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Thread: Coronavirus Death Thread

  1. #17051
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    The Scientists have been weirdly reluctant to shut our borders from day one, to the point where you have to wonder whether it was some weird political preference on their part.

  2. #17052
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    The Scientists have been weirdly reluctant to shut our borders from day one, to the point where you have to wonder whether it was some weird political preference on their part.
    Same problem in the US.

    You all know I'm a proper latte-sipping liberal lefty, but I was all for slamming closed the borders immediately. Pandemics are one situation that clearly justifies (requires!) border closures. Pandemic modelling is really clear on that point - any Actual Scientist arguing otherwise probably has a PhD in extrasolar biology or something, and doesn't know what they're on about. I'm legitimately curious who has been saying otherwise, because it can't have been the epidemiologists.

    The problem is obviously that the EU and US states are built around the idea of free movement, but the impetus was surely political rather than scientific.

  3. #17053
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The reason no European country shut the borders early is just sheer scale - we have 300 million air passengers a year and NZ have 40 million, most of whom are probably from Australia. It would have taken a proper one-off maverick of a PM to shut borders in February, against scientific advice, and not re-open them for... will it be two years? Who knows. In Aus and NZ it's a much easier decision as you're that much more removed from mass international transit.

    Maggie Thatcher might have done it if she was deep on the G&Ts that week, but even that I doubt.

    The bit Boris has done wrong over here is a) listen too much to the right wing of his party and too little to the population; b) always delay decision-making as long as possible (which he does in every arena, not just the pandemic).

  4. #17054
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    This was the first year since 2006 in which I haven't left Australia. It's been weird in that regard. It felt like a game of musical chairs, and in March 2020 the music stopped. Wherever you were, that's where you stayed.

    I have a friend in Sydney from Europe, and her mum was visiting at the time. Ended up staying in her apartment for six months.

  5. #17055
    Just Luca, but still a DJ Luca's Avatar
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    How have people reacted to the on and off lockdowns there, Ital? We have instituted a series of half-hearted measures on and off, and by the third change to THE RULES the public has just decided it doesn’t care anymore.

  6. #17056
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    The reason no European country shut the borders early is just sheer scale - we have 300 million air passengers a year and NZ have 40 million, most of whom are probably from Australia. It would have taken a proper one-off maverick of a PM to shut borders in February, against scientific advice, and not re-open them for... will it be two years? Who knows. In Aus and NZ it's a much easier decision as you're that much more removed from mass international transit.
    I agree, although there's a lot of air travel within that was shut off as well. Sydney-Melbourne was the second-busiest flight route in the world, and while we aren't quite an international hub, a lot of flights to Asia go through our east coast. Even we didn't shut everything down in February, though we were certainly preparing for it.

    I'm not saying it would have been easy - we're definitely playing on easy mode, and it was still challenging. But every delay in a pandemic is critical, especially early on, and there was a real resistance from a lot of governments to listen to epidemiologists giving the obvious advice until things were already spiraling.

    Once you know for sure it's going to be a pandemic, it's almost too late.

    The bit Boris has done wrong over here is a) listen too much to the right wing of his party and too little to the population; b) always delay decision-making as long as possible (which he does in every arena, not just the pandemic).
    I agree entirely, and I think it would have been a lot easier for all of you now if he hadn't done those two things. Still not great, obviously, because it's a global pandemic. But you could barely asked for a worse person to be at the helm.

  7. #17057
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca View Post
    How have people reacted to the on and off lockdowns there, Ital? We have instituted a series of half-hearted measures on and off, and by the third change to THE RULES the public has just decided it doesn’t care anymore.
    Mostly fine. There was some discontent with the Victorian lockdown as it dragged on, but mostly it held. There's always a few, but noncompliance is built into the mathematical models, and it's all within the predicted ranges.

    The Queensland lockdown seems to have worked. I'm required to follow it even though I was allowed to go back to Sydney during the lockdown, which is a nice touch.

    The penalties are pretty stiff here, and the police are enforcing them. Not wanting to be down $10,000 helps sway hearts and minds. Businesses are required to have electronic sign-ins in NSW with the government app, and the penalty there is steep enough that they're following it.

  8. #17058
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Why would I remove my mask outside if I hadn't washed and sanitised my hands first? That would be mong behaviour.
    Last edited by Giggles; 11-01-2021 at 05:32 AM.

  9. #17059
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    I get the government do, but do THE RULES NEED TO BE TOUGHER brigade understand that tightening them won't make a difference to the people who aren't following them in the first place? Which I'd imagine is an ever increasing number of people.

    It will if you do what should have been done from day one - hit them and hit them hard with penalties. Not following them shouldn’t be an option.

  10. #17060
    Just Luca, but still a DJ Luca's Avatar
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    Haven't they basically debunked the spread of COVID via fomites?

  11. #17061
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca View Post
    Haven't they basically debunked the spread of COVID via fomites?
    Depends where you look and what you want to hear. You’ll find ‘proof’ for absolutely anything you want on the internet these days.

  12. #17062
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    We don't have the manpower to enforce the rules for 65 million people, so the only option is to make them palatable enough that most people will follow them voluntarily (and most people do, I think).

  13. #17063
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    I really don't think they do. The 'bubble' rules are the problem. It's being used as Carte Blanche by most people I know with kids.

    It's better now than it was before Christmas because it's an actual "lockdown" but it's still going on.

  14. #17064
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The bubble rules are not the problem. People refusing to read what the bubble rules actually are is the problem.

    If they end up forcing me back into isolation and not being able to see my parents once a week I'll be as close to breaking the rules as I have been since the beginning (he says, posting from a completely empty office other than me).

  15. #17065
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    The bubbles rules are not the problem. People refusing to read what the bubble rules actually are is the problem.

    If this ends up forcing me back into isolation and not being able to see my parents once a week I'll be as close to breaking the rules as I have been since the beginning (he says, posting from a completely empty office other than me).
    People know what the rules are. People not giving a fuck about them is the actual problem.

  16. #17066
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Mixture of the two. I don't think a lot of people are capable of reading in full sentences or comprehending the nuance of a regulation beyond the word 'bubble'.

  17. #17067
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Mixture of the two. I don't think a lot of people are capable of reading in full sentences or comprehending the nuance of a regulation beyond the word 'bubble'.
    Give people any sort of an out at all and they'll use it as a free for all. Over here you can see one other household 'on compassionate grounds', so naturally "We'll be round to yours on Saturday night with a bottle of wine on compassionate grounds hahahhaha".

  18. #17068
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Mixture of the two. I don't think a lot of people are capable of reading in full sentences or comprehending the nuance of a regulation beyond the word 'bubble'.
    Exactly that. All context has disappeared, it's just become "childcare" as an excuse to see whoever they want.

    My sister In Law is currently in a 'single person bubble' with her monster in law (her mother in law is in 3 single person bubbles) and a 'childcare bubble' with her mum. She doesn't actually need the childcare, she works from home whilst her husband is home. There's no childcare going on.

    This is fairly representative of most people I know with kids and I get the temptation. Having bored kids at home, whilst working and not being able to do anything is a tough slog.

  19. #17069
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    I think being from / in Essex probably adds to the experience. The combination of being 'cheeky' and thick as pig shit makes this stuff inevitable.

  20. #17070
    I used to be funny.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Mixture of the two. I don't think a lot of people are capable of reading in full sentences or comprehending the nuance of a regulation beyond the word 'bubble'.
    The same people that get confused by a letter through their door and ring the PM, rather than the number on the letter.

  21. #17071
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spikey M View Post
    I think being from / in Essex probably adds to the experience. The combination of being 'cheeky' and thick as pig shit makes this stuff inevitable.
    I was going to say, things are probably a bit less raucous at this end of the M25.

  22. #17072
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    Another sweet week of doing what I want.

  23. #17073
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    +1 for the bubble shambles.

    Not saying the government shouldn't have a system, but as someone who knows the rules on it (as I'm legitimately in one with my sister's family) the amount of people I come across who're taking the piss with it is unreal.

    "They're one of my bubbles" or "We've formed a bubble (hang on, you both live with other people)".

    Bring childcare into it and allow exceptions for that (which you sort of have to for times when it is needed) and you've got no chance, as no parent wants to spend 24 hours a day for 10 months with their kids. Not a single one.
    Last edited by Yevrah; 11-01-2021 at 09:31 AM.

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    And not that the government haven't made mistakes (faaaar from it), but stuff like the above that makes me think this round is on 'us' rather than them and the frustration at the situation we're in should be directed at the people who think the rules don't apply to them rather than Kay and Ken, or whatever the fuck their names were.

  25. #17075
    I used to be funny.
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    Then you've got those who test positive and keep quiet because they don't fancy missing out on a fortnight of work.

  26. #17076
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    On a related note, an interesting fact is that in the warehouse that's attached to my company, there are 25 people who work there and 14 of them have acquired mask exemption cards, all of which appeared after a rule requiring them to wear masks was introduced in October.

  27. #17077
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    Probably can't hear themselves over them.

  28. #17078
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    People breaking the rules are bastards.

  29. #17079
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shindig View Post
    Then you've got those who test positive and keep quiet because they don't fancy missing out on a fortnight of work.
    Why would they bother getting tested in that case?

  30. #17080
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    The reason no European country shut the borders early is just sheer scale - we have 300 million air passengers a year and NZ have 40 million, most of whom are probably from Australia. It would have taken a proper one-off maverick of a PM to shut borders in February, against scientific advice, and not re-open them for... will it be two years? Who knows. In Aus and NZ it's a much easier decision as you're that much more removed from mass international transit.

    Maggie Thatcher might have done it if she was deep on the G&Ts that week, but even that I doubt.

    The bit Boris has done wrong over here is a) listen too much to the right wing of his party and too little to the population; b) always delay decision-making as long as possible (which he does in every arena, not just the pandemic).
    Nothing was ever going to happen in February, but there was nothing to stop them shutting borders in April. Priti Patel and Matt Hancock wanted to stop flights from the then hotspots in early March, but between the Treasury graph and the attempts to get expats home (fuck them) it never happened.

  31. #17081
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    We don't have the manpower to enforce the rules for 65 million people, so the only option is to make them palatable enough that most people will follow them voluntarily (and most people do, I think).
    We have a little less than half that, but to be honest, we're mostly doing it willingly.

    Maybe we're just a more subservient people, although I think peer pressure might have something to do with it. The main lockdowns were followed fairly impeccably.

  32. #17082
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ItalAussie View Post
    We have a little less than half that, but to be honest, we're mostly doing it willingly.

    Maybe we're just a more subservient people, although I think peer pressure might have something to do with it. The main lockdowns were followed fairly impeccably.
    We were doing it willingly during the first wave but the level of inconvenience we've been saddled with has now gone on for nearly 10 months, bar a brief relaxation. People have decided that enough is enough. It's only going to get worse too.

  33. #17083
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    You probably have more sense of civic togetherness than we do, especially as each city/metro area/state has its own certain identity about what it is. We are a very crowded island some of which is quite nice and some of which is a post-industrial hellhole, and all of which has had its social institutions eroded over the last 40 years to the point where it's basically every man for himself.

    And like Spikey says, there was compliance the first time round but when it comes back two and three and four times, all for weeks and months at a time, people just get sick of it.

  34. #17084
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    Celtic.

  35. #17085
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    And like Spikey says, there was compliance the first time round but when it comes back two and three and four times, all for weeks and months at a time, people just get sick of it.
    I also think it helped that our first big lockdown - combined with the border restrictions and early start - basically controlled and eliminated the major threat (touch wood). It helped that it was strict, and there were very few loopholes. I really think having seventeen thousand different loopholes may have seemed like an important quality-of-life measure, but it just helped the disease spread.

    After that there have been occasional flare-ups, but I think people see it as a solveable problem rather than fighting the tide like it is there. People are more motivated when they don't feel something is hopeless. It feels like a short but important inconvenience.

  36. #17086
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ItalAussie View Post
    I also think it helped that our first big lockdown - combined with the border restrictions and early start - basically controlled and eliminated the major threat (touch wood). It helped that it was strict, and there were very few loopholes. I really think having seventeen thousand different loopholes may have seemed like an important quality-of-life measure, but it just helped the disease spread.

    After that there have been occasional flare-ups, but I think people see it as a solveable problem rather than fighting the tide like it is there. People are more motivated when they don't feel something is hopeless. It feels like a short but important inconvenience.
    Your biggest win was that it happened in the summer time. It turned up over here in January, when every gathering is indoors.

  37. #17087
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spikey M View Post
    Your biggest win was that it happened in the summer time. It turned up over here in January, when every gathering is indoors.
    That's a good point, which I did forget. I think we're generally more outdoorsy as well. I took up kayaking.

    The one thing that did piss people off was that they took a really long time to let the gyms reopen.

  38. #17088
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    "i CaN tEaCh OnLiNe JuSt As EfFeCtIvElY!"

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/s...uggle-23297807

  39. #17089
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ItalAussie View Post
    there's probably also something to be said for not being managed by willfully ignorant circus clowns.
    Hasn't done Australia much harm.

    Madagascar had is sussed years ago. Anyone who's done that, or got as close as possible, have staved this thing off, but most countries simply didn't have the option to even think about doing that in the first place.

    Border closures and strict (draconian) enforcement of isolation rules were beyond the wit and capability of most jurisdictions from the outset.

  40. #17090
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Being a covid stats obsessive (it keeps me sane knowing facts), I found it very curious that today Matt Hancock chose for the first time not to mention the number of daily deaths (just over 500) but to mention the 7 day average (just over 900) instead. They obviously want that number high, in presentational terms, which seems arse about face but what do I know.

  41. #17091
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    They need people scared if they've any chance of getting them to do as they're told.

  42. #17092
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Anyone using daily figures for comparison between consecutive days needs COVID-20. BBC News are the biggest culprits I know of. Either use 7-day moving averages or Guardian's comparison to same day last week. Idiots.

  43. #17093
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    What's the xD today? (Expected deaths)

  44. #17094
    Senior Member randomlegend's Avatar
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    There are hospitals which have had to lower target saturations (the level of oxygen in a patient's blood) to 88% for all patients because they are at critical oxygen supply. It would usually be >95%.

    Keep telling us how we could be overwhelmed soon Boris. Overwhelmed was last week.

  45. #17095
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kikó View Post
    What's the xD today? (Expected deaths)
    High for a couple of weeks and then I think hopefully it's going to start going the other way, based on the direction of the current case data.

    I've no idea when you'd start seeing any vaccine effect on deaths. Not yet, but also can't be too long away.

  46. #17096
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Parents are having the Pfizer on Friday. Breaking the dirty ethnic stereotype at every turn, what heroes.

  47. #17097
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by randomlegend View Post
    There are hospitals which have had to lower target saturations (the level of oxygen in a patient's blood) to 88% for all patients because they are at critical oxygen supply. It would usually be >95%.

    Keep telling us how we could be overwhelmed soon Boris. Overwhelmed was last week.
    Southend Hospital announced they were running out earlier. Not what you want to hear if you have a loved one in Hospital right now.

  48. #17098
    Senior Member randomlegend's Avatar
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    Our ITU are 30 nurses short of safe staffing levels tonight.

  49. #17099
    Romulus Augustulus ItalAussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    Hasn't done Australia much harm.
    Never let it be said that I'm a defender of our Liberal governments, but the UK lot are in a different league.

    That said, the best thing our lot did was realise that it needed to be coordinated at state level, rather than federally. They closed the border, put up a bunch of money to make sure that people could keep their jobs, then let the states handle the important decisions.

    The UK doesn't really have a layer of government between local councils and national, does it?

  50. #17100
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Scotland/Wales/NI have national assemblies but England has nothing. Some cities have mayors but they don't have many powers.

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