In the spirit of open source, here's the heavily detailed data analysis I've been working on:
Initially I'd say we could look at Thommo and Pleb as voting in an early bloc with Lofty; the early votes of 7om, Mokbull, Vercetti, and especially Scouse don't look great either, but it's not quite rock solid evidence.
Last edited by Spoonsky; 03-05-2020 at 07:53 PM.
Just to be honest: I voted for Byron and would have stayed at Byron. Changed my vote to Baz to avoid a double. Two reasons why I didn't change to Lofty: 1) It would make the score 6-8 which means that a simultaneous opposite switch would tie it again and 2) well Baz trying to fuck things up.
TL;DR: If Baz wasn't Baz I would have kept my vote for Byron, as I was none the wiser who it could be among the 4. So I am not sure my part in lynching Lofty (or anyone who played a similar role, like Pepe) should absolve us of suspicion.
Last edited by Adramelch; 03-05-2020 at 07:56 PM.
I'd look at Scouse most closely because he decided to vote for Byron just when Lofty had drawn level with him on votes; a potential wolf-saving vote that in fact started a movement toward Byron and away from Lofty. On the other hand, his activity has been pretty solid and he even said at one point that Lofty and Byron were interchangeable for him (which, honestly, I felt the same), so I'll hold off nominating for now.
That means nothing really. Surely the wolves will be mixing it up, instead of all of them following the same strategy.Originally Posted by Spoonsky
First of all, you wolfie fucks: have some of that, you cunts.
Now, there are some intriguing options for the next round which have been gone over well by others, but for my own part, I said during the last round that we need to be highly suspicious of anyone coming out after me. All I've done all game is bait the furry fucks and now, as predicted, their situation has turned and they need me gone. However, they obviously haven't got the balls to do it themselves and expose who they are, so they're absolutely gasping for the village to do it for them. The village needs to be careful not to be this stupid and fall into their trap. Speaking of which:
He's been after me for a few rounds and now he's dunked the nomination in early with no justification other than 'Something is up there', and 'eyes were turned on him' which I'm not sure they actually were. As he will notice, in the last round, I both nominated and then cast an early vote for our first wolf. Your stinking, canine honour, I rest my case.
I nominate Spikey (first nomination)
Definitely on C now.
I second the nomination of Spikey
One reason the wolves would have to kill AD is that he seconded the nomination of Lofty. Jimmy was the first.
I think Jimmy's pretty well beyond suspicion at this point and might even be the seer; although the fact that Spikey was also crucial to lynching Lofty complicates things slightly.
You know what, I'm fully on board the Spikey train. Why the fuck would you nominate Jimmy one round after he nominated the only wolf we've got so far?
It's a chance to test Jimmy's bravado too.
That's an interesting post for the archives.
Had spoon posted his last 2 posts before my nomination, I wouldn't have nominated you. But nobody likes a revenge nomination Jim. Rude.
Anyway, I won't be voting for you. But you are being odd. Are you playing a character for the game? Are we supposed to be? Can In be Danny Dyer?
That's Dyer, Not Dire. Stand down.
An interesting post which demonstrates they are running not only scared, but fucking TERRIFIED.
Because I'm not keeping track of that. He's being odd and that stood out to me.
I second Jimmy
I'm suspicious of anyone trying to control the narrative, which you definitely are. Fair play, you nominated the wolf. If you are a wolf, that's a big risk, but it's not a get out of jail free card. You've played this game enough (I'm guessing) to be confident in whatever role you have, including that of the wolf-come-villager father figure. It seems to me the only way the wolves can possibly win this game is if (a) you don't find a wolf until near the end of the game, or (b) one wolf has gained so much trust among the villagers that it wouldn't occur to anyone to off them, even at the very end. I still think we came close to catching a wolf in the leadup to the SvN kill and you decided at that point to go with (b).
Spikey is acting completely normally given how he typically posts. You're the wild card.
He nominated Lofty and voted for him to make it 2-2 when he could as easily have voted for Byron and create a bandwagon. I am not saying he's above suspicion, but we can afford to let him be for a while before reassessing the situation, especially since you'd think the seer(s) will get to investigating him sooner rather than later.
Mokbull's name vill also go on ze list.
Wolves are too scared to kill me at night as it would incriminate them, so they went for my seconder AD instead, hoping he would be the seer (RIP AD you're with the angels now). They need me off the game but they need the village to do it for them, luckily the village aren't as dense as the wolves need them to be.
You're right that I consciously changed my gameplay after the SvN death, but you think I'd do that because I was a wolf? lol. Wolves were cruising it at that point, or would have thought they were.
Why would the wolves not kill you off at night? This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have a ready-made explanation for why you're never going to get killed by them
And as for the second part of my genius plan, nominate (as the first nomination in the whole round, might I add) and then vote for a confirmed wolf? I mean, if you're going to put that forward as a wolf-identiying theory we might as well just all leave some raw bacon under our doormats and see who looks fat in the next round of mugshots.
As a wolf, after 5/6 (?) innocent deaths from the start of the game I wouldn't need to take that risk, I'd just carry on chin-stroking and picking them off one by one, maybe chucking in a few red herring votes to keep the group scattered, but nothing as ludicrous as what you're suggesting.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 03-05-2020 at 09:09 PM.
Make me proud lads.
Ludicrous
If you can tell we're going to lynch a wolf or two in the next couple rounds anyway, it's hardly "ludicrous"
Killing off a vocal seer is always a risk; plus, they might have assumed he'd be protected that night the way he was going on.
Jimmy's basically right, it would be crazy for the wolves to chuck one of their own onto the fire when everything else was going so smoothly. And as for being suspicious of anyone controlling the narrative: did you forget that the seers exist? They can't just hide behind silence forever.
There'd be no way to tell that though. You can't even predict who's going to get lynched when the votes are halfway through in this game, yet alone who's getting lynched tomorrow.
Looking at Lofty's voting record, I think the only really interesting thing is the vote he cast for Browning in R3. R1 was an easy villager early (P_3), he nominated and voted early for AyDee in R2, another villager and in R3 he voted for Browning when the vote was 4-5-1-0 between Manc, Browning and whoever else was up (Pepe and Bruh). Jimmy had just changed from Browning to take him from a 3 vote lead (6-3) to a single vote (5-4) between him and Manc. In those circumstances I cannot imagine a wolf knowingly voting for another wolf to put them back ahead by 2. It would be needlessly reckless when you could easily tie it at 5-5 (knowing Manc wasn't a wolf) and no one seemed to have any strong views. From that I am of the opinion that Browning isn't a wolf
I would be interested to know if a few more wolves might not have snuck a vote in for either Browning or Manc early, under the hypothesis of them both being villagers, particularly focusing on anyone who then didn't vote for Lofty when he was on the block.
Unfortunately this is where this get less clear as there a quite a few candidates.
7om, Thommo, Pepe, Mugbull, Baz and AyDee all voted for Browning before Lofty. None of them voted for Lofty.
Vercetti, Spikey and Adra voted for Manc, with only Spikey voting for Lofty (as a vote change).
Now there is a problem in thinking there a couple of wolves in there as it's probably half the fucking field. But it's where I'm working from at the moment.
Hark, more posts.
I don't think Jimmy's a seer. At least, I don't think he has the seer role. Whether he sees things beyond that, I don't know. He could be a villager just like anyone we nominate, but if he is a wolf, the only way he's ever going to survive and not be forced to play like Lofty is by doing exactly that.
I guess it does all hinge on whether you think a wolf would nominate + vote for another wolf. If you truly don't think that could happen given the state of the game last round, then fair play. I disagree
In a world where Jimmy was a wolf I think it is much more likely that, were they to use that type of strategy (nominate and vote out of not much), it would be him that would be nominated. He would have to imagine the seers are going to be interested in him as a 'brand name poster' so unless they were to fluke the seer (or seers) out early doors he wouldn't be getting to the end.
'Brand name poster', that's getting printed on the side of my Octavia.
I'd love to take the credit but someone else used it (I think in this thread) first.
My further quantum crunching has decided I am now most suspicious of Vercetti and 7om, both got an early vote in on Browning (2nd vote for him,4th overall) and Manc (2nd vote for him, 9th overall) respectively and then voted Byron early in the Lofty round before getting the fuck out.
Thommo also put an early vote in on Browning, but he did nominate him, and he voted for Baz when the Byron train was leaving the station. Muggers not above suspicion as well, given his Jimmy nomination and general record.
Some of the other suspects have indulged in the sort of mad shit I wouldn't associate with a wolf - being part of that Mahow madness (Pepe), Adra made a clever switch to avoid the chance of an easy double last time and I feel he is on the level, Spikey had a late switch to Lofty.
I'd be ok with Vercetti and/or Zom as candidates. With that said, I hope that we do not ignore the whole Baz/Byron thing.
Maybe we should say that if Baz wants to nominate Byron, then Baz should nominate Byron?
I'd completely missed the fact that Thommo has nominated Browning AGAIN.
He must really not like that guy. He's firmly back in the alarm bells category.
The current slate of candidates looks pretty dreadful, so this doesn't promise to be a great round, imo.
I'm going to second Vercetti (1st nomination Adra).
Niko is thinking very much along the same lines as me with some of those names there. I would be happy to see an assortment of them up for the next vote. The only ones I wouldn't vote for would be Pepe (since nominating him I've come to the conclusion that he wouldn't have been stupid enough to change votes the way he did and draw attention to himself) and Baz (he is, almost certainly, the village idiot and nothing more).
I don't have a spreadsheet, but those who piled on me/Mahow early as well as those who didn't help us kill Lofty would be where I look. Anyone who ticks 2 out of 3 of those boxes has got to be worth hearing a defense from.
That's about right. I nominated Byron early doors and then followed up on it by voting for him too. In both the nominations and voting stages I said my reasoning for Byron could just as easily apply to Lofty. I would have probably nominated Lofty instead of Byron this morning if someone else hadn't beaten me to it.
I've nominated him again because he was on my radar early and got away with it when in the vote with Manc, in my eyes. Manc was clearly not interested and so the village decided to get rid of the inactive, but I think Browning got away easy there.
He did vote for Lofty last round, but AD brought up some suspicions with him before he was eaten by the wolves, and it just made me wonder. Hence the nomination.
Edit: In response to niko.
I don't know, I'm still behind my hunch on Vercetti. I am of course working with limited evidence, but something just strikes me weird with his posting patterns.
On the Baz/Byron thing: Would a seer in exchange for a wolf be seen as a favourable trade from the wolves' perspective? Because if so, in the event that Byron is a wolf, surely they'd have killed Baz? If it's not seen as a favourable trade of course, they wouldn't because that would lead to Byron getting lynched.
Mugbull is your man by this criteria. 3rd vote for Mahow (3rd vote to be cast as the first 3 all went to him), 4th vote for you (6th vote cast), nominated and voted for Pepe last time (1st vote, 2nd overall).
I nominated Browning in the second round, and initially voted for him, but he put up a very convincing defence so I switched my vote to Manc. As niko pointed out, there's no way Lofty is going to open up a vote lead for Browning if he's a wolf when Manc is there. They probably looked at the two players, thought Browning would be the stronger asset to the village and tried to get him gone.
They failed, of course, because they are fucking useless.
That's a wolf-suspicious post if I ever saw one. Bricking it.
Thank you.
I nominate Mugbull- 1st nomination
Honestly I was fairly sure that was who it was anyway from skimming the thread earlier, but Niko doing the leg work helps. Him going for Jimmy after he served up Lofty's head on a platter just seals the deal.
The amount of detective work on this page alone
This game gets approximately 100x better once you get the first wolf.
I second the nomination of Mugbull
For his voting history detailed above (good work fellas) and for his borderline conspiratorial pursuit of Jimmy.
So that means we have Spikey, Mugball, Jimmy and Vercetti up for voting.
Meanwhile Browning and I have one nomination but not a second.
I can only assume the killing of AyDee was to force suspicion on people who have been vocal for his lynching because there were far better targets, whether you wanted to off a quieter one (Pleb or Vercetti would have fit that bill) or off someone who's been active (like Jimmy or Niko). Looking through the thread for comments on AyDee, there's a lot of people who have suggested killing him but no-one who has been pushing hard to kill him. Looking through;
Then we have his further vote for me when it was 6-4 to me, which was only 51 minutes after Spoon voted. That would have probably been it for me had I not decided to start defending myself.
I nominate Pepe (first nomination)
Regards AD, I reckon they went for him because they feared he might be the seer, has anyone looked into other nominations/votes of his?
I think he only nominated once (Pepe R1) and voted for P_3, 7om/Mahow, Browning and Lofty. Might be wrong on the nomination bit though.
I can't see anything alarming in those facts alone, although he may have said things which spooked them. I still find it an odd choice.
I also don't know why (as the seer) you'd be looking to investigate Lofty - if it were me I'd have done the most active players first like Taz, me, niko, Spikey etc to build a picture.
Everything points to the wolfy wolves being morons. We've got them rope-a-doping already.
I knew I'd get put on the list with that post.
If our strategy is purely to relitigate old votes, then:
- I voted for Browning despite nominating Manc because I came around to the idea that Manc was a jaded villager and Browning was the next best option there.
- I didn't vote for Lofty because at this point, after the previous round, I became highly suspicious of Pepe, and still am - though it appears (with a couple exceptions) that no one is interested in putting him on the list again, which is a mistake imo.
My intent in nominating Jimmy was to at least start a discussion about him, when it seemed like everyone bar Spikey had reached the conclusion that he is untouchable. That can't happen and it looks like nobody is taking the idea seriously. If we're basing our suspicions entirely around level 1 voting patterns then the wolves are going to win, because all they need to do is vote for themselves every now and then and we're just going to keep lynching villagers who deviated from crowd prescriptions
There’s a difference between:
1) a wolf voting for another wolf and
2) a wolf chucking a wolf to his death when he has come under zero suspicion whatsoever and the town haven’t got a single clue to go on.
I guess my point is that even though Lofty hadn't come under any suspicion, it's possible we were nominating a couple wolves and sentiment was shifting against those people (and other wolves), and so it was quite likely that a wolf would be lynched regardless. For instance, let's say that Byron-Pepe-Lofty are all wolves. Once those nominations were made, one of them would have been lynched no matter what, since Baz is another jaded villager. Of course the wolves wouldn't know that those would be the eventual nominations for that round when Jimmy made his Lofty nom, but you could expect that, with a 50% probability, a wolf would be lynched. And Jimmy would have very likely been on the chopping block after that. To me it would be sensible, albeit risky, for a wolf to do a first nomination of another wolf to take charge of the situation and prevent the dominos from falling in the next round.
I'm not saying with any certainty that Byron and Pepe are definitely wolves, but treating this is a batshit conspiracy theory is misguided
Voting patterns are hardly going to be conclusive, probably at any point, but I think there is a fairly compelling case for Browning not being a wolf, and if you believe that (and also know Manc was a villager) then I also think there's a decent chance a wolf or two chucked in an early vote for one of those when they were up for the vote. It doesn't narrow the field much, but it does a bit.
'the wolves are going to win if...' sounds a bit desperate to me. All they've managed to do so far is kill mainly quiet villagers and one doctor. They're not doing great at all at this point.
I find the game a bit trickier not knowing how many players are in each role. Do we usually know this?
Reminder
Nominations close at 1pm.
Nominations closed
Spikey - nominated by Jimmy, seconded by Igor.
Jimmy - nominated by Spikey, seconded by Mugbull.
Vercetti - nominated by Adramelch, seconded by Niko.
Mugbull - nominated by Browning, seconded by Spoonsky.
Nominated but not seconded:
Browning - nominated by Thommo.
Byron - nominated by Pepe.
Pepe - nominated by Byron.
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