Well it will be solid in that it will be evidence based. We don’t get to find out which evidence base we can eliminate as shit science for this particular type of outbreak for ages yet. Such is the nature of science.Originally Posted by Yevrah
Well it will be solid in that it will be evidence based. We don’t get to find out which evidence base we can eliminate as shit science for this particular type of outbreak for ages yet. Such is the nature of science.
That also made me laugh. "You want me to do fucking what Boris?"The prime minister's adviser, Dominic Cummings, has also initiated conversations with Uber and Deliveroo about taking food to the old and vulnerable when they are put into forced isolation.
https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/st...250572288?s=20
The under 60s aren't safe.
So all science is good science and must be listened to and followed until it's demonstrably proven to be bad science.
It's this sort of wank that gives experts a bad name.
If you lock everything down you have absolutely no chance of just slowly turning everything back onto normal over a further x amount of months. Right, the virus is fucking off. You can go back to work, but don't go on the bus. And we can dribble a few sporting events back on, but I wouldn't watch them in pubs if I were you... Once enacted it effectively becomes an all or nothing measure. People will just hear 'the virus is fucking off' and go back to behaving in ways that are liable to spread it back round, and they will have spent three months inside wanking with no sort of immunity to it ('herd immunity' doesn't mean it bounces off your face - it means reducing it to the virility of a common cold).
It's smoking isn't it.
I've stopped now, but did for ages and I vape (which I don't really trust either). With the government's approach, this might actually get me.
My hospital has confirmed cases now, so I guess I'll be 'winning' the first TTHer to catch it award.
Yeldoow's already got it by the looks of things last night.
No. The point is that nobody from any country is just making this up based on their own crackpot theories. There will be a basis to it. Science is based on observation and experimentation. You test things and eliminate stuff. The problem we have in the UK is that we haven’t had that evidence base shared with us. Whereas elsewhere it’s obvious - let’s copy China as far as we can get away with in a liberal democracy. I’m not saying ‘they’re scientists so they must be right’. I’m saying Whitty and Co aren’t heading into No.10 having never done any research and saying ‘let’s just have a crack at this, Boris’.
We simply won’t know for months who has this right. We don’t know if there will be a second wave. If there is we don’t know if it will look like there isn’t because Italy opens back up in the summer and it doesn’t transmit, only to kill everybody in November. We know fuck all, because it’s new, other than that shutting down stops it in the short term. Because of course it does. Uncomfortable as it might be, we are in the midst of a global experiment with lives on the line. Our experts will be acutely aware of that. They’ll be doing what their evidence tells them will work rather than copying others for the sake of it. Firstly, I hope they’re right. But secondly and probably more importantly, I hope they’re flexible that if Italy opens up and infections don’t spike again to change direction.
Anyway, I quite liked this explanation of what they’re up to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzCi8
Last edited by Lee; 14-03-2020 at 09:10 PM.
The wikipedia page seems to attribute herd immunity as a factor of eliminating smallpox. They also talk a lot about how herd immunity is used in conjunction with vaccination.
Last edited by Shindig; 14-03-2020 at 09:11 PM.
Have your lot stopped visiting yet and done stuff with wards/ICU?
I'm not saying people are making things up Lee, I'm sure the things that are concrete in this area are universally concrete and understood, but not everything can be evidence based, there have to be assumptions. We know there are, our government scientists told us many (one being people will get bored staying inside if we ask them to now). And it's those assumptions that are key, and ours are very different to the rest of the world. For me they form part of the science, maybe they don't for you and that's the distinction in where we veer off.
I agree that what is happening elsewhere is part of the science. It can’t not be. I have to assume that whatever is making us different is compelling to our lot. I’m not at all certain that we are right and nobody else is. The government really need to be transparent with the evidence so it can be interrogated and challenged properly.
And that video sums up what I'm saying perfectly. "One shot at the quarantine phase" is a huge assumption.
And as the tweet before that Jim posted perfectly summed up, there are so many assumptions in this approach, with a seeming starting point of not even knowing how many people are actually infected and where they are, while they're all still moving. If you don't know that, how can you possibly control the flow from the bucket?
You can't, but don't you just kick quarantine in when things look like they're about to get stretched/critical in the health system?
I agree 'one shot at quarantine' sounds a bit- maybe it means if you do it this way you have to do the quarantine right once, albeit very right, and if you go the other way you have to do about X quarantines (however many that may be) and can maybe get them less right, but both ways essentially push the whole population through the virus mincer?
My worry with quarantine (at least from China, Italy and ... presumably France) is that mortality spikes in the wake of it. You do get a chance to slow things down but it's after a lot of collateral.
I've not been in over the weekend and I'm also on paeds so we're a bit isolated from the main hospital. I know nearby hospitals stopped visiting today, not sure if we have yet. There's definitely been clean and dirty wards being set up.
But given the lead time in contracting it and getting seriously ill from it, how will you know when they're about to get stretched? It's another assumption and one I can't see (but would love to know the basis for) how it works. Mis-time that at all and the quarantine is too late and you're going to have a fuck ton of people who need medical help.
There must be a model somewhere that says if we keep people fully integrated for this long then x % will get it and we can cope with that. But that model is a forecast (essentially a huge part of what I do for a living) and the one thing that's bloody obvious about forecasts is that they're wrong as soon as they're submitted and it's all about how wrong.
The mortality would spike anyway.
How do you mean? As a percentage because fewer people are contracting it?
It can take a fair while to kill you. 2-3 weeks. So there will be a period through which deaths from legacy cases continue to mount whilst new infections slow down. Spain, for instance, is seeing a fuckton of new daily cases which will result in a big spike in deaths in 2-3 weeks time. Also at around that point they ought to see the impact of lockdown on new cases.
Yeah, I wasn't thinking that through. I see numbers, I react.
A doctor friend has been put on indefinite paid leave because she's on immunosuppressants.
Another thing about the government approach that's incongruous is the hand washing. Thinking about it, wouldn't they rather healthy and young people didn't wash their hands?
EDIT: Or at least a certain percentage at any one time didn't.
It's the smoking isn't it.
They probably figure the virus will spread itself at a decent enough rate no matter what preventative measures (short of quarantine/lcokdown) you attempt.
Also, the boon in personal hygiene is probably stopping the spread of loads of other shit the filthy, largely male, population previously tended towards, which could be a trend for the better both in the short and long term.
Only just seen this, but 229 scientists around the UK have felt strongly enough to sign an open letter disagreeing with the government's action:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
As scientists living and working in the UK, we would like to express our concernabout the course of action announced by the Government on 12th March 2020 regarding the Coronavirus outbreak.
In particular, we are deeply preoccupied by the timeline of the proposed plan, which aims at delaying social distancing
measures even further.
The current data about the number of infections in the UK is in line with the growth curves already observed in other countries, including Italy, Spain, France,
and Germany. The same data suggests that the number of infected will be in the order of dozens of thousands within a few days.
Under unconstrained growth, this outbreak will affect millions of people in the next few weeks. This will most probably put the NHS at serious risk of not being able to cope with the flow of patients needing intensive care, as the number
of ICU beds in the UK is not larger than that available in other neighbouring countries with a similar population. Going for herd immunity at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of
stress, risking many more lives than necessary.
By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared. We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world.
We urge anyone who has sympathy with our views, and access to the government strategy group, to make our concerns more widely known.
The problem they have is that fuck knows which blend of the science is right, but their approach makes people feel unsafe and/or like lab rats.
They're mostly from unrelated fields, so fuck knows why the dickhead BBC and Sky are reporting them as 'scientists' as if their opinions carry equal weight to the people behind the policies in question.
Who would have thought BoltonMassiv was a trailblazer with self isolation.
I don't think I like Lewis when he's drunk on immunity.
Scientists is a meaningless term.
In my job I'm classed as a 'subject matter expert', so feel free to quote my bollocks to your family and friends as coming from a 'government expert'.
Trump hasn't got it.
Even if he did, it shouldn't be reported given his position. He cant be weak out here
He's already weak. The AMERICA, FUCK YEAH approach may 'work' due to herd immunity, but at least Boris has had a go at being contrite and explaining the situation, to an extent. Trump's just lying and will likely be held accountable for X amount of US deaths.
I started smoking again over the winter. Well done, Mellin.
Good news, feel fine today, first TTH full recovery!
Trump getting croaked by this would be the dream scenario. It's still all to play for.
Boris' Dad dropping would be top tier stuff.
Isolating the elderly (so probably reducing their general social isolation for at least half of them) does seem a more sensible way to go about 'managing' this than just shutting down society and surely, of any group, they are the most likely to listen to what they are told to do? I wonder why it isn't done asap - do we still need to push a percentage of them through the mincer for 'the model' to work?
Because they'll get lonely.
Just need to load up the TV schedule with 60s and 70s sitcoms and they'll be right as rain.
Britain seem to be the only country clinging on for dear life to politics when it comes to general attitudes to all this. Forget them for now.
They've had a PR shocker but I think behind the scenes the processes are actually fine.
Yeah, they've been criticised they're putting the at-risks at ... err... risk so they're attempting to mitigate it.
Bloody hell it was RAMMED last night in the pubs.
Just get it approach may need to be questioned.
https://twitter.com/narrowthefield/s...528855041?s=21
And yet there are tens of thousands who have it with no symptoms.
Just sounds like Flu.
The group very much on the ropes.
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