Originally Posted by
Jimmy Floyd
I'm now fairly confident the UK cases peak was on 4 January or thereabouts. That would project a (national) hospitalisations peak of between now and a week's time, and deaths peak of between 1 and 2 weeks' time.
Now we just have to keep vaccinating, keep locked down for a bit, and keep the borders shut so that no other dodgy variants get in.
Coming out of lockdown is harder to predict but I think you can peg it to whenever daily deaths are in low double figures (sub 40, maybe) and it's been established that cases haven't picked up again post-vaccine rollout. I would guess mid-March we might start to see some movement. The Tory headbangers will be wanting it ended much earlier than that, which is a bit of a problem because they are fanatics and will draw out the other fanatics (people who love lockdown and don't want it to end) to scream at them, which will be another frustrating month or so of discourse.