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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #3651
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    If he hadn't pretended a global pandemic was a personal attack on him and actually done some work for the first time in 70 years it would be very, very close imo.

  2. #3652
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    I read that the predictions weren't that far off in 2016. Clinton lead in the battleground states by 4-5% compared to Trump which was within a standard deviation of error. Trump's chances to win were 30% (so not impossible just unlikely). They've changed the sampling since to include the under sampling of non-college educated white voters for this election. Biden's gains have been on former Trump voters and the 2018 undecideds have solidified away from Trump.

    Biden is leading 8-10% so margin of error = x2 previously.

  3. #3653
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Roma's odds.

  4. #3654
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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  5. #3655
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    What a shit way to break a club.

    At least go a bit mental with it.

  6. #3656
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Thomas Pieters is the god-emperor of club snapping. Remember him javelin-ing the two halves into a gorse bush at the Open once.

  7. #3657
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Doing the £1000 drop thing on Paddy Power. On question 10 with £1000 left and pinging it all on btts in the Watford game. Not sure whether to just split the next 2 questions if it wins and guarantee myself £250 or go all out. Reading to win is a question for the 3Pm games which looks a near enough cert.

  8. #3658
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    3:15 Lock’s Corner 16/1
    I'm a twit

  9. #3659
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    Doing the £1000 drop thing on Paddy Power. On question 10 with £1000 left and pinging it all on btts in the Watford game. Not sure whether to just split the next 2 questions if it wins and guarantee myself £250 or go all out. Reading to win is a question for the 3Pm games which looks a near enough cert.
    Last kick of the ball

    2 to go

  10. #3660
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    3:15 Lock’s Corner 16/1
    Went off at 25/1 but I never thought I’d be so pissed off at an EW bet coming 2nd

    PROFIT is profit I guess
    I'm a twit

  11. #3661
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    Nice tip, Baz.

  12. #3662
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Yeah, had 2 quid each way on it. Had 3 on I'd Better Go Now as well though which was shit.

    Where'd you get the tip?

  13. #3663
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Heisele with a big day.

    Reitan is still in the mix too.

  14. #3664
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Kris still lacking a bit of know-how but he is blitzing his odds every week, I think I will stay on him until he makes it (or as long as the computer still likes him).

    There are some chumps at the top - Ross McGowan looks like Steve Pemberton playing a divorced dad - so I have some hope for Heisele.

  15. #3665
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    Last kick of the ball

    2 to go
    I changed my mind and didn’t go with Reading to win and picked btts in Fulham game. I’ve truly fucked it

  16. #3666
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    In a straight choice between Reading winning at home against Rotherham and Fulham scoring against Woy's All Out Defence Palace side you went with Fulham?

    Edit, Lordy!


  17. #3667
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Unreal. I might just split the last for £500 as I can’t take these last minute goals anymore

  18. #3668
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Why are you still gambling?

  19. #3669
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    It’s free on their website lol

  20. #3670
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boydy View Post
    Where'd you get the tip?
    Long story but the short version is from a private group I’m no longer in, and he’s on my tracker.
    I'm a twit

  21. #3671
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Reitan's hit a a 7 under to leave him on -17.

    Could well get a place on him.

  22. #3672
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    With the way Canter, McGowan, Heisele and Burmeister have played the last couple he might even be in with a chance of winning it.

  23. #3673
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    No chance of winning it, and I suspect knife edge on placing, but the boy chucking in a Sunday 65 is

  24. #3674
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Canter is shitting the bed.

  25. #3675
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Think Kris is just going to place, even if it's slightly split. Champagne orgy at mine tonight.

  26. #3676
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    If my calculations are right that's 115 back for me with hopefully some more in America to follow.

    Edit: Calculations were correct. Mon Im, Kisner, Kuchar and Duncan.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 25-10-2020 at 03:55 PM.

  27. #3677
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    5 profitable weeks in the last 6, probably my best ever run which funnily enough coincides with starting to use hard statistics instead of my gut.

  28. #3678
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    -16 for Kisner which probably wont be enough for a place.

    Ouch.

  29. #3679
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    That lot were long gone yesterday, this place is a birdie fest so you can't really come from behind. Still more than doubled my money off the two legends in Europe.

    As a betting neutral this is however a great watch as Rahm and JT duel to the finish.

  30. #3680
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Bermuda

    Varner III 22/1
    Homa 70/1
    Dufner 80/1
    Baker 100/1
    V.Taylor 125/1

    Cyprus

    Green 33/1
    Hebert 40/1
    Waring 40/1
    Samooja 70/1

    All E/W

    The bookies have latched onto Reitan now () but if you want a long one for Cyprus, try Cormac Sharvin 300/1.

  31. #3681
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Samooja only at 56 on Betfair for some reason, still worth it at that price?

    Reitan is at 81 over there which doesn't seem too bad.

  32. #3682
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Reitan is 100/1 at my bookie. I don't rate him at that price though, other than maybe as a heart bet as I've become a little attached to the young pup. I wouldn't take Samooja at 56.

    Probably no liquidity on Betfair.

  33. #3683
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Put the Samooja money on Sami Valimaki after some research yesterday (and to keep the Finnish vibes) and he's done fairly well today.

    Not the best start for the other picks but hopefully they'll have a cracking second day tomorrow.

  34. #3684
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Valimaki was on my longlist but didn't like the odds at 28/1. Quality young player especially with driver in hand.

    Gavin Green can go fuck himself, the rest are alive.

  35. #3685
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Taylor with a great round over in Bermuda.

  36. #3686
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    There's a lot to unpack.

  37. #3687
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Literally, I fear, in a large suitcase in the corner dating back to when the missus chucked him out.

  38. #3688
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    A 64 from the Frenchie

  39. #3689
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Varner going 9 over for the day ffs.

    Edit: A lot of big scores in round 2 from the early lot. Weather must be atrocious.

  40. #3690
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    BBC weather for Bermuda says 20mph+ winds for the rest of the tournament, absolute sweepstakes. The one trick pony fair weather Americans will plummet down the leaderboard and some old sea dog with zero form will win. I'm looking at the leaderboard and bearing in mind my obsessive personality means I know every fucking golfer under the sun, 'Eric Dugas' at -6 is news to me.

    HV3 is close to going on my timeform squiggle list along with Finau and Honest Abe Ancer. Great technical golfer with amazing underlying stats, but any time he comes across any sort of adversity his arse starts twitching.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 30-10-2020 at 04:20 PM.

  41. #3691
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    https://www.cbssports.com/golf/playe...229/eric-dugas

    It seems this is only his third event outside of Hawaii.

  42. #3692
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He's a PGA club pro in Hawaii, must have gone off about 8 billion to one. Doesn't even have a world ranking and they go down to 2,000.

  43. #3693
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    I may have mentioned this before and it might be pure luck but I suspect statistically it is impossible: every payday, this being the fifth in a row I have managed it now, I put £10 on Sky Roulette spread across 6 numbers and I win on the first spin. Not sure if it is some gateway scheme but I am cheap so always cashout

  44. #3694
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I never knew the Finns loved Cyprus so much.

    The French lad is a prick.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 31-10-2020 at 01:25 PM.

  45. #3695
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    BBC weather for Bermuda says 20mph+ winds for the rest of the tournament, absolute sweepstakes. The one trick pony fair weather Americans will plummet down the leaderboard and some old sea dog with zero form will win. I'm looking at the leaderboard and bearing in mind my obsessive personality means I know every fucking golfer under the sun, 'Eric Dugas' at -6 is news to me.

    HV3 is close to going on my timeform squiggle list along with Finau and Honest Abe Ancer. Great technical golfer with amazing underlying stats, but any time he comes across any sort of adversity his arse starts twitching.
    You really jinxed Dugas by calling him out.

    Finished yesterday with a double bogey and two bogeys and today he's sitting on +5 for the round.

  46. #3696
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Samooja missed a straight five footer to lose the playoff. Fucking turnip. Still a place at 70/1 but fuck off.

  47. #3697
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I watched it, clearly the pressure got to him.

    I wish Betfair hadn't tanked his odds as Valimaki only got a shared place after 3 bogeys in his back 9

  48. #3698
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The number of times that happens in playoffs, missing diddlers when the other bloke's in the hole, is ridiculous. It's what makes golf such a great sport, the live mental disintegration. Same thing happened to me earlier in the year with Morikawa from an even shorter distance when he lost to Berger at Colonial.

    Oh well, probably another profitable week, we go again.

  49. #3699
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    2.40 for Trump ��

  50. #3700
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I'm a twit

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