1. Pretty vanilla par 4 but with trouble lurking if you miss the fairway, and a variety of pins. Aiming for the middle is never a bad play. If you get greedy your round gets off to a bad start.
2. Downhill par 5. The tee shot is important. A good one gives you a strong chance at birdie or eagle. Miss left and you're in the shit. The Sunday right funnel pin is great fun.
3. Short par 4 with a devilishly tough green. You can birdie this if you play it sensibly and make a putt, but you can also get into trouble if you bite too hard.
4. Tough par 3. You always take a par on this and 6.
5. Dullish par 4 but with a big mound at the front of the green which makes life interesting.
6. Another tough long par 3 with a big slope on the green.
7. A good drive gives you a strong chance of birdie here, particularly to the front pins. However if you get in the trees you can shoot anything.
8. Torrid uphill par 5. The toughest of the par fives, I would guess. Played very long last year, but birdies still in play.
9. Again a tee shot between trees which then opens out for the approach. The green has three tiers and tilts sharply from back to front. Spin the ball too much and you can end up rolling back 40 yards down the hill to a bogey-laden grave.
10. The start of the back nine and an incredibly hard hole. The vast middle bunker reins in the big hitters, while there is desperate trouble left and right off the tee. Also a very undulating green. Par a great score here.
11. Traditionally the hardest hole on the course. Tee shot is threaded through trees and then water lurks front left of the green. Many will bail out into 'Larry Mize country', the swale front right that avoids the H2O but still gives you a nasty up and down to make your par.
12. Golden Bell, the short par 3 where dreams go to die. The correct shot is middle between the bunkers all four days, but so many are suckered to a watery grave, and if you go long into the flowerbeds, good luck.
13. Azalea, one of the best holes in all of golf. Tee shot can be missed left (stream) or right (trees). If you hit a good one you have a fairly simple mid iron in and possible eagle chance. If you don't, a large number beckons. This hole favours the right to left draw shape (or fade for lefties), which is often (misleadingly in my view) extrapolated to the whole course favouring right to left players.
14. A par 4 with no bunkers. The defence is in the fiercely sloping green. The back left Sunday pin is a nightmare and tests your lag putting.
15. The last par five, with history of great drama, from Seve going marine in '86 to Nicklaus's 'life in the old bear yet' eagle the same year and Garcia seizing control with eagle in '17. Pond in front of the green and another pond long, with another tricky undulating green.
16. Dramatic par 3 with funnel pin Sunday leading to holes in one and all sorts of excitement. The water short left is rarely in play but still worries the eye. This was the scene of Tiger's famous chip in 2005.
17. This used to have 'Ike's Tree', a big obstacle which Eisenhower wanted cut down. He never got his wish but a storm did the job a few years ago. It's a tricky approach shot to a difficult green, four is always a good score here.
18. If you avoid the trees right and the famous bunker on the left, this isn't a difficult hole, but you have to find the right part of the green or life becomes very tricky.
D.Johnson 7/1. Reigning champ, and world number one. Of late, he has had some dodgy driving days and some equally indifferent ones with the putter. Slightly odd to commit to the Texas Open on Friday and then pull out of it Monday. I'm not taking him at these odds, even though his game is a cheat code when dialled in.
DeChambeau 9/1. Even if the computer rated his chances, I couldn't possibly spend 4 days of the Masters, such a pleasant time of year, wanting this cunt to win. Luckily, the computer absolutely does not rate his chances. No form around here at all - my theory, as stated last time, is that without the greens books (used on Tour but banned/non-existent at Augusta) he can't work out the putting surfaces.
Spieth 9/1. Cut dramatically in to single figures off the back of his comeback win in Texas, his first for four years. Back in form he may be, and great record at Augusta he may have, but these odds are absolutely dreadful. Computer has him at, like, 30s. Swerve hard.
Thomas 10/1. I quite fancy him (not in that way, he'll be pleased to learn) after some improved form of late and a fine win at THE PLAYERS, but he always has an unexpected shocker in him. A pretty likely winner but I've just argued myself out of taking him and in favour of taking the next guy.
Rahm 11/1. The computer adores him always (makes him favourite for this), he is unquestionably a great player, and yet whenever I back him it ends in failure. He has also had a baby over the weekend and named it Kepa Cahill Rahm which suggests that even his child's name is an attempt to troll me into backing him. And you know what? It's going to work. There is no escape.
McIlroy 14/1. McMince has been struggling of late, mincing around the course with small dick energy rather than his usual throbbing boner. The focus is usually on him here as he bids to complete the Grand Slam, but this time he's more under the radar. Has just begun working with English coach Pete Cowen. Sometimes the biggest prize comes when you least expect it. I just think it might be a hair too soon.
Cantlay 16/1. Miserable Pat Cant has a dodgy back, akin to Ledley King's knee - he has to have 4 hours of massage or something before every round. His game, though, is undeniably all-round fantastic and he's been in strong form all season. Computer thinks him a stronger shot than 16/1.
Schauffele 18/1. Has lost his way a little in the last couple of months and lacks a bit of killer instinct at the best of times.
Koepka 22/1. Wasn't in the field when I started doing this and may yet pull out. Just off surgery and I keep seeing pictures of him proposing on a beach. Can't see him winning this.
Morikawa 25/1. Lovely straight hitter, perhaps too straight for this course where you sometimes have to sneak it around corners to dodge trees or find pins. Not sure he yet has the nous for Augusta.
Reed 25/1. His ball-striking has been pretty dodgy for a while now as he bounces from one cheating scandal to the next. His mental wife and her secret twitter account @useGolfFACTS seem to do most of the hard PR yards. I kind of want him to win and so lock up a Ryder Cup place, as the universe needs him there with all his team mates hating him. 2018 champion but I doubt he'll double up this year.
Hovland 28/1. Copy-paste from Morikawa, but instead of shot shape his kryptonite is short game.
Finau 28/1. I'm backing Tony. You'll just have to trust me on this. He's going to win a tournament one day, so why not the biggest one of the lot? You can't be as good at golf as he is and not win eventually. Why not here? He contended in 2019 and the year before with a broken rib or something. Putting always the question mark with him.
Westwood 28/1. It's a pity, as Lee has had multiple runs here and I'm normally bang up for giving him a shot each way given this course has such an experience tariff. But this year he's played too well and his odds are too short. Next year!
Simpson 30/1. Not had it this year and I can't be doing with the God Squad generally.
Smith 30/1. I love this guy and his stupid mullet, but he's a fraction skinny here. Think I had a place off him at big odds one year, a rare Augusta success for me.
Berger 30/1. DB straight vibin. Computer rates his game for this. I have my slight doubts over whether his temperament lasts the four days of a major.
Casey 30/1. Mr Cool Beans and Johnny Long Socks have already produced one victory for me this year. Computer hates him, though, at this price, which I find surprising as he's in solid form and has done well around here before, but who am I to argue with the big man upstairs.
Im 30/1. Love Sungjae, plays every week and doesn't give a fuck. Tied second last time with Smith, not sure he'll repeat that.
Matsuyama 33/1. I've been off the Hideki cocaine train for a while now, and am not ready to jump back on yet. Strikes it like Godzilla but normally hands about 3-4 shots back to the field with the putter.
Scheffler 33/1. Computer doesn't like him for this, and the computer is normally a huge fan of his, so it's a pass from me.
Hatton 33/1. I backed him here last year which was a big miss. Computer isn't too down on him but I've not seen much in the majors yet. Five top tens, none of them here. We'll revisit.
Fitzpatrick 33/1. Everything points to him being good around Augusta. As yet, in six appearances, he has not been. I'd want 50s and rock hard greens to be tempted. Perhaps a more likely candidate for Sandwich in July.
Fleetwood 33/1. I have a bit of a timeform squiggle against Tommy's name unfortunately. Don't trust him under pressure.
Garcia 35/1. Former winner, striking it nicely at the moment, and putting with his eyes closed. A good finish could propel him towards the Ryder Cup team, but computer not buying it.
Day 40/1. Slow-moving Aussie sicknote who should have won here in the early to mid 2010s, but I think it may now have passed him by.
Niemann 45/1. I wanted to back him last time before he tested positive for Covid, and he's on my hit list here again. Doe-eyed young wizard from Chile who has been in great form basically ever since that positive test and unlucky not to win somewhere. His first appearance here as a pro but he played it as an amateur in 2018. Computer very much on board.
Watson 50/1. Wrong-in-the-head dickcheese from Bagdad, Florida who has won this twice with a pink driver. Another member of the God Squad, as well as a member of the Golf Boys (never to be forgotten) - in fact, with Fowler having slid off the world and not qualified this year, he's the only Golf Boy left at the Masters. Went into the wilderness for a bit after inexplicably moving to use a pink Volvik ball. Now playing better, but not well enough.
Scott 50/1. Smooth-swinging, smooth-talking Aussie, unquestionably the best-looking man in golf and a former champion. Known for his sweet move and putting woes. Not this time.
Oosthuizen 50/1. Major champion and has nearly won here a couple of times, but the fact that a player as good as him has never won in America after all this time is a bit of an issue.
Rose 60/1. Avoiding JR like the plague. Dodgy back and no real form for some time now. Needs something to happen to make the Ryder Cup team. Bit touch and go in that regard.
Ancer 66/1. Faux-Mexican pocket rocket who was in the final pair with DJ in 2020 and buckled hard. Not yet a winner on tour and I'm not convinced by his bottle.
Conners 66/1. Canadian gorgeous ball-striker who has paid out handsomely for me recently, but 60/1 a bit light against this field. Putting is also a bit of a question mark.
Zalatoris 66/1. Young rising star who has impossibly thin legs (seriously, look at them). Qualified via world ranking even though he's not technically a full PGA Tour member yet. Unlikely to have played a round here before this week, so no play from me.
Horschel 66/1. I wondered why he was so long after recent big performances. It's because his record here is dreadful: never in the top 16.
Kuchar 70/1. Has come flying in from 100s. Well known for stiffing his Mexican caddie. Everyone seems to agree he's in the top five biggest pricks on Tour, along with Bryson and Grayson Murray.
Wallace 70/1. Was 150/1 when I first started working on this preview. A strong performance in Texas has halved his odds. Makes too many mistakes for my liking. Like many Europeans, will want some big Ryder Cup points here.
Kokrak 80/1. I can't stand his face.
Harman 80/1. Lefties go well here and Harman's in decent form, but 70/1 is too short, much like Harman is, both in height and driving distance. Mike Weir winning in 2003 is a comp but, jeez, that was 2003.
This shit was number one.
Homa 80/1. Love Max. Very nice man. Would want 100s to back him.
Molinari 80/1. Contended here two years ago, fucked it, and has disappeared ever since. Recently moved from London to LA - not quite sure why - and although there have been small signs of a return to form, it looks a tough gig to get back into the Ryder Cup team, where he won all five matches last time.
English 80/1. He's one of these good ol' southern boys who walks around chewing tobacco. Had a purple patch in autumn, not been so good since winning Hawaii in January.
Poulter 80/1. Good old Poults. You have to salute his longevity at this point, for someone who wins as little as he does and strolls around with the ego he has. Has made 14 of 15 cuts here, which is a pretty good record. He will want to be closer to the Ryder Cup team even though I think him an almost certain captain's pick.
Leishman 80/1. Had a horrible period post lockdown. Back to some mild form now but nothing to suggest a title run is in the offing here.
Lowry 80/1. Flattered to deceive since his Open win. I think he has the game to go well at Augusta, but not this time.
Wolff 90/1. Completely out of sorts recently. Having life problems, they say.
Perez 100/1. Clean-cut Frenchman now making waves on the world stage. His walk really annoys me for some reason. Seems a Ryder Cup certainty if he carries on this way. Don't trust his short game for Augusta.
Mickelson 100/1. I'm really tired of him now, as with every passing year he slips into being more of a parody of himself. Far too short even at a venue where he has won three times. He might have one more glory run in him here, like Couples did, but I'd want better form coming in.
Bezuidenhout 100/1. I love backing this guy because he's a true fighter, putts like God, and has a great underdog life story - drank rat poison when he was a toddler, nearly died, and to this day speaks with a severe stutter because of it. Computer not a fan here though.
Kim 100/1. Shrug.
Frittelli 110/1. Bespectacled South African who weirdly came 5th here in 2020. Not sure he will this time.
Kisner 125/1. I thought this felt long but the computer wants even longer, which isn't a good sign for another of the tobacco-chewing southern states crew. Probably doesn't hit it far or well enough, despite his fierce attitude.
Willett 125/1. Always a hero in our hearts for lolling his way past Spieth to win this in 2016. Hope he properly lives it up each year in green jacket land. Asks Jack Nicklaus if he can have his spare roast potato at the Champions Dinner. Goes for a midnight dip in Ike's Pond. That sort of thing.
Ortiz 125/1. A true legend of the computer after his 125/1 win in Houston last year. The fact that he's now the same for this despite being a debutant tells you that he's played well since, too. Goes a bit under the radar as he isn't an American college hero (they are so obsessed with college over there, it's bizarre).
Champ 125/1. Bit of a freak show long hitter, but he's had no game for months, so this is definitely too short.
Woodland 125/1. US Open winner but has been mostly injured since. Can't see it.
Na 125/1. Christ I love Kevin, with his gimmicky shite and 66/1 win for me in Hawaii. Been here nine times and never inside the top ten. Suspect it's too long for him.
Macintyre 125/1. Qualified recently via world ranking, one of the last to get in. Very likeable lefty with a distinctive western Scottish accent who hits it far enough for Augusta, but to back him each way I'd want him to have played the course before.
Palmer 125/1. Bit too vanilla as a golfer to do well at Augusta. If he ever fluked a major, could see it being a US Open.
Munoz 150/1. Had a good start here last time and then evaporated on Sunday. Computer not fond at all.
Jones 150/1. Got in with a recent win. Only played this once, which surprised me, and missed the cut. You'd want longer to back him.
Z.Johnson 1575/1. A past winner but that was a weird year, and 14 years ago. He's far too short to do well now.
Todd 200/1. Odd-looking Georgian who had crashed out of the game but is now back. Odds about right.
Pan 200/1. Him finishing in a place at the 2020 Masters was insane. Possibly the worst course profile fit there is; short hitter, little course experience. Has done nothing since either.
Griffin 200/1. This is a long price for Lanto. He's a pretty unsubtle golfer to say the least, but he hits it far enough to get in the right spots here, so if he has a good ball-striking and putting week I don't see why he'd be too far away from the top ten. Had a debut sighter of the course last year.
Wiesberger 250/1. Austrian who has been sort of decent for a good while now, and qualifies for Augusta again. Rarely contends in America.
Schwartzel 250/1. Past winner. Was lucky then. Has had it now.
Hughes 250/1. Second appearance for this Canadian. Some signs of form but I'm not convinced even at this possibly inflated price.
Stenson 300/1. No idea how he's this short. Has gone off a cliff and heading for the glue factory.
Laird 300/1. Scotsman in America since forever. Qualified via a win in Vegas. First major since 2017, can't see him figuring.
Thompson 300/1. Qualified with a win in the Twin Cities last summer. One of the lower profile American players.
Walker 400/1. Still qualifies via his PGA win years ago, but I think this might be his final outing. Hasn't done anything in the game for about four years.
Cink 400/1. I've only been to watch one major live, which was the 2009 Open, where this man stole all our dreams. He is now 47 and has his rather dorky-looking son on the bag. Qualified out of nowhere with a win in the autumn and having played this tournament on 17 previous occasions, with a best of 3rd and only missing the cut twice, I don't see why I wouldn't have a penny or two on him at this astronomical price. Even the computer agrees.
Langer 500/1. Sly old fox from Augsburg who made the cut last year at the age of 62. Now he's 63. Winner in 1985 and 1993.
Gay 500/1. Isn't gay, despite some of the shirts he wears.
Swafford 500/1. Another good ol' southern boy, possibly the goodest ol' of the lot. Walks around like the entitled son of a plantation owner, which I suppose is apt for this venue. Will not win.
Streb 500/1. Pops up every 5-7 years with a random win. Both his wins have been in Georgia, but not this Georgia.
Herman 600/1. Big friend of Trump (though aren't they all). No form at all.
Strafaci 600/1. The first of the amateurs. Won last year's US Amateur. Said to have a knobhead dad who is also his caddie. Google images has him looking like your standard American college twat.
Couples 600/1. Remains the coolest cat in town, even though he's now 61 and basically no part of his body works anymore.
Weir 1000/1. Old lefty Canadian who won 18 years ago. It feels like more.
Singh 1000/1. Fijian sociopath who won in 2000. A modern great and sued the PGA Tour just because he could. I was always a fan.
Osborne 1500/1. Runner up to Strafaci in the US Am. The market has him down as 'Charles', whereas I thought his name was Ollie. I'll leave that mystery unsolved.
J.Long 1500/1. The third and final amateur this year. He's ours, or just 'the Amateur Champion', because we in Britain don't need to specify. He's from Bristol.
Olazabal 2500/1. Spanish stylist who won this twice in the 90s and used to go around slaying Americans in the Ryder Cup with his old mate Seve. Widely considered to have one of the greatest short games of all time. He always seems a bit melancholy to me without his old buddy around. Also has arthritis.
Mize 3000/1. Won this in 1987, which is insane. Golf is amazing for that kind of ability for people to span eras.
Woosnam 5000/1. 1991 winner from Wales.
Lyle 5000/1. 1988 winner. Bad threads.
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
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