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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #4101
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    £2.77 EW on them all.
    I'm a twit

  2. #4102
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Betfair Sportsbook have the American's priced very generously.

    Rahm @ 7.5, Champ @ 46, Clark @ 126(!) and Bramlett @ 401(!).

  3. #4103
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I'll say once again that I quote Coral's odds which are almost always total shit, but that actually assists me in terms of being choosy about selections and sticking to the real value as opposed to borderline players who might otherwise be tempting.

  4. #4104
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    It seems to happen a lot less these days anyway.

    The Abu Dhabi ones are all at the exact same price.

  5. #4105
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    American Express

    This is a slightly odd one. Much like Hawaii last week it's normally a pretty run of the mill event which would not attract the HUGE names, but this year Jon Rahm is playing and the market is a mess as a result. If he doesn't win, whoever does will do so at a tasty price. The computer likes Rahm so much that even his short price favourite status is seen as amazing value, so we're on him, and then I've gone with a few bigger priced citizens too.

    Rahm 6/1
    Champ 40/1
    Clark 80/1
    List 200/1
    Bramlett 300/1
    Wipe this out as Rahm has now withdrawn. Probably stick with most or all the others but will have to do a re-calculation.

  6. #4106
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Is that why the event appears to have disappeared off Betfair?

    Guess everyone's odds will be getting a serious shave so Mahow may be sitting pretty on some of those.

  7. #4107
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Yes, it will be.

    From memory I'm fairly sure Champ will still be value in the new field, but I'll have to have a look at those further up the tree. I have never yet had the Code Red situation in which Tony Finau shows up as value, not sure what I'll do then, probably notify Interpol.

  8. #4108
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Glad I went balls deep on the market as soon as Jim gave us the good word. Got Bramlett at 500s on Sky Bet.

  9. #4109
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Champ has moved to 41 (so same price as the original Coral price).

    No other Jimmy selection has moved in the American Express.

  10. #4110
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    American Express v2

    Champ 40/1
    Gooch 66/1
    Clark 80/1
    Schenk 175/1
    List 200/1
    Bramlett 300/1

    Computer doesn't like any of the favourites sans Rahm, so we're spreading our stakes a bit thinner.

  11. #4111
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Hatton is looking quite good here.

  12. #4112
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Think he's in pretty handy shape, unlike Cam Champ.

    That Bob Hope / Amex tournament is a fucking crapshoot if ever there was one. Sure enough Big Tony is in-running fav, pass me the smelling salts. Three of the six at least haven't spewed their guts all over the first round which is a bonus really.

  13. #4113
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Hopefully Hatton can win it tomorrow as I have more money (and his odds are better) on him but it's looking quite good heading into day 4. Coetzee also is currently in a dead heat place too so if he can pull away from the pack that would be lovely.

  14. #4114
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The way I stake (at least on paper) is I give myself 5pts per tournament and distribute them accordingly. In this I have 2pts each on McIlhatton and half a point on Coetzee and Rock. Normally it's much more even but this was a clearly topheavy field (he says smugly before his men placed 1-2 fuck it tomorrow and David Lipsky wins).

  15. #4115
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Few quid back on Rory too.

    Thanks Jim.

  16. #4116
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Yep, thanks again Jim. The Computer could end up being the TTH pension fund at this rate.

  17. #4117
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Vitaly Janelt 6/1 to be booked.

    Edit- nope
    Last edited by Baz; 24-01-2021 at 03:53 PM.
    I'm a twit

  18. #4118
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Cheers Jim!

  19. #4119
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Hatton is an ice cold killer. Executed McIlroy in that head to head today. Can't wait for the next time the computer likes him (probably in America).

  20. #4120
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Farmers Insurance

    I always like this tournament because it's at Torrey Pines, which was the only available course on Microsoft Golf, which was the only game installed on the Windows 95 when my parents first got a computer in 1995. It's ace: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAC3Asz8zV4

    The US Open will also be held on this course later in the year so it's a bit surprising that only McMince and Rahm of the top, top names are playing. Anyway, I despise what the computer has come up with for this, but Big Dick Rick really needs something asap to get his career going again, and it looks like my ride or die relationship with Hideki is back on. His putting remains a bomb scare but the rest of his game is genuinely world class and projects for results. It'll happen one day.

    Matsuyama 22/1
    Fowler 55/1
    W.Clark 100/1
    Tringale 125/1
    Brehm 400/1

    Dubai Desert Classic

    I'm not sure why Morikawa is playing in this, but he is, so there you are - he's about the only bloke with a Japanese name that I won't be backing this week. Hatton leads the market but without the twin titans of last week pushing his price out, the value isn't quite there. Instead we're going with a pincer attack with overpriced duo Paul 'cool beans' Casey and one of our autumn winners Sergio Garcia, as well as a complete left field selection in Japanese youngster Takumi Kanaya, who is making his European Tour debut. Tasteless rice wine for everyone.

    Casey 20/1
    Garcia 22/1
    Kitayama 100/1
    Kanaya 125/1
    Els 300/1

  21. #4121
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    Arigato.

  22. #4122
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Cheers Jim.

  23. #4123
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Spurs -1 AH @6.4

  24. #4124
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Sit the fuck down, lad.

  25. #4125
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Casey

    The Computer has started 2021 on fire.

  26. #4126
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I'm a bit miffed about Kanaya narrowly missing a place, but three wins in three weeks is scenes.

  27. #4127
    Pretty Much Amazing Mike's Avatar
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    Won me a cool £15

  28. #4128
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    I'm a bit miffed about Kanaya narrowly missing a place, but three wins in three weeks is scenes.
    Can you see anyone in America pulling their finger out from here?

    Tringale & Clark the closest but they're still 4 shots behind the placing right now and there are some big names in and around there.

    Looks a bit of a write off at the moment.

  29. #4129
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Think -9 will be the lowest score for a place (maybe -10), so will need a low one. I can't see it.

    The main interest over there is Patrick Reed being caught cheating (yet again) yesterday and the fallout as he currently shares the lead.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 31-01-2021 at 02:50 PM.

  30. #4130
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Cheers Jimmy again!

  31. #4131
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It's a bit of a lucky run but at the same time, it's gone on long enough now that when I read the big name tipsters each week and see their (heavily researched, well thought-out) takes for considerably less results than I am getting in about 1/10th of the time spent, it makes me think this stuff is sometimes simpler than people make it.

    I'm obviously not going to give away exactly what I do but there are basically three important variables that go into it (all using readily available information), and half the time I think these people are trying to involve about 20 variables, most of which are useless noise. For instance, no one went near Casey this week because he's had a long flight. Why? Why would a long flight (in first class) stop you from playing good golf days later?

    Now for a six month losing run to prove I'm talking bollocks, but whatever.

  32. #4132
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Top work again Jim, cheers.

  33. #4133
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Be interested to see if The Computer doesn’t pick Justin Thomas.
    I'm a twit

  34. #4134
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It won't this week but rest assured the only things that go into the computer are golfing information. What it spits out is up to it.

  35. #4135
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    How mathsy is the computer, Jimmy?

  36. #4136
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    How mathsy is the computer, Jimmy?
    Not terribly. The bookies will have better, and they cover most inefficiencies with their overround anyway. Although I'm up a fair bit since I started using this (around 100%, I think), I still find it hard to believe my method actually has a long term edge. It's just about knowing what REALLY makes good golfers good, rather than what people think makes them good. In every tournament there is normally (if I'm lucky) one big red flag on a player and a handful of little flags. I just run what I have against the odds and see what comes up.

    When I put Na up the other week and singled him out, which I rarely do, it was screaming out as the big mistake (I think he was 66/1 and I had him 40/1). Then him actually winning at 40/1 is just luck. But you've got to be fox in the box for those, as you know better than me.

    I think it's very likely that at some point this year I'll go three months without a bean and then I'll look like a wanker, but that's golf - it's a great sport to bet on because you can lose all the time and then your one win blows it all away.

  37. #4137
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Phoenix Open

    This is always a fun tournament in the desert. Scottsdale will be familiar to anyone who had the old Tiger Woods series on playstation. Normally the 16th hole par 3 is a stadium hole packed with thousands of the very worst of trailer-party drunken college yahoos. Last year at the same hole they also managed the most hilariously mawkish tribute in sporting history by placing the pin 24 feet on, 8 from the left in honour of Kobe Bryant's old shirt numbers. No tournament will be more different with no fans and without all the commotion one can expect a birdie fest and very low winning score.

    Rahm 6/1
    English 28/1
    Huh 110/1
    Moore 125/1
    Dahmen 150/1
    D.Lee 300/1

    Saudi Invitational

    This whole event, and my picks for it, make me want to puke. This is the very worst that sport has to offer. Set in the centuries-old golfing, erm, mecca of King Abdullah Economic City, this tournament is effectively an advertisement for the murderous ways of MBS and his cronies. Golf, of course, being golf, laps this up with the self-awareness of someone who has just been sliced up with a bonesaw and placed into a number of holdalls. One only has to look back to last year and Phil Mickelson's risible claim that his appearance here was about 'doing my bit to grow the game in the Kingdom' as he smiled to the cameras and launched an exhibition drive into the Red Sea. Perhaps this year they will invite him to behead a local gay man instead. With big bung appearance fees on offer, Phil is not the only American star keen to miss Phoenix and fly halfway across the globe to play on the European Tour. Popular figures like Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau also make the journey, as does Dustin Johnson. It's an unpleasant spectacle; I am disappointed in a lot of the top British players for playing in it (props to Rory McIlroy and Matthew Fitzpatrick for never having done so) and I will avoid watching it but I don't see the harm in trying to scalp a cynical few quid out of it. When in Rome.

    DeChambeau 9/1
    Finau 18/1
    Rose 50/1
    Vegas 110/1
    Hall 200/1

  38. #4138
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    ON IT.

    x

  39. #4139
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Not terribly. The bookies will have better, and they cover most inefficiencies with their overround anyway. Although I'm up a fair bit since I started using this (around 100%, I think), I still find it hard to believe my method actually has a long term edge. It's just about knowing what REALLY makes good golfers good, rather than what people think makes them good. In every tournament there is normally (if I'm lucky) one big red flag on a player and a handful of little flags. I just run what I have against the odds and see what comes up.

    When I put Na up the other week and singled him out, which I rarely do, it was screaming out as the big mistake (I think he was 66/1 and I had him 40/1). Then him actually winning at 40/1 is just luck. But you've got to be fox in the box for those, as you know better than me.

    I think it's very likely that at some point this year I'll go three months without a bean and then I'll look like a wanker, but that's golf - it's a great sport to bet on because you can lose all the time and then your one win blows it all away.
    100% ROI is bonkers, and as you say likely unsustainable, but the sample seems big enough to indicate that whatever you're doing does work.

    I've seen so many maths/comp science graduates try and build a model to beat the football markets and utterly fail because they have no idea how the game works, while some of the best gamblers I know have never written an Excel formula. The sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle.

  40. #4140
    Pretty Much Amazing Mike's Avatar
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    All aboard

  41. #4141
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    I've seen so many maths/comp science graduates try and build a model to beat the football markets and utterly fail because they have no idea how the game works, while some of the best gamblers I know have never written an Excel formula. The sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle.
    I suspect football is much harder to build a model for in that way, as the result is often less to do with the process and more to do with certain high-leverage moments. OK, if Liverpool play Northampton then you basically know that the process will dictate the outcome, but Liverpool v Man City may well hinge on who happens to convert a chance at a particular moment, which is luck. I suppose what you're looking for is a very small margin in the process that the market hasn't seen. In a 2 horse race with high liquidity, that must be almost impossible.

    In golf, the winner's having around 275 stabs at the ball, so it's basically always about the process, and 72 holes is a pretty decent sample size to shoot at. Like football, if it was Rory v Tiger over 72 then it would be hard to beat the market, and Rory v Tiger over 18 would depend too much on randomness. The joy of golf is that in most cases it's a 150 horse race rather than a 2 horse race, and therein lies the magic.

  42. #4142
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I'm a twit

  43. #4143
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Only Rahm left in the phoenix but not doing great.


    A lot better in the Saudi with only Hall falling so far at the cut.

  44. #4144
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Think DJ will stroll Saudi so probably playing for places.

  45. #4145
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Finau is within touching distance at least for tomorrow.

  46. #4146
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Finau always seems to be in touching distance of a win and then chokes (not too badly mind) on Sunday.

  47. #4147
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Finau is like the opposite of the man for the big occasion. He's in decent nick though so hoping some combo of he, Rose and the michelin man can place up and drag something from the week. There are quite a few mugs in and around the top ten at the moment. David Horsey taking it to DJ etc is like, I don't know, the aggressive guy from your local pub getting in the ring with Tyson.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 06-02-2021 at 09:23 PM.

  48. #4148
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Big Tony on the charge.

    'Rosey' (term use authorised by Butch Harmon) in the hunt for a place as well.

  49. #4149
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    This is my first time with Finau up and in contention Sunday, should be a wild ride.

    Taking money off Justin Rose feels immoral, I might donate any winnings to his sponsors Morgan Stanley.

  50. #4150
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Presumably, depending on how this all pans out, Tony Bloom (James) will be looking to buy the computer forthwith. Rinse them Jimmy, rinse them for all they have.

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