Started like a twat, just got a birdie back to +1 but early days. Being drawn with that blubbery whale-clown can't help.
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Started like a twat, just got a birdie back to +1 but early days. Being drawn with that blubbery whale-clown can't help.
I put £2 ew on Hatton, Molinari, Speith, Fleetwood, Munoz and Fitzpatrick for the lols
Rahm. :drool:
He's woken right up.
The scenes when Tiger does it again :drool:
Tiger will shit himself over rounds 2 & 3.
Hatton just got fucked hard by a dickhead green.
Looked like a beautiful shot with a chance to eagle and then it just rolled back into the water.
Tbf that's an established miss at 15, you can't be short (or long) of the right pin. Might have stuck up there yesterday in the sodden conditions.
This leaderboard is mental, pretty much every top player going well except McMuff who has checked out (he was a favourite of the big name tipsters this week for reasons that really do elude me).
Null and void his bet as top debutant?
Probably not, as someone else will win it.
DJ is so short now. Sub 3/1. I'm not sure. I'm not sure you can stroll away with this like he does playoff events and WGCs. I might make a small investment in Bryson at the higher odds he now has.
Is Hatton finished?
Cut I think will be -1 so anything in the 60s would get him through that, winning looks a long way away though.
Blacklisted.
Anyone see what odds Belgium were pre-match? Mortgage-maker stuff if above evens.
Still time for Mason and Tammy to turn it around :happycry:
A shame that Augenstein and Mike Weir shat the bed on the final day otherwise it would have been a good weekend.
Augusta is a really wild ride.
Any of the golf ones still on?
Rahm placed at the end.
Any Celeb betting @Yevrah?
I'd fancy Vernon Kay to take the most stars in a trial as a dark horse, he used to play UK Gridiron after all.
That was a bloody hard one to call. DJ was just too short at 8/1 or whatever he was. Rahm saved the day, he played utter toss for about 60% of it and still placed. Bit annoyed I didn't get Smith e/w given I did back him for top Aussie but then he wasn't in consideration for outright. The ones I got rid of from my longlist were Muńoz 100/1 (glad as that would have been a heartbreaker), Westwood, Spieth and Lowry, so I didn't toss anything big away. That said, I am pretty happy that my philosophy as outlined in the preview post was pretty sound, I just didn't get the right players.
The hard thing about Augusta is that it's usually quite easy to dismiss about two thirds of the field (much more so than for a normal tournament), but at the same time form tends to go out the window so among those who are left it's a bit of a sweepstakes. Whichever geniuses were on Frittelli and CT Pan I would have liked to have seen their workings. CT Pan I would have given next to zero chance. Sungjae I have been on many times, including last week, but I thought his putting was too shit for Augusta. Then the other place players were just the obvious candidates at unattractive short odds.
Back to the happy place of shite tournaments. Only two left on the PGA this year but several on the Euro.
RSM
English 25/1
Dahmen 66/1
Streelman 90/1
Stuard 150/1
V.Taylor 200/1
Joburg
Bezuidenhout 12/1
Rozner 35/1
Brown 60/1
Lawrence 150/1
Ferguson 175/1
All E/W. Bez is a particular fancy even at that skinny price. He has to fly all the way from Augusta to Johannesburg to tee it up for this dogshit B-tier Euro event. He's the only player doing so, and let's just say it's not the sort of trip you'd make if you didn't have a carrot for doing so.
50p each way on each for a bit of interest, let's rerail this train.
Fuck me Russell Watson is on the outright list at 25/1.
Hopefully he gets in.
I went through my record last night (since August when I began using the computer). I've backed 79 golfers, with 3 winners, 11 places and 65 losers, for an overall return of 2.12 (if total stakes are 1). I would say that is an unusually good run, so don't expect anything else now until hell freezes over.
Thinks in America are going far too well right now.
English and Taylor (who I got at 301) are right up there and Dahmen & Stuard who looked like they'd miss the cut yesterday are marching up the leaderboard.
26 under between the five of them yesterday, and currently 8 over today. Absolute bunch of Gone With The Wind cunts at the top of the leaderboard, if Kisner wins I will have to firebomb his massive plantation house.
6 months of trying to do betting full-time alongside work but gonna have to bin it. Definitely getting harder each year.
@-james- how's your year been?
My worst yet, but I pretty much took March to August off. Had a couple of decent months since getting back into it but it is definitely getting tougher. I don't think the market is that much sharper, the main problem is getting on bets. Pre game limits and sing/sbo voids are worse than ever so I'm relying on bookie accounts, in-play situationals and the few leagues I feel confident I can beat kick off prices on.
The other thing is that fixtures are really terrible at the moment. Really missing things like minor international tournaments.
I should add though that I'm definitely fed up of it now.
I'm thinking of going all in after Christmas. I used to be in a private racing group so will join that again, start with a 100 point bank and hopefully turn some decent profit.
John Oster's in it. :D
That doesn't sound all bad, which is good. But sounds like most people are having a similar year then. Agree with the main issues being that it's harder to get on bets now - have you been using Drin? Their Skype broker has been good but has been out of action for weeks, which is the tip of the iceberg really. Unclear why but could be because being forced out of china / new regulations or something. Some are expecting that brokers will soon only take the most mainstream leagues pre-game (and still only on Matchday).
So yeah, getting on can be a pain. I've similarly been trying to make most of bookie accounts / shops.
My year was going really well up to end of August but lost about 75% of profit since then and mostly been constant losses. Still managing decent odds beat against asia closing line but variance refusing to change.
Will miss it though. ☹️
I think Sing have just realised they can do whatever they want in pre-game and brokers can no longer afford to absorb the voids. Live is better because there is apparently far more liquidity from locals. Maybe it's a covid thing, dunno, surely their turnover has gone to shit now with everyone avoiding them.
Can a professional gambler afford to have a bad year?
Depends if the convergence is diverging.
I'm still up for the year. I can't imagine the depression that would be involved with a losing year.
Leeds & Leicester @ 23/2. Great value.
Harris English is trying to win this.
I still have access to one of the big Asian agents who I placed Benham's bets with. If that sounds like it may be of value to you mandem give me a PM and I'll see if he's about and we can negotiate my cut.
English with a part place salvaging things somewhat. Streb winning is an absolute classic golf happening- hasn't done anything at all for almost five years, and there he is, bringing it home with balls of steel at about 4 billion to one. The three people in the world who backed him antepost will be doing lines off the ceiling tonight.
Only one tournament this week - Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek
Bezuidenhout 16/1
Jordan 35/1
Sterne 60/1
Pavon 100/1
Lawrence 200/1
Jerling 1000/1 (pennies on this, if you can find a top 20 market or something then do that instead)
The computer seems to be giving me a Frenchman a week at the moment, presumably on the wind up.
Thoughts on Zander Lombard?
I imagine the tipsters will all have him (haven't looked at them yet) due to course form and an ok week last week, but the computer isn't too impressed and wants 100/1 which is not available as far as I can see.
For a bit of context, Brandon Stone (2nd favourite with the bookies behind Bob Mac, past winner on this course, great form last week) is rated a miserable 13th in the computer's estimations. It really takes no prisoners.
Fascinating stuff. You should run a blog of some kind.
Do you really have some kind of computer system spitting these out, or is that just what you're calling your opinion for lols?
lol, when I used to use my opinion I'd win half as often if that. The computer reigns supreme.
EDIT: There is a bit of judgement involved in making the actual selections, but the base data I use basically tells me the 15% of players in a tournament that are OK or good value, and the 85% where the bookies are having you over. Obviously the players where the bookies are having you over often (usually, in fact) win, but that doesn't mean they were good value bets.
You get tournaments like the one we've just had at the RSM where you don't get much return - in this case, just a T6 for Harris English - but all five players made the cut and all tore up the course at various points, so you end the week pretty satisfied that the theory behind it was good.
I have faith in the computer.
Real Madrid 3.2 tonight.... that seems a little big.
Veerman @ 33/1
Fichardt @ 40/1
£100 return if either comes in.
What a nonce going against The Computer.
The computer doesn't hate those two, just not quite stand out enough to make the list. Veerman's been on a hot run but somewhat fear we might just be on the wrong side of it, but good luck.
It's quite astounding how much it hates Brandon Stone, who is getting tipped everywhere and now in to favourite in some quarters. Let's see who's closer.