What I don't understand is that I thought China had started back up to some degree, manufacturing etc. and has been for some time. If so, why aren't we seeing a spike in cases again? Instead, they're posting single digits daily now, which presumably is just from the stragglers.
They’re putting Garda decals on a load of cars they’ve got from the hire companies up at the docks all weekend.
It's because they are keeping an insane level of control on it and a very, very clear process for dealing with cases to a degree that I'm not sure a less totalitarian place could:Originally Posted by Yevrah
Last edited by Bernanke; 15-03-2020 at 02:47 PM.
They've not been 'back-to-normal' for all that long either.
Test and trace is obviously the only way to manage it at the moment. Which is why we're telling our old people to isolate..
.. In a few weeks.
And not testing either...
I know we're not experts, we're yevrah, but the whole approach smells awful. Something is fundamentally wrong with what we're trying to do in the UK.
Laying in longlife munchies is the real challenge.
Austria is going into almost full lockdown. People can only be on the street for 1. work that can't be postponed (interpretations of that are going to vary massively, I expect) , 2. Urgent shopping i.e. Foodstuffs and medicine 3. To help others.
Police will enforce this from tomorrow.
Let's hope the internet providers don't fuck this up or we'll riot.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...virus-covid-19
I'm sure Lewis will say this is just The Guardian attacking the tories so here:
When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.
I'm assuming he fits everyone's criteria of an expert and a proper scientist and he speaks perfect sense.
This was probably the most worrying part for me:
About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future.
He highlights all the gaping holes in the plan perfectly.
Another 95 dead in Spain.
And tomorrow is going to be very interesting at work. I think a weekend of the entire world shutting down and us not will see a lot of people voluntarily self isolating with no symptoms. I can't say I blame them.
I haven't seen this before, so I fired up Excel and we got a '% Deaths per Reported Cases'...
That fatality range is spread....
That’s what worries me, too. This is a SARS thing, not a flu thing. There was no SARS second wave.
The Germans are closing borders. The Dutch have just shut all schools and universities and their PM is doing a national address tomorrow evening. This are hardly countries known for their lack of competence.
Our government needs to share the modelling and talk to us properly.
I've decided to go in as I have no symptoms today and probably imagined the ones I 'had' before.
It might be the only day before everything shuts down. To be honest, I'm ok up here on my own. My whole life has effectively been spent preparing for this scenario. Extroverts and people who get restless I fear a bit for.
No, the testing and reporting range is spread. Nobody has real numbers from anywhere.I haven't seen this before, so I fired up Excel and we got a '% Deaths per Reported Cases'...
That fatality range is spread....
Meanwhile, Switzerland have shot up massively in the 'Cases/1m Pop' table, whilst Italy continue to lead by someway. The Liverpool of the Corona world, if you will.
I read something very interesting on twitter about how Italy has been fucked by the high levels of intergenerational transmission, as they have the highest rates of multiple generations living together in the world. By this measure, if it is indeed relevant, the UK is better protected (as is France).I haven't seen this before, so I fired up Excel and we got a '% Deaths per Reported Cases'...
That fatality range is spread....
We’ve had 232 new cases here. That’s down a fair bit 35 deaths now.
EDIT: turns out we tested half as many people in the past 24 hours compared to the previous period.
Last edited by Lee; 15-03-2020 at 03:48 PM.
No shit. That why I used the word 'reported' on both columns.
Sorry, I thought Yev had posted it
Something tells me I'll not be coming back to work in a fortnight. Even if this country's not on lockdown, we're certainly getting penned in.
That makes sense. I would say the same applies to China, Vietnam and some other SEA, too. We got 34yr old women being told to come home by 9pm by their dad over here :/
There must be a reason for the Spain v Germany gap.... 3.75% v 0.2%
The cornerstone of the whole thing seems to be that they don't think they will physically be able to lock the population down for as long as will be needed, so are trying to delay the start as long as they can.
No other nation seems concerned by this but we seem desperate to hinge the whole policy on it.
Testing people unless they're ill in hospital isn't part of the strategy anymore though, is it? Our death rate is going to be obscene. The government need to be explaining that to people too.
The only difference in figures is economics. They’re all fudged.
The need to be different from the rest of the EU is the policy.
Looks as though Germany has a shitload of ICU capacity, so everybody who has needed that level of treatment so far is getting it. The anecdotal stuff from ICU consultants is that they can get people better if they have space, people and kit.
EDIT: Also looks as though Germany is only counting is if it’s the direct cause of death, not if something else killed you and you just happened to have Covid.
Last edited by Lee; 15-03-2020 at 03:53 PM.
It's bonkers. People are increasingly worried and thousands have died, everywhere has closed/is closing, so if you told people to stay at home they would. That and the second wave are two assumptions that are so huge and are seemingly based on nothing. Have they actually confused this with a Flu pandemic? Did they test people getting bored and running around the streets licking everything on mice?
No problem here with staying inside for a few weeks, that's essentially what I'd be doing if I had that time off in normal circumstances so it's really not that much of an imposition.
If I can't go out for walks or whatever I might have to develop some kind of indoor exercise regime. Maybe now is the time for fasting and tantric yoga.
Thank God I now have a balcony/terrace, so fresh air will be possible.
I genuinely don't think people would stay at home for long. The level of worry in the real world doesn't seem to be anywhere near the level on TTH - a woman in work jetted off to Poland for a holiday this week because it was so bloody cheap, the pubs and bars were still pretty busy last night judging from social media, and whenever I've popped out to the shops, there are dozens of old gits wandering around without a care in the world.
With that in mind, I can completely understand the logic behind holding back on telling the population to stay at home.
I assume she's back in the UK, if not she's going to have to wait a number of weeks.
We'll just have to see what happens in Italy etc once the lockdowns have been in place for a while.
I'll find out tomorrow and report back.
We already know that in some of the first towns locked down they’re reduced the rate of infection, in at least one case to zero. The question is, what happens when they’re all let out again.
I shall be off to work tomorrow and I'm yet to encounter anyone aside from people on here who have expressed more than passing concern. I guess we're about to find out who's right.
The actual mortality rate will be well below 1%. This shit is rife and has been for some time. They're only finding out about the extreme cases.
Consensus is it's 1% or less until you get into a situation where there aren't enough ventilators, and that's when it gets higher.
The only thing we're really waiting for with the numbers is if or when Italy starts to improve.
Also if Elon Musk is so good at building diving tubes in a day, he really needs to get his shit together with mass-manufacturing ventilators.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 15-03-2020 at 04:23 PM.
Lee back?
According to Le Figaro, Monsieur le Président is 'silently supporting' the UK approach. Good old France, always there for you in a crisis.
And the Yellow Vests are back out. Immunité collective
Yeah, the general public don’t really have a care in the world. TTH and Piers Morgan are the only folks I can see worrying or at least getting into somewhat of a panic.
Pubs were busier yesterday than the norm if anything
I'm not staying packed in for the fortnight, to be honest. Shopping gets me out for half an hour and I can walk to ... like, some proper northern pitholes. Anything to make it feel less like unemployment.
The general public are wrong and we are right.
What’s the opposite of Team Panic? Team Get A Grip? I’m happy to captain.
I'm a twit
That's what the paediatric respiratory consultants have advised us all to do (and have done for themselves and their own families). If you aren't in a group who'd usually be offered it, you'll probably have to pay for it yourself.
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