Yevrah goes into a meeting at a builder's merchants, comes out and has ended society.
Yevrah goes into a meeting at a builder's merchants, comes out and has ended society.
Probably a bulletproof strategy for maintaining an acceptable level of social distance when out and about.Originally Posted by phonics
Plenty of central banks have and have had negative interest rates, but they haven't impacted inflation - or much else - at all. To me trying to approach solving this issue with monetary policy is absolutely retarded anyway and the Fed's approach has probably only caused more hysteria than if they hadn't done anything.
And @John Arne I admit i was wrong there
I don't know if it's plenty...I can think of Japan and (very briefly) the ECB in recent memory, and certainly never in a scenario quite like this with the same structural barriers to spending. Old mate Bernanke seemed to be a fan post-crisis, but it obviously never got there. But yes, the outcomes have not been particularly encouraging in the "best" of times.
Incidentally, I totally agree with you that trying to monetary policy your way out of this is laughable. It's a fiscal crisis, not a monetary one.
Let's err... just see if this is a trend first. We went lower earlier in the week before increasing the next day. We'll only really know where we stand when the confirmed cases slow down.I reckon the virus has seen what it's up against in Britain and seen its arse. What a cowardly little cunt weed.
Switzerland, all the Scandi states, and the ECB still has a negative deposit rate. Plus Japan obviously who have been on it for like a decade. I know there's some more in Europe as well. Most people don't realize just how many different CBs are operating below the zero lower bound
Congratulations!
Interesting time to have a child... are parents/relatives going to be banned visiting?
Yevrah really is thriving off this shit wow. Death toll didn't give him what he wanted so he killed off society to quench his bloodthirst.
Although keep in mind that the ECB's deposit rate isn't the main source of liquidity in the system, so for all intents and purposes it's 0 (the MRO rate), and Japan is only negative on excess reserves. Is Switzerland negative on deposit or on central bank lending as well?
Work as normal next week, think we’re expecting around 70% attendance. Some talk of working the Easter holiday.
There's no point looking at current death numbers unless you want to know what was going on a couple of weeks ago. They're going to get shitter for ages yet. New cases is the one to watch. They'll carry on going up for a while as well but at least it's recent data.
I understand the horror at yesterday's Italian deaths, for example, but they only tell us it was really shit a while ago. Combine that with the fact the expected peak there is between this time next week and mid-April (to account for differences in when various lockdown elements were implemented in different places) and you can expect them to mount up for a while yet. They are at least off the 33% exponential curve now and getting further from it each day so we can have some confidence the peak is approaching.
The predicted numbers of death, and duration of disease in its current form, need to be taken with a pinch of salt too. We might end up with as few as 9,000 dead or we could get into the hundreds of thousands but we don't really know. Swine flu was modelled as doing in 65,000 in the UK. It didn't get out of the hundreds. It might (well it definitely will, eventually) mutate. Viruses normally mutate into weaker versions because killing hosts isn't very good for helping them spread, which is sort of the point of their existence. That happened to SARS and it never came back. This virus is related to SARS. The rate of infection might slow down more quickly than expected because there might be loads of people who are asymptomatic (there's already some good testing in Iceland suggesting this might be the case) and so we might already be seeing a level of herd immunity beyond what's expected. We might get our hands on an effective existing drug rather in lieu of a vaccine. Experimental use of existing drugs on Covid-19 patients has already seen good results (all 40 patients given an anti-malarial in France were cured in 6 days) and we're starting a trial of something else in the UK next week.
The modelling looks grim but is only as good as the assumptions made. It's right that the assumptions are worst-case at the moment because we know fuck all. But clever people are learning about it all the time and although life is probably going to change for an extended period it's probably not going to be end of days stuff either.
If this were in anyway true, or likely, which I doubt, wouldn't it be better just to take the deaths and carry on as normal?
It's hilarious, and actually far more engaging than the crisis itself.
New levels from Yev today
I really hope he’s only hit about 7/10 because it’s nearly making this all worthwhile.
That's the utterly unpalatable bit, which we'll do if we have to.
All great points. I guess the bit I struggle to reconcile when it comes to ignoring the deaths now (I appreciate they're a symptom of what was happening rather than what is) when we're already seeing a fair few and a significant amount of people are simply ignoring the advice.
I kind of want a MASSIVE number posted by London so it sends him to 11/10, before settling down to a damp squib.
Did Boris genuinely just say he'll never close the underground? Did I hear that right?
I genuinely hope it ends up like that, I just can't see how what we're doing will lead to that.
EDIT: As a damp squib, not mass death.
Last edited by Yevrah; 19-03-2020 at 05:32 PM.
My friend juts text me we have a lower average age of infected than any other country at the moment.
We movin up the table soon boys
That last question is the best one that's been asked so far, in any press conference.
Absolute zinger.
And they don't have an answer. Why mention 12 weeks in the first place?
Blew the 12 weeks bullshit out of the water. Car crash.
What was the question and answer?
The thing is, there is some tentative evidence from China (lol) and Italy which points that way. So quote it. The problem is it then attracts questions as to why we aren't closing down in the same way they have and he doesn't want to answer them.
He also definitely doesn't want to do these every day, the lying fucker.
I think he was trying to appease the financial markets.
Looks positive, no?
Backfired spectacularly.
What the fuck is going on here?
Why ask the journalists if it's okay to move to more remote conferences? Either that's the science or it isn't, and if it is then the journalists can fuck off.
This is what pisses me off so much. This cunt wanted the job so fucking bad and now he can barely even be arsed to pretend he wants to actually do it.
He claimed we could turn the tide in 12 weeks at the start.
He was then asked at the end what that actually meant. He couldn't answer and the scientists didn't want to.
Absolute shambles. Couple that with no intention to close London in any way whatsoever and I can't see how we're not fucking this harder than everywhere, with the possible exception of Italy.
EDIT: Fuck it. How can it not be worse than Italy?
Last edited by Yevrah; 19-03-2020 at 05:55 PM.
Witty is a robot. More of him please.
Okay, so the UK's deaths are level with yesterday's number. Oh, the wikipedia page now has an age chart. Old data, mind. From the 9th (2,101 cases)
39.8% of cases were above 70. 640-ish cases.
Last edited by Shindig; 19-03-2020 at 05:53 PM.
The more I think about it, the more I think they're actually still going for the herd immunity approach.
I think the scientists probably just didn't want to undermine him in that environment. 12 weeks does make sense in the context of the modelling but what people are going to have to realise is that the purpose of what we're being asked to do isn't to kill this thing but to reduce its impact by spreading the load. So we might see the rate of infection plateau in two weeks, which Vallance has now suggested twice. But a flat peak is a long peak so we'll likely see a high case and death numbers for many weeks before increased immunity and some seasonality kick in.
By the end of June we might just start seeing that (according to the data) but even then restrictions aren't just going to be lifted wholesale. By saying we'll 'turn the tide' by the end of June he's made a promise he can't keep, which is why he shat himself at that question. Not like Boris.
Can you explain how you arrived at the dissolution of society and 90% unemployment?
After 6 weeks of lockdown China is now reporting no new cases and people are returning to work. Not saying their numbers are necessarily real, but their society is starting to return to some form of normality.
Course, you could see the look on their faces. He shafted them and they didn't want to retaliate, but how the hell did it get to that stage? We also appear to be back at where we were a week ago, in that we're going to somehow suppress the peak by not actually doing anywhere near enough to suppress the peak.
Because they locked shit down, we haven't and seemingly we won't. Why would anyone be comparing us to the supposed success China have had when we haven't followed the same approach?
Surely this is all fucked though cause young people aren't getting tested at the same rate as the older folks, rght?Okay, so the UK's deaths are level with yesterday's number. Oh, the wikipedia page now has an age chart. Old data, mind. From the 9th (2,101 cases)
39.8% of cases were above 70. 640-ish cases.
The government's approach with distancing and supporting the economy has been dreadful, but if people can't see that, I might have gone as far as I can with this. I may just have to carry on isolating while I pretend it isn't happening.
Seems easier that way.
I'm trying to ignore the global pandemic tearing society apart by playing Resident Evil 3.
Every sniffle or cough I think "welp, it's time."
This is torture and I hate everything.
No, we're not at the level of China's interventions but what makes you think we wouldn't resort to that and instead let society break down?
Did you actually read what I wrote? It's all covered.
China spent weeks lying about the existence of the thing before doing anything. We've put measures in which some data and other anecdotal stuff suggests is having some effect in stopping people hanging around others so much. The modelling of the flat peak is based on the current measures, weak as they might seem. It might all turn out to be bollocks but we're going to have to wait and see.
That said, they're obviously going to go in harder at some point. He keeps deliberately not ruling it out. Why it's not happening now is beyond me but that's probably because they're cleverer than me.
What I do know is that the people I care about have changed their behaviour a lot, so they've got as good a chance as anybody at not dying. Which leaves my most pressing problem as when I'm ever going to get abroad for a holiday again. Greece in June is obviously fucked. Going away in August remains just about within the realms of the possible but fuck knows really. Got a week in Cornwall booked for May which we can likely do if we just get beers and food in and go out to secluded places of which there are plenty now. Otherwise it's holidays in the garden for the foreseeable. Hope it's a nice summer.
191 new cases and 1 new death today.
You said you had come to the conclusion that unless a vaccine is developed and administered fast we will see 90% unemployment and the death of society. I'm asking how you arrived at those conclusions.
This bickering isn't really entertaining or based on any actual logic so idk maybe abandon it.
"Unless we don't, we're all gonna die!" - this is what ya'll sound like
The zombies ate me and I died if you'd like to put that into your statistical database Yev.
They're cleverer than me too, but are they cleverer than all the other countries scientists who have advocated lock downs and actually done them? We are around 4 days behind the point when Italy locked the whole country down and as things stand now, London is open for business.
We're not testing the population anywhere near enough.
We've not locked anything down
We're not going to lock the tube down
We don't have enough ICU beds.
Our doctors don't have the right PPE
Our doctors aren't being tested and are being removed from the front line instead
Boris is actively lying to us about 12 weeks
Boris is not supporting the public - how are the people looking after their children for the next x weeks going to be paid?
Boris is not supporting business - how are those businesses that people are being told to stay away from going to cope? Repaying loans?
I sort of now start to see now how the left must feel when they listen to him. So many lies or untruths.
Last edited by Yevrah; 19-03-2020 at 06:28 PM.
Yes. Although we've been testing predominantly in the hospitals. So you can imagine the majority of the 70+ occupying a hospital bed. The younger ones might be family members, contacts or people returning from hotspots.
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