So how do people expect the next few days to play out?
May must be finished but does she need to stay on to make a deal with the DUP to keep the Conservatives in power? If she does go today what happens then as far as anyone forming a government?
Theresa May's Conservatives
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
Tim Farron's Liberal Democrats
Paul Nuttall's UKIP
2 people's Greens
Nicholas Durgeon's Scottish Nationalists
Satan's Sinn Fein
Dr Ian Paisley's DUP
Some other bunch of nonces
I'm foreign, but I wish I were an Englishman
So how do people expect the next few days to play out?
May must be finished but does she need to stay on to make a deal with the DUP to keep the Conservatives in power? If she does go today what happens then as far as anyone forming a government?
She can't "go" as PM until another one is appointed. She can quit as Tory party leader and then she'd be caretaker for a bit.Originally Posted by Yeldoow
That's my understanding anyway.
She's also not going to quit, at least not today.
Resign (or be biffed), 2 months of leadership contest, another election to follow, if there is anyone capable of leading. Rinse and repeat, forever.
Maybe this is the true face of Orwell's permanent war.
How can you have a government (and Queen's Speech) in that interim though? She'd have to get something voted through or it's back to the country. Is there some sort of fallback whereby Sir Humphrey can keep things ticking over?
She'd get them through in the interim, because the Tories will fall into line for fear another immediate election without a new leader would be worse. The DUP will vote it through having extracted the modern equivalent of the French roasting the Germans over the Versailles reparations.
I can't imagine she stays longer than six months, however. The only viable alternative I see right now is David Davis. Not because he's great, but because as Brexit Secretary he can move reasonably seamlessly into the PM's job and lead the negotiations without it basically representing the country ripping the script up. But her authority is absolutely shot, and it's inconceivable she can keep it going for too much longer.
David Davis is a pillock, as would be discovered under scrutiny. It's Boris (also a pillock, but a teflon one) or bust.
David Davis would get absolutely annihilated in a GE. May comes off as cold and doesn't know what she's doing. Davis comes across as an arsehole who doesn't know what he's doing.
I'm now inclined to think that, whilst they should still replace her by whenever the next conference is, they should just stagger on with the Orangemen as long as possible. That mob surely won't actually require as much bribing as is traditionally assumed, given the alternative, so just break the back of the Brexit negotiations and then you're on completely different territory if you do require another election.
I can't imagine what the DUP will try to extract. A ban on gays, or dancing maybe.
The FTPA is going to be useful here too. How times change.
He can't be PM. The numbers simply don't work.
It'll be corporation tax cuts to match ROI and torpedoing any watering down of the union through special status in Brexit etc.
How much would the IRA have to seethe before they took their seats?
Other than the border, aren't they as HARD BREXIT as anyone? It's all good. Working majority. Don't do anything daft. Just get Brexit through.
Never. They won't recognise the parliament, and they'd have to swear an oath of allegiance. They won't even call it Northern Ireland, for fuck sake.
Yes, they are. They're the most Eurosceptic party in the UK (excluding UKIP). There's a manifesto majority for hard Brexit, based on the Tory/DUP manifestos. The working majority here is, what, thirteen? That's enough if the Tories can hold it together for five years without shitting themselves.
Going off your political predictions the last few years I've just put money on the Stone Cold music playing and Gerry Adams walking out wearing a shirt with Jeremy Corbyn dabbing on the front.
edit: I'm not sure Gerry Adams is even the correct reference there but you get the plot.
So let's all calm down.
Weren't they already starting to have problem ensuring party unity before they lost their majority? There's no way they're keeping it together through all of the contentious shit that they have to get through for Brexit.
Sounds like the Orange Order are doing their bit for Queen and country. Puts a tear in your eye. If only the Reverend were around to lead the way.
Tories are, if nothing else, pragmatic and like having power. They've stood on a manifesto for hard Brexit and can force it through with the DUP. The alternative will be the government collapsing, and they won't let that happen.
The issue will be attrition in the Tory seats through by-elections etc. which will ultimately shaft them below the working majority by 2022.
He's so much better at this stuff than he was a year or two ago. An actual defined message helps but there's carrot for every voter and stick for the opposition behind every point he makes.
If they're stupid enough to call another GE, he'll womp it. Although Theresa May was the next Thatcher 2 months ago so meh.
She still got a million more votes than him, and they can't all be billionaires. He is an actual idiot.
Well, this is it. I don't have unique insight, I just read a lot of the polling, focus groups, on the ground feedback etc. Some of the former had the Labour SURGE, but there was really very little indication that this was going to happen in terms of the sheer size of the vote percentage and translating into seats.
It's also a huge blow to Crosby plc.
"Bernie would have won"
He remains thick as shit. The Tory tragedy here is that they've managed to convince 40% of people to vote for him, which really takes some doing.
The rest of us were duped by the Murdoch press.
Rupe then left us to die on a hillside, battered by the advancing red army. No supplies, no leadership, all hope lost. But wait - is that the wind whistling its final lament, or is that the sound of distant flutes?
As expected:
I'm all for this. Just get through the next five years, for fuck sake.
Wait a second, did the Lib Dems end up with the same amount of seats they had before but none of them are the seats they held yesterday?
What?
No, they have 12 but they've lost a handful they held and won them elsewhere.
They lost 5 of the 9 they had, and gained a few others.
Paul Nuttall is going out on a wobbler here.
They have no MPs, Brexit is happening. Will they even stand in an election in 5 years? What's Arron Banks going to do with his life? That reminds me, I have a Twitter feed to check.
What a lovely image. I'm going to listen to sectarian songs all day.
Has he quit or what? With retrospect you have to say that Farage got out at the right time.
Farage, if you take his mission as being to conduct the ultimate chancer lolfest rather than to be elected or do anything serious, has played a blinder.
If we assume that the government intended to have trade agreements ready to go for Independence Day, will the other countries be more likely to want to rush those through to have free trading terms in place before any potential communist takeover?
This might all work out. Top trolling.
He was very good. Ok, slightly weak on the IRA stuff, but if it's a mobilisation of the youth vote he's managed then fair play to him and 18-25 year olds are less likely to understand/worry about the significance of that anyway.
Ultimately it's not good enough to run on a campaign of fear and after Brexit you'd think the Tories would have learnt their lesson, but here we are again. On one hand it's staggering May is trying to hang on, but on the other, who else is there and if we have to have another election this year then it's peak shambles as a nation politically.
That said, I still didn't believe that exit poll last night and was wholly wrong about that, totally miscalculating where the UKIP votes were going/that the youth would finally get off their arse.
I think the UKIP votes did largely go to the Tories (or 50%+, as was trailed). I have a spreadsheet and my Tory numbers were within 1% of being right. It was the youth uprising wot won it (or wot got 260 seats, at least).
Sadly we've finally reached the point where a majority of the population are not old enough to remember what happened the last time we had a socialist government.
Andrew Neil looks to have re-painted his hair.
Number 7 is absolutely brilliant and worded perfectly.
So you're going to have the following people in a position of power.
I've seen that going around. What's the issue with trusting Muslims to go to the shop for you?
Do you not think it's slightly hypocritical to cite this sort of thing when you froth at the mouth when Jezza's words are brought out?So you're going to have the following people in a position of power.
How can you do that and not mention Sammy Wilson.
You're the only one frothing at the mouth about that.
Probably needed a bit of context, that one. He was defending a minister/hate-preacher at the time who'd said that Islam was satanic and "spawned in hell".
Where can I get a bowler hat and sash at short notice?
I'll have some sent round.
Oh, and not to forget a Rangers shirt. What year was that lol 'tangerine' away one?
2002.
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