Coronavirus Death Thread

[Lofty]

I keep hearing this stuff, but how much difference do you think it actually makes?

I think if we screened all arrivals at airports for fever (like they do at hospitals now, I was screened for an outpatient appointment last week) and made anyone failing to pass screening sign an agreement to self isolate for 14 days or face criminal proceedings as per the Isle of Man reportedly did to a guy flouting it would definitely have reduced spread.

Another thing the government fluffed was sport: no doubt whatsoever they were unwilling to cancel Cheltenham (as Barry Glendenning noted on Football Weekly, if it was foot and mouth they would have cancelled it immediately). Also remember the government didn't stop football, football stopped football when the likes of Arteta etc tested positive. A lot of the measures brought in were only brought in after companies and governing bodies had been forced to make decisions.

So I accept that it is a bad hand for any government to get and some stuff is inevitable and criticism will happen regardless but there are things that everyone here was scratching their heads about at the time.

[Spikey M]

But our plan needs spread to take place. Just at a rate that doesn't cripple the NHS and that's what's determining what we stop and what we don't. The odd muppet turning up with a dose of Covid on one of the massively reduced flights still arriving probably doesn't even register on the scale. It's gold for the press, because it sounds bad, but in reality...

[Waffdon]

These conferences are the most other pathetic and pointless things ever

[Lofty]

Our 'plan' that will see us surpass Italy and Spain's death toll this week?

[Lewis]

A pub in Southsea is doing two pound pints if you bring your own 'container' and ring the back doorbell. I feel like people round here should be getting all over that while it lasts.

[Spikey M]

Our 'plan' that will see us surpass Italy and Spain's death toll this week?

That's the one.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The only thing that has been noticeably different from us to anyone else was the week when everyone else was locking down and we were going on about herd immunity, but it still doesn't make sense to blame politicians for that, as they know fuck all about immunology and will have been taking advice from scientists who did. But blaming scientists is also stupid, because this is brand new and there isn't a consensus on it even now, let alone a month ago.

I just don't like blame culture in general, I don't think. It's not helpful. What is helpful is taking the best decision you believe is available to you today and tomorrow in the situation you are NOW in.

[Giggles]

The only thing that has been noticeably different from us to anyone else was the week when everyone else was locking down and we were going on about herd immunity, but it still doesn't make sense to blame politicians for that, as they know fuck all about immunology and will have been taking advice from scientists who did. But blaming scientists is also stupid, because this is brand new and there isn't a consensus on it even now, let alone a month ago.

I just don't like blame culture in general, I don't think. It's not helpful. What is helpful is taking the best decision you believe is available to you today and tomorrow in the situation you are NOW in.

It’s not brand new. Something something 0-0-10 4-4-2.

[Lewis]

When we're riding that second wave to Donsville as Spain loses half its remaining population we'll talk.

[Shindig]

We probably thought we were containing it well until a month ago. When we locked it down, we were at 54 deaths a day and they would've been fed information about bed and ward capacity. There was all this speculation at the time that we wouldn't be like Italy because our familial structures are different. Turns out that means very little and the deaths rose in a similar pattern.

[Lee]

Our daily deaths have been nowhere near Italy or Spain. The reporting is to cock.

[Yevrah]

Our daily deaths have been nowhere near Italy or Spain. The reporting is to cock.

It'll be the same all over the shop.

[Adramelch]

Our daily deaths have been nowhere near Italy or Spain. The reporting is to cock.

You're not reporting nursing home deaths either though are you?

[Lee]

It'll be the same all over the shop.

Not sure. Our health system hasn’t been overwhelmed anywhere in the way that Lombardy and Madrid were.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I also don't see how we're going to overtake Italy 'this week', as we're 9-10,000 behind them and so would have to register 1,500+ more than they do every day (we haven't even done that many in one day).

[Lee]

You're not reporting nursing home deaths either though are you?

We are but in different periods. And we are admitting patients to hospital from care homes because we’ve had capacity so the difference shouldn’t be too big unlike, say, France.

Italy and Spain weren’t routinely reporting care home deaths either though.

We’ll have a lot of death because we are a high population, high density country. We’ve managed it okay though.

[Lee]

I also don't see how we're going to overtake Italy 'this week', as we're 9-10,000 behind them and so would have to register 1,500+ more than they do every day (we haven't even done that many in one day).

Our biggest single day figure is just higher than 700 and this ought to be the peak week.

[Adramelch]

We are but in different periods. And we are admitting patients to hospital from care homes because we’ve had capacity so the difference shouldn’t be too big unlike, say, France.

Italy and Spain weren’t routinely reporting care home deaths either though.

We’ll have a lot of death because we are a high population, high density country. We’ve managed it okay though.

The reports I've seen all talk about hospital deaths. I do agree you won't get numbers like France cause the health system here was hit really hard (everything was basically at capacity from what I can gather), but I wouldn't be surprised if you get a couple thousand more.

[Yevrah]

Not sure. Our health system hasn’t been overwhelmed anywhere in the way that Lombardy and Madrid were.

Which presumably would have led to even less accurate reporting than we're experiencing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I thought the PM's speech was really good, for what it's worth. Despite the voice being a bit ravaged, I haven't heard him sound that coherent in years.

[Spikey M]

The reports I've seen all talk about hospital deaths. I do agree you won't get numbers like France cause the health system here was hit really hard (everything was basically at capacity from what I can gather), but I wouldn't be surprised if you get a couple thousand more.

Unless there's a sudden drop we'll get far more than a couple of thousand more.

[Lee]

Which presumably would have led to even less accurate reporting than we're experiencing.

We don’t know as all countries will report differentLy. The way we report at the moment is only good for the running total, though. Daily deaths of 800/900 have been bollocks though. It hasn’t happened and if we are past/at the peak it may not happen at all.

[Giggles]

Someone needs to tell Yev it’s not a competition.

[7om]

What does your bell curve look like with the real numbers, Lee?

[Adramelch]

Unless there's a sudden drop we'll get far more than a couple of thousand more.

No, I meant an additional couple thousand from nursing homes that haven't been reported yet.

[Lee]

What does your bell curve look like with the real numbers, Lee?

It isn’t mine - it’s the actual numbers from the NHS by day. There is a lag because of the way deaths are reported. So of today’s 700-odd only 120 were actually in the last 24 hours. The rest are for previous days.

At the moment it looks possible that April 8th was the peak. But reporting over the Easter weekend will be shit so we probably won’t know until the end of the coming week. Numbers will plateau rather than just drop off so the actual peak day is up for grabs. It looks as though we are just about there though.

[7om]

It isn’t mine - it’s the actual numbers from the NHS by day. There is a lag because of the way deaths are reported. So of today’s 700-odd only 120 were actually in the last 24 hours. The rest are for previous days.

At the moment it looks possible that April 8th was the peak. But reporting over the Easter weekend will be shit so we probably won’t know until the end of the coming week. Numbers will plateau rather than just drop off so the actual peak day is up for grabs. It looks as though we are just about there though.

That's what I mean. What does the daily deaths graph look like with the real numbers? And also, why is there a set of numbers that the NHS knows and another set that are released to the public?

[Lee]

That's what I mean. What does the daily deaths graph look like with the real numbers? And also, why is there a set of numbers that the NHS knows and another set that are released to the public?

There’s no graph that I’ve seen. I mean there obviously will be but I’ve not put the numbers in Excel and had a look.

The NHS numbers are publicly available online and an update is tweeted daily reporting how many of the deaths reported are for the past 24 hours and for the dates before.

There are two problems. Lower numbers are less newsworthy than higher numbers. And it takes a few days for the past 24 hours numbers to be complete, which is shit for 24 hour news.

[Mazuuurk]

I thought the PM's speech was really good, for what it's worth. Despite the voice being a bit ravaged, I haven't heard him sound that coherent in years.

Quite funny how he was supposedly saved by nurses from Portugal and New Zeeland

[Bam]

Someone needs to tell Yev it’s not a competition.

Totally agree, he will try and find a negative out of any post. Might be time to put the spread sheet down, Yev.

[Shindig]

Quite funny how he was supposedly saved by nurses from Portugal and New Zeeland

Spoilers: Our NHS is an international effort.

[Mazuuurk]

Not for much longer, mate!

We'll take Luis here though, he's welcome here.

[Bam]

Not for much longer, mate!

We'll take Luis here though, he's welcome here.

What are you talking about???

[Spikey M]

What does your bell curve look like with the real numbers, Lee?

I don't think he's getting aroused by them?

[Andy]

The only thing that has been noticeably different from us to anyone else was the week when everyone else was locking down and we were going on about herd immunity, but it still doesn't make sense to blame politicians for that, as they know fuck all about immunology and will have been taking advice from scientists who did. But blaming scientists is also stupid, because this is brand new and there isn't a consensus on it even now, let alone a month ago.

I just don't like blame culture in general, I don't think. It's not helpful. What is helpful is taking the best decision you believe is available to you today and tomorrow in the situation you are NOW in.

How many other countries talked about herd immunity? It was just us right? That's what made me think it was a bad idea...

[Yevrah]

Totally agree, he will try and find a negative out of any post. Might be time to put the spread sheet down, Yev.

If we're not actually at 900 a day (which I fully accept we're not for the reasons detailed) then what's to say Spain and Italy ever where either. So if every country's reporting has lag, then for comparison purposes, it's fine to compare to countries to each other.

Appreciate this might be a difficult concept for you to grasp, but hopefully that helps.

[Shindig]

How many other countries talked about herd immunity? It was just us right? That's what made me think it was a bad idea...

The Netherlands are doing it. Which is why I can go to Amsterdam every morning from Newcastle Airport. They've closed schools and I assume they have some social distancing down somewhere.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm personally happy for the only measure of record to be what measures the government put in place as mitigation. Their experts know more than I do.

[phonics]

Didn’t you say like half a page up that you want REAL SUGGESTIONS from people?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I do if they're going to scream MURDER at the government.

[Mazuuurk]

What are you talking about???

Boris was Pro-brexit wasn't he. So we can take the portuguese nurses here, where they are welcome.

[Lewis]

You can have all of our thieving Romanians as well.

[Spikey M]

Boris was Pro-brexit wasn't he. So we can take the portuguese nurses here, where they are welcome.

Boris is pro-Boris. It was widely circulated, and possibly bullshit, that he had 2 articles written and ready to go in the Telegraph following the referendum. One for each outcome. Both contradicting each other.

[Lewis]

I bet his speech in case he died earlier would have been a belter. Settling all sorts of beef.

[Mazuuurk]

Just the nurses, cheers.

[Shindig]

I bet his speech in case he died earlier would have been a belter. Settling all sorts of beef.

"In three days time, Michael Gove will roll away the stone as I ascend to Heaven to see if I can sort out a trade deal."

[Jimmy Floyd]

I have seen quite a few 'He Has Risen!' tweets with Boris's head put onto religious imagery today, which are simultaneously weird and lol.

Fair fucks to him, for many of us he is the only person we 'know' whose suffering with the disease we have experienced in real time. All the screaming about PPE, do you think they're just sitting around going 'nah, fuck it, nurses don't need gloves'?

[Lofty]

From death's door to road to recovery tied nicely in with a major religious holiday, exquisite timing you have to hand it to him. When I had bog standard pnuemonia that I didnt go to hospital for I spent three days sleeping 95% of the time barely able to eat so kudos for him marathoning a load of films when ill enough to be in intensive care.

[randomlegend]

All the screaming about PPE, do you think they're just sitting around going 'nah, fuck it, nurses don't need gloves'?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-owing-to-cost

Pretty much, yes.

[Bam]

If we're not actually at 900 a day (which I fully accept we're not for the reasons detailed) then what's to say Spain and Italy ever where either. So if every country's reporting has lag, then for comparison purposes, it's fine to compare to countries to each other.

Appreciate this might be a difficult concept for you to grasp, but hopefully that helps.

You obversely don't like being called out on this. Carry on you queen.