It's Eurovision week. Semis are tonight and Thursday, final Saturday. I'll cross post my post from the betting thread with links to rehearsal clips and some of the betting chat snipped out.
Big five:
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Italy (4/1) - Rock/rap entries traditionally struggle with juries but this is so well presented that I think they'll buy it. Huge televote numbers are a given and this is guaranteed to look incredible. Will contend for the win, but the jury question mark does remain.
France (4/1) - I think this is wonderful. Star quality and absolutely captivating, the rehearsal clip leaves me gagging for more. The caveats being it might be a bit high brow/pretentious to win, and I wonder if the big finale comes off a touch jarring on the night. I have it as a fairly nailed on jury winner, and seeing as how we get jury results first on the night I think it's a good idea to have this green ahead of time if you're trading the event. How it is rated on sofas will decide the contest.
Spain, UK, Germany - Non-contenders that are not worthy of discussion. UK and Spain come 25th & 26th. Germany might do alright idk.
Semi 1
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Lithuania (44/1) - Q - Slick, fun, but maybe a bit too zany? Will certainly mop up a ton of televote. Should be fairly nailed on for a top 10 finish.
Russia (70/1) - Q - They've really nailed the staging on this, should be very memorable and assured of a good televote. Potentially even ticks the authenticity box for the jury. Top 10.
Sweden(90/1) - Q - I can't remember a Swedish entry this bad. Once again they get their national selection wrong and send the wrong act. Completely forgettable and should get lost among the plentiful more engaging performances. Could genuinely see it not qualifying and the TQ lay at 1.2 is certainly value.
Cyprus (13/1) - Q - Just as in 2019, Cyprus attempt to recreate their second place finish of 2018 (click here for a reminder of how good that was) by sending an unbeat pop song performed by a scantily clad diva and four dancers in a line. Elena is very competent, but will not come close to being as likeable to the televote as Eleni Foureira even if she does do a lot more smiling. This is one of the better entries of this genre, but I'm truly baffled it's traded as low as 11 the past few days. True odds of this winning are 100/1+.
Norway (210/1) - Q - It's a massive gimmick, but there's usually one that does well. Obvious jury poison. Anywhere between 10th and 20th sounds about right.
Ukraine (40/1) - Q - This will be a big fan favourite and has drawn the absolute pimp slot in the semi. Probably too weird to properly contend.
Malta (13/2) - Q - Instantly went favourite when the song came out, and I get it. It's contemporary, attention grabbing, huge vocally, has a message etc. Is it more memorable than the other favourites? I don't think so. Maybe too much of a Lizzo/Netta tribute act, and might get lost in the sea of uptempo pop. It's definitely not a bad one to have onside but the current 13/2 in the outright is probably about right.
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Australia (880/1) - Borderline - This is a curious one. I really like it, and should go down better with the juries than Croatia, Israel etc., but it has loads going against it. Lack of USP, rotten draw, but also lack of diaspora/voting friends and the fact that it'll be an empty stage with a home video playing. The latter element introduces a lot of uncertainty but I hear the execution is quite impressive and might not even be noticable to the lay viewer. Basically it's probably at the mercy of the juries, which is worrying considering that it's a tricky song to sing and Montaigne has far from a spotless record when it comes to live vocals. I do hope it's a success but steering clear in the betting.
Romania (330/1) - Borderline - I backed this as low as 35 in the outright pre-rehearsals which is clearly a turd. Just doesn't come to life on stage or showcase Roxen's vocals like it should. Possibly in trouble.
Ireland (310/1) - Borderline - Has a fairly unique staging concept and following the worst song in the contest will elevate it. It's just a bit too breathless though and I can't see it travelling East very well. There is definitely a universe where it qualifies but I'd want a bigger price.
Croatia (200/1) - Borderline - Probably the most generic of the fem-pop acts and I hope it doesn't qualify, but should be competent enough to get through.
Belgium (640/1) - Borderline - They're an actual band who make ACTUAL MUSIC so I have no doubt they'll look good on stage and deliver it well. Song is pretty dull so it's hard to see them not tanking the televote, but juries will reward it in an evening that is very light on jury bait.
Israel (400/1) - Borderline - This lives or dies by the vocal performance on the night. More pretty boring fem-pop and perhaps borderline gimmicky with the whistle notes. Possible NQ.
Azerbaijan (550/1) - Borderline - This is 14th in the running order and I think by that point you're so done with inoffensive popstresses. Also not getting as many of the usual freebies in a semi featuring this many strong Eastern entries.
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Slovenia (1000/1) - NQ - It's not awful, her vocals are excellent in fact, but qualifying from 2nd in the running order, and in between a bunch of stronger acts, is a tall order.
North Macedonia (1000/1) - NQ - A long three minutes. Nailed on last place.
Semi 2
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San Marino (90/1) - Q - They're really, really trying here, and it does kinda bang, but it's hard to see much better than 15th in the final.
Greece (75/1) - Q - Should be superb vocally. The production team have correctly identified that it needs something to set it apart from similar entries this year, so have gone a bit leftfield with the staging (Think Sergey Lazarev 2016). Could look a bit naff or could absolutely nail the retro aesthetic. I'm optimistic.
Iceland (14/1) - Q - They have a huge cult following off the back of their song for last year, which was legitimately great but never going to win Eurovision. This year's entry is similar, but not as good. Nerdy twee stuff does not go down well with the televote and I'm not seeing much jury appeal either. Maybe I'm underestimating the power of the fanwank, but I do think the market is very driven by the west and I can't see this doing much better than 10th.
Bulgaria (17/1) - Q - This is my biggest position in the outright. It should be absolutely charming on the night and has potential for moment of the contest. Can absolutely win. Quite unsure why it's still trading in the high teens.
Finland (150/1) - Q - Very enjoyable Linkin Park tribute act. There's a strong precedent for rock flopping at Eurovision (Hungary '18 a recent example), but this is catchier than many of those and the success story that will be Italy has the potential boost jury sympathy towards this as well. Potentially a surprise top 10.
Switzerland (18/1) - Q - What the hell are they thinking with his staging? The song has a huge ceiling and could've contended but it's completely unvoteable in this form. Top five at absolute best.
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Albania (1000/1) - Q/Borderline - Solid Balkan-diva-core. You've seen it before. Plum draw in a semi that contains loads of voting friends too.
Austria (1000/1) - Q/Borderline - Absolute dirge of a song but Vincent does a decent job of selling it. Should get through.
Serbia (420/1) - Q/Borderline - I saw this described as 3 influencers getting trashed and doing karaoke and I can't do any better than that. I love it tbh, it could go down an absolute storm though is guaranteed to tank the jury.
Portugal (200/1) - Borderline - The aesthetic here makes me want to vomit. As a result I'm not sure I can judge it objectively. Market seems to think it qualifies and I cba getting involved.
Denmark (460/1) - Borderline - A rubbish song performed by a couple of randoms plucked from the queue for an £1 vodka coke 80s night. Has an absolute dream running order slot though, following load of weird dirge in semi 2. Absolutely no desire to back even severe odds against TQ mind.
Estonia (1000/1) - Borderline - Hunk in an undone tie. It's pretty listenable and I quite like it but the weak semi draw could be a killer.
Moldova (1000/1) - Borderline - Pleasant enough, but lots of acts that do the same thing better.
Latvia (1000/1) - Borderline - It's a bit moody and unfortunately perhaps not good enough a song for that not to be a dealbreaker. She's got a good set of pipes on her though.
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Czech Republic (1000/1) - NQ - Really badly performed and the worst draw imaginable.
Poland (1000/1) - NQ - A complete mess.
Georgia (1000/1) - NQ - Nope
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