I think handballs like that one for the first penalty should be red cards. I don't see how intent should play into any of this if the effect is exactly the same as, for instance, the deliberate Suarez shitshow in 2010. You'll still send someone off for accidentally elbowing someone in the face and breaking their jaw, you know. Or for a fair attempt at a tackle that misses the ball and breaks Aaron Ramsey's leg.