Am I the only one who finds the constant racial and gender profiling slightly troubling?
Am I the only one who finds the constant racial and gender profiling slightly troubling?
Is he really getting divorced?Originally Posted by Lewis
Once his residency (or whatever it is) is sorted, and they have the money to do it. In the meantime, they're stuck until at least February when their housing contract runs out, barely speaking to each other and living in separate rooms.Is he really getting divorced?
How long did that last?
Trump ahead in Florida with over 90% of the vote in.
itshappening.gif
Where are you seeing that? BBC says 74% of the vote counted there.
Turns out he won the panhandle by more than Clinton won Latinos.
No change in expectations at this stage. Florida was predicted to be 50/50.
Brillo reported it and the Republican campaign guy said the same thing. All on the Beeb's tv coverage.
#thanksbruhdinho
Surely if Trump wins it that's a change from 50/50, no?
In fact, what use is a 50/50 prediction?
It was pretty much exactly two years before he started telling me he was miserable, but he denied it was her for a few months, signed a twelve month housing contract to try forcing them to get things back on track (as you do), and then it blew up within about a month of doing that; but it's obviously in both of their interests to spin it out for long enough to keep him in the country, so it's just rumbling on, dead on its feet.
Virginia is a big worry for Dems. Trump up 5%, albeit with the most Democratic parts of the state not yet reported. But she should win it comfortably if she's going to win the election.
So Trump has crushed Florida. If he takes Ohio / Pennsylvania I'm jumping straight on Twitter to join in the meltdown.
The echos of the referendum vote here are uncanny.
The point is that if Trump won by 10% there would be a clear polling error underestimating his support, making him much more likely to win elsewhere. The polls predicting 50/50 and the result being 50/50 shows that there's no systemic error at this stage, so Clinton should still be ahead overall.
Florida is much more important to Trump than Clinton - if she won it, the election would essentially be over. If she loses, she is still favourite in a close race.
If he pulls it off there would be a strong case for forcibly retiring every pollster, pundit, campaigner, and political scientist until they prove their credibility.
He had a 33% chance according to 538, it's not like this was a landslide.
Betfair odds:
Clinton 1.2
Trump 5.2
Yeah it's over all hail President Clinton.
.....
I put £20 on earlier at 5.7. That was around 6pm. It was out at 12 at one point. On the Exchange, that is. Was tempted to put another tenner on. Should have.
538 is a dickhead. FACT.
Right now:
Clinton 1.36
Trump 3.8
.....
Trump is half way there. According to the Guardian graphic I'm looking at Texas have called their result under a minute after the polls closed. How the fuck can that be?
We are, but none of them have realised.
Electronic voting.
Why doesn't Andrew Neil just shave his fucking head? His hot wife must hate balds.
Trump just dipped under 3. It's narrowing all the time.
Yeah. Why did I not stick another tenner on when he went out to 12?
I'm still kicking myself that I didn't get on Brexit when it was 14/1.Yeah. Why did I not stick another tenner on when he went out to 12?
Same. And it's happening all over again.
Fox just said 85% Trump wins Florida.
Dear God is this what it feels like when it's happening?
That could be the major systemic error Elth was looking for.Donald Trump is ahead in Virginia - that is surprising, and for Democrats a worrying sign. Polls had forecast that Clinton would win the state by a comfortable 5 point margin. On top of the states Republicans can safely consider in the bag, Virginia, plus Florida and North Carolina (where Trump is also ahead), would put him on course to win 209 electoral college votes. If he can add to those results with Georgia, Ohio, Arizona, South Carolina, Iowa and Nevada (all states where he was forecast to win), he can become the next US president.
Clinton underperforming with women in Florida, but hitting or beating her projections in other key states. Still right where it was predicted to be.
Who are you rooting for, Yev?
.....
It is indeed. Betfair is following the exact same pattern it did on the referendum night, with conventional wisdom keeping the favourite ahead, in the face of reality. The BBC's narrative is following the exact same pattern as well.
If I'd mortgaged my future by going balls deep on the savings I could have gone from potentially dying at my desk in my 70s at the start of the year to retiring at the end of it.
Oh and the final nail is the markets soared apparently, exactly as happened in Brexit. City wankers really have no fucking clue.
Clinton 1.91
Trump 2.1
Fucking hell.
I've been watching Fox News coverage and honestly it's much less of a shit show than I thought it'd be on reputation. It's actually decent to watch so far imo.
I struggle to care. Clinton is a patsy in a woman'swear suit and while Trump is technically a moron I struggle to see how he'll do as much damage as has been predicted.
The seethe and outright racism towards Americans when he wins will provide some lols I suppose.
.....
Trump goes favourite.
Where's the fork?
Fuck yeah. :Rand Paul is projected to win his whatever it is. Pepe.
#Rand2020
Trump 1.96
Clinton 2.02
.....
The New York Times predictor was sitting at Clinton 85-88% all night. It's just swung down to Clinton 58%. Those clowns have been wrong about how close this is all year, and still had the cheek to criticise other aggregate models that were giving Trump a higher chance.
Bunch of charlatans.
I missed that. He's drifting out again now.
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