I think that analysis is right, but what it misses is that Verstappen's chuck it up the inside theory can also work without running people off the track [see the second restart last week]. I think a lot of his early days flat out dangerous double moving etc is probably being held against him [perhaps not unfairly, he is quite dangerous].
I was also coming round to your thinking on the over praise he was getting for his qualy lap [in the end keeping it between the kines is a skill] but I do think it shows he probably is the best in terms of pure pace. Whilst I want Hamilton to win, Verstappen winning might be better for the sport as not winning will break him and Red Bull will probably be absolutely useless again next year once all the new regs come in and Mercedes can money/outsmart everyone to death.
Disco has Jos's number, between him and Horner Max has little hope.