The Betting Thread

I know Newcastle are shit, but 28/1 for 0-0 seems ridiculously high for a team that manages to successfully park the bus at least once a season.

The city handicaps are free money.

How many of you are on Locks Corner tomorrow? :gs:

And for how much?

The markets (and Nate Silver) still have massive faith in City being the best side in the league. They are basically exactly the same price as the last time this fixture was played. City are worse and Newcastle are probably about the same as then so it's hard to have much faith in the minus being value. Even with that, and line-up featuring a Rodri, Gundogan double pivot and Ferran Torres up front I'm not sure I could back the + though.

City's games this season vs equivalent last season in terms of xG difference

Toggle Spoiler

City

Wolves Away:
19/20: -0.2
20/21: +0.9

Leicester Home:
19/20: +2.4
20/21: -2.7

Arsenal Home:
19/20: +3.1
20/21: +0.6

West Ham Away:
19/20: +2.3
20/21: +0.6

Sheff Utd Away:
19/20: +2.1
20/21: +1.0

Liverpool Home:
19/20: +1.4
20/21: +0.2

Spurs Away:
19/20: +2.7
20/21: +0.6

Burnley Home:
19/20: +3.0
20/21: +2.4

United Away:
19/20: -0.5
20/21: +0.2

So’ton Away:
19/20: +2.1
20/21: +0.1

They're just not putting away the muck like they used to.

Ends 5-0 lel.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

How many of you are on Locks Corner tomorrow? :gs:

And for how much?

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Tenner e/w. Saw the odds have halved since you posted initially.

I'm balls deep now (missed the early price), MON.

You fucking fraudster.

:harold:

I backed train wreck at 50s with a £1 ew double with Darlac in the next

Should have known better than to trust somebody whose yearly highlight was "dodgy dealings"

Liverpool handicaps to recoup it all. -2 at evens is the free money, the rest is what trains are made of.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Offshore Toon

Should have known better than to trust somebody whose yearly highlight was "dodgy dealings"

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He made a mistake and jumped badly on the second to last. :sorry:

I was only joking. The fact the odds more than halved shows there was something in it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

He made a mistake and jumped badly on the second to last. :sorry:

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Nah, he was travelling pretty badly at that point. Was never winning it.

I had a couple of quid on the three draws at 100/1 but got panicked by Origi's late goal record and cashed out for £41 :moop:

Eye watering talent over in Leopardstown today.

13:15 - The Storyteller @ 13/2 - At the odds it's worth backing him to reverse half a length with the fav. Let's not forget this lad has beaten Gold Cup winners in the past.

14:25 - A Plus Tard @ 11/1 - Only a six year old so has scope to improve. Wasn't that far behind Min (3rd) in the Ryanair and has beaten the impressive Chacun Pour Soi in times gone by.

15:00 - The Big Getaway 10/11 - 8l behind Envoi Allen, should piss this.

I'll run with that, Manc.

I've done a series of doubles/trebles over Leicester, Villa and Everton. I very much like Villa to win both halves at 16/1.

City, Leicester, Villa DC today.

Leicester backers might regret it looking at how many changes we’ve made :sick:

What a final half mile by A Plus Tard.

Mon the Manc.

So close to the treble coming in. Great picks.

I was too late for the first but got on the other two.

Cheers Manc.

£140 return for the double. Possibly got a bit lucky with both Delta Work & Minella Indo falling in the Savills chase, but I'll take it.

Villa crowd onto one, our midfield is all wrong for this game.

£36.50 on the Villa.

Your defence is horrific as well. Only saving grace is two actual wingers playing. Hudson Odoi will have Targett on toast

Gonna bet against the Ryan Garcia hype train, once Bet365 make the fucking odds available again. I'm thinking draw as the judges are probably bent.

I havent seen the odds but in guessing Campbell is at least @3

He is. I got the draw at 18/1 and Campbell KO/TKO at 7/1.

That second round knockdown was beautiful.

Garcia hitting gloves so far but that final punch of round 5 got through.

Yeah, he's definitely ahead so far and Campbell looks shaky. Could be over very soon but Campbell has levelled out now.

Strong body blow put Campbell down and out. That look painful. Lopez and Haney beat Garcia.

What a body shot. Fair play, Garcia. The crown stuff is so ridiculous but he's pretty good.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel

Strong body blow put Campbell down and out. That look painful. Lopez and Haney beat Garcia.

---

Depends how many stops the hype train makes beforehand. If he goes for a title fight now it probably won't end well.

It's eary days but I'm being super disciplined with my betting this year. Tracking everything and sticking to a staking plan.

Toggle Spoiler

https://i.imgur.com/Jiyftkp.png

Hit rate's not amazing but return so far has been pretty great.

Probably all out the window when Cheltenham rolls around, mind.

Go Boy a non runner there but stuck the rest on a Lucky 31 EW so choo choo I guess!

Dropping £50 on a Sunday. :drool:

Fairyhouse double @ 18/1

12:40 - Runrized - Second ever start was in the truimph hurdle and wasn't disgraced. Long time off the track, could be anything.

13:10 - Delvino - Beat a very smart type in Ballyadam on debut who has since won a G1. Huge scope.

On.

Mon the Manc.

Choo choo.

Shambles.

Played...

What happened? Are we changing his name to Graham?

Both failed to place.

Chelsea -1 depending on team news.

Is it still going ahead?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Waffdon

Chelsea -1 depending on team news.

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I assume the 'team news' you're expecting is for us somehow to name Ronaldo and Messi either side of Tammy Abraham up front.

Man City team news more than anything. You have your best front three finally playing though so 2/1 is very decent odds for the win

Man City XI: Steffen, Cancelo, Stones, Dias, Zinchenko, Rodri, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, Sterling, Foden

Looks fairly rancid.

Fuck it, Mon the Waff.

Lol

Waff is cancelled.

Bonjour and a happy new year. Tournament of Champions. These are dull picks but there is absolutely nothing in the market, tightest one I've ever seen.

D.Johnson 6/1
Reed 16/1
Muñoz 55/1
Horschel 66/1

All E/W.

The Jimmy train is here lads.

Buckle up.

I'll follow on Reed. Money down for JT also.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55560401

This should be an interesting affair. Markets have Chorley a slight fave. No opinion myself, just interested to see how it pans out.

It's hard because I have seen these reserve teams play lower league teams in the cup and batter them. I might have a single but would swerve it for my acca.

Speaking of which, I often feel this saturday is the most potentially profitable in the football calendar due to the round of the FA Cup, a lot of big teams playing lower league opposition. There are some question marks over the likes of West Brom and Sheffield United, but simply backing all the PL teams against the weaker ones and the likes of Milwall against Boreham Wood pushes the odds right up.

Could be a potential train in there if we could narrow down the cupset potential.

Dundee United are 7/2 to beat St Johnstone at home and I can’t quite get my head around it. United aren’t on great form but they’ve faced the top four recently and are a lot more reliable than the latter. If not going outright, lump on double chance as it should be about 1/3

Pitch inspection at 12 apparently so hold off for now

It's fucking freezing here (-1) so could be a frozen one.

-7 last night in Perth so probably similar there. There is under soil heating but no idea how good that is.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Bonjour and a happy new year. Tournament of Champions. These are dull picks but there is absolutely nothing in the market, tightest one I've ever seen.

D.Johnson 6/1
Reed 16/1
Muñoz 55/1
Horschel 66/1

All E/W.

---

I'm only scoreboard watching but Horschel is look good right now.

It's also a shame Munoz had a shitter on day 1 otherwise he'd be right up there.

Feelings towards JT @Jimmy Floyd?

Speaking of JT:

View Tweet

This wasn't great.

That's what I was getting at. Do keep up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Manc

That's what I was getting at. Do keep up.

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I thought you were talking about his ability to win it here seeing as you've got money on him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Manc

Feelings towards JT @Jimmy Floyd?

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Hasn't improved my opinion of him. It's not worth cancelling him (or anyone) over, but at the same time if you use it in that situation you probably use it a lot, and it's not a word I like at all. Has a nasty edge to it that the other ones don't, the yanks seem to love it.

Most American golfers are genuinely terrible people and JT always comes across OK to me, but, yeah, well, whatever. Let's put it this way, you hear Tyrrell Hatton mouthing off on every hole of every round but you never hear him say that. And to be fair, you never hear Bryson or Reed say it either. It's not a great look.

The computer obviously has a method given three of the selections currently sit at 16 under and the other 15 under.

If Munoz hadn't played like a wanker on Thursday he would be right in it. Would like to see Joaco win this, lovely player.

If you can find a market for Hibs/Celtic might be worth lumping on the former. They were 13/2 before bookies realised majority of Celtic’s team is self isolating. The latter are pretty shite anyway

Edit: new odds probably aren’t worth it. They’ll be playing their third choice keeper if the list of players out is correct but still have first choice midfield and attack

Sky Bet have Hibs 3/1?

It's total guesswork at this stage without knowing who is out. Not many Hibs players who would get into a second string Celtic side anyway.

Sony Open

Simpson 12/1
Bradley 60/1
Na 66/1
Piercy 90/1
Perez 200/1

The best value of the five by a mile is Na.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

It's total guesswork at this stage without knowing who is out. Not many Hibs players who would get into a second string Celtic side anyway.

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Barkas
Hazard
Ajer
Ralston
Brown
Soro
Turnbull
Connell
Ajeti
Laxalt
Ntcham
Griffiths
Edouard

That’s doing the rounds but I’d take it with a pinch of salt. Would
Leave them with 3rd choice keeper and a youth player up front

Hard to imagine Edouard and Ntcham aren't two of the thirteen who got told to isolate tbh.

Livingston price looks nice given they seem to have been not up to much tonight.

Anyone seen this new betting craze doing long accas betting over 1.5 goals on farmer's leagues? Some guy landed one for £11k off a tenner earlier in the week and now everyone is trying it, to the point bookies are now suspending markets on the dodgiest fixtures :D

2.37 for Fulham not to lose with that Chelsea line up is very good odds. They played a better team against Morecambe

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Sony Open

Simpson 12/1
Bradley 60/1
Na 66/1
Piercy 90/1
Perez 200/1

The best value of the five by a mile is Na.

---

First time follower, and I'm cursing it by posting, but our boy Kevin is having a day of it.

He is doing very nicely. I'm slightly afraid of Niemann for the win, but good chance of place.

Simpson rolling up to joint second with Na is good news for the computer but bad news for dead heat odds settling.

Kevin Na winning with Simpson placing would be the perfect result here.

I'm still following my tipster's staking plan and up 37.675 points, aka £ 188.38 for January. :)

Think Steeley might go away with it now. Two places would be a good result though.

4 way tie at the top right now :eyemouth:

Kevin Na \0/.

The Computer coming up big early in the year.

Touch under £150 profit for me.

Top stuff Jimmy.

He had a few moments in that round but ultimately was just hitting it too well. 66/1 was straight up banditry, no idea what they were playing at.

I made a mental note to myself to open up a betting account and get on the Jimmy train this year, but the Old-Order Mennonites that run my bank don't do business with gambling companies, so I'll have to get creative to load my account without signing up for some questionable third party transfer service. Twats.

EDIT: Turns out the majority of Canada's banks and fintechs are run by Old Order Mennonites.

Yeah, excellent stuff Jim. Thanks!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luca

I made a mental note to myself to open up a betting account and get on the Jimmy train this year, but the Old-Order Mennonites that run my bank don't do business with gambling companies, so I'll have to get creative to load my account without signing up for some questionable third party transfer service. Twats.

EDIT: Turns out the majority of Canada's banks and fintechs are run by Old Order Mennonites.

---

Hey, I think you should get a Monzo account. Get one through this link:

https://join.monzo.com/r/340el90

Does anyone ever use your affiliate links, Baz? :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luca

I made a mental note to myself to open up a betting account and get on the Jimmy train this year, but the Old-Order Mennonites that run my bank don't do business with gambling companies, so I'll have to get creative to load my account without signing up for some questionable third party transfer service. Twats.

EDIT: Turns out the majority of Canada's banks and fintechs are run by Old Order Mennonites.

---

Just use paypal?

Nah, Bet365 doesn't accept that here in Canada either. The intermediary services on offer ("iDebit" is one of them, "Instadebit" isbanother) have a history of being a bit wonky, so I'd rather avoid.

I've been meaning to try out Neo Financial (a new neobank here) so I'll give it a whirl for this. Probably won't work, so I'll have to resign myself to using one of the above-mentioned services.

Oh, that's annoying.

Feels like I've had no luck on when to follow Jimmy's train - one time I did it I forgot to do e/w so the place didn't even stick any money back. Great work again though.

American Express

This is a slightly odd one. Much like Hawaii last week it's normally a pretty run of the mill event which would not attract the HUGE names, but this year Jon Rahm is playing and the market is a mess as a result. If he doesn't win, whoever does will do so at a tasty price. The computer likes Rahm so much that even his short price favourite status is seen as amazing value, so we're on him, and then I've gone with a few bigger priced citizens too.

Rahm 6/1
Champ 40/1
Clark 80/1
List 200/1
Bramlett 300/1

Abu Dhabi

The first Euro event of the season has a great if very top heavy field, almost the equal of the US event according to owgr. Rory McIlroy is playing here, as is Justin Thomas, who looks to atone for last week's 'faggot' controversy by taking a hefty appearance fee to play in a locality where homosexuality carries the death penalty. The computer barely makes the field favourite vs McIlroy and Thomas, so I have to be on one of them, but they're quite hard to separate. I've gone with McIlroy as he knows the territory a bit better, though perhaps Thomas will benefit from the newfound freedom to choose his own clothes.

McIlroy 6/1
Hatton 12/1
Coetzee 125/1
Rock 150/1

All E/W

£2.77 EW on them all.

Betfair Sportsbook have the American's priced very generously.

Rahm @ 7.5, Champ @ 46, Clark @ 126(!) and Bramlett @ 401(!).

I'll say once again that I quote Coral's odds which are almost always total shit, but that actually assists me in terms of being choosy about selections and sticking to the real value as opposed to borderline players who might otherwise be tempting.

It seems to happen a lot less these days anyway.

The Abu Dhabi ones are all at the exact same price.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

American Express

This is a slightly odd one. Much like Hawaii last week it's normally a pretty run of the mill event which would not attract the HUGE names, but this year Jon Rahm is playing and the market is a mess as a result. If he doesn't win, whoever does will do so at a tasty price. The computer likes Rahm so much that even his short price favourite status is seen as amazing value, so we're on him, and then I've gone with a few bigger priced citizens too.

Rahm 6/1
Champ 40/1
Clark 80/1
List 200/1
Bramlett 300/1

---

Wipe this out as Rahm has now withdrawn. Probably stick with most or all the others but will have to do a re-calculation.

Is that why the event appears to have disappeared off Betfair?

Guess everyone's odds will be getting a serious shave so Mahow may be sitting pretty on some of those.

Yes, it will be.

From memory I'm fairly sure Champ will still be value in the new field, but I'll have to have a look at those further up the tree. I have never yet had the Code Red situation in which Tony Finau shows up as value, not sure what I'll do then, probably notify Interpol.

Glad I went balls deep on the market as soon as Jim gave us the good word. Got Bramlett at 500s on Sky Bet.

Champ has moved to 41 (so same price as the original Coral price).

No other Jimmy selection has moved in the American Express.

American Express v2

Champ 40/1
Gooch 66/1
Clark 80/1
Schenk 175/1
List 200/1
Bramlett 300/1

Computer doesn't like any of the favourites sans Rahm, so we're spreading our stakes a bit thinner.

Hatton is looking quite good here.

Think he's in pretty handy shape, unlike Cam Champ.

That Bob Hope / Amex tournament is a fucking crapshoot if ever there was one. Sure enough Big Tony is in-running fav, pass me the smelling salts. Three of the six at least haven't spewed their guts all over the first round which is a bonus really.

Hopefully Hatton can win it tomorrow as I have more money (and his odds are better) on him but it's looking quite good heading into day 4. Coetzee also is currently in a dead heat place too so if he can pull away from the pack that would be lovely.

The way I stake (at least on paper) is I give myself 5pts per tournament and distribute them accordingly. In this I have 2pts each on McIlhatton and half a point on Coetzee and Rock. Normally it's much more even but this was a clearly topheavy field (he says smugly before his men placed 1-2 fuck it tomorrow and David Lipsky wins).

https://i.imgur.com/4Ee2ExF.png

https://i.imgur.com/P21BHae.png

Few quid back on Rory too.

Thanks Jim.

Yep, thanks again Jim. The Computer could end up being the TTH pension fund at this rate.

Vitaly Janelt 6/1 to be booked. :eek:

Edit- nope

Cheers Jim!

Hatton is an ice cold killer. Executed McIlroy in that head to head today. Can't wait for the next time the computer likes him (probably in America).

Farmers Insurance

I always like this tournament because it's at Torrey Pines, which was the only available course on Microsoft Golf, which was the only game installed on the Windows 95 when my parents first got a computer in 1995. It's ace: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAC3Asz8zV4

The US Open will also be held on this course later in the year so it's a bit surprising that only McMince and Rahm of the top, top names are playing. Anyway, I despise what the computer has come up with for this, but Big Dick Rick really needs something asap to get his career going again, and it looks like my ride or die relationship with Hideki is back on. His putting remains a bomb scare but the rest of his game is genuinely world class and projects for results. It'll happen one day.

Matsuyama 22/1
Fowler 55/1
W.Clark 100/1
Tringale 125/1
Brehm 400/1

Dubai Desert Classic

I'm not sure why Morikawa is playing in this, but he is, so there you are - he's about the only bloke with a Japanese name that I won't be backing this week. Hatton leads the market but without the twin titans of last week pushing his price out, the value isn't quite there. Instead we're going with a pincer attack with overpriced duo Paul 'cool beans' Casey and one of our autumn winners Sergio Garcia, as well as a complete left field selection in Japanese youngster Takumi Kanaya, who is making his European Tour debut. Tasteless rice wine for everyone.

Casey 20/1
Garcia 22/1
Kitayama 100/1
Kanaya 125/1
Els 300/1

Arigato.

Cheers Jim.

Spurs -1 AH @6.4 :drool:

Sit the fuck down, lad.

Casey :cool:

The Computer has started 2021 on fire.

I'm a bit miffed about Kanaya narrowly missing a place, but three wins in three weeks is scenes.

Won me a cool £15

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

I'm a bit miffed about Kanaya narrowly missing a place, but three wins in three weeks is scenes.

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Can you see anyone in America pulling their finger out from here?

Tringale & Clark the closest but they're still 4 shots behind the placing right now and there are some big names in and around there.

Looks a bit of a write off at the moment.

Think -9 will be the lowest score for a place (maybe -10), so will need a low one. I can't see it.

The main interest over there is Patrick Reed being caught cheating (yet again) yesterday and the fallout as he currently shares the lead.

Cheers Jimmy again!

It's a bit of a lucky run but at the same time, it's gone on long enough now that when I read the big name tipsters each week and see their (heavily researched, well thought-out) takes for considerably less results than I am getting in about 1/10th of the time spent, it makes me think this stuff is sometimes simpler than people make it.

I'm obviously not going to give away exactly what I do but there are basically three important variables that go into it (all using readily available information), and half the time I think these people are trying to involve about 20 variables, most of which are useless noise. For instance, no one went near Casey this week because he's had a long flight. Why? Why would a long flight (in first class) stop you from playing good golf days later?

Now for a six month losing run to prove I'm talking bollocks, but whatever.

Top work again Jim, cheers.

Be interested to see if The Computer doesn’t pick Justin Thomas.

It won't this week but rest assured the only things that go into the computer are golfing information. What it spits out is up to it.

How mathsy is the computer, Jimmy?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

How mathsy is the computer, Jimmy?

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Not terribly. The bookies will have better, and they cover most inefficiencies with their overround anyway. Although I'm up a fair bit since I started using this (around 100%, I think), I still find it hard to believe my method actually has a long term edge. It's just about knowing what REALLY makes good golfers good, rather than what people think makes them good. In every tournament there is normally (if I'm lucky) one big red flag on a player and a handful of little flags. I just run what I have against the odds and see what comes up.

When I put Na up the other week and singled him out, which I rarely do, it was screaming out as the big mistake (I think he was 66/1 and I had him 40/1). Then him actually winning at 40/1 is just luck. But you've got to be fox in the box for those, as you know better than me.

I think it's very likely that at some point this year I'll go three months without a bean and then I'll look like a wanker, but that's golf - it's a great sport to bet on because you can lose all the time and then your one win blows it all away.

Phoenix Open

This is always a fun tournament in the desert. Scottsdale will be familiar to anyone who had the old Tiger Woods series on playstation. Normally the 16th hole par 3 is a stadium hole packed with thousands of the very worst of trailer-party drunken college yahoos. Last year at the same hole they also managed the most hilariously mawkish tribute in sporting history by placing the pin 24 feet on, 8 from the left in honour of Kobe Bryant's old shirt numbers. No tournament will be more different with no fans and without all the commotion one can expect a birdie fest and very low winning score.

Rahm 6/1
English 28/1
Huh 110/1
Moore 125/1
Dahmen 150/1
D.Lee 300/1

Saudi Invitational

This whole event, and my picks for it, make me want to puke. This is the very worst that sport has to offer. Set in the centuries-old golfing, erm, mecca of King Abdullah Economic City, this tournament is effectively an advertisement for the murderous ways of MBS and his cronies. Golf, of course, being golf, laps this up with the self-awareness of someone who has just been sliced up with a bonesaw and placed into a number of holdalls. One only has to look back to last year and Phil Mickelson's risible claim that his appearance here was about 'doing my bit to grow the game in the Kingdom' as he smiled to the cameras and launched an exhibition drive into the Red Sea. Perhaps this year they will invite him to behead a local gay man instead. With big bung appearance fees on offer, Phil is not the only American star keen to miss Phoenix and fly halfway across the globe to play on the European Tour. Popular figures like Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau also make the journey, as does Dustin Johnson. It's an unpleasant spectacle; I am disappointed in a lot of the top British players for playing in it (props to Rory McIlroy and Matthew Fitzpatrick for never having done so) and I will avoid watching it but I don't see the harm in trying to scalp a cynical few quid out of it. When in Rome.

DeChambeau 9/1
Finau 18/1
Rose 50/1
Vegas 110/1
Hall 200/1

ON IT.

x

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Not terribly. The bookies will have better, and they cover most inefficiencies with their overround anyway. Although I'm up a fair bit since I started using this (around 100%, I think), I still find it hard to believe my method actually has a long term edge. It's just about knowing what REALLY makes good golfers good, rather than what people think makes them good. In every tournament there is normally (if I'm lucky) one big red flag on a player and a handful of little flags. I just run what I have against the odds and see what comes up.

When I put Na up the other week and singled him out, which I rarely do, it was screaming out as the big mistake (I think he was 66/1 and I had him 40/1). Then him actually winning at 40/1 is just luck. But you've got to be fox in the box for those, as you know better than me.

I think it's very likely that at some point this year I'll go three months without a bean and then I'll look like a wanker, but that's golf - it's a great sport to bet on because you can lose all the time and then your one win blows it all away.

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100% ROI is bonkers, and as you say likely unsustainable, but the sample seems big enough to indicate that whatever you're doing does work.

I've seen so many maths/comp science graduates try and build a model to beat the football markets and utterly fail because they have no idea how the game works, while some of the best gamblers I know have never written an Excel formula. The sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle.

All aboard

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

I've seen so many maths/comp science graduates try and build a model to beat the football markets and utterly fail because they have no idea how the game works, while some of the best gamblers I know have never written an Excel formula. The sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle.

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I suspect football is much harder to build a model for in that way, as the result is often less to do with the process and more to do with certain high-leverage moments. OK, if Liverpool play Northampton then you basically know that the process will dictate the outcome, but Liverpool v Man City may well hinge on who happens to convert a chance at a particular moment, which is luck. I suppose what you're looking for is a very small margin in the process that the market hasn't seen. In a 2 horse race with high liquidity, that must be almost impossible.

In golf, the winner's having around 275 stabs at the ball, so it's basically always about the process, and 72 holes is a pretty decent sample size to shoot at. Like football, if it was Rory v Tiger over 72 then it would be hard to beat the market, and Rory v Tiger over 18 would depend too much on randomness. The joy of golf is that in most cases it's a 150 horse race rather than a 2 horse race, and therein lies the magic.

Dublin Racing Festival Digital Racecard 6.2.21.pdf

Only Rahm left in the phoenix but not doing great.


A lot better in the Saudi with only Hall falling so far at the cut.

Think DJ will stroll Saudi so probably playing for places.

Finau is within touching distance at least for tomorrow.

Finau always seems to be in touching distance of a win and then chokes (not too badly mind) on Sunday.

Finau is like the opposite of the man for the big occasion. He's in decent nick though so hoping some combo of he, Rose and the michelin man can place up and drag something from the week. There are quite a few mugs in and around the top ten at the moment. David Horsey taking it to DJ etc is like, I don't know, the aggressive guy from your local pub getting in the ring with Tyson.

Big Tony on the charge.

'Rosey' (term use authorised by Butch Harmon) in the hunt for a place as well.

This is my first time with Finau up and in contention Sunday, should be a wild ride.

Taking money off Justin Rose feels immoral, I might donate any winnings to his sponsors Morgan Stanley.

Presumably, depending on how this all pans out, Tony Bloom (James) will be looking to buy the computer forthwith. Rinse them Jimmy, rinse them for all they have.

Always been a big fan of Tony Finau.

Really fucked up the staking on this bet so actually, come on Justin.

I had 1pt on each and 2 on Bryson (I don't post the staking plan because it's people's decision what they do, probably different if you're putting 50p on or a fiver or £100). If they both place (which they now should/will) then it'll be a profit on the tournament but probably not on the week unless Rahmbo pulls something out.

I managed to put less on finau than rose (really irrelevant now) and made Tony the same as your outside shots. Oh well. Good tips anyway.

Never change, Tony. Sniffs the lead and his arse completely goes on 16 and 17.

Decent shouts yet again. Cheers Jim.

My Bet 365 balance is looking pretty mega lately. £508.88 at the moment, with a couple of horses running later.

Uisce Beatha 16:10
Grand Morning 15:55

Both EW

Andy Dufrense to win without favourite

3rd. Shite

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Waffdon

Andy Dufrense to win without favourite

3rd. Shite

---

Monkfish is incredible.

Not quite as good as Honeysuckle ��

Will be interesting to see this Bezos horse run tonight (21:03 Santa Anita) cos I’ve fallen victim to the hype and backed him 5pts EW for the Kentucky Derby. :eyemouth:

Pebble Beach

No European tournament for a few weeks now so just the US event per week in February. This run begins with a bit of a silly tournament and not the best use of one of golf's greatest venues, but this year it should be better as the Ams are not there and so you don't have the six hour rounds or having to endure Bill Murray doing the same unfunny shtick he does in all of these things. On to the actual tournament and the field is surprisingly weak this time around as many of the top boys take a breather before the run of quality tournaments coming up. Not so for Dustin Johnson who travels over 13,000 miles from his blood-soaked win in Saudi to play here. We are on him this week even at the skinny odds offered - as with Casey the other week, I'm taking the 'Air Miles Margin'. Cam Tringale and Wyndham Clark have been backed in recent weeks with no joy but come up again here and I'm willing to run the gauntlet with them once more.

D.Johnson 7/2
Day 25/1
Tringale 50/1
W.Clark 66/1
Rodgers 150/1

All e/w.

Scratch above, there has been a whole tranche of withdrawals including DJ and Clark. I'll go again later when the new field is confirmed.

Word seems to be it's because it's forecast to be a bit cold, which just about sums up American golfers.

Pebble Beach Take 2

Cantlay 7/1
Day 18/1
Tringale 33/1
Rodgers 125/1
Schenk 150/1
McCarthy 150/1
Ventura 175/1

Haven't put 7 up in a long time, it's what happens in a star-free market. Spread those stakes. Cantlay is a bit of a cowardly pick but the computer likes him sans DJ, so there we are.

https://i.imgur.com/1tPP5kM_d.webp?m...idelity=medium

Kevin Na 175/1 for the Masters? :saywhat:

Would think that is about right. He isn't a great fit for Augusta. Does his work on the accuracy courses.

Cheers for the previous picks Jim, and this week's.

Thoughts on SiWoo Kim? @Jimmy Floyd

For what, the AT&T?

Has a reasonable shot vs this field, I would want about 35-40 to back him, think he was less than that when I ran my numbers.

Nice start for Cantlay and Tringale.

Had a few sneaky sidebets outwith the computer on Donald and KJ Choi as they were both 500/1 and I was feeling sporty.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by niko_cee

Nice start for Cantlay and Tringale.

---

You've jinxed them both for round 2.

Never post how well a golfer is doing before the start of day 3.

lol

Neither round was particularly disastrous.

I see Dufner's going well (well, well for 500/1) - he was on my long shot hit list of people I had heard of as well. Didn't go with him though, so apologies when he wins.

The computer kept giving me Dufner for a spell in the summer/autumn, though it's gone off him of late. He is in a group of players I do keep an eye on because they need results to keep their card, which he hasn't been getting so far. The likes of Donald and Choi are just blown up vets really who can get starts forever in the silly exemption categories because they were once good.

When did the Lincoln game get changed to tomorrow at 6pm? Swear it was 3pm. Only waiting on Hull to win with Dundee United/Norwich/Burnley/Watford paid out and then realised the Lincoln game wasn’t postponed and just a different time

It was postponed to then, because of weather (I saw something about it on twitter).

Got a few runners here but fear it might be a loss to Daniel Berger (straight vibin) and his slightly pornographic trousers.

Lashley with a massive choke there.

His chimpout after :harold:

I could do with another four putts from him on the next tbh. Day and Boutros right on the cusp of place, part place or no place.

I need Tom Hoge to not birdie the last part 5 to get a sliver of a place for my other boys, and we return from commercials to see his caddie climbing up a tree before they are both escorted back to the tee box on a cart. Love golf.

EDIT: I made 8.84 back off the 10pts, so a fairly OK week depending on your staking, but a bit annoying only to get that given I had three scoring players.

My stakes were basically covered so it was a free hit for me, cheers.

Genesis Invitational

We're now at the start of a long run of superb tournaments and I think that of all the non-majors, this one is possibly my favourite American event. Historically this was just the 'Los Angeles Open' and as always it's held at the brilliantly evocative Riviera Country Club in Santa Monica. With the old-timey clubhouse, the vegetated hillsides and an authentic Hollywood feel, this is a lovely, compact but challenging venue with some great holes. The field this week is also exceptionally strong, and after missing Pebble last week, most of the world's top ten are back for this.

The market is pretty tight this week, unlike last week when I felt it was a fraction sloppy. Our chosen top boy is Big Jon Rahm, who the computer absolutely loves but who hasn't really delivered when I've backed him in recent times. Let's hope that changes at this slightly heftier double-figure tariff. I'm also on 'young' Scottie Scheffler (who looks about 44), and some Aussie and Saffer longer shots. (late decision) we'll also stick with last week's placeman Cam 'Isosceles' Tringale for what seems like the 48th week in a row but whose solid golf is not being recognised by the oddsmakers just yet.

Rahm 11/1
Scheffler 40/1
Tringale 70/1
Smith 90/1
Frittelli 150/1
Schwartzel 225/1

All e/w.

https://i.imgur.com/Pnp1v3W_d.webp?m...idelity=medium

9 lengths off the winner.

I put my £5 free bet on West Ham -2 and won £50. Smugly overconfident, I decided to put it all on Bayern and Chelsea when Bayern were 2-0 down at half time :moop:

Checked out all my antepost bets so far, after @Waffdon mentioned bankers elsewhere.

Fantasio D’alene £5 EW @ 33/1 – Martin Pipe Hurdle
Lieutenant Rocco £5 EW @ 33/1 – Ultima Chase
Great White Shark £5 EW @ 16/1 – Coral Cup
Coo Star Sivola £7.50 EW @ 50/1 – Ultima Chase
The Storyteller £5.00 EW @ 22/1 – Stayers Hurdle
Hook Up £5 EW @ 20/1 - Mares Novice Hurdle
Paul’s Saga £10 win @ 16/1 – Stayers :sick:
Barbados Buck £5 EW @ 14/1 – Albert Bartlett
Houx Gris £5 EW @ 18/1 – Boodles Juvenile
Barbaos Buck & Houx Gris double £2.50 EW
Southfield Harvest £7.50 EW @ 20/1 – Pertemps
Appreciate It (Supreme) & Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) both to win £5 @ 6/1
Shishkin (Arkle) & Envoi Allen (Marsh) both to win £20 @ 7/2
Galvin £3.60 @ 4/1 – Win Any Race
Eskylane £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Holymacapony £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Monkfish £3.60 @ 13/8 – Win Any Race
Hook Up £3.60 @ 14/1 – Win Any Race
Locks Corner £40 EW @ 50/1 – Pertemps
Paisley Park £3.60 @ 5/2 – Stayers
Youmdor £3.60 @ 18/1 – Triumph Hurdle


Also
Bezos £50 EW @ 25/1 – Kentuck Derby :sick: now available at 40/1 :happycry:
Cloth Cap £12.50 EW @ 20/1 – Grand National
Kimberlite Candy £50 EW @ 25/1 – Grand National

:uhoh:

I see the GN weights are announced today. Hoping the handicapper doesn't anilihate Cloth Cap.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baz

Checked out all my antepost bets so far, after @Waffdon mentioned bankers elsewhere.

Fantasio D’alene £5 EW @ 33/1 – Martin Pipe Hurdle
Lieutenant Rocco £5 EW @ 33/1 – Ultima Chase
Great White Shark £5 EW @ 16/1 – Coral Cup
Coo Star Sivola £7.50 EW @ 50/1 – Ultima Chase
The Storyteller £5.00 EW @ 22/1 – Stayers Hurdle
Hook Up £5 EW @ 20/1 - Mares Novice Hurdle
Paul’s Saga £10 win @ 16/1 – Stayers :sick:
Barbados Buck £5 EW @ 14/1 – Albert Bartlett
Houx Gris £5 EW @ 18/1 – Boodles Juvenile
Barbaos Buck & Houx Gris double £2.50 EW
Southfield Harvest £7.50 EW @ 20/1 – Pertemps
Appreciate It (Supreme) & Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) both to win £5 @ 6/1
Shishkin (Arkle) & Envoi Allen (Marsh) both to win £20 @ 7/2
Galvin £3.60 @ 4/1 – Win Any Race
Eskylane £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Holymacapony £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Monkfish £3.60 @ 13/8 – Win Any Race
Hook Up £3.60 @ 14/1 – Win Any Race
Locks Corner £40 EW @ 50/1 – Pertemps
Paisley Park £3.60 @ 5/2 – Stayers
Youmdor £3.60 @ 18/1 – Triumph Hurdle


Also
Bezos £50 EW @ 25/1 – Kentuck Derby :sick: now available at 40/1 :happycry:
Cloth Cap £12.50 EW @ 20/1 – Grand National
Kimberlite Candy £50 EW @ 25/1 – Grand National

:uhoh:

---

Champion Hurdle - Honeysuckle @ 3.50
NH Chase - Coko Beach @ 15 ew
Cross Country Chase - Defi Des Carres @ 50 ew
Kim Muir - School Boy Hours @ 25 ew
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle - Hook Up @ 10
Pertemps - Come on Teddy @ 25 ew
Mares’ Chase - Elimay @ 3.75
Ballymore Novice Hurdles - Bravemansgames @ 5.5 NAP
Hunters Chase - Highway Jewel ew @ 16
County Hurdle - Eclair De Beaufeu @ 33
Ryan Air - Min @ 7
Supreme Novice Hurdle - Appreciate It @ 2.75 NB
Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill @ 5
Triumph Hurdle - Zanahiyr @ 3.75

Do have £15 Appreciate It, Shishkin, Honeysuckle, Envoi Allen and Al Boum Photo to win @ 154

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manc

I see the GN weights are announced today. Hoping the handicapper doesn't anilihate Cloth Cap.

---

10st 5lbs. He's going to absolutely fly round.

If anyone has £5 or less in their paddy power, might as well put a bet builder on for Liverpool cos it’s risk free: https://promos.paddypower.com/promot...CRMLEPLIV1602P

Angelino 2 shots was 10/1 when I did mine. 🤨

Managed to get 5 of my 6 through the cut in LA but most of them a way back and there's the odd complicating factor of several big dogs having missed the cut and Sam Burns having a five shot lead. He showed definite arse-twitching tendencies when I was on him at Houston and he led at 36 and 54 (I think), hoping he hasn't learned anything and they continue.

I haven't been watching but Burns with a lovely choke-job in round 3 so far.

Today should be a great watch, conditions are absolute carnage and everyone's going backwards. Obviously DJ the man to beat but I wasn't expecting to have Cam Smith just 4 back from the lead here.

Rahmbo clawing his way up the leaderboard.

Doesn't look like Burns will choke today.

He's trying to fuck it up.

Bloody Rahm always does this. Moops around for three days and pisses it on Sunday to finish 6th.

Just need Cam not to blow up.

Cam would do a lot better if he just shaved that thing he calls a moustache on his top lip.

Oh God, Finau is going to take this isn't he?

I'm rooting for Max, lovely guy. Finau sniffing the lead normally ends one way.

Finau's arsehole twitching on the 18th.

Looks like 18.45 returned from 10pts this week on my stakes, so a good week. Next week is an absolute sweepstakes.

+122.19% ROI in 2021 thus far. 3-10 from 53 each way selections.

Homa with the choke.

lol at Finau.

I think we've just witnessed apex Finau. If I ever put him up please take me round the back and shoot me.

Excellent work as always Jim.

Yep - got to love the computer.

WGC Concession

Toggle Spoiler

This has been the WGC Mexico in recent years at the rather charming Chapultepec, but the Mexicans seem to have run out of money so at short notice it's been moved over to Florida and The Concession course. The Concession is an exclusive private club, the course designed by Jack Nicklaus and in a move that sums up both Nicklaus and golf itself, it takes its name - The Concession - from a famous act of sportsmanship by Nicklaus in 1969 when he conceded an opponent's putt in the Ryder Cup. What better way to celebrate such humility than by building a fucking great country club in the middle of Florida, starting memberships from $30,000 a year, paying the humble Nicklaus to design the course, and naming it after the time he gave someone a 4 foot putt. With capital letters. The Concession. Anyway.

It's hard to know who among the big dogs to go for in this event with the course a bit of an unknown quantity and the WGC limited field of 72 is always a topsy turvy affair, mixing players from all the world's main tours, with the US based stars dominating the book but with some quaint wild card names on the sheet as well. One of the 72 players - 'Trevor Simsby' - was news to me, which is a pretty rare thing. WGCs tend to be won by established form names, so there's no Long Odds Larry pick in this one. This is my first time backing Xander for a long time, and he has been extremely trophy-shy in the last 2 years, but he is so good so often that he has to win one at some point.

Schauffele 12/1
Niemann 33/1
English 45/1
Ancer 80/1

Puerto Rico Open

Toggle Spoiler

For a minor PGA Tour event attracting weak fields opposite the WGC, this is a notorious tournament. Scene of Tony Finau's only career win, it boasts the 'Puerto Rico curse' in which none of its winners have ever gone on to win a PGA Tour event in the mainland USA. Some proper numpties have fluked a win here in the past, notably back to back wins for someone called 'Michael Bradley' who has never been heard from since, and also a win for Martin Trainer a few years ago who is surely the worst golfer ever to win on the PGA Tour. The field this year is bolstered by a few relatively big name (but well underpriced) Europeans who didn't make the WGC, such as Poulter, Wallace and Pieters, looking to harvest some sweet Ryder Cup qualifying points and/or earn their American card with a win. These star-free markets are always a journey to say the least, but I've found six that look like strong value.

An 28/1
Pendrith 55/1
Burgoon 70/1
Hossler 80/1
Garnett 125/1
Baker 250/1

How are Atletico not favourites for tonight

Neutral venue and they're shite. 5-0 Chelsea.

You’ll be playing the same back 3 as you were 3 seasons ago who got battered by an average Barcelona team. I’d be wanting at least 7/2 to go anywhere near them.

Had a sneaky wager on Grillo for Puerto Rico @ 16/1.

Good luck - he wasn't far off for me but went with Ben An instead.

If anyone wants the 2021 Cheltenham Guide from Wetherbys, DM me your email.

I get it every year.

This one: https://bettrendsshop.co.uk/weatherb...ng-guide-2021/

I've just seen Brice Garnett and he looks nothing like I imagined.

In my mind he's a fat giant of a man who chews tobacco and loves the American 'Frat' life.

He's not even 6 foot ffs.

Most golfers look like they should do. Exhibit A: Ted Potter.

That is a strong head shape.

Four consectuive bogies on day one has cost me and Emiliano greatly.

Nothing from the WGC (they are often awkward bastard tournaments, god knows what the computer will make of the Matchplay in a few weeks) but a full place for Garnett in Puerto Rico brings me back 19.50 from 20pts, so not too bad. Also keeps the year's ROI above 100% from 63 golfers backed.

The next few tournaments stateside are great: Bay Hill next week (was epic last year just as lockdown drew in), The Players, Honda which is fun, and then the Matchplay which I am all over like a rash. Euro regular events are back next week too which are often a happy hunting ground for the computer.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baz

If anyone wants the 2021 Cheltenham Guide from Wetherbys, DM me your email.

I get it every year.

This one: https://bettrendsshop.co.uk/weatherb...ng-guide-2021/

---

Avoiding Elliot runners like the plague now

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Just the one event this week (European Tour doesn't start again until next week) but it's a good one, Arnie's old event at Bay Hill. Tiger in his pomp was more or less unbeatable here (8 wins) but of late it's turned into a bit of a graveyard for American players, with forriners winning each of the last five editions, most recently Tyrrell Hatton's win last year in brutal conditions. I'm backing that to change this time around. It seems to be one the top yanks dislike for some reason and of their top boys, only perennial villains DeChambeau and Reed appear here, but McIlroy, Hatton and Hovland among others do set up a decent field overall. Unusually, I've decided to swerve all the top players as there isn't much value and they may be in a mode to tune up for the Players next week. Instead, a sextet of middle of the road contenders for your delectation.

Zalatoris 40/1
Conners 80/1
Gooch 80/1
W.Clark 100/1
Howell III 150/1
Champ 150/1

all e/w

All in on McIlroy.

I hope you're right but he ain't got it just now.

The closest one was Bryson but he ain't got it either. Cue a McIlroy/Bryson playoff 12 strokes clear.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Waffdon

Avoiding Elliot runners like the plague now

---

Henry De Bromhead will be the happiest man in Ireland. Good on him

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

I hope you're right but he ain't got it just now.

The closest one was Bryson but he ain't got it either. Cue a McIlroy/Bryson playoff 12 strokes clear.

---

:baz:

It will be fun seeing him choke over the next few days though.

Victory March
16:30 Dundalk tomorrow
14/1 EW

The computer strikes again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manc

10st 5lbs. He's going to absolutely fly round.

---

Did you see what he’s just done with 11st10 against decent horses? He’s going to absolutely piss it

Trevor Hemmings strikes again. There is no stopping Cloth Cap.

What's everyone's picks for UFC tonight?

Israel in round 2

Rory. :cool:

Bryson and Spieth choking in front of American fans here would be incredible.

How’s our lad Conners looking?

Tied third right now, 2 off the lead.

No way he's beating these players, place would be great.

I'm annoyed as Zalatoris was cruising towards a place and then dunked one on 17.

He needs to snap out of this little wobble he's having.

If Corey can't manage it I'd love to see Westwood do it.

That was a MASSIVE eagle.

17 and 18 absolute graveyards today. -10 might be a playoff.

Another top, top shout though. :thbup:

Bit annoyed not to pick Bryson as I knew he was the choice from the short priced men, but I didn't trust his form at the 12/1 price.

Still 7pts profit and takes us back above +100% ROI on the year so far.

Thought Bryson was going to miss that parr putt.

Only in golf can the winner thank first his sponsors, then the spirit of Mister Palmer, and then a hospitalised cripple who sent him a text also invoking the spirit of Mister Palmer.

Glorious nonsense, and the nonsense only escalates with THE PLAYERS next week (their capitals, not mine).

Golf w/e 14 March

Toggle Spoiler

THE PLAYERS

The PGA Tour is a silly organisation in many respects. It is the richest and probably most powerful body in golf, but, thanks to its origins as basically a money grab by the top professionals fifty years ago (in a similar-ish way to darts's PDC), it does not actually run or have any control/influence over any of the four historic major championships. This has been a source of great pain to the PGA Tour and its marketing department over the years, and its response has been to try to elevate its own flagship event, THE PLAYERS, into the 'fifth major'. Simply writing the name of the tournament in all caps hasn't done the trick so in recent years their marketing job for THE PLAYERS has extended to somehow pretending it really is a major (it isn't), or even elevating its status above the real majors in their broadcasts and in-house statistical records. No one is fooled. Still, THE PLAYERS is indeed a great championship and Sawgrass is a very fine venue, boasting the famous 'Eye' island green 17th hole and many other fun ones on the way in. The field is as strong as they come and the winner earns a three-year exemption and a huge truck full of dollars. So why isn't THE PLAYERS a major? Well - and this is something that will always be lost on the PGA Tour - it's because this tournament is ultimately all about money, and the four real majors are about so much more.

(these odds from Bet365)

Rahm 16/1
Im 55/1
Conners 90/1
Todd 175/1
Harman 200/1
Grillo 200/1


Qatar Masters

A considerable tone shift from THE PLAYERS here as the European Tour returns with its first regular event in quite a while. It's also a return to golf that finishes earlier in the day, for those who like that pattern. Last year this was the last tournament before lockdown and it ended with a playoff that ran for about two hours. It's very hard to know what to expect here as a lot of the players have been off for weeks or months, which would normally not favour the computer, which relies on reversion to the mean (the mean, in this scenario, being all the market really has to go on). However, a bit of sprinkled form from the Middle East a few weeks back, and the UK golf ban giving many players fewer opportunities to 'find something' away from prying eyes, should give us a fighting chance. I would expect a couple of real long shots to get into the mix.

Otaegui 66/1
Janewattananond 100/1
Veerman 100/1
Migliozzi 110/1
van Driel 300/1
Tree 500/1

all e/w

I thought we might be on Jazz soon after his great day 2 & 3.

Jazz is mental at 100/1. Rahm feels like a bit of a 'fool me 83 times, shame on me' situation, but he's gone outside Dustin, Rory (?!) and Billy Beefcake now, whereas I've got him as #1 fav, so back to the well we go.

I reckon Betfair may have got wise to THE COMPUTER (give it its due) as they consistently price under what you post up now (whereas before they were more often than not better).

Betfair are offering 10 places as opposed to 8 though.

Ah, fair enough.

As Mahow says, partly depends on how many places they're paying out for. I tend to use Coral which pays at 7 places, but this week they've gone to 8 places and their odds are so shite that I had to change to Bet365 (also 8). I see Betfair are doing 10 places this week so that probably explains that.

They've shown no signs of getting wise to it yet (I would be able to tell if they were). You do get tighter markets with fewer inefficiencies, which tend to be the likes of the WGCs and the Masters with the more selective entry criteria. I am working on a model for the WGC Matchplay in a couple of weeks but we'll see if it works. Ryder Cup, christ knows. Lump on America, crack open a beer and enjoy the losses.

The most likely explanation for the computer's success remains that it's a lucky run, or else much cleverer people than me would have been on it years ago. But then sometimes you can be too clever.

Betfair also usually offer better odds for the American events. They're a little stingy with the European.

They still haven't put up the Qatar Masters though.

If Cheltenham’s cancelled cos of this equine herpesvirus outbreak, I mightn’t make it to 21st June. :face:

Betfair have the Qatar masters up now but the odds aren't great again, however they are doing 7 places over Bet365's 5 places.

Jazz at only 56 is a bit shit though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baz

If Cheltenham’s cancelled cos of this equine herpesvirus outbreak, I mightn’t make it to 21st June. :face:

---

Didn't a similar thing happen in 2019? Calm your fears.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry

Betfair have the Qatar masters up now but the odds aren't great again, however they are doing 7 places over Bet365's 5 places.

Jazz at only 56 is a bit shit though.

---

He is in to 66 now on 365 as well. I did think 100 was mental (though didn't notice 5 places, being a 365 virgin). This is why I do all the prep on Friday/Saturday and have it ready to whizz as soon as the markets open Monday lunchtime or so. Hope a few of you got on.

66 is about the right price for him so wouldn't take him shorter.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manc

Didn't a similar thing happen in 2019? Calm your fears.

---

Cheltenham has been in doubt for about five years running

If Conners could chip, we’d all be a bit richer.

No better Thursday feeling than logging on (no pun intended) for the early scores and seeing him up there with Westy again.

He actually made a water par and holed out with his second shot for eagle early on so quite lucky to be where he is.

Had a nibble on Paisely in Qatar. Strong start.

If I ever put Rahm up again, someone set the dogs on me.

I really do love the 17th hole here. I could happily watch a live stream of just that hole.

Playing a bit windmill crazy golf on that green today, but whatever, it's nice to see them have to actually think through their shot rather than just aim and fire like it is at most American courses.

Rahm reeling The Computer back in.

Rahm can do what he likes, an out-of-form Brian Harman compiling a cosy 67 for solo second on the first day of THE PLAYERS after I put him up at 200/1 is proof of supernatural forces I think.

Harman still doing well.

Rahm is in the mix.

This is shaping up too nicely right now.

Mon the Mig.

Also, for some reason Betfair allowed me to cash out of my Tree bet despite him being at +7 or something after yesterday.

Edit: Fuck the Frenchie Rozner. Place is still very nice with hopefully more to come in America later.

Guido winning that would have been beyond outrageous, so delighted with the place at that price. Had almost given up on it after two days.

I was sure he was going to a playoff at the very least.

Didn't think Rozner had a chance at the 1 putt.

I think Conners could win it.

Especially if he can get into the clubhouse at 13 under.

Westwood could struggle later if the greens dry up.

Edit: He's fucked it with the missed eagle & birdie putts on the 16th.

I'd completely given up on him tbh. What a day.

Shame Im had such a rotten R3 because he was great as well today.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

I'd completely given up on him tbh. What a day.

---

Yeah, I thought he was gone but he's had a storming day which could have been so much better.

Looks like it's Thomas' to lose now but potentially 3 places (Rahm is shitting his pants again) is on the cards.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kikó

Shame Im had such a rotten R3 because he was great as well today.

---

He fucked it on the back 9 yesterday. He was doing alright at +1 but went for +4 on his final 8 holes.

Harman seems like he wants a nibble. Go on lad.

Rahm is infuriating to watch.

He's constantly fluctuating between "he's fucked it" and "he's right back into it".

Justin Thomas needs to find some water.

Even though I won't get the winner, I can't remember sizing up a tournament as well as this. They are/were all set up to have a sniff at it.

Masters again soon for some failure, sigh.

Harman with a glorious tee shot on the 17th.

He could be in with a chance if he puts it in.

Updated 2021 record after places for Conners and Harman there:

81 golfers backed, 3 wins, 15 places
150pts staked (10 per tournament)
316.09pts returned - profit 166.09pts
ROI: +110.73%

Another cracking weekend.

Thanks again Jim!

Going from that to the Magical Kenya Open is going to be a wild ride so enjoy the good times, is all I can say.

Thanks Jim. I should start putting some real money on this so I can change your strike rate.

P/L by player

Toggle Spoiler

Na 79.20
Casey 48.00
Hatton 28.80
Conners 23.50
Migliozzi 21.00
Harman 19.50
Garnett 18.00
Smith 12.75
Rose 9.00
Simpson 2.80
Garcia 2.80
Finau 2.60
Cantlay 0.80
McIlroy 0.40
Day -0.28
Els -0.50
Rodgers -0.50
McCarthy -0.50
Ventura -0.50
Frittelli -0.50
Schwartzel -0.50
van Driel -0.50
Tree -0.50
D.Lee -0.60
Huh -0.80
Moore -0.80
Dahmen -0.80
Horschel -1.00
Piercy -1.00
Perez -1.00
List -1.00
Bramlett -1.00
Coetzee -1.00
Rock -1.00
Brehm -1.00
Kitayama -1.00
Kanaya -1.00
Vegas -1.00
Hall -1.00
Baker -1.00
Howell III -1.00
Todd -1.00
Grillo -1.00
Schenk -1.50
Hossler -1.50
Muñoz -2.00
Bradley -2.00
Scheffler -2.00
Niemann -2.00
Ancer -2.00
An -2.00
Pendrith -2.00
Burgoon -2.00
Im -2.00
Janewattananond -2.00
Veerman -2.00
Tringale -2.18
Reed -3.00
Fowler -3.00
Zalatoris -3.00
Otaegui -3.00
D.Johnson -4.00
Champ -4.00
Gooch -4.00
W.Clark -4.00
Matsuyama -4.00
DeChambeau -4.00
Schauffele -4.00
English -5.00
Rahm -7.60

Rahm and me are going to have to have a chat at some point.

15 points profit from Migliozzi, Harman and Conners. Thanks a lot. :thbup:

There’s gonna be 4 runner races at Cheltenham at this rate

Aye. :cab:


Skybet doing the £10 “back as cash if your horse loses” for the Supreme (first race..)

Paddy Power doing a similar offer, only they’ve already said they’ll be doing it for the first race everyday (Sky usually scrap it) but it’s only £5. Need £10 in your account though, it seems.

Remember to do WIN only so you get your full stake back.

And don’t fall for any of the “money back if your horse finishes second” SCAMS.

I’ve done Ballyadam on Sky and Soaring Glory on Paddy Power, because I think Appreciate It (I’ve made a spreadsheet to tell me all the winners) will definitely win but not worth the tiny payout. ��

I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baz

Aye. :cab:


Skybet doing the £10 “back as cash if your horse loses” for the Supreme (first race..)

Paddy Power doing a similar offer, only they’ve already said they’ll be doing it for the first race everyday (Sky usually scrap it) but it’s only £5. Need £10 in your account though, it seems.

Remember to do WIN only so you get your full stake back.

And don’t fall for any of the “money back if your horse finishes second” SCAMS.

I’ve done Ballyadam on Sky and Soaring Glory on Paddy Power, because I think Appreciate It (I’ve made a spreadsheet to tell me all the winners) will definitely win but not worth the tiny payout. ��

---

Paddy Power are just giving it to everybody. Ladbrokes have a £5 free bet but it’s impossible to do any ew yankee bets unless you have money on your account as the system calculates it weird.

Golf w/e 21 March

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Honda Classic

The last stop on the Florida Swing, this was a particularly enjoyable event last year, one of the last gasps before the pandemic struck, and was won by Sungjae Im. This year will be a little more subdued with all the big names having the week off after THE PLAYERS and the great events that preceded it, with most returning for the Matchplay in Austin next week. As a result this week's field is not the strongest by PGA Tour standards but offers a ticket to the Masters for those not qualified, and sometimes this is where the computer can strike. PGA National is a pretty fun layout featuring the so-called 'Bear Trap' holes towards the end. Wind can often play a part.

Tringale 33/1
Huh 80/1
Long 90/1
Hoag 100/1
McCarthy 100/1
Lebioda 300/1

Magical Kenya Open

Like most national opens, this is an old event but this will only be its second time having European Tour status. This year, for the sake of filling up the schedule, it's immediately followed (with a Tuesday start!) by a second tournament at the same course (I'll do that one next week after we've seen the first one). The whole thing, from the name to the venue to everything else about it, feels a bit like a fever dream and the field is a bizarre mashup of various decent to low level Europeans, a batch of 18 Kenyan golfers, and a smattering of low world ranked players from other African countries. I've gone for a pair of big-hitting saffas as my main selections, and smaller stakes advised on five other longer shots.

Burmester 35/1
Nienaber 45/1
Vincent 70/1
Meronk 100/1
Kruyswijk 175/1
Enoch 200/1
Tree 350/1

£78.50 up after day one of Cheltenham. Not bad.

Not bad at all. Galvin pulling it out the fire saved me a loss (thanks Goshen).

Plenty of value flying around tommorrow. Queen Mother should be a cracker.

I should be more up really because of Vintage Clouds but my bet was diluted down to 10/1 with extra places. :sick:

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Had the exact same four fold but with Happygolucky instead of Appreciate It for £350. Gutting. Only deposited £15 all of which was on bet365 but only just about broke even there. Tomorrow looks like a favourites day again (yuck) but I’m on the following:

Bravemansgame W/O fav, Tiger Roll W/O fav, Sir Gerhard W/O fav, Blue Sari and Ibleo to be placed @ 170/1
Bob Olinger, Easyland, Sir Gerhard, Sporting John W/O fav and Nube Negra W/O fav @ 260/1
King’s Temptation, First Flow, Dysart Diamond, Duc Des Genierevs, Ramillies EW Yankee for millions
Sporting John, Ibleo, Nube Negra, Blue Sari EW Yankee

Then a few variations of the above. Quite like the look of Entoucas and Grand Roi

TIGER ROLL :hail:

Charlie Deutsch wants shooting for that ride he gave Ibleo. Absolute tosser.

That Entoucas was saving the day there. Fuck sake. Blue Sari would have came close too if he didn’t fall. We go again.

Yeah write off today.

A decent win in Huntingdon saved my balance.

I put a fiver on Cristal Palace Cat at Kempton and Stevie G which put me back up. Tomorrow looks fun, all the big priced places. Mon the super yankees :drool:

If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manc

I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.

---

As expectedly, Sky is no longer risk free. Horse must finish top 4 for money back. Scammers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel

If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

---

He has 20k just chilling in his account balance, too. Mad man

I like the amount of people questioning his decision to cash out by saying he should have done a £350k lay of the reverse result. If he had another £350k he should have let the bet run.

Tremendous cash out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Golf w/e 21 March

Toggle Spoiler

Honda Classic

The last stop on the Florida Swing, this was a particularly enjoyable event last year, one of the last gasps before the pandemic struck, and was won by Sungjae Im. This year will be a little more subdued with all the big names having the week off after THE PLAYERS and the great events that preceded it, with most returning for the Matchplay in Austin next week. As a result this week's field is not the strongest by PGA Tour standards but offers a ticket to the Masters for those not qualified, and sometimes this is where the computer can strike. PGA National is a pretty fun layout featuring the so-called 'Bear Trap' holes towards the end. Wind can often play a part.

Tringale 33/1
Huh 80/1
Long 90/1
Hoag 100/1
McCarthy 100/1
Lebioda 300/1

Magical Kenya Open

Like most national opens, this is an old event but this will only be its second time having European Tour status. This year, for the sake of filling up the schedule, it's immediately followed (with a Tuesday start!) by a second tournament at the same course (I'll do that one next week after we've seen the first one). The whole thing, from the name to the venue to everything else about it, feels a bit like a fever dream and the field is a bizarre mashup of various decent to low level Europeans, a batch of 18 Kenyan golfers, and a smattering of low world ranked players from other African countries. I've gone for a pair of big-hitting saffas as my main selections, and smaller stakes advised on five other longer shots.

Burmester 35/1
Nienaber 45/1
Vincent 70/1
Meronk 100/1
Kruyswijk 175/1
Enoch 200/1
Tree 350/1

---

What a first round in Kenya. Everyone on -3 or better (although a couple are still playing) with Meronk leading the pack at -6 right now.

How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.

Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by niko_cee

How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.

---

This one?

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https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/03...6056145054.jpg

I think you've just described how fractional odds and accumulators work. 13*11*5*26*5.5 = 102245 * 5 = 511225

He took a £250k cash out, and the remaining leg fell at the first. Stunning.

I was just multiplying all the fractions together and getting a significantly different outcome, I didn't know you added 1 on to each denominator.

Yeah fractional odds are a load of nonsense. Not as bad as US odds, though, which continue to melt my brain each time I encounter them.

I come across US odds A LOT in the course of researching golf stuff and I don't know how they can be considered a superpower while using them. It's absolutely mental.

PLUS FIVE HUNDRED, MAN!

They're a steaming pile of shit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manc

Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

---

Good when it works out for you though.

I need Royal Kahala in the next for £180 off 80p. I’ll be pretty gutted if it comes in with that little amount put on

Denny McCarthy has absolutely shat his pants on the last two holes.

Was looking decent for a place tomorrow with an outside chance of winning but he's fucked it hard.

He's meant to have ability but he never really impresses me in practice, he got done by the Bear Trap™. Tringale is well in with a shout though if conditions are anything like this tomorrow.

Pleased to say that after blackout for the first three days, the final day of the Magical Kenya Open will be broadcast tomorrow morning as the TV equipment has finally cleared customs at the port of Mombasa. It's those little things that make the Magical Kenya Open so magical.

It's amazing how much Wise struggled since the 6th onwards.

Would have been horrible to watch had The Computer thrown his name out.

From -14 and looking good for a win to just about holding on to a -7.

A place/dead heat for Kruyswijk depending on the places your bookmaker offers which is lovely.

Betfair offered 7 places so he just sneaks in for a full place but it also means that Burmester just missed out on a dead heat.

Both of the dozy fuckers bogeyed the last, although Burmy I think would have been denied the full place by Gonnet who I thought had retired about 7 years ago.

Still a 175/1 place for Kruyswijk even at my stake of 0.4pts is a profit on that tournament, somehow.

I'm in profit across both tournaments with my stake.

If Tringale can go on to do something special and McCarthy recover after his back 9 last night that would be lovely.

Aaron Wise with a 4 putt for a triple bogey to take himself from -10 to -7 and bring those on -6 (like Denny) into play was a heroic move.

Think he's getting a part place with that monster birdie putt at 18. What a scummy way of making a weekend profit from triple figure warriors.

Aaron Wise is desperate to see Denny McCarthy place.

Edit: Annoyingly Tringale missed a birdie at the 18th which would have given me a part place.

Computer this week returned 30.15pts from 20pts (one could have done better than that with bolder staking than mine).

This week is going to be an absolute mess as we have the Kenya Savannah Open or something running Tuesday to Friday (fuck knows), and the WGC Matchplay starting Wednesday which is one of my favourite events of the year (matchplay rules) but obviously all normal strokeplay betting norms are out the window so it'll be a bit of a voyage of discovery for the computer. Hopefully get something up for both tomorrow night.

Amazing stuff Jim. The computer is a thing of beauty.

Kenya Savannah Classic

This tournament may have a different, less magical name than the Magical Kenya Open, but it's essentially the same tournament again with almost exactly the same field. What is different is the odds: pretty much anyone who had a decent week last week has been slashed, with those who struggled drifting like a barge. With this tournament playing Tuesday to Friday (I'm really not sure why), you'll need to get on quickly but the computer laps up this sort of thing: reversion to the mean should be rife, in both directions. If there are double-contenders we won't have them, but here are six to play.

Otaegui 45/1
De Jager 66/1
Angles 70/1
Besseling 70/1
Lieser 125/1
Cockerill 175/1

WGC Matchplay this evening

These DJ gambles will be interesting to see how it pans out.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/book...-stable/480295

My tipster actually tipped Perfect Predator at 7/1 and then when doing the write up noticed the gamble, so I also have a trixie for Notnow Seamus, Blood Eagle and Perfect Predator where £8 returns £678 so I’m fully onboard with the fix. Also have a single for The Gold Bug at 6/1 and reverse forecast for the 2 in the same race - Gold Bug and Getaman. Hopefully I’m well off by 4:30.

WGC Matchplay

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This is always a very enjoyable break from the grind of weekly strokeplay and has all the sport's top names at a quirky, fun venue in Austin. The 64 players are drawn into 16 groups of 4, the first three days are a round robin. The 16 group winners qualify, which can force some pretty gun-slinging sudden death playoff scenarios on the Friday. The last 16 then play in four knockout rounds with the final on Sunday night. The draw is out and inevitably there are some great matchups. My favourite groups are the all-European one (Hatton, Westy, Garcia, Wallace), Group 2 which features 'JT' up against three true match play grinders, and of course Bryson's date with the far-flung trio of Tommy Fleetwood, Siwoo Kim and rank outsider Antoine Rozner.

I've found it very difficult to convert the computer's normal strategies into match play as, obviously, it's a very different game, one in which you can win by being bad as long as your opponent is worse. I have used Sky Bet odds here, who pay out each way on making the QFs, which is pretty generous in my book. I have four each way selections to win, and some side bets.

Each way: Collin Morikawa 20/1. I haven't been on Collin for a while but I'm returning to him this week at his Matchplay debut. This will be a good test of his Ryder Cup credentials for later in the year. He's received a fairly kind draw in Horschel, Homa and Poston (although anyone is capable of beating anyone in this format) and with his dead straight ball flight and consistent striking I fancy him to tame some of the scoreable holes on this course.

Each way: Sungjae Im 30/1. Sungjae's putting has been pretty hazy this year but his striking immaculate and if he finds it this week - starting from a very conquerable group involving Victor Perez, Marc Leishman and Russell Henley - I fancy him for a strong run at the title.

Each way: Corey Conners 50/1. For a third start in a row I'm backing the Bank of Conners, which has paid out handsomely in Bay Hill and Sawgrass, and I fancy could do the same in Austin after a week's rest. He has a fun and gnarly group with Spieth and Fitzpatrick, but should he get through that he will be in fine shape.

Each way: Robert Macintyre 125/1. This may seem bold, as he is drawn in the same group as the world number one. However, although he won this a few years ago, I'm not convinced that Dustin is terribly arsed about it; he'll be more focused on his upcoming Masters defence, and at the best of times DJ is a golfer motivated largely by money, which he will earn here even if he crashes out early. This tournament often has a long odds international runner - names like Dubuisson, Tanihara and Bjerregaard come to mind from the past, and lefty Macintyre I fancy to have the fighting temperament for match play and boost his own Ryder Cup claims.

Bezuidenhout, Ancer & Zalatoris all to win their groups @ 50.57/1.

Finalists Morikawa and Matsuyama: 200/1

Non-American winner: 10/11.

Corales Puntacana

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No writeup to speak of for this except that we already had this tournament in the same season, which is weird. Anyway, it's an opposite field drudge fest in the Dominican Republic, and here's what the computer thinks (5 places with Bet 365)

Howell III 33/1
Dahmen 50/1
P.Perez 75/1
Stuard 140/1
Merritt 150/1
Goosen 250/1 (bit of a blast from the past, to say the least)

I've followed on the group winners.

I've only just realised that Im and Bob Mac would meet in the last 16, but whatever.

Add Scheffler in place of one if that clash worries you.

I have a 5 fold with a small stake on Matsuyama, Bez, Ancer, Morikawa and Im to win their matches tomorrow as well as a larger triple of Matsuyama, Ancer and Morikawa.

Bob Mac taking down Na was pretty epic, as was Mr Large getting done in by Rozner, gallic shrugging his way down the fairways in his central casting van de Velde visor.

What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.

---

Without looking at the course there are probably a low number of hazards (and they possibly don't come into play often), easy to read greens, a low rough, wide fairways etc etc.

Lack of wind helps too.

Tee position and pin location are probably very favourable meaning players can be aggressive too.

Generally the four things that defend a course against par are design, firmness, wind and pins. Don't think Karen's had any of the above these two weeks. The other end of the spectrum, you go to one of the tougher Open layouts, or a US Open and they'll usually have all four in abundance.

I know nothing about golf, but surely if a load of people are -15 to -25 below par, then the par is wrong.

Par is set for the ordinary competent player, rather than top class touring pros. It's also almost meaningless.

It's just the number of shots you're expected to take reaching the green + two putts.

I've also got £15 on Lanto Griffin @ 2.63.

With the way Rory has been playing lately (including yesterday) it's free money.

Also, lol at Justin Thomas.

Edit: Rory 3 up after 3 holes. Free money indeed.

Ancer being 2-0 up after the 14th only needing a draw to go through but losing the next 3 holes (before tying the last) to lose 1-0 is seriously annoying.

He better not lose his playoff.

Edit: :moop:

This is such a crapshoot. Great watch though. I'm now rooting for Rahm for my so far quite auspicious fantasy team.

Will do a silly eightfold tomorrow morning for interest.

Yeah I've enjoyed watching it so far.

Oh and MacIntrye :cool:

Get fucked DJ.

He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

---

Na didn't even have to "claim" a win on that hole either. He knew he'd take him down.

Bob McIntyre 😎

If you used a bookie that pays out for last 8 (Sky Bet did) then he only needs to beat Monsieur Perez in this game for an each way place.

Mad how basically every top name has been knocked out, very different form of the game this, brings the madheads like Poulter and Bubba right into play. My approach wasn't quite right in the end but still got Bob running.

I've put £5 on Fleetwood, Garcia, MacIntyre, Rahm, Harman & Spieth to win their matches today.

American golf coverage really is horseshit.

They missed MacIntyre's insane drive on the 18th yesterday and it looks like they've not got Tommy Fleetwood's hole in one today.

Edit: Seems they did get the Fleetwood hole in one.

I’m on Povetkin to beat Whyte by any means. 11/4 Just because I don’t like Dillian Whyte.

I didn't until he went on Celebrity Masterchef. He comes across as a nice bloke.

Big Bob :\

Perez is 6 under or something, unbelievable display.

Speaking of unbelievable displays, little Brian Harman is tearing it up.

4 holes down and he's now birdied 7 in a row to lead by 2.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

I've only just realised that Im and Bob Mac would meet in the last 16, but whatever.

Add Scheffler in place of one if that clash worries you.

---

:moop:

'mon Dahmen.

Oh and in the matchplay Scheffler/Kuchar is being played at a far too leisurely pace.

Dahmen :cool:

The Computer strikes again.

Not doing the star spangled as a winning song but we can have a nice upbeat Joel tune.

2021 record now 4 and 17 from 110, and RoI +104.12%

I've been dipping in and out of the WGC and Scheffler is seriously fucking annoying.

They need to tell him to stop spending about half an hour for each shot.

Pace of play is the biggest issue in the game, but especially the PGA Tour do nothing about it because they're player-run and scared of pissing off their pampered pros who like to take their time with money on the line.

Certain players (JB Holmes, Jason Day, sometimes Spieth) are absolutely brutal for it. DJ on the greens as well, horrible to watch.

Scheffler and Kuchar took close to 4 and a half hours for their semi-final which to me seems mental (I don't know if that's in an acceptable range but the commentators were moaning too) considering there was only one other group playing on the course and they were 2 holes ahead at least.

For a 2 ball in matchplay it's absurd (matchplay is quicker as everyone doesn't hole out). The excuse is they're tired or whatever, I don't buy it. They're just well used to playing as slowly as they like with no penalty. You won't see it at Augusta in a couple of weeks, as there are no greens books.

McGinley loves sticking the boot onto the Americans.

Texas Open

Only the one tournament this week which is the national open of the lone star state. This is always a bit of a low key event, often coming in the lead up to the Masters, as it is again this year. Augusta's next week (I am working on some finely honed selections for that this year, sigh) and most of the top names give this a miss, but others prefer to tune up on the course: DJ is here, as are leading Texans Spieth and Scheffler. The course I always find fairly uninteresting, but what it does offer up is a final last-gasp Masters invite for the winner, and those players are who the computer is looking at this week.

Steele 33/1
Davis 50/1
Howell III 55/1
N.Taylor 125/1
Hoag 175/1
D.Lee 200/1

DJ w/d so hope they don't get slashed. I'm not changing them.

Thanks for another win Jim, lets hope DJ pulling out gives the computer the edge. Odds only look to have been cut on the favourites.

I found myself reading Kezman's wikipedia page and it's seems he fancies himself as a bit of a Jimmy.

Kezman found his calling by consistently predicting the top 3 performing golfers in any given tournament. In a recent interview he stated “Although I enjoy the winnings, it’s just a reminder that form is temporary and class is permanent”.

If class was permanent then Jack Nicklaus would still be up there. Try again, Mateja.

The computer vs Kezman, let's go.

Palmer for the Masters? :eyemouth:

I'm doing my Masters work at the moment. Doing (for my own benefit but you might as well have it too) a full Grand National style field preview. Here's RP's line: Palmer 125/1. Bit too vanilla as a golfer to do well at Augusta. If he ever fluked a major, could see it being a US Open.

Shoddy week in Texas, but Masters BUMPER preview will be posted up probably tomorrow morning depending on who wins this later.

Kempton 13:45
Meng Tian

Wins

The Masters

The best (or maybe second/third best) week in golf is back around quickly after last year's wet, foggy, delayed November edition. The spring light and flowers will be back, but there is always a cloud here, and if it isn't Covid this year, it's the backdrop of political tension in Georgia following legislation to change voting laws there, which is widely perceived as an attempt to restrict the black vote (Georgia went blue in November). Many from outside sport have called on the PGA Tour to remove the Masters from Augusta; those people clearly don't know anything about how golf works, as this tournament has nothing to do with the PGA Tour and is owned and run by Augusta National Golf Club, an organisation which hardly seems likely to remove the tournament from Augusta National Golf Club. Still, it's possible that there may be some kind of protests and/or disruption, although I doubt it - they take zero shit at ANGC.

On the course, all the big names are here as usual along with the qualifying invitational field; most players qualify by being in the world's top 50 or by winning a PGA Tour event in the last year. Dustin Johnson defends, while an out-of-sorts Rory McIlroy will once again be looking to complete the career grand slam with a win. There are 18 former winners in the field; Tiger Woods is of course missing as he recovers from his, shall we say, mysterious car crash last month. Another notable absentee is Rickie Fowler, who has failed to qualify, and so misses his first major since 2010.

We are now back on the normal major schedule, so this is the first of the four this year: the others will be the PGA at Kiawah Island, the US Open at Torrey Pines, and finally the Open at Sandwich.

Main selections (all odds from Skybet, ew 11 places)

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Jon Rahm 11/1 ew to win
Patrick Cantlay 16/1 ew to win
Tony Finau 28/1 ew to win
Joaquin Niemann 45/1 ew to win
Carlos Ortiz 125/1 ew to win
Lanto Griffin 200/1 ew to win

Side bets

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Stewart Cink to finish top 20: 8/1 (Betfair)
Sungjae Im Top Asian: 5/4
Carlos Ortiz Top Debutant: 5/2
Ian Poulter Top Englishman: 14/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top South African: 5/2
Robert MacIntyre Top Left hander: 4/1
Sergio Garcia Top past champion: 8/1

Course guide, for those who haven't watched / haven't taken it in before

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1. Pretty vanilla par 4 but with trouble lurking if you miss the fairway, and a variety of pins. Aiming for the middle is never a bad play. If you get greedy your round gets off to a bad start.
2. Downhill par 5. The tee shot is important. A good one gives you a strong chance at birdie or eagle. Miss left and you're in the shit. The Sunday right funnel pin is great fun.
3. Short par 4 with a devilishly tough green. You can birdie this if you play it sensibly and make a putt, but you can also get into trouble if you bite too hard.
4. Tough par 3. You always take a par on this and 6.
5. Dullish par 4 but with a big mound at the front of the green which makes life interesting.
6. Another tough long par 3 with a big slope on the green.
7. A good drive gives you a strong chance of birdie here, particularly to the front pins. However if you get in the trees you can shoot anything.
8. Torrid uphill par 5. The toughest of the par fives, I would guess. Played very long last year, but birdies still in play.
9. Again a tee shot between trees which then opens out for the approach. The green has three tiers and tilts sharply from back to front. Spin the ball too much and you can end up rolling back 40 yards down the hill to a bogey-laden grave.
10. The start of the back nine and an incredibly hard hole. The vast middle bunker reins in the big hitters, while there is desperate trouble left and right off the tee. Also a very undulating green. Par a great score here.
11. Traditionally the hardest hole on the course. Tee shot is threaded through trees and then water lurks front left of the green. Many will bail out into 'Larry Mize country', the swale front right that avoids the H2O but still gives you a nasty up and down to make your par.
12. Golden Bell, the short par 3 where dreams go to die. The correct shot is middle between the bunkers all four days, but so many are suckered to a watery grave, and if you go long into the flowerbeds, good luck.
13. Azalea, one of the best holes in all of golf. Tee shot can be missed left (stream) or right (trees). If you hit a good one you have a fairly simple mid iron in and possible eagle chance. If you don't, a large number beckons. This hole favours the right to left draw shape (or fade for lefties), which is often (misleadingly in my view) extrapolated to the whole course favouring right to left players.
14. A par 4 with no bunkers. The defence is in the fiercely sloping green. The back left Sunday pin is a nightmare and tests your lag putting.
15. The last par five, with history of great drama, from Seve going marine in '86 to Nicklaus's 'life in the old bear yet' eagle the same year and Garcia seizing control with eagle in '17. Pond in front of the green and another pond long, with another tricky undulating green.
16. Dramatic par 3 with funnel pin Sunday leading to holes in one and all sorts of excitement. The water short left is rarely in play but still worries the eye. This was the scene of Tiger's famous chip in 2005.
17. This used to have 'Ike's Tree', a big obstacle which Eisenhower wanted cut down. He never got his wish but a storm did the job a few years ago. It's a tricky approach shot to a difficult green, four is always a good score here.
18. If you avoid the trees right and the famous bunker on the left, this isn't a difficult hole, but you have to find the right part of the green or life becomes very tricky.

Runners and riders verdicts

Toggle Spoiler

D.Johnson 7/1. Reigning champ, and world number one. Of late, he has had some dodgy driving days and some equally indifferent ones with the putter. Slightly odd to commit to the Texas Open on Friday and then pull out of it Monday. I'm not taking him at these odds, even though his game is a cheat code when dialled in.

DeChambeau 9/1. Even if the computer rated his chances, I couldn't possibly spend 4 days of the Masters, such a pleasant time of year, wanting this cunt to win. Luckily, the computer absolutely does not rate his chances. No form around here at all - my theory, as stated last time, is that without the greens books (used on Tour but banned/non-existent at Augusta) he can't work out the putting surfaces.

Spieth 9/1. Cut dramatically in to single figures off the back of his comeback win in Texas, his first for four years. Back in form he may be, and great record at Augusta he may have, but these odds are absolutely dreadful. Computer has him at, like, 30s. Swerve hard.

Thomas 10/1. I quite fancy him (not in that way, he'll be pleased to learn) after some improved form of late and a fine win at THE PLAYERS, but he always has an unexpected shocker in him. A pretty likely winner but I've just argued myself out of taking him and in favour of taking the next guy.

Rahm 11/1. The computer adores him always (makes him favourite for this), he is unquestionably a great player, and yet whenever I back him it ends in failure. He has also had a baby over the weekend and named it Kepa Cahill Rahm which suggests that even his child's name is an attempt to troll me into backing him. And you know what? It's going to work. There is no escape.

McIlroy 14/1. McMince has been struggling of late, mincing around the course with small dick energy rather than his usual throbbing boner. The focus is usually on him here as he bids to complete the Grand Slam, but this time he's more under the radar. Has just begun working with English coach Pete Cowen. Sometimes the biggest prize comes when you least expect it. I just think it might be a hair too soon.

Cantlay 16/1. Miserable Pat Cant has a dodgy back, akin to Ledley King's knee - he has to have 4 hours of massage or something before every round. His game, though, is undeniably all-round fantastic and he's been in strong form all season. Computer thinks him a stronger shot than 16/1.

Schauffele 18/1. Has lost his way a little in the last couple of months and lacks a bit of killer instinct at the best of times.

Koepka 22/1. Wasn't in the field when I started doing this and may yet pull out. Just off surgery and I keep seeing pictures of him proposing on a beach. Can't see him winning this.

Morikawa 25/1. Lovely straight hitter, perhaps too straight for this course where you sometimes have to sneak it around corners to dodge trees or find pins. Not sure he yet has the nous for Augusta.

Reed 25/1. His ball-striking has been pretty dodgy for a while now as he bounces from one cheating scandal to the next. His mental wife and her secret twitter account @useGolfFACTS seem to do most of the hard PR yards. I kind of want him to win and so lock up a Ryder Cup place, as the universe needs him there with all his team mates hating him. 2018 champion but I doubt he'll double up this year.

Hovland 28/1. Copy-paste from Morikawa, but instead of shot shape his kryptonite is short game.

Finau 28/1. I'm backing Tony. You'll just have to trust me on this. He's going to win a tournament one day, so why not the biggest one of the lot? You can't be as good at golf as he is and not win eventually. Why not here? He contended in 2019 and the year before with a broken rib or something. Putting always the question mark with him.

Westwood 28/1. It's a pity, as Lee has had multiple runs here and I'm normally bang up for giving him a shot each way given this course has such an experience tariff. But this year he's played too well and his odds are too short. Next year!

Simpson 30/1. Not had it this year and I can't be doing with the God Squad generally.

Smith 30/1. I love this guy and his stupid mullet, but he's a fraction skinny here. Think I had a place off him at big odds one year, a rare Augusta success for me.

Berger 30/1. DB straight vibin. Computer rates his game for this. I have my slight doubts over whether his temperament lasts the four days of a major.

Casey 30/1. Mr Cool Beans and Johnny Long Socks have already produced one victory for me this year. Computer hates him, though, at this price, which I find surprising as he's in solid form and has done well around here before, but who am I to argue with the big man upstairs.

Im 30/1. Love Sungjae, plays every week and doesn't give a fuck. Tied second last time with Smith, not sure he'll repeat that.

Matsuyama 33/1. I've been off the Hideki cocaine train for a while now, and am not ready to jump back on yet. Strikes it like Godzilla but normally hands about 3-4 shots back to the field with the putter.

Scheffler 33/1. Computer doesn't like him for this, and the computer is normally a huge fan of his, so it's a pass from me.

Hatton 33/1. I backed him here last year which was a big miss. Computer isn't too down on him but I've not seen much in the majors yet. Five top tens, none of them here. We'll revisit.

Fitzpatrick 33/1. Everything points to him being good around Augusta. As yet, in six appearances, he has not been. I'd want 50s and rock hard greens to be tempted. Perhaps a more likely candidate for Sandwich in July.

Fleetwood 33/1. I have a bit of a timeform squiggle against Tommy's name unfortunately. Don't trust him under pressure.

Garcia 35/1. Former winner, striking it nicely at the moment, and putting with his eyes closed. A good finish could propel him towards the Ryder Cup team, but computer not buying it.

Day 40/1. Slow-moving Aussie sicknote who should have won here in the early to mid 2010s, but I think it may now have passed him by.

Niemann 45/1. I wanted to back him last time before he tested positive for Covid, and he's on my hit list here again. Doe-eyed young wizard from Chile who has been in great form basically ever since that positive test and unlucky not to win somewhere. His first appearance here as a pro but he played it as an amateur in 2018. Computer very much on board.

Watson 50/1. Wrong-in-the-head dickcheese from Bagdad, Florida who has won this twice with a pink driver. Another member of the God Squad, as well as a member of the Golf Boys (never to be forgotten) - in fact, with Fowler having slid off the world and not qualified this year, he's the only Golf Boy left at the Masters. Went into the wilderness for a bit after inexplicably moving to use a pink Volvik ball. Now playing better, but not well enough.

Scott 50/1. Smooth-swinging, smooth-talking Aussie, unquestionably the best-looking man in golf and a former champion. Known for his sweet move and putting woes. Not this time.

Oosthuizen 50/1. Major champion and has nearly won here a couple of times, but the fact that a player as good as him has never won in America after all this time is a bit of an issue.

Rose 60/1. Avoiding JR like the plague. Dodgy back and no real form for some time now. Needs something to happen to make the Ryder Cup team. Bit touch and go in that regard.

Ancer 66/1. Faux-Mexican pocket rocket who was in the final pair with DJ in 2020 and buckled hard. Not yet a winner on tour and I'm not convinced by his bottle.

Conners 66/1. Canadian gorgeous ball-striker who has paid out handsomely for me recently, but 60/1 a bit light against this field. Putting is also a bit of a question mark.

Zalatoris 66/1. Young rising star who has impossibly thin legs (seriously, look at them). Qualified via world ranking even though he's not technically a full PGA Tour member yet. Unlikely to have played a round here before this week, so no play from me.

Horschel 66/1. I wondered why he was so long after recent big performances. It's because his record here is dreadful: never in the top 16.

Kuchar 70/1. Has come flying in from 100s. Well known for stiffing his Mexican caddie. Everyone seems to agree he's in the top five biggest pricks on Tour, along with Bryson and Grayson Murray.

Wallace 70/1. Was 150/1 when I first started working on this preview. A strong performance in Texas has halved his odds. Makes too many mistakes for my liking. Like many Europeans, will want some big Ryder Cup points here.

Kokrak 80/1. I can't stand his face.

Harman 80/1. Lefties go well here and Harman's in decent form, but 70/1 is too short, much like Harman is, both in height and driving distance. Mike Weir winning in 2003 is a comp but, jeez, that was 2003. This shit was number one.

Homa 80/1. Love Max. Very nice man. Would want 100s to back him.

Molinari 80/1. Contended here two years ago, fucked it, and has disappeared ever since. Recently moved from London to LA - not quite sure why - and although there have been small signs of a return to form, it looks a tough gig to get back into the Ryder Cup team, where he won all five matches last time.

English 80/1. He's one of these good ol' southern boys who walks around chewing tobacco. Had a purple patch in autumn, not been so good since winning Hawaii in January.

Poulter 80/1. Good old Poults. You have to salute his longevity at this point, for someone who wins as little as he does and strolls around with the ego he has. Has made 14 of 15 cuts here, which is a pretty good record. He will want to be closer to the Ryder Cup team even though I think him an almost certain captain's pick.

Leishman 80/1. Had a horrible period post lockdown. Back to some mild form now but nothing to suggest a title run is in the offing here.

Lowry 80/1. Flattered to deceive since his Open win. I think he has the game to go well at Augusta, but not this time.

Wolff 90/1. Completely out of sorts recently. Having life problems, they say.

Perez 100/1. Clean-cut Frenchman now making waves on the world stage. His walk really annoys me for some reason. Seems a Ryder Cup certainty if he carries on this way. Don't trust his short game for Augusta.

Mickelson 100/1. I'm really tired of him now, as with every passing year he slips into being more of a parody of himself. Far too short even at a venue where he has won three times. He might have one more glory run in him here, like Couples did, but I'd want better form coming in.

Bezuidenhout 100/1. I love backing this guy because he's a true fighter, putts like God, and has a great underdog life story - drank rat poison when he was a toddler, nearly died, and to this day speaks with a severe stutter because of it. Computer not a fan here though.

Kim 100/1. Shrug.

Frittelli 110/1. Bespectacled South African who weirdly came 5th here in 2020. Not sure he will this time.

Kisner 125/1. I thought this felt long but the computer wants even longer, which isn't a good sign for another of the tobacco-chewing southern states crew. Probably doesn't hit it far or well enough, despite his fierce attitude.

Willett 125/1. Always a hero in our hearts for lolling his way past Spieth to win this in 2016. Hope he properly lives it up each year in green jacket land. Asks Jack Nicklaus if he can have his spare roast potato at the Champions Dinner. Goes for a midnight dip in Ike's Pond. That sort of thing.

Ortiz 125/1. A true legend of the computer after his 125/1 win in Houston last year. The fact that he's now the same for this despite being a debutant tells you that he's played well since, too. Goes a bit under the radar as he isn't an American college hero (they are so obsessed with college over there, it's bizarre).

Champ 125/1. Bit of a freak show long hitter, but he's had no game for months, so this is definitely too short.

Woodland 125/1. US Open winner but has been mostly injured since. Can't see it.

Na 125/1. Christ I love Kevin, with his gimmicky shite and 66/1 win for me in Hawaii. Been here nine times and never inside the top ten. Suspect it's too long for him.

Macintyre 125/1. Qualified recently via world ranking, one of the last to get in. Very likeable lefty with a distinctive western Scottish accent who hits it far enough for Augusta, but to back him each way I'd want him to have played the course before.

Palmer 125/1. Bit too vanilla as a golfer to do well at Augusta. If he ever fluked a major, could see it being a US Open.

Munoz 150/1. Had a good start here last time and then evaporated on Sunday. Computer not fond at all.

Jones 150/1. Got in with a recent win. Only played this once, which surprised me, and missed the cut. You'd want longer to back him.

Z.Johnson 1575/1. A past winner but that was a weird year, and 14 years ago. He's far too short to do well now.

Todd 200/1. Odd-looking Georgian who had crashed out of the game but is now back. Odds about right.

Pan 200/1. Him finishing in a place at the 2020 Masters was insane. Possibly the worst course profile fit there is; short hitter, little course experience. Has done nothing since either.

Griffin 200/1. This is a long price for Lanto. He's a pretty unsubtle golfer to say the least, but he hits it far enough to get in the right spots here, so if he has a good ball-striking and putting week I don't see why he'd be too far away from the top ten. Had a debut sighter of the course last year.

Wiesberger 250/1. Austrian who has been sort of decent for a good while now, and qualifies for Augusta again. Rarely contends in America.

Schwartzel 250/1. Past winner. Was lucky then. Has had it now.

Hughes 250/1. Second appearance for this Canadian. Some signs of form but I'm not convinced even at this possibly inflated price.

Stenson 300/1. No idea how he's this short. Has gone off a cliff and heading for the glue factory.

Laird 300/1. Scotsman in America since forever. Qualified via a win in Vegas. First major since 2017, can't see him figuring.

Thompson 300/1. Qualified with a win in the Twin Cities last summer. One of the lower profile American players.

Walker 400/1. Still qualifies via his PGA win years ago, but I think this might be his final outing. Hasn't done anything in the game for about four years.

Cink 400/1. I've only been to watch one major live, which was the 2009 Open, where this man stole all our dreams. He is now 47 and has his rather dorky-looking son on the bag. Qualified out of nowhere with a win in the autumn and having played this tournament on 17 previous occasions, with a best of 3rd and only missing the cut twice, I don't see why I wouldn't have a penny or two on him at this astronomical price. Even the computer agrees.

Langer 500/1. Sly old fox from Augsburg who made the cut last year at the age of 62. Now he's 63. Winner in 1985 and 1993.

Gay 500/1. Isn't gay, despite some of the shirts he wears.

Swafford 500/1. Another good ol' southern boy, possibly the goodest ol' of the lot. Walks around like the entitled son of a plantation owner, which I suppose is apt for this venue. Will not win.

Streb 500/1. Pops up every 5-7 years with a random win. Both his wins have been in Georgia, but not this Georgia.

Herman 600/1. Big friend of Trump (though aren't they all). No form at all.

Strafaci 600/1. The first of the amateurs. Won last year's US Amateur. Said to have a knobhead dad who is also his caddie. Google images has him looking like your standard American college twat.

Couples 600/1. Remains the coolest cat in town, even though he's now 61 and basically no part of his body works anymore.

Weir 1000/1. Old lefty Canadian who won 18 years ago. It feels like more.

Singh 1000/1. Fijian sociopath who won in 2000. A modern great and sued the PGA Tour just because he could. I was always a fan.

Osborne 1500/1. Runner up to Strafaci in the US Am. The market has him down as 'Charles', whereas I thought his name was Ollie. I'll leave that mystery unsolved.

J.Long 1500/1. The third and final amateur this year. He's ours, or just 'the Amateur Champion', because we in Britain don't need to specify. He's from Bristol.

Olazabal 2500/1. Spanish stylist who won this twice in the 90s and used to go around slaying Americans in the Ryder Cup with his old mate Seve. Widely considered to have one of the greatest short games of all time. He always seems a bit melancholy to me without his old buddy around. Also has arthritis.

Mize 3000/1. Won this in 1987, which is insane. Golf is amazing for that kind of ability for people to span eras.

Woosnam 5000/1. 1991 winner from Wales.

Lyle 5000/1. 1988 winner. Bad threads.

Bloody hell.

It probably took me about 1/4 of the time that it looks like it took me. Most of them feel like old friends / bitter enemies.

Ancer looks tasty @ 80/1.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

If I ever put Rahm up again, someone set the dogs on me.

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The dogs are coming.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

I think we've just witnessed apex Finau. If I ever put him up please take me round the back and shoot me.

---

Dogs and a bullet then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baz

kempton 13:45
meng tian

wins

---

ffs

Either Rahm romps it to prove the computer right once and for all or he is stricken from the thread.

Right, gtfo all of you fruity cretins, we're reclaiming this thread for tomorrow to celebrate Liverpool at 2.7.

I've had to dust off the betting account and just to warm up I stuck a BTTS accy in the champ which was a 92nd minute missed Blackburn penalty away from yielding a £700 return.

Anyways, yeah, liquidate all your assets for tomorrow promises scenes. Whether we take the plunge for a -1 at 5s is something we can ponder over the next 24 hours.

Never bet on Blackburn to score.

Must have had a moment of great clarity overnight as was going to spunk heavy on -2 @ 11 this morning but unfortunately I've had my account restricted as they realised my -1 @ 5 bets are about to bankrupt them so alas, just -1 for me.

Go on then. £10 on Liverpool -1 @4/1

Varane is out with COVID. Price not yet crumbled :drool:

Dortmund at 9.50 is worth ago with City's recent history in the Champions League

£5 on Haaland to score 2 or more.

God bless the responsible gambling team for restricting me from further damage. Meet back next week on Wednesday for proper train.

Who is best for in-match odds and cashing out (for football)? Paddy or Bet365 or someone else?

Bet365. Why plan to cash out though?

I've heard that some sites are quite slow to update goals in leagues such as V.League. There was a game at the weekend where a goal went in, and my mates app still had cash option for a good 3-4 seconds. Hoping to capitalise on that.

EDIT: We were at the game, so saw it live.

Ah yeah that's good stuff. The guy at the pitch doing the bookie feed will have a man doing the same.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

Ah yeah that's good stuff. The guy at the pitch doing the bookie feed will have a man doing the same.

---

They employ 16 kids to do it here, pretty sure I can chuck them 200,000 dong to record a few seconds later :D

It is quick fire street to a restricted account though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kikó

It is quick fire street to a restricted account though.

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Aye, there is that. :D

"Fancy getting yourself sacked, young kidda? Here's $2."

EDIT: ah, you meant me, not him. Anyway, you're right - screws us both, really.

I've added one last Masters bet which is a heinz of the following tournament match bets

D.Johnson over DeChambeau: 8/11
Conners over Ancer: 5/6
Thomas over Spieth 4/5
Im over Matsuyama 4/6
Smith over Simpson Ev
Berger over Morikawa 10/11

I've had a nibble at Garcia & Casey EW.

Declare your Grand National bets. It’s this afternoon at 17:15.

I’ve gone big on Cloth Cap, cos all things well he should win.
Failing that, Kimberlite Candy winning would be magnificent.
I also have a small bet on Any Second Now.

Chris's Dream, Mister Milarky and Discorama for me.

If Mister Malarkey wins I’ll buy you an NFT. :sick:

Places. :dc:

Cabaret Queen
Discorama
Burrows Saint
The Long Mile
Tout Est Permis

£10 on each E/W

The wife has:

Chris's Dream
OK Corral
Ami des bois
Mr Malarkey

Post your horses you nonces.

Cabaret Queen for me. My lifetime record is 1 place and 2 horses dead so fingers crossed we can at least bang in the equaliser today.

Oof. The kiss of death.

:moop:

de Bromhead horses are on the juice.

Had 2.50 each way on both Any Second Now and Farclas. I think both placed?

Betfair not settled yet so not sure how much that gets me.

Rahm and Finau placing is a small victory for the COMPUTER

It is indeed, though that Finau T10 is an embarrassing way to do it. Record for the year now stands at 230pts wagered 431.04pts returned (RoI +87.41%). I also won on Stewart Cink's top 20 and a couple of other side bets though they aren't in the calculation.

Im over Matsuyama match bet possibly the worst tip I have ever put up, deki beat him by 23 shots and took the jacket.

Two tournaments next week which will have somewhat shorter previews.

Just about scraped profit largely thanks to Cink.

Would have been a nice amount had Macintyre not bogeyed 17th and thus tied with Harman as the top lefty.

Only took the main bets so ended up return £42 on bet £38.

RBC Heritage

Back in its traditional slot just after the Masters, this nudge around Harbour Town in South Carolina is not too far up the road from Augusta but demands a different skillset, with long hitters largely neutralised, and accurate wedge play rewarded. As with a lot of PGA Tour events at the moment, the field seems to be a revolving door, with Bryson pulling out today and I cannot imagine that Dustin Johnson won't at least consider doing the same.

Fitzpatrick 28/1
Na 45/1
Kirk 60/1
Streelman 66/1
Reavie 150/1

Austrian Open

Not much to say about this one except that it's the first event of 2021 to take place in Europe. Field is similar to the recent Kenyan events, but with the Africans replaced by a selection of lowly mountain goatherds. I'm on two of the homeboys at opposite ends of the market.

Schwab 18/1
Crocker 33/1
Catlin 50/1
Chesters 100/1
Heisele 125/1
Nemecz 250/1

All e/w

Unless I’m missing something or it’s the biggest fix in history, Ben Askren to beat Jake Paul in a boxing match at 6/4 is free money

Nah. I reckon if he give me one free punch even I could make Askren’s legs wobble.

Based off of what? One flukey knee to his face?

He’s been knocked out once in his life in MMA. I don’t they a Youtuber will be able to do the same in 10oz gloves or whatever they’re using

Investing in France to win Eurovision, this really is a test of an Englishman's nerve.

Sorry for the hasty delete. The endorsement remains. :charm:

It's a very accomplished entry in what looks a far from vintage year, and far easier to get right on the night than co-favourites Malta and Switzerland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTaOHpWz3og

Isn't this Eurovision 2020?

What's the value selection @-james-? I see San Marino are turning out Flo Rida.

The San Marino song is a bit of a banger but I can't see it contending, even if Flo Rida is physically there (which I rather doubt).

France and Bulgaria are the safest bets at the moment. Romania, Moldova, Belgium are worth small greens if you want to get involved now but I don't want to advise any of them properly before rehearsals.

I'll do a Jimmy style preview in a few weeks.

It's a pretty good song, is the frog language factor something it has to overcome? Couldn't see that charting outside francophone territories (though I know nothing so it's probably number 1 everywhere).

To an extent, but it's that much better than most of the other entries that it shouldn't be a factor. There's precedent for foreign language ballad types winning (Serbia 2007, Portugal 2017) and it's the type of thing that gets lapped up by juries. I think it's pretty immediate and everyone knows what "Voila" means.

Switzerland, currently hovering around the same odds as France, is also performed in French. That has a pretty high ceiling but its chances will depend entirely on presentation. Wouldn't be surprised to see it drift to 20s post-rehearsals.

Sad that The Computer didn’t catch this:

View Tweet

125/1 :happycry:

Computer works on more solid stuff than that hocus pocus.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Waffdon

Unless I’m missing something or it’s the biggest fix in history, Ben Askren to beat Jake Paul in a boxing match at 6/4 is free money

---

£15 on Askren @ 2.4
£5 on Askren by KO @ 6.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Waffdon

Based off of what? One flukey knee to his face?

He’s been knocked out once in his life in MMA. I don’t they a Youtuber will be able to do the same in 10oz gloves or whatever they’re using

---

:harold:

:D

He’s definitely thrown that.

Absolutely. Wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Paul gave him his paycheque just for the publicity. One step closer to Conor.

Come on Catlin (Austrian Open). Schwab probably too far out.


Fitzpatrick, Steelman in with a chance of placing.

Schwab forgot how to play in round 2 which hurt him a lot.

He could potentially win but he'd need a lot of help from those above him you feel.

Edit: Although Kieffer and Catlin are playing far too good right now.

Schwab should be fine for a dead heat place at the least though.

Mon Catlin.

MASSIVE putt on the 14th to take him to -13.

Edit: Kieffer will not fuck off though.

Schwab has fucked it.

Betfair is only 7 places so unless Canizares bogeys and finishes on -7 I'm getting no dead heat placing from him.

Edit: Catlin could win but he's missed a relatively easy putt (especially with how he's putted today) for birdie which would have near enough guaranteed a playoff at worse.

This playoff is nervy as fuck.

Kieffer's put it into the water :drool:

Catlin has a chance.

He's in the water again :rave:

Twice!

Thrice!

And a third time :drool:

Well done Jimbo yet again.

Cor, loving that result. Pity Schwab only got 1/5 of a place (at my bookie anyhow).

Might get a sliver from Hilton Head, we'll see.

Excellent as always Jim, cheers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Cor, loving that result. Pity Schwab only got 1/5 of a place (at my bookie anyhow).

Might get a sliver from Hilton Head, we'll see.

---

He snuck into a dead heat place with Betfair thanks to Canizares dropping to -7.

That playoff today was the tensest Golf I've seen (obviously helped by having money on one of them ofc).

Fiver on Neil Robertson at 5.8 for the World Championship. There's power in that hair.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry

That playoff today was the tensest Golf I've seen (obviously helped by having money on one of them ofc).

---

Playoffs are a nightmare and it feels like my guys always fuck them, but, as we say to the god of death: not today.

I love that Mahow has become a hardcore golf viewer.

Jimmy and The Computer single-handedly doing more for fan engagement than all the mooks at the European Tour with that as part of their job description combined.

Time to pack in the day job, Jimmy.

Two places in America thanks to Fitzpatrick and Kirk.

Jimmy and The Computer donning it again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by -james-

Time to pack in the day job, Jimmy.

---

Tbh I'm still a bit mystified as to whether it works and if it does, why others aren't doing it.

This week one of the well known tipsters had 4 selections the same as me for Austria, which was :sherlock:, but for Heritage we completely diverged, as we usually do, so I think it was just coincidence.

£136 back from about £20. You're the new BTC.

Zurich Classic

This is a weird tournament. Played in New Orleans and slapped in the down part of the schedule between Masters and PGA, it's played in a very unusual 'pairs' format, so rather than a player you're betting on a team of two. They play two days of foursomes (alternate shot) and two days of fourball (all play their own ball). It's quite fun in terms of seeing who on tour is mates with whom, and you do get some quite weird pairings at times but otherwise I never really know what to make of it. The winners get most of the usual winning perks (2 year card, money, Fedex points) but not the Masters invite. I've plumped for 5 teams ranging from the top to much further down the market.

Cantlay & Schauffele 7/1
Homa & Gooch 28/1
Van Rooyen & Clark 60/1
NeSmith & Seiffert 90/1
Garnett & Stallings 125/1

Gran Canaria Open

The European Tour starts a three week stay in the Canary Islands (two weeks in Tenerife follow this event). The course will be new to everyone - expect, perhaps, tournament host Rafa Cabrera Bello and a few who may have played it on the local Spanish circuit. Wind and sun can be expected, it'll be a classic resort layout. The field is a bog standard European Tour effort although bolstered a touch by a few higher profile players like Cabrera Bello, Eddie Pepperell, recent winner Rozner, and aeroplane cabin groper/urinater Thorbjorn Olesen.

Dubuisson 33/1
Crocker 45/1
Otaegui 55/1
Lemke 66/1
Levy 100/1
Mansell 200/1

Betfair like Mansell a lot more than Coral do.

He's only at 126.

Guessing steer clear at that price.

These are all from Sky Bet. I'd take 175. Not 150.

Ben Coley has also tipped Mansell. :sherlock:

He was who tipped 4 of the same guys last week, but tbh he is a great golf writer and tipster so I'm honoured if the computer occasionally comes up with the same as him. However it hates all his other picks for Gran Canaria. I'll be interested to see what he thinks about New Orleans. He and Steve Palmer are the two must-reads.

Sully is a classic example of someone who is a great match for this tournament using qual methods, but using the slightly more quant approach that I do he loses appeal. That isn't to say that often those guys don't win, but it's all playing the percentages and the odds.

Given someone has been copying your posts and putting them on reddit I wouldn't be surprised if someone is touting the computer's work as their own somewhere.

Where’s that?


(It’s not me.)

Someone took one from the super league thread and did so yesterday.

I nominate Lofty. It's a bold move, but one a wolf must have in his locker.

Let's just say the only things I post about on Reddit, I am confident Jim isn't interested in.

r/iamameme and r/NFLGB

/r/BIGTITTYGOTHGF imo

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Gran Canaria Open

Dubuisson 33/1
Crocker 45/1
Otaegui 55/1
Lemke 66/1
Levy 100/1
Mansell 200/1

---

Lemke seems to have dropped out so we're down to five (hopefully will be a void situation).

Skybet and Betfair say as long as they haven't teed off the bet is void.

Seems he was pulled from the Austrian Open due to Covid and I guess he is still recovering/isolating.

365 refunded my stake

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

/r/BIGTITTYGOTHGF imo

---

Actually correct :D

Falling short with 4 pairs in the top 20 but no one placing here, I suppose I used up all my luck last week. We go again.

Really thought they'd all place.

Valspar Championship

We're now fully into the post-Masters lull, with another 3 weeks before the next major. Wells Fargo next week is a bigger draw, but this one is sponsored by paint coatings. In my mind, this is one of the most vanilla, nondescript events on the PGA Tour - played at Innisbrook somewhere near Tampa, the course is OK and tends to suit the nudgers of this world rather than the big hitters, but looking back over previous editions, I really can't remember much at all. Paul Casey is the double reigning champion here and returns looking for a hat-trick. Dustin Johnson also appears, as does my mate 'JT', but otherwise most of the bigger names are giving this a swerve. I'm backing a couple of Europeans who look as classy as anyone.

Hovland 20/1
Hatton 28/1
Streelman 60/1
Hoge 100/1
Moore 125/1
Long 150/1

Tenerife Open

After a barren week last week we hop from one Canary Island to another, with covid keeping them in one place for longer stretches of time. The field is not terribly different to last week, with a handful of additions and a couple heading to the States. The European Tour hasn't been to Tenerife since 1995 and even then it was on a different golf course, so clues are in short supply. From what I can tell, like last week it looks quite short and open, so should be a birdie fest with wind possibly the only defence.

Canter 40/1
Burmester 50/1
Meronk 80/1
Angles 80/1
Laporta 200/1
Broberg 250/1

all e/w

B365 doesn’t know who Steve Stricker is, so hopefully he doesn’t win.

I presume he's WD'd, although there's no announcement, as the alternates have all moved up one.

I will whitewash history and replace him with Ryan Moore 125/1.

I went for Straka instead, close enough :D

Hatton (and Straka, for that matter) are WD with covid. The old beast is back to fuck me up.

EDIT: Hatton out, adding Scheffler 28/1.

Man City at evens :lol:

You’re getting 8/11 for PSG not to lose. That’s mental

I'll follow you in on PSG as I need something to offset having to cheer for Neymar.

Betfair are horrendous at dealing with Golfers withdrawing.

I had to message them twice to void the bet Stricker and now I have the most useless agent trying to void Hatton's bet.

He initially said Hatton wasn't withdrawing and sent me a Flashscore link to which I sent him links from the BBC and PGATour and now he's entered my Bet ID wrong twice, telling me it's a bet for Laporta.

He clearly didn't copy/paste and has just entered the numbers but put them in the wrong order.

Edit: Now claiming it's already been voided despite still showing as open in my bets...

If you follow PGA Tour Communications (I think it is) on twitter they instantly tweet out the withdrawals/field changes, and I think the European Tour do the same in Europe. Betfair must be completely useless as SkyBet immediately voided for me. Whoever normally runs a golf market would be well aware of this stuff so you probably just got a work experience idiot.

The company/whoever runs the markets know as they instantly take the golfer out (which means you can't cash out) but unless you pester them they seem to take fucking ages to actually void any bets.

The guy I got today in the live chat was absolutely a work experience idiot.

You're obviously on a list with that ROI. They'll be trying to get rid.

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

That won't look good out of context.

Bet365 for life. Every month they add to my Rewards4Racing balance, just for placing bets, which I’ll likely never use.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

---

Going to an actual bookies shop?

Are they open again yet?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

---

Single digit stakes?

Yeah low stakes means you'll be ok.

Even more 4D chess genius. I just haven't bet some weeks. Missed at least 2 winners. The thrill is in being right.

Burmester and Meronk looking good in Tenerife with Angles (shame he wobbled today), Canter and Laporta not far off the pace.

Hovland and Scheffler aren't far off the pace in America and they still have a few holes (more so Hovland) left today.

Could be a nice day tomorrow.

Both Burnmester and Maronk have started well this morning. The former in the lead with Maronk in third. Mon the boys.

Was able to watch some of the early holes and they were both playing excellent stuff.

Burmester could have been out of sight already though tbh.

He's 3 clear of Meronk with 7 holes to play so looking decent either way.

Great 1-3* Jimmy. Well played mate.

Banging work again.

Fantastic. Thanks a lot.

Legend Jim :cool:

Cheers all, didn't get to see any of it today but loved the result.

Hovland is ripping it up here.

Think CNN are calling this as a place for Hovland, in which case we're looking at a 2021 stats line of:

156 golfers backed
6 winners
24 places

289pts invested
594.27pts returned
RoI +105.63%

Wells Fargo Championship

With two more events before the next major, the first is this event at Quail Hollow, a venue which has coughed up two McIlroy wins in the past and generally (but not exclusively) tends to favour the longer hitters. Fat Bryson duly emerges from his protein-shake lair, as indeed do Jon Rahm and McMince himself, who hasn't been seen since a dreadful Masters. There will be a time to side with Rory to emerge from his slump, but I don't think this is it. Instead, in a slightly unusual staking plan for me, I'm sticking rigidly to just four of his rivals towards the top of the market. I haven't yet had a win from Tony Finau - no one has - but he has made me place profit and joins two of his Ryder Cup chasing countrymen as well as my guy Joaco on a shrunken list this week. I've looked high and low for value further down the market, but for once I'm just not seeing it.

Simpson 20/1
Finau 25/1
Reed 25/1
Niemann 28/1

Canary Islands Championship

As has become common on the European Tour during Covid, this is a second tournament on the same course and after last week's birdie fest it will surely be more of the same this week. We found a sixth winner of the year with long-hitting Dean Burmester, and he's around the same profile statistically as surprise second place man and Indiana Jones nemesis Nicolai von Dellingshausen, for whom that finish could be a career-changing effort. The golf course therefore clearly suits a certain sort of player and I've asked the computer to find me some more. Perhaps surprisingly, off the back of a nicely-paying third place it once again churns out the name of Poland's finest, Adrian Meronk, among others.

Meronk 35/1
Crocker 35/1
Veerman 50/1
Jordan 60/1
Oriol 100/1
Pulkkanen 300/1

all e/w

So this works by putting e/w bets on each of the golfers or add them all in a acca and e/w it all?

Just do them individually and select ‘ew’.

Nice one Jimmy

Cards tonight.

Thiago silva, Reece James, Casemiro and Sergio Ramos @ 85/1 ooh James ain’t starting brb

Thiago Silva, Kante, Casemiro & Kroos to be carded, BTTS @ 160/1

Webb Simpson withdrew with a neck injury literally on the first tee box. While since I've had that one. Guess it's all down to Big Tony.

Did he tee off? If he did some places wont void his bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Webb Simpson withdrew with a neck injury literally on the first tee box. While since I've had that one. Guess it's all down to Big Tony.

---

Do they do that to get a paycheck (as in tennis)?

I'm guessing he didn't tee off as he's been replaced by someone else.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by niko_cee

Do they do that to get a paycheck (as in tennis)?

---

Not on this occasion as he actually withdrew and was replaced. However I can remember a time when Joost Luiten walked up to the first tee injured, teed up, tapped the ball with his driver and then immediately withdrew in order to add an event for Ryder Cup eligibility or something. Made him popular with whoever the next guy for the field was.

Couple of quid on Aubameyang/Fernandes 2+ goals double and 3+ goals double respectively. Just for interest.

Bulgaria to win Eurovision at 22/1 is unlikely to go any higher pre-event.

Free money?

No, just probably quite overpriced.

Pulkkanen has had an unbelievable third round. Only 300/1.

I thought he fucked it yesterday shooting a par round.

10 under is batshit.

Yeah absolutely mega. Was cursing I only had 5 places and I think he heard.

Higgo is taking the piss now.

He's even dropping in a hole in one.

He is the real deal, will be a world class player.

Yeah fair play to Higgo.

Tapio in for 3rd. My penance is I have to spend the evening supporting Darth Reed in his bid for a high finish in Quail Hollow.

Nice one Jimmy

Quality result. I wasn't sure he'd make a full place due to the massive pack behind Higgo.

Top work as always Jim, thanks again!

Scummy place run befitting of Patrick Reed has come in, hope you got 8 places as I did for a full place.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

There will be a time to side with Rory to emerge from his slump, but I don't think this is it.

---

Gr8 shout, m8.

Still an excellent return from the initial stake, can't get them all right!

My skybet is looking incredibly healthy so the two places are welcomed.

Byron Nelson

Named after the 5-time major champion from the wartime years, this tournament has had many homes and this year it largely serves as a warm-up for the PGA Championship next week. It's also on a new course at Craig Ranch (why can't Americans pronounce 'Craig'?) which few of them will have seen before. Often in this sort of pre-major event, the bigger names are more concerned with the process than the result. The 'big four' here - Rahm, Bryson, Spieth and DJ - do not appeal at single digits. Instead I look to those who would benefit most from victory. Many are looking for their first win, and there are only 11 events left in the promotion/relegation style dogfight of earning your card for next year too. With a top 125 finish needed to stay on Tour, many in the field are some way short of that. For others, a win or a top 2 will be needed just for a berth in the major championship coming. I'm plumping for a couple of winless young guns at the top of the market, and some meagre coin sprinkled around five longer shots.

Scheffler 22/1
Zalatoris 25/1
Ghim 80/1
Vegas 110/1
Sloan 250/1
Hoag 300/1
Campos 500/1

British Masters

Possibly the more intriguing event of the week is the European Tour's return to Britain, and to a classic venue too, with the British Masters this year being played at the Belfry. This will be a rare example of a top tour event taking place on a course that I have played. In fact, I've had three separate attempts at the Brabazon course on which this tournament will be staged and after each one I hated myself, golf and life in general - it's too long and too tough for a poor player like me. These guys, though, should find it a relative breeze, as is often the case when golfers with modern technology take on a classic design whose main defence is the possibility of wind. Holes such as the short par 4 10th and long par 4 18th are stone cold classics that older viewers may remember from Ryder Cups past. The field is slightly better than the recent island events, with additions like MacIntyre, Willett and Detry upping the ante slightly. NB: Wednesday start and Saturday finish for this one.

Donaldson 40/1
Canter 40/1
Syme 50/1
Kawamura 80/1
Korhonen 80/1
Moriarty 1,000/1

Colm Moriarty :drool:

£50 single on Moriarty.

It's slightly showboating after the 300/1 third place at the weekend but, you know, trust the process. He arrives in good form having won the 2007 FirstPlus Wales Challenge.

Betfair have cottoned on, they're only giving Moriarty at 501.

£1ew on each!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mike

£1ew on each!

---

Same, gonna finally join in with these golf trains.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by -james-

Bulgaria to win Eurovision at 22/1 is unlikely to go any higher pre-event.

---

Bulgaria down to 9.8 on Betfair exchange.

Greece @65 is the next one worth picking up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Boydy

Same, gonna finally join in with these golf trains.

---

You better not jinx it!

I almost certainly will.

I was going to say, you join the firm after 6 months of 105% return on investment, so from here I'm afraid the only way is down to a sustained cold run and massive losses.

I punted on MacIntyre and thank fuck I did because he's going on a massive tear despite the fact that he dropped 2 shots this round.

He's captain of my fantasy team, the odds were shit though. Great young player, should become the best Scot since Monty.

From the golfing haven that is Oban.

His accent is A++. Good luck to the yanks with that one.

Canter and Mikko doing reasonably well still in the British Open.

Bob Mac hard to beat from here.

Richard Bland, up there sharing the lead, is an intriguing sporting story, to me at least. Named 'Richard Bland', 48 years old, from the bland nation of England, plays the bland sport of golf. Has played 477 career tournaments on the European Tour. Zero wins. His last tournament win at any level was twenty years ago. Qualified for 2 majors in 25 years as a pro, missed the cut at both. Career earnings: 5.5 million euros (so an average annual salary of around £200,000 over his career).

Christ that's a nice life if you can get it.

Dickie Bland gets all the bishes.

He’s also top 218 in the world.

Golf needs a Ronnie O’Sullivan to call everyone else shite.

Morally they all owe Eldrick about 2/3rds of their lifetime earnings. It's probably the same with Ronnie really.

Bland at 80/1 is tempting (4 places though).

Rest of the pack dropped off the face of the earth (apart from Korhonen)

If we don't get a winner in America I'd love for Seamus Power to take it.

Mikko is definitely in with a shout today. Great finish lined up in the back 9.

I’m on 5 places at 90/1 but feel it’s definitely win or bust. :yn:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pleb

Bland at 80/1 is tempting (4 places though).

---

I hate myself right now.

Skybet have it for 7 places

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pleb

I hate myself right now.

---

You'll hate yourself more when Migliozzi or Burmester win.

Coley put up Molinari at 250/1 didnt he

Might have to either stop checking his tips, or start backing them.

Actually I see he’s dropped off now. Yess!

Wouldn't be remotely mad.

Korhonen placing is :drool: despite missing out on the win. Swung and missed on MacIntyre. EDIT- Never mind, MacIntrye is still in play for a place.

Amazing. Didn't put Mikko as ew and every other one as ew. Top banter.

btw, American golf fans are the worst.

"Kooch".

Just fuck off.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baz

Coley put up Molinari at 250/1 didnt he

Might have to either stop checking his tips, or start backing them.

Actually I see he’s dropped off now. Yess!

---

His run in the last 8 weeks or so has been absurd. Computer had the measure of him all through the autumn and winter, though.

Vegas might sneak a place here.

He needs some bogeys from those above him but the weather is on his side.

Going to need Charl blowing up I think, and the Doc.

One shot off a dead heat placing.

PGA Championship

The second major of the year. Since moving into this calendar spot the PGA Championship has struggled somewhat for an identity. Whereas the Open is a test of links golf how it was first designed, the US Open is set up to be brutally difficult, and the Masters is the Masters, it's often been hard to say what exactly the PGA is for. It has a nice big trophy, and major status, but all too often the PGA of America has set courses up in a more 'friendly' fashion so as not to embarrass its club pros, 20 of whom qualify for this tournament each year. Despite those interlopers, it is undoubtedly the 'deepest' field in golf, with all of the world's top 100 invited, and a somewhat haphazard qualifying process raising that field to 156. This year it seems they had to go a long way down the list to find a reason to invite Rickie Fowler, could not find one, and then just invited him anyway, because, well, I don't really know.

All that being said, I am very much looking forward this year's event, and that is mainly because of the venue. Rather than some boring parkland course, this year it's at Kiawah Island. This is a remote, somewhat wild, coastal venue in South Carolina notorious for the 'War by the Shore' Ryder Cup in 1991, when Seve trolled everyone to death, American players were wearing combat hats to SUPPORT THE TROOPS, and everyone went a bit mental. If the wind gets up, as it did in 1991, Kiawah can be brutal; if not, it is still a fairly tough test.

A more recent source comes from when this same Championship was played at Kiawah in 2012 and Rory McIlroy won by eight. In fact, that tournament was more or less dominated by Europeans, as is often the case when conditions become firm and fast and the wind gets up. Kiawah will need deadly ball-striking and a solid short game to get up and down when things go awry.

So how are the big contenders looking? Imagine my shock that after a comeback win, Rory McIlroy has swiftly been installed as favourite. He may well win - there are a number of things that point to him having a strong chance - but he is poor value at the price. Dustin Johnson has been all over the place since winning in Saudi, and although Jon Rahm appeals in the same way he always does, I have decided to learn my lessons and not side with him (he can thank me when he hoists the Wanamaker on Sunday night).

I have three main selections e/w, and three triple figure selections for your spare change. The below are all 11 places with SkyBet, which I'm sticking with, even though my top pick was tempting on the nose as well. Side bets will follow when the markets are up.

Selections

Toggle Spoiler

Jordan Spieth 12/1. After three years in the wilderness, Spieth has turned the lights back on and now seems to threaten whenever he plays. Like Rory McIlroy, he is one major short of the career grand slam (something only ever achieved by five golfers in history) and this is the one he's lacking. He may not have a better chance than this. Arriving bang in form, if the driver behaves he has to fancy his chances rotten on this layout. Controlling your ball flight with the irons will be crucial and no one is better at doing that than Spieth at his best. His short game should also be suited in the event that things go awry. Two of his previous major wins have come on the coast, with the third (Augusta) just a short drive from Kiawah. I often oppose Spieth and this is my first bet on him in a long time. I hope he doesn't let me down.

Viktor Hovland 18/1. Smiley, slightly eccentric Viktor feels like he is the coming man in golf. As far as pure ball-striking goes, I'm not sure there is anyone better. Later this year he will become the first Norwegian to play in the Ryder Cup. Before then, who knows what he could win? I fancy him strongly here for two reasons. First of all, Kiawah is going to be a course that demands quality iron shots, which will work in his favour and against some of the wedge merchants. Secondly, the paspalum greens here are similar to those he won on similar 'island' type settings in Mexico and Puerto Rico. If he putts well, he should be right in the mix, and I much prefer him to some of the elite few - a group he may well soon join.

Tyrrell Hatton 45/1. Hatton's odds have drifted like a barge and I am clambering aboard. He hasn't played since the pairs event in Louisiana where he gave a strong performance. The 'vid then took him out but I don't see why he wouldn't be fit and raring to go for this one. This is a big computer pick - statistically he is very overpriced here, I have him closer to 30/1. His ball-striking is the difference.

Kevin Streelman 175/1. Loath though I am to back someone who walks around with sunglasses on the back of his head, Streelman is so beloved of the computer here that a few spare pennies just have to go on him.

Joel Dahmen 250/1. Dahmen is curiously long at this price. He is a popular player with a big social media following, who, to be honest (unlike his mate Max Homa) I find a bit tiresome. However, he has found a bit of form in the last few months including a win in the Dominican Republic again putting on that paspalum grass. The computer had that one covered and it likes him here, too.

Aaron Rai 400/1. Rai has been strangely quiet this year, hardly playing at all after moving into the top 100 at the end of last year. When he has played, the returns have been quiet except for a very decent showing at the WGC in Florida. Clearly he has been focusing on this as he hasn't played for weeks and a good showing could open numerous doors for him. With 11 places paying and a recent big win in treacherous weather (in Scotland last year) I think this is worth a speculation.

Cracking write up Jim.

If I go with 10 points each on the top three each way, how many points would you suggest on the longshots? Assume that's each way too?

I have it like this (using your 10pts as a baseline)

10pt Spieth
8pt Hovland
5pt Hatton
1pt the others

And yes, each way the lot, I didn't phrase that great.

Ta very much.

So as not to mess with your system, what measurement do you normally use with pts? 100?

One last question, what does this mean?

Quote:

---

The below are all 11 places with SkyBet

---

If they place in the top 11 Skybet pay out for each way? Was looking online for what counts as an each way in golf and it seems to vary by bookie.

In my 12 year old brain Kiawah Island was some fantastical Isla Nublar style place whacked out in the middle of some ocean somewhere, giant reptiles chilling by the greens and all.

I normally don't state the staking plan in here (as it's up to the individual what they want to do), but my standard thing is I have 5pts e/w per tournament and distribute them depending on the selections. For majors I double up to 10pts.

And yes, each way pays out the top x places, 11 in this case, and it will vary across firms (this being a major, you get more places at most firms). Top 11 means the top 11, so if you have say a four-way tie for 10th, then it would be a 50% payout.

Apologies if you've no doubt already covered all this, but what's the logic on doubling up for majors? Easier to call?

Gone all in (£25) so I get the free bet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Yevrah

Apologies if you've no doubt already covered all this, but what's the logic on doubling up for majors? Easier to call?

---

None really except for field strength, motivation and hype. The Masters is easier as they always play at the same course. Otherwise, I'd say it's like considering a tennis grand slam vs a random ATP event.

It's Eurovision week, my favourite betting week of the year. The reason Eurovision is a brilliant market to bet into is that it's pure hot take (you can't model it or look at the head-to-head lol), and the volatility of things going from 50/1 to 10/1 and back again is always a laugh.

You formulate your takes and fly whichever flag you think comes closest to nailing the formula. There is (almost) no variance or bad beats. Unlike in sport, there can be no debate as to whether the winner deserved to win or not. The winner is whoever came closest to getting the formula right, and the winner thus defines the formula for future contests.

We've had 6 or 7 favourites over the last couple of months but the market has now decided that it's a two horse race between France and Italy. They are the two stand out acts, and are very different to one and other with very different appeals (jury/televote). There's some weirdness elsewhere in the market, including what I'm guessing is a Cypriot millionaire driving their entry's price into the low teens over the past few days, and not much respect being given to the excellent Bulgarian entry.

I'll go through all the acts, organized by semi-final and whether I think they'll qualify or not, and what I think of their chances in the final where relevant. I've mentioned a few semi bets in the write-up but I'm not as keen on them as I am on the bets for the final.

I'll do the Big 5 & host (who qualify automatically) first, seeing as how the two favourites come from that group.

Toggle Spoiler

Italy (4/1) - Rock/rap entries traditionally struggle with juries but this is so well presented that I think they'll buy it. Huge televote numbers are a given and this is guaranteed to look incredible. Will contend for the win, but the jury question mark does remain.

France (4/1) - I think this is wonderful. Star quality and absolutely captivating, the rehearsal clip leaves me gagging for more. The caveats being it might be a bit high brow/pretentious to win, and I wonder if the big finale comes off a touch jarring on the night. I have it as a fairly nailed on jury winner, and seeing as how we get jury results first on the night I think it's a good idea to have this green ahead of time if you're trading the event. How it is rated on sofas will decide the contest.

Spain, UK, Germany - Non-contenders that are not worthy of discussion. UK and Spain come 25th & 26th. Germany might do alright idk.

Semi 1

Toggle Spoiler

Lithuania (44/1) - Q - Slick, fun, but maybe a bit too zany? Will certainly mop up a ton of televote. Should be fairly nailed on for a top 10 finish.

Russia (70/1) - Q - They've really nailed the staging on this, should be very memorable and assured of a good televote. Potentially even ticks the authenticity box for the jury. Top 10.

Sweden (90/1) - Q - I can't remember a Swedish entry this bad. Once again they get their national selection wrong and send the wrong act. Completely forgettable and should get lost among the plentiful more engaging performances. Could genuinely see it not qualifying and the TQ lay at 1.2 is certainly value.

Cyprus (13/1) - Q - Just as in 2019, Cyprus attempt to recreate their second place finish of 2018 (click here for a reminder of how good that was) by sending an unbeat pop song performed by a scantily clad diva and four dancers in a line. Elena is very competent, but will not come close to being as likeable to the televote as Eleni Foureira even if she does do a lot more smiling. This is one of the better entries of this genre, but I'm truly baffled it's traded as low as 11 the past few days. True odds of this winning are 100/1+.

Norway (210/1) - Q - It's a massive gimmick, but there's usually one that does well. Obvious jury poison. Anywhere between 10th and 20th sounds about right.

Ukraine (40/1) - Q - This will be a big fan favourite and has drawn the absolute pimp slot in the semi. Probably too weird to properly contend.

Malta (13/2) - Q - Instantly went favourite when the song came out, and I get it. It's contemporary, attention grabbing, huge vocally, has a message etc. Is it more memorable than the other favourites? I don't think so. Maybe too much of a Lizzo/Netta tribute act, and might get lost in the sea of uptempo pop. It's definitely not a bad one to have onside but the current 13/2 in the outright is probably about right.

--

Australia (880/1) - Borderline - This is a curious one. I really like it, and should go down better with the juries than Croatia, Israel etc., but it has loads going against it. Lack of USP, rotten draw, but also lack of diaspora/voting friends and the fact that it'll be an empty stage with a home video playing. The latter element introduces a lot of uncertainty but I hear the execution is quite impressive and might not even be noticable to the lay viewer. Basically it's probably at the mercy of the juries, which is worrying considering that it's a tricky song to sing and Montaigne has far from a spotless record when it comes to live vocals. I do hope it's a success but steering clear in the betting.

Romania (330/1) - Borderline - I backed this as low as 35 in the outright pre-rehearsals which is clearly a turd. Just doesn't come to life on stage or showcase Roxen's vocals like it should. Possibly in trouble.

Ireland (310/1) - Borderline - Has a fairly unique staging concept and following the worst song in the contest will elevate it. It's just a bit too breathless though and I can't see it travelling East very well. There is definitely a universe where it qualifies but I'd want a bigger price.

Croatia (200/1) - Borderline - Probably the most generic of the fem-pop acts and I hope it doesn't qualify, but should be competent enough to get through.

Belgium (640/1) - Borderline - They're an actual band who make ACTUAL MUSIC so I have no doubt they'll look good on stage and deliver it well. Song is pretty dull so it's hard to see them not tanking the televote, but juries will reward it in an evening that is very light on jury bait. I've backed TQ at 2.2ish.

Israel (400/1) - Borderline - This lives or dies by the vocal performance on the night. More pretty boring fem-pop and perhaps borderline gimmicky with the whistle notes. Possible NQ.

Azerbaijan (550/1) - Borderline - This is 14th in the running order and I think by that point you're so done with inoffensive popstresses. Also not getting as many of the usual freebies in a semi featuring this many strong Eastern entries. I've laid TQ @1.7.
--

Slovenia (1000/1) - NQ - It's not awful, her vocals are excellent in fact, but qualifying from 2nd in the running order, and in between a bunch of stronger acts, is a tall order.

North Macedonia (1000/1) - NQ - A long three minutes. Nailed on last place.

Semi 2

Toggle Spoiler

San Marino (90/1) - Q - They're really, really trying here, and it does kinda bang, but it's hard to see much better than 15th in the final.

Greece (75/1) - Q - Should be superb vocally. The production team have correctly identified that it needs something to set it apart from similar entries this year, so have gone a bit leftfield with the staging (Think Sergey Lazarev 2016). Could look a bit naff or could absolutely nail the retro aesthetic. I'm optimistic.

Iceland (14/1) - Q - They have a huge cult following off the back of their song for last year, which was legitimately great but never going to win Eurovision. This year's entry is similar, but not as good. Nerdy twee stuff does not go down well with the televote and I'm not seeing much jury appeal either. Maybe I'm underestimating the power of the fanwank, but I do think the market is very driven by the west and I can't see this doing much better than 10th.

Bulgaria (17/1) - Q - This is my biggest position in the outright. It should be absolutely charming on the night and has potential for moment of the contest. Can absolutely win. Quite unsure why it's still trading in the high teens.

Finland (150/1) - Q - Very enjoyable Linkin Park tribute act. There's a strong precedent for rock flopping at Eurovision (Hungary '18 a recent example), but this is catchier than many of those and the success story that will be Italy has the potential boost jury sympathy towards this as well. I'm very tempted by a top 10 bet at 2.6ish.

Switzerland (18/1) - Q - What the hell are they thinking with his staging? The song has a huge ceiling and could've contended but it's completely unvoteable in this form. Top five at absolute best.

--

Albania (1000/1) - Q/Borderline - Solid Balkan-diva-core. You've seen it before. Plum draw in a semi that contains loads of voting friends too. Gets through I think, and possibly a bet if we get a drift to 1.8 TQ.

Austria (1000/1) - Q/Borderline - Absolute dirge of a song but Vincent does a decent job of selling it. Should get through.

Serbia (420/1) - Q/Borderline - I saw this described as 3 influencers getting trashed and doing karaoke and I can't do any better than that. I love it tbh, it could go down an absolute storm though is guaranteed to tank the jury.

Portugal (200/1) - Borderline - The aesthetic here makes me want to vomit. As a result I'm not sure I can judge it objectively. Market seems to think it qualifies and I cba getting involved.

Denmark (460/1) - Borderline - A rubbish song performed by a couple of randoms plucked from the queue for an £1 vodka coke 80s night. Has an absolute dream running order slot though, following load of weird dirge in semi 2. Absolutely no desire to back even severe odds against TQ mind.

Estonia (1000/1) - Borderline - Hunk in an undone tie. It's pretty listenable and I quite like it but the weak semi draw could be a killer.

Moldova (1000/1) - Borderline - Pleasant enough, but lots of acts that do the same thing better.

Latvia (1000/1) - Borderline - It's a bit moody and unfortunately perhaps not good enough a song for that not to be a dealbreaker. She's got a good set of pipes on her though.

--

Czech Republic (1000/1) - NQ - Really badly performed and the worst draw imaginable.

Poland (1000/1) - NQ - A complete mess.

Georgia (1000/1) - NQ - Nope

Bets I like currently:

Toggle Spoiler

Greece to finish top 5 @7
Greece to finish top 10 @1.92
Cyprus to NOT finish top 10 LAY @1.3
Russia to finish top 10 @2.02

Bulgaria to win Eurovision @18 (15/1 with 4 each way places is good too)
Bulgaria to finish top 4 @3.6
France to win Eurovision if you can get 4/1+
Italy to win Eurovision if you can get 5/1+ (improbable before about 9pm on Saturday)

This is my current guess at the top 15:

Toggle Spoiler

1. France
2. Bulgaria
3. Italy
4. Malta
5. Greece
6. Russia
7. Ukraine
8. Cyprus
9. Lithuania
10. Switzerland
11. Finland
12. Iceland
13. San Marino
14. Sweden
15. Romania

Start a thread for it and link the songs.

I have no idea what Jimmy is talking about with his Golf tips, but it sounds like he knows his shit to a ridiculous degree and they should be behind a pay wall. Get dat money Jim.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spikey M

I have no idea what Jimmy is talking about with his Golf tips, but it sounds like he knows his shit to a ridiculous degree and they should be behind a pay wall. Get dat money Jim.

---

He does and they really should.

My mate at bet365 says Jim will start to have a tracked account soon and everyone who they see following him will be restricted. May as well enjoy the good times while we can.

I don't think Jimmy tips anything that you can't get on with the exchanges. Probably better prices there too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kikó

My mate at bet365 says Jim will start to have a tracked account soon and everyone who they see following him will be restricted. May as well enjoy the good times while we can.

---

Think this is surely unlikely with 5 people on TTH following me in?

There is a reason I just put them up here. If I spread them widely, the clever people would be onto me.

Daws has dobbed you in and/or monetised your tips for personal gain elsewhere [THE GROUP!].

I said the clever people, not THE GROUP.

Speaking of which, James's Eurovision preview is quality and I'm going to go through it listening to the songs over the next few days.

Jim could charge £20 a month for his tips and he’d get hundreds of folk paying it. The amount of people paying for horse tips (half them odds on or evens fav) with horrible strike rates is ludicrous

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Speaking of which, James's Eurovision preview is quality and I'm going to go through it listening to the songs over the next few days.

---

You'll love the French entry.

Just went through a few, honestly I would rather nail my own bollocks to the kitchen floor than ever experience the Danish entry again. I don't share James's enthusiasm for Bulgaria either, it's like the John Lewis advert from hell.

Ukraine absolutely bangs.

Bulgaria is pure "moment" and there's nothing in the contest like it, the Portugal winner in 2017 is a decent comparison. It comes down to the performer and I think she's very good.

One of the best stories of last week week was the Ukraine vocalist having a covid scare and missing the second rehearsal. They seemingly plucked a random Dutch woman off the street to stand in and she was fucking great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v39i-sPHsQ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Think this is surely unlikely with 5 people on TTH following me in?

There is a reason I just put them up here. If I spread them widely, the clever people would be onto me.

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by niko_cee

Daws has dobbed you in and/or monetised your tips for personal gain elsewhere [THE GROUP!].

---

Snitches get stiches.

No dobbing, I just asked him. Maybe at such a low level (and a variety of bookmakers in use) it's probably not being picked up. When Yev starts chucking his mint £50 at every Moriarty though, we're done.

My main concern, and I have previously stated it, is that some pleb was detected copy pasting one of Jim's non betting posts on Reddit. So if someone was to do the same passing off Jim's tips as their own we would all be penalised for the crime of Jim being a thoroughly good lad.

Side bets for fun on the PGA

Top Asian - Takumi Kanaya - 10/1
Top SA - Dean Burmester - 10/1
Top continental Europe - Victor Perez - 18/1
Dual forecast Spieth / Hovland - 150/1
Someone to card a round of 18 pars - 20/1

I can't find a market on Omar Uresti to make the cut, but if you can find one, take 'Yes' which should be 4/1 or better.

No Top Asian, dual forecast or "round of 18 pars" on Betfair that I could see.

The exchange currently has £10 left on Uresti to make the cut @ 11. I took £5 of the initial 15.

11 is a bit daft. Basically, as mentioned above, this tournament invites the top 20 'club pros' from their annual championship, club pros being distinct from touring pros - i.e. these are the guys who work at a golf club, teach lessons, sell clubs and clothing in the shop etc. They are good players but nowhere near Tour standard. However Uresti, who won their championship the other day, is basically a cheat - he's an ex tour pro who has now fudged some kind of eligibility as a 'club pro' even though he's never done a day's club pro work in his life. As a result of this everyone hates him. I thought he would be no more than 5 or 6/1 to make the cut given that Rich Beem (the Sky Sports commentator) is 5/1 and he doesn't even play much golf anymore.

The market looks absolutely horrific and I'm the only one who has any money on it right now.

Uresti has a few quid at 11 and then it drops to 1.03.

There are probably a few floating mugs in those kind of zero liquidity exchange markets, if you time your run. A lay of that at 11 is bold to say the least.

Happy enough that Belgium got through the semi, but got Azerbaijan and Israel wrong. Should've really opposed Croatia.

The two major movers in the outright after the first semi are Cyprus are out to 55 which is all sorts of lol, and Ukraine are into 11ish 4th favs, which does seem much too short now. Malta briefly went fav after their showing which was a bit of a barnstomer, but drifted again after drawing first half in the final. I dunno. The first half could be pretty tame so it could really stand out at 10th in the running order or something. We also got a full clip of the Italy performance, and I'm a bit surprised that that's still trading favourite. It's a bit abrasive innit?

The Ukraine price movement is just me calling in a few favours with Big Wallet Billy. It's a certified firecracker of a tune and needs to win.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

11 is a bit daft. Basically, as mentioned above, this tournament invites the top 20 'club pros' from their annual championship, club pros being distinct from touring pros - i.e. these are the guys who work at a golf club, teach lessons, sell clubs and clothing in the shop etc. They are good players but nowhere near Tour standard. However Uresti, who won their championship the other day, is basically a cheat - he's an ex tour pro who has now fudged some kind of eligibility as a 'club pro' even though he's never done a day's club pro work in his life. As a result of this everyone hates him. I thought he would be no more than 5 or 6/1 to make the cut given that Rich Beem (the Sky Sports commentator) is 5/1 and he doesn't even play much golf anymore.

---

Well at least Uresti has had fun out there.

Don't @ my Uresti takes whilst Streelmania is running wild across South Carolina.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Don't @ my Uresti takes whilst Streelmania is running wild across South Carolina.

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I did lol at one of the commentators saying that no one, "with all due respect", believes that Streelman could win here.

lol @ Rory seething and lobbing a ball after getting a bogey.

Random thoughts on betting Eurovision this year while it's fresh in my mind. Probably about a 15% ROI off about 10k staked in the end. Had hoped for a lot better with the amount of time and effort invested.

Was a pretty tough market this year with a lot of uncertainty. Probably not firm enough in my convictions and nowhere near selective enough. It's a four month build up with new information coming out sporadically. I found it hard to be selective and ended up staking a load of old wank. I correctly called it as a two horse race between France and Italy, and I think I ended up with decent sums on Italy at average odds of 9ish and France at odds of 8ish. Pretty ideal, except I also had a load of money on stuff that was never going to contend like Sweden, Romania, Belgium, Greece etc. It's a massive waste of time staking something speculatively at 100/1 or whatever in March in the hope it drops to 10/1 at some point in the future and you are able to magically time the trade out correctly.

I think the way to do it is follow the national finals and get on any stand-outs in February/March, and then literally forget about it all until the semi finals. There's too much insider information in the market that I don't have access to in between.

Got way too drunk tonight and completely failed at evening out my France/Italy positions during the jury vote as I had intended.

Lost a big chunk on Bulgaria. Don't think it was a bad punt at all, just didn't come together. Them losing the tie-break for 10th place was a sore one. Had way, way too much invested in them though.

Malta coming 7th was flabbergasting and rather expensive. Completely tanked the televote. Also extremely surprised at Iceland doing as well as fourth.

Greece a success in the end, as was the Cyprus lay. Russia top 10 was a pleasant surprise on the night.

Moldova coming 13th is an absolutely massive lol and is 100% down to bought votes.

Yeah, Moldova was dreadful. It was like a remedial version of Holly Valance - Kiss Kiss.

Streelman is on it today.

It does appear that we may have a developing situation.

I really fucking hate Mickelson and the dickhead American golf fans.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

It does appear that we may have a developing situation.

---

Less so now.

His second shot on the 7th has really rattled him.

He was a bit unlucky on 9. Think -2 will place so hopefully he can hold on for that.

The tournament is magnificent theatre. Quite want Phil to win even though he's a massive twat.

Fingers crossed!

Streelman :face:

Fucked in on 17.

I get a dead heat place which has cost me about £60.

Only part of a place in the end. Disappointing but covers most of the others. Annoyed only to get that, poor weekends for Spieth and Hovland. My workings were good but just landed on the wrong players, it's ended up more linksy than anticipated.

Charles Schwab Championship

After a great golfing but quite an annoying betting week at the PGA (salvaged somewhat by a Streelman part-place) it's back to the regular events and we are back to Texas for the umpteenth time this season for the Charles Schwab at Colonial. Colonial is quite a nice test of a course, and like many tour venues, has its own 'hard stretch of holes' gimmick - we've already had the Snakepit and the Bear Trap and the Green Mile, and this week it's the worst name of them all, the Horrible Horseshoe. This is another example of what they call a 'second shot golf course', i.e. bombing it off the tee is less important and precise iron play will bring you home. As such we're on a selection of nudgers this week, some of whom have been computer heroes already this year.

Conners 25/1
Harman 35/1
Kirk 60/1
Kim 66/1
Thompson 175/1
Whaley 200/1

Made in Himmerland

This has previously been the 'Made in Denmark' but they seem to have narrowed it down this year - to all intents and purposes, this is the Danish Open. It's only been around for a few years but has already had some good winners including Pieters, Wallace and Wiesberger. The latter appears in a decent enough field also including young local hero Rasmus Hojgaard. I find this one quite difficult to read so sticking to the numbers, which churn out some mainly speculative punts including a trio of Aussies and also, curiously, David Drysdale, a 46 year old Scot who is the only man with a longer losing streak (523 events) than Richard Bland who finally bagged on his 478th attempt last time out.

Scrivener 50/1
Antcliff 100/1
Ormsby 125/1
Shinkwin 125/1
Simsby 300/1
Drysdale 400/1

This is the one.

View Tweet

@Jimmy Floyd

Probably the best 45 second interview in the history of sport (they will be Ryder Cup team mates also which is, yeah).

Europe NAP

I have a long term position backing Europe. Currently 6/4, if it gets any better I'll be adding more. Stricker is useless and USA are going to implode.

Hungary to be the lowest scoring team at the Euros at 5/1 (bet365) when they’ve France, Portugal and Germany in their group is a free paycheque.

Just gotta hope Scotland knock a few past Pickford.

Scrivener looking good in Denmark although the leaderboard is very crowded at the top right now.

Scriv T3 will break us even or slightly better in that event, looking a bit sketchy at Colonial unless Harman or Conners gets on a real run.

If Conners could putt, my word, what a player he would be.

Harman is shitting his pants.

Eventually got a sliver of a part place for Harman, overall the week returned 13pts from 20 which isn't great but have had worse.

A somewhat odd golf week this week as the European event in Germany is, by dint of their stupid covid rules, having to take place as a three-dayer from Sat to Mon. As such in a break from the usual format I have just one tip for that and also one bonus tip for the US Women's Open. The PGA tour event I'm tipping up normally as below.

Memorial Tournament

The Tour finally moves north this week to Ohio, and it's the latest edition of the event hosted by Jack Nicklaus. Much like the Arnold Palmer event in Florida, it's a bit of a sickening two fingers down throat fest as they all spend the week telling 'Jack' how great he - one of sport's most arrogant men - is. The golf, however, is usually very good on what is a real challenging test of a course. They have also renovated it for this year which should make it even better. The field is very strong indeed, with more of the world's top 10 playing than not. Rahm is the defending champion but he's not been at it this calendar year, except for those place runs from nowhere on Sundays. Instead I'm siding with a quintet of Americans led by one of the top young guns.

Morikawa 16/1
Scheffler 40/1
Cink 100/1
Gooch 110/1
Ghim 125/1

European Open

The computer has very few models for a three day event, but it knows that this course demands length and plenty of it. As well as this there are US Open places up for grabs. As such there is only one pick for me: Poland's Adrian Meronk, third in strokes gained off the tee on the European Tour for whom virtually any decent finish will make him the first Pole to qualify for a major championship.

Meronk 35/1

US Women's Open

Jin Young Ko 10/1 on the nose

Will you be dipping into the Euros this tournament Jimmy?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

Hungary to be the lowest scoring team at the Euros at 5/1 (bet365) when they’ve France, Portugal and Germany in their group is a free paycheque.

Just gotta hope Scotland knock a few past Pickford.

---

Hungary star Szoboszlai misses Euro 2020 with injury

ALL ABOARD!

Doubt the magic Magyars at your peril. They are toppling Germany.

There's your bet, Pleb. Hungary to be the highest scoring team.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pleb

Will you be dipping into the Euros this tournament Jimmy?

---

Maybe for fun but not with any knowledge, I only have anything more than joe pleb on golf (and maybe cricket).

Fucksake, had the dreaded “account limited” email from Bet365.

Tried to bet £2.50 EW on golf and they said I could bet 40p. :happycry:

I’ve been told it’s a badge of honour but it doesn’t feel like it. End of an era.

Apparently Coral and Ladbrokes do Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) the night before races so might try them. Boylesports and Sportingbet do too but, er, who are they. Don’t fancy giving them thousands of pounds.

Just make a new account using your wife, parents or Mike's details.

Such bullshit that. As if the exposure to a fucking £2.50 bet is so much that they'd fold. Absolute thieves.

Skybet have seemingly failed to add the word 'each' to the end of an 'Immobile, Kane and Morata to score 5+' bet at 200/1. Worth getting on in case they don't void.

Do you follow any popular tipsters Baz? I can't see why they'd do you for stakes that small otherwise.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

Do you follow any popular tipsters Baz? I can't see why they'd do you for stakes that small otherwise.

---

I only do small stakes for golf, but yeah I follow a tipster although he only has 155 members. Truth be told I went from £10 a point to £100 a point on 1st June. Was 3.5k up since January 1st and figured I could realistically be £35k up between now and Christmas, so decided to up it.

I’ve now withdrawn “30 points” from 365 and deposited 20 to Ladbrokes, so will see how long my account lasts. I usually back around 8 horses a day for between 10-30 points.

No wonder then. My golfers are on about 85% profit I think at the moment but I've only taken out about a thousand this year as the stakes are small.

Three grand profit is often about the tipping point on a 365 so that makes sense. You're best off shopping around as much as possible if you can be bothered keeping track of it all, will get you the best odds and also preserve your accounts. Definitely use the exchanges where possible as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don

Skybet have seemingly failed to add the word 'each' to the end of an 'Immobile, Kane and Morata to score 5+' bet at 200/1. Worth getting on in case they don't void.

---

Excellent shout.

More chance of them scoring 5 each than Sky paying out on that rick.

They have edited the bet to say each after it was struck.

Sky credited all affected bets with a free bet equal to the stake after amending the bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

I’ve now withdrawn “30 points” from 365 and deposited 20 to Ladbrokes, so will see how long my account lasts.

---

It lasted less than a day. :moop:

Some lad from my tipster group works for Ladbrokes/Coral (same company, apparently) and said he could look into what they restricted me for. Quite interesting really:

Trying to stake 2 points on a 6/1 got my account flagged saying 'showing price awareness' but it didn't even bloody win! It's now limited to 30% so I can only stake where the winnings would be 30% of what a clean account could win. I tried to bet on Prosperous Village tomorrow, and a clean account will be allowed to stake anything upto what returns £2000, whereas my max stake will be whatever returns £600. And because Ladbrokes and Coral are the same, and I used the same username, both got limited. Bit of a con, that.

Every bet I placed yesterday went for "review" but finally went through. Then todays bets went for review and then the traders offered me 40% stake at SP. No thanks! Weirdly they let me put a 4 pointer on without any review, so hopefully that wins as one last fuck you to Ladbrokes. Managed to get the others on, for proper odds with Sky and Paddy Power but they're serious long-term accounts and I'd hate for them to get limited, especially Sky, so don't really want to use them as part of my staking plan.

I'm trying William Hill now. I had to chat to them to "verify" my account the other day cos they were offering 33/1 for Ronaldo to join Miami and they let me have a whopping £15.15 on it. But then earlier they let me stake 2 points on an 11/8 shot tomorrow, so gonna smash them from Sunday onwards. Any bets on how long my account lasts?

Maybe I should go to £50 a point and lower my £35k by Christmas dream. :(

That sort of stuff is actually quite scandalous and should probably see the industry just shut down (more than all the 'oh but the poor idiots gambling all their money away' shite). If they want to operate like an underworld racket, then at least have the good grace to do so from the shadows.

Absolutely - they're absolute crooks who limit any sort of loss but encourage mug punters to go and bet on loss-makers like accas. Fuck the lot of them.

If Baron Samedi doesn’t win this American race at 10:48 I’ll reconsider the rest of my months betting. Everything points to a landslide. Very nervous though.

The whole business model is to attract mug punters. Them not bothering to hire odds compilers any more is pretty much why they're so easy to take money out of.

Popular bets and obvious misprices will get you limited quicker than anything though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -james-

The whole business model is to attract mug punters. Them not bothering to hire odds compilers any more is pretty much why they're so easy to take money out of.

Popular bets and obvious misprices will get you limited quicker than anything though.

---

Know any bookies that will happily let me bet ten 200 stakes from the off?

Betfair exchange.

Backing ten horses, that others are also backing, for £200 each on a fresh account is an almost guaranteed restriction I would think. Exactly the sort of business they don't want and incredibly easy to spot.

Frankie Dettori:lol:

So Jon Rahm led by six shots at the Memorial going into the final day, and then suddenly a positive covid test came back. I now have the joint leader at -12 (should be six back) and another three back (should be 9 back).

I think this is what is known as 'the rub of the green'.

Rahm finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

View Tweet

Serves him right for not winning when you picked him.

Why are they touching and hugging him lol. Why was he playing whilst waiting for results. Why does he say ‘not again’. So many questions

The gift that keeps on giving.

Keep it up Scottie.

The Woman in that video reveals the COVID news as if someone had died.

Jim Nantz with the funereal tone as well as if there's been a death in the family. Welcome to a sport that never takes itself less than deadly seriously.

Mon Scheffler.

I'm not too bothered from here, even if Cantlay wins. Despite the whole thing being a massive fraud, I'm pretty content with the process if my two top picks are 1st and 2nd with a couple of holes left.

Fucking pussy rules officials suspending play for a bit of rain.

Fairly sure Cantlay has the greater bottle of the two, though it's a bit of a race to the bottom in that regard.

Cheers Jim. Both Cantlay and Collin showed some stones near the end with their putting. Money back and a little more.

Yeah thanks Jim.

An odd and quirky week in golf this week, coming before the US Open next week (the qualifying for which is running at the moment: RIP Rickie again). The European Tour are running something called the 'Scandinavian Mixed', which is a tournament with 78 men and 78 women all playing on the same leaderboard for the same prize pot and trophy. This is a bit of a chin-stroker of a concept (I can't see how the men won't dominate, but I guess we'll see) and the bookies seem to agree, as they have thus far declined to put up a market at all. As such I will be giving that one a swerve and sticking to the PGA Tour event in the US this week.

Palmetto Championship

Normally we would have the Canadian Open this week, but for the second year running it's been cancelled as the Canadians are being a lot more tight about covid than the incredibly lax Americans are (it amazes me how few of them give a damn, and occasionally, as Jon Rahm found out, this comes back to bite you). For a replacement event, it's back to South Carolina for a hastily arranged tournament at Congaree. This is classic Carolinas sandy/swampy type territory, burned down by Sherman in 1865, and at some point after that someone decided to build a golf course on what was left. Coming directly before a major, the field is an unusual mix of the bottom-feeding guys you would normally only see in opposite field events, but also Dustin Johnson and a few other bigger names wanting a tune-up before Torrey Pines on the other coast. As ever with these new courses that no one in the field has played, research is required to find out who actually has played them, but off the books. That research, allied to the standard computer methods, leads me to this little squadron.

Fitzpatrick 14/1
Glover 30/1
Varner III 40/1
Werenski 80/1
Garnett 125/1
McGirt 600/1

Betfair exchange has it up but £0 has been staked on the market.

It sounds a bit mental.

Will they be using handicaps or something to help the women be able to compete? Able to tee off closer? Surely they're going to get smashed on the par 5s?

The women will be from forward tees (as they always are), but even then it is quite difficult to set up. For example if they set it up so the tee shots are landing in the same place then the men will always have a more lofted club in, so to equalise it they will need to have the women land the tee shots further up than the men to have the same club in. Even then, I'm pretty sure the men would be better with wedges and around the green, even if it's by less. So I am a bit curious to see how they end up doing it. The women playing are far fron the world's best, too.

Sky offering women only for it.

Talk to me about Kevin Kisner @Jimmy Floyd.

A player I like, and probably knows the territory over there, but has shown no form this year. His ball striking has receded to average tour level, which you can't afford when you're a shorter hitter. I'd want 66/1 or higher.

"It’s a golf course that really on paper does not suit my game," said regular visitor William McGirt, apparently confirming that view. "When you look at the scorecard and you see 7,800 yards, I’m not a bomber. So you have a very long golf course with no real penalty off the tee for spraying it."

Love the bluffing. :henn0rz:

I saw that Luke List had the course record too and thought, nah, it's not that easy. Somehow BC and I have both alighted upon HV3 so here's hoping the method works.

Am relenting and putting up four for the Scandi Mixed (men only market) to keep myself interested for the next two days. SkyBet are doing 5 places for 1/4 the odds.

Fox 16/1
Besseling 30/1
Kruyswijk 40/1
Aberg (am) 66/1

Euro 2020(1) bets:

£10 on BTTS in Italy/Turkey match @ 2.4

£5 on Lewandowski top scorer @ 26
£5 on England to finish third in their group @ 8.5
£5 on Czech Republic to win their group @ 11
£5 on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to score a headed goal each @ 13
£5 on Kane & Lukaku to score 3 or more, Yilmaz & Depay 2 or more and Ferran Torres 1 or more @ 8
£2 on Poland to reach the quarters & Lewandowski to score 5 or more @ 23
£1 on Turkey to reach the semis, Benzema top scorer & Bellingham best young player @ 301
£1 on Turkey to reach semis, Denmark win group B & Bellingham best young player @ 501
£1 on Kane & Mbappe 4 or more goals and Jota, Insigne & Yilmaz to score 2 or more @ 51.

I only feel confident in the Turkey/Italy BTTS tonight, I can't wait to see all the tournament bets crash and burn.

I’ve three free bets to use on the England matches, but dunno what to do.

So far my only bets are Hungary to score the fewest goals @5/1 and Kante player of the tournament @40/1

Oh and Netherlands to win it @14/1 but only cos I get a free £5 bet every time they win a group game.

Top team goalscorers:
Austria - Baumgartner @15
Denmark - Kjaer @67
Spain - Ferran Torres @4.5
Netherlands - Depay @2.5

Tournament goals:
Denmark - u5.5 @1.8
Poland - u4.5 @1.73
Croatia - u5.5 @1.8
Austria - u3.5 @2.2
Ukraine - u4.5 @1.83

Lukaku to outscore Mbappe @1.8
Netherlands Austria straight forecast @3

Here is my list of mug punts for Euro '21

Golden Boot: Robert Lewandowski @ 25/1 (4 places)
Exactly 131 goals scored: @ 18/1
Yann Sommer most clean sheets @ 18/1
North Macedonia to reach QF @ 16/1
Scotland out on penalties @ 14/1
Top Chelsea goalscorer Mason Mount @ 4/1
Austria to concede the most goals @ 16/1
Joao Felix Best Young Player @ 10/1
Total penalties scored: Over 14.5 @ 8/13
Wales last in Group A @ 11/10
Tournament forecast: 1 Portugal 2 France @ 40/1
Finland to score fewest goals @ 7/1
Group C most goals @ 9/2

I stuck a fiver on Turkey to win a couple week back. It is written.

US Open

Toggle Spoiler

For the first time since 2008, we are at Torrey Pines in San Diego for the US Open, the third major of the year - they come thick and fast at this point. The 2008 edition was a truly memorable one, with Tiger Woods holing his famous 'Expect anything different?' putt to force an 18 hole playoff with likeable New York journeyman Rocco Mediate, which Woodsy duly (though barely) won to claim the 14th and last major before it all went south for him. Torrey Pines is a familiar venue as it also hosts a regular PGA Tour event in January/February each year. However, the US Open is the self-declared 'toughest test in golf' so you can expect a much drier and tougher golf course than the one seen a few months back when Fat Pat Reed claimed his most recent victory.

Unlike the last two majors, the US Open (as the name suggests) takes its field (after the usual top 50 exemptions etc) from a series of open qualifying events. As such you get some right old randomers who manage to make it through alongside the more familiar names. The highest profile such event was last Monday in Columbus, where the last place in the field was decided by the carnage a 12 man playoff (going for 1 place). England's Ben Taylor holed his approach shot for an eagle to send the other 11 - including Rickie Fowler - packing. Fowler and other fallen names didn't make it but you will see appearances from Peru's Luis Barco, Costa Rica's Luis Gagne, and some classic American golfer regen names like Zach Zaback, Davis Shore and Wilson Furr.

In between my own schedule and the Euros, I hope to get as much viewing in as possible, and this week I have a quite simple six fancies to go with.

Xander Schauffele 16/1. Sooner or later, it has to happen for Xander at a major championship. Among the top players, he has consistently shown perhaps the greatest ability to peak at the right time for the majors. He's had 8 top 10 finishes at majors by the age of 27, and nowhere has he looked more comfortable than on the tough US Open setups, where in four stabs he has incredibly never finished below 6th place. Not only that, but he is in his home city of San Diego so will undoubtedly feel comfortable at a venue he knows well and where he finished in a tie for second place earlier this year. I find this price surprising.

Tony Finau 25/1. For a player whose continued failure to win is almost a running joke in golf circles - see this song which went viral last year - Tony has been a surprisingly profitable geezer for me, bringing home 9.3 of the 292.43pts I'm up this year. As such, when he came up on the computer's radar for this I was happy to plough in again. I have a sort of vision of him finally winning and it being a US Open (or maybe a Masters). The reason for this is he is quite simply better at golf than almost everyone. He has logged a cool ten top 10 finishes in majors, most of them more of the backdoor variety compared to Xander, but that's still no bad thing for an each way bet. I just hope at some point he gains a putting stroke and/or a temperament.

Joaquin Niemann 50/1. He has long been a favourite of mine, not just for his dreamy Chilean eyes but mainly because he has a phenomenally consistent golf game. He has yet to really turn up at a major but it has to happen some time and I don't see why it shouldn't happen at a venue like Torrey Pines where his sneaky distance and crisp iron play will be of great benefit. This price feels just long of right.

Jason Kokrak 60/1. This price, on the other hand, feels really quite long. Kokrak is a recent winner and has really come to the fore over the last year, apparently since changing his putting grip. This allowed him to start capitalising on his unsubtle length - he's more a Dodge Ram of golfers than a Ferrari Enzo. Nonetheless his win over (an admittedly bed-shitting) Spieth the other week will have given him confidence that his career is finally at a point where he can take on the big dogs. He'll have to have a good putting week but his game feels well inside this price.

Charley Hoffman 80/1. Hoffman has had a quietly very good year on Tour - 29th on the points list without a win - and at 44 the chances are starting to run out for someone right on the cusp of being a journeyman or not. Four wins in his career is a good record and the first of them also came in southern California, where we are this week, albeit inland. Hoffman's main claim to fame is being the first round leader at the Masters - something he has done several times - and then fading at the weekend. In fact, his best major finish was 8th at the US Open in 2017 and he's made the cut at six of the seven US Opens he's contested. With his ball-striking form the way it is, I can't resist a punt.

Chan Kim 500/1. Although an American citizen, Kim plays primarily in Japan and had to qualify for this from scratch. He did so with aplomb, winning the Rolling Hills qualifying site with aplomb at -10 from two rounds. What I cannot understand is why an accomplished golfer ranked as highly as 83 in the world is slumming it at 500/1 along with all the plebs ranked around 300 places lower. Sure, the OWGR can overvalue wins in Japan, but wins are wins, and they mean you are better than the competition, so I find it mystifying. Perhaps all the Kims blend into one another and people without a strong American presence can be overlooked. Although unlikely, a top 11 (Skybet pays this many places) seems far from impossible and I will be having a piece.

(I may take a break after this one, I get so busy in the summer which limits my research time each week. We'll see)

All in one last time. Thanks for the past few months Jim.

Apologies if this has been asked before but do you do level stakes for every pick?

+293 in 6 months is crazy. Thanks for sharing.

No he doesn't

I don't. I stake 5pts e/w and distribute them. This probably isn't an optimum method so I don't share it but it is used for the overall calculations. Last week's for an example:

Fitzpatrick 14 1.50
Glover 30 1.00
Varner III 40 1.00
Werenski 80 0.75
Garnett 125 0.50
McGirt 600 0.25

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ambling-addict

Some great rides described in that :cool:

Anyone who likes a bit of group permutations bingo:

At 5pm tonight, Australia play Jordan in the final round of their World Cup qualifying group. Jordan must win this game to have any chance of progressing to the next round.

At 7pm, Saudi Arabia play Uzbekistan knowing the Jordan result - if Jordan haven't beaten Australia, then a draw takes both Saudi/Uzbek through. Currently 21/10 the draw. Might be worth getting on early if Australia go a couple ahead in play. My only concern about going early is I don't know if Aus (evidently the stronger side on paper) will roll over for Jordan.

Thoughts on Homa? @Jimmy Floyd?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Manc

Thoughts on Homa? @Jimmy Floyd?

---

I'd want three figures minimum.

If we somehow end up only drawing against Iraq, MBS will threaten a chainsaw massacre on all the Saudi players if they don't throw the Uzbek game. They'll do anything to stop us from progressing.

I've got you through with a point as long as Jordan don't win.

Must be a new world record for permutations. Mood said to be 'relaxed' in the Lebanon camp.

Hungary haven’t scored yet. :youpi:

Got BTTS here. Come on Pen-land.

It'll never last but got to get a comment in here whilst Dickie Bland shares the lead of the US fucking Open well into his second round.

He is on the ultimate divorced dad mad bender. Nearly 30 years of utter mediocrity and now suddenly lighting up everything he touches.

Don't think any of my runners will be in it, but this US Open final day is setting up to be absolutely brilliant.

I was fed whispers of Koepka earlier in the week. Praying for a bottle job.

Early start in the morning. Shaping up to be a problem.

I love it when Bryson fucks up.

Rahm and the chokemaster general going toe to toe to the finish line with a whiny Bryson wheezing his way back into the pack, this is what major Sundays are all about.

That bunker shot :drool:

The scientist is on the ropes.

While part of me would love it if Rahm won here I'd also be a little gutted that it would happen when THE COMPUTER isn't on him.

Although I do think that would be very fitting for Rahm.

I was out of my chair for both those putts on 17 and 18, so yeah, fuck Rahm, but also, love Rahm. What a player.

That was brilliant.

I didn't think he'd get either of those.

Louis has choked.

He already has the grand slam of runner ups in majors and now halfway through a second one. Absolute all time great of finishing second.

I wish we could have been there for the final Rahm train. :-(

He was just too short to back, 7/1 or something. Christ if I'd been on him I might have woken up the neighbourhood for his putt on 17.

I'll have a little break now and be back for the Open. Had a slightly meh run recently which has taken the 2021 profits down to about 65%.

Both Rahm and Hideki picking up majors does feel a bit of an affront to the computer, but then I guess that's how it works.

Feel a bit for Little Louis and his grand slam of second places (seeing him up against Bomb and Gouge is quite funny), but then I've always resented him as a bit of a fraud for that Open win when he just scampered off in the best conditions of both first days.

Has the meh run coincided with whichever of Yev or Boydy joined the train most recently? Coolers!

Also, loved that ball up a tree moment. That was it for me though, west coast US Majors are a bit of a pain in the backside from a Monday morning perspective.

Yeah, I'm on about 5 hours' sleep but it was worth it to see someone actually win a major rather than be handed it by crumpling arseholes as is normally the case.

The main enemy of the computer are game-raising bastards who come out of nowhere after shoddy runs of form, Rahm wasn't that (he was just too short) but Hideki and Mickelson definitely were, as have a few others been.

I am back. Watched the epic 8 hole playoff on Sunday and was just itching to have been on one of them. I live for the chase.

Rocket Mortgage

Only 8 events left on the PGA Tour now, only 4 of which are 'regular' events, of which this is one. The build-up to the Open is very much in swing and the Americans are already having a cry about the British covid rules being more stringent than theirs (if there's one thing the yanks are great at, it's living under a rock). As such this event in Detroit has a very weak field and it's those, like several last week, desperate for a late run to keep their Tour status for next year who are worth keeping an eye on. That is with one exception. Bryson DeChambeau plays this event due to his personal sponsorship from the exciting-sounding Rocket Mortgage, and last year he basically walked it on a course which while not necessarily rewarding length per se, did reward his 'hit it and find it' philosophy, with very little trouble where he misses it. This should give him and other streaky bombers an advantage this week.

DeChambeau 7/1
SW Kim 45/1
Bradley 45/1
Grillo 50/1
Pak 400/1

Irish Open

Last year the Irish Open was a low key affair played in a wet September slot in front of more cows than people. This year, Mount Juliet provides a slightly less bleak and more conventional test as the first of the Open warm-ups in Europe, and this is a proper field, too: McIlroy, Lowry, Tommy, Bez, Kaymer, as well as the likes of Dick Bland and the rest of the weekly Euro cast. A proper menagerie of stars (including Rahm and a load of top Americans) join them in Scotland next week, but this should be a good event in its own right and with McIlroy a bit short at 9/2, I've gone for a much-loved computer winner of the past, alongside some classy grinders.

Bezuidenhout 16/1
Pieters 50/1
Hill 50/1
Fichardt 80/1
MW Lee 150/1

All e/w

Bonus bet: the Ric Flair double - Si Woo Kim and Min Woo Lee to win - about 7,000/1

Ric Flair double :lol:

That double is incredible.

All over the double!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry

Euro 2020(1) bets:

£5 on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to score a headed goal each @ 13

---

My only pre-tournament bet still standing. The rest were pretty tragic.

Just waiting on Lukaku.

On the golf.

Putnam for the Rocket @150/1.

Bryson appears to have sacked his caddie during the warm up, this could be a wild ride.

SCIENCE working again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Bryson appears to have sacked his caddie during the warm up, this could be a wild ride.

---

He's +2 thru 3 and hitting 3 wood out of deep rough on 4. RIP Bryson.

The Woos however starting 67-68 :cool:

https://i.ibb.co/yy5FFP3/mwl.jpg

There is no need to feel afraid.

Really wish I'd done it EW.

More frustration last week with four (I think) top 20s but nothing landing.

Scottish Open

The European event gets top billing this week because for the first time since Covid, it genuinely deserves it. This has long been the traditional warm-up event for the Open, but rarely can I remember a field as strong and deep as this on our shores outside the Open itself. There was no Open last year and so a lot of the newer American stars find themselves with zero experience of golf over here: the cold, the wind, polite applause and guttural roars from the fans rather than the whoopin', hollerin' and get-in-the-holes that you have in the States. Rahm, Thomas, Morikawa, Schauffele, McIlroy, Hatton and Fitzpatrick headline but there's also a real depth including first-timers in Europe like Zalatoris, Burns and Scheffler. The only disappointment is that for covid reasons, they aren't using one of the Scottish links classics, but instead Renaissance, which provides a test but not of the authentic seaside sort. If it rains - and for the clue here look to the name of the tournament - scores could be pretty low.

Morikawa 14/1
Conners 40/1
Palmer 66/1
Rozner 80/1
V Perez 100/1 nap
Kawamura 175/1


John Deere Classic

As the great and the good depart the US for a couple of weeks, we now move into the truly yee-haw section of the American golf season as those who have not made the Open stay behind for a few of their own hoedowns in the late season scramble for career salvation and tour status next year. Nowhere is this better encapsulated than at the John Deere Classic, sponsored for decades by the tractor folk and hosted somewhere deep in the Midwest. There is also the carrot of an Open spot for the winner - usually JD put on a charter flight to take them from Illinois to whichever rugged windswept part of the coastal British Isles they need to get to. The field here tends to be weak and unusually for a full PGA Tour event, the bottom quarter or so are genuine no hopers. For this one I've stuck to those who have something to gain here, as well as wily veteran Steve Stricker.

Stricker 50/1
Stanley 60/1
Howell III 66/1
Laird 125/1
Villegas 250/1
Shelton 250/1

All e/w

Vegas 66/1
Kizzire 45/1

Not really sure where to post this but here will do.

I’ve mentioned before that I follow a tipster for horse racing. I’m in a telegram chat group and everyone chats pretty much all day. Jon Oster used to be in it. Anyway, a “pornstar” called Elle Brook has joined, presumably in a desperate attempt to get horny perverts to subscribe to her only fans or whatever she uses. :cab: It’s a bit weird. Posted a pic of herself naked besides and England shirt with a dildo halfway up her bits. Then when called out on whether it was genuinely her she posted a video saying the name of the group chat. Then today she posted her miming along to Three Lions, with [presumably fake] jizz dripping out her mouth.

Most of the group seem to be enjoying it but when I’m scrolling through the chat looking for insider tips (“info”) I’ve now gotta be wary in case my wife catches a glimpse of some dolled up girl with cum in her mouth. :moop:

DM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kikó

DM.

---

NSFW: https://anonfiles.com/ReYdyc5euf/IMG_2533_MP4

She's really exploring all revenue streams. Fair play.

I'm need to see the rest of the evidence to be sure.

Does this chat cover the national hunt season? If so I want in.

Min-Woo couldn't do this last week?

Slabhead to score please :happycry:

Obviously on Minwoo a week early, fucking raging. At least Palmer came home.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Obviously on Minwoo a week early, fucking raging. At least Palmer came home.

---

A lad in my betting group had €50on him 150/1. Four and a half Gs, motherfucker. Obviously aftertimed seeing some YouTube video of him tearing it up at St Andrew’s.

Three Lions 2022 Christmas Number One?

The Open

After a two-year wait, the best tournament in golf (for my money) is finally back and despite various types of Covid chaos, the field is still as strong as you would hope for a major championship. Britain has a far stricter covid regime than America does - over there, once you're vaxxed it's basically pandemic over for you. Here, regardless of vaccination status, we have heavy restrictions especially in professional sport and especially where contact tracing is concerned, something that has put a few yank noses out of joint. Hideki won't be playing and nor will Bubba Watson, Kevin Na or Zach Johnson. Matthew Wolff has also withdrawn for 'unspecified reasons', while there's another reason for the absence of Sungjae Im and Siwoo Kim - they are preparing for the Olympic tournament in a couple of weeks, which for them as Koreans is far more important than any major championship, because a medal will get them out of military service and thus allow them an unbroken tour career, something which tends to ruin most Korean golfers in their prime.

Anyway, back to Sandwich on the Kent coast, which saw two surprise winners in its most recent Opens, with Darren Clarke winning in 2011 and Ben Curtis in 2003. Sandwich is an old links which tend to play pretty firm whatever the weather - although as I type this on Monday it is shitting it down across the south, things should dry out as the week goes on and a sunny weekend is in prospect. Wind speeds don't look like getting up to anything outrageous so the carnage of 2003 should be avoided, but it will still be a tough test with a shit ton of blind shots (which pampered pros hate) and nasty hay waiting for errant shots.

I haven't had time to write the usual essays on this one but the research has gone in and spat out the following seven names for each-way backing (11 places with Skybet):

Oosthuizen 25/1
Fitzpatrick 33/1
Reed 35/1
Grace 50/1
Fowler 66/1 (shoot me)
Cink 125/1
Senior 500/1

And these side bets:

Top Japanese: Hoshino 5/2
Top Amateur: Bairstow 11/2
Richard Bland top 20: 6/1
Richard Mansell top 40: 11/2
Jack Senior top 40: 11/2
Darren Clarke top 40: 6/1

Love the Grace and Oosthuizen picks. Thoughts on Koepka?

What betting sites are people using in this day and age? Looking for value and a clean app.

I very very very nearly included Koepka. Of those priced under 20/1 he would be my pick.

Can you get odds on a 1-2 finish?

Skybet have a dual forecast market, yeah, imagine others would too.

I've moved most of my golf stuff over to them now as they get odds up on time on a Monday.

I've gone Oosthuizen, Grace & Leishman all E/W.

As Morikawa steams into an unanswerable lead, it should come as no surprise to recall that I backed him last week. Every fucking time.

Grace with an eagle at the 7th. There's hope yet.

A nice quad from him at the 9th to crush said hope.

I have to say, the most satisfying aspect of tipping up golf is when you plump for a Jack Senior at 500/1 and after 30 holes he is doing the business. It rarely sticks the landing (these people are 500/1 for a reason) but it reassures you that the methodology is sound.

Louis on course for another comfortable runner-up finish which will be OK.

Louis :cool:

Well placed but I am left rather wishing that instead of Morikawa, Spieth and Dustin Johnson within four it was, say, Keith Mitchell, Ted Potter Jr and Frank Lickliter II.

What on earth happend to Fowler?

I'm all in on Louis now. A place and I'll get my money back, a win sees me £150 up.

Louis. :(

I can kind of take that, he needed 67 for a playoff, not sure he had that in him. Morikawa was supreme all week. Bit disappointed I discounted him from the running but I thought he hits it too straight and would need a year or two under his belt to win this one.

He's heading for a hell of a career, what a player.

Indulging myself with 7 picks in each this week as there are quite a lot of 3 figure dallies in there.

3M Open

Grillo 30/1
Todd 60/1
Dahmen 70/1
Kodaira 150/1
Hoge 175/1
McCumber 400/1
Pak 400/1

Cazoo Open supported by Gareth Bale (lol)

Van Tonder 33/1
C.Kim 40/1
Geary 50/1
Guerrier 80/1
Farr 125/1
A.Fitzpatrick 125/1
Leon 125/1

Cheers Jim, hopefully a good weekend.

In semi-related news I'm now inside the top 80 in the global fantasy Euro Tour standings (not sure how many play, around 50,000 perhaps), now absolutely bricking it with my picks for that each week. Christ knows how those at the top of the fantasy PL global rankings psychologically deal with it. Every wrong move is a bomb.

Captained the last two major winners - Morikawa as a result of forgetting to change my team after the previous week. It's only the true greats who scale the heights.

I'm disappointed that McCumber isn't actually "McCucumber" which is what I first read his name as.

The Hundred (cricket)

Oval Invincibles 11/2 outright

Feeling Bubba.

Rhys Enoch top 20, 5/1
Jack Davidson EW (6p), 400/1

Won a grand on the Postcode Lottery today, which was nice.

:cool:

Did you make the TV ad?

No door knock, just a shiny gold envelope from the postman. Was genuinely confused until I opened it.

Probably the worst Thursday in living memory for the computer. I need to stop backing streaky knobheads.

Any insight into the Olympics @Jimmy Floyd?

I haven't checked the market yet (will look tomorrow) but my fancies without seeing odds are Morikawa, the two Japanese and the two Koreans.

Iran +40.5 in the basketball against USA. Thank me later.

Olympic golf (men)

To win gold:
Morikawa 7/1
Hovland 11/1
Matsuyama 12/1

To win a medal:
Matsuyama 4/1
SW Kim 12/1
Pereira 20/1

Do the Koreans avoid military service if they medal?

Yep. I'm undecided whether that will propel them forth or add too much pressure, but it's a factor and they both missed the Open to prepare. The only precedent is 2016 when Ben An and Jeunghun Wang had the same prize on the line and neither top 10'd, albeit these two are much better players. Sungjae is young enough for another stab in Paris, but his form has been a bit patchy so I'm not taking him at the prices. Siwoo, a streaky, mad motherfucker, offers better value.

Hideki won the Asian amateur on this course and has also presumably been preparing. Riyuka Hoshino is slightly too shit I think, on reflection.

After missing a 28/1 winner yesterday (I got 9s) due to not having overnight Best Odds Guaranteed I decided to buy a Bet365 account, and it’s already paid dividends. 2 accounts for £25 seems expensive for what it is but I’ve already made about £125 extra than I would have without it, so happy days.

And I’ve got a backup if this one ever gets limited, albeit unlikely cos I’m sticking to £25 a point.

Matsuyama and Pereira look like they could come good.

Absolutely typical of my current run, had it surrounded from all sides and ended up with fuck all. Had 2 of the 3 medal picks miss a putt for bronze, and if Hideki could literally putt at all he would have won gold. He really is a pain in the arse.

I will soldier on and do WGC Memphis later.

Women's Olympics: Tavatanakit 20/1 EW

A triple helping of failure this week. 4, 5 and 6 players respectively.

WGC Fedex St Jude

Probably the most vanilla of the WGCs, despite boasting almost all of the world's top 50, this is mainly notable for the time Lee Westwood won it while being plastered with UPS logos, something which made Fedex cry so much that they refused to invite him to a later tournament they sponsored, and also brought in a rule that no PGA Tour player is allowed to negotiate a new sponsorship deal with UPS or DHL (Westy prowls the fairways in his UPS shirt to this day).

Morikawa 12/1
Cantlay 25/1
Ancer 45/1
Harman 55/1

Barracuda Championship

To my knowledge the only PGA Tour event named after a fish. This is in Reno, and played in the Stableford format, i.e. you score points for birdies rather than being over/under par. It's also vital for many down the order chasing their cards for next year - the grim reaper is coming for the careers of plenty in this tournament if they don't play well this week.

Wise 35/1
Dahmen 40/1
Knox 66/1
Whaley 100/1
McCumber 150/1

Hero Open

This is being played at Fairmont St Andrews, i.e. not St Andrews, but a hotel nearby. We're now into the quiet period on the European Tour while the Americans climax their season. I was looking down some of the lesser known names in this (weak) field and found one Robin 'Tiger' Williams, a black lad from Peterborough with what I think is a self-awarded nickname. No pressure eh lad. Also playing are amateur champion Laird Shepherd - a rare example of someone named for two different jobs in a medieval Scottish village - and veteran Scottish journeyman Graham Fox. Trying to find material on Fox I could only manage this, from the horse's mouth: "Took up the game as a 12 year old with a group of friends at West Kilbride because there was nothing else to do in our village." Inspirational.

Kawamura 22/1
Besseling 33/1
G.Porteous 66/1
Winther 66/1
Howie 125/1
von Dellingshausen 300/1

Not fancy Mito? @Jimmy Floyd

Market has picked up on him now. Lovely player. Has the same swing as Niemann which is fairly spooky, maybe they had the same coach back home.

Ancer :cool:

That was a tidy play-off.

His and Burns' approach shots on the final playoff hole were brilliant.

Stunned that Matsuyama's putt on the first playoff hole didn't go down, just a bit too much pace on it.

Abe :cool:

I love the Mexicans, me.

Might yet get a place out of Whaley or Dahmen too, though following the scoring in that is a brainfuck. We are BACK.

Yeah I've looked at that leaderboard a couple of times and I genuinely have no idea what's going on.

It's two points for a birdie and -1 for a bogey, though I'm not sure what happens with the doubles/triples, and the course is seriously easy so it's flying all over the place.

Fuck it, got to post the winning song for Abe as it's such a banger.

Toggle Spoiler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6xIHbSQ85s

Whaley dropped the ball :(

Wyndham Championship

One of my favourite American tournaments of the year, and not because of the course or the championship itself, which is just another golf tournament somewhere in America (North Carolina, in this case). This week is great because of what's at stake, as this is the final tournament before the playoffs and the 125 spots in those playoffs are on the line, but so are many people's careers. The magnificently meritocratic nature of golf means that if you finish outside that top 125, and are not a recent winner or exempt in some other way, your time as a PGA Tour golfer could well be up. The highest profile golfer facing such a fate is, perhaps surprisingly, Tommy Fleetwood, who despite being ranked 35 in the world is only 136th on the American list and so must, by my reckoning, finish at worst top 15 to have a chance. Many other less famous names face a similar challenge. As well as that struggle, there are also various sub plots. Will Zalatoris, 2nd in the Masters, is notionally ranked 26th but because he is not an official PGA Tour member (until next year) he will not be eligible for the playoffs unless he wins this event. Bob MacIntyre needs a top five or so to have a chance of earning his card for next year. Whatever happens, there are usually celebrations for plenty and tears for others come Sunday night.

Oosthuizen 14/1
Harman 25/1
Reavie 80/1
Stanley 110/1
Garnett 125/1
Percy 200/1

Cazoo Classic

Is there any sport left that Cazoo will not sponsor? Their list goes as follows: Aston Villa, Everton, the Rugby League World Cup, the Hundred, half of the snooker tour, the EFL, the Derby and the St Leger horse races, the PDC darts, the Welsh rugby team, the Welsh Open golf the other week, and now this, effectively the English Open. Their marketing budget must be astronomical/dodgy to have instantly monopolised such a huge proportion of UK sport in this way. Still, someone has to pay the bills, and it's a car website. This event is played at 'London Golf Club', which, as you can probably guess, is not in London. It hasn't been used on the European Tour for a while but I vaguely remember the last time in 2014, mainly for the fact that it's very close to Brands Hatch and you can hear cars or bikes buzzing around there in the background.

Kawamura 25/1
Fox 35/1
van Tonder 60/1
Whitnell 80/1
De Jager 100/1
Enoch 300/1

Villegas @250/1. Talk to me.

I think a top 30 or so might be enough for Camilo, and he hasn't been on top form recently, so no each way appeal for me. Price is about right probably. I hope he does it.

4 points on PSV to win.

Midtjylland have half a team and PSV stuffed Ajax 4-0 in their community shield.

#freemoney

93rd minute goal to make it 1-0 to PSV. Yes!

A traditional August bet that I have never come close to winning but gives some rooting interest during the year. Fourfold on the 4 English league champions.

Man City / Fulham / Rotherham / Newport - 1,200/1

Think the most I've had was 2/4 one year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Wyndham Championship

Oosthuizen 14/1
Harman 25/1
Reavie 80/1
Stanley 110/1
Garnett 125/1
Percy 200/1

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Louis a late withdrawal (not for the first time...) so we'll just have to go in with the famous five. I dreamed that Cameron Percy came 2nd, if that's any help (concerning, both on a base level, and for the fact that I don't even know what Cameron Percy looks like).

Is Sabbatini on the juice?

My contacts are investigating a possible doping programme that may have spread all the way through Slovakian golf. Results of the investigation when we have them.

Between the 'worst putt ever hit' and Olympic silver, he's had quite the 12 months. EDIT: And facetiming Morikawa's girlfriend of course, how could I forget that.

Sky Boost Toney Anytime 3/1 and Mari starting: free money.

Whitnell (who looked great for a place today) and Enoch fucking up is annoying.

Had that one surrounded and yet again the cunts can't play golf on Sundays.

It's so annoying when I nail the logic of tipping for a tournament and the dickheads all bottle it. If you get it wrong then fine, but bottle jobs do my head in, and golf is chock full of them, it's what makes it such a great watch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd

Had that one surrounded and yet again the cunts can't play golf on Sundays.

It's so annoying when I nail the logic of tipping for a tournament and the dickheads all bottle it. If you get it wrong then fine, but bottle jobs do my head in, and golf is chock full of them, it's what makes it such a great watch.

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Both were joint top after day 2 IIRC.

Henley missing out on the playoff despite leading all weekend was a thing of beauty. Kisner taking it down secured me a pretty penny.

I love Kisner. He should be in every US Ryder Cup team and they will be idiots when they overlook him again this time.

The Northern Trust

The mega-long covid special PGA Tour regular season is finally over and now it's time for the first of three 'playoff' events. 125 players have qualified during the course of the year and only 70 will go on to the second event next week. This one is at Liberty National in New Jersey, a fairly anodyne track noted more for its backdrop (featuring the New York skyline and eponymous statue) than for its legendary golf holes. The field is obviously as good as it gets and with golf as strong and deep as it currently is, it's hard to imagine a surprise winner, happy though the likes of Anirban Lahiri, Peter Malnati and Matthew Nesmith will be to have reached this point. Of more low-note interest might be the scrap to make the top 70 and progress to next week: names like Bubba Watson, Ian Poulter and Adam Scott are currently on the outside of that, while Fitzpatrick, Hatton and Lowry may be among those clinging on for dear life. I'm going with a method this week that is very unlike me and selecting just two players. They share a first name and a mother tongue but not too much else. I have an overwhelming fancy for the first name, while the longer shot of the two is more of a (data-based) hunch.

Rahm 9/1
Vegas 125/1

Czech Masters

Set against the glamorous dollar orgy that indulges the world's top players in America at this time of year, the European Tour often seems rather quaint and parochial, and it doesn't get any more parochial than the D+D Real Czech Masters. I have always wondered what the trade of title sponsor D+D Real might be; a visit to their website offers little in the way of clues. As always on the European Tour, there are some glorious surprises when I look at the entry list: who should have hot-footed it from his failed attempt to make the playoffs than Slovak sensation Rory Sabbatini, the boy from Bratislava doing his best as always for the betterment of central European golf. Also playing is Henrik Stenson; no one quite knows why he is in the Czech Masters, so theories abound that a Ryder Cup vice captaincy announcement is incoming, with captain Harrington also present. Otherwise, this will be a fairly bog standard Euro event with a healthy contingent of Czechs and Slovaks spicing things up, and I'm on one of those alongside some more familiar (largely saffa) names.

Burmester 16/1
Leon 33/1
Ritchie 66/1
De Jager 70/1
Bertasio 80/1
Lieser 300/1

I’ve not backed for ages so I’ve backed these on my otherwise dormant William Hill account, including max bet on Ondraj Lieser, for £6k return.

I like the look of Scheffler.

Money down for Garcia 90/1.

Late addition for the true believers.

Boise Open

Whaley 70/1
Smalley 80/1

Garcia with a triple bogey at the first. Thanks for the ride lad.

Make that a quadruple. Pack away the clubs.

It would be quite fun if he played badly enough in this playoff stretch to play himself out of the Ryder Cup wildcard that he is currently nailed on to get because 'experience'.

Fixed match alert. 9/1

FK Indjija 2 - 1 Rad Belgrade

Kicks off at 16:30

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

Fixed match alert. 9/1

FK Indjija 2 - 1 Rad Belgrade

Kicks off at 16:30

---

Lets have a pop then.

Stick to animations.

I was lied to by the random WhatsApp number!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Baz

I was lied to by the random WhatsApp number!

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:D

I’ve figured it out.

Find and join one of the many “WhatsApp/Telegram bet group chats” that are all over Twitter and telegram.
Message everyone individually saying you have paid for a result to be fixed and will share it with them, if they promise to pay you XX% of their winnings each time.
Send a different completely guessed result for an obscure match to everyone who replies.
If by chance one of your predictions is correct, that person MIGHT send you some money in the hope of getting another “fixed result” guaranteed win.

You could probably then rinse them and say ‘I’ve proven myself as a betting fixer, pay me £100 and I’ll send you three more results all for tomorrow’ and then block them when they’ve sent you some Bitcoin for the random guess you made.

Who’s in?

You haven't invented something here. This is classic fraud.

Seems like a lot of work for a hundred quid.

Also, wouldn't the better play to be to give them a result you could lay for that second fixed bet? So you can coin all of their false investment. Extra double lol when it comes in and bankrupts you.

Odds on Rahm bottling? @Jimmy Floyd

I'll take him to win from here over any of the chasing bed wetters. Finau ffs.

Burmy with a place which is better than nowt I suppose.

Here comes the Tony Finau CHARGE. What could possibly go wrong.

:uhoh:

Rahm's proper chopped it round the last few. Tony, it's yours to lose now.

His last few tee shots have been abysmal.

Really intrigued to see how Tony manages to lose it from here.

He's done it. Beaten by a Finau win. I'll take the place money out of the bank and burn it, there's no coming back from this.

Big Jon strikes again.

I think he and I are going to have to go our separate ways now. Was in complete command for 67 holes of that tournament, then turned into a cunt for the last five.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3mdHmhI3cs