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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #3851
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Biden 1.08


  2. #3852
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    It's one of the most nonsensical things I've ever seen. 1 billion matched on the market and genuinely a 1.00 shot going by Betfair's settlement rules.

  3. #3853
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Must be people getting their dollar out, surely?

  4. #3854
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    So I shouldn’t bet £5k on it?
    I'm a twit

  5. #3855
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    You should, it's the freest money you'll ever see. The only question mark is when you will receive your free money.

    People greening up made sense up to a point, but he was 1.02 last night before about 40 million quid got matched to push it out to 1.08. Apparently there was some lol press conference about votes getting voided but it makes not a shred of difference.

  6. #3856
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I’ll leave it.
    I'm a twit

  7. #3857
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Bez

  8. #3858
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    The Computer strikes again.

  9. #3859
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Nice one.

    Some epic bottle job final rounds in there by the looks of things.

  10. #3860
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Crocker's 18th hole was a classic. One behind standing on the tee, hits a drive left, bounces off the roof of a moving buggy into the out of bounds. Then playing his 4th went long into the back water and ended up with an 8. Even then he still finished tied for second thanks to everyone else mulching it as well.

  11. #3861
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Three golf events this week (unusually) with selections below. Computer RoI is now up to +90.54% over the 95 selections since I began using this method (4 winners, 12 places, 79 losers).

    Mayakoba
    Henley 22/1
    Reavie 50/1
    Streelman 70/1
    Hubbard 100/1
    Duncan 125/1

    Golf in Dubai (nb Weds start)
    Pieters 16/1
    Langasque 40/1
    Smith 45/1
    Hebert 70/1
    Karlberg 175/1
    Moller 200/1

    There is also the South African Open but my dogshit bookmaker not offering odds yet, I may return later in the week for that.

  12. #3862
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Can't be long before your dogshit bookmaker stops accepting your business.

  13. #3863
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Reavie (@91) and Hubbard (@201) on Betfair

    They also have the South African odds and Bez has been hammered, he's only at 8's there. RIP sweet prince.

  14. #3864
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    Can't be long before your dogshit bookmaker stops accepting your business.
    I have wondered that but I'm not sure tenners each way winning every six weeks are going to bankrupt him, tbh.

  15. #3865
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry View Post
    Reavie (@91) and Hubbard (@201) on Betfair

    They also have the South African odds and Bez has been hammered, he's only at 8's there. RIP sweet prince.
    Bez doesn't need to win anymore (got his Masters place sorted which is why I was huge on him), will be avoiding. Also Betfair odds are higher because they are outright and not each way 7 places - unless that's sportsbook prices you're talking about in which case they're miles off. The overround is a joke on some. Valimaki in the Dubai event I have around 110/1 and he's being priced up at 28s.

  16. #3866
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    They are sportsbook prices.

    Valimaki seems to always be tipped by the Betfair tipster Matt Cooper.

    https://betting.betfair.com/golf/gol...01120-721.html

    He's gone for him again, however he's -37 points this season so he'll probably be asking for access to The Computer soon.

  17. #3867
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Mon the digital don.

  18. #3868
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I know it's golf and anyone could win, but I would seriously question his methods if he judges Valimaki to be a back at 25/1.

    The key to reading tipsters is that if they have a good methodology (which I think I have, at the moment, before it either gets compromised or turns out to be a run of superb luck) they aren't going to give it to you, so they will dress their reasoning up in a load of spiel about grass types, wind patterns and course designers etc. That stuff is valid but is all so marginal, it's 80% about who is going to be best at hitting the golf shots that the course demands. The rest is down to putting luck, how the golfer feels when he wakes up in the morning, whether his ball lands behind a tree or just to the side, etc.

  19. #3869
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Jordan @ 33/1
    Stone @ 16/1
    Bland @ 33/1

    I'd back Thomas for the Mayakoba, but 6/1 is sickening.

  20. #3870
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Thomas 6/1 is nonsense. I'm not sure why he's even playing there.

    South Africa I'm on:
    Schwab 16/1
    Schaper 28/1 (serious talent albeit currently looks in need of a good bedtime story)
    Farr 110/1
    One final roll on Lawrence 150/1

  21. #3871
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Langasque pulled out?

  22. #3872
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Tested positive for Covid so will be a non-runner.

    Take Lorenzo-Vera if you want a similarly priced (and similarly French) replacement, computer a huge fan of his work, and I'm a huge fan of his look.

  23. #3873
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    VBA Finals.

    Saigon Heat v Thanh Long Warriors.

    TLW at 4... Which is way too big. Worth a cheeky punt. Nothing dodgy, though.

  24. #3874
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Marcelo's titans are above 5/1 up against Fat Frank's Brexit boys. Let me see you try and keep a clean sheet there, lad. They haven't fucking lost since us in September so we have the classic roulette strategy of forecasting a red after 15 blacks favouring us too, as if it wasn't clear to the astute footballing mind.

  25. #3875
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I would go the other way, towards an enormous Chelsea win. I've watched a lot of both teams and they are just going to leave far too much space for us. They might score two but we'll score seven.

    The time to oppose us will be at Goodison when DCL bullies Thiago Silva to death.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 03-12-2020 at 11:34 PM.

  26. #3876
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    You've struggled against expansive sides, namely cause your manager can't organise a defence beside putting bodies behind the ball. You can't do that against Leeds. And 2 Phillips-less games aside, they've been superior to everyone they've faced, they are not a 5/1 shot.

  27. #3877
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Werner is about to have half the pitch to run into against Leeds. Hat trick for him is a better price than Leeds 5/1

  28. #3878
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    That's the only worry. I'm hoping be gets rested

  29. #3879
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    It'll all come down to Frank's selection.

  30. #3880
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    He’ll go full strength as the game midweek against the Russians is meaningless as no one in that group can change place. Havertz will run circles round the lonely Phillips if he starts.

  31. #3881
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Only thing that Jew can run circles round is a 16-wheeler.

  32. #3882
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    I need Fat Frank to don old man Bielsa senseless as it is my pick in the final of my Last Man Standing for £200. Other guy picked Leicester so no doubt Chelsea shit the bed and Leicester suddenly turn their form around.

  33. #3883
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Got absolutely screwed by a horse that had had “a whisper from the yard” that was brought down at the first. 28/1
    I'm a twit

  34. #3884
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Win it back on an Allmankind/Altior/Native River treble

  35. #3885
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Nah gonna try and hold out until 27th December 14:55 (unless I get more info in-between) cos I’ll be going in big time on Locks Corner.
    I'm a twit

  36. #3886
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    Hoping for another successful weekend of boredom betting.

    Gone for a Calvin-Lewin hat-trick (void if not starting) and doubles across Everton and West Ham wins and with Asians -1.5. May lump on Everton depending on how they start as 1.9 seems generous.

  37. #3887
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Imagine backing three different Frenchmen for a golf tournament pre-off and a fourth one fucking wins.

    MLV with the place though at 50/1.

  38. #3888
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Offshore Toon View Post
    Hoping for another successful weekend of boredom betting.

    Gone for a Calvin-Lewin hat-trick (void if not starting) and doubles across Everton and West Ham wins and with Asians -1.5. May lump on Everton depending on how they start as 1.9 seems generous.
    DCL is my FPL captain, so I'll be cheering you on with that one.

  39. #3889
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Imagine backing three different Frenchmen for a golf tournament pre-off and a fourth one fucking wins.

    MLV with the place though at 50/1.
    Thankfully I took your advice:

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Tested positive for Covid so will be a non-runner.

    Take Lorenzo-Vera if you want a similarly priced (and similarly French) replacement, computer a huge fan of his work, and I'm a huge fan of his look.
    So cheers for that.

  40. #3890
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    MLV

    It's nice to see that Lawrence shat the bed on day 1, recovered well on day 2 to make the cut before shitting over the ceiling and walls on day 3.

  41. #3891
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He is a bit of an annoying one, young player who ticks all the boxes to be in the top group of South African players (at least in these kind of events) but has probably shat the bed this month as a lot of them do when the European Tour comes to town and the stakes are so much higher.

    Suspect that could be it for the weekend, Schwab has gone into total reverse ferret and over in Mexico my main man missed the cut (as did Rickie Fowler, who is now in serious jeopardy of not making the Masters and his career going into Spieth mode).

  42. #3892
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    Win it back on an Allmankind/Altior/Native River treble
    Whoever is in charge of the racecourse at Aintree wants shooting. The Many Clouds Chase was effectively a flat sprint.

  43. #3893
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Whoever is in charge of the racecourse at Aintree wants shooting. The Many Clouds Chase was effectively a flat sprint.
    The long run fucked it for Native River. Went from 4/9 in play to 100/1 without a fence in sight

  44. #3894
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    West Ham, Leeds & Montpellier @100/1.

  45. #3895
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Last one of the year.

    DP World Tour Championship

    Hovland 14/1
    Im 18/1
    Wiesberger 25/1
    Poulter 40/1
    Rai 60/1

    Don't think there's much value down the field - this is a top heavy event, my bookie's only paying 5 places with the limited field, and the big dogs usually win. Hovland has a long trip to make and has just won but he's probably the class player in the field on current form - Morikawa's world ranking is a touch inflated as he has dropped off since the summer, and to my knowledge he has never played outside the United States. Im is also a Euro tour first timer but I don't get the impression he gives a fuck where he is as long as there's a golf course and a hotel room.

    If you want someone longer, Hansen 70/1 and Janewattananond would be of mild interest.

    On a side note, I think this is the first time in my long, long history of golf betting that I have ever backed Ian Poulter.

  46. #3896
    Senior Member Pleb's Avatar
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    You fucking madman.

    Love seeing your tips.

  47. #3897
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    What of Hatton/Fitzpatrick?

  48. #3898
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    If you can find 12/1 for Hatton that would be a good price. Fitzpatrick I'd want 18/1.

  49. #3899
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    An odds-on accumulator of stuff I think is value this weekend. 8/1ish.


  50. #3900
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Queens Park at evens is ridiculous value on its own

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