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Thread: U.S. Presidential Election 2016 (Sponsored by Betty Croker's Hamburger Helper)

  1. #10951
    Senior Member mugbull's Avatar
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    Good luck stemming the tide once all the good doctors leave for greener pastures.

  2. #10952
    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    Clearly they need to gas more badgers.

  3. #10953
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Biden now leading in Pennsylvania.

    They might as well officially call it now.

  4. #10954
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Senior Member Bernanke's Avatar
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    Georgia having two run-offs in January for control of the senate is going to be mental.

  7. #10957
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mugbull View Post
    I agree that the best solution for the US is splitting apart, though i guarantee the “heartland” would descend into third-world country status within a couple decades and desperately ask CA and NY for handouts once everybody starts dying of tuberculosis. So maybe it wouldn’t be the best for them
    London likes to tell itself this, as if the pinkos and Islamists wouldn't run it into the ground within ten minutes of having total control.

  8. #10958
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Has anyone ever written a convincing CSA survives counterfactual? All the ones I've seen have it dying within ten years (and it couldn't have won the war to begin with), but I don't know if that's just wishful thinking.

  9. #10959
    Senior Member mugbull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    London likes to tell itself this, as if the pinkos and Islamists wouldn't run it into the ground within ten minutes of having total control.
    They wouldn't.

  10. #10960
    Senior Member mugbull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Has anyone ever written a convincing CSA survives counterfactual? All the ones I've seen have it dying within ten years (and it couldn't have won the war to begin with), but I don't know if that's just wishful thinking.
    The Confederacy would survive longer than that on cotton and tobacco exports to your country alone. Eventually they would fall apart though, mainly due to the fact that no one there had any idea how to organize an actual business or innovate in any way. The war they could've won in the same way guerrilla groups always win had they not suffered from their own inner states rights conflicts

  11. #10961
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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  12. #10962
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    The perception of this election is going to be so different than the reality of it:

    Biden is going to win 306 Electoral College votes to 304 for Trump in 2016.

    When provisional ballots are all counted, final margins are going to be sizable. Trump won 2016 from 75k votes in MI, PA, and WI. Biden will end up winning each of those by 150-250k.

    D’s lost Hispanics!!!! Umm, they won them handily in CA, NV, AZ, NM .... well everywhere but Miami Dade County in Florida and Laredo is n Texas.

    The polls will turn out to be in the margin of error everywhere but Florida and North Carolina .
    And the brilliant politician Trump is going to manage to be only the 5th to lose a second term. The first to lose when his party didn’t lose down ballot. And the first to lose when Gallup’s simple “Are you better off than four years ago?” poll that they started 100 some years ago was over 50%. 60% say they were better off and he lost. He’s an abysmal politician in any category.

    But the narrative will be: close, Hispanics go for R’s, polling doesn’t work, and he has great skill cause a small percent of people love him.

  13. #10963
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Godbless Mike for that post, that's the sort of clear headed and informed analysis every one needs.

  14. #10964
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Sounds to me like Trumpism succeeds in spite of Trump.

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    News stations (well, Sky News) really are crap at explaining the actual data.

    Tell me what the current vote count is, what is left to count, and what the trend of mail-in votes suggests will will happen to that data. Instead they throw to some blonde bint stood in the middle of the road in Washington telling that that people in Roosborough County are rioting.

  16. #10966
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    British news channels don't have the resources to do data stuff, nor the audience to justify it (even for our elections they barely do it). They tend to go in on human drama or whatever. It's easy to underestimate the weight of pointless money there is floating around in the US compared to other countries.

  17. #10967
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    People are too thick to be receptive to 'data stuff'. It took me the best part of a decade to singel-handedly have xG up on MOTD and referred to by TV pundits and still I have to deal with the snide comments about my fetish for data and feet.

  18. #10968
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    I think there is a Trump wing of the R party, a rural wing, and the Ryan / Chamber of Commerce wing. Republicans succeed (get universal control) when they can mobilize all three. They can win the Senate with one, and two can deliver the House but need all three for the Presidency or house. Question is if the Cottons, Hawleys, Cruz’s can pull in the Trump wing or do they just become non-voters.

  19. #10969
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Is there another celebrity floating around who could ape his stardust/charisma? Any sort of career politicians would surely lose a whole heap of the Trumpets.

  20. #10970
    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    The Rock, but I'm assuming he would go for the other team.

  21. #10971
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Is there another celebrity floating around who could ape his stardust/charisma? Any sort of career politicians would surely lose a whole heap of the Trumpets.
    No, because all the people who like Trump like Trump because he hates the same people they hate. Which all these other ones also do.

  22. #10972
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    I don’t think Trumpism is successful even with Trump. You get about a 20-25% chance because you really energize 40% of the Republican base. So maybe you win by 75k votes over three states in a year the director of the FBI says he may have to investigate the opponent 10 days before the election. Outside of that people go “ooh look at the crowds.” But when do votes count more because you bought the merch?

  23. #10973
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    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/06/m...lan/index.html

    Fox News, the cable channel that has been one of President Trump's most important supporters, has instructed its anchors not to call Joe Biden the "President-elect" when the network calls the race, according to two memos obtained by CNN Business.
    The memos said that Fox should "stay away" from using the description, and instead say something Biden has "enough electoral votes to win the presidency."
    The memos emphasized that the network should report moves by Trump's legal teams to challenge the results, despite legal analysts having dismissed potential challenges as having little to no merit.



    Fox are whipped.

  24. #10974
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    I didn't even think Trump and Fox were that in love now. I thought he was all bout the North Korea-style OANN channel.

  25. #10975
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arne View Post
    News stations (well, Sky News) really are crap at explaining the actual data.

    Tell me what the current vote count is, what is left to count, and what the trend of mail-in votes suggests will will happen to that data. Instead they throw to some blonde bint stood in the middle of the road in Washington telling that that people in Roosborough County are rioting.
    Use this - https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-elec...e-changes.html

  26. #10976
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikem View Post
    The perception of this election is going to be so different than the reality of it:

    Biden is going to win 306 Electoral College votes to 304 for Trump in 2016.

    When provisional ballots are all counted, final margins are going to be sizable. Trump won 2016 from 75k votes in MI, PA, and WI. Biden will end up winning each of those by 150-250k.

    D’s lost Hispanics!!!! Umm, they won them handily in CA, NV, AZ, NM .... well everywhere but Miami Dade County in Florida and Laredo is n Texas.

    The polls will turn out to be in the margin of error everywhere but Florida and North Carolina .
    And the brilliant politician Trump is going to manage to be only the 5th to lose a second term. The first to lose when his party didn’t lose down ballot. And the first to lose when Gallup’s simple “Are you better off than four years ago?” poll that they started 100 some years ago was over 50%. 60% say they were better off and he lost. He’s an abysmal politician in any category.

    But the narrative will be: close, Hispanics go for R’s, polling doesn’t work, and he has great skill cause a small percent of people love him.

  27. #10977
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    I've purpousely avoided 99% of coverage because I couldn't take it but knowing Trump is watching every single second of this on on four different TVs is all I need.

  28. #10978
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?

  29. #10979
    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    That's the bit I don't get, there's more people protesting outside than there are counting, get a bunch of lads in and knock the rest out in an afternoon.

  30. #10980
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?
    It is utterly ridiculous. There's one state with something like 4,000 ballots on hand to count and they bothered to announce that when one person could have just counted them in an hour or two.

  31. #10981
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?
    Some states were able to count the mail in votes 2 weeks before but a lot weren't which is why they have a huge backlog now and why it's taking so long.

    Some of those mail ins can be counted by a machine, others can't, some are able to count 24/7, some aren't etc etc.

  32. #10982
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Some states seem to have a lot more red tape too.

    Basically most states were seriously underprepared to deal with the obvious surge in mail in votes compared to previous elections.

  33. #10983
    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Without the virus, how comfortably would Trump have won?

  34. #10984
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    I think he would have won about ninety per cent of the vote, and it would only be that low because of the voter fraud.

  35. #10985
    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Sounds about right.

  36. #10986
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    Surely he's won about 90% of the LEGAL votes right now?

  37. #10987
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe View Post
    Without the virus, how comfortably would Trump have won?
    *if he had handled the virus with even a single degree of competence

  38. #10988
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    What’s the story now? Is it near over yet?

  39. #10989
    I used to be funny.
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    Pennsylvania reckon they might be finished tonight. If that turns Blue, Biden's in. Georgia's doing a recount.

  40. #10990
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The very few world leaders who handle the pandemic well will clean up at an election, as seen in NZ.

    To be fair to whoever is President of the US, I don't think it would even theoretically be possible to contain it there, the place is an absolute zoo.

  41. #10991
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    Yeah, it's long gone. They let it loose for the best part of six months and it's only the likes of Hawaii, Alaska and New York have managed to contain it.

  42. #10992
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikem View Post
    I don’t think Trumpism is successful even with Trump. You get about a 20-25% chance because you really energize 40% of the Republican base. So maybe you win by 75k votes over three states in a year the director of the FBI says he may have to investigate the opponent 10 days before the election. Outside of that people go “ooh look at the crowds.” But when do votes count more because you bought the merch?
    Mate, your stiff's getting in. No need for this level of [retrospective] seethe.

  43. #10993
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    The very few world leaders who handle the pandemic well will clean up at an election, as seen in NZ.
    Our one [although not a world leader obviously] won the popular vote to get back in and has subsequently been unceremoniously dumped from all positions of actual power by underhanded internal deals by his rivals.

    But then, politicians are only really as good as their science guys/geographical good fortune.

  44. #10994
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    Just as much seethe toward my own side. The next two years will be:

    McConnell passes stimulus during the lame duck then bottles things up in the Senate.

    Democrats whine and complain and yammer about changing the Electoral College and packing the Court and structural reform when they know they need 60 seats.

    Then in a couple cycles when R’s win again they will complain that African Americans only 85-15 in their favor and Hispanics 65-35. When outreach was just “hey black person - prison bad - you are all in prison right?” There hasn’t been any rural outreach of any kind but “hmm why do you vote against your interests?” Since the 80’s.

    Nothing much will pass and we’ll do this all again in 4-8 years. All because Trump is the only person worse than. Democrats at politics.

  45. #10995
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Is there any danger of anyone having the balls to call any of these states that Biden won easily three days ago?

  46. #10996
    Senior Member mugbull's Avatar
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    Usually you're pretty insightful but i completely disagree with your characterization of Trump. He's phenomenal at politics. He got elected despite the entire party machinery being against him throughout the primaries simply because he connected with voters in a way that someone like John Kasich never could. He single-handedly changed the ideological platform of the party. He's not good in the traditional *bipartisan* sense, but he's amazing in the way that he's constructed politics. And he only lost this time round because of Corona; as others have mentioned you'll see incumbents lose worldwide due to that.

  47. #10997
    Senior Member randomlegend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mugbull View Post
    Usually you're pretty insightful but i completely disagree with your characterization of Trump. He's phenomenal at politics. He got elected despite the entire party machinery being against him throughout the primaries simply because he connected with voters in a way that someone like John Kasich never could. He single-handedly changed the ideological platform of the party. He's not good in the traditional *bipartisan* sense, but he's amazing in the way that he's constructed politics. And he only lost this time round because of Corona; as others have mentioned you'll see incumbents lose worldwide due to that.
    This is bollocks. He just IS an idiot, racist, boomer so idiots, racists and boomers have voted for him. Unfortunately that accounts for half the people in the US OF A.

  48. #10998
    Senior Member mugbull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by randomlegend View Post
    This is bollocks. He just IS an idiot, racist, boomer so idiots, racists and boomers have voted for him. Unfortunately that accounts for half the people in the US OF A.
    I don't think you understand. Being good at politics is being good at winning. I wish it was about coalition building etc but fundamentally it's not.

  49. #10999
    Senior Member randomlegend's Avatar
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    That's like saying someone is PHENOMONAL at wearing a XXXL t-shirt because they are fat.

  50. #11000
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    If Trump was doing it all knowingly he would definitley be a genius. As it is, he's simply fluked greatness thanks to the way society has developed.

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