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Thread: The UK Politics Thread [Wot did Jez do now...]

  1. #4251
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    I should add that it's a source of disgrace for the Labour party that the bloke who's meant to be lead objector to this racket starts blathering on about wage caps and footballers earning too much money. Fucking footballers. Sweet mother of God.

  2. #4252
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    If footballers earned less, where would all the money go? It's probably the most socialist major industry going.

  3. #4253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    If footballers earned less, where would all the money go? It's probably the most socialist major industry going.
    Absolutely and yet somehow Corbyn gets drawn into discussing it, as if it's on a par with Philip Green's antics.

  4. #4254
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    But when Our NHS is in crisis... Speaking of which, did you see how Jeremy Hunt making a mint selling his company was reported today? It was very much him making money whilst people die in corridors, as if the two are related.

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    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Hate to quote the Blogpost of Destiny again, but 'corporate looting' is a great term for it.

    Nobody minds the fact that people are richer than them, what they mind is when they are richer than them AND skewing the system against them.

  6. #4256
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    What's the blogpost of destiny?

  7. #4257
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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  8. #4258
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    A bloke I'm friends with on Facebook write out a summary of that:

    For those of my friends who find the time to really pay attention to Brexit: this blogpost is 20,000 words long, but unnervingly worth reading. Apart from occasionally lapsing into Westminster jargon, it's well written, indeed compelling.

    For the less deranged, here's my summary! It's an account of the Brexit campaign by Dominic Cummings, the co-ordinator of the Leave campaign and the person most responsible for the big 350million/NHS lie. It's quite rare you get to read a central figure's thoughts like this so soon (and, as Jonny points out, perhaps a mark of the strange times we're living in that he's posted them).

    The post is firm that without the NHS lie, Brexit wouldn't have happened -- which is appalling, but interesting for how we might campaign next.

    The only excuses Cummings offers for this huge lie (and lying about Turkish accession) is that the Remain campaign also lied, and that he was properly committed to winning the campaign, unlike the more squeamish figures around him -- which is a measure of his odiousness. Predictably, the post is pompous, self-aggrandising (complete with elaborate false modesty), and full of criticism without substantive self-criticism. Obviously it would be foolish to expect Cummings to tell the truth; but equally he hasn't obviously gained much personally, so far, from Brexit, and doesn't seem too fussed about burning bridges.

    Bits and pieces that stuck out to me:

    * One section worth reading if you want something bite-sized is called 'An example of a simple, powerful media story that is wrong and contributed to forecasting errors on Brexit – ‘the centre ground’'. Basically, most voters pretty strongly support some things that are characterised by the media as right-wing extremes and some that are characterised as left-wing extremes. Governments are portrayed as centrist but relative to public opinion are often themselves extremist.

    * Cummings is convinced that the Brexit campaign only won because of some quite unlikely circumstances (and without any big single explanatory factor). Prominent are: outmanoeuvring the In campaign with big lies in the last month, capitalising on mistakes by Cameron and Osborne (starting with holding the referendum in the first place obviously...), and managing to navigate the self-destructive infighting of Out campaigners and the negative image of Farage.

    * Cummings reckons that most In supporters aren't making an economically or philosophically rational decision, but are expressing their own identity politically. This rings true to to me to a large degree -- it's surely true of myself. I'd appreciate seeing more recognition of this home truth on my Facebook wall... (Though it is characteristic of Cummings's writing that he seems blind to people also forming their pro-EU opinions through rational humanism.)

    * Cummings makes Westminster politics sound as awful and dysfunctional as _In the Thick of It_ makes it look. Obviously he has an axe to grind, but...

    * He argues that Cameron in particular spent most of his Prime Ministership responding to media opinion rather than public opinion; that media opinion is not actually that influential on the public; and that public opinion is very different from media opinion. (I'm not sure how much I buy the idea that media aren't that influential, but it's interesting.)

    * He insists that although Gove and Johnson looked gutted when the Brexit vote came in, they were actually jubilant but just didn't want to look like they were dancing on Cameron's grave.

    * People are more likely to win campaigns by keeping the maximum number of options open rather than committing to brilliant gambits that, however, limit future options; by focusing intently on the issue in question; and by getting thorough information about pubic opinion.

    There must have been other interesting things in here that I've forgotten. If anyone actually reads it, I'd be very grateful for their reminders!

  9. #4259
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Rumours abound that Dave wants to bounce back by running fucking NATO. As if it wasn't enough to be a shit at the thing he had at least some basic experience of.

  10. #4260
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    * Cummings reckons that most In supporters aren't making an economically or philosophically rational decision, but are expressing their own identity politically. This rings true to to me to a large degree -- it's surely true of myself. I'd appreciate seeing more recognition of this home truth on my Facebook wall... (Though it is characteristic of Cummings's writing that he seems blind to people also forming their pro-EU opinions through rational humanism.)
    And none of them even know what the fucking single market is.

  11. #4261
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    I can't listen to Theresa May for more than 30 seconds without feeling like I'm back in religious assembly. She is gratingly dull.

  12. #4262
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    A bloke I'm friends with on Facebook write out a summary of that:
    The SEETHE bubbling away under that.

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    Senior Member Davgooner's Avatar
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    Don't worry lads I'm sure we'll be on the right end of those trade deals.

  14. #4264
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    If there's anything we've shown down the years is that we always come out winners in negotiations with the EU.

  15. #4265
    Senior Member Bernanke's Avatar
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    May: We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
    EU: You're not getting that without staying in the single market and accepting the Four Freedoms.
    May: Well we don't want that!
    EU: Then there's nothing more to be said.
    May: ...We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.

  16. #4266
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It doesn't even matter what deal we get or don't get right now. What matters is that we avoid having to go into ever closer/political union with these wankers down the line. And the British people, as they always do when the chips are down, have delivered.

  17. #4267
    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    The thing about tariffs is that they work both ways and whatever hyperbole gets spaffed in the media can you really see the remaining members wanting to gimp their own trade that much? Plus as Jimmy points out the benefits of getting out are going to turn up everywhere, not necessarily be measureable in every individual trade deal. Small price to pay and all that.

  18. #4268
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by phonics View Post
    Encourage business and innovation Do they send you the PR booklet for the week? Do you realise how devoid of meaning that phrase sounds?

    It's like Steve Hilton is in the building.

    edit: Unless you'd like to give me a few Tory policies that ENCOURAGE INNOVATION, of course.
    Cutting the corporation tax rate to 20% (with further planned cuts to 17%) from 28% under Gordon Brown in 2010 is a start.

    Unemployment fell from 8% to under 5% (effectively 'full employment' in modern economic management) in the same period. There were 31.76m in employment in August to October 2016, compared to 28.98m in May 2010 when the Tories came in - an increase of nearly 3m.

    In FY2010, corporation tax receipts were 35.5bn compared to 42.1bn in FY2016 - an increase of 18.5% in tax intake.

    This arises because private sector investment is more productive than public investment, and lowering tax rates encourages investment and, yes, innovation. It's contributed to significant reduction in unemployment, an increase in tax intake and a strong economic foundation from which other benefits are derived.

    Lower headline tax and generous tax relief on research and development has also been a positive for Ireland. They lead (or led) the FDI 'league' in Europe, and companies that were surveyed cited the tax levels and accompanying reliefs as key reasons.

    It obviously requires other factors (e.g. strong international links through LHR / LGW, Dublin airport; English speaking populace; already established base of companies and skills), which is why you can't replicate it in fucking Kansas - but it requires government to support the private sector by making it easy for them to invest, expand and not create an environment which appears to be hostile to success.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    It's still true (for the most part), and hopefully Tax Haven Brexit goes some way towards proving it.
    We should be cutting unnecessary regulation before we start tampering with tax relief.

    Targeted R&D reliefs, alongside continued reduction in headline tax levels, should follow.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    I've no problem whatsoever with people earning silly money, but when they're paying their staff peanuts while creaming in it then they're taking the fucking piss and we really shouldn't be standing for it as a civilised society.
    Which in and of itself is fine until you realise that no other country is going to introduce the necessary legislation. The French socialists introduced a 75% tax rate on higher earners and it yielded less than a quarter of the expected tax intake. This isn't the 19th century - it's a globalised market.

    You might get away with forcing them to publish ratios, but I don't see what publicly shaming these companies would achieve other than giving some people a sense that virtue has been signaled. I think the government goes far enough by imposing a minimum wage, albeit at a national level.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bernanke View Post
    May: We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
    EU: You're not getting that without staying in the single market and accepting the Four Freedoms.
    May: Well we don't want that!
    EU: Then there's nothing more to be said.
    May: ...We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
    If they do that, then we'd fall back on WTO rules. In that event, with no agreement and therefore no requirement to adhere to any 'deal', we'd simply achieve competitiveness by slashing taxes and regulation and sitting as a tax haven on their doorstep. Tariffs aren't overly onerous with WTO rules, and under their rules the EU can't impose harsher tariffs. Tax cuts, alongside our ability to devalue sterling if required, would ensure continued competitiveness whilst causing difficulty for the EU. This would be particularly prevalent if we do start striking proper trade deals outside the customs union.

    They don't want West Singapore sitting on their doorstep whilst causing serious difficulty for trade with what will become their biggest market. We'd be able to take steps to ensure competitiveness, whilst member states couldn't owing to the restrictions of single market regulation and the Eurozone.

    Barnier has already acknowledged privately that there will need to be some sort of deal with the City to protect the Eurozone as you simply can't replicate the infrastructure and expertise. It's the financial capital of the currency, and they'll require a bespoke deal to ensure its stability.

    There are plenty of areas where the UK's hand is strong. It's more interesting now that the Donald is basically accusing the Germans of using the EU as a vehicle to impose their own views on Europe (at least it's not the Wehrmacht this time) and his comments on NATO mean they'll be reluctant to damage strong security cooperation given our services appear (stress appear) to be significantly better than most on the continent.

  19. #4269
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GS View Post
    Cutting the corporation tax rate to 20% (with further planned cuts to 17%) from 28% under Gordon Brown in 2010 is a start.

    Unemployment fell from 8% to under 5% (effectively 'full employment' in modern economic management) in the same period. There were 31.76m in employment in August to October 2016, compared to 28.98m in May 2010 when the Tories came in - an increase of nearly 3m.
    I'm absolutely bowled over that eight years after the largest financial crash since the Great Depression, unemployment was 3% better than after two years.. What would we have done without them.

    None of that megapost has anything whatsoever to do with innovation I notice. Apart from saying businesses making money leads to innovation (which we all know is total bollocks. A publicly traded company is far more likely to invest in stock buybacks than R&D in this climate)

    Just say 'Fair cop, I was talking bollocks'. It's quite easy to just admit you were more interested in toeing a party line and so fell into their doublespeak. It's fine.

  20. #4270
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    What I do is stand outside CBI headquarters and bellow 'Come on guys! You can do it!'

  21. #4271
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Or you could bump a couple of points off their corporation tax if they invest over a % of profits in R&D based in the UK. You could create a funding group to invest in start-ups (they do this for the DOD but nothing else, why?) You could have not shut down the UK Film Council (a money making program) etc. etc. etc.

    There's a million of them but instead they've just bumped a couple of points off their mates taxes and gone 'Look how well we've done' while everybody making less than 85 grand a year is still fucked.

    edit: Oh I forgot that 2 billion they spent on an NHS IT solution that was so fucked they never implemented it. Sorry. 1 piece of innovation and it was dog shit.

  22. #4272
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by phonics View Post
    I'm absolutely bowled over that eight years after the largest financial crash since the Great Depression, unemployment was 3% better than after two years.. What would we have done without them.

    None of that megapost has anything whatsoever to do with innovation I notice.
    Sub-5% is effectively full employment. For comparison:

    France - 9.9% (Q2, 2016)
    Spain - 22.7% (Apr '15)
    Italy - 12.4% (Apr '15)
    Belgium - 8.5% (Apr '15)
    Netherlands - 7.0% (Apr '15)
    Portugal - 13.0% (Apr '15)
    Ireland - 7.7% (Apr '15)

    Germany and the US are both sub 5%, for the sake of balance. Nevertheless, we were uniquely vulnerable to the financial crash owing to Labour's financial policies - they ran a budget deficit to fund current (not capital) expenditure from 2002 onwards and were turning a blind eye to the City whilst relying on their tax revenues.

    I actually think Lord Darling did well post disaster, but the "jobs miracle" (not my term) is one of Cameron's few genuine achievements and should be acknowledged as such.

    Also, innovation isn't mentioned because what sort of metric do you want to measure it with? The number of copyright patents? It's a term used to describe private sector investment - some initiatives may fail, others may not. They arise by reducing barriers to entry and getting the government out of the way. The public sector is incapable of being innovative because it's public money and can't be pissed away on speculative, high risk business ventures.

    Low taxes, low regulation encourages job creation and makes it easier for people to try new things in business. This is the whole point, and you don't achieve that by making it impossible for people to start or expand their business by imposing excessive rules or taking their money off them rather than letting it be ploughed straight back in to help it grow.

  23. #4273
    Senior Member Davgooner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    It doesn't even matter what deal we get or don't get right now. What matters is that we avoid having to go into ever closer/political union with these wankers down the line. And the British people, as they always do when the chips are down, have delivered.
    That's meaningless wank Jim.

  24. #4274
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    As for GS' idea of being the new Singapore, fine but then let's nationalise everything while we're at it please.


  25. #4275
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It's not. You saw what happened with the Euro because they didn't have central control over fiscal policy. Long term it's either join that, or fuck them off, and we've correctly gone down route B.

    If you want route A and voted Remain because of it then fine, but those are the two options.

    Money changing hands and 'business' in the next 10 years is irrelevant. Shit happens.

    As a society we need to stop worrying about numbers quite so much and start seeing the wood for the trees.

  26. #4276
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    It's not. You saw what happened with the Euro because they didn't have central control over fiscal policy. Long term it's either join that, or fuck them off, and we've correctly gone down route B.

    If you want route A and voted Remain because of it then fine, but those are the two options.

    Money changing hands and 'business' in the next 10 years is irrelevant. Shit happens.

    As a society we need to stop worrying about numbers quite so much and see the wood for the trees.
    Central control almost certainly meaning German control.

    I think the "no status quo" aspect of the vote was completely lost on most people.

  27. #4277
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    The minute you notice the wood then the entire punditry business (in all walks of life really) collapses.

  28. #4278
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Tim 'Timmy' Farron has written belting whinge on the 'theft of democracy'. Elsewhere, Polly Toynbee sez that 'Enoch Powell from the grave has finally won'. He always does, love. He always does.

  29. #4279
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Literally everything Tim Farron says and does is a variation on the 'Lib Dems Winning Here' bar charts.

    Christ it's not been a good run for these people has it. From the moment the bubble burst on Cleggmania, it's been basically wall to wall bad news for metropolitan liberals. For a good reason, their lives are built on vacuous waffle and self-congratulation.

  30. #4280
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    True to form, there's a hashtag trending on Twitter, which will surely be enough to change the political winds in their favour.

    It's #NoWayMay, if you think I'm making it up.

  31. #4281
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    It's not over until Ian Dunt hangs himself.

  32. #4282
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    Unlucky, lads.

  33. #4283
    I used to be funny.
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    If we tried to keep single market status, we've not really left. It'd be like a divorce where one personleaves, keeps all their stuff there and returns every night for a kip and a fuck.

  34. #4284
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    'No, it has to be... Think SEETHING. We want to annoy everybody.'
    'Oh. I know...'

    Toggle Spoiler

  35. #4285
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    She's done well enough here, because nobody can really claim she hasn't provided any clarity. That Sky News poll had some other findings, which are quite good:



    Some 44% think she has a clear plan, up 10 percentage points since the question was last asked in October. Meanwhile 42% think she has not got a clear Brexit strategy, down seven points.



    Just over half (51%) now trust Mrs May to get the best possible deal in negotiations with the EU, up five points since October, while the proportion who do not trust her is down three points to 36%.

    The best finding, however, is this:

    Londoners oppose exiting the EU single market (52% to 33%), are unconvinced that Mrs May has a clear plan (58% to 30%) and do not trust her to get the best possible Brexit deal (48% to 31%) - all in stark contrast to the rest of the UK.

    Seething.

  36. #4286
    I used to be funny.
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    You'd imagine she should have a clear plan, given that this is the ONE THING politics has been focused on since the vote came in ... after, like, the leadership fuckery-do.

  37. #4287
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    In honour of The God Emperor being anointed on Friday, I'm asserting authoritarian rule where if the majority of a users posts over the course of a month are just reporting poll numbers, they're banned for the next month.

  38. #4288
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Remember when Fox was little more than a poll bot? And then everyone started praising him, and he got too big for his ginger boots.

  39. #4289
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    I assume it's disheartening to find yourself in the minority on seemingly everything.

  40. #4290
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    It's not over until Ian Dunt hangs himself.
    I haven't seen 'David Schneider' retweeted into my timeline much recently, has anyone checked on him?

  41. #4291
    Man(c) of the People igor_balis's Avatar
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    David Schneider is the least funny person on the internet.

  42. #4292
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Those trousers I know people have been referring to this whole thing as a circus but I think the clown trousers are a bit much Theresa.

  43. #4293
    More successful than most Magic's Avatar
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    Make them red and they are basically my jammie bottoms.

  44. #4294
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    I'm sure both are equally crusty through cum stains too.

  45. #4295
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    I haven't seen 'David Schneider' retweeted into my timeline much recently, has anyone checked on him?
    There is clearly money to be made writing endless shite on the whole thing, and the model should be all of those 'Analysts' that popped up between 2012 and 2014 speculating on Syria (except they all get Qatari think tank money which I'm not sure that Tim Farron could match).

  46. #4296
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    My favourite current Twitter experts are the 'Russian Analysts' who don't seem to even speak Russian let alone know anything that you couldn't learn from a Year 9 History Textbook.

    edit: Lewis, even though it's produced by a bunch of BERNIEBROS, you'd love Chapo Trap House. Give it a spin.

  47. #4297
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Pro-Assad/Iran/Russia Twitter does a great line in annoying all of these people, who then just go 'lol Kremlin trolls' and carry on spouting wank.

  48. #4298
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Twitter/the internet as a liberal echo chamber has probably played a large part in torching their parade, as they now have absolutely no awareness of the world around them as opposed to the traditional very little.

  49. #4299
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Corbz: 'It's not so much the Iron Lady as the irony lady'

    That doesn't work, Jeremy. In fact it's fucking spastic.

  50. #4300
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    Watching both of them act out their prerehersed lines is cringe-inducing. Theresa May reminded me of The Rock with one of her pauses.

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