Well you can't say he's not defending himself
Well you can't say he's not defending himself
Fuck me, I think that I rather vote Lofty over Byron, but I don't want to instigate a double lynch at this point. Byron is probably a good target at this point, mind.
Baz still seems to be getting away too easily with this.
I have to say though that I'm also coming around to the idea of a double lynching, at least in concept if not this round. The single most important thing that can happen for the villagers is finding a wolf - after that, enough research on previous posts and voting patterns should give us some definite suspects. But until then we're basically groping in the dark. So I don't think increasing the odds of finding a wolf is such a bad thing even if it's at the risk of another villager.
You dont think Baz is another Manc? To me that seems obviousOriginally Posted by Pepe
Most likely, yes. But if he turned out to be a wolf (unlikely), at least he would give us a thread to follow. With Lofty and Byron, no matter what role they have, it feels like we will be back to square one. Plus, at least they are defending themselves while Baz has seemingly checked out.
Just looking at the choice between Byron and Lofty, it's a bit opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of voting (in some regards). Lofty has tended to get his votes in early - 5th, 4th and, admittedly, 13th in the last round. He has voted for P_3 (3rd vote), AD (1st vote) and Browning (5th vote). Only one of those has died and been shown to be a villager. Byron, on the other hand, plays his hand later - 21st and a completely dead vote for Don in R1, 23rd and an 8th vote for AD in R2 and 17th and a 4th vote for Pepe in R3 (R3 only had 19 votes whereas R2 had 30 with all the switching about). Again, 1 dead villager, but no one he has voted for has been lynched - although it looked like AD would be when he voted in R2. I'm not sure either pattern is more suspicious in isolation. Maybe Lofty? I dunno.
Aye but double lynching and taking out two villagers wouldn't exactly be ideal. We don't have much to go on though, obviously. Feels a bit unnecessarily aggressive to me, but we might have to resort to it eventually.
I would say in principle that voting later is more suspicious, as it's generally become more clear what's going to happen and therefore easier to choose a strategic head-covering vote.
Of course it's not ideal, but neither is muddling along lynching villager after villager without getting an inch closer to any real idea of what's going on. I'll say it again, the only thing that will change this game is getting a wolf.
Voting later probably is more suspicious, but there are various reasons why this could be the case, and being able to change your vote throws a spanner in the works of the theory to begin with.
Only if it is non-decisive. Voting late risks having to be decisive. You could say Byron obviated that in R1 by going for Don, but the vote in R2 was to kill AD at the time. I suppose, were Byron to be proven a wolf it would make AD less likely to be one. R3 again was a bit of a dead one as Pepe wasn't really in the race.
There's also the issue of not voting at all *ahem*.
Exactly, you could argue voting later is wolfish because it allows them to see how the day's votes have gone first, but you could just as easily make a case that it would make sense for wolves to get their votes in early to avoid suspicion.
Voting patterns aren't perfect, but I'd say that tracking the who rather than the when is going to be more useful.
Speaking of which, anyone got a decent spreadsheet?
I said i was going to make one to compete with Taz's but ive realized theres no way i have the energy for it
I started working from the one Baz posted up but it seemed to have a few errors in it.
I do have one but it's a work in progress and I'm not completely convinced of its accuracy at the moment.
I don't think there's much to be read into the voting. Byron being a wolf would go some way to convincing me AD isn't one. And maybe the same for Lofty and Browning, although to a lesser extent. Lofty's defence of himself is swaying me at the moment.
Current standings:
Byron - 6
Baz - 3
Pepe - 2
Lofty - 4
4 left to vote
An hour and a half left.
Who hasn’t voted yet? Be interesting to see if there are any late swings here.
Well, I'm guessing Bruh is one of them.
At best he makes one throwaway comment about chucking Bruh into a lynching as well (probably not the worst idea) and a much stronger post against the concept.
Fake news.
Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty
The voting patterns are hardly a slam dunk, but I'd say his look a little bit more dubious.
Bruh, niko and Baz left to vote I believe?
Is Bruh still with us?
Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
The problem is that this leaves me in a quandary. If I go impassioned then it looks a little 'doth protest too much'
Have I been palying badly? Yeah. But lets not forget that my only defence of a multiple lynch was when the other option was Bruh. Hardly the sharpest tool in the shed.
Indeed, may I draw your attention to;
Indeed, there's something of a pattern here. Lofty comes in with a defence that amounts to 'Byron advocated a mutli lynch once, kill him!' Indeed, he seems to be multi-quoting me in the hope that by data-dumping, people go along with him rather than actually looking at the posts.
Then, in the space on an hour, two people vote me, to take me above Lofty. If that doesn't stink of co-ordination then I don't know what does.
I'm not saying that all three are wolves, but I'm coming round to the idea of Lofty and Spoon being wolves, with Pepe strung along for the ride (and probably looking at the opportunity to off me for nominating him)
If I'm a non-wolf, you know your next targets. Obviously I'd love to stay alive, but it may be too little, too late for me.
Vote change from Pepe to
Lofty
The man has convinced me.
My man
Byron - 7
Lofty - 5
Baz - 3
Pepe - 1
Still to vote - 3
Should I.
I'm tempted.
If you do, I do.
*Insert image of Trump saying 'I love Hispanics'!*Should I.
This could be Byron's Istanbul.
We could always go for the double...
The tension...
Time left? I am going for lunch now, so I leave it in hands of my competent villagers.
The only pattern is Byron jumps in late to vote, often in dead rubbers. The most decisive thing he has done in over a thousand posts in this thread is try to stitch me up. That stinks far more than people voting for him.
I change my vote from Byron to
Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty
Now I see Byron and Lofty as equally likely or unlikely; and I've given my reasoning for a double lynch above. If anyone disagrees with me, there's still three votes who can tip the scales, so don't accuse me of trying to pull off a double at the very last second.
I think Lofty is more suspicious, marginally.
Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty
Oof.
Who's left to vote?
As the most decisive thing you've done is isolate one post as evidence of me wanting multiple lynches.
Die wolf scum.
Late tension
Gutting if someone doesn’t make the double lynch happen
Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty
I'm a twit
So that's 7-7 now yeah?
Not good.
Ffs baz
What the fuck Baz? Mass change to get him lynched, anyone?
Talk about sticking your head above the fucking parapet.
Could it be engineered?
I will try to switch to avoid a double, although I can't guarantee it won't end up in a complete clusterfuck if other people have the same idea.
Vote change from Byron to:
Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty
Both to avoid a double and because Baz has contributed nothing but confusion to the game so far.
Byron - 6
Lofty - 7
Baz - 4
Pepe - 1
If I'm not mistaken.
Last edited by Adramelch; 03-05-2020 at 06:52 PM.
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