F1 2021 - Covid 2: Viral Boogaloo

[niko_cee]

Ah yes, British tv says “Lewis” is hard done by. Legit.

I think that analysis is right, but what it misses is that Verstappen's chuck it up the inside theory can also work without running people off the track [see the second restart last week]. I think a lot of his early days flat out dangerous double moving etc is probably being held against him [perhaps not unfairly, he is quite dangerous].

I was also coming round to your thinking on the over praise he was getting for his qualy lap [in the end keeping it between the kines is a skill] but I do think it shows he probably is the best in terms of pure pace. Whilst I want Hamilton to win, Verstappen winning might be better for the sport as not winning will break him and Red Bull will probably be absolutely useless again next year once all the new regs come in and Mercedes can money/outsmart everyone to death.

Disco has Jos's number, between him and Horner Max has little hope.

[Disco]

https://jalopnik.com/did-haas-f1-pho...r-f-1848193338

[Shindig]

I admire the improvisation.

[Disco]

On the face it the FP3 times look rather good for Mercedes but sand not exactly hard to come by this weekend. I still expect Red Bull to go aggressive in qualifying to try and get track position either by starting ahead or using the soft for a pace advantage early on. Although if these times are reliable it may not matter, especially given the race is a couple of hours later in the day.

[thommo]

Lewis pootling out of the pits and blocks Mazepin in FP3 for the 2nd week in a row. Communication in Mercedes needs to be improved, it's happening too frequently.

[Gray Fox]

I never bother with FP1, but in FP2, Mercedes had 0.6/7 seconds in hand. In FP3 it was closer, but Max and Lewis kept aborting flying laps on the soft as the tyres were burning up midway through the lap.

The key here is FP2 was an evening session, as Qualy and the race will be. A massive heat difference. Cooler running and harder tyres has suited the Mercedes all year long so you'd suggest they're on top as it is. I reckon there's been a fair amount of sandbagging too.

Button thinks Red Bulls FP2 programme means they're locked in to starting on softs for both guys. Also interesting to note that they've gone for their skinniest rear wing, while Mercedes don't seem to have.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They're going to need track position I think. I can't imagine a scenario where Max is able to reel Lewis in from behind, unless there's some massive tyre or strategic difference that you really wouldn't expect at this godforsaken venue.

I would have thought they will be softing up all four bulls in Q2, probably a big undercut here as you have to drive through the hotel foyer to rejoin.

[Giggles]

As much as I’d love to see a top two smash for the absolute meltdown it would cause, I don’t see Verstappen even featuring as a factor in this race at all this weekend. Hamilton has been the best driver over the whole year anyway and will win it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think the crucial part in crash or no crash will be whether Bottas can park himself between them.

If they end up in hand to hand combat, there's going to be a crash, or at least an incident of some kind.

[Disco]

Bottas and Perez might as well be holograms they've been that far behind the other two recently.

[Giggles]

Bottas won’t need to feature, luckily for Hamilton and Merc. It’s looking like a race off into the distance.

[Shindig]

I think the crucial part in crash or no crash will be whether Bottas can park himself between them.

Nah, Verstappen from 3rd on the grid is still rapid. He's possibly the best starter out of them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

These Petronas ads have real SPECTRE vibes. Do they have any idea how it all comes across?

[Gray Fox]

Well then. Seems like Max was forced into softs, rather than wanting to. Lewis only 0.3 behind on a scrappy looking mediums lap too.

[Giggles]

That’s adding about 0.8 onto Hamilton isn’t it did they say? Gap is huge.

[Disco]

Red Bull starting on softs, I think I'd be quite happy to see that if I was Mercedes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I dunno. The fact they had Perez on softs too makes me think that was their play all along.

[Waffdon]

Yeah, I’m not sure that’s good news at all for them. Im not sure if it really matters if Hamilton is behind Verstappen with them long straights but I suppose it’s best to be in front and avoid being wiped out

[Gray Fox]

With them both on softs this Q3 becomes crucial. If Max can be in front of Bottas tomorrow then we're heading straight for that turn 1 crash. Bottas needs to stick it on 2nd.

[Disco]

Red Bull have tended to prefer the softer compounds this year so they may get more out of them on Sunday than Mercedes.

[Shindig]

Bottas is on an old engine so I don't think he'll have the grunt to challenge.

Okay, that tow looks massive.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They've gone for the Kenyan 5,000m approach, cracking stuff.

[Gray Fox]

This is all coming up Red Bull here.

[Giggles]

Merc going for the same approach here.

Or not. Surprised after how the came out on top of each other.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think the tyre difference means Hamilton doesn't have to be aggressive into T1. Too close to call for me.

[Waffdon]

This couldn’t be any better set up with Verstappen on softs and pole. Offft

[Gray Fox]

That's perfect for tomorrow.

Big showcase that the Mercedes doesn't enjoy the softer compounds. We may well see 2 stop v attempted 1 stop.

[Disco]

How is Norris third, they've been nowhere for weeks. Similar to last week pace-wise for the top two, Verstappen looking faster in qualy but it remains to be seen if that can be translated to race pace.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Valtteri 6th a fine sign-off to his Mercedes career.

Can't wait to see if Russell can get amongst the top two, pace-wise (assuming those are still the two cars to beat, which is by no means certain).

[Shindig]

I think he might but I've never been wholly convinced of his ability to manage a race.

[Waffdon]

That's perfect for tomorrow.

Big showcase that the Mercedes doesn't enjoy the softer compounds. We may well see 2 stop v attempted 1 stop.

Has 2 stop ever worked here?

I fucking love Lando. I can’t wait until he gets a proper car.

[Gray Fox]

Has 2 stop ever worked here?

I fucking love Lando. I can’t wait until he gets a proper car.

Track is much faster, with now 3 or 4 long sweeping fast corners, so previous data doesn't really apply.

[Disco]

It's been a one stopper traditionally and that has been the favoured strategy almost everywhere else too.

[Baz]

When's this exciting race on then? Even my parents are talking about it.

[Disco]

These Petronas ads have real SPECTRE vibes. Do they have any idea how it all comes across?

If it's anywhere short of doing a literal war crime then they've come out ahead.

[Giggles]

When's this exciting race on then? Even my parents are talking about it.

Sky Sports F1 and Channel 4.

[Disco]

For streams, this one is pretty good: https://www.streameast.io/fb/

Or there are loads more here: https://v2.sportsurge.net/

[Baz]

The correct answer appears to be 1pm on Sunday.

Thanks Baz.

[Waffdon]

If you bothered to look the thread you’d have got your answer.

[Giggles]

Horner really looks like he doesn’t enjoy this.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Nico Rosberg asked Horner earlier if he ever gets snappy with his wife. The facial expression was a picture.

[Giggles]

Rosberg only goes on there to try wind up as many people as he can.

[thommo]

I think he might but I've never been wholly convinced of his ability to manage a race.

He was a don in F2. And his one drive in a Mercedes cemented my belief that he can control races from the front. It'll be great to see how he performs, especially in comparison to Lewis.

[Giggles]

I wonder does he factor tomorrow? For all Hamilton’s media button pressing, Verstappen would want to be watching himself with Russel too. He’s on the books already with zero to lose.

[Gray Fox]

Not a chance anyone else gets involved. You don’t want your career with that stain on it.

[Shindig]

Yeah, it did Piquet no favours.

[niko_cee]

What's the crack with the tyres then? Offset strategies sounds like it could be fun. Red, yellow, yellow for Verstappen and then either yellow, white or yellow, yellow, red for Hamilton? How long are the softs likely to hang on from the start? Will there be time to build a buffer to the field or is Verstappen likely to be pitting into the midfield clusterfuck? Definitely feel the denouement could be one of them chasing the other down on much better tyres.

[Gray Fox]

If it's a 2 stop race for both, you've got it right. Though Max does not have a new set of mediums. Lewis has 1, so he is still on the optimum strategy.

It is possibly a 1 stop, which would go Medium to Hard, but that one is probably out of the window for Max now. I'm not sure those softs would last long enough.

It all depends on tyre deg. If it's high and pushes to a 2 stop, you'd think Hamilton will bye his time for later in the race.

[Disco]

Medium to Hard, then you have the option of switching to a Soft if Verstappen is coming back at them too quickly.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'll certainly be going from medium to hard if it turns out that a 1-stopper is the only way to go.