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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #3801
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Started like a twat, just got a birdie back to +1 but early days. Being drawn with that blubbery whale-clown can't help.

  2. #3802
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    I put £2 ew on Hatton, Molinari, Speith, Fleetwood, Munoz and Fitzpatrick for the lols

  3. #3803
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Rahm.

  4. #3804
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    He's woken right up.

  5. #3805
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    The scenes when Tiger does it again

  6. #3806
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Tiger will shit himself over rounds 2 & 3.

  7. #3807
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Hatton just got fucked hard by a dickhead green.

    Looked like a beautiful shot with a chance to eagle and then it just rolled back into the water.

    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 13-11-2020 at 01:45 PM.

  8. #3808
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Tbf that's an established miss at 15, you can't be short (or long) of the right pin. Might have stuck up there yesterday in the sodden conditions.

    This leaderboard is mental, pretty much every top player going well except McMuff who has checked out (he was a favourite of the big name tipsters this week for reasons that really do elude me).

  9. #3809
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Null and void his bet as top debutant?
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 13-11-2020 at 03:43 PM.

  10. #3810
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Probably not, as someone else will win it.

    DJ is so short now. Sub 3/1. I'm not sure. I'm not sure you can stroll away with this like he does playoff events and WGCs. I might make a small investment in Bryson at the higher odds he now has.

  11. #3811
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Is Hatton finished?

  12. #3812
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Cut I think will be -1 so anything in the 60s would get him through that, winning looks a long way away though.

  13. #3813
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Blacklisted.

  14. #3814
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Anyone see what odds Belgium were pre-match? Mortgage-maker stuff if above evens.

    Still time for Mason and Tammy to turn it around

  15. #3815
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    A shame that Augenstein and Mike Weir shat the bed on the final day otherwise it would have been a good weekend.

    Augusta is a really wild ride.

  16. #3816
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Any of the golf ones still on?
    I'm a twit

  17. #3817
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    Rahm placed at the end.

    Any Celeb betting @Yevrah?

    I'd fancy Vernon Kay to take the most stars in a trial as a dark horse, he used to play UK Gridiron after all.

  18. #3818
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Any of the golf ones still on?
    Rahm placed, Cameron Smith was the Top Aussie and Patrick Reed was the Top Former Champion.

  19. #3819
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    That was a bloody hard one to call. DJ was just too short at 8/1 or whatever he was. Rahm saved the day, he played utter toss for about 60% of it and still placed. Bit annoyed I didn't get Smith e/w given I did back him for top Aussie but then he wasn't in consideration for outright. The ones I got rid of from my longlist were Muńoz 100/1 (glad as that would have been a heartbreaker), Westwood, Spieth and Lowry, so I didn't toss anything big away. That said, I am pretty happy that my philosophy as outlined in the preview post was pretty sound, I just didn't get the right players.

    The hard thing about Augusta is that it's usually quite easy to dismiss about two thirds of the field (much more so than for a normal tournament), but at the same time form tends to go out the window so among those who are left it's a bit of a sweepstakes. Whichever geniuses were on Frittelli and CT Pan I would have liked to have seen their workings. CT Pan I would have given next to zero chance. Sungjae I have been on many times, including last week, but I thought his putting was too shit for Augusta. Then the other place players were just the obvious candidates at unattractive short odds.

  20. #3820
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Back to the happy place of shite tournaments. Only two left on the PGA this year but several on the Euro.

    RSM

    English 25/1
    Dahmen 66/1
    Streelman 90/1
    Stuard 150/1
    V.Taylor 200/1

    Joburg

    Bezuidenhout 12/1
    Rozner 35/1
    Brown 60/1
    Lawrence 150/1
    Ferguson 175/1

    All E/W. Bez is a particular fancy even at that skinny price. He has to fly all the way from Augusta to Johannesburg to tee it up for this dogshit B-tier Euro event. He's the only player doing so, and let's just say it's not the sort of trip you'd make if you didn't have a carrot for doing so.

  21. #3821
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    50p each way on each for a bit of interest, let's rerail this train.

  22. #3822
    Senior Member Pleb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lofty View Post
    Any Celeb betting @Yevrah?

    I'd fancy Vernon Kay to take the most stars in a trial as a dark horse, he used to play UK Gridiron after all.
    Jordan North, Vernon Kay, Mo Farah and Shane Ritchie at the moment.

  23. #3823
    Senior Member Pleb's Avatar
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    Fuck me Russell Watson is on the outright list at 25/1.

    Hopefully he gets in.

  24. #3824
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I went through my record last night (since August when I began using the computer). I've backed 79 golfers, with 3 winners, 11 places and 65 losers, for an overall return of 2.12 (if total stakes are 1). I would say that is an unusually good run, so don't expect anything else now until hell freezes over.

  25. #3825
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Thinks in America are going far too well right now.

    English and Taylor (who I got at 301) are right up there and Dahmen & Stuard who looked like they'd miss the cut yesterday are marching up the leaderboard.

  26. #3826
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    26 under between the five of them yesterday, and currently 8 over today. Absolute bunch of Gone With The Wind cunts at the top of the leaderboard, if Kisner wins I will have to firebomb his massive plantation house.

  27. #3827
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    6 months of trying to do betting full-time alongside work but gonna have to bin it. Definitely getting harder each year.

    @-james- how's your year been?

  28. #3828
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    My worst yet, but I pretty much took March to August off. Had a couple of decent months since getting back into it but it is definitely getting tougher. I don't think the market is that much sharper, the main problem is getting on bets. Pre game limits and sing/sbo voids are worse than ever so I'm relying on bookie accounts, in-play situationals and the few leagues I feel confident I can beat kick off prices on.

    The other thing is that fixtures are really terrible at the moment. Really missing things like minor international tournaments.
    Last edited by -james-; 21-11-2020 at 10:59 PM.

  29. #3829
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I should add though that I'm definitely fed up of it now.

  30. #3830
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I'm thinking of going all in after Christmas. I used to be in a private racing group so will join that again, start with a 100 point bank and hopefully turn some decent profit.

    John Oster's in it.
    I'm a twit

  31. #3831
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    That doesn't sound all bad, which is good. But sounds like most people are having a similar year then. Agree with the main issues being that it's harder to get on bets now - have you been using Drin? Their Skype broker has been good but has been out of action for weeks, which is the tip of the iceberg really. Unclear why but could be because being forced out of china / new regulations or something. Some are expecting that brokers will soon only take the most mainstream leagues pre-game (and still only on Matchday).

    So yeah, getting on can be a pain. I've similarly been trying to make most of bookie accounts / shops.

    My year was going really well up to end of August but lost about 75% of profit since then and mostly been constant losses. Still managing decent odds beat against asia closing line but variance refusing to change.

    Will miss it though. ☹️

  32. #3832
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I think Sing have just realised they can do whatever they want in pre-game and brokers can no longer afford to absorb the voids. Live is better because there is apparently far more liquidity from locals. Maybe it's a covid thing, dunno, surely their turnover has gone to shit now with everyone avoiding them.

  33. #3833
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Can a professional gambler afford to have a bad year?

  34. #3834
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Depends if the convergence is diverging.

  35. #3835
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I'm still up for the year. I can't imagine the depression that would be involved with a losing year.

  36. #3836
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Leeds & Leicester @ 23/2. Great value.

  37. #3837
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Harris English is trying to win this.

  38. #3838
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    I still have access to one of the big Asian agents who I placed Benham's bets with. If that sounds like it may be of value to you mandem give me a PM and I'll see if he's about and we can negotiate my cut.

  39. #3839
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    English with a part place salvaging things somewhat. Streb winning is an absolute classic golf happening- hasn't done anything at all for almost five years, and there he is, bringing it home with balls of steel at about 4 billion to one. The three people in the world who backed him antepost will be doing lines off the ceiling tonight.

  40. #3840
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Only one tournament this week - Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek

    Bezuidenhout 16/1
    Jordan 35/1
    Sterne 60/1
    Pavon 100/1
    Lawrence 200/1
    Jerling 1000/1 (pennies on this, if you can find a top 20 market or something then do that instead)

    The computer seems to be giving me a Frenchman a week at the moment, presumably on the wind up.

  41. #3841
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Thoughts on Zander Lombard?

  42. #3842
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I imagine the tipsters will all have him (haven't looked at them yet) due to course form and an ok week last week, but the computer isn't too impressed and wants 100/1 which is not available as far as I can see.

    For a bit of context, Brandon Stone (2nd favourite with the bookies behind Bob Mac, past winner on this course, great form last week) is rated a miserable 13th in the computer's estimations. It really takes no prisoners.

  43. #3843
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Fascinating stuff. You should run a blog of some kind.

  44. #3844
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Do you really have some kind of computer system spitting these out, or is that just what you're calling your opinion for lols?
    I'm a twit

  45. #3845
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    lol, when I used to use my opinion I'd win half as often if that. The computer reigns supreme.

    EDIT: There is a bit of judgement involved in making the actual selections, but the base data I use basically tells me the 15% of players in a tournament that are OK or good value, and the 85% where the bookies are having you over. Obviously the players where the bookies are having you over often (usually, in fact) win, but that doesn't mean they were good value bets.

    You get tournaments like the one we've just had at the RSM where you don't get much return - in this case, just a T6 for Harris English - but all five players made the cut and all tore up the course at various points, so you end the week pretty satisfied that the theory behind it was good.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 23-11-2020 at 08:24 PM.

  46. #3846
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    I have faith in the computer.

  47. #3847
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    Real Madrid 3.2 tonight.... that seems a little big.

  48. #3848
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Veerman @ 33/1
    Fichardt @ 40/1

    £100 return if either comes in.

  49. #3849
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    What a nonce going against The Computer.

  50. #3850
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The computer doesn't hate those two, just not quite stand out enough to make the list. Veerman's been on a hot run but somewhat fear we might just be on the wrong side of it, but good luck.

    It's quite astounding how much it hates Brandon Stone, who is getting tipped everywhere and now in to favourite in some quarters. Let's see who's closer.

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