Not yet, but if we're hitting around 20 deaths a day tomorrow and Tuesday and then double that Wednesday I'd say there's a serious chance we are, which will almost definitely be the case if we then hit triple figures in a day in a week or so.Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
I certainly can't see how isolating over 70s "within weeks" is soon enough.
One of our students suspected of being infected.
There were 5 cases at Oxford Uni, about a week ago, so that'll be the entire student population of the city that has it.
They started a vaccination program, but then I think the virus mutated, so they gave up.
We are actually in the middle of another Bird Flu outbreak, and have culled ~100k chickens this year.
Why is that a good thing?One of our students suspected of being infected.
It's not.
I think there are a number of factors that make their situation worse/different.
They obviously got a much bigger exposure to it early doors whilst everyone was just lolling at China and that has sort of ambushed them. They've had it in a particularly concentrated area, whereas I don't believe the UK has. They also, like most Mediterraneans, live quite differently to us. Not just in the difference between their more gregarious culture and our stand-off-ishness, but in the types of housing they live in (much more tightly packed high-rise) with much more family connectivity/inter-generational living. They also have an older population and I'm going to hazard a guess that more of them smoke. Now, perhaps these are all just lazy stereotypes and are not at all reflective of reality, but I think at the very least if you can see a train crash coming 4 weeks out you should be able to better prepare yourself to deal with it - they have simply not had the time to allocate resources adequately.
Maybe 4 weeks is a bit much though. They were experiencing deaths at the rate we are seeing them about 2 weeks ago. Just got to keep things under the line though.
I reckon we're going to lockdown in some sort of way here (Guernsey) quite soon. Perhaps it'll be stopping people coming or going. I think there's a strong desire to keep it away if at all possible. The wife's going mental and is desperate to get out (back to the UK) if they shut the schools here.
Last edited by niko_cee; 15-03-2020 at 07:44 PM.
I've met Students and I've met Americans. It probably is.
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/stat...18398168416256
This is our biggest challenge. C2DE are simply not bothered by this and they need to be. They can't blame politicians or doctors or anyone else if they are just carrying on like mongs.
Well, yes, but if enough die I might be out of a job.
Yes it certainly is curious wording, given the daily figures. I mean surely telling them to do it now also reduces the amount destined to tie up ICU beds later?
It's because they're wedded to the idea that they won't be able to make it stick for long enough. We're talking 4 months, that's not an insignificant period of time to be indoors for presumably 10+ million people. David Blaine would wince.
Fair points, the concentration factor and societal aspects were omitted from my logic above, which I agree will have an impact. On lolling it off though, that's exactly what we'd been doing until Thursday.
What would kill more of them though? Not going now or the ones dying from not staying in long enough?
No idea, but the government clearly think B.
The government's numbers of current suspected cases (between 5,000 and 10,000) on Thursday was also either a lie or just flat out wrong. If 34 are dead from it now and it takes 2/3 weeks to kill you, three and a half thousand people had it two weeks ago, 10 days before the press conference.
See the bullshit detector is strongly drawn towards A.
Isn't this like the perfect time for large parts of the population to take online courses in basic programming and shit? Not sure what coding skills are in demand, but if governments gave a low financial incentive for retail people who have fuck all to do anyway to complete some course certificates maybe we could actually come out of this with a more skilled workforce?
Yeah, I meant everyone, not just the Italians. I think we have been more vigilant about it in the early phase than they or many other countries were (not through anything other than blind luck) and/or have been lucky not to have had that early spike in infections.
But we don't know that we haven't had that spike, it's surely too early to tell and with testing outside of hospitals seemingly abandoned we won't know either.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/sta...757345795?s=19
Team Panic scores a 40 yarder.
What I will say for Donny Rotten is that while he may have a brain so small that covid couldn't get into it with a skeleton key, he is at least addressing the nation with an 'update' daily. We haven't heard anything from on high for more than 72 hours now apart from sending Matt Hancock into the fray on Andrew Marr, and whilst Matt Hancock may for all I know be extremely competent, he has the manner of a background fop from Four Weddings and a Funeral.
I'm certain all these government numbers are completely bullshit. One of my wife's friends is a nurse, she got sent home from her shift with a cough/feeling rough on friday completely untested and told to self isolate.
Seems ridiculous that we arent even testing nurses in a hospital were someone has already tested positive.
He has a hard on for privatising hospitals but his Circle venture fucked up their test case so I'll lean towards incompetent.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/trhX9/20/
COVID-19 Mutual Aid group mapper.
I was going to knock together what our test / confirmed case rate was but I can't really knock a daily rate together when our testing takes a couple of days. It's really hard to get a full picture for this. When it comes to confirmed cases, we've got barely a peep in the North East. What good is herd immunity if the official picture says Northumberland to Teesside has a dozen people infected?
I mean there's only so much I can do and any advice probably has to come with some disclaimers to protect myself, but yeah of course if people genuinely need help then I'll do my best.
Top man.
Our plan looks more and more batshit by the day.
Good to see the antidote to those feel good videos of Italians singing on their balconies-
https://twitter.com/_JellyRoger_/sta...32163985448960
Measuring testing is pointless as we're seemingly not bothering with it.
Most of our cases seem to be in London, which is hardly surprising. Only 15 confirmed in Surrey which is next to London. This is a confined space thing.
This is cool/interesting and has nice diagrams of social distancing affects the spread.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ona-simulator/
If it's anything like the transfer thread anything Randrew says will just get a load of 'You said I definitely had it!' gloating.
'I hear what you're saying' made me lol out loud.
Gary Neville meets Barack Obama is something I'd pay to watch.
Got it from two horses mouths after so many messages floating around. Our lockdown is being announced 11am tomorrow for midnight tomorrow. Limited opening times for shops, army/Gardaí controlling entry. Restaurant ban will be announced to go along with pubs. Work can still go ahead and be reviewed later in the week.
If we're not locking down we could send some troops over to help.
It’s about time ours did something.
Dressed distinctively in a mix of leftover Afghanistan/Iraq clobber and surplus police uniforms.
What’s the story with self isolating? My missus has a temperature of 41c and a dry throat but no problems with breathing, just coughing, and woke up in a pool of her own sweat after being sent home from work. She’s at Glasgow Uni which has a few cases and works in a restaurant as well as being abroad with me two weeks ago. My mate who is a manager says I can’t come into work as anyone with a cough, fever or showing signs of any symptoms has to stay away. I had all the symptoms other than a fever the last few weeks so just presumed I passed the man flu onto her but she’s got unlucky with a fever as well.
She needs to self-isolate at the very least in line with the advice. Don’t think you do yourself unless you have a fever or a cough.
We got back from Budapest two weeks ago tomorrow. I think they’re not too bad but then any fucker could have been in Edinburgh airport
Our guidelines is to isolate if you have the fever and hacking cough. I'm lucky this time off landed when it did. I'd be sticking with the old guidelines because the symptoms are so varied from person to person. They also cut the time down from two weeks to just the one. So you're contagious when you come back in.
Herd up.
Last edited by Shindig; 15-03-2020 at 10:11 PM.
I don’t care if I’m off as I get 6 months full pay. I’ll phone tomorrow and see what they say. I’ve hardly been in recently because of the holiday and then Cheltenham. What a wonder few weeks this could be
This isn't herding up.
Just had a terrifying conversation with my mate who's meant to be getting married on 4 April. He's 'keeping positive', says social media has ramped up needless panic and thinking it's still going ahead. I really didn't know how to tell him. You can't say 'Actually, mate...' so I just sort of conveyed some general pessimism about the whole thing. I am lucky that my personality was basically designed for this exact scenario. He and all the Tiggers of the world are going to get fucked by this.
I mean, he can still do it but you need to group the wedding party so that everyone is three feet away from each other at all times. And the ceremony is 10 minutes long. Best wedding ever. And you don't kiss or touch.
Speaking as a bonafide behavioural mister man, he's more than likely deluding himself over the money he's laid out than being a general whopper.
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