The Betting Thread

[Don]

Been eyeing this up for months now. On Thursday South Korea host us in a WCQ. Both sides have qualified so not too important but both sides will be motivated for the game. South Korea team news I'm not 100% on but they're close to full-strength. Iran are missing 3 key starters. More importantly, Iran continue to look like shit and rely on their 2 front-men who are admittedly elite level to save their asses. South Korea will dominate possession and territory and our defence is a shambles. I can't find any prices yet, I'm expecting 1.9-2.3 for SK at which point I'm unloading heavy.

[Ben]

I followed John in on Vietnam second tier the other day so I’d be rude not to go in on this as well.

[Don]

Taremi (one of our elite 2) has just tested positive for COVID. This would have been glorious but I suspect the price is gonna tumble to about 1.6 now ffs. Handicaps here we go.

[Don]

Jahanbakhsh now fallen to COVID too, anything over 1.5 is still value.

[Ben]

A nice win at the Valspar. Burns was way overpriced at 25. Just missed out on an EW as well but not sure how I can ask my predictor to account for randomers like NeSmith and Riley to play like Ben Hogan for two and a half days.

Match Play this week. Ugh.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I love the Match Play. Always some absolute bolter who comes through, I won an absolute shitload on Victor Perez a couple of years ago.

I'm here for Blandy demolishing all comers.

[Ben]

Depending on odds, I'll probably be on Im, Power and Gooch.

[Don]

https://oddspedia.com/football/iran-...orea-1265#odds

We eating good on Thursday

[Ben]

Win outright odds are out for Match Play. Russell Henley @ 55 is just obscene. Going fairly big on that one. My predictor actually has him top of the pile (just above Thomas).

Also going for Im @ 40, Gooch @ 66 and Power @ 110.

Mackenzie Hughes is way overpriced @ 140 so there'll be some good odds on him in his individual matches.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Russell Henley as outright favourite for this would be the work of a fairly eccentric predictor.

I would be all over Cam Smith again except I'm never sure how much he can be arsed with certain events. Might well be interested in his fellow Aussie Lucas Herbert for an outside run, especially if the wind blows. Got to wait for the draw though really.

[Baz]

Destination: South Korea

[Ben]

Smith isn't on the entry list I've got?

Henley is high up in all the stats this year (top 10) and after weighting it for recent form and course he's just a shade above the rest (like almost level with Thomas). Admittedly it doesn't account for weather or bottling it on the big stage and I've never ran it on a match play before so this could go horribly wrong, but I'm well up with it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You're right, he isn't, I was looking at two weeks old list from twitter. Proving my point about how arsed he is, I suppose.

From the top of the market I quite fancy DJ, has bullied the shit out of Austin in the past, and his odds will be better than ever.

[Ben]

No Smith or "Rorz" but the rest are there.

Also on the South Korea train @ 2.25.

[Don]

Ray's lot have bottled it and only allowed me £500 on FT and £150 on -1. Soft shites.

[Baz]

Rozner, kinhult, campillo, lemke, soderberg and valimaki

From Brad Todd’s patreon

[Ben]

What's everyone's preference for betting on the early rounds of the Match Play? Individual match bets, Lucky 15/31/63, accumulator?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The results are so random that I don't go in too hard on the individual matches, might as well just go and play a fruit machine. Group winners a more interesting bet.

[Manc]

Kisner 45/1
Casey 33/1

8 places EW for both.

[Baz]

The results are so random that I don't go in too hard on the individual matches, might as well just go and play a fruit machine. Group winners a more interesting bet.

Anything in Qatar?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Broberg, if you can get him for three figures

[Ben]

Tringale to win Group 3, Thomas to win Group 6, Henley to win Group 14, Lowry to win group 16.

[Baz]

Spieth and Keegan dishing out gimmes. Might as well play with each others cocks.

[Ben]

I'm surprised my predictor gave either of those two any chance, but 0.83% and 0.36% for two major champions shows where they're at.

[Baz]

It’s an account closer but there’s an easy arb at Sedgefield 16:47 tomorrow.

Tim Pat ran today so only 2 horses left. Back them both to win.
£495 @ 15/8 rule 4 is £1005 back
£315 @ 4/1 rule 4 is £1008 back
£810 staked guaranteed £1005 back

[Ben]

Why have they suddenly started races going off at odd times (ie. not 0 or 5 minute intervals)?

[Manc]

Rozner, kinhult, campillo, lemke, soderberg and valimaki

From Brad Todd’s patreon

Following on Campillo 55/1 & Valikami 100/1.

[Ben]

Just realised there's an alternate event in Dominican Republic. The field is actually decent. I'm on Hubbard @ 34, Duncan @ 61 and Armour @ 81.

Bollocks to Qatar. Can't find the win outright market on 365 for some reason (because it's started?).

[Don]

Get on Japan before second half kicks off to enlarge the South Korea funds.

I'm up to about £2k staked and will hit 3 if Japan come in

[Baz]

89’ and 90+4’

[Don]

£100 on SK, Son FGS, Over 2.5 at 21 should have paid out but all went to plan otherwise. £50 to £6K in 3 weeks, I'll start the thread with deets of how you can all pay me £500 this evening.

[Baz]

Easy win. Ta.

[Baz]

It’s an account closer but there’s an easy arb at Sedgefield 16:47 tomorrow.

Tim Pat ran today so only 2 horses left. Back them both to win.
£495 @ 15/8 rule 4 is £1005 back
£315 @ 4/1 rule 4 is £1008 back
£810 staked guaranteed £1005 back

The favourite fell. Easy money.

[Baz]

View Tweet

[Ben]

I'm going to parrot Henley again. He's not even on the list so he will be long odds yet his SG is way up there (>2 maybe). Lowry too.

[Ben]

DJ is looking good today. He's flying up the stats sheets, I've a feeling he'll be a good bet come the Masters.

[Ben]

Bland

[Manc]

Kisner.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Kisner

That chip shot onto the green at 18 was beautiful.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Kisner is a joke at this event.

Masters is so hard to call. Field gets wider every year. I like Cam Smith...

[Ben]

I'm with you on Smith but DJ is looking better every week now. I might get on him instead if the odds are favourable.

[Ben]

Just had a spy of the Valero Texas Open field list during a meeting and it's completely wide open. Matsuyama is probably the favourite (lol at Rory's odds) but I can't commit money to a guy who invariably leaves his putter in Japan; if he actually does bring it then I would expect him to be up there.

I'm going to go with Chris Kirk and a few others TBD.

[Manc]

Thought we had it with Kisner. We go again.

[Don]

Some tasty picks again tomorrow.

South Korea are once again evens, this time away to UAE. UAE fighting for qualification and likely to need something from this but the gulf in class is too much.

Iraq away to Syria at above evens. Iraq 1 point behind UAE so must win game for them. Syria aren't too shabby but I watched Iraq's last game and their new manager has them playing extremely good, the market hasn't factored that in yet.

Nigeria at above evens against Ghana. They should have won the first leg and there's a serious gulf in class here too. It's African football so you could always get the unexpected or some actual corruption like what the Mali guy did in their qualifier against Tunisia but Nigeria at home should storm it.

I've gone a little greedy and threw a mix of Iran/Japan/France() into some accies but money should be made.

[Lofty]

Mon the 6 fold.

[Offshore Toon]

Let's roll.

[Manc]

Followed on the treble.

[John Arne]

I just put a tenner on Vietnam at 20. Away to Japan. Japan nothing to play for, and even though Vietnam are crap - there's always that one time.

[Don]

Japan look like rotating too

[John Arne]

They are also treating it as a victory parade. Full house, party mode. 1-0 Nam.