betting Thread

[Jimmy Floyd]

Zurich Classic

This is a weird tournament. Played in New Orleans and slapped in the down part of the schedule between Masters and PGA, it's played in a very unusual 'pairs' format, so rather than a player you're betting on a team of two. They play two days of foursomes (alternate shot) and two days of fourball (all play their own ball). It's quite fun in terms of seeing who on tour is mates with whom, and you do get some quite weird pairings at times but otherwise I never really know what to make of it. The winners get most of the usual winning perks (2 year card, money, Fedex points) but not the Masters invite. I've plumped for 5 teams ranging from the top to much further down the market.

Cantlay & Schauffele 7/1
Homa & Gooch 28/1
Van Rooyen & Clark 60/1
NeSmith & Seiffert 90/1
Garnett & Stallings 125/1

Gran Canaria Open

The European Tour starts a three week stay in the Canary Islands (two weeks in Tenerife follow this event). The course will be new to everyone - expect, perhaps, tournament host Rafa Cabrera Bello and a few who may have played it on the local Spanish circuit. Wind and sun can be expected, it'll be a classic resort layout. The field is a bog standard European Tour effort although bolstered a touch by a few higher profile players like Cabrera Bello, Eddie Pepperell, recent winner Rozner, and aeroplane cabin groper/urinater Thorbjorn Olesen.

Dubuisson 33/1
Crocker 45/1
Otaegui 55/1
Lemke 66/1
Levy 100/1
Mansell 200/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair like Mansell a lot more than Coral do.

He's only at 126.

Guessing steer clear at that price.

[Jimmy Floyd]

These are all from Sky Bet. I'd take 175. Not 150.

[Baz]

Ben Coley has also tipped Mansell.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He was who tipped 4 of the same guys last week, but tbh he is a great golf writer and tipster so I'm honoured if the computer occasionally comes up with the same as him. However it hates all his other picks for Gran Canaria. I'll be interested to see what he thinks about New Orleans. He and Steve Palmer are the two must-reads.

Sully is a classic example of someone who is a great match for this tournament using qual methods, but using the slightly more quant approach that I do he loses appeal. That isn't to say that often those guys don't win, but it's all playing the percentages and the odds.

[Lofty]

Given someone has been copying your posts and putting them on reddit I wouldn't be surprised if someone is touting the computer's work as their own somewhere.

[Baz]

Where’s that?


(It’s not me.)

[Jimmy Floyd]

Someone took one from the super league thread and did so yesterday.

[Manc]

I nominate Lofty. It's a bold move, but one a wolf must have in his locker.

[Lofty]

Let's just say the only things I post about on Reddit, I am confident Jim isn't interested in.

[Baz]

r/iamameme and r/NFLGB

[-james-]

/r/BIGTITTYGOTHGF imo

[Jimmy Floyd]

Gran Canaria Open

Dubuisson 33/1
Crocker 45/1
Otaegui 55/1
Lemke 66/1
Levy 100/1
Mansell 200/1

Lemke seems to have dropped out so we're down to five (hopefully will be a void situation).

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Skybet and Betfair say as long as they haven't teed off the bet is void.

Seems he was pulled from the Austrian Open due to Covid and I guess he is still recovering/isolating.

[Baz]

365 refunded my stake

[Lofty]

/r/BIGTITTYGOTHGF imo

Actually correct

[Jimmy Floyd]

Falling short with 4 pairs in the top 20 but no one placing here, I suppose I used up all my luck last week. We go again.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Really thought they'd all place.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Valspar Championship

We're now fully into the post-Masters lull, with another 3 weeks before the next major. Wells Fargo next week is a bigger draw, but this one is sponsored by paint coatings. In my mind, this is one of the most vanilla, nondescript events on the PGA Tour - played at Innisbrook somewhere near Tampa, the course is OK and tends to suit the nudgers of this world rather than the big hitters, but looking back over previous editions, I really can't remember much at all. Paul Casey is the double reigning champion here and returns looking for a hat-trick. Dustin Johnson also appears, as does my mate 'JT', but otherwise most of the bigger names are giving this a swerve. I'm backing a couple of Europeans who look as classy as anyone.

Hovland 20/1
Hatton 28/1
Streelman 60/1
Hoge 100/1
Moore 125/1
Long 150/1

Tenerife Open

After a barren week last week we hop from one Canary Island to another, with covid keeping them in one place for longer stretches of time. The field is not terribly different to last week, with a handful of additions and a couple heading to the States. The European Tour hasn't been to Tenerife since 1995 and even then it was on a different golf course, so clues are in short supply. From what I can tell, like last week it looks quite short and open, so should be a birdie fest with wind possibly the only defence.

Canter 40/1
Burmester 50/1
Meronk 80/1
Angles 80/1
Laporta 200/1
Broberg 250/1

all e/w

[Baz]

B365 doesn’t know who Steve Stricker is, so hopefully he doesn’t win.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I presume he's WD'd, although there's no announcement, as the alternates have all moved up one.

I will whitewash history and replace him with Ryan Moore 125/1.

[Lofty]

I went for Straka instead, close enough

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hatton (and Straka, for that matter) are WD with covid. The old beast is back to fuck me up.

EDIT: Hatton out, adding Scheffler 28/1.

[Waffdon]

Man City at evens

You’re getting 8/11 for PSG not to lose. That’s mental

[Don]

I'll follow you in on PSG as I need something to offset having to cheer for Neymar.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair are horrendous at dealing with Golfers withdrawing.

I had to message them twice to void the bet Stricker and now I have the most useless agent trying to void Hatton's bet.

He initially said Hatton wasn't withdrawing and sent me a Flashscore link to which I sent him links from the BBC and PGATour and now he's entered my Bet ID wrong twice, telling me it's a bet for Laporta.

He clearly didn't copy/paste and has just entered the numbers but put them in the wrong order.

Edit: Now claiming it's already been voided despite still showing as open in my bets...

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you follow PGA Tour Communications (I think it is) on twitter they instantly tweet out the withdrawals/field changes, and I think the European Tour do the same in Europe. Betfair must be completely useless as SkyBet immediately voided for me. Whoever normally runs a golf market would be well aware of this stuff so you probably just got a work experience idiot.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The company/whoever runs the markets know as they instantly take the golfer out (which means you can't cash out) but unless you pester them they seem to take fucking ages to actually void any bets.

The guy I got today in the live chat was absolutely a work experience idiot.

[Manc]

You're obviously on a list with that ROI. They'll be trying to get rid.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

[Manc]

That won't look good out of context.

[Baz]

Bet365 for life. Every month they add to my Rewards4Racing balance, just for placing bets, which I’ll likely never use.

[Boydy]

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

Going to an actual bookies shop?

Are they open again yet?

[-james-]

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

Single digit stakes?

[Kikó]

Yeah low stakes means you'll be ok.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Even more 4D chess genius. I just haven't bet some weeks. Missed at least 2 winners. The thrill is in being right.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Burmester and Meronk looking good in Tenerife with Angles (shame he wobbled today), Canter and Laporta not far off the pace.

Hovland and Scheffler aren't far off the pace in America and they still have a few holes (more so Hovland) left today.

Could be a nice day tomorrow.

[Kikó]

Both Burnmester and Maronk have started well this morning. The former in the lead with Maronk in third. Mon the boys.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Was able to watch some of the early holes and they were both playing excellent stuff.

Burmester could have been out of sight already though tbh.

[Kikó]

He's 3 clear of Meronk with 7 holes to play so looking decent either way.

[Kikó]

Great 1-3* Jimmy. Well played mate.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Banging work again.

[Baz]

Fantastic. Thanks a lot.

[Lofty]

Legend Jim

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cheers all, didn't get to see any of it today but loved the result.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hovland is ripping it up here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think CNN are calling this as a place for Hovland, in which case we're looking at a 2021 stats line of:

156 golfers backed
6 winners
24 places

289pts invested
594.27pts returned
RoI +105.63%

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wells Fargo Championship

With two more events before the next major, the first is this event at Quail Hollow, a venue which has coughed up two McIlroy wins in the past and generally (but not exclusively) tends to favour the longer hitters. Fat Bryson duly emerges from his protein-shake lair, as indeed do Jon Rahm and McMince himself, who hasn't been seen since a dreadful Masters. There will be a time to side with Rory to emerge from his slump, but I don't think this is it. Instead, in a slightly unusual staking plan for me, I'm sticking rigidly to just four of his rivals towards the top of the market. I haven't yet had a win from Tony Finau - no one has - but he has made me place profit and joins two of his Ryder Cup chasing countrymen as well as my guy Joaco on a shrunken list this week. I've looked high and low for value further down the market, but for once I'm just not seeing it.

Simpson 20/1
Finau 25/1
Reed 25/1
Niemann 28/1

Canary Islands Championship

As has become common on the European Tour during Covid, this is a second tournament on the same course and after last week's birdie fest it will surely be more of the same this week. We found a sixth winner of the year with long-hitting Dean Burmester, and he's around the same profile statistically as surprise second place man and Indiana Jones nemesis Nicolai von Dellingshausen, for whom that finish could be a career-changing effort. The golf course therefore clearly suits a certain sort of player and I've asked the computer to find me some more. Perhaps surprisingly, off the back of a nicely-paying third place it once again churns out the name of Poland's finest, Adrian Meronk, among others.

Meronk 35/1
Crocker 35/1
Veerman 50/1
Jordan 60/1
Oriol 100/1
Pulkkanen 300/1

all e/w

[SincereTheRebel]

So this works by putting e/w bets on each of the golfers or add them all in a acca and e/w it all?

[Waffdon]

Just do them individually and select ‘ew’.