Good luck stemming the tide once all the good doctors leave for greener pastures.
Good luck stemming the tide once all the good doctors leave for greener pastures.
Clearly they need to gas more badgers.
Biden now leading in Pennsylvania.
They might as well officially call it now.
Georgia having two run-offs in January for control of the senate is going to be mental.
Has anyone ever written a convincing CSA survives counterfactual? All the ones I've seen have it dying within ten years (and it couldn't have won the war to begin with), but I don't know if that's just wishful thinking.
The Confederacy would survive longer than that on cotton and tobacco exports to your country alone. Eventually they would fall apart though, mainly due to the fact that no one there had any idea how to organize an actual business or innovate in any way. The war they could've won in the same way guerrilla groups always win had they not suffered from their own inner states rights conflicts
The perception of this election is going to be so different than the reality of it:
Biden is going to win 306 Electoral College votes to 304 for Trump in 2016.
When provisional ballots are all counted, final margins are going to be sizable. Trump won 2016 from 75k votes in MI, PA, and WI. Biden will end up winning each of those by 150-250k.
D’s lost Hispanics!!!! Umm, they won them handily in CA, NV, AZ, NM .... well everywhere but Miami Dade County in Florida and Laredo is n Texas.
The polls will turn out to be in the margin of error everywhere but Florida and North Carolina .
And the brilliant politician Trump is going to manage to be only the 5th to lose a second term. The first to lose when his party didn’t lose down ballot. And the first to lose when Gallup’s simple “Are you better off than four years ago?” poll that they started 100 some years ago was over 50%. 60% say they were better off and he lost. He’s an abysmal politician in any category.
But the narrative will be: close, Hispanics go for R’s, polling doesn’t work, and he has great skill cause a small percent of people love him.
Godbless Mike for that post, that's the sort of clear headed and informed analysis every one needs.
Sounds to me like Trumpism succeeds in spite of Trump.
News stations (well, Sky News) really are crap at explaining the actual data.
Tell me what the current vote count is, what is left to count, and what the trend of mail-in votes suggests will will happen to that data. Instead they throw to some blonde bint stood in the middle of the road in Washington telling that that people in Roosborough County are rioting.
British news channels don't have the resources to do data stuff, nor the audience to justify it (even for our elections they barely do it). They tend to go in on human drama or whatever. It's easy to underestimate the weight of pointless money there is floating around in the US compared to other countries.
People are too thick to be receptive to 'data stuff'. It took me the best part of a decade to singel-handedly have xG up on MOTD and referred to by TV pundits and still I have to deal with the snide comments about my fetish for data and feet.
I think there is a Trump wing of the R party, a rural wing, and the Ryan / Chamber of Commerce wing. Republicans succeed (get universal control) when they can mobilize all three. They can win the Senate with one, and two can deliver the House but need all three for the Presidency or house. Question is if the Cottons, Hawleys, Cruz’s can pull in the Trump wing or do they just become non-voters.
Is there another celebrity floating around who could ape his stardust/charisma? Any sort of career politicians would surely lose a whole heap of the Trumpets.
The Rock, but I'm assuming he would go for the other team.
I don’t think Trumpism is successful even with Trump. You get about a 20-25% chance because you really energize 40% of the Republican base. So maybe you win by 75k votes over three states in a year the director of the FBI says he may have to investigate the opponent 10 days before the election. Outside of that people go “ooh look at the crowds.” But when do votes count more because you bought the merch?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/06/m...lan/index.html
Fox News, the cable channel that has been one of President Trump's most important supporters, has instructed its anchors not to call Joe Biden the "President-elect" when the network calls the race, according to two memos obtained by CNN Business.
The memos said that Fox should "stay away" from using the description, and instead say something Biden has "enough electoral votes to win the presidency."
The memos emphasized that the network should report moves by Trump's legal teams to challenge the results, despite legal analysts having dismissed potential challenges as having little to no merit.
Fox are whipped.
I didn't even think Trump and Fox were that in love now. I thought he was all bout the North Korea-style OANN channel.
I've purpousely avoided 99% of coverage because I couldn't take it but knowing Trump is watching every single second of this on on four different TVs is all I need.
Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?
That's the bit I don't get, there's more people protesting outside than there are counting, get a bunch of lads in and knock the rest out in an afternoon.
Some states were able to count the mail in votes 2 weeks before but a lot weren't which is why they have a huge backlog now and why it's taking so long.
Some of those mail ins can be counted by a machine, others can't, some are able to count 24/7, some aren't etc etc.
Some states seem to have a lot more red tape too.
Basically most states were seriously underprepared to deal with the obvious surge in mail in votes compared to previous elections.
Without the virus, how comfortably would Trump have won?
I think he would have won about ninety per cent of the vote, and it would only be that low because of the voter fraud.
Sounds about right.
Surely he's won about 90% of the LEGAL votes right now?
What’s the story now? Is it near over yet?
Pennsylvania reckon they might be finished tonight. If that turns Blue, Biden's in. Georgia's doing a recount.
The very few world leaders who handle the pandemic well will clean up at an election, as seen in NZ.
To be fair to whoever is President of the US, I don't think it would even theoretically be possible to contain it there, the place is an absolute zoo.
Yeah, it's long gone. They let it loose for the best part of six months and it's only the likes of Hawaii, Alaska and New York have managed to contain it.
Our one [although not a world leader obviously] won the popular vote to get back in and has subsequently been unceremoniously dumped from all positions of actual power by underhanded internal deals by his rivals.
But then, politicians are only really as good as their science guys/geographical good fortune.
Just as much seethe toward my own side. The next two years will be:
McConnell passes stimulus during the lame duck then bottles things up in the Senate.
Democrats whine and complain and yammer about changing the Electoral College and packing the Court and structural reform when they know they need 60 seats.
Then in a couple cycles when R’s win again they will complain that African Americans only 85-15 in their favor and Hispanics 65-35. When outreach was just “hey black person - prison bad - you are all in prison right?” There hasn’t been any rural outreach of any kind but “hmm why do you vote against your interests?” Since the 80’s.
Nothing much will pass and we’ll do this all again in 4-8 years. All because Trump is the only person worse than. Democrats at politics.
Is there any danger of anyone having the balls to call any of these states that Biden won easily three days ago?
Usually you're pretty insightful but i completely disagree with your characterization of Trump. He's phenomenal at politics. He got elected despite the entire party machinery being against him throughout the primaries simply because he connected with voters in a way that someone like John Kasich never could. He single-handedly changed the ideological platform of the party. He's not good in the traditional *bipartisan* sense, but he's amazing in the way that he's constructed politics. And he only lost this time round because of Corona; as others have mentioned you'll see incumbents lose worldwide due to that.
That's like saying someone is PHENOMONAL at wearing a XXXL t-shirt because they are fat.
If Trump was doing it all knowingly he would definitley be a genius. As it is, he's simply fluked greatness thanks to the way society has developed.