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View Poll Results: Last chance to predict it right: Who's winning?

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12. You may not vote on this poll
  • Italy

    3 25.00%
  • Spain

    0 0%
  • IT'S COMING HOME! FOR REAL THIS TIME!

    8 66.67%
  • Denmark

    0 0%
  • Anyone but England

    0 0%
  • Who cares, it's ITK season, baby!

    1 8.33%
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Thread: July: The end of the Euros and.... friendlies?

  1. #501
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    Sam Matterface. He's always been utter shit, and he clearly felt he had to get a "defining speech" in towards the end of extra time which was incredibly embarrassing.

  2. #502
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    He started that shit with three minutes to go too. He has watched England before, right?

  3. #503
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Clive Tyldesley sat on the bench as well.

  4. #504
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Get Ally McCoist in for the final with Clive.

    I’ve just noticed two balls being on the pitch for that penalty. Lolz

  5. #505
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thommo View Post
    Sam Matterface. He's always been utter shit, and he clearly felt he had to get a "defining speech" in towards the end of extra time which was incredibly embarrassing.
    It was just begging for a Denmark equalizer.

    The final's going to be really fun.

  6. #506
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    Oh and I would advise any of you that care about England winning this to put however much money you can afford to lose and not care about/would happily lose to see England win on Italy. I'll be putting at least a grand on the opposition.

  7. #507
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    It's double your money at the moment.

  8. #508
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    2.1 appeared and couldn't resist.


  9. #509
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    Actually, how do I make this approach go viral? I could make a grand doing nothing before kick off if it does....

  10. #510
    Senior Member Bam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    . I'll be putting at least a grand on the opposition.
    Alright, calm down big man.

  11. #511
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    If you care as much as we do about England winning, it makes perfect sense. I've been waiting to do it for years, but oh...

    2 grand is showing no balls on my part whatsoever.

  12. #512
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    Actually I think I might go big on this. Enough people are going to work it out for themselves anyway to materially change the odds and if it goes viral (from any source) you're talking about life changing money before the game has even kicked off.

    [START OF MESSAGE]

    This is the full logic:

    If you want to either enjoy England winning on Sunday, or have a few more quid in your pocket do the following, but only with as much money as you can afford to lose/don't care about losing/would gladly pay to see England win:

    Place whatever that amount of money is on Italy winning EURO2020, this has to be to win the tournament. DO NOT, I REPEAT DO NOT, PUT IT ON ITALY TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES. If you do you'll get better odds, but you could end up with the absolute opposite of what this is designed to do. i.e. Italy win the tournament in extra time or on pens, you lose the bet and you lose your money.

    Who do I think will win? I think England will win.

    Why on earth are you telling me to back Italy then?

    Multiple reasons:

    If they do you'll win some money, which will soften the blow of England losing.
    If they don't you'll lose some money, but only as much as you care to lose and you'll enjoy seeing England win a major tournament for what will probably be the first time in your lifetime.
    Bookmaking is a thoroughly repugnant and utterly immoral business model. It works on getting people hooked, all hidden behind 'gamble responsibly lies' and millions chucked at household and trusted names like Harry Redknapp.
    If Italy win and millions or even billions are placed on them, the bookies will lose fortune. But, get in quick as as soon as they get a whiff of this they'll slash the odds or withdraw the book entirely. Thus further proving the point above. The house always wins, or at least tries to stack the odds in their favour through manipulation.
    Even though I think England will win, the odds on them doing so are a perfect example of this. i.e. they're far too short. Italy are a much better team and have played far better than we have throughout almost the entire tournament. We are at home, but that could prove to be a hindrance more than a help.

    Will you make money out of this?

    Yes. How much depends on two things. Firstly whether Italy win and secondly whether enough people take this up. If enough people take this up the odds on Italy will be slashed to the point where I can back England for the same amount and it will be impossible to lose.

    Basically I could lose my bet and money staked (like all of you who follow this), or I could win enough to cover a lovely holiday, right up to a small fortune. I want to be completely transparent about this and will happily reveal how much (somehow) when it's all over.

    What's the catch?

    Nothing. Either England win, the bookies do well out of it (as they will anyway if England win), we all get to enjoy that and we've only lost an amount of money we don't care about or Italy win and we make a few quid (should be about double your money) to offset the heartache of England losing. And the morally repugnant bookies get completely screwed.

    Just don't bet more than you don't care about losing and we all win in some way. And if you're new to gambling, absolutely ignore any enticing introductory offers, withdraw the money (if Italy win), close the account and never place another bet again in your life.

    [END OF MESSAGE]
    Last edited by Yevrah; 08-07-2021 at 07:22 AM.

  13. #513
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    Can you gents sense check that for any factual errors/nonsense/flaws before I (and hopefully we) start sharing?

  14. #514
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    If you're all in bed cunted while we snooze on the biggest TTH windfall in our history I'm going to be mildly annoyed. We've got 3 days to land this.

    All criticism, constructive or otherwise is welcome. Just do what you normally do when I post something.

  15. #515
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    Have you had any sleep, Yev?

  16. #516
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    I have a question. How would the bet be voided where you wouldn't get your stake back? Is that possible? Terrorist attack on the England band? Both buses get stuck in front of Extinction Rebellion?

  17. #517
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    Priti Patel retroactively enforcing her immigration rules and half the team getting deported.

  18. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    Have you had any sleep, Yev?
    No. I was absolutely pumped after we won. But that's not important. Your thoughts? Other than Sincere, we must have some viral experts on here?

  19. #519
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    Oh I'm absolutely not in any position to offer any advice other than that I really do think you should get some sleep. The betting lads will be along at some point to offer their insight I'm sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    Other than Sincere, we must have some viral experts on here?

  20. #520
    Senior Member Gray Fox's Avatar
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  21. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    Right, time for some real talk.

    We were good for 6 minutes of injury time and for the first half of extra time, for the rest of it we were abysmal, interspersed with moments of ok. Denmark looked dangerous every time they came forward and our much lauded defence was shaky at best.
    Kane continually dropping deep or wide must have been intentional and it's an absolute nonsense. When he was in the middle, he looked dangerous and we were good. No coincidence that was only for about 20 minutes.

    While I was rightly corrected by James that losses in the past, with completely different players, have any bearing on the here and now, there is clearly something that's in our psyche that doesn't lend itself to knockout football for England. Pickford's looked solid all tournament and was a complete shambles tonight. Kane's penalty was absolutely horrific - an effort I'd have been disappointed with. Interesting that we also played far better than any other game away from Wembley.

    But, but, but, we won, and on balance I'd say we deserved to and I think we'll win on Sunday too. My primary reasoning is that it just feels like it's time, but if you want a footballing one, 8 at the back with Sterling and a.n.other pace merchant terrorising their ageing backline will be enough to see us through. I think we'll concede, but will probably score a couple. The 8 at the back should keep Kane up front and centre too, which will help hugely.

    Which then leads me onto Southgate, he'll be knighted and righty so, but we should part ways with him at the end of the tournament and get someone else in who can play football with a plan that involves some attacking intent. I got it wrong against Germany, he set out what he wanted to do and the players executed it superbly, but there was no plan tonight and (let's be fair, against a second tier team) we were pretty shocking for most of it, with the second half of extra time an abomination of an approach. This approach and style of football will never be good enough to win another tournament, where we'll be facing at least two good teams, another with historical significance and if we're lucky, one poor one over a four game knockout run. Against that calibre of opposition we'll never win anything playing like this and we'll never get another run in a tournament against such wank or knackered opposition as we've faced here. Which is also why we'll be the worst winners of an international tournament in my lifetime, and by some margin.

    But on Sunday at least, that won't matter. It'll have come home.

  22. #522
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    Forget about that shit, it's last night's chip paper. What's wrong with my plan?

  23. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    Oh I'm absolutely not in any position to offer any advice other than that I really do think you should get some sleep. The betting lads will be along at some point to offer their insight I'm sure.



    Cheers. I'm in work now anyway.

  24. #524
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Yev, you've run mad. Betting on the opposite of what you want to happen is a well-worn thing. Go and do it if you like. My grandad used to bet on Labour to win every election, to ease the pain if they did.

    I'm the biggest football fan in the office and also the only person who has turned up on time for an 8.30 start in my bit. Fucking part timers.

  25. #525
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Anyone unable to answer your proposed quiz should be handed a P45 upon arrival.

  26. #526
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Yev, you've run mad. Betting on the opposite of what you want to happen is a well-worn thing. Go and do it if you like. My grandad used to bet on Labour to win every election, to ease the pain if they did.

    I'm the biggest football fan in the office and also the only person who has turned up on time for an 8.30 start in my bit. Fucking part timers.
    That’s everyone’s first response and then they think about manipulation through betfair via it going viral and they have another run at it.

    Your Grandad may have been a trailblazer but he didn’t have the internet to help him.

    People love England winning
    People love a story
    People love money
    People hate bookies
    People love finding things on the internet

    I need specifics as to why it won’t work. Not that it’ll be hard or you’re mad. Everyone who did anything of note was probably told they were mad. Hell, my first boss in finance laughed at me when I asked him how to get further.

  27. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    You think that Yev post is mental when he starts off saying England were shit until injury time and then by the end of it he's both knighting and sacking the manager.

    What chemicals are going in that hot tub?
    "We're not suited to knockout football." We've only won five knockout games under him.

    To put things in perspective, there are very, very few managers that transition from club to international football. Trappatoni and Capello completely fucked it. Andriy Shevchenko is getting some good out of Ukraine. You're not working with players on a daily basis, don't have a wealth of talent at your disposal and you're not in control of things like player development. The only time you really spend together is in a tournament.

    I think Yev expects club performances on international level. That fallacy caught out Gerrard and Lampard's generation. To put things in perspective, Sam Allardyce. It could've been him taking us to Russia. Would have have managed this or would Yev be moaning about how "It's all too slow and terrible!" as we drop out to Columbia.

  28. #528
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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  29. #529
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    Specifically I’d like to know as a concept how this is better or worse than GameStop.

  30. #530
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    Can we shunt this to the betting thread so the people who care can wank on about it and the rest of us can just shout IT'S COMING HOME at each other?

  31. #531
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    That’s everyone’s first response and then they think about manipulation through betfair via it going viral and they have another run at it.

    Your Grandad may have been a trailblazer but he didn’t have the internet to help him.

    People love England winning
    People love a story
    People love money
    People hate bookies
    People love finding things on the internet

    I need specifics as to why it won’t work. Not that it’ll be hard or you’re mad. Everyone who did anything of note was probably told they were mad. Hell, my first boss in finance laughed at me when I asked him how to get further.
    It'll be offset and more by the power of mug money, I'd have thought.

  32. #532
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    I’ll start it’s own thread soon.

  33. #533
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    I'm sure I read that retail gamblers basically have no impact on prices because the institutions have algorithms that scoop up any sniff of value.

  34. #534
    Senior Member Andy's Avatar
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    I'm not going to bet against England. I don't think winning a couple of grand would help with my mood if England lost, the agony goes pretty quickly and I'd be back to Saints running my weekends in a couple of weeks anyway.

    And on the other hand losing a couple of grand would sour the celebrations a bit if we win.

  35. #535
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spikey M View Post
    I'm sure I read that retail gamblers basically have no impact on prices because the institutions have algorithms that scoop up any sniff of value.
    And this. Viral Yevrah isn't going to touch what Lord Chunkington can do as soon as the prices move away from what's realistic. The good Lord will just chuck half a million at the market and it'll be back to rights.

  36. #536
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    These politicians that tried to make the England team part of their ongoing culture war and then doing the ingerlund shit now they’re winning is so embarrassing.

  37. #537
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    You’re missing the bigger picture gents.

    If I get tickets to the final out of this it’ll be a success.

  38. #538
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    I don’t really care about the money.

  39. #539
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    These celebrations and Sunday's antics should hopefully accelerate the COVID wave, could do with it having already ran through the crowds by the time the clubs reopen.

  40. #540
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    The UK bookmakers will make bonkers money on a final involving England regardless of what the public ends up doing. I can guarantee they are licking the lips. The asian football market is too big for anything like this to be anything but a drop in the ocean. The real big boys bet on the likes of singbet, ibcbet, pinnacle, betisn and by kick off it takes hundreds of millions to shift the price. Any liabilities the bookies may have are laid off in Asia and they are extremely good at pricing games at the exact point that entices money on all outcomes.

    I'm not sure that attempting to bash the bookies by having your money on a an exchange really holds either, considering it's potentially Joe Public's England bet you're laying and Mr. Betfair is skimming a cool 5% off both of you.

  41. #541
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    Yev has officially jumped the shark.

  42. #542
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    Apologies for derailing the thread, I'll tidy it up later and start a new one.

  43. #543
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    So much madness in here.

    Absolutely loved the second half of extra time. I can only imagine how awful those last 5 minutes would have been as a Denmark fan, they literally had none of the ball. Was also bang up for what I thought was the plan (steal a goal and then use all our subs to bring on defenders) but he sort of bottled it after doing the Trippier/Grealish sub (), could have had White and Mings on as well.

    Never a penalty, but also never being overturned. What was the crack with the one where Kane got mown down? Was there a foul in the build up.

    He's obviously going to go with the same basic team in the final, maybe even the Germany one. It'll be rancid but it might just work. Rice and Phillips are just horrific but I guess they do a lot I don't appreciate.

  44. #544
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    Have you had any sleep, Yev?


    Lol

  45. #545
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    You can't because none of them have had as east draws as we have. Go and have a look. It just doesn't happen very often. Brazil in 2002 might be the closest example, but even then their run was harder than this. Far harder.

    And your first line is absolute nonsense. It's football not conkers.
    Our draw in 2018 was more favourable than this.

  46. #546
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    Yev must have been watching a different game if he thinks Denmark looked threatening every time they came forward. We had a 20 minute spell where our keeper was shitting his pants and yet they offered nothing except for a freekick that probably shouldn't have been given. There was no threat from them in the other 100+ minutes whatsoever.

  47. #547
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Browning View Post
    Yev must have been watching a different game if he thinks Denmark looked threatening every time they came forward. We had a 20 minute spell where our keeper was shitting his pants and yet they offered nothing except for a freekick that probably shouldn't have been given. There was no threat from them in the other 100+ minutes whatsoever.
    It's just innate terror, although our back 7 are quite prone to being exposed alarmingly, which is concerning when you'd imagine the whole idea of all out defence would be to stop that.

  48. #548
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    And as I haven't seen it mentioned in this thread, the biggest crime last night was Matterface (as if that's his name....) claiming Denmark were temporarily "down a member of staff".

  49. #549
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Browning View Post
    And as I haven't seen it mentioned in this thread, the biggest crime last night was Matterface (as if that's his name....) claiming Denmark were temporarily "down a member of staff".
    I heard that and genuinely assumed one of their backroom coaches had been sent off from the bench.

    Also does anyone know what the 'UEFA delegate' was being informed about by a seething fourth official during extra time?

  50. #550
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Probably the laser shenanigans.

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