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Thread: The Middle East and co (*sponsored by Mel Gibson*)

  1. #51
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    Again, as at least the Saint can see, you add nothing.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    It's obvious why they want to protect Syria. It gives them a satellite in the Middle East/Mediterranean. I just can never get my head around why they think they need one of those. They don't need oil. They don't need gas. The Americans are slowly pulling out of it all, so they're not undermining their interests like they were during the Cold War when you could bung a crate of AK-47s to some idiots and cause all sorts of mayhem. What is in the superpower game for them?
    It makes even less strategic sense as it involves actively annoying Saudi Arabia who helped us put Russia's economy into a tailspin. There is the upcoming great Iranian Hezbollah weapons weapons bazaar for them to make a mint in, but both the Saudi's and Iranians depressing the price of oil and Chinese desperation to secure cheap oil as their economy slows will put a dent in those profits.

    You are a historian, so tell me if I am completely wrong. I've always thought that we miss part of what the Putins are up to because of differences in legitimacy. Foreign policy in democracies is often captured by institutions instead of politicians because there are no votes in it. Diplomats and militaries prefer stability and can win the backroom argument because handling Syrian refugees well won't keep you in power. However, one Willie Horton loses you the election. Unless there is an external shock policy tends towards inertia and long term rational strategic positions. The opposite is true for Putins because their legitimacy questions end with grainy trial footage and executions. Leading to politicians capturing foreign policy and pursuing it for their own ends instead of pure national interest. It works ok, until they pull a Saddam and over calibrate.

    At least that is what I keep telling myself.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    It's obvious why they want to protect Syria. It gives them a satellite in the Middle East/Mediterranean. I just can never get my head around why they think they need one of those. They don't need oil. They don't need gas. The Americans are slowly pulling out of it all, so they're not undermining their interests like they were during the Cold War when you could bung a crate of AK-47s to some idiots and cause all sorts of mayhem. What is in the superpower game for them?
    It makes even less strategic sense as it involves actively annoying Saudi Arabia who helped us put Russia's economy into a tailspin. There is the upcoming great Iranian Hezbollah weapons weapons bazaar for them to make a mint in, but both the Saudi's and Iranians depressing the price of oil and Chinese desperation to secure cheap oil as their economy slows will put a dent in those profits.

    You are a historian, so tell me if I am completely wrong. I've always thought that we miss part of what the Putins are up to because of differences in legitimacy. Foreign policy in democracies is often captured by institutions instead of politicians because there are no votes in it. Diplomats and militaries prefer stability and can win the backroom argument because handling Syrian refugees well won't keep you in power. However, one Willie Horton loses you the election. Unless there is an external shock policy tends towards inertia and long term rational strategic positions. The opposite is true for Putins because their legitimacy questions end with grainy trial footage and executions. Leading to politicians capturing foreign policy and pursuing it for their own ends instead of pure national interest. It works ok, until they pull a Saddam and over calibrate.

    At least that is what I keep telling myself when I think "Why are they?".

  4. #54
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Mikem taking his 'Best New Poster' tag from the old place and running with it

  5. #55
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    I prefer the argument that Saudi Arabia was actually after your shale margins to remind you that you needed them more than the Iranians. Had they been after Russia it seems to me that they would have started flooding the oil markets before they did. Besides, isn't Russia more gas dependent? I did like that theory that the Qataris' involvement in Syria was down to the regime blocking their proposed pipeline to Europe that would have cut Russia out.

    I would have it the other way around. I think there are votes in it (or at least the politicians think there are), and whilst institutions in both systems of government have control of foreign and defence policy-making, certainly in relation to its implementation, I would have thought autocracies provide a more stable environment for long-term ('rational' if you will) policy preferences (which can also be a negative, particularly in other areas [economic policy?]). It might just appear that autocrats can use it for their own ends because they don't have to spend months getting it through Congress and watering it down. So this stuff in Syria for example seems to be well and truly 'owned' by Vladimir Putin, but it does make sense according to their senseless wider policy.

  6. #56
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    I'm not even Yevrah, I'm just mikem. I remember oil prices dropping at roughly the same time we cut Russia off from the US banking system, so I assumed the moves were roughly in concert. However, I don't follow that closely enough to know if I have that timeline right. If we are in bed with anyone other than the Saudis we are not being very pragmatic. For the foreseeable future they will have the power to shift oil prices. Our shale oil is mostly a cyclical boom bust industry that happens at higher ends of the price band. It is not a solution to anything. If it was the US would be run on oil from Canadian tarpits - they have truly obscene levels of oil that is simply too expensive to process.

    I was trained as an economist, so I don't really think that our legislative or executive branches set the level of economic activity. The Fed does that, our politicians really only affect the composition. I get where you are coming from on foreign policy, but I think the votes are in the image instead of the details. I think you only lose votes on the details, particularly if those details are put in place. But that could simply be because politicians never do what I want.

  7. #57
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    From what I was reading I got that the shale industry was taking a bit of a kick-in, but the major start-up costs are all out the way these days, and technology is getting better at a ridiculous rate, so all it was really doing was consolidating things a bit and making it (being a new market and hit 'n' miss) all even more efficient. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written some good articles on it if you've got a bit of time to kill.

  8. #58
    Just Luca, but still a DJ Luca's Avatar
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    What do you do, mikem? I vaguely remember you mentioning something in the PE/VC space?

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    I'm off to read about the shale business. Good night.

  10. #60
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    Well done Harold, getting up to date on largely no longer relevant economic stories.

  11. #61
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    That's why you're known as 'Moronics'.

  12. #62
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    And yet somehow more informed than you. Can't wait for you to copy/paste a few articles about this in a month or two.

  13. #63
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    I shale let you know why you're an idiot tomorrow.

  14. #64
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    @Luca

    I am the juniorist of junior partners in a privately held venture capital fund. I run the Southwest US region. So I spend a week every month in wonderful places like Albuquerque, Provo, Dallas, and Santa Fe.
    @Lewis
    Interesting. I know they always used to pop up at a certain price point and then fell off after a certain price point, but if they truly solved the price equation, then they have something.

  15. #65
    Custom User Title phonics's Avatar
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    Isn't the whole point in the Shale Wars that anything below $65 a barrel is a loss for them, hence the cut to 60?

  16. #66
    Just Luca, but still a DJ Luca's Avatar
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    @mikem - that's really cool. I founded a startup last year as part of a competition, and our mentor was a partner at a VC firm, and learning from him has led VC to become an area I'm pretty interested in long-term. I'm a ways away from you, but I'd love to pick your brain sometime.

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikem View Post
    @Luca

    I am the juniorist of junior partners in a privately held venture capital fund. I run the Southwest US region. So I spend a week every month in wonderful places like Albuquerque, Provo, Dallas, and Santa Fe.
    @Lewis
    Interesting. I know they always used to pop up at a certain price point and then fell off after a certain price point, but if they truly solved the price equation, then they have something.
    Provo is pretty idyllic if you ignore the population. Come to Salt Lake much?

  18. #68
    Senior Member Davgooner's Avatar
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    How long before a US/British/French special forces unit is hit then?

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    Iran are preparing a ground offensive to work with the Russian carpet bombing.

    Time to leave and see how it pans out.

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    At least if Iran get involved it's getting sorted out in some way shape or form and there's no reason for the west to get involved.

    Either that or it's the start of a new Cold War.

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    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Benjamin Netanyahu told the UN earlier that Iran are looking to nuke Europe and America. Don't go full retard, mate. This was good though.

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    Yes but the Saudis want Assad removed, by force if necessary. They might be the joker in the pack. I don't think Assad and the rest will win, he'll never be a legitimate leader so he'll just constantly have a divided, warring nation. They need to sort their own shit out.

  23. #73
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    Geezer on the top left is trying to keep from making eye contact with anyone, because he looks primed to burst out into laughter.

  24. #74
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    @Luca

    Sure, anytime. I'll never be a regular poster due to work and kids, but .... Congrats on the competition. University incubation program?

    @ Spoonsky

    I'm from Louisiana and live in Arizona - the people could be worse. Much worse. I only end up in places where we have a project running, so I have not been in Salt Lake City for a while. Utah is not so bad, but a strange culture clash. The first time I went I asked why "Elder" was such a common Mormon name because of the name tags.

    @ Lewis

    You dismissed my last political theory, but I have another. Male politicians with aggressive combovers like Trump and Bibi make for extra lunatic politicians because their delusion that they have hair makes them susceptible to other kinds of delusional thinking. This one I am sure is a winner.

  25. #75
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    I was in Arizona for about 5 minutes when I visited the Grand Canyon.

  26. #76
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikem View Post
    You dismissed my last political theory, but I have another. Male politicians with aggressive combovers like Trump and Bibi make for extra lunatic politicians because their delusion that they have hair makes them susceptible to other kinds of delusional thinking. This one I am sure is a winner.
    Similarly, the actual balds (Putin) have nothing to lose because nobody respects them anyway. Nailed it.

  27. #77
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    These military actions constitute a further escalation and will only fuel more extremism and radicalization. We call on the Russian Federation to immediate cease its attacks on the Syrian opposition and civilians and to focus its efforts on fighting ISIL.

    Signed: France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia(!), Turkey(!!), Britain, and America.

    It's hard to know where to start with that one. Maybe with the argument that supporting unpopular regimes 'will only fuel more extremism and radicalization'. Is that the official line now? Because, lads...

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  29. #79
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34448942

    Time to get suited and booted, lads. Let's hope they don't chuck us untrained losers in first.

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    I'm sure they'll have non-combat roles for engin... Oh.

  31. #81
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    My colleague was an ex-fibre engineer in 'stan. He was also a gunner on Humvee patrols.

  32. #82
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    Bit slow here, but I now understand why Russia are doing this.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34448942

    For the lols and to demonstrate that no-one can, or is prepared, to stop them.

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    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    Meanwhile, America is standing up to Putin by bombing a hospital.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/wo...nduz.html?_r=0

  34. #84
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    Air strikes really are total shit.

  35. #85
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    They had full knowledge of where the hospital was, having been repeatedly informed, and conducted a sustained 90 minute attack on it from the air.

    Their justification seems to have shifted from the usual "collateral damage" to the claim that Taliban were active within the premises (denied by staff and irrelevant anyway since it's still against the Geneva Convention to attack a hospital).

    I'd speculate that the hospital was treating Taliban members and the US/Afghan authorities wanted to send a message that they weren't going to allow that.

    Calls for an independent enquiry have been predictably rejected, so instead we get to have another case where the perpetrator investigates itself.

  36. #86
    Senior Member Spoonsky's Avatar
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    I found this to be an interesting look at the Syrian conflict:


  37. #87
    Senior Member elth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    Bit slow here, but I now understand why Russia are doing this.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34448942

    For the lols and to demonstrate that no-one can, or is prepared, to stop them.
    To be fair, neither NATO nor the US+friends should probably be bothered about "stopping" Russia over a mess like Syria. If we're going to try punching Putin in the nose, best to do it over something the West actually has an interest in.

  38. #88
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    This says Israel is going to provide intelligence to Russia so it can bash people in more effectively. The Israelis love Assad really. They always have.

  39. #89
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    And it's yet another shot at Obama from Bibi. Although considering Iran and Russia are on the same side of this, maybe not.

  40. #90
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Russian ships hammering people from the Caspian Sea (thousand miles away) is pretty cool as well.

  41. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    Russian ships hammering people from the Caspian Sea (thousand miles away) is pretty cool as well.
    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e42_1444222522


  42. #92
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    It's getting increasingly lively in Israel. People always want to declare the 'Third Intifada', but then they're worried about looking daft when it dies down.

  43. #93
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    It's all a bit like my historic victory on immigration. Being right meant a worse country, being wrong meant not being right.

  44. #94
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    The Palestinians did warn against forced multiculturalism to be fair.

  45. #95
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    It's getting increasingly lively in Israel. People always want to declare the 'Third Intifada', but then they're worried about looking daft when it dies down.
    The Third Intifada looks likely here. As you say, "lively" is the word.

  46. #96
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    Erm...apparently Turkey have shot down a Russian jet on a bombing run because it violated it's airspace.

  47. #97
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    That's a bullshit twitter thing.

  48. #98
    Senior Member Davgooner's Avatar
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    The Russian effort continues to be pretty massive. 64 raids yesterday alone:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-isis-24-hours

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    They've really putin the effort.

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    So...how long before one of these long range Russian rockets takes down a passenger jumbo?

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