The Betting Thread

I put a fiver on Cristal Palace Cat at Kempton and Stevie G which put me back up. Tomorrow looks fun, all the big priced places. Mon the super yankees :drool:

If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

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Originally Posted by Manc

I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.

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As expectedly, Sky is no longer risk free. Horse must finish top 4 for money back. Scammers.

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Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel

If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

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He has 20k just chilling in his account balance, too. Mad man

I like the amount of people questioning his decision to cash out by saying he should have done a £350k lay of the reverse result. If he had another £350k he should have let the bet run.

Tremendous cash out.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Golf w/e 21 March

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Honda Classic

The last stop on the Florida Swing, this was a particularly enjoyable event last year, one of the last gasps before the pandemic struck, and was won by Sungjae Im. This year will be a little more subdued with all the big names having the week off after THE PLAYERS and the great events that preceded it, with most returning for the Matchplay in Austin next week. As a result this week's field is not the strongest by PGA Tour standards but offers a ticket to the Masters for those not qualified, and sometimes this is where the computer can strike. PGA National is a pretty fun layout featuring the so-called 'Bear Trap' holes towards the end. Wind can often play a part.

Tringale 33/1
Huh 80/1
Long 90/1
Hoag 100/1
McCarthy 100/1
Lebioda 300/1

Magical Kenya Open

Like most national opens, this is an old event but this will only be its second time having European Tour status. This year, for the sake of filling up the schedule, it's immediately followed (with a Tuesday start!) by a second tournament at the same course (I'll do that one next week after we've seen the first one). The whole thing, from the name to the venue to everything else about it, feels a bit like a fever dream and the field is a bizarre mashup of various decent to low level Europeans, a batch of 18 Kenyan golfers, and a smattering of low world ranked players from other African countries. I've gone for a pair of big-hitting saffas as my main selections, and smaller stakes advised on five other longer shots.

Burmester 35/1
Nienaber 45/1
Vincent 70/1
Meronk 100/1
Kruyswijk 175/1
Enoch 200/1
Tree 350/1

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What a first round in Kenya. Everyone on -3 or better (although a couple are still playing) with Meronk leading the pack at -6 right now.

How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.

Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

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Originally Posted by niko_cee

How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.

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This one?

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https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/03...6056145054.jpg

I think you've just described how fractional odds and accumulators work. 13*11*5*26*5.5 = 102245 * 5 = 511225

He took a £250k cash out, and the remaining leg fell at the first. Stunning.

I was just multiplying all the fractions together and getting a significantly different outcome, I didn't know you added 1 on to each denominator.

Yeah fractional odds are a load of nonsense. Not as bad as US odds, though, which continue to melt my brain each time I encounter them.

I come across US odds A LOT in the course of researching golf stuff and I don't know how they can be considered a superpower while using them. It's absolutely mental.

PLUS FIVE HUNDRED, MAN!

They're a steaming pile of shit.

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Originally Posted by Manc

Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

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Good when it works out for you though.

I need Royal Kahala in the next for £180 off 80p. I’ll be pretty gutted if it comes in with that little amount put on

Denny McCarthy has absolutely shat his pants on the last two holes.

Was looking decent for a place tomorrow with an outside chance of winning but he's fucked it hard.

He's meant to have ability but he never really impresses me in practice, he got done by the Bear Trap™. Tringale is well in with a shout though if conditions are anything like this tomorrow.

Pleased to say that after blackout for the first three days, the final day of the Magical Kenya Open will be broadcast tomorrow morning as the TV equipment has finally cleared customs at the port of Mombasa. It's those little things that make the Magical Kenya Open so magical.

It's amazing how much Wise struggled since the 6th onwards.

Would have been horrible to watch had The Computer thrown his name out.

From -14 and looking good for a win to just about holding on to a -7.

A place/dead heat for Kruyswijk depending on the places your bookmaker offers which is lovely.

Betfair offered 7 places so he just sneaks in for a full place but it also means that Burmester just missed out on a dead heat.

Both of the dozy fuckers bogeyed the last, although Burmy I think would have been denied the full place by Gonnet who I thought had retired about 7 years ago.

Still a 175/1 place for Kruyswijk even at my stake of 0.4pts is a profit on that tournament, somehow.

I'm in profit across both tournaments with my stake.

If Tringale can go on to do something special and McCarthy recover after his back 9 last night that would be lovely.

Aaron Wise with a 4 putt for a triple bogey to take himself from -10 to -7 and bring those on -6 (like Denny) into play was a heroic move.

Think he's getting a part place with that monster birdie putt at 18. What a scummy way of making a weekend profit from triple figure warriors.

Aaron Wise is desperate to see Denny McCarthy place.

Edit: Annoyingly Tringale missed a birdie at the 18th which would have given me a part place.

Computer this week returned 30.15pts from 20pts (one could have done better than that with bolder staking than mine).

This week is going to be an absolute mess as we have the Kenya Savannah Open or something running Tuesday to Friday (fuck knows), and the WGC Matchplay starting Wednesday which is one of my favourite events of the year (matchplay rules) but obviously all normal strokeplay betting norms are out the window so it'll be a bit of a voyage of discovery for the computer. Hopefully get something up for both tomorrow night.

Amazing stuff Jim. The computer is a thing of beauty.

Kenya Savannah Classic

This tournament may have a different, less magical name than the Magical Kenya Open, but it's essentially the same tournament again with almost exactly the same field. What is different is the odds: pretty much anyone who had a decent week last week has been slashed, with those who struggled drifting like a barge. With this tournament playing Tuesday to Friday (I'm really not sure why), you'll need to get on quickly but the computer laps up this sort of thing: reversion to the mean should be rife, in both directions. If there are double-contenders we won't have them, but here are six to play.

Otaegui 45/1
De Jager 66/1
Angles 70/1
Besseling 70/1
Lieser 125/1
Cockerill 175/1

WGC Matchplay this evening

These DJ gambles will be interesting to see how it pans out.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/book...-stable/480295

My tipster actually tipped Perfect Predator at 7/1 and then when doing the write up noticed the gamble, so I also have a trixie for Notnow Seamus, Blood Eagle and Perfect Predator where £8 returns £678 so I’m fully onboard with the fix. Also have a single for The Gold Bug at 6/1 and reverse forecast for the 2 in the same race - Gold Bug and Getaman. Hopefully I’m well off by 4:30.

WGC Matchplay

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This is always a very enjoyable break from the grind of weekly strokeplay and has all the sport's top names at a quirky, fun venue in Austin. The 64 players are drawn into 16 groups of 4, the first three days are a round robin. The 16 group winners qualify, which can force some pretty gun-slinging sudden death playoff scenarios on the Friday. The last 16 then play in four knockout rounds with the final on Sunday night. The draw is out and inevitably there are some great matchups. My favourite groups are the all-European one (Hatton, Westy, Garcia, Wallace), Group 2 which features 'JT' up against three true match play grinders, and of course Bryson's date with the far-flung trio of Tommy Fleetwood, Siwoo Kim and rank outsider Antoine Rozner.

I've found it very difficult to convert the computer's normal strategies into match play as, obviously, it's a very different game, one in which you can win by being bad as long as your opponent is worse. I have used Sky Bet odds here, who pay out each way on making the QFs, which is pretty generous in my book. I have four each way selections to win, and some side bets.

Each way: Collin Morikawa 20/1. I haven't been on Collin for a while but I'm returning to him this week at his Matchplay debut. This will be a good test of his Ryder Cup credentials for later in the year. He's received a fairly kind draw in Horschel, Homa and Poston (although anyone is capable of beating anyone in this format) and with his dead straight ball flight and consistent striking I fancy him to tame some of the scoreable holes on this course.

Each way: Sungjae Im 30/1. Sungjae's putting has been pretty hazy this year but his striking immaculate and if he finds it this week - starting from a very conquerable group involving Victor Perez, Marc Leishman and Russell Henley - I fancy him for a strong run at the title.

Each way: Corey Conners 50/1. For a third start in a row I'm backing the Bank of Conners, which has paid out handsomely in Bay Hill and Sawgrass, and I fancy could do the same in Austin after a week's rest. He has a fun and gnarly group with Spieth and Fitzpatrick, but should he get through that he will be in fine shape.

Each way: Robert Macintyre 125/1. This may seem bold, as he is drawn in the same group as the world number one. However, although he won this a few years ago, I'm not convinced that Dustin is terribly arsed about it; he'll be more focused on his upcoming Masters defence, and at the best of times DJ is a golfer motivated largely by money, which he will earn here even if he crashes out early. This tournament often has a long odds international runner - names like Dubuisson, Tanihara and Bjerregaard come to mind from the past, and lefty Macintyre I fancy to have the fighting temperament for match play and boost his own Ryder Cup claims.

Bezuidenhout, Ancer & Zalatoris all to win their groups @ 50.57/1.

Finalists Morikawa and Matsuyama: 200/1

Non-American winner: 10/11.

Corales Puntacana

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No writeup to speak of for this except that we already had this tournament in the same season, which is weird. Anyway, it's an opposite field drudge fest in the Dominican Republic, and here's what the computer thinks (5 places with Bet 365)

Howell III 33/1
Dahmen 50/1
P.Perez 75/1
Stuard 140/1
Merritt 150/1
Goosen 250/1 (bit of a blast from the past, to say the least)

I've followed on the group winners.

I've only just realised that Im and Bob Mac would meet in the last 16, but whatever.

Add Scheffler in place of one if that clash worries you.

I have a 5 fold with a small stake on Matsuyama, Bez, Ancer, Morikawa and Im to win their matches tomorrow as well as a larger triple of Matsuyama, Ancer and Morikawa.

Bob Mac taking down Na was pretty epic, as was Mr Large getting done in by Rozner, gallic shrugging his way down the fairways in his central casting van de Velde visor.

What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.

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Originally Posted by Baz

What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.

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Without looking at the course there are probably a low number of hazards (and they possibly don't come into play often), easy to read greens, a low rough, wide fairways etc etc.

Lack of wind helps too.

Tee position and pin location are probably very favourable meaning players can be aggressive too.

Generally the four things that defend a course against par are design, firmness, wind and pins. Don't think Karen's had any of the above these two weeks. The other end of the spectrum, you go to one of the tougher Open layouts, or a US Open and they'll usually have all four in abundance.

I know nothing about golf, but surely if a load of people are -15 to -25 below par, then the par is wrong.

Par is set for the ordinary competent player, rather than top class touring pros. It's also almost meaningless.

It's just the number of shots you're expected to take reaching the green + two putts.

I've also got £15 on Lanto Griffin @ 2.63.

With the way Rory has been playing lately (including yesterday) it's free money.

Also, lol at Justin Thomas.

Edit: Rory 3 up after 3 holes. Free money indeed.

Ancer being 2-0 up after the 14th only needing a draw to go through but losing the next 3 holes (before tying the last) to lose 1-0 is seriously annoying.

He better not lose his playoff.

Edit: :moop:

This is such a crapshoot. Great watch though. I'm now rooting for Rahm for my so far quite auspicious fantasy team.

Will do a silly eightfold tomorrow morning for interest.

Yeah I've enjoyed watching it so far.

Oh and MacIntrye :cool:

Get fucked DJ.

He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

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Na didn't even have to "claim" a win on that hole either. He knew he'd take him down.

Bob McIntyre 😎

If you used a bookie that pays out for last 8 (Sky Bet did) then he only needs to beat Monsieur Perez in this game for an each way place.

Mad how basically every top name has been knocked out, very different form of the game this, brings the madheads like Poulter and Bubba right into play. My approach wasn't quite right in the end but still got Bob running.

I've put £5 on Fleetwood, Garcia, MacIntyre, Rahm, Harman & Spieth to win their matches today.

American golf coverage really is horseshit.

They missed MacIntyre's insane drive on the 18th yesterday and it looks like they've not got Tommy Fleetwood's hole in one today.

Edit: Seems they did get the Fleetwood hole in one.

I’m on Povetkin to beat Whyte by any means. 11/4 Just because I don’t like Dillian Whyte.