All school children back from the 8th March. Watch that R rocket again.
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All school children back from the 8th March. Watch that R rocket again.
I'm undecided on how much the R will rocket, but at least it shouldn't kill people this time.
I'm selfishly miffed at adults seemingly being sacrificed on the altar of all kids back. Guess it's my fault for not having kids. Just let me meet a mate on the golf course ffs.
I’ve a Nicolas Cage mask so I don’t mind wearing one.
Fear of work.Quote:
Originally Posted by mo
Too right fella, I love this getting paid to lounge around at home all day shiz.
lol at the people fretting about a fourth wave once we open back up as if all bets wouldn't be off if it roars back in winter and overwhelms the vaccine[s].
There are people who are staking their professional reputations on there being a killer fourth wave asap, which must be a very strange way to earn a living.
And the consequences for being wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
The top 4 risk categories must be pretty much done by now. Something would have to go really fucking wrong for things to get as bad as they did this time. You could force people to open all doors with their mouths and I still don't think we'd manage 1000 deaths a day from here.
Nothing, which is probably why they're doing it. Worth a long odds doom punt just in case you end up looking like a genius and get to go on zoom calls with glamorous names like Fauci and Dr Ted Ross by autumn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Magic
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56058744
:harold:Quote:
He said the R-rate was between 0.7 and 1 and, as of Friday, the seven-day totals for admissions, cases and fatalities were down by between a fifth and a quarter respectively.
But developments needed to be monitored "in real time", making it difficult to give guarantees or be precise about an end of April or beginning of May date for easing, he said.
The problem with CRG (who seem to have morphed seamlessly from 'researching' Europe to 'researching' Covid) is they want a set end date for ALL restrictions, which is batty and counter-productive. Such a dogshit argument gets in the way of the real question which is why does the government seem to be setting out a far slower pace of loosening restrictions than it had last year when we didn't have vaccines.
Thank fuck we're bringing real time into the equation, if only we'd done that earlier, I can sleep (work and have fun on my own) easy now.
The end of April is 10 weeks away. Ten weeks. 10 fucking weeks. :sick:
Jim - If you don't factor in the impact from further vaccines how many cases/deaths will we have a day by then based on the current trajectory?
90% of them will no doubt be care environment caused, but I'd be curious to know.
626 cases and under 100 deaths a day is where we were on that glorious 4th July last year.
My best conservative estimate at the moment: between 600-1200 cases, and between 15-30 deaths per day at 30 April.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yevrah
This does not take into account either vaccine effect, or the possible effects of loosening restrictions (e.g. opening schools) between now and then.
Case data from last year is questionable as our testing wasn't great until the autumn, but deaths data is pretty unquestionable.
Given they don't know for certain what will happen when the schools reopen properly maybe that's where the current caution comes from. Add in the vaccine impact and pubs/restaurants will probably be the start of May.
Oh well, 10 weeks.
That's my best guess for hospitality too. I'm probably just being selfish as I don't have kids and likely never will, so have no personal investment in schools opening asap, but I don't know why on the altar of this I will be restricted to being able to sit on a park bench or have a picnic with my (non-existent) household until the end of March, which is 6 weeks away.
I still don't know if we're getting much of a vaccine effect. Cases are falling at the same rate across the board and the Israel numbers are due to the over 60s having two shots. Maybe there's a tipping point but we might not see any effect until lockdown is eased.
Exactly, imagine if we had such freedom from mistakes in our roles.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
We are. Just watch.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shindig
I only skim read it but presumably those unlabelled graphs were suggesting we've already 1,000 fewer deaths due to it.
We have 1,000 fewer deaths due to something. What, who could possibly say.
1,000 fewer deaths than first wave assuming the two should mirror each other though which seems a strange assumption to make given the differences. I'm really not happy with this, less xDead and more "Least lives saved in the opponent's half".
Why should the two not mirror each other in shape? It's the same country and the same measurement, the only differences would be time of year, restrictions in place, and new variant, all of which should in theory mean a sharper fall in Lockdown 1 than in Lockdown 3 (though I've assumed they don't mean that).
Well like you say there are a shit ton of variables that might not justify a mirror image. Scientific reporting isn’t as easy as drawing up a graph and making a conclusion on it.
As above. The most significant variable of concern being I was under the impression mortality rate of the virus had significantly reduced due to improved treatments too.
That would be a good possible explanation, if the improved treatments had kicked in from the last 7 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don
7 consecutive days with separation of the two lines and a huge bump in the second graph is significant imo. Significant of what, who could say.
In any case, there are much smarter people than me on twitter doing age breakdown analysis and, yeah.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56062976
Vaccine moving on to the over 65's from tomorrow.
Yeah this can fuck off. Go to tiers from March and then ease down for the summer. This has to soften up - winter is done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yevrah
https://www.theguardian.com/world/co...ination-fiasco
God this cheered me right up. A cracking start to the week.
"The EU are doing better even though they are also doing the same thing about delaying the second dose."
Well, that showed us.
So 19% vs 1.5% on first doses is nothing to get excited about. But France’s 0.92% vs our 0.8% on second doses is why he’s telling us the EU have actually done great?
One of the most pathetic articles I’ve seen on The Guardian. How can he physically type out the words “delivering a better outcome than the UK”. Is he deranged?
Probably.
Never have I seen a bigger piece of pro-EU propaganda than that.
It's quite incredible. His numbers look accurate, his facts are accurate, but he's linked both together with words that try to portray a completely different picture.
It's called teleological reasoning. It is, quite literally, the operating policy in all aspects of EU matters. When trying to explain or interpret something, start where you want to end up, and work backwards.
We're starting again on second doses from the 23rd anyway, at which point I imagine we'll steam ahead of Europe on that front too.
I have to admit though there has been one point of absolute shambles since multiple vaccination centres opened up (at least in this region). There is no central booking system so the various centres are ringing round the people who don't have an appointment with them but with no way of knowing if they have an appointment elsewhere. This is obviously a massive waste of time and is making it difficult to find the patients who actually need an appointment.
The army's fault I suspect.
My parents had the Pfizer around 6 weeks ago.
i) Will their second jab definitely be Pfizer or is it pot luck?
ii) Is there a defined timeframe for the second jab to be administered in or is it pot luck?
i) Studeies are being done looking at mixing different vaccines for the first and second dose but their resuts will be a while yet, I'd imagine. So they should get a second Pfizer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don
ii) I think they are saying up to 12 weeks, at the moment. It'll probably come down to the supplies we have available.
Talk seems to be a bit of a supply dip in the rest of Feb but then a surge in March. I'd put my money on first half of April for Mr and Mrs Don.
My holiday in May has now been confirmed as cancelled. A tantrum is currently in progress.
I was able to book my second jab as soon as I had booked my first.
Website said to leave 10-12 weeks so I went for the 12th week.
Today is the first sub-10k cases day since September. Deaths and hospitalisations crashing too.
Coward virus on the run.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56070698
This is a proper racket. :happycry:
However:
"We did 12 days in a five-bedroom house over Christmas when we were in quarantine and that was pretty horrific."
:lol:
Tripple the price Bozza.
Alright love, all complaints rendered null and void.Quote:
"We did 12 days in a five-bedroom house over Christmas when we were in quarantine and that was pretty horrific."
Aren't the UAE vaccinating like mad though? Surprised they'd be on any sort of travel ban list, well, sort of.
Donned by the edit.
Think I've done a month's worth of full-on isolating with the family since last August, which, when you step back and think about it, is quite a large proportion of that time period.
What a twatty question that is. The media is fucking itching to find somebody who dies after vaccination. They probably have a stash of stories ready to go for shops opening.
The media as it exists has probably had the biggest failure of any institution in this last year or so. They have the wrong people asking the wrong questions, constantly.
I'm sorry but this stuff is absolutely deranged.