Just wonderful.
Just wonderful.
Massive swing back to Clinton.
Has something happened that the BBC haven't reported yet?
I'm gonna make some coffee. Gonna need it.
If Clinton doesn't flip Virginia, you may as well all go to bed.
Much like our economist friends, they just can't predict the future. Which wouldn't be so bad if what they do predict was shrouded in a bit of deference, rather than drowned in hubris.Originally Posted by elth
Lets do that even if he doesn't pull it off.
Michigan is going to be cloooooose.
Virginia too, but Clinton's only down a point with 20% to count.
If that doesn't happen are you worried about what the world will look like tomorrow?If Clinton doesn't flip Virginia, you may as well all go to bed.
Bagsy sucking Mert's cock last.
.....
Were I a gambling man I'd probably have stuck a tenner on Clinton at evens tbh. She still hasn't lost a state she needs.
someone said Trump was at +500 on 5dimes and is now down to +120
Polls.
I'll claim e-victory on that one. They are a media-narrative device and nothing more.
I'd be a bit concerned for the US, and my friends who live there. It won't affect me too much on a personal level. My future is in Australia, to be honest.
Watching foreign politics is a bit like watching sport, really. You pick your team, but it's not going to affect you in the end.
Has Trump either? At this stage, surely it's the momentum and lack of predicted winning margin (for Clinton) at this stage that's more telling.
However this turns out, the country is broken and with luck I won't have to live here for about a decade.
Late campaigning in Michigan by the Republicans might turn out to have been a masterstroke.
No, but if Trump doesn't outperform his predictions, he loses. Right now both are more or less getting what they were predicted to.
On campaign strategy, I don't know what Bill's popularity is like these days, but was it really wise for Hilary to drag a liar and a sex pest around with her on the campaign trail?
.....
Are they? The BBC are saying that Trump's performed much better than was expected.
Paul Krugman is having a Twitter meltdown as he slowly realises most Americans aren't Ivy League elites, so silver linings and that.
Trump 1.9
Clinton 2.2
Biggest gap of the night so far.
That's because they weren't paying enough attention and believed the crap about Clinton winning by 4-5%. She's 2.5% ahead, right on her projections.
It's worth remembering that on live sporting events, fast-changing odds often overshoot the "actual" value. This isn't a sporting event, but with the odds changing so fast, it might be in play.
What's the breakdown of the 2.5%?
Not sure what you mean by that?
You said she's 2.5% ahead still. Based on what?
It does look like Clinton should hold Virginia by a much narrower margin than she'd hope. It might just come down to New Hampshire.
(Assuming that Michigan doesn't shock everyone, which is a long way from out of the question)
One thing to remember with the close states is the rural booths are smaller, and are therefore faster to count and report. Clinton will come from behind in some states as urban votes are added to the tally.
She's 5k behind in Virginia with 14% to count, all of it urban. No guarantees but she should win it.
Arbitrage is a big part of it as well. I definitely think Trump stayed at higher than his actual odds for a while because of people greening/bookies laying off.
Based on her having won 2.5% more of the currently counted and reported votes than Trump.
If this goes to a recount in Florida...
They haven't shown any numbers about third parties, there's no way Johnson gets the 5% right? Is he even going to get 3%?
Mike Pence in to 350 from 1000.
The kind of people who vote on political elections are probably looking for arbitrage opportunity, as well.
If it does go to a recount, I suspect there will be states closer to the mix. Pennsylvania would be my pick.
Worth a tenner honestly.Mike Pence in to 350 from 1000.
That was my plan, but he shortened a lot quicker than I expected and now I think I'm in for the ride.
Appreciate I'm labouring this, but isn't Trump 1m votes (2.0%) ahead in the popular vote?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016/results
Oh there's no doubt loads of that bollocks going on, but his odds are shortening all the time. He's now well into odds on at 1.7 vs. 2.5 to Clinton.
Don't know, I'm going off the NYT live update. Not sure where the BBC are getting their figures from.
The woman on the right of that BBC panel.
Virginia to Clinton according to Fox. It was meant to be Clinton's all the way, would have been a great sign for Trump if he'd won it.
Just as if Clinton won Florida it was over for Trump, if Trump wins Michigan it's over for Clinton. Severely underrated and under polled state.
The big source of popular vote in the west is California which Clinton will win easily.
Clinton's projected popular vote margin under 2% now, which isn't enough given her failure in the swing states.
Markets are tanking.
I reckon Trump's got this, and it'll go down in Michigan. It's certainly not going to be boring.
As you typed that...
Trump 1.3
Clinton 4.0
Clinton still a slight favourite in Michigan, but the voter model there has got it completely wrong. Much much higher rural turnout than anticipated.
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