The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[Lee]

The phone polls will be closer to the truth, you'd think. They were better than online polls through the election campaign. Whether that stands for a referendum I don't know. It would be interesting to look back at the Scottish independence polls.

The current consensus seems to be that leadership ratings are much more accurate than voting intention numbers. If that translates for the referendum then I don't see how the leave campaign isn't fucked unless Boris Johnson leads it, which I don't think will happen. Even then I'm not sure if he's more trusted than Cameron. Farage should be avoided; some polls have him as more disliked than Corbyn, which is some going.

I suspect Cameron is playing a blinder with his current 'deal'. It all looks like a set up ahead of his next round of negotiations so he can come back with something slightly better and claim he has listened to the British people and persuaded 'the Europeans' to go further. We shall see.

[GS]

To be honest, my scepticism is largely because I find it impossible to believe that "Leave" has a nine point lead.

[Lee]

It may be that it's tight and that poll is at one end of the margin of error. I tend to believe that remain are comfortably in the lead and that it will tighten a bit toward the vote.

[GS]

The 'News International' papers seem to be swinging fully behind 'Leave', and it's becoming clearer by the day that Cameron is struggling to hold potential 'outers' in his party in-line.

On related notes, the EU have given Greece a deadline to stop the boats or be 'suspended' from Schengen, whilst the latest youth unemployment stats across the EU are thus:

Greece: 48%
Spain: 47.7%
Italy: 40%
Cyprus: 32.5%
Portugal: 32%
France: 24.7%
UK: 13.7%
Netherlands: 11.6%
Germany: 7.1%

[GS]

Latest Sunday polling for anyone interested:

I expect David Cameron will (X) for Britain in his EU renegotiation:
Get a good deal: 21%
Not get a good deal: 58%
(via ComRes / 10-12 Feb)

Britain's economy is/would be better off for/if we...
Being EU members: 39%
Left the EU: 36%
(via ComRes)

I would be personally better off if Britain...
Remained members of the EU: 29%
Left the EU: 27%
(via ComRes)

We are/would be better able to manage migrants coming through Calais...
As EU members: 29%
If we left the EU: 47%
(via ComRes)

[Toby]

Prize for strangest piece of campaign merchandise so far goes to:



Surely they should be telling people to simply pull out.

[GS]

Whilst it was expected, attempts to portray this negotiation as a) significant and b) successful are bordering on genuinely insulting.

[Lewis]

I saw a trade union bod on Channel 4 saying we have to stay in because the European Union guarantees workers' rights, which the Conservatives would want to get rid of. If only the trade unions had some sort of political vehicle through which to influence domestic political issues.

[Byron]

So talks have not progressed. Rumours are that a few Eastern European states are not agreeing anything regarding benefits and the French are blocking anything they would see as giving more freedom to the City of London. Polls are 52% Remain and 48% Leave and unless Cameron gets something soon, the momentum is going to swing against him.

[QE Harold Flair]

The out campaign are often derided as 'living in the past', but I see it as quite different. Staying in a failing, undemocratic wasteland is living in the past. Even the lefty BBC audience on QT seemed more for leaving last night. But I still fear people will votre for the status quo, as is often the case.

[Lee]

So talks have not progressed. Rumours are that a few Eastern European states are not agreeing anything regarding benefits and the French are blocking anything they would see as giving more freedom to the City of London. Polls are 52% Remain and 48% Leave and unless Cameron gets something soon, the momentum is going to swing against him.

Online polls are. Phone polls have the remain lead as much bigger. Cameron isn't daft, it isn't as though he hasn't been talking to other leaders at all and has just left everything until this summit. He'll know the challenges.

He'll also know that it looks good for him to have come through a tough negotiation and 'fought hard for Britain' before declaring success. He wants to stay in, the rest of the EU want us to stay in. There will be a real, even if it isn't achieved at this summit. It will be one that allows him to say he's won decent concessions too.

We all know that in reality the renegotiation is bollocks but we also know that whatever the outcome a number of people will vote to leave anyway. It isn't those people Cameron needs to win over. The campaign won't be fought over whatever deal Cameron brings back in any case.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Here's a superb articulation of the case for leaving in terms I hadn't thought of before: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...s-outside.html

[Lee]

Here's a superb articulation of the case for leaving in terms I hadn't thought of before: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...s-outside.html

That's a good article but if the author thinks the EU is so great and that a European state will be even better then why not accept being 'dominated' and live with Schengen and the Euro? And can a state by the name of Europe not do all these outward looking things with China and whoever else?

[Lewis]

Equally, Britain (and Ireland) could join the United States and work effectively with China.

[Lee]

Yeah, of course. I'm not a 'we are completely fucked if we leave the EU' merchant.

As you know I'm in favour of further integration for other reasons. I don't actually care much if that's through the EU it's obviously the best existing route for it to happen.

[Lewis]

Historically/culturally/whateverly we would be a much better fit as an American state than a European province. Let's start a movement.

[phonics]

If I can vote in American elections, I'm in. I say we're worth like 500 delegates too so we always get to decide.

Boris would be President within the week.

[Lewis]

The United Kingdom of America. Bring back the Grand Union Flag (updated to include post-1801 changes to our colours), and it's utterly seamless.

[Disco]

I'll take being able to turn right on a red light (well, left over here) but I don't want cheese with literally everything or their weedy power outlets that won't boil a kettle.

[simon]

It's the constant adverts that would bring the biggest issue.

Well, and the guns.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd consider moving to France, and I fucking don't say that lightly.

[Lee]

Floyd's relationship with France is one of the best things about this board. He's the most English person on here. I mean that as a compliment.

[QE Harold Flair]

No, I am the most English. Floyd turns his nose up at the EDL and proper working class heroes of that nature.

[Lewis]

The Labour leadership BOTTLING IT worries me a bit. I get that the wankers would probably use this as the reason to depose them all, so tearing all those Tony Blair statues down takes priority, but even a little bit of ambiguity would have done wonders. If the whole party machinery is thrown behind it then shit.

[GS]

Here's a superb articulation of the case for leaving in terms I hadn't thought of before: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...s-outside.html

His point about the 'two-track' EU between Eurozone and non-Eurozone is quite apt, and is the main reason why I'm voting to leave. It's just not going to work unless you sign up to everything. You can't vote for the EU you want it to be - you have to vote on the basis of the organisation that is and what it's going to become.

[GS]

It looks like Michael Gove is going to campaign for Brexit.

Fair play to him.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Labour leadership BOTTLING IT worries me a bit. I get that the wankers would probably use this as the reason to depose them all, so tearing all those Tony Blair statues down takes priority, but even a little bit of ambiguity would have done wonders. If the whole party machinery is thrown behind it then shit.

Obviously Jezza can't afford to risk the London dinner party vote that currently makes up most of his following.

[Lewis]

Most of his party. Michael Gove is the man and everything, but the biggest thing about him backing out is that it might persuade Boris Johnson (still a twat) to do likewise, and maybe some other twats who don't want to blow their future leadership chances.

[Lewis]

Grassroots Out (Nigel Farage Ego Vehicle mk. II) were hosting a shocker of an evening according to Establishment Twitter, and now their mystery 'Special Guest' speaker has been revealed as George Galloway. I think I've probably got more time for Gorgeous George than most, but fucking hell collapse the building around everyone.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Says a lot about David Davis that he's prepared to muck in with those wankers. Gove declaring Leave has rather rubbed them out of the game. Imagine him in a televised debate against whoever Remain choose

[Lewis]

Half of the audience walked out during his speech, so hopefully that lot have blown it now.

[GS]

You have to laugh at Cameron, really. He's managed to put himself in a really quite lol-worthy position here. He'd have been better off not bothering with this "renegotiation" at all.

[Lewis]

This press conference is a low point for Britain. He keeps talking about how we're better off in a 'reformed European Union'. Maybe, but we haven't got that have we you twat?

[GS]

I'm genuinely quite angry about the way he's going on. I know they generally take the average voter to be thick, but you'd need to be dense to consider this anything more than an embarrassment. A British Prime Minster scrabbling around Europe to 'win' a few non-binding 'reforms' which they've chipped away at constantly, all to reach an end game we already knew was coming.

Well done Dave, you wanker.

[Lewis]

So in the end, David Cameron’s attempt to renegotiate Britain’s EU membership served to remind us of the case for leaving: the EU is designed in such a way that almost no sensible proposal can be passed... The resulting deal is a woeful substitute for the fundamental reform that he rightly set out to achieve. They called his bluff, which is bad in itself. But worse, he has now been sent back to London to try to call the bluff of his country.

That covers it nicely, and this conference seems to suggest that they won't even bother to defend the 'deal' in the referendum. They will just SCAREMONGER (arf) and stonewall any lolling at their shit.

[GS]

They'll pivot to wider issues like security and jobs, because they know this 'deal' can be thoroughly torpedoed.

[QE Harold Flair]

Half of the audience walked out during his speech, so hopefully that lot have blown it now.

Half

Twitter might have exaggerated. It looks like about 3-5 people walked out:



And at least one of them was a Jew and a young Theo Paphitis, or however you spell his name.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's the end of Farage's political career, you can't platform with Galloway like it's an acceptable thing.

[Lewis]

France and that Donald Tusk berk have both shat on Dave's claims of treaty change and 'special status'. Do they simply not co-ordinate these things, or are they simply so committed to it that they are incapable and unwilling to attempt even the most elementary bullshit politicking?

[Toby]

Galloway is a genuine embarrassment. I think he alone was responsible for about a five point swing towards an independence vote eighteen months ago. Him being given any sort of grandstand in the debate is about as laughable as June Sarpong appearing on Question Time last night.

I expect I'll vote to stay whenever it comes around but it really is hard to see an argument beyond it suiting me personally. I like the idea that I could totter off to Germany some day to work or study, even if I'm increasingly unlikely to use it. Any downsides just don't affect me enough to care, and I imagine the only way the remain vote will win is if enough people feel the same way.

[QE Harold Flair]

It's the end of Farage's political career, you can't platform with Galloway like it's an acceptable thing.

They've got on fairly well for ages. He has been on Galloway's show a couple of times.

[Jimmy Floyd]

France and that Donald Tusk berk have both shat on Dave's claims of treaty change and 'special status'. Do they simply not co-ordinate these things, or are they simply so committed to it that they are incapable and unwilling to attempt even the most elementary bullshit politicking?

All of them are playing to home audiences, so none of them care. They probably just had a really long game of Cards Against Humanity in the negotiating room.

[phonics]

Harold defending George Galloway is all types of

[ItalAussie]

And at least one of them was a Jew and a young Theo Paphitis, or however you spell his name.

Wait, what?

[Lee]

I'm genuinely quite angry about the way he's going on. I know they generally take the average voter to be thick, but you'd need to be dense to consider this anything more than an embarrassment. A British Prime Minster scrabbling around Europe to 'win' a few non-binding 'reforms' which they've chipped away at constantly, all to reach an end game we already knew was coming.

Well done Dave, you wanker.

Why would you be angry. We all know the 'renegotiation' has been bollocks from the beginning. Cameron would much rather have not bothered at all and I suspect he thought he was in for another coalition with the Lib Dems which would have put a stop to any referendum anyway. He made a promise he never thought he'd have to keep. The referendum won't be about the new terms. There are more important arguments to be made by either side.. That said, I do think some of what he claims to have won - combined with him being popular - will be enough to convince some to vote for remain.

The Galloway stuff is mental. In Farage and Galloway you have two of the least liked politicians in the country sharing a stage. There are good arguments for leaving the EU and the leave lot might well completely fuck it on the basis of having two morons leading their campaign. They'd better hope Johnson chucks his lot in with them. I think he will, so they'll get away with it. But what the fuck were they thinking?

[GS]

I understand 'spin', but there's a point where it moves beyond 'spin' and outright becomes trying to take people for fools. It's like when Labour refused to allow a referendum on some of the treaty changes in their last term.

[phonics]

Best PM of this generation, mate.

[GS]

He's much better than Miliband would have been, so for that we must be thankful.

[QE Harold Flair]

Harold defending George Galloway is all types of

I haven't defended him. I will defend his views on the EU, because he is right.

[QE Harold Flair]

Wait, what?

He says in the video he's an Israeli and starts shouting that he won't listen to Galloway.