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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #5451

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    As predicted, my run of about 8 weeks with at least an EW on the golf (ignoring the team play bollocks) came to an end in Mexico. Had two just outside the top 5 though which is a shame.

    Wells Fargo this week and I'm not seeing a lot. It's a good field but very even. I've gone for Mitchell (50), List (100) and Lashley (140).

    EDIT: And Jordan Smith for British Masters.
    Last edited by Ben; 03-05-2022 at 07:58 AM.

  2. #5452
    Senior Member Max Power's Avatar
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    Think Forest are a bet tonight at 3.2

  3. #5453
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don View Post
    Get a fucking load of that Brentford price on Monday.

  4. #5454
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Manc, take a lesson from SVN lad, don't post in here if you're gonna fangirl over me.

  5. #5455
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    du Plessis 40/1 for the British Masters. Homa 40/1 at Wells Fargo.

  6. #5456
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Wells Fargo

    Henley 33/1
    Knox 80/1
    Hickok 175/1
    Chacarra 400/1

    Belfry

    Richard 'Blandy' Bland 30/1
    Bjork 70/1
    Ormsby 125/1
    Guerrier 150/1
    Dredge 500/1

  7. #5457
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Madrid -1, Madrid -2, Madrid to qualify and Benz to score 2 or more.

    Mon the bottlejob.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 04-05-2022 at 08:52 PM.

  8. #5458
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Wanted City handicaps but no inspiring prices so Over 4.5 for bants.

  9. #5459
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Any reason Wolves are 10/1 on Skybet? Chelsea haven't beat them in the last 3 meetings.

  10. #5460
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Homa

  11. #5461
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Never in doubt.

  12. #5462

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    Good shout lads. He was on my shortlist but I discounted him when I saw the odds as my predictor wanted minimum 50/1 for him. Oops.

  13. #5463

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    I'm on Hideki at 25/1 for the Byron Nelson. He never seems to win after a few weeks off (indeed all his wins have come when he's also played the week before) but a lot of stats for this course point his way. Obviously Scheffler in the field throws a spanner but at least it boosts everyone else's odds.

  14. #5464
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    This is the one KH Lee won last time? One of my least favourite events.

    I am however all over Hurly Long for the Soudal Open. He sounds like a golf-themed porn star.

  15. #5465

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    Yeah that's the one. They've finally managed a sell out though, because it's in Texas and Scheffler is playing.

  16. #5466
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    Indonesia v Timor Leste.
    Just kicked off in the SEA Games.

    Timor Leste to score at least 1. #ItsAFix

  17. #5467

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    Indonesia 1-0 up so got on BTTS at 2.2.

  18. #5468
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    There's a good chance Timor score, but I'm not sure it'll be because Indonesia let them. Timor are far more likely to chuck a couple in as I suspect they did in their last game.

  19. #5469
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    Yup :d My contact says over 3.75, but the game is still quite cagey. Both teams are dodgy as fuck.

  20. #5470
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Anywhere got odds on Mourinho next Chelsea manager?
    I'm a twit

  21. #5471
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I'd actually love that. We'd come 11th but I'd love it.

  22. #5472
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  23. #5473
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    I got on with Ł25 @ 8. Legend.

  24. #5474
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Stuck in Turkey without a VPN so couldn't get on, what a cunt.

  25. #5475
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Soudal Open:

    JC Ritchie 50/1
    Ashun Wu 60/1

    Byron Nelson:

    Hadwin 45/1
    Theegala 100/1

  26. #5476
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    James. Talk to me. 4/9?

  27. #5477
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Every casual observer with a Betfair account is going "War m8, 12 points from every country, free money", while every seasoned Eurovision gambler is going "Noooo that's not how this works, the juries are going to pan it! Please stop shortening!"

    On merit it's an 50/1 shot in any other year, but it's also a pretty weak field this year. They should smash the televote. Depending on how many points they rack up there, they need perhaps 5th (I'll do the maths on Friday) with the juries. It just comes down to the extent of the sympathy voting.

    Here's the song if you've not heard it. The chorus is clearly banger and even the first rap verse is fine, but it goes nowhere and the last minute is a fella breakdancing and another pretending to play the flute.



    UK (7/1) is second favourite but I don't think it'll do well enough in the east.

    Italy (10/1) is very competent but I'm getting slight self sabotage vibes, not sure they want to host again.

    Sweden (12/1) should be shorter but it probably needs a good draw. It'll get forgotten if it draws first half.

    Beyond that there's not much to be had. With nothing standing out there's a very good chance we get a steamer over the next few days. Netherlands look too big at 100/1 but aren't winning. Serbia, Moldova maybe, dunno. My thoughts tend to crystallize towards the end of the week as the picture becomes fuller, I'll probably throw a few bets up then.

    I don't know who wins, but I have a hard time seeing it being Ukraine. Then again, there is no precedent.

  28. #5478
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I forgot Spain.



    Those booty shots might just be enough to do it tbh.

  29. #5479
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It's not a patch on last year's Ukraine entry, which was an apex banger. I asked as all the people in my life who for some reason see me as a general gambling expert because I sometimes do alright on the golf are asking me if they should pile their life savings into the Ukr song, so I think the answer is no they shouldn't.

  30. #5480
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    God, that Spanish song just gives me PTSD about being the ugliest person in every Spanish bar I've ever entered after midnight.

  31. #5481
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    It's not a patch on last year's Ukraine entry, which was an apex banger. I asked as all the people in my life who for some reason see me as a general gambling expert because I sometimes do alright on the golf are asking me if they should pile their life savings into the Ukr song, so I think the answer is no they shouldn't.
    At sub 1.6, certainly not, and it's probably reasonable to assume that it's that sort of thing that's driving the price. They shortened even more after drawing first half in the running order (historically ~halves your chances of winning) which is rather an odd one.

  32. #5482

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    Byron Nelson bets in tatters already after Munoz shoots a fucking 60 to kick things off.

  33. #5483
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Spain, Italy and the UK are probably all value (in descending order) in the outright market because of how ludicrously short Ukraine are. There are clear arguments for and against each of them. I should add that Ukraine absolutely do have a path to victory and they probably should be favourites, just not one point fucking four favourites.

    Sweden to win Eurovision @11 (Take each way if you can get 1/4 4 place terms at odds of 8)
    Portugal top 10 @3.5
    Poland to win the jury vote @25 (should be available on exchanges at some point today, probably wouldn't bother with the @17 on bet365)
    Belgium to finish last @9

    Might put a couple more up later depending on prices
    Last edited by -james-; 14-05-2022 at 01:05 PM.

  34. #5484
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    Ł35 on Spain it is.

  35. #5485
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Jury vote on Exchange is suspended

    Got on the others plus a nibble on UK last.

  36. #5486
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry View Post
    Jury vote on Exchange is suspended

    Got on the others plus a nibble on UK last.
    Ah, Jury vote was last night so it's probably not coming back now, must be afraid of shenanigans.

    UK last place should be 10000/1 this year.
    Last edited by -james-; 14-05-2022 at 05:04 PM.

  37. #5487
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Also on:

    Spain top 4 @ 2.25
    Estonia top 15 @1.8
    Poland top 10 @1.7

    And will be laying Norway to finish top 10 and top 15 in running

  38. #5488
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Ukraine, on the nose.

    Dunno the odds but, regardless of what James says, it’s printing money.
    I'm a twit

  39. #5489
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    And that's why the 8/1 on Sweden each way exists.

  40. #5490
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Only had 3 places for Sweden

  41. #5491
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Easiest money I’ve made since John Arne heard a whisper.
    I'm a twit

  42. #5492
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Did okay in the end. Portugal, Spain and Sweden places saving me, though a chunk was done on Poland top 10, Norway pipping Netherlands to 10th hurt as well.

    In hindsight got Ukraine very wrong. Jury vote ended up being entirely irrelevant. Eurovision betting truly is the highlight of the calendar though, shame it's only once a year.

  43. #5493
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    Do anyone have the ability to bet on the 5x5 SEA Games basketball?

  44. #5494

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    Hideki got me my money back on the Byron Nelson. As if K.H. Lee did it again.

    Thoughts on the PGA Championship? I'm still debating at the sharp end but have got on Vegas, Pereira and List now while the odds are at 200's.

  45. #5495
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Paging Jimmy - Figjam up to his eyes in debt

    https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id...sses-2010-2014

  46. #5496
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Might just plough the bank into KH Lee tbh.

    Seriously - wind's up, we're in Wizard of Oz country. The favourite should absolutely, every day of the week, be Scottie Scheffler. If he isn't fav I'm going to pour onto him again a la Augusta. I'm also keen to see how far down Spieth is.

  47. #5497
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kikó View Post
    Paging Jimmy - Figjam up to his eyes in debt

    https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id...sses-2010-2014
    Also seen talk he's in the midst of a divorce, though I'm not sure how kosher that is.

  48. #5498

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Might just plough the bank into KH Lee tbh.

    Seriously - wind's up, we're in Wizard of Oz country. The favourite should absolutely, every day of the week, be Scottie Scheffler. If he isn't fav I'm going to pour onto him again a la Augusta. I'm also keen to see how far down Spieth is.
    Bet365 have him and Rahm joint favourite on 11/1. Hard to see past him but I'm going to wait it out to see if I can get some sort of offer like I did on the Masters.

  49. #5499
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Instant verdict upon looking at the odds is I like these: Scheffler, Spieth, Smith, Hovland, Burns

    Undecided on Cantlay.

    Deleted: McIlroy, 'JT', Schauffele

    I'll have a think as the week goes on.

  50. #5500

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    I'm with you re: Scheffler, Hovland, Burns and Schauffele. I don't even both with McIlroy and Thomas.

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