The Betting Thread

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

They still haven't put up the Qatar Masters though.

[Baz]

If Cheltenham’s cancelled cos of this equine herpesvirus outbreak, I mightn’t make it to 21st June.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair have the Qatar masters up now but the odds aren't great again, however they are doing 7 places over Bet365's 5 places.

Jazz at only 56 is a bit shit though.

[Manc]

If Cheltenham’s cancelled cos of this equine herpesvirus outbreak, I mightn’t make it to 21st June.

Didn't a similar thing happen in 2019? Calm your fears.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Betfair have the Qatar masters up now but the odds aren't great again, however they are doing 7 places over Bet365's 5 places.

Jazz at only 56 is a bit shit though.

He is in to 66 now on 365 as well. I did think 100 was mental (though didn't notice 5 places, being a 365 virgin). This is why I do all the prep on Friday/Saturday and have it ready to whizz as soon as the markets open Monday lunchtime or so. Hope a few of you got on.

66 is about the right price for him so wouldn't take him shorter.

[Waffdon]

Didn't a similar thing happen in 2019? Calm your fears.

Cheltenham has been in doubt for about five years running

[Baz]

If Conners could chip, we’d all be a bit richer.

[Jimmy Floyd]

No better Thursday feeling than logging on (no pun intended) for the early scores and seeing him up there with Westy again.

He actually made a water par and holed out with his second shot for eagle early on so quite lucky to be where he is.

[Manc]

Had a nibble on Paisely in Qatar. Strong start.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If I ever put Rahm up again, someone set the dogs on me.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I really do love the 17th hole here. I could happily watch a live stream of just that hole.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Playing a bit windmill crazy golf on that green today, but whatever, it's nice to see them have to actually think through their shot rather than just aim and fire like it is at most American courses.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Rahm reeling The Computer back in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rahm can do what he likes, an out-of-form Brian Harman compiling a cosy 67 for solo second on the first day of THE PLAYERS after I put him up at 200/1 is proof of supernatural forces I think.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Harman still doing well.

[Kikó]

Rahm is in the mix.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

This is shaping up too nicely right now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Mon the Mig.

Also, for some reason Betfair allowed me to cash out of my Tree bet despite him being at +7 or something after yesterday.

Edit: Fuck the Frenchie Rozner. Place is still very nice with hopefully more to come in America later.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Guido winning that would have been beyond outrageous, so delighted with the place at that price. Had almost given up on it after two days.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I was sure he was going to a playoff at the very least.

Didn't think Rozner had a chance at the 1 putt.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I think Conners could win it.

Especially if he can get into the clubhouse at 13 under.

Westwood could struggle later if the greens dry up.

Edit: He's fucked it with the missed eagle & birdie putts on the 16th.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd completely given up on him tbh. What a day.

[Kikó]

Shame Im had such a rotten R3 because he was great as well today.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'd completely given up on him tbh. What a day.

Yeah, I thought he was gone but he's had a storming day which could have been so much better.

Looks like it's Thomas' to lose now but potentially 3 places (Rahm is shitting his pants again) is on the cards.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Shame Im had such a rotten R3 because he was great as well today.

He fucked it on the back 9 yesterday. He was doing alright at +1 but went for +4 on his final 8 holes.

[Kikó]

Harman seems like he wants a nibble. Go on lad.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Rahm is infuriating to watch.

He's constantly fluctuating between "he's fucked it" and "he's right back into it".

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Justin Thomas needs to find some water.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Even though I won't get the winner, I can't remember sizing up a tournament as well as this. They are/were all set up to have a sniff at it.

Masters again soon for some failure, sigh.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Harman with a glorious tee shot on the 17th.

He could be in with a chance if he puts it in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Updated 2021 record after places for Conners and Harman there:

81 golfers backed, 3 wins, 15 places
150pts staked (10 per tournament)
316.09pts returned - profit 166.09pts
ROI: +110.73%

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Another cracking weekend.

[Lofty]

Thanks again Jim!

[Jimmy Floyd]

Going from that to the Magical Kenya Open is going to be a wild ride so enjoy the good times, is all I can say.

[Kikó]

Thanks Jim. I should start putting some real money on this so I can change your strike rate.

[Jimmy Floyd]

P/L by player

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Na 79.20
Casey 48.00
Hatton 28.80
Conners 23.50
Migliozzi 21.00
Harman 19.50
Garnett 18.00
Smith 12.75
Rose 9.00
Simpson 2.80
Garcia 2.80
Finau 2.60
Cantlay 0.80
McIlroy 0.40
Day -0.28
Els -0.50
Rodgers -0.50
McCarthy -0.50
Ventura -0.50
Frittelli -0.50
Schwartzel -0.50
van Driel -0.50
Tree -0.50
D.Lee -0.60
Huh -0.80
Moore -0.80
Dahmen -0.80
Horschel -1.00
Piercy -1.00
Perez -1.00
List -1.00
Bramlett -1.00
Coetzee -1.00
Rock -1.00
Brehm -1.00
Kitayama -1.00
Kanaya -1.00
Vegas -1.00
Hall -1.00
Baker -1.00
Howell III -1.00
Todd -1.00
Grillo -1.00
Schenk -1.50
Hossler -1.50
Muñoz -2.00
Bradley -2.00
Scheffler -2.00
Niemann -2.00
Ancer -2.00
An -2.00
Pendrith -2.00
Burgoon -2.00
Im -2.00
Janewattananond -2.00
Veerman -2.00
Tringale -2.18
Reed -3.00
Fowler -3.00
Zalatoris -3.00
Otaegui -3.00
D.Johnson -4.00
Champ -4.00
Gooch -4.00
W.Clark -4.00
Matsuyama -4.00
DeChambeau -4.00
Schauffele -4.00
English -5.00
Rahm -7.60

Rahm and me are going to have to have a chat at some point.

[Baz]

15 points profit from Migliozzi, Harman and Conners. Thanks a lot.

[Waffdon]

There’s gonna be 4 runner races at Cheltenham at this rate

[Baz]

Aye.


Skybet doing the £10 “back as cash if your horse loses” for the Supreme (first race..)

Paddy Power doing a similar offer, only they’ve already said they’ll be doing it for the first race everyday (Sky usually scrap it) but it’s only £5. Need £10 in your account though, it seems.

Remember to do WIN only so you get your full stake back.

And don’t fall for any of the “money back if your horse finishes second” SCAMS.

I’ve done Ballyadam on Sky and Soaring Glory on Paddy Power, because I think Appreciate It (I’ve made a spreadsheet to tell me all the winners) will definitely win but not worth the tiny payout. ��

[Manc]

I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.

[Waffdon]

Aye.


Skybet doing the £10 “back as cash if your horse loses” for the Supreme (first race..)

Paddy Power doing a similar offer, only they’ve already said they’ll be doing it for the first race everyday (Sky usually scrap it) but it’s only £5. Need £10 in your account though, it seems.

Remember to do WIN only so you get your full stake back.

And don’t fall for any of the “money back if your horse finishes second” SCAMS.

I’ve done Ballyadam on Sky and Soaring Glory on Paddy Power, because I think Appreciate It (I’ve made a spreadsheet to tell me all the winners) will definitely win but not worth the tiny payout. ��

Paddy Power are just giving it to everybody. Ladbrokes have a £5 free bet but it’s impossible to do any ew yankee bets unless you have money on your account as the system calculates it weird.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Golf w/e 21 March

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Honda Classic

The last stop on the Florida Swing, this was a particularly enjoyable event last year, one of the last gasps before the pandemic struck, and was won by Sungjae Im. This year will be a little more subdued with all the big names having the week off after THE PLAYERS and the great events that preceded it, with most returning for the Matchplay in Austin next week. As a result this week's field is not the strongest by PGA Tour standards but offers a ticket to the Masters for those not qualified, and sometimes this is where the computer can strike. PGA National is a pretty fun layout featuring the so-called 'Bear Trap' holes towards the end. Wind can often play a part.

Tringale 33/1
Huh 80/1
Long 90/1
Hoag 100/1
McCarthy 100/1
Lebioda 300/1

Magical Kenya Open

Like most national opens, this is an old event but this will only be its second time having European Tour status. This year, for the sake of filling up the schedule, it's immediately followed (with a Tuesday start!) by a second tournament at the same course (I'll do that one next week after we've seen the first one). The whole thing, from the name to the venue to everything else about it, feels a bit like a fever dream and the field is a bizarre mashup of various decent to low level Europeans, a batch of 18 Kenyan golfers, and a smattering of low world ranked players from other African countries. I've gone for a pair of big-hitting saffas as my main selections, and smaller stakes advised on five other longer shots.

Burmester 35/1
Nienaber 45/1
Vincent 70/1
Meronk 100/1
Kruyswijk 175/1
Enoch 200/1
Tree 350/1

[Baz]

£78.50 up after day one of Cheltenham. Not bad.

[Manc]

Not bad at all. Galvin pulling it out the fire saved me a loss (thanks Goshen).

Plenty of value flying around tommorrow. Queen Mother should be a cracker.

[Baz]

I should be more up really because of Vintage Clouds but my bet was diluted down to 10/1 with extra places.

[Waffdon]

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Had the exact same four fold but with Happygolucky instead of Appreciate It for £350. Gutting. Only deposited £15 all of which was on bet365 but only just about broke even there. Tomorrow looks like a favourites day again (yuck) but I’m on the following:

Bravemansgame W/O fav, Tiger Roll W/O fav, Sir Gerhard W/O fav, Blue Sari and Ibleo to be placed @ 170/1
Bob Olinger, Easyland, Sir Gerhard, Sporting John W/O fav and Nube Negra W/O fav @ 260/1
King’s Temptation, First Flow, Dysart Diamond, Duc Des Genierevs, Ramillies EW Yankee for millions
Sporting John, Ibleo, Nube Negra, Blue Sari EW Yankee

Then a few variations of the above. Quite like the look of Entoucas and Grand Roi

[Baz]

TIGER ROLL

[Manc]

Charlie Deutsch wants shooting for that ride he gave Ibleo. Absolute tosser.

[Waffdon]

That Entoucas was saving the day there. Fuck sake. Blue Sari would have came close too if he didn’t fall. We go again.

[Baz]

Yeah write off today.

A decent win in Huntingdon saved my balance.