Let the record show that I have nominated and voted for every wolf so far, as well as being the absolute LEGEND that discovered the first 2 with no Seer powers. See how this man. This boy attempts to take credit for my greatness.
Let the record show that I have nominated and voted for every wolf so far, as well as being the absolute LEGEND that discovered the first 2 with no Seer powers. See how this man. This boy attempts to take credit for my greatness.
SvN must die. #TeamSpikey
pepe's still a cunt tho
Aight.
I nominate SvN (second nomination)
I'm a twit
I guess this is what happens when people start to lose interest. It seems noone can be bothered with any real analysis, so you end up with people just following "He's acting wolfy" as justification.
Put me out of my misery.
This round is obviously Baz. If it turns out he’s been trolling us again and is a villager, then we regroup.
Here's one final attempt at trying to make sense of what's left.
Remaining players
- Baz
- Browning
- mugbull
- Offshore Toon
- Pepe
- SvN
- Spikey M
- The Merse
We know Spikey is probably the doctor. Given how much Offshore has been siding with him for most of the game (and leapt to his defence when I implied there was a slim chance he was a wolf), there's a good chance he's the second doctor. I was keeping that to myself, but why bother.
I know I'm a villager, so that leaves the following candidates for the final wolf:
- Baz
- Browning
- mugbull
Offshore Toon- Pepe
SvNSpikey M- The Merse
Baz
All over the place. Random accusations with no attempt at justifying them, somehow thinking there are 8 wolves (?!) and that there are 4 left. Probably not him, because it would be overly reckless play. His first post in the thread was:
His behaviour is pretty much the same as last time he played, so I'm going to say he's probably clean.
Baz- Browning
- mugbull
Offshore Toon- Pepe
SvNSpikey M- The Merse
Browning
Browning is a good player, who has experience of being a wolf, so I don't expect his posts to reveal much. But let's look anyway.
He voted for Mahow to make it 6-4. That doesn't rule out him being a wolf - niko voted for Mahow early, and as I've said before, it's common for wolves to vote for other wolves in early rounds to try and establish some trust.
He didn't make any other relevant posts until he voted for Don. Again, this was an important vote, because it made it 4-3-3 to Don. That's two votes against wolves that are potentially tide-changing.
He voted for Baz the next round. Not much to draw from that, as Lofty and igor (both villagers) ending up being lynched.
His next vote was for thommo, again a significant vote - made it 6-4 in favour of our seer being lynched. What does seem clear here is that Browning always seems to time his votes at pivotal moments. However, the next post is significant, in my opinion.
This was RIGHT after thommo was lynched. He's the first person to bring up niko. He was also the first to them nominate him. I think this rules Browning out as a wolf possibility - if he was a wolf, there'd be no need to be the first person to push towards niko (even though others probably would). The safer play (especially when you've already lost 2 wolves) would be to wait and see if others pick up on it, and then pile in.
I'm satisfied that Browning is clean.
BazBrowning- mugbull
Offshore Toon- Pepe
SvNSpikey M- The Merse
mugbull
Seems to be made of teflon. Been up for a vote 4 times and not been lynched yet. How has that happened?
Similar to Baz, in that he's thrown around plenty of accusations without any real evidence or reasoning. His first post in the thread was odd:
A weird opener, regardless of whether he's a wolf or a villager. But I think it's just the signs of an inexperienced player - this is only his second game, as far as I know. I don't think the other more experienced wolves would let him post that, and I think he'd be a lot more cagey about what he posted (as he was last game).
His voting doesn't reveal much. Voted for Panda, but did try and move the attention towards Don towards the end of the vote. He voted for Mahow fairly early, and at a critical time (making it 5-2). He nominated and voted for Lofty, with what I think was fairly sound logic. Other votes seem fairly random. I'm 80% sure he's not a wolf.
BazBrowningmugbullOffshore Toon- Pepe
SvNSpikey M- The Merse
Pepe
I mentally ruled out Pepe as a possibility very early on because of his pivotal vote for Mahow, making it 6-2 and pretty much condemning him. But unlike muggers, he's a clever player and at this late stage, you can't rule out the possibility that they decided to sacrifice Mahow for Pepe's benefit. The writing was probably on the wall for Mahow at that stage, so it be a fairly good strategy.
Reading through his posts, if he's a wolf, he's playing a blinder. He's gone completely under the radar, hasn't really done anything controversial or posted much of real consequence. That could be due to time zones (as per his own reasoning, more than once).
This post stands out, and I'm not sure what to make of it.
He throws Taz in there for no real reason. There's also this:
On paper, this should go in his favour, but by this point the connection had already been made, and niko was almost certainly a goner.
There's something that isn't sitting right with me, and I don't think Pepe can be ruled out.
BazBrowningmugbullOffshore Toon- Pepe
SvNSpikey M- The Merse
The Merse
Finally, we come to Merse. He's another that has played plenty of times and has experience of being a wolf. He hasn't posted a great deal - only 20 posts in the thread, which is very unusual for him. He's usually quite involved. His first post of significance was:
He also pointlessly voted for Don in the first round when the scores were 0-9-6 (Don on 0). Crap attempt to mask himself as a villager if his votes were ever to come under scrutiny? Possibly - I'd have thought he knew better than that if he was a wolf.
He also voted for Mahow when he was pretty much already condemned. Same tactic as above perhaps? Making an inconsequential vote for a wolf so he looks clean when the spreadsheets come out?
His next vote was for Don, extending the lead from 5-3 to 6-3. Less suspicious than the previous two votes, but doesn't rule him out as a wolf.
Since then he's largely gone off the radar. His only other post was similar to the one I highlighted from Pepe, pointing the finger at niko when everyone else already had (with the added bonus of casting doubt on it):
The fact that Merse's posting slowed once the wolves were down by 2 is a big red flag for me. His pointless votes for Don and Mahow look like attempts to blend in with villagers while having no real consequence. My money is on Merse being the final wolf, and if not him, probably Pepe.
BazBrowningmugbullOffshore Toon- Pepe
SvNSpikey M- The Merse
I nominate The Merse (first nomination)
There were a couple things early on that made me shelve Merse into the clean pile (Downy soft!) but I forget what they were. Gonna go through the thread again to see if they still stand up.
I don't think eliminating Baz because he's playing the same way as before is the right move. His playstyle can be ported easily to different roles because it's low effort insanity
It's more the fact that he doesn't have any clue what he's doing or what's going on.
But there's always the possibility that he's bamboozled me. But you could say the same about any of the candidates, really. You've just got to work with the probabilities.
My nomination for Baz was based on the fact I feel like he's the only player (other than the wolf, if he's not the wolf) who could possibly nominate Spikey which would put our almost certain path to victory in trouble. I'm not convinced that Baz is the final wolf, but equally I'm concerned that his pointless finger pointing is a threat. If there's good evidence against another player, I would be happy to vote for them over Baz... we just need to be careful with what he does. Any more finger pointing at Spikey would need to be met with swift death.
But yes, I do tend to agree he just doesn't have a clue. I wonder what theories he has now he knows that whoever the wolf is, no one else is working with them.
SvN.
I shouldn't like it, because you try to incriminate me for no reason whatsoever, but still, commendable effort. Not sure that I would rule out Browning though. His record is basically the same as mine.
I nominate The Merse (second nomination)
What is the ballot right now?
The Merse - SvN - Baz
I can open the voting roughly now or wait?
The Merse - SvN - Baz
I'm happy with all outcomes here, but I'll be most gutted if it is Baz and I didn't listen to my gut and get rid of him. I just find it so weird that the minute I pointed out that the wolves couldn't win because they couldn't kill Spikey, he starts pointing the finger at Spikey immediately, and also at everyone else. It's probably too reckless to be a wolf play, so I don't blame people if they vote elsewhere, but maybe it was the final gambit of a desperate man.
The Merse - SvN - Baz
Basically the same as Browning. The wolves can't win, and Baz on the last few pages has struck me as the kind of guy who knows he's lost
I promise I’m a villager.
I'm a twit
The Merse - SvN - Baz
As above.
Just to confirm, are we having a vote today and another tomorrow, or slowing down for the weekend? I seem to recall doing the latter in previous games, but doesn't feel necessary here, unless the 5 non-voters are not able to vote?
If there are no other votes by 7pm, I'd suggest extending it by 24 hours. Weekends are always tricky.
The Merse - SvN - Baz
SvN's effort merits it.
The Merse - SvN - Baz
I know I’m a villager.
SvN has made a pretty good defence.
The Merse must die.
I'm a twit
The Merse - SvN - Baz
SVN is right to point out that Baz always comes across as a wolf, BUT, maybe he is actually a wolf.
It's 3-3. Are we gonna double lynch again, or are Offy/Merse gonna get a vote in? Merse, you wanna save yourself?
I'm a twit
Oh shit it's a double lynch.
Toggle Spoiler
And with his dying breath, Baz the villager whispers his last word into the wind...
Toggle Spoiler
I'm a twit
Baz getting lynched is what I live for.
I don't know what Baz expects given how he plays.
This is gonna go all the way, isn’t it
I nominate Pepe
Still trust SvN enough to follow his logic, but he’ll be next
The wolf hasn't killed yet.
Then he forfeits the round, surely? (We did without fucking notice you PLEB) Who hasn't been online? Go go go!
I mean, that much should be obvious. We had 2 non-voters and one of them is dead?
Time zone difference
I'm ending it.
Toggle Spoiler
Slightly premature, but fair. I was between Offy (for not voting) and Pepe as to who would have missed the kill, and if Offy was the Doctor then Spikey would have talked us away from him.... so yea.
That Wolf team has a lot of big names in the dirt.
Cheers Pleb.
I'm a twit
lol
The debrief on this would be pretty funny.
So, I'm sure you're all wondering about the triple doctor block.
We targetted Spikey as we assumed he was the seer (great work btw, Spikes) and he blocked the kill.
The wolves then asked me to ask Pleb if a doctor could protect the same person twice in a row he said no so we requested to take out Spikey again. 5 minutes before the deadline Pleb decided to change his mind and wouldn't allow us to change our kill. The third time the remaining wolves were just annoyed and thought it would be lol for a third block.
I take issue with the doctor role because it can make someone immortal (which is what happen to Spikey) and creates an unbalanced game but had he come straight out and said they can protect themselves we could have worked round that.
Also, Pleb was far too chatty in our NFL Fantasy Discord server.
This was my Day 1 prediction in the wolf lair:
Realistically I think Mahow and Taz are going to struggle to survive the game, I'm usually quite active in team spreadsheet and am likely to blow myself up at some point, so early strategy probably has to be to put Pepe into deep cover as our only hope of winning. Until he gets bumped for inactivity early doors.
Yeah, the doctor basically breaks the game. They should not be allowed to protect the same person twice in a row.
So I fucked up the doctor's role by telling the wolves not to pick a certain who kept protecting himself each and every round, in hindsight I should of allowed it to happen and not told him to stop targeting them so I'm truly sorry for that.
I should of made that a rule, I'll put it into place next time I ever host.
The hunter kill though took me by fucking surprise, I was adamant it was either a wolf or Spikey.
Yeah the optimal tactic is for one of the seers to out himself in round 1 and force the doctors to use their ability on him in return for relaying the seers' intel to the thread every round. With two doctors the wolves would have an insanely difficult time stopping that. I would say 1 doctor is more balanced than 2