The Betting Thread

Homa with the choke.

lol at Finau.

I think we've just witnessed apex Finau. If I ever put him up please take me round the back and shoot me.

Excellent work as always Jim.

Yep - got to love the computer.

WGC Concession

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This has been the WGC Mexico in recent years at the rather charming Chapultepec, but the Mexicans seem to have run out of money so at short notice it's been moved over to Florida and The Concession course. The Concession is an exclusive private club, the course designed by Jack Nicklaus and in a move that sums up both Nicklaus and golf itself, it takes its name - The Concession - from a famous act of sportsmanship by Nicklaus in 1969 when he conceded an opponent's putt in the Ryder Cup. What better way to celebrate such humility than by building a fucking great country club in the middle of Florida, starting memberships from $30,000 a year, paying the humble Nicklaus to design the course, and naming it after the time he gave someone a 4 foot putt. With capital letters. The Concession. Anyway.

It's hard to know who among the big dogs to go for in this event with the course a bit of an unknown quantity and the WGC limited field of 72 is always a topsy turvy affair, mixing players from all the world's main tours, with the US based stars dominating the book but with some quaint wild card names on the sheet as well. One of the 72 players - 'Trevor Simsby' - was news to me, which is a pretty rare thing. WGCs tend to be won by established form names, so there's no Long Odds Larry pick in this one. This is my first time backing Xander for a long time, and he has been extremely trophy-shy in the last 2 years, but he is so good so often that he has to win one at some point.

Schauffele 12/1
Niemann 33/1
English 45/1
Ancer 80/1

Puerto Rico Open

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For a minor PGA Tour event attracting weak fields opposite the WGC, this is a notorious tournament. Scene of Tony Finau's only career win, it boasts the 'Puerto Rico curse' in which none of its winners have ever gone on to win a PGA Tour event in the mainland USA. Some proper numpties have fluked a win here in the past, notably back to back wins for someone called 'Michael Bradley' who has never been heard from since, and also a win for Martin Trainer a few years ago who is surely the worst golfer ever to win on the PGA Tour. The field this year is bolstered by a few relatively big name (but well underpriced) Europeans who didn't make the WGC, such as Poulter, Wallace and Pieters, looking to harvest some sweet Ryder Cup qualifying points and/or earn their American card with a win. These star-free markets are always a journey to say the least, but I've found six that look like strong value.

An 28/1
Pendrith 55/1
Burgoon 70/1
Hossler 80/1
Garnett 125/1
Baker 250/1

How are Atletico not favourites for tonight

Neutral venue and they're shite. 5-0 Chelsea.

You’ll be playing the same back 3 as you were 3 seasons ago who got battered by an average Barcelona team. I’d be wanting at least 7/2 to go anywhere near them.

Had a sneaky wager on Grillo for Puerto Rico @ 16/1.

Good luck - he wasn't far off for me but went with Ben An instead.

If anyone wants the 2021 Cheltenham Guide from Wetherbys, DM me your email.

I get it every year.

This one: https://bettrendsshop.co.uk/weatherb...ng-guide-2021/

I've just seen Brice Garnett and he looks nothing like I imagined.

In my mind he's a fat giant of a man who chews tobacco and loves the American 'Frat' life.

He's not even 6 foot ffs.

Most golfers look like they should do. Exhibit A: Ted Potter.

That is a strong head shape.

Four consectuive bogies on day one has cost me and Emiliano greatly.

Nothing from the WGC (they are often awkward bastard tournaments, god knows what the computer will make of the Matchplay in a few weeks) but a full place for Garnett in Puerto Rico brings me back 19.50 from 20pts, so not too bad. Also keeps the year's ROI above 100% from 63 golfers backed.

The next few tournaments stateside are great: Bay Hill next week (was epic last year just as lockdown drew in), The Players, Honda which is fun, and then the Matchplay which I am all over like a rash. Euro regular events are back next week too which are often a happy hunting ground for the computer.

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Originally Posted by Baz

If anyone wants the 2021 Cheltenham Guide from Wetherbys, DM me your email.

I get it every year.

This one: https://bettrendsshop.co.uk/weatherb...ng-guide-2021/

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Avoiding Elliot runners like the plague now

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Just the one event this week (European Tour doesn't start again until next week) but it's a good one, Arnie's old event at Bay Hill. Tiger in his pomp was more or less unbeatable here (8 wins) but of late it's turned into a bit of a graveyard for American players, with forriners winning each of the last five editions, most recently Tyrrell Hatton's win last year in brutal conditions. I'm backing that to change this time around. It seems to be one the top yanks dislike for some reason and of their top boys, only perennial villains DeChambeau and Reed appear here, but McIlroy, Hatton and Hovland among others do set up a decent field overall. Unusually, I've decided to swerve all the top players as there isn't much value and they may be in a mode to tune up for the Players next week. Instead, a sextet of middle of the road contenders for your delectation.

Zalatoris 40/1
Conners 80/1
Gooch 80/1
W.Clark 100/1
Howell III 150/1
Champ 150/1

all e/w

All in on McIlroy.

I hope you're right but he ain't got it just now.

The closest one was Bryson but he ain't got it either. Cue a McIlroy/Bryson playoff 12 strokes clear.

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Originally Posted by Waffdon

Avoiding Elliot runners like the plague now

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Henry De Bromhead will be the happiest man in Ireland. Good on him

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

I hope you're right but he ain't got it just now.

The closest one was Bryson but he ain't got it either. Cue a McIlroy/Bryson playoff 12 strokes clear.

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:baz:

It will be fun seeing him choke over the next few days though.

Victory March
16:30 Dundalk tomorrow
14/1 EW

The computer strikes again.

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Originally Posted by Manc

10st 5lbs. He's going to absolutely fly round.

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Did you see what he’s just done with 11st10 against decent horses? He’s going to absolutely piss it

Trevor Hemmings strikes again. There is no stopping Cloth Cap.

What's everyone's picks for UFC tonight?

Israel in round 2

Rory. :cool:

Bryson and Spieth choking in front of American fans here would be incredible.

How’s our lad Conners looking?

Tied third right now, 2 off the lead.

No way he's beating these players, place would be great.

I'm annoyed as Zalatoris was cruising towards a place and then dunked one on 17.

He needs to snap out of this little wobble he's having.

If Corey can't manage it I'd love to see Westwood do it.

That was a MASSIVE eagle.

17 and 18 absolute graveyards today. -10 might be a playoff.

Another top, top shout though. :thbup:

Bit annoyed not to pick Bryson as I knew he was the choice from the short priced men, but I didn't trust his form at the 12/1 price.

Still 7pts profit and takes us back above +100% ROI on the year so far.

Thought Bryson was going to miss that parr putt.

Only in golf can the winner thank first his sponsors, then the spirit of Mister Palmer, and then a hospitalised cripple who sent him a text also invoking the spirit of Mister Palmer.

Glorious nonsense, and the nonsense only escalates with THE PLAYERS next week (their capitals, not mine).

Golf w/e 14 March

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THE PLAYERS

The PGA Tour is a silly organisation in many respects. It is the richest and probably most powerful body in golf, but, thanks to its origins as basically a money grab by the top professionals fifty years ago (in a similar-ish way to darts's PDC), it does not actually run or have any control/influence over any of the four historic major championships. This has been a source of great pain to the PGA Tour and its marketing department over the years, and its response has been to try to elevate its own flagship event, THE PLAYERS, into the 'fifth major'. Simply writing the name of the tournament in all caps hasn't done the trick so in recent years their marketing job for THE PLAYERS has extended to somehow pretending it really is a major (it isn't), or even elevating its status above the real majors in their broadcasts and in-house statistical records. No one is fooled. Still, THE PLAYERS is indeed a great championship and Sawgrass is a very fine venue, boasting the famous 'Eye' island green 17th hole and many other fun ones on the way in. The field is as strong as they come and the winner earns a three-year exemption and a huge truck full of dollars. So why isn't THE PLAYERS a major? Well - and this is something that will always be lost on the PGA Tour - it's because this tournament is ultimately all about money, and the four real majors are about so much more.

(these odds from Bet365)

Rahm 16/1
Im 55/1
Conners 90/1
Todd 175/1
Harman 200/1
Grillo 200/1


Qatar Masters

A considerable tone shift from THE PLAYERS here as the European Tour returns with its first regular event in quite a while. It's also a return to golf that finishes earlier in the day, for those who like that pattern. Last year this was the last tournament before lockdown and it ended with a playoff that ran for about two hours. It's very hard to know what to expect here as a lot of the players have been off for weeks or months, which would normally not favour the computer, which relies on reversion to the mean (the mean, in this scenario, being all the market really has to go on). However, a bit of sprinkled form from the Middle East a few weeks back, and the UK golf ban giving many players fewer opportunities to 'find something' away from prying eyes, should give us a fighting chance. I would expect a couple of real long shots to get into the mix.

Otaegui 66/1
Janewattananond 100/1
Veerman 100/1
Migliozzi 110/1
van Driel 300/1
Tree 500/1

all e/w

I thought we might be on Jazz soon after his great day 2 & 3.

Jazz is mental at 100/1. Rahm feels like a bit of a 'fool me 83 times, shame on me' situation, but he's gone outside Dustin, Rory (?!) and Billy Beefcake now, whereas I've got him as #1 fav, so back to the well we go.

I reckon Betfair may have got wise to THE COMPUTER (give it its due) as they consistently price under what you post up now (whereas before they were more often than not better).

Betfair are offering 10 places as opposed to 8 though.

Ah, fair enough.

As Mahow says, partly depends on how many places they're paying out for. I tend to use Coral which pays at 7 places, but this week they've gone to 8 places and their odds are so shite that I had to change to Bet365 (also 8). I see Betfair are doing 10 places this week so that probably explains that.

They've shown no signs of getting wise to it yet (I would be able to tell if they were). You do get tighter markets with fewer inefficiencies, which tend to be the likes of the WGCs and the Masters with the more selective entry criteria. I am working on a model for the WGC Matchplay in a couple of weeks but we'll see if it works. Ryder Cup, christ knows. Lump on America, crack open a beer and enjoy the losses.

The most likely explanation for the computer's success remains that it's a lucky run, or else much cleverer people than me would have been on it years ago. But then sometimes you can be too clever.

Betfair also usually offer better odds for the American events. They're a little stingy with the European.