Betting - TTH's wisdom of crowds - Premier League 17-19th October

[Reg]

Original thread here - http://www.thethirdhalf.co.uk/showth...sdom-of-crowds

Please PM your predictions, copying this list and adding a number besides each fixture - '1' for home win, '2' for a draw, '3' for away win. (Note: I agree with Yev's suggestion that if you're not sure about a certain match, just leave it blank.)

Saturday
Tottenham v Liverpool
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Crystal Palace v West Ham
Everton v Man Utd
Man City v Bournemouth
Southampton v Leicester
West Brom v Sunderland
Watford v Arsenal

Sunday
Newcastle v Norwich

Monday
Swansea v Stoke

[Baz]

I've sent mine.

[TG09]

Sent PM

[Reg]

Cheers to all who've sent so far!

Sent. Still think we're better off doing handicaps rather than outright results but meh.

Would we not still predict the winner/draw though? And then discuss where value is for handicaps?

[Reg]

Cheers to all so far, 9 in, would be good if we could get it to 15+.

[Reg]

Results

Thanks for the predictions (11). Here are the results:

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Using the consensus categorising from before (between 1.67 and 2.33 is a draw), bold for a winner and neither team bolded for a draw:

Saturday
Tottenham v Liverpool 1.636363636
Chelseav Aston Villa 1.181818182
Crystal Palace v West Ham 1.818181818
Everton v Man Utd 2.090909091
Man City v Bournemouth 1
Southampton v Leicester 1.4
West Brom v Sunderland 2.1
Watford v Arsenal 2.909090909

Sunday
Newcastle v Norwich 2.363636364

Monday
Swansea v Stoke 1.6

Note: the Tottenham, Newcastle and Swansea games are all very narrow consensuses.

[Andy]

This looks like a great idea, I'll get involved next time.

I'm going to take away the three which are a narrow consensus and also the early game and put an accumulator on the other 6.

[Byron]

Reg, are you sure the Chelsea game is right? Looks like the consensus is a home win.

[Reg]

Sorry yes you're right Byron. Corrected.

[Boydy]

I've already got my bet on with a draw in that match.

NICE ONE.

[Reg]

Apologies! Was in a rush.

[Boydy]

I'm just kidding. I've only got a quid on an accumulator anyway.

[Andy]

I put £7.50 on the Saints, City, Arsenal winning and Palace/West Ham draw.

[SvN]

I've got a fiver on the ones that we're most confident in to return about £100

[Reg]

How'd we do yesterday?

Saturday
Tottenham v Liverpool 1.636363636* - incorrect
Chelsea v Aston Villa 1.181818182 - correct
Crystal Palace v West Ham 1.818181818 - incorrect
Everton v Man Utd 2.090909091 - incorrect
Man City v Bournemouth 1 - correct
Southampton v Leicester 1.4 - incorrect
West Brom v Sunderland 2.1 - incorrect
Watford v Arsenal 2.909090909 - correct

*=narrow consensus

3/8 successful.

[Baz]

United won 3-0.

[Reg]

Yes they did. Cheers.

3/8.

[SvN]

Pretty shambolic overall. We should probably consider targeting the games with a large disparity between the bookie odds and our consensus.

[Reg]

We'd need a better consensus success rate, whatever route we'd take.

What are peoples' thoughts going forward with this? Worth carrying on? Shall we adapt it somehow?

I think it's fair to say it hasn't worked out as hoped so far.

[-james-]

I think you underestimate how hard it is to find an edge over the odds in a league like this unless you have a PhD in maths and a few years to spare.

[Baz]

C'mon then @ItalAussie

[Reg]

Yeah, it's not surprising really, @dino. I thought it'd be an interesting experiment, which it kinda has been.

[Yevrah]

Pretty shambolic overall. We should probably consider targeting the games with a large disparity between the bookie odds and our consensus.

I'd go along with that. Perhaps ruling out any odds below 1.5 (maybe 1.8) as there's little point and just discussing the shit out of the other games until we find one or two where we have an 'edge'.

[Reg]

I'd be up for making it all public and doing the above. Perhaps trying one round per week, and getting a good 5 or 6 days worth of conversation/debate in.

edit-

Problem is I can't see that happening. If we're having around 10 people predicting each round, I don't think long drawn-out discussions are likely.

[TG09]

Southampton v Leicester - This game cost me, got the other 7 right.