Skybet have it for 7 places
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Skybet have it for 7 places
Coley put up Molinari at 250/1 didnt he
Might have to either stop checking his tips, or start backing them.
Actually I see he’s dropped off now. Yess!
Wouldn't be remotely mad.
Korhonen placing is :drool: despite missing out on the win. Swung and missed on MacIntyre. EDIT- Never mind, MacIntrye is still in play for a place.
Amazing. Didn't put Mikko as ew and every other one as ew. Top banter.
btw, American golf fans are the worst.
"Kooch".
Just fuck off.
Vegas might sneak a place here.
He needs some bogeys from those above him but the weather is on his side.
Going to need Charl blowing up I think, and the Doc.
One shot off a dead heat placing.
PGA Championship
The second major of the year. Since moving into this calendar spot the PGA Championship has struggled somewhat for an identity. Whereas the Open is a test of links golf how it was first designed, the US Open is set up to be brutally difficult, and the Masters is the Masters, it's often been hard to say what exactly the PGA is for. It has a nice big trophy, and major status, but all too often the PGA of America has set courses up in a more 'friendly' fashion so as not to embarrass its club pros, 20 of whom qualify for this tournament each year. Despite those interlopers, it is undoubtedly the 'deepest' field in golf, with all of the world's top 100 invited, and a somewhat haphazard qualifying process raising that field to 156. This year it seems they had to go a long way down the list to find a reason to invite Rickie Fowler, could not find one, and then just invited him anyway, because, well, I don't really know.
All that being said, I am very much looking forward this year's event, and that is mainly because of the venue. Rather than some boring parkland course, this year it's at Kiawah Island. This is a remote, somewhat wild, coastal venue in South Carolina notorious for the 'War by the Shore' Ryder Cup in 1991, when Seve trolled everyone to death, American players were wearing combat hats to SUPPORT THE TROOPS, and everyone went a bit mental. If the wind gets up, as it did in 1991, Kiawah can be brutal; if not, it is still a fairly tough test.
A more recent source comes from when this same Championship was played at Kiawah in 2012 and Rory McIlroy won by eight. In fact, that tournament was more or less dominated by Europeans, as is often the case when conditions become firm and fast and the wind gets up. Kiawah will need deadly ball-striking and a solid short game to get up and down when things go awry.
So how are the big contenders looking? Imagine my shock that after a comeback win, Rory McIlroy has swiftly been installed as favourite. He may well win - there are a number of things that point to him having a strong chance - but he is poor value at the price. Dustin Johnson has been all over the place since winning in Saudi, and although Jon Rahm appeals in the same way he always does, I have decided to learn my lessons and not side with him (he can thank me when he hoists the Wanamaker on Sunday night).
I have three main selections e/w, and three triple figure selections for your spare change. The below are all 11 places with SkyBet, which I'm sticking with, even though my top pick was tempting on the nose as well. Side bets will follow when the markets are up.
Selections
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Cracking write up Jim.
If I go with 10 points each on the top three each way, how many points would you suggest on the longshots? Assume that's each way too?
I have it like this (using your 10pts as a baseline)
10pt Spieth
8pt Hovland
5pt Hatton
1pt the others
And yes, each way the lot, I didn't phrase that great.
Ta very much.
So as not to mess with your system, what measurement do you normally use with pts? 100?
One last question, what does this mean?
If they place in the top 11 Skybet pay out for each way? Was looking online for what counts as an each way in golf and it seems to vary by bookie.Quote:
The below are all 11 places with SkyBet
In my 12 year old brain Kiawah Island was some fantastical Isla Nublar style place whacked out in the middle of some ocean somewhere, giant reptiles chilling by the greens and all.
I normally don't state the staking plan in here (as it's up to the individual what they want to do), but my standard thing is I have 5pts e/w per tournament and distribute them depending on the selections. For majors I double up to 10pts.
And yes, each way pays out the top x places, 11 in this case, and it will vary across firms (this being a major, you get more places at most firms). Top 11 means the top 11, so if you have say a four-way tie for 10th, then it would be a 50% payout.
Apologies if you've no doubt already covered all this, but what's the logic on doubling up for majors? Easier to call?
Gone all in (£25) so I get the free bet.
It's Eurovision week, my favourite betting week of the year. The reason Eurovision is a brilliant market to bet into is that it's pure hot take (you can't model it or look at the head-to-head lol), and the volatility of things going from 50/1 to 10/1 and back again is always a laugh.
You formulate your takes and fly whichever flag you think comes closest to nailing the formula. There is (almost) no variance or bad beats. Unlike in sport, there can be no debate as to whether the winner deserved to win or not. The winner is whoever came closest to getting the formula right, and the winner thus defines the formula for future contests.
We've had 6 or 7 favourites over the last couple of months but the market has now decided that it's a two horse race between France and Italy. They are the two stand out acts, and are very different to one and other with very different appeals (jury/televote). There's some weirdness elsewhere in the market, including what I'm guessing is a Cypriot millionaire driving their entry's price into the low teens over the past few days, and not much respect being given to the excellent Bulgarian entry.
I'll go through all the acts, organized by semi-final and whether I think they'll qualify or not, and what I think of their chances in the final where relevant. I've mentioned a few semi bets in the write-up but I'm not as keen on them as I am on the bets for the final.
I'll do the Big 5 & host (who qualify automatically) first, seeing as how the two favourites come from that group.
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Semi 1
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Semi 2
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Bets I like currently:
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This is my current guess at the top 15:
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Start a thread for it and link the songs.
I have no idea what Jimmy is talking about with his Golf tips, but it sounds like he knows his shit to a ridiculous degree and they should be behind a pay wall. Get dat money Jim.
My mate at bet365 says Jim will start to have a tracked account soon and everyone who they see following him will be restricted. May as well enjoy the good times while we can.
I don't think Jimmy tips anything that you can't get on with the exchanges. Probably better prices there too.
Daws has dobbed you in and/or monetised your tips for personal gain elsewhere [THE GROUP!].
I said the clever people, not THE GROUP.
Speaking of which, James's Eurovision preview is quality and I'm going to go through it listening to the songs over the next few days.
Jim could charge £20 a month for his tips and he’d get hundreds of folk paying it. The amount of people paying for horse tips (half them odds on or evens fav) with horrible strike rates is ludicrous
Just went through a few, honestly I would rather nail my own bollocks to the kitchen floor than ever experience the Danish entry again. I don't share James's enthusiasm for Bulgaria either, it's like the John Lewis advert from hell.
Ukraine absolutely bangs.
Bulgaria is pure "moment" and there's nothing in the contest like it, the Portugal winner in 2017 is a decent comparison. It comes down to the performer and I think she's very good.
One of the best stories of last week week was the Ukraine vocalist having a covid scare and missing the second rehearsal. They seemingly plucked a random Dutch woman off the street to stand in and she was fucking great.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v39i-sPHsQ
Snitches get stiches.
No dobbing, I just asked him. Maybe at such a low level (and a variety of bookmakers in use) it's probably not being picked up. When Yev starts chucking his mint £50 at every Moriarty though, we're done.
My main concern, and I have previously stated it, is that some pleb was detected copy pasting one of Jim's non betting posts on Reddit. So if someone was to do the same passing off Jim's tips as their own we would all be penalised for the crime of Jim being a thoroughly good lad.
Side bets for fun on the PGA
Top Asian - Takumi Kanaya - 10/1
Top SA - Dean Burmester - 10/1
Top continental Europe - Victor Perez - 18/1
Dual forecast Spieth / Hovland - 150/1
Someone to card a round of 18 pars - 20/1
I can't find a market on Omar Uresti to make the cut, but if you can find one, take 'Yes' which should be 4/1 or better.
No Top Asian, dual forecast or "round of 18 pars" on Betfair that I could see.
The exchange currently has £10 left on Uresti to make the cut @ 11. I took £5 of the initial 15.
11 is a bit daft. Basically, as mentioned above, this tournament invites the top 20 'club pros' from their annual championship, club pros being distinct from touring pros - i.e. these are the guys who work at a golf club, teach lessons, sell clubs and clothing in the shop etc. They are good players but nowhere near Tour standard. However Uresti, who won their championship the other day, is basically a cheat - he's an ex tour pro who has now fudged some kind of eligibility as a 'club pro' even though he's never done a day's club pro work in his life. As a result of this everyone hates him. I thought he would be no more than 5 or 6/1 to make the cut given that Rich Beem (the Sky Sports commentator) is 5/1 and he doesn't even play much golf anymore.
The market looks absolutely horrific and I'm the only one who has any money on it right now.
Uresti has a few quid at 11 and then it drops to 1.03.
There are probably a few floating mugs in those kind of zero liquidity exchange markets, if you time your run. A lay of that at 11 is bold to say the least.
Happy enough that Belgium got through the semi, but got Azerbaijan and Israel wrong. Should've really opposed Croatia.
The two major movers in the outright after the first semi are Cyprus are out to 55 which is all sorts of lol, and Ukraine are into 11ish 4th favs, which does seem much too short now. Malta briefly went fav after their showing which was a bit of a barnstomer, but drifted again after drawing first half in the final. I dunno. The first half could be pretty tame so it could really stand out at 10th in the running order or something. We also got a full clip of the Italy performance, and I'm a bit surprised that that's still trading favourite. It's a bit abrasive innit?
The Ukraine price movement is just me calling in a few favours with Big Wallet Billy. It's a certified firecracker of a tune and needs to win.
Don't @ my Uresti takes whilst Streelmania is running wild across South Carolina.
lol @ Rory seething and lobbing a ball after getting a bogey.
Random thoughts on betting Eurovision this year while it's fresh in my mind. Probably about a 15% ROI off about 10k staked in the end. Had hoped for a lot better with the amount of time and effort invested.
Was a pretty tough market this year with a lot of uncertainty. Probably not firm enough in my convictions and nowhere near selective enough. It's a four month build up with new information coming out sporadically. I found it hard to be selective and ended up staking a load of old wank. I correctly called it as a two horse race between France and Italy, and I think I ended up with decent sums on Italy at average odds of 9ish and France at odds of 8ish. Pretty ideal, except I also had a load of money on stuff that was never going to contend like Sweden, Romania, Belgium, Greece etc. It's a massive waste of time staking something speculatively at 100/1 or whatever in March in the hope it drops to 10/1 at some point in the future and you are able to magically time the trade out correctly.
I think the way to do it is follow the national finals and get on any stand-outs in February/March, and then literally forget about it all until the semi finals. There's too much insider information in the market that I don't have access to in between.
Got way too drunk tonight and completely failed at evening out my France/Italy positions during the jury vote as I had intended.
Lost a big chunk on Bulgaria. Don't think it was a bad punt at all, just didn't come together. Them losing the tie-break for 10th place was a sore one. Had way, way too much invested in them though.
Malta coming 7th was flabbergasting and rather expensive. Completely tanked the televote. Also extremely surprised at Iceland doing as well as fourth.
Greece a success in the end, as was the Cyprus lay. Russia top 10 was a pleasant surprise on the night.
Moldova coming 13th is an absolutely massive lol and is 100% down to bought votes.
Yeah, Moldova was dreadful. It was like a remedial version of Holly Valance - Kiss Kiss.
Streelman is on it today.
It does appear that we may have a developing situation.
I really fucking hate Mickelson and the dickhead American golf fans.