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View Poll Results: Which will be the game of the month?

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  • Real Oviedo v Mirandes

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  • Rosenborg v Valerenga

    0 0%
  • Napoli v Roma

    1 33.33%
  • AFC Bournemouth v Leicester City

    1 33.33%
  • Krylya Sovetov v PFC Sochi

    1 33.33%
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Thread: July Football: Five games

  1. #1151
    I used to be funny.
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    Warnock

  2. #1152
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    Incredible end to the season in the Championship. Everyone wanking themselves silly over Brentford only for them completely bottle it and lose to Stoke and Barnsley is absolutely glorious.

    Cardiff in the playoffs then, I think we should make it past them over 2 legs, we comfortably beat them 2-0 a fortnight ago.

  3. #1153
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Pulisic is so fucking good

  4. #1154
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Who went up?

  5. #1155
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    He's incredible

  6. #1156
    Senior Member Max Power's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thommo View Post
    Incredible end to the season in the Championship. Everyone wanking themselves silly over Brentford only for them completely bottle it and lose to Stoke and Barnsley is absolutely glorious.

    Cardiff in the playoffs then, I think we should make it past them over 2 legs, we comfortably beat them 2-0 a fortnight ago.
    Can’t let forest off the hook. Amazing to bottle the playoffs like that. 6 goal swing on the final day!

  7. #1157
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    My Liverpool died on that fateful night against Atletico.

  8. #1158
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He is spellbinding to watch in the way Hazard was.

  9. #1159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giggles View Post
    Who went up?
    West Brom, despite drawing 2-2.

  10. #1160
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Ah, West Brom.


  11. #1161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Max Power View Post
    Can’t let forest off the hook. Amazing to bottle the playoffs like that. 6 goal swing on the final day!
    Unbelievable last 20 minutes in both games - I can understand Swansea thumping a few past 10-man Reading but for Forest to implode like that is incredible. Swansea come into the playoffs in good form too - they could upset Brentford if they don't shake off those 2 losses.

  12. #1162
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giggles View Post
    Ah, West Brom.

    Under Billic though. A little bit more interesting.

  13. #1163
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don View Post
    My Liverpool died on that fateful night against Atletico.
    Nah, this is a vintage performance. The real anomaly has been the last year of clean sheets and comfortable wins.

  14. #1164
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    If I had one piece of advice for Joe Gomez it would be to connect his beard to his hair.

  15. #1165
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Oh

  16. #1166
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    The absolute ease they concede goals is fascinating.

    I couldn’t think of a worse player than Jorginho defending a counter attack

  17. #1167
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Can these commentators stop making Lallana out to be some fucking 50 year old mascot? He'd walk into every XI outside of City, he's being protected you clueless cunts.

  18. #1168
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Where is he going, back to Southampton?

  19. #1169
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    lol at all the defenders stopping there and just shouting "KEPA".

  20. #1170
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Where is he going, back to Southampton?
    https://www.theguardian.com/football...fer-says-klopp

    Leicester likely.

    Lol at those quotes btw.

  21. #1171
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry View Post
    lol at all the defenders stopping there and just shouting "KEPA".
    Yup, that's the kind of gold revealed by the lack of crowd noise.

    That was the most enjoyable Liverpool game for a while, though I'm biased because I'll never not be happy about Pulisic scoring.

  22. #1172
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    There were a few months, I think during the early Klopp years, where Lallana was insanely good, culminating in him taking a penalty for England (wtf?) and being linked with £85m moves to the likes of PSG.

    Then he got injured, again, and that was that. I hope he goes somewhere and is good.

  23. #1173
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Liverpool’s XG was 1.32 to Chelsea’s 2.57. James will be having a fit

  24. #1174
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The xG from that Trent free kick alone was 1 so I'm not buying that.

  25. #1175
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    All the talk of De Bruyne being a shoe-in for the player of the year (has his season really been that exceptional in, say, the way Slaah's was a few years ago?) makes me wonder why Alexander-Arnold doesn't seem to be in the debate. A phenomenal player and a(nother) phenomenal season.

    I didn't see the third Chelsea goal, was it some sort of tap-in? That's the only way they could be hitting those sort of xG numbers (seeing as the other two goals were from about 2 yard out with no 'keeper).

  26. #1176
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Cause he's a black life.

  27. #1177
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    He is, nominally at least, a defender.

    As if we're just gonna start pretending defenders are real footballers, Niko. Fucking behave yourself.

  28. #1178
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Aye, and a fullback to boot. No chance.

    Poor Minamino looks a right billy no mates in all this.

  29. #1179
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    The xG from that Trent free kick alone was 1 so I'm not buying that.
    The place I go to for my xG needs tells me it was actually 0.04. I think he might have scored 4 freekicks this season, and I'm fairly sure he hasn't taken 100. It's absolute wank. Van Dijk had Liverpool's best xchance and missed it, if Willian scores the first goal the xG is probably about 0.1 but because the 'keeper saves it and Giroud has a tap in the xG from that suddenly leaps up to 0.7 or something, taking chances is actively punished by the metric.

  30. #1180
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Christ, xvideos has treated me well but it might be time to switch to Greenwood goal compilations.

    Bruno throwing a headbutt, good to see the cunt starting to feel at home.

  31. #1181
    Senior Member mugbull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    The place I go to for my xG needs tells me it was actually 0.04. I think he might have scored 4 freekicks this season, and I'm fairly sure he hasn't taken 100. It's absolute wank. Van Dijk had Liverpool's best xchance and missed it, if Willian scores the first goal the xG is probably about 0.1 but because the 'keeper saves it and Giroud has a tap in the xG from that suddenly leaps up to 0.7 or something, taking chances is actively punished by the metric.
    That last one would be two xGs summed together, the first shot and the rebounded shot

    And yeah, probably 1 in 25 of those Trent goals gets scored. Trent scores more than 1 in 25 of that type of shot though, so he outperforms his xG, which is the whole point of the metric

    The more I've read into xG the more I like it for what it is. it's properly trained too

  32. #1182
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Who's the average footballer according to xG? Championship?

  33. #1183
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mugbull View Post
    The more I've read into xG the more I like it for what it is. it's properly trained too
    Talk me through it because somehow I've managed to make it this far with zero comprehension (and pretty happily too).

  34. #1184
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    As far as I understand it a footballer who earns the same as a nurse has an xG of 0.0 for every shot at goal they take. If they earn twice what a nurse earns it goes to 0.1, and then it multiplies until anyone on over a hundred grand a week should be scoring every shot they attempt.

  35. #1185
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mugbull View Post
    That last one would be two xGs summed together, the first shot and the rebounded shot
    My complaint is that the metric grossly overvalues 'open goals', and basically assumes all other chances are unlikely to score situations, whereas in reality most goals are not the products of open goal situations, so something seems broken, to me and also that if a player takes a 1 in 10 chance his team suffers on the xG dickheadery, whereas if he scuffs the same chance into the 'keeper but manages to get the rebound in (as an open goal) all of a sudden his team has created a 0.8 goal situation. It feels unbalanced and actually not at all reflective of reality.

  36. #1186
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I think it's pretty good at measuring what it measures, but I also think that in the context of real football matches/competitions all that it actually tells you is who took their chances best, which you can pretty much glean from watching a game/reading the scoreline in the paper the next morning.

    For it to be indicative of much you'd have to be playing a baseball style season to make the sample size massive.

  37. #1187
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    My heart aches when I have to listen to you cunts discuss statistics. Best to just have a ban in place for xG talk on here. One thing Jimmy is right about is it is largely meant for those who didn't actually watch the game, understand the game or were simply too busy tracking planes to do their own cognitive work.

  38. #1188
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    The place I go to for my xG needs tells me it was actually 0.04. I think he might have scored 4 freekicks this season, and I'm fairly sure he hasn't taken 100. It's absolute wank. Van Dijk had Liverpool's best xchance and missed it, if Willian scores the first goal the xG is probably about 0.1 but because the 'keeper saves it and Giroud has a tap in the xG from that suddenly leaps up to 0.7 or something, taking chances is actively punished by the metric.

    Sample sizes m8, what are they. Stuff like the latter point does rankle with me but the better models will mark Giroud's shot down for being created from a rebound. The whole thing, to me, is about repeatability of process. Giroud positioning himself two yards from goal when the ball drops to him is obviously Good Football.

    Single shot xG is obviously useless, single match xG very slightly less so. You've got huge error bars on every data point when looking at individual shots and single game tallies are context ignorant. You really need a season's worth of data for it to be useful, or enough games that the data supports the point you're trying to make natch.

    xG is amazing if you make a living betting on football, but I can see why you lot think it's a load of joyless bollocks tbf.
    Last edited by -james-; 22-07-2020 at 11:43 PM.

  39. #1189
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    What Dino said. Although many of the complaints above about xg are fair, they're only really valid for that particular xg model and a better xg model will address those concerns.

  40. #1190
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    My whole problem with it is that isn't 38 (or 46) games - the longest meaningful span of matches that you ever have in football - still too small to get anything that meaningful? And do teams not change so much within that span as to make it hard to quantify anyway? September Leicester vs June Leicester is an evolution in itself.

  41. #1191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    My whole problem with it is that isn't 38 (or 46) games - the longest meaningful span of matches that you ever have in football - still too small to get anything that meaningful? And do teams not change so much within that span as to make it hard to quantify anyway? September Leicester vs June Leicester is an evolution in itself.
    You can build in various adjustments that account for such issues. And on the sample size point, it will never be 100% accurate but you're comfortably looking at over 15,000 data entries for a 38 game season so it isn't an insubstantial amount of data. Anyway, for my model I actually limit the number of games that affect a team's rating due to outdated data not really being representative of current performance (your Leicester example being a good one).

  42. #1192
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    I'd missed Super Frankie Binman's little seethe last night.



    Chelsea firmly back in the tactical enigma subset after that shitshow, no savant status yet.

  43. #1193
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Frank has won everything in the game (except the World Cup, Euros, World Club Cup and the European Super Cup), I would listen to what he has to say.

  44. #1194
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    As some Leeds' fans have pointed out I'm not really sure he's one to be lecturing on winning with good grace.

  45. #1195
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    They spied on him, niko. It besmirches a man's honour, particularly a man of his standing. You can't take that lying down.

  46. #1196
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    I'm in a boring mood but Frankie is about to match David Moyes record breaking season albeit finish in the CL places.

    4 Chelsea 37 19 6 12 67 54 +13 63
    7 Manchester United 38 19 7 12 64 43 +21 64

  47. #1197
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    Poor Minamino looks a right billy no mates in all this.
    He’s such a weedy loser, doesn’t fit in at all. Never looks like he’ll win a tackle and always looks likely to lose possession when he has it. If he’s been brought in as Firmino’s understudy then someone got his profile way off.

    And that’s coming from me.
    I'm a twit

  48. #1198
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Asians largely lack the big dick energy required to flourish in this league. If he'd gone to Bundesliga, he'd be recognised as some talent by now and could maybe have done a Son after a couple seasons of development.

  49. #1199
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I spend a lot of most days wondering who has the smallest dick in the Premier League. At the moment my best guess is Will Hughes, but I'm open to alternative arguments.

  50. #1200
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    It'll be one of the midgets like Alexis Sanchez.

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