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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #2301
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Got my wires crossed and entered the wrong B***ing thread. Eurovision:




    Quote Originally Posted by dino View Post
    Eurovision:

    Cyprus @ 10.0
    Czech Republic @ 16.5
    Sweden @ 30.0

    Top Balkan:
    Croatia @ 20.0 (12.0+ fine)

    Semi Final 1:
    Azerbaijan to qualify at 2.3

    Semi Final 2:
    Russia to not qualify at 2.0
    Quote Originally Posted by dino View Post
    The Russia one is risky just because they'll probably buy their way through, but it's one of the worst entries ever so it seems a steal.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry View Post
    Cyprus actually has a chance?

    Quote Originally Posted by dino View Post
    And yes, there is plenty to over.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwMTyLqb7zo

  2. #2302
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Cyprus into 4.2 fav.

  3. #2303
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Just listened to our contribution and it's actually quite decent.

    Better than the Cyprus one really, but the dude looks a little weird and it's not really a normal Eurovision song so I can see it not winning.

  4. #2304
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazuuurk View Post
    Just listened to our contribution and it's actually quite decent.

    Better than the Cyprus one really, but the dude looks a little weird and it's not really a normal Eurovision song so I can see it not winning.
    Sweden were shorter than Cyprus before rehearsals. It's nailed on for a top ten, but it's not gonna win. It's fine, and Sweden always present their entry well, but it's not memorable enough.

  5. #2305
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Yeah like I said, being a better song isn't exactly what wins you the Eurovision.

  6. #2306
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Laying Bulgaria to qualify at 1.25 is probably a better bet than the Azerbaijan one I mentioned above. I think there are 4 slots nailed on from tonight (Cyprus, Estonia, Czechia, Israel), and the other 6 could be any of the remaining 12. Bulgaria is guff and way too short. Might have a lay of Greece as well.

  7. #2307
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Green on Norway and Lithuania now as well. Expect Norway to go off fav on the night, and it'll probably be a three horse race between them, Cyprus and Lithuania.

  8. #2308
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Got a free £10 bet. Any world cup top tips? Or should I put yet more money on Suarez golden boot?
    I'm a twit

  9. #2309
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Australia to finish bottom of group - 1.85
    Uruguay to win group - 1.91
    Peru to qualify - 2.88
    Senegal to win group - 6.0
    Croatia to win group - 3.45
    Uruguay outright - 30
    Spain & Morocco dual forecast - 6.0

    This is stuff I'm on so far.

  10. #2310
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Argentina to finish third in their group.

    BANKER.

  11. #2311
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dino View Post
    Australia to finish bottom of group - 1.85
    Uruguay to win group - 1.91
    Peru to qualify - 2.88
    Senegal to win group - 6.0
    Croatia to win group - 3.45
    Uruguay outright - 30
    Spain & Morocco dual forecast - 6.0

    This is stuff I'm on so far.
    I’ve gone for a double of Uruguay and Senegal to win their group @ 9.0
    I'm a twit

  12. #2312
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Germany to be eliminated in the group stage @8
    Lewandowski to be top scores @34

  13. #2313
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Portugal each way @ 25/1
    Lukaku golden boot @ 16/1
    Giroud golden boot @ 33/1
    Brazil-Germany forecast @ 20/1
    Argentina out in R2 @ 2/1
    Belgium out in QF @ 2/1 NAP
    140+ group stage goals @ 10/1
    Group B lowest scoring group @ 5/1
    Group C highest scoring group @ 13/2
    Australia no goalscorer @ 7/1
    Group A forecast Egypt-Uruguay @ 11/2
    Group C forecast Denmark-France @ 13/2
    Group D forecast Croatia-Nigeria @ 18/1
    England 5 group points @ 8/1
    South Korea 0 group points @ 9/2
    N'golo Kanté player of the tournament @ 80/1
    Alisson golden glove @ 4/1
    Brazil/Germany/France/Spain the semi-finalists @ 25/1
    Lukaku Belgium top scorer, Neymar Brazil top scorer, Neymar pott, Brazil win @ 40/1
    No 0-0 draws @ 100/1

    20 bets, fiver on each (proper pro staking that), most of them for interest. See how much of my ton is left at the end.

  14. #2314
    Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuno Reg's Avatar
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    That Egypt-Uruguay looks quite appealing. Salah might be enough to beat Russia to second?

    The player of the tournament/golden boot markets are interesting. I might put a quid or two on a few of them - fun ones to follow and a chance to earn a fair bit.

  15. #2315
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    That's Egypt-Uruguay in sequence. I think Egypt will be really fucking hard to beat.

  16. #2316
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    I put in Gabriel Jesus for Golden Boot at 17/1 or something.

    Wouldn't be surprised to see him do 4 tap-ins in one game and then take it from there.

  17. #2317
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    140 goals in the group stages seems optimistic. How many games are there?

  18. #2318
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    48.

    Need an average of 3 goals a game. 10/1 seems pretty decent, considering Uruguay will shift seven past Saudi Arabia on their own.
    I'm a twit

  19. #2319
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Yeah sorry Jim. That fiver is dead to you.

  20. #2320
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I just figured the CL has beeen going goal crazy of late, so why not the World Cup. A few 6-2s and the like needed.

  21. #2321
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Yeah but those are good teams. This World Cup is going to have some right defensive shitters in it. Remember the last Euros? Awful stuff.

  22. #2322
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    SkyBet offering 5/1 on Fury to win in first two rounds, max stake £20. I think they’ll make quite a loss on that one.
    I'm a twit

  23. #2323
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    on France not to qualify from group C at 10.0

  24. #2324
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    In my football man sweepstake, I got Brazil and Peru on Friday. Then today in my work sweepstake, i got Brazil and Peru again. It's a sign.


    Brazil vs Peru - World Cup Final - 15th July
    @500

  25. #2325
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    £1 - Brazil to win the whole thing + Neymar top scorer @ 25/1
    £5 - Neymar top scorer - 5/1
    £1 - Brazil to win the whole thing + Jesus top scorer @200/1
    £1 E/W on M'Bappe, Griezmann and Mitrovic.

  26. #2326
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    So far I've got £10 on Argentina a to finish third in their group. Nothing else so far as I'm trying to think where best to put my money.

  27. #2327
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I'm on Saudi Arabia +1.25 against Russia on Thursday.

  28. #2328
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Seems so hard to find value in this world cup because on first look, no teams look like they could cause much of an upset really.

    Senegal and Morocco could maybe do something. But teams that in previous years have seemed like they could cause big teams trouble, like Australia, Japan etc don't really look like it now. And I just can't take Panama or Peru seriously.

  29. #2329
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    I’ve done a top goal scorer for country accumulater consisting of Suarez, Gabriel Jesus, Muller and Griezmann at 61/1.

  30. #2330
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I'm avoiding the tempting Gabriel Jesus odds for various things, because Neymar will cry if anyone else gets to score.

  31. #2331
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I've gone in.

    £10 on Argentina third in group D @ 6.5
    £10 on Germany winners @ 6
    £5 E/W on Werner top scorer @ 15
    £5 E/W on Muller top scorer @ 26
    £5 on Germany winners/Werner top scorer @ 26
    £5 on Kroos golden ball @ 41
    £5 on Brazil/Germany final @ 10
    £5 on Egypt to qualify from the group @ 2.62
    £5 on Uruguay 1/Egypt 2 @ 5.5
    £5 on Poland 1/Colombia 2 @ 5
    £10 on Suarez/Cavani/Lewandowski each to score 3 or more @ 13
    £5 on Lukaku/Griezmann/Costa/Jesus to score 16 or more combined @ 10
    £5 on England to be eliminated at round of 16 @ 2.87

  32. #2332
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Regular major event plug for Only Balls & Horses for some solid opinions, apart from the bit where I can only assume he does some PCP before tipping Australia to qualify.

  33. #2333
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    That '16 or more' line is probably the lowest value bet I've ever seen someone take.

  34. #2334
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    It does seem low considering the one above is much more likely at higher odds as well. I suppose it's also not that likely that both Cavani and Suarez score that many each but still.

  35. #2335
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    I'm avoiding the tempting Gabriel Jesus odds for various things, because Neymar will cry if anyone else gets to score.
    Probably very sound. Also I betted on him for Golden Boot so, definitely the right call there Jim.

  36. #2336
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John View Post
    That '16 or more' line is probably the lowest value bet I've ever seen someone take.
    Yep, it means those four are scoring 4 each on average? Abysmal bet.

  37. #2337
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I saw Paddy Power were doing England to win it and Danny Welbeck to score the last goal in the final, at 15/1. They must be pissing themselves.

  38. #2338
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    It's 150/1, not 15/1

  39. #2339
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    It was definitely 15 earlier, must have been an error.

  40. #2340
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Uruguay are going to properly disappoint Mahow.

  41. #2341
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    They usually let everyone down.

    £5 on Golovin FGS
    £5 on Golovin AGS.

  42. #2342
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Uruguay -2 vs Saudi Arabia max bet.

  43. #2343
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Someone pointed out that if you bet on all Brazil, Spain, France and Germany to win the whole thing, you'll make a profit so long as one of them wins.

    And the only other real contenders are Argentina and Belgium - and it just seems a little preposterous that either of those would win (though I do have a feeling about Argentina which generally means fuck all).

  44. #2344
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Gone for the following today:

    Morocco/Iran draw @ 3
    Morocco/Iran 0-0 @ 6.5
    Under 1.5 goals @ 2.4
    Cavani to have 3 or more shots on target @ 4.5
    Under 2.5 in that game @ 1.75
    Andre Silva AGS @ 5.5

    £5 on all bar the last which is a £2 stake.

  45. #2345
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    Missed yesterday because of the late Iran goal on a 30/1 treble. Today it's a quad of France, over 2.5 in argies game, Croatia and draw Peru/Denmark.

    How fruitful are you pros finding this? Can see some heavy backing of European/ South American teams vs the Asians / Africans.

  46. #2346
    Senior Member Trancemeister's Avatar
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    1u Mexico FH @ 6.0

    cashing out
    Last edited by Trancemeister; 17-06-2018 at 03:39 PM.

  47. #2347
    Senior Member Trancemeister's Avatar
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    1u Germany - Mexico BTTS 2nd half @ 2,5

  48. #2348
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foe View Post

    How fruitful are you pros finding this? Can see some heavy backing of European/ South American teams vs the Asians / Africans.
    There have been some stonking misprices but I'm only up a tiny bit on match betting. Peru losing yesterday was a heartbreaker. Outrights posted upthread are doing ok.


    I'm going to be on Morocco +1, Denmark -0.5, Peru +1 and Iran +2 next round, I think.

  49. #2349
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Peru/Denmark and Germany/Mexico hurt me.

  50. #2350
    Senior Member Trancemeister's Avatar
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    Brazil -1.0 & first to 5 corners 1u @ 2,63

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