£1.73 on Burnley & Chelsea double. Returns £15 and change.
£1.73 on Burnley & Chelsea double. Returns £15 and change.
Tempted to put my life savings on Burnley. 9/5
I'm a twit
Us as favourites away to Burnley is scandalous
£40 on Burnley (7/4 now)
£10 on Liverpool 1-0, Milner to score (60/1)
I'm a twit
Played for the Burnley mini train, chaps.
Wish I had gone in
Adam Etches to win by KO 3/1
:train:
LOST ON POINTS
I feel like @SincereTheRebel
I'm a twit
£5 Huddersfield @2.2
50p Swansea @15
£1 Swansea-Man City draw @7
Longshot £5 treble of Man Utd + next week Stoke and Burnley.
Burnley will probably lose but they're at 9.something and at home.
Oxford at evens away at Swindon or 12/5 to win to nil. Free money, basically.
£5 on Hull @ 11
£5 on Hull and BTTS @ 19
£5 on Grosicki AGS @ 5.5.
£10 on Draw at HT 2.75
Just spent a couple of weeks watching every 2. Bundesliga game this season and compiling a hell of a spreadsheet. Hopefully not been a massive waste of time. A couple of small bets this weekend to test the waters:
Dynamo Dresden DNB at 1.74
Bochum +0.5, +1 asian at evens.
What does your day-to-day job actually look like Dino?
Do you just rumble through stats and team news, or is there something a bit more mathematical probability behind it?
Is it solely football you bet on?
I only ever put on like £5-10 worth of accumulators each weekend and it makes my saturday a bit more exciting.
Do you ever fire on accumulators of tips or is it finding value in singles/doubles?
Some combination of stats, team news, highlights/streams and tedious spreadsheet data entry mostly. Depends on what's on. I've only recently started dabbling in the more mathsy stuff. Most serious gamblers I know place their bets based on personal judgement rather than what their equations tell them to. I'd like to be somewhere in the middle.Originally Posted by Foe
I only do football (and eurovision) but I follow some people who know their shit in other sports.
Just singles, I do accumulators every so often for a laugh if I can be arsed.
What do you keep in your spreadsheets?
Often just stuff like appearance data, especially where not available readily in one place online. They're generally just for visualising/digesting data though.
Dresden was an extremely poor bet, oh dear. Hoping for more from Bochum tomorrow or it's all going in the bin (maybe).
I'd have thought 'the market' has access to all the stats and data it needs, so the only edge presumably comes from insider knowledge or exceptional judgement.
If there was any liquidity for side markets on domestic first class cricket I'd bloody clean up ffs.
It'll be interesting to see. I do alright on the most mainstream stuff going so I'm fairly confident it'll be worthwhile long term, spreadsheet upkeep shouldn't be more than a few hours a week. Should more of a level playing field in terms of availability of data/heuristics compared to the premier league anyway.
I imagine a lot of the betting will occur early on, when liquidity is small (too small for the deepest pockets/sharpest money to bother). But then limits are so huge in the 12 hours prior to kick off that I think it takes a good 6 figures to move a price much. I'm sure Tony Bloom's lot and their PhD have their mitts on this stuff but I wonder how much value there will be left after them. Or even provided by them where opinions clash.
I was reading the Numbers game and it says football is one of the poorest things to bet on as the probability of the favourite winning is much lower than in other similar sports (e.g. basketball). I'd bin it off Dino and delve into something that's a little less stacked against you.
That issue can be solved by not exclusively betting on favourites.
It's a bad sport for betting on because of random shit like red cards and penalties and the worse team scoring happen, but I know a lot more about it than Badminton. It being pretty impossible to get your money on minor sports with any reliabilty is probably a bigger factor though.
The only alternatives really are things like tennis, NBA or horses, and I have neither a desire nor a clue where to start.
My biggest success in football was laying the correct scores. If you've got a 4 figure bank to start with, you can clean up as long as you're sensible about managing your stake and what you bet on.
The NBA when I was a student was my favourite betting period though. With very little real knowledge, it became so clear to me when momentum suddenly swung in the games - especially when the favourite was behind. I remember a Cavs game where I won a few grand by backing at 100/1 when they were down by 20 odd in the fourth, because you could sense that as soon as they got a few turnovers in a row, they'd turn it around.
There's nothing more amusing/bewildering than casually being in a Betfair football market with £10 or £20 on and suddenly you hear the galloping of hooves and it's Lord Chunkington dumping £200,000 on the opposite way to you.
CL outright
£10 PSG @7
Put a treble on:
CL winner, FA Cup finalist, relegated: Leicester
I'm a twit
The Bet365 £50 free bet offer is on for Bayern vs Arsenal tonight, if anyone cares.
Shoved £20 on over 0.5 goals.
Can I put the risk free bet on 0-0 / no goal scorer or will that bork the system?
You can, yeah. They say you can't, but everybody does it.
I've just shoved £3 on at 15 on WilliamHill.
So If it's 0-0 I'm up £22.
It it's not 0-0 I'm down about £2.50, but I've still got my free in play bet which I'll probably chuck on Lewandowski to score.
I haven't used my bet365 account in ages. Turns out I had a limit set on deposits for £25 a day so I've only got £25 on over 0.5. Not sure what I'll go for with the free in-play bet.
Why don't you just do the £50? You can't lose. The safest option is along the same lines as Foe. £50 on over 0.5 on Bet365, then £5 on 0-0 somewhere else. Then you've got £50 to stick on whatever you want in-play.
Doesn't an own goal fuck you over in that situation?
Just testing the water with this one to make sure I don't make an arse of it.
What? I can't put any more than £25 into my account at the minute because of a limit I set myself ages ago.
I've removed the limit but it takes 24 hours for that to come into effect.
I meant Foe.
£5 Bayern and BTTS-No @2.3
Bayern are too short tonight I think. Results have flattered in the league recently and this feels like exactly the type of game Arsenal show up for. Had a little on +1.5.
They don't credit you with a free bet, you use your own funds and they refund it if it loses.
Put £50 on Bayern as the refundable bet @ 1.4
Gone big for the freebie with 4-1 @ 13
Free in play
£5 Bayern 3-1 @5
Three mates had BTTS in the First Half there, combined £825 or something like that.
Lewandowski.
Will keep an eye out for these bets again and go balls deep.
Mellin must be fucking shitting himself right now.
Oh, I thought it was at me because of the 'same lines as Foe' bit. My bad.
Anyway, I just woke up and haven't placed my in-play bet yet. Is it still available? I can't find where it is.
That solves that riddle.
Melin ain't no melon.
Hope he cashed that puppy out.
No
Was £430 last time I checked.
Olympiacos, Ludogrets and Ajax/Warsaw BTTS at 9.something treble.
Just to give the games tonight a bit of interest.
Off to a flier.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
