On this, Watford, Swansea and Doncaster handicapsQuote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
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On this, Watford, Swansea and Doncaster handicapsQuote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
:thbup: Hope it was a big one.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Edit 2-1 :cry: 90+1
Bit annoying that, specially as Watford also seem to fuck up.
Also have money on BTTS in Nice - Napoli, not looking likely here.
Managed to cash out a few minutes before the goal was scored as it was part of an acca
FC FCSB vs Sporting CP @2
Southampton vs Wolves @9
CSKA, Liverpool and Copenhagen on the night for me at 4/1 or so. Suspect the Azeris will deny me.
This all came through nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Rosenberg @5 vs ajax
Ajax are food here.
Edit: i dont know their form or anyting, but ive seen dutch football be hurt by mutlipe shit teams the past few months. Ajax already lost first leg
Im like denzel at the end of training day. I cant lose.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Bang it all on Mayweather by decision.
Im on itQuote:
Originally Posted by Offshore Toon
I'm in a tricky situation because I should be careful with money but it feels like an amazing opportunity.
Oppourrunitys like this dont come around often. You get good odds on floyd and good odds on conor IF you beleieve he can pull it off.
Conor will have his success. He just has to take his options
Edit: i overheard a cunt who claims he got conor to win a round on all three judges scorecards @20. Cunt then refused to tell which bookie was offering this. Ive tried to find out but i cant see that online
Bastard. Yeah, if I hadn't already signed up to BetVictor I'd definitely do their 100/1 offer and then just bet on Mayweather to guarantee profit.
I cant find a valid link for the BetVictor offer. Send it me.
Same - looks like it's been withdrawn.
@51 - Either Fighter to be Examined by the Doctor (Paddypower) I think this is now mandatory in title fights in boxing, but not in non-title fights.
Hoping this one comes through. As stated in the boxing thread, a health check by the docter is trying to be enforced as a mandatory in title fights. It relies on one of the guys getting a savage beating, but hopefully it comes through.
edit: lost. not even close
Fuck it I'm on that. @41 on Betfair, because can't be fucked to sign up to anything else.
Mayweather to win is @1.25, is that really worth lumping on with such low odds?
Fuck it I'm on that. @41 on Betfair, because can't be fucked to sign up to anything else.
Mayweather to win is @1.25, is that really worth lumping on with such low odds?
Betting on what is surely a pre-scripted fight is for mugs.
Ipswich @3.4 vs fulham
No idea why the odds are so nice as fulham havent won in the league yet and ipswich have won all league games
Watford, Southampton, Ipswich & Swansea @ 65
Most places have Fulham as favourites to win the league.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Fulham have looked garbage this year, which is a bit surprising.
I've gone for a mis mash of the below teams in various combinations:
Dunfermline (@ Dumbarton)
Watford (vs Brighton)
Wigan (vs Portsmouth)
Cardiff (vs QPR)
Aberdeen (@Partick)
Ipswich (vs Fulham)
Cowdenbeath (vs Berwick)
Doncaster (@ Wimbledon)
Ayr (vs Arbroath)
Wolves (@ Brentford)
Swindon (vs Crawley)
Palace/Swansea 0-0 @8.5
Man Utd 2-0 @7
2-0 to Fulham now.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Apparently Ipswich had a load of injuries and only have full backs in defence today.
I've had a really bad day. :(
TTH's Championship predictions have been dreadful. No more.
I was 3/3 last Saturday and 1/2 this weekend.
I think there may be a fair few of them this season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reg
Bet365 are doing their £5 in-play offer on Liverpool-Arsenal. I won't be in to watch the game but will (try and) take advantage anyway.
Liverpool @2.15
Lost on everything today. Celtic the green cunts especially can go fuck themselves and all of ireland.
On:
- Liverpool win
- Over 3.5 goals
Also quadruple of
Napoli, Real Madrid, Milan & Spurs wins.
That came in thanks to their early payout offer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reg
In-play:
Liverpool to score the 4th goal @2.2
Nice. Might bet on Arsenal to lose more big games if the odds are similar.
Tennis double:
Shapovalov to beat Medvedev
Khachanov to beat Lu
@2.52
@12 lemar to join arsenal
Got that @17 on Betfair.
I've got a feeling they will fly in with the steal.
I don't, because they are all being a little demented, but worth a punt.
I managed to call pedro to chelsea as they hijacked the move from man utd. Won a chunk of money on that. Called gotze back to dortmund and hopefully, ive pulled this one off.
Shapovalov to beat Tsonga
Johnson to beat Edmund
double @6.3
Shapovalov had a really good run in Montreal. I'd have him as favourite to beat Tsonga and the bookies don't.
Edmund was apparently knackered after playing lots of matches before the US Open, and was drinking Coke in his first round match.
Yeah but none of the managers at those clubs were demented.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Anyway, the odds aren't bad so I'm on it too. Cudos to you if it get's through.
Down to 9/4 on Sky Bet for Lemar to Arsenal now. Good shout.
I'm keeping an eye on the Mahrez situation and possibly jumping in on that. It's 5/1 for him to stay at Leicester at the minute.
7/1 on Betfair.
That doesn't seem likely right now though.
It was 17/1 on betfair when I looked.
Sky Bet have added a market for 'Team to Sign Most Players on Transfer Deadline Day'
Odds vary from 5/1 to 33/1, and I've jumped on Newcastle at 18/1. It's dead heat rules so I think there'll need to be 3+ signings, but we're going to have a decent turnover so we'll see.
Cheers for that. I'm on Brighton @8.
I think I'm going to abandon doubles/trebles. It's always annoying when there's one bet that doesn't come off.
Sky reckon there's a £92m bid now on the table. It's happening, Sincere.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
I also got on the 17 as mentioned by Mazuuurk.Quote:
Originally Posted by Weaver
After logging back in to my betvictor account, it appears my history shows i got lemar @10. Im 100% it was @12 when i placed the bet. Are they changing the odds after the fact and trying to short change man?
Doesn't matter, he's going to Anfield.
Nae idea about African football, but the following is 25/1 in the Nigeria/Cameroon game:
BTTS, 4+ corners both teams and 20+ booking points both teams. Assume it's because it's African football but you're normally 10/1, if that, for that to come up.
under 2.5 goals in africa games is usually a certain
Overs in theirlast three meetings apparently. 1-1 shitfest will suffice.
Request a Bet on SkyBet if you fancy it.
The booking points is risky, African refs only give cards if they absolutely have to (unless it's a north African ref).
Worth a fiver. Hopefully the pub will have it on.
What are booking points?
A yellow is 10 points, straight red is 25 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Not far away, Waff, with 15 still to go.
Nigeria yellow and corner, Cameroon goal. Not happening.
Quite fancy a lay of Norway at home to Azerbaijan. Norway are these days an extremely minor footballing nation, akin to Armenia/Cyprus etc, and shouldn't be as heavily favoured as they are.
My money is on Malta tonight. Effiong is a don.
@3 poland to win
@5 robert to score 2 or more
@5 poland to win and over 2.5 goals
A four-fold lay of Norway, Scotland, Denmark and Romania is paying 24/1. I'm involved. Mon the wee minnows and Polaks.
I've lobbed £5 on Sterling to get booked @ 13/2. He's been clobbered a few times already and he'll react at some point, if it keeps up.
Got £4 on a six fold and £1 on Oxlade Chamberlain FGS/England 4-0.
Malta or Draw HT result comes home easily. More than doubled my money and that's before Malta FT comes in. :drool:
Robert got panned 0-4.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Holland vs Bulgaria @11
Holland are currently shit at club level. Hopefully it transfers over international too
Also on the double chance
Ive got a large bet on
France to winning at half time and over 2 goals
Switzerland to win
Dzeko to score anytime
@2.2
Switzerland just seem too good to be true here. Not sure what to make of it as they don't concede many but don't score a lot. Latvia might just set up shop.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Good point.
But im going to ignore your constructive criticism. Latvia are horrible and I like to think the swiss are just as efficient as the germans or those pocket knifes.
I've gone for France 3-0, Switzerland and Belgium.
Gives these games a bit of purpose. Belgium drew 1-1 with this lot last time but were missing KdB and Hazard.
Frenchies
Im hurt
Got a free £2 bet on skyBet so put it on Kane hat trick, 3-0 @ 100
Mon the fkn bookings.
DRC, Ivory, Egypt, Algeria, Mali, Burkina Faso all home wins tonight. 60/1
Picks for tomorrow?
I've decided to go for doubles/trebles rather than accumulators. Will put on a 5 or 6 fold BTTS as well I think tomorrow.
A Charlton / Blackburn double would basically cover me so hope that comes in.
Other than that, I've basically backed Wolves, QPR, Dunfermline, East Fife, Stirling, Raith, Leeds, Fleetwood, Dag&Red, Berwick and u3.5 goals in Dundee Utd/Dumbarton.
Someone tell me why I'm wrong.
Lena vs lorient @2.5
Real Madrid to win to nil is evens, with kickoff in 20 minutes. No Ronaldo, Modric, Bale (bench), Isco or Keylor, but their back four looks solid and they are still playing Benzema, Asensio and Lucas as a front three.
I only know one of Levante's players.
EDIT: That went well.
BTTS + Liverpool currently at 5/1
£10 on Liverpool
£5 on Liverpool & BTTS
£5 on Mane AGS.
Quite confident about my goals galore coupon today, with the exception of Dundee Utd vs Dumbarton. Come on Dumbarton!
30 goals could net me £7500.
I think Dundee Utd Dumbarton will be 0-0. Dumbarton appear to just park the bus and Dundee United are pretty crap at scoring so far. In fact...
Mancs/Scousers Over 2.5
Draw or Bournemouth
Yids
Chelsea
Southampton
United
50/1
Dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
I've got Spurs, Chelsea, Watford and Man Yoo for this afternoon.
I'm on a BTTS treble of:
Southampton v Watford - No
Leicester v Chelsea - Yes
Stoke v Man Utd - No
@5.51
Already going against my word of giving up doubles/trebles.
In play I also put:
£5 on Liverpool after the first
£10 on over 4.5 (at half time)
£5 on 6 or more goals (at half-time).
Also have:
£20 on Spurs/Chelsea
£5 on Watford
£5 on Bournemouth.
Couple of good looking bets from you gents this afternoon.
A Man U 2-0 shit fest would suit TTH to the ground.
£17.50 on over 2.5 goals & over 9.5 corners
£10 on United/United
£5 on Rashford AGS
£5 on Lukaku FGS, United to score 3 or more & over 10.5 corners
£5 on Lukaku AGS, United to score in both halves & Valencia to be carded
£5 on Pogba to score a header
£5 on United to win to nil, Lukaku to score & over 8.5 corners
£5 on Martins Indi, Matic & Zouma to be carded (made before the teams were released).
Get your money on 0-0 or a Stoke 1-0 win.
Ta muchly United.
Every cloud.
I'm needing three Sevilla corners in this second half for a cheeky RAB to come in. Everything else up already.
Rob Holding, with two fouls near the box already, is still 21/10 to get booked in this game, if anyone fancies.
Would've thought his next foul will see him in the book, and there's still 83 minutes to go.
EDIT: I'm sure Sterling got taken off at HT when I gave this shout then.
Brighton @3.8
Adam Smith first carded player @10.5
First decent win of the season tonight - £6.50 on a 10.23/1 double. Bournemouth :cool:
Chelsea win
Lukaku scores 1st & Man Utd win 2-0
double @22.75
Rotherham are a bunch of bastards for not scoring yesterday.
I'm far more successful betting on American football.
PSG v Bayern Munich @3.3
Besiktas look a bit long tonight.
Ive been folliwing this method with great success the past few weeks.
Home team win to nil
Away win and both teams to score
You bet that on every game so long as both odds are above 2.0, I take it?
Not every single game. Just the bets i like.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
My maddest mate has a treble of Roma, Man Utd, and PSG all to win and both to score. He's put a grand on it, and will get thirty three grand back if it comes in, which given the way the games are going now seems very likely.
Big man bet that is
That really is mental. Still, only needs 3 goals at this early stage.
CSKA v MU
Over 3.5 first half goals
@3
Surely they'll score another.
Edit: oh what a mug.
Gutted for John's mate. So close.
I thought he'd won it when Lewandowski hit that 94th minute free kick. I bet he's seething.Quote:
Originally Posted by John
Munich letting your son down is terrible
Yeah sure, I get not every single one - but you always place both bets on the same game I mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Though how do you pick them?
I did this for PSG-Bayern and Anderlecht - Celtic yesterday.
Worked in the PSG game, but not Celtic as Anderlecht couldn't score.
At the end of the day, my four bets of 30 meant -120, and the one bet that came through put me up I think got me 110, setting me back 10 at the end of the day.
Still, I'll try it a few more times and see.
I didn't think he meant putting both bets on the same game.
Really? Then what's method-y about it...? :confused:
He's just having success with those bets where he fancies the home or away team? They'd offer better odds than just wins, I guess.
Yeah this. Just whatever games i like the lookQuote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
That's no magical recipe for success :(
Was hoping for magic.
Arsenal result another one. Athletic Bilbao let me down though
I did it (the proper way, I suppose) again tonight on 4 games.
4 lost bets :(
I had Hoffenheim win, Villareal Win, Zenit win & Marseille win.
Might throw my last betting pennies on Monaco win to nil tonight, else Chelsea win to nil and Spurs win + BTTS tomorrow.
He'd covered himself with another grand on PSG and Celtic. He's not happy about missing out on the thirty three grand, but as you've no doubt guessed he doesn't really need the money.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
I'm on a foolish/genius treble of:
Watford
Leicester
West Ham v Swansea BTTS-No
@18.95.
Watford look good odds to me, they're @3.7 (on BetVictor at least).
---
1-0 Chelsea @11
Bet365 are doing their £5 in-play offer on Chelsea v Man City.
Scattershot again today. All low stakes.
1. St Mirren, Peterhead, Villa and Man Utd.
2. Morton and Peterborough
3. Motherwell and Bradford
4. Millwall, Preston, Coventry
5. BTTS: Arbroath/Alloa, Albion/Raith, Montrose/Clyde, Invernesss/QotS, Forest Green/Accrington
6. Team to score in both halves: St Mirren, Arbroath, Raith, Peterhead, Man Utd
7. Blackburn, Man Utd to win to nil, Preston to win to nil, Accrington and BTTS, Arbroath and BTTS, Raith and BTTS
0/7 prediction.
I started with £30 on Spurs and £10 on Kane AGS, Spurs to score 3+ and over 10.5 corners.
Right now I have £10 on United, West Ham and Stoke, £15 on Lukaku AGS + 3-0 win and £18 on Rashford to score.
Looking to be on various bets in favour of Syria, Armenia, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Brazil today.
England are 20/1 to win the World Cup.
I’d happily give anyone 100/1 with a minimum bet of £10.
I'll have £50
If I thought you'd pay out, I'd have £100 and then lay off on Betfair.
The kitty can pay out.
Doctor Congo look a decent bet against Libya today. Beat them 4-0 at home, today is at a neutral venue. Need the win to keep up with Tunisia whereas Libya are already out of the running.
Nice shout.
Laid Portugal at 1.1 for a laugh.
Oh, Ronaldo on at half time. Maybe not.
I had £20 on DR Congo and £20 on DR Congo/Estonia/Switzerland/Netherlands/France.
Wondering if I should get out of it or not right now.
Edit: Just as I was about to, Belarus equalise :( ffs.
Edit: Cashed out for £20 profit, I've been watching the Dutch for 5 minutes and a Belarus winner looks more likely. Actually £5 on it.
Edit: https://media.giphy.com/media/26xBI0...6so/source.gif
Seen the ballon dor odds
Ronaldo 1/33
Messi 12/1
Neymar 50/1
Kane 100/1
:D
Is Messi worth a punt on that?
I mean it feels like it should be Ronaldo, but you can seemingly never rule Messi out these things and Ronaldo got it last year right?
I'd give it to Neymar just for the lol.
Won £39 from £5 last night on Under 1.5 Wales/Ireland and wins for Austria, Spain, Italy and Serbia. Put it on at HT.
Will be having another £5 on the games tonight - I’m thinking Holland/BTTS if it gets to 20 minutes and is still goalless. They have to go for it but are a bit shit.
I’m on Holland 7-0 with a Robben brace.
Halfway there! Just need Wijnaldum to score 5 in the second half.
£10 on United
£10 on Lukaku AGS
£10 on Lukaku to score 2 or more
£10 on United to win to nil, Lukaku AGS & O8.5 corners
£5 on 4-0 with Lukaku scoring 2 or more
£5 on Lukaku FGS % United to win 3-1 or 4-1.
City, Bayern, Besiktas, Waxtap, Maribor
after doing insanely bad for a while to the point where I had to stick another tenner in my Betfair account recently to keep it going, I finally had a good night last night.
Was sitting on the trade-out button for most of these, but decided not to trade anything but damn liverpool out (was only a -4 of the total win anyway).
https://snag.gy/nxmSle.jpg
Struggling to see any value in tonight’s games. Besiktas and Shakhtar were the ones yesterday - shame a got greedy and fucking lumped Notts County in with them.
Grats on all the Vinsting, Maz.
PSG handicap seems too good to be true.
I've gone for £10 on Bayern -3
£10 on PSG -2/Chelsea/United/Juventus
£10 on Lukaku to score 2 or more.
Not as good last night. Started the night by fucking lumping on Athletico which I thought looked nifty @1.3, no way these fucking Qarabags were going to stand against the might Greaseman, right? Fuck me.
So anyway, rest of the evening was spent trying to recover that:
https://snag.gy/vJWZBP.jpg
At the end of the day, just ended up going down about a quid or two so actually not too bad. Thanks Roma.
Was a bit miffed at Barca letting one in, as that would have put me + for the day. But after Athleticos cuntery I can't blame anyone else too much really.
High risk from Maz, I like it.
The board really needs a train ala Anzhi vs Liverpool, to bring us together. That Lacina Traore goal was magical :drool:
Looking at these for tonight:
Nice - Lazio DRAW @3.5
Milan win + BTTS @3.4
Everton win + BTTS @4.9 (could go with any result here really so just picking the one with highest odds)
Might do a little accum as well, though I've yet to date never managed to get a Europa League accum through I think.
Lyon -2 @12/1
:huhu:
Some Istanbul Basaksehir fuckhead has just cut inside and curled one home from 25 yards with the last kick of the game for a pointless consolation, and now I want to kill myself.
Shortest PL odds for as long as I can remember:
Man City to beat Burnley 1/10
:nono:
Burnley are 20/1
Any reason Coro are over evens not to lose tonight? @4.33 to win outright.
Watford to score 1 goal and 4+ corners @ 3.75 is cracking value.
I'm on Richarlison AGS and BTTS/3+ corners each/2+ cards each.
Nailed it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
I feel sick. I got cocky as fuck and doubled both my bets up.
£5 on Watford to score 2+, 5+ Watford corners and 2 Chelsea bookings (@23) + BTTS and 3+ each team in Levante/Getafe. Returned £300
£5 on Watford 1+ goal and 4+ corners + Celtic 2+ goals, 5+ Corners and 2 Hibernian bookings returned £70
1 Getafe corner and 1 Hibernian booking let me down. Fuck me
Fucking Richarlison.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry
The other was at 7.5 with £10 on and it came in though.
I put £5 on (rather than the usual £1) on my Goals Galore coupon this weekend. Still never won (odds are 7500/1 for fifteen BTTS games) but today would be a pretty good time to finally win.
Took Betfair ages to pay out, I've gone for:
£30 on Newcastle/United/City -2
£20 on City -3
£15 on Martial AGS
£10 on United -1.
Sticking some cash on Neymar AGS @1.75. Feels pretty decent, usually he's on around 1.5.
Also few quid on a Draw here between liverpool and spurs.
mon Pool
well, was a long shot
I feel like I’m jinxed right now. Somebody post something up and win me money.
Can’t get to Betfred today to play my coupon so there’d better not be loads of goals. :moop:
Gone for a top six most backed EW Heinz for a fiver on the horses instead:
Toggle Spoiler
:arry:
2 wins and a third place so far. :drool:
I've got Man City to win to nil @2.1
I've trebled Man City -2, Arsenal -2, Liverpool -2 at 17 or so. I'm really not sure prices have caught up with how big the gulf can be in Premier League games nowadays.
https://snag.gy/cwmxX3.jpg
Particularly miffed about PSG. Couldn't they have squeezed one little fucker more in?!
Funnily enough 'Oavgjort' is also what I said when I saw the scoreline of that game.
I don't understand that, but ok.
I backed Watford double chance pre-game. No words.
Cleverley missed a penalty in the 99th minute too. SHeeeeeeesh.Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Fucking hell.
Gone in a bit on New Zealand to qualify @9/2 considering Peru’s only good player is suspended forcocainedrinking tea.
Kosovo U21 at home to Israel tomorrow are an excellent bet at 3/1, in my opinion.
Whats that opinion based on?Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Having watched every game in the group. In short, Kosovo have been generally very solid and welcome back their best player. Israel have looked turd.Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
Kicked off at 6/4 so can claim it was value if it loses anyway.
That, or match fixing. Definitely match fixing.
Netherlands, NI & Greece for maximum scenes. £5 for £600.
Odds for cards are pretty good tonight for England vs Germany - Danny Rose at 4/1 is the lowest odds. I know it’s a friendly/it’s Wembley/it’s England, but you’d expect at least one or two in the match.
My Goals Galore Bonus coupon had a few eyebrow-raisers on it today. Normally it’s all england but internationals has thrown a spanner in the works, and a few foreign league games were included.
So over the weekend I’ll be praying for at least a goal per team from the likes of Alcorcon, Albacete, Cultural Leonesa, Russia, Frosinone, Carpi, Rayo Vallecano and Mexico. :baz:
Even put £2 on rather than the usual quid, so £15k awaits me come Monday night.
Had to track it on Livescore too cos they’re not all listed on the Sky Sports Score Centre app I normally use.
Edit:
0-4 :DQuote:
Originally Posted by dino
https://imgur.com/gallery/6Unm2 :chortle:
Just makes them an even bigger bet in Baku on Tuesday. Germany are a ludicrous price against Israel as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Sticking some cash on Italy to win @1.5.
Those odds really aren't very good, but I just wanna get something out of it if they do.
World cup outright thoughts?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner
Belgium 12/1 is all sorts of lol. Spain look the best value at a glance.
How are England shorter than the reigning Euro champions?
Yeah I'd have Portugal being on the long side there.
NBA 2k has a mini game where you guess who will win the real life games happening that evening and I have a 75% success rate in it.
Are odds good on NBA games? Where's the best way to look?
Could I make any money if I just put a quid on literally every game if I had a 70% success rate?
From memory most basketball games have a very clear favourite and so the odds are shit.
Nobody fancy West Ham @ 22/1? :lol:
Even a draw is 9/1. Crazy!
Allardyce has a chance to get one over both Newcastle and Benitez in one go. A Newcastle side who have 1 point from the last 7 games.
Look at Everton's odds.
https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-tra...inis-stratagem
Dunno if this will interest anyone besides maybe @AyDee, but this is an insightful talk with one of the founders of Stratagem, who are seemingly the new big boys on the block.
I'm undecided on whether their existence is a good thing for me of not. On one hand, they are a lot smarter than me, on the other they probably don't know much about football, and volatility is always good.
You Pro guys, give me a couple of solid tips.
Been doing absolutely woeful recently and need a few wins to get back on track.
(yeah I know it doesn't work like that but I'm desperate here)
I can't post a winner in this thread to save my life, let alone at this time of the year when the only things on the schedule are Omani cup and Israeli u19 fixtures.
My luck (or decision-making) recently has been abysmal.
Like the other night I went on Messi as next goalscorer at 4.2 in against Deportivo or some such, he gets a Penalty (yay i'm thinking) and fucking misses. How often does Messi miss penalties?
Decided a late backing of Manchester United was a good idea yesterday as well :moop:
But what do you mean the only things on the schedule? There's so much football going on at the moment it's insane!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
He's scored 77 and missed 22, so quite often.
Thanks that helps.
It's worth knowing if you're betting on him to score.
Well he could have scored in any way, and already being 3-1 up in in a random league game doesn't exactly add to the pressure I think. So when a penalty comes, I figure OK, my chances of getting my bet in here are pretty decent, you know? But all my recent bets have seemed just about off like that.
Like I bet on over 2.5 and it's a 1-1 draw, or I bet on a draw and there's a really late winner.
I know you need to look at the full picture but it's killing me that I'm constantly just about right but not completely.
Rock the kasbah in the welsh national. :nod:
There's loads of English football on, but I'm no more than a recreational gambler on it. If I can swerve it for the next couple of weeks then my bank balance will likely be healthier.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
That record is bad to the point that he probably shouldn't be taking them, unless he's just doing it for the stats whoring (clue: he is).Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
The conversion rate across top European leagues is about 75%, so he's a slightly better than average penalty taker.
Suarez is the only other player in the squad who's taken penalties regularly throughout his career, and his conversion rate is 79%, but only 12 of 18 while at Barcelona.
I've just looked at prices and team news and I find it hard to envision myself not recreationally smashing the shit out of on Spurs 4/7 at Burney on Saturday.
I might also smash the shit out, of myself, on saturday.
Recreationally.
Alexis to join bayern @16
Cut it fine with that second Liverpool corner (45+2 mins) but this is still possible. :yn:Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Missed another one today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
Thankfully I didn't bet on him to score.
I did lose my other bet, but you know, I'm just hopelessly chucking money at shit at this point.
Could've been going Haydock Races tomorrow but something else got planned instead. Alas, I'll still have a bet:
https://i.imgur.com/kvarysy.png
Crystal Palace are an unbelievable price tonight.
I talked myself out of putting money on Swansea :(
Double fail. :(
Finally a few wins. Normally never go for accums but recently been doing some random ones:
https://snag.gy/zGYNMK.jpg
https://snag.gy/HeWc9I.jpg
(I'm not showing you the 5 accums I lost before those two :rolleyes:
Dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Nobody in their right mind is going to the Bundesliga these days, it's like a glorified Holland.
Ulloa to score anytime and Brighton win 2-1 @21. Because why wouldn't it happen now that I've thought about it and decided that it's obviously the logical outcome.
Toggle Spoiler
SkyBet offering money back as cash (not free bets) if this doesn’t win. So either I get my £10 back or I get £45 - it’s a no brainer.
If you’ve any money in your SkyBet account, stick it in this!
Chelsea to Win champions league at 40/1 on Betfair feels inflated to me.
They won't, I know, but if they just get a decent result against Barca in the first leg next week, at home, I feel those 40 will dip to at least 30-35 or maybe even less, meaning the trade out isn't so much worse than the 4/1 offered for a win for them in that game.
Firmino is 18/1 (SkyBet) to score a brace. Tempting. Not betting til Cheltenham though - I will hold strong.
If the bet is “to score a brace,” do you lose if he scores a hat-trick? Or is it really ‘at least two’?
Phew.
Also imagine being this guy. :lol:
My Cheltenham request a bet is currently the highest odds they’re offering @ 180
:cool:
Stuck my free £5 bet on it.
40/1 for McTominay to be carded, Salah to score [at least] two and Liverpool to win. :yn: Just like every bet I place, I look at it and think why wouldn’t it happen? Free money! Had £8 in there already so on it went.
They should be giving you at least 80/1 on that.
I've got a fiver on Liverpool to win and our Bobby to score.
Nah. I was ready to take anything over 25s, so was pretty happy with 40.Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Will probably start a Cheltenham thread in the next couple of days. :youpi:
I put the following on:
£5 on Lukaku and Rashford AGS
£5 on Man United 2-0
£5 on BTTS & 3+ corners for each team & 2+ cards for each team
£5 on Lukaku & Salah to score, Valencia & Can carded
cba with my fifteen-game 7500/1 goals galore bonus coupon not coming in every week so I've done a twenty-game over 1.5 goal accumulator for saturday.
Returns £258.37.Quote:
Sat 12:30
Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Sat 14:00
Lazio v Benevento
Nancy v Stade Reims
Sat 14:30
Schalke v SC Freiburg
Sat 15:00
Hibernian v Partick Thistle
Elgin City v Stirling
Celtic v Ross County
Walsall v Portsmouth
East Fife v Ayr
Alloa Athletic v Arbroath
Sat 16:00
Dijon FCO v Marseille
Sat 17:00
KV Kortrijk v Waasland-Beveren
Sassuolo v Napoli
Spartak Moscow v FC Tosno
Sat 17:30
Everton v Manchester City
Las Palmas v Real Madrid
Hull v Aston Villa
Red Bull Salzburg v RZ Pellets WAC
St Polten v Sturm Graz
Sat 18:45
PSV Eindhoven v NAC Breda
Needed chile to beat denmark for 110. They draw 0-0 after the other two results came in.
I try not to bet on Friendlies. It's hard, because it's basically the only way to make them interesting, but they just are so difficult to predict.
My annual rubbish post on the Masters (a week tomorrow). I am using Coral which has a horrible 10 place E/W payout and therefore a staggeringly huge overround on the market, so you should be able to get better prices for fewer places elsewhere.
It's a very hard one to call this year, not because of a paucity of contenders but because there are so many with a plausible case to win that it's hard to separate them. So first of all, let's eliminate some front runners... Dustin Johnson, at 8/1, may have clung onto his world number one status last week, but is well short of his best form and Augusta is a course that does not reward bombers. Jon Rahm (16/1) can be discounted for similar reasons, and I remain to be convinced that Justin Thomas (8/1) has matured enough to tackle one of the tougher majors, though he will get there.
This still leaves an array of shortish priced contenders and it's hard to look past one of this pool for the win. At every Masters I pick Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson and with both in superb form it will be no different this time. Five titles between them on a course which sets up beautifully for left handers (and right handed drawers off the tee) are impossible to ignore. Bubba has come in a long way and 12/1 is a bit slim, but Phil's 16/1 is decent value.
Rory McIlroy has started playing some of his best stuff, although as yet in fits and starts. One year he will get it going round here and he will be unbeatable, will it be this year? I might have some on the nose at 7/1.
Paul Casey is also in the form of his life and has a great game for Augusta, with five top tens in the past. Given how little he has won, 18/1 is a bit narrow and I'd prefer 25s. The last two years have seen European first time winners and I would say Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren are nicely placed to make it three, at 25/1 and 28/1 respectively both will be on my each way card. Both are superb wedge players which is important around Augusta, although if anything I would say Noren shades it on the putting. Justin Rose at 10/1 came so close last year and is in good form again, but 10/1 doesn't really tickle my interest. Nor, indeed, does 9/1 for the old cat himself, Tiger Woods who I think will do well but beating this field at that price, it's an optimist who spunks on that. That said, if he wins another Major I think it will be this one. One I do quite fancy, which will mean his undoing, is Jordan Spieth at 10/1. He has always been superb here (despite a couple of noted meltdowns) and although his long game has been dubious of late, it never stays that way for long.
The bigger prices will do well to beat the above cabal, but a few names I've picked out for £2 each way:
Brian Harman 50/1, a proven winner and a lefty in decent form. I slightly fear he could be just too short a hitter, though, as the winner here always takes advantage of the par 5s and Harman could be hitting some longish irons into them.
Cameron Smith 80/1, a young Aussie with a great temperament from the little I've seen and a few high placed finishes in big events. Think he could be a big Aussie star one day, for now he seems to be only very gradually creeping into people's consciousness. You might get a decent price also for him to finish Top Aussie ahead of Day, Scott and Leishman.
Ross Fisher 150/1, this seems a fairly big price for a consistent performer with a good all-round game who has made 4/5 cuts here before.
Patton Kizzire 150/1, if you don't fancy him for the green jacket then why not back him for top debutant, you don't win twice already this season unless you can play.
Bernhard Langer 400/1, this is for price alone but experience counts for everything at Augusta and Bernhard knows where the bodies are buried around here.
I noticed yesterday I've got £10 EW on Kiradech Aphibarnrat to win the Masters @ 250/1. :cab: I'm pretty sure I had to RequestABet it too. Not sure why I bothered!
Good player is Kiradech but not sure they have a green jacket in his size.
I always like your posts about the majors, Jim but given how they usually go, I'll avoid all of those players. Cheers.
I won last year with Garcia. Or I won money anyway, no idea what I wrote in here. Can't remember the last time I picked a major winner before that. Probably 2014. It's a tough gig. I'll probably stake up on about half of the bolded names above.
Longest odds win I ever had on golf (or anything) was Wu Ashun for the China Open a few years ago at 300/1. One of those times you wish you'd done a fiver each way instead of a quid.
i can’t cash out so I’m fully behind him all the way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
Is there realistically any chance he makes top 10 though?
It's not impossible, as he's having a good year, but I don't think his record at Augusta is up to much.
EDIT: That is bollocks, T15 in his only start. The jacket is his, congrats.
Braga @3 vs Sporting Lisbon
Braga have won their past six league games. They are four points behind sporting who are third.
Edit: last minute winners :cool:
Scottish Championship
-1.6 Inverness @6 vs Brechin
Brechin have not won a league game all season. Four points all season. I don't usually mess around with handicaps but that type of form. They must not play with a goalkeeper.
Brechin are a funny case of ending up in a division which you're nowhere near good enough for.
Went up through the league one play-offs last season despite being perhaps the worst team in the league. Went off second favs against Stenhousemuir, who finished bottom, in the last game of the season, then fluked their way through the play-offs.
Could rather have done with knowing about all of this about eight months ago, instead of being filled in recently by someone who's been profiting off this information since August.
Better late than never.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
It was @1.6 and it came through with a 4-0 win. Brechin next game is at home on the 7th. I’ll add their oppnenets in a two or three fold.
My Champions League outright book consists of green for City and Liverpool, and red for the rest. From before the draw was made, obv. I should really make a decision but I haven't a clue which way to go.
Liverpool vs Man City
@4 Both teams to score in 1st half
@2 Both teams to score in 2nd half
@12 Both teams to score in both half
City to score in all 4 halves of the tie would be a good bet.
Had City and BTTS as that goal went in. Not sure if I'm happy about it or not, but I guess I'm basically just backing City now.
Similarly to Brechin, the Olympiakos bossman has sent every player on holiday early cos they’re all phoning it in, and is playing U20s for the remainder of the season. Put a lump on whoever they’re against for the remaining four weeks.
Is the greek league in the bag or have they had a dreadful season?
Theyre in third but have been called a disgrace who aren’t interested in winning football matches, just having a flashy lifestyle.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
lost here. Covered a little at half time on the barca game for over 2.5 @1.7Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
My final team for the Masters (all e/w)
Spieth 8/1
Watson 16/1
Fleetwood 33/1
Noren 35/1
Smith 100/1
Fisher 125/1
Oh shit, it starts tomorrow, doesn't it?
Yep. About lunchtime.
Bets placed:
£1 E/W - Angel Cabrera @ 401
£1 E/W - Danny Willett @ 301
£2 E/W - Adam Scott @ 51
£2 E/W - Matt Kuchar @ 41
£5 E/W Justin Thomas @ 12
Justin Thomas WIN
Bubba Watson WIN
Patrick Reed EW
Patrick Cantlay EW
Russell Henley EW
And of course Kiradech Aphibarnrat EW
(EW places to 10th.)
Taking Baz's team over Boydy's there.
EW to 10th is a double edged sword because it absolutely slashes the prices. Absurd overround of like 150% on the market.
Bored between watching rugby and going to bed so I've put two 20-selection accumulators on, £1 each.
They're mostly a mix of over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals with a few handicaps thrown in for good measure.
One pays £976.27 and the other £3,606.35. :rosebud:
Brechin City vs St. Mirren -2 @1.8Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Brechin havent won a league game in the scottish championship all season.
Hamburger SV vs Schalke 04 @1,8
Hamburger are rock button without a win the last 15 league games. Schalke are second with 5 wins in a row.
Edit: two hard loses this week. Other bets havent made up for loses. Down about £50 so far this weekend.
👍👍Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
What was he, 30/1? Great effort. I made about £130 off £40 stakes which is a lot better than I normally do. Roll on the US Open at Shinnecock.
I won nothing.
Thomas was my highest place bet at what, joint 17th or something?
40/1 on Sky bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
All in I bet about £20 and won £104 so not bad. Withdrawn £100 to make up for recent losses, including Cheltenham, and got £4 to go again.
Claude Puel next manager to leave at 66/1 is worth a couple quid.
Form is bad and the extremely strong dressing room has already started briefing the press about how shit he is. Owners always will side with players and aren’t afraid to pull trigger mid season.
Italy - Serie B
Monday 9th April 2018
730pm
Avellino vs Perugia @2.3
Avellino have won two games this year. Perugia are fighting in the play-offs and have not lost in eight league games.
England - League 2
Tuesday 10th April
745pm
Morecambe @2.4 vs Chesterfield
20th vs 24th (bottom). Chesterfield have won two away games all season.
edit: Perugia lost and Morecambe drew
BTTS Liverpool win @ 9/1
Lovren to score and win @ 66/1
Firmino to score @ 7/2
Only £1 on each.
I'm on Man City to go through at 5.5 and on a draw between Roma & Barca at 4.6.
Starting nicely.
£14.50 return and into the semis. :thbup:Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Aintree festival is upon us! I received three tips yesterday and they all came in. They all won too, nevermind placed.
Finian's Oscar 5-2
L'Ami Serge 5-1
Bentelimar 10-1
Needless to say, I didn’t back them. :( The treble would have been 230/1 too. Hopefully I’ll get some more tips today and stick £12 on a Trixie.
14:20 Vision Des Flos
14:50 Snow Falcon
16:05 Bouvreuil
Family bets on the national are as follows:
£5 Tiger Roll to win
£5 E/W Seeyouatmidnight
£2.50 E/W Chase the Spud
£2 E/W Milansbar
£2 E/W Baie Des Iles
£2 E/W Alpha Des Obeaux
£2 E/W Final Nudge
£2 E/W Chidlrens List
Backing the field. :cool:
Some bloke in Betfred yesterday asked the difference between win and each way. Good ol’ Grand National. :rosebud:
I’ve chosen so many horses, including Milansbar and those two French sounding ones above but it was getting out of hand so I’ve just gone for Raz De Maree and Bless The Wings mostly because of the jockeys.
I’m going to be repeating my tried and tested method of picking the horses with the names I like (and the ones my wife does) and then sticking a quid on the one with the longest odds.
Bet365 is giving half back before 12 on Ew bets.
Absolutely the only way to pick horses for the national. Stuck a tenner on Gas Line Boy @ 26 and I Just Know @ 19 for that very reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spikey M
Also got £10 on:
Boro
Swansea/Everton BTS
QPR vs Preston BTS
Bristol Rovers vs Blackburn BTS
Charlton vs Scunthorpe BTS
at around 19.
Alpha des obeaux e/w 40/1
Vieux Lion Rouge e/w 33/1
Houblon des obeaux e/w 33/1
Lord Windermere e/w 66/1
Pendra e/w 80/1
Anything under 25/1 is a scam. If I've picked the winner in the National I want to be bloody well rewarded for it.
Total Recall 11/1
Tiger Roll 14/1
Chase The Spud 22/1
Final Nudge 28/1
Children’s List 66/1
Pendra 100/1
All £1 E/W because I’m a regular fucking Rockefella.
Put a tenner on EW on Virgilio. 66/1
Also my accumulator being let down by Hull and Watford. :(
Same thing happened with that many clouds cunt. Fuck horses.Quote:
Originally Posted by Magic
One of them’s dead by the looks of it.
£8 profit. Make it rain.
Who come 5th?
Tiger Roll was my workplace sweepstake one. Unfortunately, it's for restaurant vouchers rather than actual money. :moop:
Bet it's Frankie & Bennys as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shindig
It'll be Nando's or Ask Italian.
Some say vouchers have a monetary value also shindig. Could just be rumours though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shindig
http://i65.tinypic.com/156c0vb.jpg
:drool:
Also had £2 each way on Warriors Tale which doesn't seem to have been settled yet for some reason but it hasn't won anything.
Sweepstake at work was useless though.
https://i.imgur.com/iPuahy6.jpg
In wiv da tipsta crew. :cool:
Jesse Varvas @1.75 vs Adrien Broner - Is too goos to be true. Broner isn't worth picking in any somewhat 50/50 fight. I don't see broner winning at all.
After reviewing this seasons football betting, I'm £423 in profit. Considering I bet every weekend, its pathetic. If I didn't come across Brechin the past month, I would have been negative £66 :lol:
They didn't record a win all season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
If you're a recreational gambler, I think any figure above zero is a job well done.
On that topic, are you planning on betting on the WC dino?
Huddersfield are 25/1 vs City. :lol:
City will win so yeah.
Yes. I'm not going to be able to watch 70 odd games of football without wanting to have money involved. I'm not sure how much time I'll have to do prep work on it, or really how I will approach it, so whether it is profitable or not remains to be seen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
I broke even on Euro 2016 iirc. Would have been a good tournament if I hadn't bet the farm on Ukraine being good, which they were very much not.
Australia to finish bottom of their group is the NAP though.
I'm never going to top backing Costa Rica to top the group last time out. One of those where in hindsight you regret the pathetic stake.
I probably know less about the teams this time than at any time since 1998, so it should be like childhood wonder again.
My Boy Jack in the KENTUCKY DERBY YEEEHAAAA tonight. 25/1 on Bet365.
Why you betting on that? :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
From my very limited research I’d have gone with Hofburg @ 16/1 to WIN.
Finished 5th. 30 from 10.
Got my wires crossed and entered the wrong B***ing thread. Eurovision:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry
Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Cyprus into 4.2 fav. :huhu:
Just listened to our contribution and it's actually quite decent.
Better than the Cyprus one really, but the dude looks a little weird and it's not really a normal Eurovision song so I can see it not winning.
Sweden were shorter than Cyprus before rehearsals. It's nailed on for a top ten, but it's not gonna win. It's fine, and Sweden always present their entry well, but it's not memorable enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
Yeah like I said, being a better song isn't exactly what wins you the Eurovision.
Laying Bulgaria to qualify at 1.25 is probably a better bet than the Azerbaijan one I mentioned above. I think there are 4 slots nailed on from tonight (Cyprus, Estonia, Czechia, Israel), and the other 6 could be any of the remaining 12. Bulgaria is guff and way too short. Might have a lay of Greece as well.
Green on Norway and Lithuania now as well. Expect Norway to go off fav on the night, and it'll probably be a three horse race between them, Cyprus and Lithuania.
Got a free £10 bet. Any world cup top tips? Or should I put yet more money on Suarez golden boot?
Australia to finish bottom of group - 1.85
Uruguay to win group - 1.91
Peru to qualify - 2.88
Senegal to win group - 6.0
Croatia to win group - 3.45
Uruguay outright - 30
Spain & Morocco dual forecast - 6.0
This is stuff I'm on so far.
Argentina to finish third in their group.
BANKER.
I’ve gone for a double of Uruguay and Senegal to win their group @ 9.0 :thbup:Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Germany to be eliminated in the group stage @8
Lewandowski to be top scores @34
Portugal each way @ 25/1
Lukaku golden boot @ 16/1
Giroud golden boot @ 33/1
Brazil-Germany forecast @ 20/1
Argentina out in R2 @ 2/1
Belgium out in QF @ 2/1 NAP
140+ group stage goals @ 10/1
Group B lowest scoring group @ 5/1
Group C highest scoring group @ 13/2
Australia no goalscorer @ 7/1
Group A forecast Egypt-Uruguay @ 11/2
Group C forecast Denmark-France @ 13/2
Group D forecast Croatia-Nigeria @ 18/1
England 5 group points @ 8/1
South Korea 0 group points @ 9/2
N'golo Kanté player of the tournament @ 80/1
Alisson golden glove @ 4/1
Brazil/Germany/France/Spain the semi-finalists @ 25/1
Lukaku Belgium top scorer, Neymar Brazil top scorer, Neymar pott, Brazil win @ 40/1
No 0-0 draws @ 100/1
20 bets, fiver on each (proper pro staking that), most of them for interest. See how much of my ton is left at the end.
That Egypt-Uruguay looks quite appealing. Salah might be enough to beat Russia to second?
The player of the tournament/golden boot markets are interesting. I might put a quid or two on a few of them - fun ones to follow and a chance to earn a fair bit.
That's Egypt-Uruguay in sequence. I think Egypt will be really fucking hard to beat.
I put in Gabriel Jesus for Golden Boot at 17/1 or something.
Wouldn't be surprised to see him do 4 tap-ins in one game and then take it from there.
140 goals in the group stages seems optimistic. How many games are there?
48.
Need an average of 3 goals a game. 10/1 seems pretty decent, considering Uruguay will shift seven past Saudi Arabia on their own.
Yeah sorry Jim. That fiver is dead to you.
I just figured the CL has beeen going goal crazy of late, so why not the World Cup. A few 6-2s and the like needed.
Yeah but those are good teams. This World Cup is going to have some right defensive shitters in it. Remember the last Euros? Awful stuff.
SkyBet offering 5/1 on Fury to win in first two rounds, max stake £20. I think they’ll make quite a loss on that one. :harold:
on France not to qualify from group C at 10.0
In my football man sweepstake, I got Brazil and Peru on Friday. Then today in my work sweepstake, i got Brazil and Peru again. It's a sign.
Brazil vs Peru - World Cup Final - 15th July
@500
£1 - Brazil to win the whole thing + Neymar top scorer @ 25/1
£5 - Neymar top scorer - 5/1
£1 - Brazil to win the whole thing + Jesus top scorer @200/1
£1 E/W on M'Bappe, Griezmann and Mitrovic.
So far I've got £10 on Argentina a to finish third in their group. Nothing else so far as I'm trying to think where best to put my money.
I'm on Saudi Arabia +1.25 against Russia on Thursday.
Seems so hard to find value in this world cup because on first look, no teams look like they could cause much of an upset really.
Senegal and Morocco could maybe do something. But teams that in previous years have seemed like they could cause big teams trouble, like Australia, Japan etc don't really look like it now. And I just can't take Panama or Peru seriously.
I’ve done a top goal scorer for country accumulater consisting of Suarez, Gabriel Jesus, Muller and Griezmann at 61/1.
I'm avoiding the tempting Gabriel Jesus odds for various things, because Neymar will cry if anyone else gets to score.
I've gone in.
£10 on Argentina third in group D @ 6.5
£10 on Germany winners @ 6
£5 E/W on Werner top scorer @ 15
£5 E/W on Muller top scorer @ 26
£5 on Germany winners/Werner top scorer @ 26
£5 on Kroos golden ball @ 41
£5 on Brazil/Germany final @ 10
£5 on Egypt to qualify from the group @ 2.62
£5 on Uruguay 1/Egypt 2 @ 5.5
£5 on Poland 1/Colombia 2 @ 5
£10 on Suarez/Cavani/Lewandowski each to score 3 or more @ 13
£5 on Lukaku/Griezmann/Costa/Jesus to score 16 or more combined @ 10
£5 on England to be eliminated at round of 16 @ 2.87
Regular major event plug for Only Balls & Horses for some solid opinions, apart from the bit where I can only assume he does some PCP before tipping Australia to qualify.
That '16 or more' line is probably the lowest value bet I've ever seen someone take.
It does seem low considering the one above is much more likely at higher odds as well. I suppose it's also not that likely that both Cavani and Suarez score that many each but still.
Probably very sound. Also I betted on him for Golden Boot so, definitely the right call there Jim.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
Yep, it means those four are scoring 4 each on average? Abysmal bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by John
I saw Paddy Power were doing England to win it and Danny Welbeck to score the last goal in the final, at 15/1. They must be pissing themselves.
It's 150/1, not 15/1
It was definitely 15 earlier, must have been an error.
Uruguay are going to properly disappoint Mahow.
They usually let everyone down.
£5 on Golovin FGS
£5 on Golovin AGS.
Uruguay -2 vs Saudi Arabia max bet.
Someone pointed out that if you bet on all Brazil, Spain, France and Germany to win the whole thing, you'll make a profit so long as one of them wins.
And the only other real contenders are Argentina and Belgium - and it just seems a little preposterous that either of those would win (though I do have a feeling about Argentina which generally means fuck all).
Gone for the following today:
Morocco/Iran draw @ 3
Morocco/Iran 0-0 @ 6.5
Under 1.5 goals @ 2.4
Cavani to have 3 or more shots on target @ 4.5
Under 2.5 in that game @ 1.75
Andre Silva AGS @ 5.5
£5 on all bar the last which is a £2 stake.
Missed yesterday because of the late Iran goal on a 30/1 treble. Today it's a quad of France, over 2.5 in argies game, Croatia and draw Peru/Denmark.
How fruitful are you pros finding this? Can see some heavy backing of European/ South American teams vs the Asians / Africans.
1u Mexico FH @ 6.0
cashing out
1u Germany - Mexico BTTS 2nd half @ 2,5
There have been some stonking misprices but I'm only up a tiny bit on match betting. Peru losing yesterday was a heartbreaker. Outrights posted upthread are doing ok.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foe
I'm going to be on Morocco +1, Denmark -0.5, Peru +1 and Iran +2 next round, I think.
Peru/Denmark and Germany/Mexico hurt me.
Brazil -1.0 & first to 5 corners 1u @ 2,63
I've done terrible so far, one goal away from a win in all my Overs bets etc.
Lumped my remaining Betfair bank on Brazil here at 1.45. Not that it will really make up for the losses. Need some good fortune now.
Not one corner to Brazil so far. FFS.
1u 0,5 goals & over 8 corners Korea-Sweden @ 1.80
Jimmy's 0-0 bet :cool:
8/5 over 3.5 goals in Belgium game looks a steal.
Belgium -2 @ 2.62 will surely come in? Worth a few hundred
Too risky given it's opening game of group but 3 goals in the game less so.
England can fuck off. I ain't touching em but I think they might surprise a few compared to the last few tournaments.
Put £200 on -2 AH @ 2.20. They’ll want to score for fun as it might come down to GD with England. Attacking team too.
I took Panama +2.5 and I've never felt less confident.
I went to check my account to see what bets I'd placed.
I must have misread what I bet on because I've got a fiver on Belgium to win the world cup and Gabriel Jesus top scorer :cab:
2u double Belgium -1.5 & England -1.0 @ 2,88.
1u Belgiun HT @ 1,61
This is going well.
I don't know why, but I haven't bet since day one of the World Cup. Looking at the results, I would have lost badly if I continued.
I'm down $10 but Panama trying to bring me back to evens for the tournament.
Aaaaaaand here we go.
Laid Belgium at 1.05
New pair of underwear will now be purchased.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
365 are doing the in play offer in England game.
1u on over 0.5 FH goals @ 1,5
1u on England HT @ 1,9
snowball the 0,5 goal win on over 1,5 FH goals @ 1,57
1u England 2nd goal before 80 @ 1,66
Put a bet before the WC on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to be their teams top scorer @ 8,0. Looking good so far. Can actually cash out at 3,14 already.
I went and put a bet on all three todays game that there will be a penalty. About 3.1 in each game.
I dunno what regular odds for Penalties are without VAR, but with it, it seems to happen all the time.
So long as there's 1 penalty today, at least I'm +/- 0.
Didn't take long Maz.
Yeah, they were all 3.6 last night on betfair. There's money to be made in this strategy, I reckon. I was too slow for this game now though. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
1u Colomiba first goal before 80 @ 1,83
What is this '1u' thing you keep posting in your bets?
units. 1 unit is a low stake.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Yeah that was fucking Nifty. Anything from now on is a bonus today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry
Substantially lower today then. Might be a good idea to stick a bunch of bets in on future group games as soon as possible really.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Yeah, just stuck a fiver on today's other two games and Portugal tomorrow. They were all 3.0-3.2. Seems the bookies are adjusting already. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
I just went and betted on all games tomorrow as well. So long as the odds are all 3+ it'll always be enough with one penalty per day.
I'm also on Egypt @4.1 later. I know Russia have probably paid their way to win that somehow, but still that seems like good value to me, especially if Salah plays.
Jesus, how are Egypt at those odds? I'll be getting on that too. I also fancy Senegal to beat Poland.
I know, right? That was on Betfair.
Egypt are 4.5 on Bet365
I got them at 4.5 on Betfair just now.
WTF was 4.1 for me. Did Salah confirm he's not starting or something?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/...113137044.html
Don't think so. That was the latest news I could find and it sounds like he'll play.
Went in on Colombia at half time :(
A goal or two either way (for Colombia ideally) and I'd be ok as I got on some overs too.
I’m on the Egypt train, lads.
So much for the Egypt bet but there's the penalty. :drool:
Five overs on the bounce have hauled me back into the 140 goals group stage bet. 98 needed from 31.
i'm up $15 for the tournament now thanks to mother russia :drool:
Dumb question inbound: what’s the difference between backing -2.5 AH and -3 AH?
Also tempted to stick the £200 stake from the Belgium/Panama game on Portugal/Uruguay -1 @ 2.60
Well with -2.5 you'd win with a 3-0 (with a score of 0.5-0). With -3, a 3-0 would be a push so you'd get your money back (score of 0-0).Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
Uruguay -2.5 it is.
Seven is the number they need to be ok with a draw against Russia, so that might be worth a punt.
You’d hope. Their lack of midfield and creativity in general worries me. Hopeful Suarez can turn up for one game, the fat twat.
Penalty in the Russia games saved the day for me yesterday. Have bets on Penalties in all games today as well. Sort of can't see this keep up forever, but...
Also, I'm going to be very tempted to stick money on Russia against Uruguay. Something is definitely up with Russia, they are all full of something; steriods, vodka, of just the fear of a Gulag. I dunno, but they aren't playing 100% fair.
Going to stick £75 on Portugal-1 AH @2.25 as think they’ll win so at the minimum I’ll get money back if they don’t score a few. I’ll leave until right before kick off as odds constantly increasing. Winnings if they come in will go on some sort of Uruguay handicap.
Please note that my previous information about handicaps was specifically regarding Asian Handicaps.
Dont underestimate Morocco!
Aye. I bet on the -1 or -2 AH all the time. Was just having a brain fart last night with the 0.5.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
Going to be one hell of a bookie liability on the on the Portugal, Uruguay, Spain treble today.
Egypt lost me a tenner.
I've had a nightmare so far. Lost around £100 on various bets. Closest I came was a treble on cards, corners and goals in the Belgium game - 1 goal away.
Not sure what to go for today.
Toggle Spoiler
Saves me depositing money for Uruguay game if it comes in. Today is going be amazing or disastrous.
2.34 available on matchbook, no commission. Mugging yourself off there.
I'm on Morocco +1.
Trying to bet with 365 more often to get my in play bet offers up to £50.Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
The odds on that site don’t look any different at all.
Bet365 build a bet
Over 0 cards for Morocco
Over 4 corners for Portugal
Over 4 goal kicks for Morocco
Over 1 goals in match
@2.10
I'm also on the Portugal -1 AH train
You inspired me here :moop:Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Just for the hell of it
Ronaldo to score again @ 1,90
Is that 1 out of 4? I looked at this and thought it was free money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Trancemeister
I ended up changing the Bet I posted to £55.00 on Portugal -1 and £100 on Portugal, Uruguay and Spain @ 2.50. So £50.00 down instead of getting my stake back. Cracking stuff.
Really not sure how much to pile on Uruguay handicaps now.
Lost due to only one goal in the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
I have money on 7-0, over 5.5 and Cavani to score a header.
Mon the rape.
BBC said Portugal only had 3 corners.Quote:
Originally Posted by Trancemeister
It says 4.:cab:Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
They had 5Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
They've updated it. Here's what it was (I still had the tab open)
https://i.imgur.com/pULk3Q3.png
Didn’t Morocco have about 7? :cab:
I've gone for Uruguay -2 here. Was tempted by the -3 but decided to not be greedy. Odds are 2.36
Looks like the BBC report on the game has gone mental. I have refreshed 3 times and the stats have changed each time.:cab:
I need Suarez to score loads. Winning that golden boot bet will make the World Cup great.
I’d win £650 plus a £5 bet for every goal he scores.
Put more money on -1.5 & -2 to give me a small win if they win 2-0. If it's 1-0 or worse it's disaster territory.
More on -3 and Suarez 2 or more as well as Cavani 2 or more.
Toggle Spoiler
Could be a great or shite day for TTH.
All that coke you might get tonight...
Haha. Gonna go big on England against Panama and then back to normal stakes after that otherwise I'll blow it all. Good fun though during work.
I'm on a combo of over 3.5, Suarez to score and Uruguay to win here @3.44.
Figured basically I could spice up my over 3.5 bet, basically.
So need 3 more here. Looking shaky.
Uruguay are shit.
I don't hold out much hope.
This is awful.
I highly doubt we'll even get a second.
Bookies must be on the verge of some big wins.
FFS Cavani
Deary me. I think that's me done for the entire world cup
Spain winning keeps me up £50. That was brutal.
Not even any penalties today. :(
Have faith Boydy
I started really well but it's gone to proper shit :(
i'm $25 up now boys :drool:
Today I'm on Denmark, Peru and Croatia.
Folk sleep on France too much.
Folk don't sleep on France nearly enough.
Can't see Peru beating France. A draw, maybe.
I still quite like the odds of 1.6 to be honest. Feel like France will win, but it will be a bit ugly maybe. Like Spain last night.
Going for a Draw in Denmark - Aussies. Feel like both are toothless.
Also build a bet of:
France
Over 0.5
Over 1.5 (it seems you can combine this :cab:)
Over 6.5 Corners
@2.39.
Jimmy’s no 0-0 bet is looking amazing.
Did you forget the penalties bets?
Nah, I was on this one :cool:
Have penalty bets on all of todays games.
Missed betting on the Denmark Australia game as I was in work earlier. Was tempted to go for a draw as well a penalty in that one. :moop:
Hurry the fuck up and take the penalty. I have brazil to score before 80
And now he overrules it via VAR :D
Went profit anyway with some late bets on Brazil including betting on brazil to get a 2nd right after their 1st @ 7.0
Alright dilj
I’ll win ten billion euros if I carry on getting every score spot on.
Arigato 1930 Newmarket.
Info? :sherlock:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
2nd.Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
:thbup: I was £5 EW @9/1 (£7.50 profit)
more tips same source plz
New customer offer on betway: England to beat Panama 33/1
Min. £10 deposit.
https://betway.com/england-panama/?u...utm_term=50126
edit: Winnings paid in free bet btw.
How much can I stake? Stakes must be at least £/€1, with no maximum. But only £/€1 worth of the stake will be enhanced to 33/1 if England win.
:thbdn:
Yeah, well it'd be far too good to be true otherwise.
Portugal's outright odds (on various sites) look pretty good.
Lukaka and Hazard 1+ shots on target each
Hernandez and Lozano 1+ shots on target each
Harry Kane to score
Senegal to win
4 fold @ 9/1
Makes it more interesting dunnit
When I can. 🧐Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Belgium -0.5 from 4-1 (i.e. to win by 4 or more) is the worst beat I've ever had.
Mexico to score in the 2nd half
After eventing time 😎
https://preview.ibb.co/kdoy0T/Screen...623_192007.png
Stuck a fiver on that yip at 4.9 on the betfair exchange.
Betfair had Werner and Berg to score and Ozil and Lustig to be carded at 351. Thought that was worth putting a quid on.
Ozil isn't even playing. :moop:
I'm on Germany -2. If this loses, it's definitely curtains for me until the new season.
Mexico already spoiled my four fold so I’ve had another bet on England.
Stones and Maguire to each score a header @ 350/1
I’ve £232 on England -2 AH tomorrow.
I regret it already.
:lol:
Someone get me a Panama top.
Toggle Spoiler
Managed to get on some over goals in the 1st half. Now over 6.5 @ 1,72
....Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
My Uruguay group a winner lump has come down to a match bet on them against Russia. They're 2.8 today, I'm on at 1.9. Pity
Lewandowski letting my treble down of him, kane & lukaku being their teams top scorer. Can cash out at double atm.
Ronaldo/Costa 20/1 to score first on SkyBet. Would get on it before they reduce it.
Poland havent scored a goal yet, so its still on. They play Japan next. I would cash out with the quickness. Lewa being my top scorer has let me down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Trancemeister
They scored one vs Senegal.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Yeah, Krychowiak is the top scorer right now.
Fucked it lad.
After eventing !!! But I had £10 on Suarez/Salah ags (enhanced) @ 8 so have stuck £10 on the aforementioned Ronaldo/Costa double and £25 on Spain -1 and Portugal to nil @ 5.20.
Iran to win @6
On under 2.5, Iran +1, Iran SW and Iran 1-0 cs.
Toggle Spoiler
VAR :drool:
How much are you up for the whole tournament?
I’ve a free five pound bet to use. Gonna find some silly odds request a bet for the England match, I reckon.
Between £550-£600. Mainly from betting against Panama. Blew loads on Uruguay/Saudi.
Can't believe there wasn't a red card in the Portugal - Iran game in the end.
Sky Bet (today’s first day I’ve won with them) -
Deposit: £80
Withdrawn: £240
Bet365 -
Deposit: £490
Withdrawn: £810
That’s since the start. Lose too much money throwing on stupid bets with my winnings from Panama games
This is probably like introducing someone to smack, but you'd enjoy PGA, Waff. Professional Gambling Advice on Facebook. Group of addicts who are good/think they are good at gambling.
42 likes on their page?
I'm £143 up on the month but it's mainly from the nags. Football is my Achilles.
I'm down maybe 50-60 quid this tourney, but it was worse before (like 90). Penalty bets on every single game so far (also have the remaining group games now) have kept me afloat.
Also some recent better luck, like I had an over 2.5 double on Egypt - Saudis and Uruguay - Russia. So that came in nicely with two late goals.
What odds did you get on penalties for the rest of the games?
I was looking at penalties for last night's games and they were down to about 2.5 now. :(
I noticed that the closer the game is in time, the lower they drop the odds for whatever reason. Dunno if they have a default they are adjusting based off somthing.
So the lowest I got on Betfair was 2.8. But then I just went on and betted on all the remaining games, and got 3.5 on some of them.
On average, I'd say 3.0-3.2. I feel like the approach in this case only works if you bet on literally all games. At some point, either the Odds or the Players will adjust to this (likely both).
Also not quite sure what to think about the later stages. Games will be tighter and you'll get more 0-0's, so it might go down a bit.
I put 50 squid into my Bet365 account. I'm down 20 quid. Give me a bet that'll get me back up to 50.
Ive read numerous posts about some 0-0 dream. I'm guessing it was no 0-0 throughout the tournament? What was the odds?
80/1 on SkyBet I think, lad.
I had it 100/1 on Coral. It was a great run.
I’ve put £20 on Iceland-0.5, -1 @ 5.5 and the follow random bet on SkyBet:
£10 on o2.5 goals, BTTS, 5+ Nigeria corners and under 6 bookings @ 9
£5 (free bet) on Iceland to win and Sigurdsson to score/Nigeria to score 2 or more @ 22.5
Currently up $45 boys :drool:
Toggle Spoiler
No idea why SkyBet have paid that out. Love it.
http://i66.tinypic.com/10pwnpl.jpg
:rave:
Just wish I'd put more on now. Never really expected it to come off though.
^Thats ace.
I'm waiting on a few more results on a five fold coming in. Meanwhile, the guy I linked to on the last page continues to deliver. A 2/1 and 12/1 today means another day of money.
If any good SkyBet request a bets pop up for the England game, holla.
Ive just seen the results :DQuote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
That puts me just under £600 profit from the tournament so far on less than 10 bets. I'm happy with it. I'm chilling now until next season
https://i.imgur.com/dVhTFVT.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Baz
How do i copy that in Skybet. Ive just looked and cant find your exact bet @Baz
It’s in Request a Bet 80/1 and above. Right at the bottom once you open it up.
£2 on a treble of Senegal, Japan and England today. Returns £69.43.
That's a good bet. Think everyone's gone a bit dewy eyed on Colombia based on not much.
The Senegal part is hope as I'd like to see an Africa team in the knockout stage and the latter two just seem like a typical England thing to happen.
Japan’ll let you down.
Why do you think that? Poland have been terrible and it's in Japan's best interests to win that group and get into the 'easier' half of the draw.
Cos Japan are garb. I’m amazed they have 4 points. Poland have been underperforming so far but if Lewandowski turns up it could be a trouncing.
I cant find it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
Open App > football > world cup request a bet
Looking in there, I can't see shit
Found the section but I think it's gone. There are a few 450/1 but they are not the same
It’s 500/1 now. Definitely still there.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Youve done well to get all three wrong. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Found it. Copied.Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
:swing: :swing:Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
That Colombia winner has cost me about £2000.
I’ve £50 on 3 or more cards and 1 or more goals in the England game @ 3.18.
Not sure I’ll get my bookings now.
Brechin who never won a league game last season are in a friendly vs Dundee FC shortly if anyone cares
France odds are crazy. They’ll absolutely dominate the midfield.
I'm on this https://twitter.com/Raceolly/status/...937466880?s=19
First one came in at 22/1.
Uruguay are a hell of a bet later.
No idea what this means but I’ve stuck £5 e/w on Cosmelli.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Fucking hell. :D What a race.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
Cosmelli wins by photo.
Regret putting £50 on France and £5 ew on that now. Still, £260 nae bad.
Or not. £220.
Cashed out. £945 from 12.60. fuck me
I'm up about a grand today.
Kiko, you beautiful bastard. There were only 3 of those races left when I saw your post so I stuck a quid each way on a treble of on Sir Dancealot, Cosmelli and Watersmeet. Won £81.18.
:drool:
Got a couple of little fun bets on the France Argie match:
£2 on Messi 3+ shots on target, Griezmann 2+ shots on target, Pogba 1+ shots on target at 33/1
£1 on Antoine Griezmann to score 1st & Javier Mascherano to be carded 1st at 150/1
Don't feel confident about picking a winner in that game at all.
Pleasure. The guy is an absolute hero.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
I feel sick. £50 on France -1 AH for £200. Cash out was £190. Fuckkkkk
https://i.imgur.com/OYnF9fn.png
Seeeeeek.
1/8 in for my bet. Hopefully Uruguay don’t mess it up early doors.
EDIT: 2 for 2. Cash out upto £170. Next four seem like dead certs though so I’ll let it ride.
Your man's got another lucky 63 up for tomorrow, Kiko.
I know. Already on it
So am I. I hope it's as good as today's was.
What is a lucky 63? That looks mad confusing.
A combination of all sorts of things. doubles, trebles, 4-folds etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Part Number of Bets
Single 6
Double 15
Treble 20
Four-Fold 15
Five-Fold 6
Six-Fold 1
How much did he win yesterday?
I think if you'd stuck with it to the last it could have been multi thousand but not sure as I cashed at £945.
He's not going to win every day.
It may be worth following some of his tips to put into singles.
Jesus tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Well he won’t win today cos I’ve jinxed it by getting involved. £5.58 on an EW Lucky31. If they all win I get £7441 :baz: If I get at least my stake back I’ll be okay.
The horse called Greenworldsolution in the 13.30 Uttoxeter is a non runner and can't be added to the bet. I guess this means the horse has been put down and is unavailable to race?
Ive got a £5 free sky bet but if I tick the Each way box and add the £5, I need to deposit over £100 to make the bet. Mad confusing. Even a google explanation istn helping.
It means it's not running in the race. It pulled out this morning.
You're betting on multiple bets which is why it costs that much. Singles, doubles, trebles etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
i am sure you can do it. Don’t write anything in the stake boxes and click ‘use free bet’ and it’ll automatically set it to a five fold Acca. You can then click change and change it to a lucky 31. It’ll only use £4.96 (or something like that) of your free bet and you’ll lose out of 4p but it’s worth it. Oh and don’t forget to tick EW next to the lucky31 box after selecting to use your free bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Looks like you can't change it from a fivefold. The free bet can only be used on a five-fold it seems on Skybet
Five-fold each way wins £110,000
Bet 365 don't have lucky 31 or lucky 67. Are they onto the community :lol
Placed a £4.96 bet on lucky 31 EW with skybet.
Yes. They've restricted it because he's become popular overnight. I placed it on Skybet.Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Great start. Mighty Whitey fell.
It's not looking great today.
Told you I’d jinx it.
They're 100/1+ shots. Don't feel too bad.
Only 2 placed today. :(
Aye, your man returned me £1.23 so I've stuck it on a Mandzukic brace in 90 mins for £6.77 return.
Swapped most of my Croatia outright for some Denmark outright. Let's go Lord Bendtner.
Trying that tipster's horses for tomorrow and nothing comes out of that I think I'll give up on it for a while.
Amelia George is the exciting one. Managed to get 80/1 at Ladbrokes.
It's 100/1 on Betfair. That actually put me off a bit.
50p Ew, what's the worst that can happen?
Deep regret.Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
As long as you're massively long on England, you'll be fine.
I swear I haven’t seen a winning bet since joining that FB group.Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Cash out on the Lucky Dip selection for £6.50 profit already. The horse that was at 100/1 is under 10/1.
It's 7/1 now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Back to 20/1 now.
Placed 2nd.
€42 of €4.
£55.70 today from that £6.20 Lucky 31. Niiice.
Tad unlucky today. Would have been a lot better if that horse wasn’t voided and Dorian Grey being pipped for second.
Yeah. Still decent though.
Yep another good day. 80/1 on Ladbrokes for that horse was belting.
Your odds shit all over mine. I got £24 on Skybet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
I'm just using Betfair Sportsbook. It's what I always use.
I'm across Ladbrokes, Bet365 and Skybet. Might pop into a bookies later to place his latest lucky 31. Getting it out in cash would be mega :drool:
Has he got tomorrow's up already?
Not seen them - I'm sure the internet will break again when he does.
10pm or so troops. I’ve got his twitter notifications on for him.
Another one?
This guy is USA only.
Profitable history though?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
If you are sensible he seems to be yes i.e. have strict betting stakes.
Kiko’s man has posted btw. Odds already dropping like flies.
The first horse from the Yanks selection finished dead last. Still a decent return though if it improves.
Left out Wotadoll as Betfair weren't offering each way in that race. There only are four runners. Stuck 25p each way on the Lucky 15 of the other 4 horses. Possible return of £1748.03. Think it's roughly the £48 if they all just place.
hahaha at that American Racing guy. 1 place, 1 win, 5 losers. Saw an 11p (eleven pence) return off a £12 EW super Heinz :lol:
Unfollow that geezer.
Because you win every single bet. Be realistic.
Not looking good today for the horses. Still three more to run. He’s clearly got a good track record so no point not putting £6ish on all his bets he posts.
Lol, just wasted £50 on Bet365’s in play offer on a stupid bet thinking they refund you. When the fuck did that change
Forgot about his picks for tomorrow. Odds are a bit lower now for quite a few of the horses but I'm on it anyway.
They blocked his Bet365 account. Pretty pathetic when you consider it’s 10p stakes. Hopefully the luck is back tomorrow. £84k is the max payout I got.
Yeah, I saw that.
£84k max payout for tomorrow? With 10p stakes? I only got £28k on Betfair.
Silent Man - 12/1
Angel Moon - 8/1
Solatentif - 14/1
Dropzone - 12/1
Gloi- 25/1
Fuck's sake.
I got:
Silent Man - 6.5
Angel Moon - 13
Solatentif - 13
Dropzone - 8.5
Gloi - 19
:(
Where did you place your bet?
A Montmartre (12/1)
Walt (15/2)
The Boola Bee (18/1)
Treble: .50 e/w (534.65)
Bet365 but I’ve got notifications on for his tweets. He normally posts just before 10pm so just stalk his Twitter then as odds get slashed immediately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Fucking Bet365 wouldn't allow me to do Yankee or Lucky31.
I got on with Ladbrokes. Coral still had some decent numbers last night.
Gloi is a non-runner.
Your brother in law looks like Mert.
He’s posted another huge one. Be quick, boys.
Cheers. On it.
First two have lost. Burn the witch
5p wasted!
First one at Thirsk placed.
If you backed it with Ew extra.
Edit: sorry I didn't back the Thirsk one.
He’s got popular as fuck and the bets have stopped landing. I’ll stick with it for a while.
I hope a few drop out tbh. He's posting 100/1 shots which aren't going to land every day.
A Montmartre (16/1) and Santafiora (22/1) both won for me as e/w bets but were on separate trebles so :(
In honour of your man not putting a bet up today I've randomly picked 6 horses and stuck them in one of those Lucky 63 things.
Toggle Spoiler
How much did you bet? How much if you win?
http://www.attheraces.com/tips/atr-t.../speed-ratings
I've done these 6. Returns like 9k if they all win.
10p each way (so £12) and it returns something like £2.5m.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spikey M
lol
It's a dartboard control.
Lend us a (briefcase full of) tenner(s)?
Yeah, briefcases for everyone if it comes in (I assume there's probably some sort of max payout small print that would fuck me over even if it did).
Three of those donkeys I bet on have lost. There's three still to run.
I've been following a few others and probably about even for the day.
Last one is Lady Valdean in the 840.
My last stick of the pin came in at 22/1
:cab:
Didn't do any good (well, a couple of quid) but is still quite amusing.
Shit Zubulon ran 4th and a few 5ths as well. What might have been . . .
Your mate Kiko was looking at Newton Abbot for tomorrow, I'll more than likely be down there having a peek.
Try and get on his choices if you can.
Not physically though.
He might be a decent jockey. Follow your dreams.
Of the last three, two placed and one won. Only returned like four quid odd from the £12.60 bet though. :moop:Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
SkyBet (Singles)
Secret Palace (28/1)
Amron Kali (28/1)
Ladies Dancing (12/1)
3.50 (43.70)
Looking at B365 for a treble.
Amron Kali the only one getting placed. My treble of Montycristo, Across The Park and Fifty Shades maybe in doubt :moop:
Fifty shades run a great race.
Brazil to qualify @8
He did. Gave me £20 as a single e/w :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
raceolly has 7 horses up for tomorrow.
Giving it a go and then if nothing comes of that I think I'll quit horses for a good while.
£24 as well. Christ. Hoping for same luck as last weekend.
It's still 10p stakes, it's just because there are seven horses.
First one's a winner. :)
Do Sky Bet payout over four places? Might need to change up. Two winners, second and fourth so far. Returns sitting at only £1200 though.
It'll depend on how many runners there were in the race, I imagine. It varies on Betfair between 2 and 4 places.
Betfair were only paying 3 places on the 12.55 where Masham Star was 4th.
Maguire and Stones to score a header 250/1
Love that bet. :nod:
£2 on each:
Sweden to win in 90 minutes @ 5
Sweden 2-1 @ 18
Stones 1+ shot on target @ 6.5
Kane & Toivonen 1+ shot on target each @ 2.87
Forsberg AGS, Sweden to score in both halves & Stones carded @ 126.
I’m also on the following for a quid each:
Maguire to score, over 2.5 goals, under 11 corners, England to qualify @ 28/1
Kane FGS, 1-1, England on pens @ 66/1
Granqvist + Stones 1+ shorts on target, 4+ corners each @ 50/1
Kane FGS, 0-3 @ 30/1
2+ penalties @ 14/1
If Rakitic scores from outside the area, some lucky cunt wins £140k from a £1 stake via Skybet
Perisic.
Would have been better had it been Perisic simply to score. Imagine the seethe at him spaffing that absolute sitter against the post.
I would have taken the cash-out after KDB goal to be honest.
I have either Hazard, Neymar or Mbaeppe going to Real Madrid. The odds are not great though with neither of the three being any higher than evens. Got on it too late.
Maguire and Stones to score a header. 250/1 Third time lucky.
Suarez to join Bayern @25
We will end up selling them Hazard for chips and sending all said chips to Tel Aviv. Lump on it Sincere in your mad transfer betting madness.
Who is he joining. The white Madrid?
Anyone bothering with the horses any more?
Always.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Cliffs Of Dover in the 19:55 at Kempton. ;)
Still bothering but it's been a poor few days.
Just seen that horse is so odds on it’s not worth bothering. :rolleyes:
There's a horse at 18:25 in Kempton with your name on it @Baz. He's currently at 26 on B365.
Yeah I’ve backed it about six or seven times already and always lost, so I’ve given up. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Pleb
Edit: lost again
The Australian lower leagues are a gold mine when it comes to 1st half goals.
Kante to Real Madrid @7
One that might be worth a bet is Västerås - Syrianska in sweden division 1 north. They played 10 days ago and Västerås won away 7-0. Today they're at home and atm they're @ 2,40 to win.
All aboard!Quote:
Originally Posted by Trancemeister
Big stake so cashed out in 89’ minute at 1-0. Couldn’t take the stress.
The odds on The Open this weekend looks proper mental.
I would but I'm not a golf bloke.
Woods’ is pissing on it with these greens. I was going to go on the Saturday since it’s a 10 min walk at most but £85, unable to leave and come back unless you’re a golf member and £10 a pint has put me off.
I haven't checked the odds, but I like Tyrrell Hatton if you're thinking about a mid-range each way effort.
SkyBet emailed me with WILL PATRICK REED WIN FOR YOU AGAIN?
Tempting bastards. :panda:
EDIT:
Sky's paying 10 places and I had a fiver in there so I've gone for:
£1 EW Grant Forrest @400/1
£1 EW Mattthew Southgate @100/1
50p EW Francesco Molinari @28/1
Rahm 16/1
Hatton 33/1
Dunne 80/1
Those are my three. Yoo-rop.
Looking down the list I see an Icelandic player has qualified, that must be a first.
I've had a bit on Fleetwood.
I spent years betting on him in things like the Austrian Open and now he is going off at 16/1 in majors, I feel like a proud dad.
I've got Ew to 8 places on
Rahm
Bubba
Sharma
Bjorn
Hossler
Grace
Fitzpatrick
Southgate
Another golf win. :baz: Pity it was a tiny stake!
I excluded myself from Bet365 over 5 years ago and it expired in March. Last night I reactivated it but then had to send ID, then I had to call a number and talk, then they said a 24 hour cool off period and after midnight I have to call again to confirm I want to continue activating....
What a ballache!
Seems a bit random but:
Double(s) @ 125.5/1
Jack Marriott
Top Goalscorer, Sky Bet Championship Top Goalscorer 18/19
Liverpool
Win Outright, Premier League Winner 18/19
Stake:
£5.00
Potential Returns: £632.50
Burnley and Atalanta just fucked a perfectly good five fold accy for a fiver :moop:
Rule one of betting, never bet on the Europa League, especially not in the qualifying rounds.
Race Olly is on one again. Two wins and 3rd Place from three so far. Petrus got beat for 1st just at the death at 34/1. Cash out would have been amazing if he won. Bet365 just keeping it suspended now.
Cash out £140 with potential returns £1.5k. Shady McCoy 13/1 in five mins is the big one. Last two horses are both odds on.
Bookies fucked up. Before word cup, I went into Ladbrokes and put on Kane to be Englands top goal scorer at evens. I went in to collect my winnings from a £10 stake and they gave me back £170. It clearly said on the slip ENGLANDS top goal scorer and not the whole world cup.
I took the money and literally skipped out the shop with the quickness. No idea how they fucked this up.
:D
Nice one.
Annoying today. Went in on this massive gamble on a dog and it ended up shitting it up. If it wasn't that I'd have been shit loads up today. Oh well.
Waiting on Fleetwood to finish top twenty to free up my Skybet account.
Wolverhampton tomorrow.
20:00 Sbraase 3/1
21:00 Wavepoint 10/3
:yn:
Actually done an EW double, two EW singles and two singles to win, I’m that confident.
Why?
I'm on Ganton Par in the 9.
:cool:
Both won.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Ramsey to Tottenham @20Quote:
Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel
Ramsey to Man Utd @11
£40 now on these four.
Those of you with a bet365 account. Go to esports>SC2 and Put money on Maru to outright win GSL vs The World at 2/1. He's not getting knocked out in the opening round which basically gives him several byes (all games vs foreigners) to the final which he'll probably win at a canter (He's made the other side of the bracket look like his bitch from disadvantageous positions when coming up against them previously). If you want to add a couple of qualifiers to bump it up I don't think he'll lose more than 3-4 maps across the whole thing.
Not sure if I should waste my £5 free bet on that :sherlock:
Chucked a fiver on it.
Just to show that I'm not just trying to bluff people but also to allow you to laugh at me later when he gets 2-0'd in the first round.
https://i.imgur.com/hp07KS8.png
Dark or Rogue to reach the final is pretty favourable too.
https://i.imgur.com/2HIo84o.png
The only thing preventing either of those two are Serral who will get absolutely stomped by Maru so you'll get that back
There’s no outright on Sky :(
You still watch a lot of SC2, phonics?
Ever play anything anymore..?
I stopped between HOTS and this expansion, now I watch GSL but not the WCS stuff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by phonics
He's now 6/4.Quote:
Originally Posted by phonics
Luckily I went fuck it and chucked my free bet on it at 2/1.
I'm moving the needle with my big bets.
Anyone else doing the group bets thing on Sky?
Three of us have assembled a treble for the weekend. It keeps track of each members form too so we can see who picks winners and who to avoid taking tips from.
Anyone up for a TTH one? It’s only football bets (home, away or draw) at the moment but it’s still in beta stages. And you don’t have to bet, or include everyone’s suggestions, if you don’t want to.
Just realised. He's 6/4 because the first round was yesterday.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleb
He won a super tight series 3-2 with a last minute basetrade. Was a couple of buildings from fucking it. :eyemouth:
All the quotes from Reddit are like:
Quote:
All 5 games was sick, I didn't expect soO to give mary such a hard time after his showings vs KeeN and MajOr.
Great series but wow SoO got unlucky, that last game could have really went either way.
Had a tip on Killaro Boy in the 7.55 at Galway tonight. Each way is the bet, I got on at 25/1 earlier.
Stuck a tenner ew @ 40.
£20 on Super Frankie Lampard’s rampaging rams at 2.15
I've now seen the Maru games. He comes from having his attempt at an advantage repelled and somehow brings it back. What a player.
Next worrisome game is August 4th. Protoss isn't as standard as Zerg so you never know if he just gets cheesed 3-0.
I saw the replay the same day of that game and nearly shat myself.
Game 4 was quite something though.
That's the thing with good terrans. You can always back them because the race has enough diversity and flair to recover. Protoss either runs you over or dies pathetically and Zergs only recovery option is a 60 minute mine out game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleb
94th minute winner. Millionaire by May.
I have 7.35 in my account that I want to use. Please provide me something. I'd like to do an accy of draws if anyone knows some dead certs.
Cheers babe.
Also can anyone explain NFL betting to me. This shit makes no sense, it's like Asian Handicaps on crack. What the fuck is a 'Money Line'.
edit: Wait you almost fooled me, I'm not betting on baseball. I see 1000 options infront of me and no idea how to do it.
edit2: Found it, fuck it I'll copy. I'll either be a tenner up tomorrow or Kiko owes me a beer at a TTH Meet coming to you soon.
I've got a partial cash out if it hits £40.
This is the first summer I've had a betting account since it's really boomed. I had one in uni just to bet on the boxing but never logged in outside of that. I don't think it even exists anymore, BetWin or something. It was blue and yellow.
I've just seen the virtual greyhound racing.
https://i.imgur.com/VcGsz4K.png
This shit is fucking degenerate. How is this legal? It's like taking an alchy drooling all over the bar and saying you'll give him a free brewery tour if he signs the lease to his car over.
I just bet 35p on a virtual horse.
It lost.Quote:
Originally Posted by phonics
Virtual Football!
https://i.imgur.com/f24FkBe.png
It looks better than FM.
At least bet on something actually happening rather than the virtual stuff. Or I'll ping you stuff in the morning.
'Jeet used to bet quite a bit on virtual football, that's their target market.
Oh and Money line in NFL is just 'who do you think will win?'. Most people will bet on the spread though (handicap basically).
That is the run line anyway in the bet.
Last day of Goodwood so figured I'd give it the beans.
Returns £174k if they all win.
EW Lucky 15
13:50 - Golden Steps (8.5)
14.25 - Soldier in Action (8.5)
15:00 - Sun Maiden (3.25)
15:40 - Foxtrot Lady (6)
£3 (0.10 each way) - 283.91 if they all hit :| :drool:
Stupid question - in a Super Heinz does it matter where the horse places? Like, is the payout different if it finishes third rather than second and vice versa?
Non-Handicap Races
2 - 4 Runners Win Only
5 - 7 Runners 1/4 the Odds 1, 2
8 or more Runners 1/5 the Odds 1, 2, 3
Handicap Races
2 - 4 Runners Win Only
5 - 7 Runners 1/4 the Odds 1, 2
8 - 11 Runners 1/5 the Odds 1, 2, 3
12 - 15 Runners 1/4 the Odds 1, 2, 3
16 or more Runners 1/4 the Odds 1, 2, 3, 4
I would imagine it shouldn't affect your Super Heinz bet as long as your horse is placed etc.
Despite the shitshow of rule 4 (still trying to get my head around it), my Lucky 15 is still on :|
Sun Maiden busted :moop:
No. Once it places it places.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
Foxtrot Lady (6) placed 6th and gave me 40p after that shitshow :baz: :face:
Won £32 from a £4 accumulator today - took it just after HT with West Brom drawing, so it was a good move on my behalf. Full return was just about £80.
Celtic
Brentford
Over 1.5 Wigan/Sheff Wed
BTTS Bristol City/Forest
Barnsley
Mansfield
West Brom
Tomorrow's fancy at Chester
https://preview.ibb.co/kLOTLe/Screen...4_202046_2.png
Maru got Protossed. I'll never win a bet ever.
I've backed all of Harry Skelton's horses at Market Essential tomorrow.
Crystal Palace to be relegated @ 6
Kevin Kisner is at 110/1 on B365 if anyone wants to put a each way for 8 places on him.
Told my ccolleague (who never gambles) to put £1 on 10 games of his choosing on the u/o 2.5 goals. Already, all the overs are alreadyin and the unders are still in-play with four games left.
@800+
https://imgur.com/JSC37cr
Someone has had a proper mare.
That must be money laundering or someone moving funds between wallets or something.
Maybe, but that stuff tends to occur on overs markets in Russian third division games and the like. It's far more likely to be scrutinised on something as visible as this.
I don’t understand the graphic.
£21k has been bet on Arsenal @ evens to win the league.
Fuck the grpah. Who is this years Brehcin? They have won 1 game already in Scotland League 1 so they may not be the money makers this season
How do you know it's to win the league? I feel stupid here.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
It says English Premiere League Winners 2018/19 at the top.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
He :D
There's a race I want to bet on tomorrow but I can't find it on any bookies' sites. All the other races seem to be listed but the races at Cartmel aren't. Why?
Which race?
Bet365. Ladbrokes has it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Boydy
Prices won't come up till later on in the day.
It's on Betfair now.
17:05. It's the favourite though. Priced at 3.75. Wells de Lune.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Threading - 1.50 York
Making Miracles - 2.25 York
Lookaround - 2.40 Goodwood
Cape Byron - 3.15 Goodwood
Nakeeta- 3.40 York
Came pretty close last few days so on the above.
Lord Glitter :cool:
Got an O2.5 goal accy going for today and tomorrow's English games so cue a nil-nil Monday Night draw :moop:
Horses tomorrow at Sedgefield
16:50 Damut I’m Out
17:50 Running In Heels
19:20 Ravenhill
Only low odds so gone for a treble to win. £1.80 returns £26.97.
First two I’m very confident in, but I think the horses names may be swaying me slightly.
Can't find Running In Heels anywhere (must be a non runner?) what odds are you paying from? EDIT - Never mind found him :face:
If Rotherham-Ipswich didn't let me down then I must be onto something with betting O2.5 goals on a Sunday :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleb
Should’ve done EW :moop: 2 winners and a third.
I’ve got involved with a twitter tipping competition, so help me god.
My first tip is 18:00 Windsor :yn: Look Surprised
2.45 royal dynasty
Might be slightly addicted to horses at the minute. Blessed at 20.45 in Chelmsford looks a bit good. 7/1 at the minute.
Drifting out now. Maybe I’m missing something
Not as good as 14/1 Daddy’s Poppit clearly.
And betting on horses is what going to work is made for.
Starting to do singles rather than Lucky 63 etc. That Gary Priestley is pretty decent to follow
Doesnt he charge?Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
£10 a month is fuck all so am not arsed. The PGA group James got me signed up to is awful and was £25 a month.
Share the wealth. ;)
I’ll post up his NAPs if you wish.
Skint this month but from 21st September I’d be very interested, if you don’t mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
I agree that there’s definitely better value in singles. Lucky 63 are mini-stakes for big rewards for a reason; whereas singles are where the real money is.
Zhui Feng 20/1 @ 2.45 Ascot. Paying over five places. Probably get better odds elsewhere.
I’ll be going balls deep on Darren Till if I manage to not go out tonight.
Haydock - 3.35 - Cosmelli @ 20/1 ew
Haydock - 4.15 - Sir Dancealot @ 15/1 ew
Kempton - 3.15 - The Warrior @ 10/1 ew
Like the look of the above. Regal Reality 15/8 at Haydock 2.25 should absolutely piss it.
Edit: didn’t even realise the weather. Ignore all that
Are these from your tipster?
Naw, just from me looking this morning.
Ascot:
Zhui Feng - 2.55
Normandy Barrierie - 4.30
Move in Time - 5.05
Thirsk:
Summer Icon - 3.45
Afandem - 4.20
Pennsylvania Dutch- 4.20
I’d just go ew singles if you fancy any of them. Couldn’t be arsed finding odds but all over 10/1
Anyone else fancying Sea of Class tomorrow over Enable? I might be bias due to James Doyle though.
Enable everyday.
i was 100% sure I replied to this. :oQuote:
Originally Posted by Pleb
I asked someone on Twitter, will repost later.
I like backing underdogs via the spread when you fancy an upset. Last year I was reasonably successful backing the money line though, basically game winner in a 5 or 6 fold accumulator.Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Avoid the heavy favourites in the spread in college though I'd say. Quite often a team will run up the score and then just shit the game out, but toss up when they decide to take the foot off the gas.
I'm not a successful gambler though, I like just having a dabble to add some interest to games I don't really care much about.
Sea of Class :(
Doyle’s fault. Horse is class.
Could do with something coming in otherwise it's been an expensive weekend...
That’s bollocks it’s his fault.
Well played
I've been giving money away for fun. Rotten run.
I think that's the first win I've had since the World Cup to be fair. Did have quite a good tournament with it though. All those pens. Just on my usual up to £5 accys on Saturdays/the odd Champions League night again now though.
Laurens odds are far too good.
Never betting against Oisin Murphy again
Today's been decent.
https://preview.ibb.co/fhcoyA/yesboy.png
Ryan Moore is fucking awful.
And again.
Zurich @ 8/1 is probably worth a punt.
I’ve punted £45 on Queen of Burgundy (@4.5 but will be at 3’s in the AM) at Chelmsford tomorrow at 6.45. Hole the lights stay on.
3:00 at Haydock is a re-run of the Gold Cup. Native River won that when Might Bite was favourite. Might Bite is favourite again today. Native River is 2nd fave at 3.25.
Gonna have a little flutter on Native River.
On Native River too. Can’t back against Johnston.
Pretty sure he’s unbeaten at Haydock. Oh well.
Betfair's Beat The Drop thing is good fun. It's free play for the first month and if you get ten questions right you win (up to) a grand.
https://beatthedrop.betfair.com/
My first question is will the first goal be scored before 23:59 in the Atletico/Monaco game tomorrow.
Going to go for yes but debating on the split.
Just go for the lot until you get at least half way tbh, otherwise you'll be taking home fifty quid after winning ten bets in a row.
Second question I've gone for Dortmund to win by 2 or more.
They beat Monaco at home 3-0 and Atleti at home 4-0 so shouldn't have troubles with Club Brugge.
Its been a long time since Ive bet anything but I decided to put some down today at random. Six fold with most of the value coming from three results that are IN.
Morecambe vs Port Vale - DRAW
Cardiff City vs Southampton - CARDIFF
Bristol Rovers vs Doncaster - DONCASTER
I now need barcelona to win the esponyol derby for £282.
Can we start up a train on Charlton at evens? I have no idea why their odds are so generous. You can get Raith to win @ 1.80 too which is v generous.
Four fold:
Truro, Charlton & Raith to win
Ratoute Yutty to place (4places) in the 15:40 Cheltenham
10/1
I’m ready for Charlton to concede since they kicked off delayed.
Ruby Walsh is a joke of a jockey.
I've gone Leeds, Leicester, Blades, Charlton, Sunderland & WBA.
Chelsea 0-0 Newcastle is 16/1. This could be the bet of the season.
Burton to win or draw vs City is 14/1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
I’ve fucked it. I created a Paddy Power account in my brothers name for an offer but without even thinking I used my new card as it’s automatically saved on my phone. Deposited without an issue and withdrew £180 but they’re going to stop that, aren’t they? Lol
I doubt anyone will even notice.
You started saving up ready for Cheltenham?
Got too much stuff on, but hoping to go next year. Will try get to a decent Flats meeting this year.
Toggle Spoiler
Decent today after taking a step back. Affy pissed off I backed £1 ew.
Grey Destiny again at big odds? I had that horse a week or so ago at 14's.
Top betting Waff.
We both have the same initials and address so here’s hoping. It’s not illegal anyway with permission.
Ey @Smjffy educate me on Beat The Drop? If WBA win (they’re 2-0 up) I’ll be into question 9 of 10 and still have my full £1,000 pot. If I split it 50/50 for the remaining two questions, I’m guaranteed £250?
I dont bet much anymore but ive got a £20 6-fold with most of the value coming from
Leicester beating Man Utd @3.6
Sporting vs Benfica @3
Returns 800+
Get a fiver on Wales at half time last night which has got me hungry for more. Think Italy will fold in the second half so might go for four Scotland tries.
Gone for Scotland by 36-40 and 41-45. Difficult finding any value in this match.
Bastids.
I find rugby impossible to bet on.
Not sure if anyone's interested but Golf bets for Victoria Open (starts tomorrow) are as follows:
Ryan Fox 14 to 1
Aaron Rai 25 to 1
Justin Harding 28 to 1
Callum Shinkwin 60 to 1
All £2.50 to win. I’m sure I’ll wish I picked EW, but whatever.
I liked Fox for this one too (although I play fantasy these days rather than betting as even if you bet well on golf, you're only picking a winner about 1 in 10).
I had Scrivener and Lucas Herbert as well.
All horse racing is cancelled for the foreseeable future due to potential flu outbreak. Cheltenham festival unlikely to happen, I’d say. :(
Greeting.
You coming next year, Son x
No chance, too pricey. Saving up for 2026 for my 40th. :cab:Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
Oisin Murphy will fund it.
@dino where do you get all your football stats?
Whoscored and understat are a good place to start. Soccerstats is the daddy for what it does. Nowgoal or oddsportal for past odds.
No APIs? I'm particularly looking for one with good individual player stats per match. Don't mind paying if it isn't ludicrously expensive.Quote:
Originally Posted by dino
Nah, that sort of thing will cost you an absolute bomb. Understat is pretty scraper friendly though.
That is incredible.
Watching the ad I thought it was all tongue in cheek, but reading around it seems they genuinely haven't spoken for years which makes it even better.
Casual 10 fold tommorrow @ 6681/1. Freiburg, Palace, Watford, Hull, Bristol, Brentford, Wigan, WBA, Wednesday and Inter.
Fucking Porto have lost me a fair chunk.
Inspired by Manc, I thought I'd go for a mad accumulator for tomorrow too. Here we are:
http://i63.tinypic.com/4ifxfr.jpg
Mylittletip on Twitter has been worth a follow for a while.
Probably going to dry up for a little bit though.
Still racing in Ireland and France if you're so inclined.
I put £30 total on the E/W Lucky 15.
Windies are @ 4.33 with B365 in the creeeekit if anyone fancies. Nice fast pitch and England batting order has been shambolic all tour.
That must be some sort of joke.
Small loss on the Lucky 15 as the last didn't place.
Annoyed as I could have cashed out for about £15 profit before the race.
Monchengladbach, 2nd in the league with a 100% home record have somehow managed to lose 3-0 at home to Hertha Berlin who are 9th. What the fuck.
Also Dortmund threw away a 3-0 lead in the last 25 minutes to draw 3-3 (unless someone scores a later winner).
I had them both too. Fucking Krauts.
My bet was never going to come off but they were the two I felt most confident about.
I stuck £10 onQuote:
Originally Posted by Mellberg
Flipped the horse return on a treble of Bayern/Espanyol/Inter and thought Espanyol had killed it but I've just seen that they scored a 95th minute winner.
Returns a touch over £80 if Inter win
I too had Dortmund but thankfully Sunderland conceded otherwise I was off the Tay Bridge.
Lauturo Martinez :cool:
Ponies back from Wednesday. You love to see it.
Lost a great fucking acca because of this shit:
https://i.imgur.com/VJuzwYc.png
Team yellow are shit.
Dud tip, @Mellberg.Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
£50 on Rashford 2 or more shots on target @ 2.87
£10 on Pogba AGS & United win @ 5.5
£10 on Rashford FGS & United win @ 9.5.
Sorry Baz. Don't think anyone expected Mark Wood to start firing down 95mph rippers.
Lazio, Celtic, Dinamo, Shakhtar & Sporting @ 92/1. Going big against the Spanish. In Brendan we trust.
BTTS Galatasaray vs Benfica
Deja Vue in the 3.45 Fontwell I’ve been told will win. 3/1 atm and the GOAT is riding it too.
(It did not.)
Haha, my boss gave me it from someone in his syndicate group. Twat.
Accrington Stanley to get relegated £7.50 @ 9/1 (possibly higher elsewhere)
AFfs It’s 16s on B365.
Also a £5 EW (5 places on Paddy Power) on Didtheyleaveuoutto in 3:20 Ascot tomorrow @ 8/1
https://i.imgur.com/iMKv7DM.jpg
Wishful thinking.
13:00 Ascot- Air Horse One @ 9/1
14:10 Ascot - Reikers Island @ 11/4
14:55 Haydock - Blacklion @ 9/1
Mulitples on all of the above.
Nailed Liverpool tonight.
got two Doubles on:
Liverpool & Barca for 3.8
and
Draw in both matches for 10 or so.
Lyon feels like a wild card though.
From my position of almost complete ignorance I was thinking Lyon might be strong dark horses to give Barca a bit of a shoeing tonight.
Yeah they probably are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazuuurk
Well that worked out pretty well.
FFS, I was on a double of Athletico win and Schalke/City draw at 16x :moop:
Fuck you Sterling.
SkyBet offering Arsenal (1.11), Valencia (1.57), Napoli (1.18), Chelsea (1.25), Benfica (1.5) and Inter (1.33) at 5.16 :sherlock:
On this:
https://snag.gy/hUyRfQ.jpg
Don't have very high hopes for Dynamo, though.
If anyone wants a copy of the 2019 Weatherbys Cheltenham Guide to arrive digitally to their inbox, PM me your email address and you may be blessed by the horse fairy.
I’ve had loads of winners today but that’s the issue with Lucky 31’s if it’s small stakes and one or two don’t win :(
Predicted 4/6 (one placed in the Irish but I didn’t look at it and the 3.00 I bet on Southfield Stone but didn’t pick him lol) on the ITV 7 too. Waiting on Glen Rocco for some more money
Last race on both Lucky 31s have fucked it.
Saints & Levante double @ 33/1.
Toggle Spoiler
Gutted I only put £1.25 ew. Also, the first went off @ 9 - do you not get best odds when betting through the machine in store?
Dolos looks a lovely price for tomorrow.
http://i67.tinypic.com/28hzrsj.jpg
Reading scored the winner in the 90th minute. Bastards.
My acca is waiting on Solihull Moors for around £250.
30/1 home favourite seven fold came in for me. Only about a 75 quid profit but still great.
5 horse acca for tomorrow:
Leopardstown 14:10 Tombstone
Leopardstown 15:10 Silver Star
Leopardstown 16:15 Dakota Moirette
Leopardstown 17:20 Soviet Pimpernel (absolute banker)
Huntingdon 14:00 Jimmy The Digger
£2.60 EW Canadian returns £50.18
Easy money.
On a double of Draw in both of tonights games.
CHELTENHAM DOSSIER 2019
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL CONTENDERS DOSSIER 2019
Welcome to the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL CONTENDERS DOSSIER 2019
The modern day Festival bears no resemblance to those I first encountered during the early years of producing Festival betting advice starting in 1993. In those days there was a wide spectrum of owners and trainers that could win races over the three day Festivals. Now we have a situation where the jam is spread mainly between the big jumping stables in Ireland and to a certain extent amongst three or four British yards.
When Cheltenham announced the extra day, my heart sunk as those three day Festivals were far better than the modern day era. The young whipper snappers that fill the stands nowadays haven’t got a clue what they have missed. By the climax of the 2019 meeting most of them won’t remember what happened over the previous four days, as they drink their way into oblivion! How the game has changed.
Finding winners at the Festival is the ultimate aim of punters who frequent the Festival over the four days, whether they are watching on course or viewing the action as it unfolds by other ways and means. Perhaps it is the bragging rights driving them on. Those who attempt to punt in every race actually enjoy the thrill of taking on the bookmakers at the premier jumps Festival. Personally my own plan is to always aim towards locating a winner a day and maybe top it all up with a couple of decent priced placed horses. You cannot make out a realistic case for backing a shed full of winners over the four days of Cheltenham in March. Sometimes many punters fail to land a winner or only back one or two ‘shorties’ throughout the entire four day rollercoaster. There is no real shame about failing to back winners at Cheltenham considering the competiveness of the racing.
The best advice I can give is to perhaps go into the Festival with a pre-set betting bank that you should stretch to cover your bets over the four days. Patience is always a virtue at Cheltenham. Of course everyone likes to get off to the best start but having a betting bank in place will focus the mind to help you through the meeting.
If you are able to secure value in your betting strategy you hopefully have every chance of success with some of your investments.
The aim of this dossier is to analyse the credentials of those horses I feel will have every chance of being competitive in their chosen races at the Cheltenham Festival.
Final selections will be made at the 48 hour declaration stage and sent out via emails. Those featured in this dossier will give you an idea concerning the type of horses I will focus upon during the build-up to the meeting. Of course some might not appear due to training problems or unsuitable ground, along with other excuses that are bound to arise as the Festival approaches. Every year something that has attracted the interest of the Press and punting flock usually cries off just before the events are set to begin. By the time you read this something that’s fancied won’t be running.
My own punting experience over the years at the Cheltenham Festival is that of a rollercoaster. Those featured in my books and dossiers will produce jubilation and despair running neck and neck. The pain of the losers is sometimes frustrating, particularly if selections are going well and happen to meet trouble in running or just fall in a hole when the chips are down. Don’t forget the pace of the Festival races is often unforgiving, particularly for the younger, inexperience contenders who will be travelling probably a stride or two faster than they have encountered in other races they have performed in during their short careers.
The main aim is to discuss the prospects of the Grade 1 Hurdles and Chases and put up suggested contenders that look to have the right credentials to win or at least be placed in these races. I can’t stress enough that I will finalise bets at the 48 hour declaration time. I would not rule out some horses popping out of the woodwork right at the death and they will be sent out on the daily emails and texts for you to consider. Obviously the full plan of each race won’t be known until the jockeys are announced and the ground conditions are given each day. I have a feeling watering will be on the cards even if some rain falls during the meeting. The weather looks likely to produce some of the wet stuff leading up the meeting but at the time of writing this dossier it is in the lap of the gods, as to how much or how little will fall.
The biggest headache for me is always trying to find an angle on how to play the 10 handicaps run at the Festival. This year there were 897 horses entered in the handicaps before the weights were announced. The bookmakers appear to be looking at the ‘Trends’ as to the position of those contenders favoured by the recent ratings of the eventual winners over the past six years. I have attempted to make suggestions in these races but everything will definitely be subject to change where the handicaps are concerned.
The Cheltenham Festival week is here to be enjoyed as a spectacle. Hopefully we will have some success and back some winners and placed horses. This is a meeting that I always advise punters to back horses ew. The modern bookmakers will give the choice of ‘enhanced extra place terms’ and some of them look tempting, particularly where the handicaps are concerned. If I make a cup of tea on a race where there is value on offer and protect my stakes, then this is always my own aim at the big meetings at Cheltenham and Aintree.
I’ve hit the bullseye many times in previous Festivals at Prestbury Park, with some monster returns on big priced horses that I’ve backed each way, to at least cover the stakes. They don’t pop up every day but if you spot something that you feel happy to punt remember they don’t all win but when they do savour the moment when it goes your way.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is Cheltenham in March!
DAY 1
Champions Day - Tuesday, March 12 (Old Course) - prize money £1,175,000
1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y £125,000
Fate of the Favourite: U 3 1 1 1 0 5 3 2/0/0 5 3 4 7 2 JF1 1 2 2 0
Winner’s Position in the Market:
5 1 1 1 0 2 0 4 6 4 3 6 J2 J1 1 2 0 3
Winner’s SPs: 7/4F, 3/1F, 7/2F, 20/1, 6/1, 40/1, 17/2, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1,
10/1, 5/1, 7/2JF, 2/1, 4/1, 25/1, 9/1
Winner’s Age: 6, 7, 6, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6
The famous Cheltenham roar will herald the start of another Cheltenham Festival at around 1.30 pm on the opening day. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is never an easy race to solve but five of the last six renewals have gone to a runner with a single figure SP. Willie Mullins has took this race between 2013-2015 with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan, Nicky Henderson won it with Altior in 2016. Gordon Elliott produced a shock result with 25/1 shot Labaik in 2017. Last year twenty runners went to post in this event with Tom George Starting the Brish challenge off with the Summerville Boy. The previous British winners of this race were Altior in 2016 and Cinders And Ashes trained by Donald McCain in 2012.
KLASSICAL DREAM (Willie Mullins) is the top rated Irish novice (r148) entered in this race. He was ridden by Ruby Walsh and the partnership fought out a protracted duel from the second last at Leopardstown in February with his stable companion ARAMON (r147). Both horses put up fine displays with only a head between them, as Klassical Dream just got up in the dying stride to land this Grade 1 event. There is a poignant story concerning the three owners of the winner, two British and an Irish friend. One of the British based owners unfortunately died last year. He had always wanted to have a runner at the Cheltenham Festival with a reasonable chance of running well in a Grade 1 race. I consider his contender here will have a serious chance of at least being in the frame. (Also entered in the Ballymore on Wednesday)
Aramon enters calculations here following a series of fine displays in Ireland, including easily winning the Grade 1 Future Novice Hurdle by 10 lengths at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (Joseph O’Brien) This four-year-old son of Kapgarde was an impressive winner over the course and distance on Trials Day in January when storming clear of his rivals to win the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle very easily by 13 lengths. He was subsequently purchased to run in the colours of J.P. McManus. The owner already has a very strong hand in the Triumph Hurdle and his new acquisition looks likely to attempt to become the first juvenile to win this race since the French bred Hors La Loi III, trained by Martin Pipe romped up the hill to win by 17 lengths in 1999.
The British challenge this year includes the Betfair winner AL DANCER (Nigel Twiston- Davies) (r152) who is top rated on official figures and remains unbeaten during his campaign of four outings as novice, with his latest two wins being achieved in handicaps at Cheltenham in December (Class 3) and then running out an easy winner of the re-arranged Grade 3 Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Ascot in February. The last winner of the Supreme to contest a handicap at some point was Brave Inca in 2004.
Of the other British contenders I will include
CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (r140)
(Nicky Henderson), who is a grey son of Stowaway and a strong looking chasing type. He has run twice in novice hurdles winning impressively at Newcastle and Newbury. I actually prefer him to his stable companion ANGELS BREATH who won on his debut over hurdles in a Grade 2 event at Ascot in December but the form of that race does not look that strong and he then flopped when long odds on to win at Kempton in February. Another way to look at that run is he was giving the eventual winner 5lb and they were clear of the field at the finish. He might be difficult to for forget here.
ELIXIR DE NUTZ (Colin Tizzard) (r150) has won three, five runner, novice hurdles including a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham on good ground in December and the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on soft ground at Sandown in January. This progressive front runner is a very good jumper and his connections are keen on his chance of making all in the Supreme. My concern is that he might be vulnerable to something coming from off the pace and flying past him at the foot of the hill.
Contenders to Consider: ANGELS BREATH, AL DANCER, ARAMON,
CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM, ELIXIR DE NUTZ, FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES, KLASSICAL DREAM,
2.10 Racing Post Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade1) 1m 7f 199y £175,000
Fate of the Favourite:
3 2 1 F 7 7 2 3 F 8 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
Winner’s Position in the Market:
4 4 1 4 2 5 2 3 3 3 4 1 1 7 1 1 1 1
Winner’s SPs: 8/1, 11/2, 5/4F, 9/1, 7/1, 15/2, 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 6/1,
6/1, 8/11F, 8/15F, 33/1, 4/6F, 1/4F, 1/4F, 5/6F
Six of the past seven renewals of the Arkle have gone to an odds on favourite, with the 33/1 winner in 2014 being trained by David Pipe. The likely field of runners might help to provide some much needed competition helping to create a more vibrant betting market than in recent years.
DEFI DU SEUIL (r150) (Philip Hobbs) He won the JCB Triumph Hurdle in 2017 and is another Festival entry owned by J.P McManus and he has made three appearances over fences this season, winning at Exeter in December and finishing second at Cheltenham in the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase on New Year’s Day. He reversed the form of his previous meeting with LOSTINTRANSLATION (r149) (Colin Tizzard) when they locked horns again in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown. The Hobbs runner probably put up his best performance of the current campaign when taking up the lead from two out and staying on really well up the Sandown hill to win by three quarters of a length. He was the ante-post favourite for this race at the end of February and those at the front of the betting market (1st & second Favs) on the day have won six of the last eight renewals of this event. Connections have indicated his first choice will be the JLT.
GLEN FORSA (r150) (Mick Channon) clashed with KALASHNIKOV(r148)(Amy Murphy) at Sandown in February when he outgunned the Newmarket trained contender by 19 lengths. Firstly I don’t think the runner-up was suited by the right-handed track and I’m not taken by the progeny of Kalanisi who eventually appear to go the wrong way. However, the Channon trained victor was mightily impressive when jumping and travelling with supreme confidence throughout this contest and is a fast improving two mile novice chaser.
LALOR (r151) (Kayley Woollacott) is a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April and was thrown into the deep end on his debut over fences when winning a Grade 2 two mile chase on good ground by 7 lengths at Cheltenham in October where he beat the highly regarded Dynamite Dollars. The pair met again at Sandown in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase with the Cheltenham placings reversed by the Nicholls runner beating Lalor into third place by 13 lengths. The ground was soft on this occasion and that probably did not suit the Cheltenham winner. Should the ground come up good again on the opening day of the Festival, Lalor would have every chance to land another Grade 1 event but this time over fences.
Contenders to Consider: DEFI DU SEUIL (Also entered in the JLT), GLEN FORSA, KALASHNIKOV, LALOR LOSTINTRANSLATION
2.50 Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f £110,000
Fate of the Favourite: 2/5 6 3/0 8 9 P2/3/6 3 1 2 F 2 8 8 7 2 1
Winner’s Position in the Market: 3 4 3 4 4 2 0 3 1 0 2 0 3 2 5 3 1
Winner’s SPs: 11/2, 8/1, 7/1, 7/1, 8/1, 7/1, 50/1, 7/1, 5/1F, 33/1,
5/1, 14/1, 28/1, 10/1, 8/1, 11/1, 9/1
Winner’s Official Rating: 141, 131, 142, 136, 133, 129,
130, 143, 142, 142, 143, 129, 132, 145, 146, 148, 155, 142
Winner’s Age: 10, 7, 8, 10, 8, 9, 8, 7, 8, 7, 8, 6
This is the first of the 10 handicaps run at the Festival and they are all notoriously difficult to solve.
There was a gradual increase in the handicap rating of the winner from 2014 -2017 until last year when it dropped back down to 142(see above ratings list).
The top rated horse at the weights is the ‘Giggy Horse’ Alpha Des Obeaux on 162 and set to carry 11-12. If he fails to stand his ground, the weight of those on 157 will rise by 5lb. I don’t expect the top three in the list to run but I also can’t predict who will take up their engagement here. GIVE ME A COPPER (r145) (Paul Nicholls) is the early market leader (6/1). On his last outing in a Class 2 handicap chase on soft ground at Sandown he finished fourth, beaten 12 and quarter lengths behind Classic Ben. The third placed horse Kimberlite Candy jumped poorly in the Eider at Newcastle.
MISTER WHITAKER (r151) (Mick Channon) might be of interest and will step up to tackle three miles for the first time after chasing home the very impressive Cyrname at Ascot in January. I consider the Channon chaser likely to be suited by this step up in trip.
UP FOR REVIEW (r146) (Willie Mullins) finished third behind Invitation Only and Alpha Des Obeaux when they last met in the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase over three miles and one furlong on soft ground.
With 103 original entries, I would rather see the final field of 24 runners before finalising any definite selections in this and other handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival.
Contenders to Consider: GIVE ME A COPPER, MISTER WHITAKER, UP FOR REVIEW
3.30 Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y £450,000
Fate of the Favourite: 1 P 3 2 1/9 1 6 0 3 0 1 3 1 5 1 1 2 1
Winner’s Position in the Market:
1 4 2 9 1 1 6 5 9 7 1 4 1 5 1 1 2 1
Winner’s SPs: 10/1, 9/2, 33/1, 7/2JF, 7/4F, 16/1, 10/1, 22/1, 9/1,
11/4F, 11/1, 13/8F, 9/1, 4/5F, 5/2F, 5/1, 4/6F
APPLE’S JADE (r165) (Gordon Elliott). She must be the most improved and versatile hurdler in training. She has won four races this season over trips between two miles and up to three miles. Her season began with an easy success in a Grade 2 hurdle by 11 lengths at Navan in November. She then won three consecutive Grade 1 hurdles, at Fairyhouse winning the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle over two and a half miles by 20 lengths at the beginning of December. On her next two outings at Leopardstown she landed the Christmas Hurdle by 26 lengths and followed up at this venue with another superb performance to win the Irish Champion Hurdle by 16 lengths at the beginning of February. She has an obvious chance in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle, particularly if you take into account her 7lb Mares’ allowance.
BUVEUR D’AIR (r172) (Nicky Henderson) Back in July his connections tweaked his wind, sighting the fact he was getting older and the surgery would help maintain the physical aspect of his ability to remain at the top of his game throughout his campaign during the 2018/19 core jumps season. His season began in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in December, where he was up against the new second coming in Irish wonder horse Samcro. Buveur D’Air took a keen hold during the early stages. Once the pace began to quicken from three out he was soon in the lead and ran on to outpoint the Irish challenger, who had no answer to the superior ability of the reigning Champion Hurdler who went on to win impressively by 8 lengths. The Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton was considered to be a formality and he was sent off at odds on favourite at 1/4. It all went wrong and he presented the bookmakers with an unexpected Christmas windfall when finishing second beaten a short head by stable companion Verdana Blue. The pair might well meet again at Cheltenham, in March.
His third outing came at Sandown in February where he made no mistakes and easily won this Listed hurdle by 2 lengths. Whatever was wrong with him at Kempton we will never know, but it should be remembered that he performed below his best at Sandown in 2018 before going on to win the Champion Hurdle. He does have a habit of throwing in the odd poor display but always seems to bounce back when the big day arrives. If he is an ounce below his best form this time around when taking on Apple’s Jade giving her 7lb she will murder him.
LAURINA (r155) (Willie Mullins). Her connections have a tricky dilemma. She could run in the mares’ hurdle and would probably destroy the field. If she runs here I’m not sure she will be able to turn over the two at the front of the betting market. She is very talented and a battler but against other mares she has the ability to come out on top. It’s a no brainer in my opinion.
Looking at the potential make-up of the field in the Champion Hurdle there is the prospect of some pothunters being declared to hoover up the decent prize money for the placed horses. In previous Champion Hurdles there was always something that ran on into third place at big odds. Just a thought if the field is big enough to stretch to paying three places as there were 24 entries remaining at the confirmation stage on the sixth of March.
GLOBAL CITIZEN (r159) (Ben Pauling) has run consistently on all four outings this season. He made all to win an Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Newbury at the beginning of December and also won the Grade 2 Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock in January. He has a lot to make-up on his Irish rivals but at around 33/1 he might be worth an ew bet if you find a bookmaker paying the first 4 places or more.
Contenders to Consider: APPLE’S JADE, BUVEUR D’AIR, LAURINA, GLOBAL CITIZEN
4.10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y £120,000
Fate of the Favourite: 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 F 1 3 3
Winner’s Position in the Market: 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2
Winner’s SPs: 20/1, 2/1F, 6/4F, 5/6F, 4/7F, 8/11F, 8/11F, 6/1, 4/6F, 7/2, 9/2
Winner’s Age: 7, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 9, 6, 7, 8, 6, 7
It would appear logical for LAURINA (r155) to run in this race rather than the Champion Hurdle but her stable companion BENIE DES DIEUX (r155) is also strongly fancied to defend her crown here having won this race at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. Both of these talented French breds have an almost flawless ability to perform very well in this type of event. Although Laurina has run twice this season, winning a two runner Listed Mares’ races by 48 lengths at Sandown in January and also romped home on her latest outing in another Listed race at Punchestown by 6 lengths without being extended in February. However if there is one chink in her armoury, she does have the tendency to jump big at some of her hurdles, She might come unstuck at some stage if spending too much time in the air, losing valuable ground in a Grade 1 event. She is a very talented mare with the speed to burn off the challenge of her rivals in mares’ races.
On the other hand BENIE DES DIEUX has endured time on the sidelines through niggling injuries but when she has made it to the racecourse has proved to be as talented as her stable companion and last season won on all four of her outings at Carlisle & Naas(Listed Chases), and also over hurdles at Cheltenham and Punchestown (Grade 1).
Of the British entries LADY BUTTONS (r149) (Philip Kirby) has won an all four of her outings this season in mares’ races over fences and hurdles. Those wins came at Wetherby in a Listed hurdle on good ground in November and she also won a Grade 2 mares’ hurdle on good ground at Doncaster in January, when scrambling home in the dying stride to win by a neck. In my opinion she would have won more comfortably had her rider not had a lapse of concentration in the final half furlong. Her chase successes were achieved at Newbury in a Class 2 Handicap chase at the beginning of December on soft ground. She has also won a valuable Listed mares’ chase at Doncaster at the end of December. There is no doubt she is a tough and genuine mare but whether she can turn over the ultra- strong challenge of the Irish mares’ is of course the big question. However at her price she would be a value each way bet to make the frame at Cheltenham.
Contenders to Consider: BENIE DES DIEUX, LADY BUTTONS, LAURINA
4.50 Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 4f 44y £70,000
Fate of the Favourite: P 1 7 F 0 7 5 1 8 P/0 6 F 8
Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 0 3 2 5 4 1 0 3 4 3
Winner’s SPs: 9/1, 9/2F, 20/1, 9/1, 8/1, 12/1, 10/1, 13/2F, 16/1, 8/1, 12/1, 16/1, 13/2
Winner’s Official Rating: 123, 133, 133, 135, 135, 139, 132,
140, 140, 137, 140, 138, 137
Winner’s Age: 7, 7, 5, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6, 9, 7 6
Note: This race is now a 0-145 novice handicap
Five horses from the 85 original entries have a rating of 145, Highway One O One, Red Indian, Secret Investor, Cubomania and Campeador and are set to carry top weight of 11-12.
Last year the winning rating was 137 despite the race being opened to accommodate higher rated novice chasers. It might be best to look at those rated between 137-140 to try to find the eventual winner of this tricky to solve novices’ handicap chase.
Looking through the work of the British weight demons in charge of handicapping the Irish chasers, they really have gone to town putting up the majority of Irish ratings to bring them in line with the British way of handicapping. One way of looking at the situation is that some Irish horses on lower marks at home have actually been given a free pass to make sure of them being able to race at the Cheltenham Festival.
Some examples of this are included as those to consider.
ROARING BULL (r140) (Gordon Elliott) was rated 127 in Ireland but after he won he went up 12lb to 139 and runs off 140 here. He is a ‘Giggy’ owned horse that stayed on really well to win a 10k handicap at Naas in February.
J. P. McManus has three horses entered that run off ratings between 138-140. Movewiththe times is off 140 but has not shown the best aptitude for jumping having UR & Fallen on his two outings. SHADY OPERATOR (r137) (Joseph O’Brien) is 3lb higher here than in Ireland and has some decent form over three miles with the highly respected Ballyward trained by Willie Mullins. If he makes the final 20 he should not mind the drop back in trip.
RIDERS ONTHE STORM (r140) (Tom J Taffe) is an interesting Irish contender, who has some high profile owners including Mrs John Magnier. You would expect him to be further down the betting list but he was available at 8/1 at the beginning of March having won a novice chase over two miles on good to yielding ground at Punchestown in February. However it was his previous run at Limerick in a Grade 1 novice chase that might be the key to him as he finished third behind Hardline.
Contenders to Consider: RIDERS ON THE STORM, ROARING BULL,
SHADY OPERATOR
5.30 National Hunt Chase(Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)(Grade 2)
3m 7f 147y £125,000
Fate of the Favourite: P 8 2 1/4 5 3 F 5 4 5 1 1 1 9 0 4 U
Winner’s Position in the Market: 3 6 8 1 0 0 0 4 5 7 1 1 1 4 3 4 2
Winner’s SPs: 8/1, 10/1, 5/1JF, 40/1, 33/1, 33/1,
9/1, 11/1, 14/1, 5/1F, 5/1F, 9/4F, 8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 16/1 9/2
Official Rating 2018 First 6 home: 150, 146, 145, 152, 135, 145 (only 6 finished)
Official Rating 2017 First 7 home: 152, 145,146,143,148,135,148
Official Rating 2016 First 7 home: 143, 149,147,147,153,146,147
Winner’s Age: 7, 7, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 7, 6, 7, 6
This race was first staged at the Cheltenham Festival in 1911 when the meeting was a two day fixture. There was a period when some massive priced winners caused big upsets and made it difficult for punters to solve this amateur riders’ race. Alterations to the entry conditions alongside the race gaining Grade 2 status has raised the quality of those horses taking part resulting in eight of the past 10 renewals being won by horses at punter friendly odds, although the outright favourites continue to elude the punters and only one has actually made the frame in the past four years. At one stage this was the fourth hardest race for punters to solve. Looking back at previous results a certain horse called Tiger Roll won this race at odds of 16/1 in 2017. Sometimes you forget the significant winners at the Festival.
The two ante-post horses I’m looking to support in this race are BALLYWARD (Willie Mullins and OK CORRAL (r153) (Nicky Henderson). However, the second named is a tricky one as I’mworried four miles will test his stamina to the limits. There are also murmurings about him running in the RSA.
On the other hand, Ballyward should have no trouble getting the trip. He was an impressive winner of a Grade 3 novice chase at Naas in January, where he jumped and travelled into the race and although his nearest rival was chasing him down he fell at the final fence, the Mullins runner went further clear in the closing stages and looks very useful over fences. He is set to be ridden by Patrick Mullins who was successful on Back In Focus also trained by his father Willie in 2013. This was the last favourite to win (9/4). I think it is important to look for a runner who put up a good performance on its previous outing. Some past winners that fill the criteria had not run during the same calendar year.
This is a race that will be best sorted out once jockey arrangements and the final set of declared runners are known at the new 48 hour declaration point.
Contenders to Consider: BALLYWARD, OK CORRAL
DAY 2 Ladies Day
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 (Old Course & Cross Country)
BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE 2M 5F 26yds Grade 1
Fate of the Favourite: 1 2 2 0/0 2 5 0 1 3 3 1 3 1 3 2 2 1
Winner’s Position in the Market: 1 5 3 5 4 4 8 4 1 4 4 1 2 1 3 2 4 1
Winner’s SPs: 5/4F, 6/1, 12/1, 17/2, 17/2, 20/1, 7/1, 5/2F, 7/1, 7/1,
2/1F, 7/2, 6/4F, 9/2, 3/1, 14/1, 8/11F
Winner’s Age: 6, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6
This is probably the most punter friendly event run at the Festival but there have been a few big priced winners popping up to spoil the punters’ party from time to time. The last big priced winner was in 2017 when the late Willoughby Court (14/1) outpointed Neon Wolf to land the race. In 2007 Massini’s Maguire landed the race for Philip Hobbs (20/1).Then there was Galileo trained by Tom George who won at odds of 12/1 in 2002, not the one that is a monster in the breeding world I might add. Finally I will mention the success of Gaelstrom trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies to win in 1993 at odds of 16/1.
Last year the race went to Smacro (8/11) trained by Gordon Elliott.
The current crop of contenders for this race might not look to be in the class of some recent winners but you never know a superstar might be lurking in the shadows.
The seven-year-old CHAMP (r150) (Nicky Henderson) is the ante-post favourite for the race having won on all four of his outings at Perth and Warwick in May and more recently twice at Newbury including a handicap hurdle in December and then he landed his Grade 1 when winning the Challow Hurdle at the end of the month. He is bidding to become the first of his age group to win this race since 1998 when French Holly romped up the hill to win by 14 lengths for Ferdy Murphy. I actually put the horse up before he won a bumper at Uttoxeter in 1996. It was the only time Ferdy gave me a winner during all the treks I made up to Yorkshire to interview him in a pub when he trained in Middleham.
Do I fancy Champ to win this? Well he has done nothing wrong and comes into the race unbeaten but history is against him.
BIRCHDALE (r146) (Nicky Henderson) is a well put together five-year-old son of Jeremy, who easily won his only start between the Flags at Tyrella last March and was subsequently purchased by J. P. McManus. On his British hurdle debut at Warwick on good to soft ground in December, he ran out a convincing winner in a maiden hurdle. His next run came on Trials Day at Cheltenham in January where he tracked the leaders and quickened turning for home. His nearest rival BREWIN’UPASTORM (r146) (Olly Murphy) fell at the final flight leaving him to canter up the hill to easily land this Grade 2 Ballymore trial. After the race I could tell the pundits on RacingTV had their loot on the faller, as they waxed lyrical about how unlucky the Murphy horse was not have landed the spoils. I agree the pair were likely to have fought out a good duel had Mrs Barbara Hester’s gelding stood up at the last. Their views were pointless, as we will never know if their arugment would have come to fruition but there is of course the prospect that the pair will be in the shake-up of the Ballymore in March for round two of this saga. At least the British team have two worthy candidates to figure in the eventual outcome of the Grade 1 Ballymore Hurdle. However, I feel the Irish team have the upper hand.
What about their rivals, particularly the Irish contingent.
KLASSICAL DREAM (Willie Mullins)(r148) has the Supreme or the Ballymore on his agenda and his chance was discussed earlier in the Supreme section. There is the possibility the longer trip will suit his style of running.
BATTLEOVERDOYEN (r144) (Gordon Elliott) this six-year-old son of Doyen remains unbeaten in his three outings this season. His first success came in a bumper at Punchestown. On his debut over hurdles he easily won a two mile maiden hurdle at Navan by 13 lengths in December. After this he was stepped up in trip to two and a half miles to tackle a Grade 1 at Naas on good ground in January. He took up the lead three out and although pushed along he quickened at the second last and drew clear of his rivals to win easily. There was a lot to like about the way he performed at this higher level and he looks sure to have a good chance of making the frame in the Ballymore at Cheltenham.
Contenders to Consider: BATTLEOVERDOYEN, BIRCHDALE, BREWIN’UPASTORM, CHAMP, KLASSICAL DREAM
RSA CHASE 3M 80yds Grade 1
Fate of the Favourite: 0 5 5 3 2 P 1 1 1 5 4 4 2/4Jf, 3/4JF, 1 1 1
Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 0 4 8 4 0 1 1 1 4 6 2 5 6 1 3 1 1
Winner’s SPs: 9/2, 33/1, 15/2, 25/1, 5/1, 14/1, 6/5F,
4/1F, 9/4F, 10/1, 16/1, 9/2, 8/1, 12/1, 13/8F, 8/1, 7/2
Winner’s Age: 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 6, 7, 8
There were 31 entries left standing by the middle of February, with SANTINI (r153) (Nicky Henderson) heading the betting lists. Last season he was considered to be just a shell of a horse and I’d agree with that description. However, there is something about him that does not sit right with me at the moment. He began his novice chasing campaign with a workmanlike success in a Grade 2 novices chase at Newbury in November. The pundits waxed lyrical about how well he looked prior to this success and continued to dribble about him before he ran at Kempton on Boxing Day. I think they thought he was a steering job to land the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. The writing was on the wall before the home turn as he laboured around the track and was well stuffed entering the home straight and eventually had no answer to the staying power of the Paul Nicholls trained TOPOFTHEGAME (r155) and probably the best novice chaser seen out this season in La Bague Au Roi (r150) trained by Warren Greatrex, who sidesteps Cheltenham in favour of attempting to continue her unbeaten run at Aintree in April. She is quite frankly as good a superb jumper over fences that I’ve seen in recent times. I respect the chance of the Nicholls runner having the ability and the form to go close in the RSA.
OK CORRAL (r153) (Nicky Henderson) was discussed in the National Hunt Chase section on Tuesday’s card. The extended three mile trip around Cheltenham might suit him better than the gruelling 4 miles of the event.
DELTA WORK (r156) (Gordon Elliott) is a seven-year-old son of Network, who gamely prevailed to win the Pertemps Hurdle in a driving finish by a nose at Cheltenham last March. This season he is unbeaten having won three times in Ireland. Firstly in a Beginners’ chase at Down Royal and then he won two Grade 1 Chases, including the Drinmore Chase over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse. On this occasion he had to recover from a mistake at the last that caused his rider Davy Russell to lose an iron and momentarily hand the advantage on the run-in to his rival LE RICHEBOURG. The partnership soon regained their composure and he battled on to land the spoils by half a length. That success was solid form. On his next outing his connections stepped him up in trip to three miles to contest the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase run on good ground at Leopardstown in December. During this race his jumping was a bit sketchy at times, as he made an error at the first fence. He was then hampered at the fifth and lost his position, dropping to the rear until making headway at the eighth into third place only to make another mistake at the tenth. He still managed to take up the lead three out and was pushed along and edged right at the last. He then proceeded to stay on well to land the odds by 8 lengths at the finish. I think he has a bit about him but in a good way. Looking back at his win at last year’s Festival he made a couple of little errors but they did not stop him getting up to win that hot handicap hurdle over three miles. I don’t think we have seen the best of Delta Work at this stage of his career and if he irons out those little mishaps he could develop into a very decent three mile chaser with a never say die attitude.
Contenders to Consider: DELTA WORK, OK CORRAL, SANTINI, TOPOFTHEGAME,
CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 5F 26yds Grade 3 Max 26
Fate of the Favourite: 5 0 1 3 9 F 0 0 1 0 0 2JF 0 5 3 0 0
Winner’s Position in the Market: 0 0 1 3 0 4 4 2 5 1 6 7 5 0 4 2 6 5 5/0 JF
Winner’s SPs: 33/1, 25/1, 4/1, 13/2, 33/1, 11/1, 10/1, 7/1, 14/1,
14/1, 16/1, 33/1, 14/1, 9/1, 12/1, 16, 20
Winner’s Official Rating: 138, 137, 130, 147, 131, 144, 128,
130, 140, 141, 142, 135, 148, 153, 139, 149, 148, 143
Winner’s Age: 9, 7, 6, 5, 5, 8, 8, 6, 6, 5, 8, 7, 7
The list of entries in this race after the weights were made is 127.
If you are looking to back each way, do look at the enhanced place terms being offered by the bookmakers, who are looking to give places beyond the first four finishers in the majority of Handicaps run at the Festival.
Should this year’s ante-post Favourite URADEL (r137) (Willie Mullins) win the race, then he will be running off the lowest rating in the past six years. This eight-year-old son of Kallisto won a 0-100 handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival in July. He was then brought down early on in a valuable Grade B Handicap at the same venue in August. His luck returned to a certain degree when he finished second in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October, where he was involved in a protracted duel in the final two furlongs and finished second beaten a neck by stable companion Low Sun. On his next outing on the Flat at Naas he was only eleventh in a valuable handicap in November.
Following a two month break he resumed his season with an eye-catching performance over hurdles at Leopardstown in the valuable Grade B Handicap Hurdle in February, where he made good progress in the final two furlongs to eventually finish fifth.
He is owned by a long standing patron of the Mullins yard, ‘Lucky Luke McMahon’, who has enjoyed lucrative success with his horses, including this race last year.
Obviously this horse has been laid out for the Coral Cup but he is number 80 in the list of runners and might not even get into the final 26 runners. Perhaps his entry in The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle might give him a better option of having a run at this year’s Festival. I’m going to look at other options that will surely be better value.
BREWIN’UPASTORM (r146) (Olly Murphy) He ran in the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day in January and was possibly an unlucky faller at the final flight when battling out the finish with Birchdale. Off his rating he falls into the category of those that have won the race in previous years but he might be better off running in the Ballymore
BLEU BERRY (r148) (Willie Mullins) owned by ‘Lucky Luke McMahon’ won the Coral Cup in 2018 at odds of 20/1 after finishing 17th in the same race that Uradel contested at Lepardstown this year.
BRIO CONTI (r146) (Paul Nicholls) Does not usually win by that far last time out and then just got up at Ascot to win a Class 2 Handicap by a head at odds of 25/1. Whether he can repeat this success at Cheltenham is open to question, as his last three runs have been right-handed. He did win going left handed at Doncaster in January 2017. Another to perhaps consider as an ew bet.
ERICK LE ROUGE (r137) (Mrs Jane Williams) is a progressive young handicapper, who started this season on a rating of 112 and following five successive wins has risen to a mark of 137. It’s been 16 years since a horse on that particular rating has won the Coral Cup but he is definitely thriving at present and could at least make the frame with those enhanced places being offered.
DANCING ON MY OWN (r145) (Henry de Bromhead) has some very consistent form in decent class novice hurdles and looks to be crying out for a step up in trip having run three times over two miles during the autumn and winter months. There will be a lot more to come from this five-year-old son of Milan.
Contenders to Consider: BLEU BERRY BREWIN’UPASTORM, BRIO CONTI
DANCING ON MY OWN ERICK LE ROUGE,
URADEL (also entered in the Martin Pipe Friday)
BETWAY QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 1M 7F 199yds Grade 1
Fate of the Favourite: 3 1 1 U 1 F F 2 1 4 8 2 1 1 1 P 2 7 1
Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 1 2 1 6 3 2 1 4 5 2 1 1 3 2 4 1
Winner’s SPs: 7/2, 7/4F, 7/4F, 15/8, 6/4, 16/1, 5/1,
3/1, 4/11F, 10/1, 10/1, 4/1, 1/4F, 11/4F, 9/2, 5/1, 11/1, evsF
Winner’s Age: 6, 5, 6, 9, 9, 9, 7, 8, 7, 10, 10 8
Surely ALTIOR (r175) (Nicky Henderson) has every chance of winning this prestigious race for the second consecutive season if he has a safe passage around the two mile course. Success here will take him to 18 straight wins over fences. He has already done so much, as one of the finest jumpers to ever tread the turf and deserves all the plaudits he will receive should he manage to gain another win at Cheltenham. He is a superstar.
Contenders to Consider: ALTIOR (He‘s Superstar of the jumping scene)
GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 3M 6F 37yds
Fate of the Favourite: F 1/6 1 6 2 5 4 P 7 3 0 1 4 3
Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 1 2 2 8 3 3 7 2 7 1 2 4
Winner’s SPs: 4/1, 7/2JF, 5/2, 4/1, 7/2, 25/1, 13/2, 11/2
14/1, 4/1, 16/1, 15/8F, 4/1, 7/1
Winner’s Official Rating: 143, 126, 126, 129, 150, 135, 140, 139, 136, 150, 134, 148, 142, 150
Winner’s Age: 10, 9, 10, 12, 9, 8, 8, 10, 10, 8, 9, 8
Irish trainers boast a formidable record, having taken 12 of the 14 renewals. Philip Hobbs, trainer of the 2012 and 2014 scorer Balthazar King, is the only British trainer to have been successful. The biggest priced winner A New Story provided a shock in 2010, scoring at odds of 33/1. Heads On The Ground is the shortest-priced winner, having obliged at 5/2 in 2007. The other market leader since 2007 was Josies Orders in 2016.
Last year TIGER ROLL (r159)(Gordon Elliott) won the race at odds of 7/1 and of course went on to the land the Grand national at Aintree. He is the ante-post favourite at 5/4 and should again run another big race.
Other contenders to keep in mind to chase him home include French raider URGENT DE GREGAINE (r142) (Emmanuel Clayeux), who finished second behind Tiger Roll last year.
AUVERGNAT (r143)( Enda Bolger) won the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase (110k race) at Leopardstown in December and has been aimed at this race since that success.
Contenders to Consider: TIGER ROLL, AUVERGNAT, URGENT DE GREGAINE
FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 87yds Grade 3 Max 22
Fate of the Favourite: 0 0 1/2 4 1 4 3 0 0 0 7 0 2 3
Winner’s Position in the Market: 9 0 1 4 4 1 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Winner’s SPs: 20/1, 40/1, 9/2JF, 14/1, 11/1, 4/1F, 8/1, 40/1, 25/1, 33/1, 25/1, 13/2, 33/1, 33/1
Winner’s Official rating: 124, 124, 130, 133, 125, 127, 115, 127, 127, 130, 131, 133, 134, 129
Winner’s Age: This is a race for four-year-olds only
I’m not even halfway through trying to sort out any sort of strategy to unravel the 10 Festival handicaps and as usual my head is hurting! Next up is an easy race to solve, as it will definitely be won by a four-year-old!
This race is now known at the Grade 3 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle after the demotion of the name of legendary jumps trainer Fred Winter to the brackets section of the title. I really think that the old guard of past leading Jumps trainers should never be forgotten if their names are given legendary status for past achievements. Let’s not forget such names are fond memories of their generation and we should never let them fade into obscurity.
You only have to look at the SPs of 6/7 previous winners to realise how difficult it is to solve this competitive juvenile handicap hurdle. Some punters might even consider reaching for their Festival pin and hover it over the depths of the weights or the betting list. The class of 2019 looks no different to recent years.
The key attributes for success here are that you will need to identify a juvenile with proven ability to stay and possibly had a top three finish in one of its two previous outings, preferably having won on at least one of those runs.
This season I consider the Irish juveniles to have the strongest form in the book.
SURIN (r136) (Gordon Elliott) has some strong form from his four runs in Ireland that include winning at Market Rasen in December when formally trained by Mario Hofer. He was then purchased by the ‘Giggy’ set-up to run in the maroon and white star colours plus various shades of jockeys caps. On his two outings in Ireland he has battled out the finish of two decent juvenile races with GARDENS OF BABYLON (r145) (Joseph O’Brien). The gold medal went to the O’Brien horse when they met at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. On this occasion there was half a length between them at the finishing line. Then Surin took the honours at Fairyhouse in January when holding on in a driving finish to win by a nose, in receipt of 12 pounds. He then stepped up to Grade 1 class at Leopardstown, where he ran a solid race to finish third behind Sir Erec. If he turns up here, I’d expect him to have every chance of finishing in the frame.
Another ‘Giggy’ horse to keep in mind is STAR MAX (r131) (Joseph O’Brien). Yes, the Giggy mob have infiltrated the bastions of the O’Brien clan with this former Flat winner in Germany. He finished third at Naas in January and then won a twenty runner maiden juvenile hurdle at Gowran Park in February. This one is darker than a moonless night.
COKO BEACH (r137) (Gordon Elliott) was formerly trained in France and won readily on his debut over hurdles at Nantes. Since joining the Giggy outfit he has run twice in Ireland and on his debut for his new stable finished ninth having been hampered at the last in a Grade 2 event at Leopardstown in December. He then finished a creditable third at Naas in February without being knocked about under hands and heels riding from Jack Kennedy. This horse was a 33/1 chance in the ante-post market at the beginning of March.
FRIEND OR FOE (r128) (Paul Nicholls) was formerly trained in France and made an eye-catching impression when making all on good to soft ground at Taunton at the end of December. He is at the wrong end of the betting market being one of the favourite to give the Ditcheat maestro his third win in the past five renewals of the Fred Winter.
Contenders to Consider:
COKO BEACH, FRIEND OR FOE, GARDENS OF BABYLON, STAR MAX, SURIN
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
2M 87yds Grade 1
Fate of the Favourite: 2 2 1 0 1 0 8 3 3 0 6 2 3/7 2 1 7 0 4
Winner’s Position in the Market: 6 6 1 2 1 0 2 5 2 0 6 7 0 0 1 2 3 0
Winner’s SPs: 14/1, 14/1, 2/1F, 7/1, 7/2F, 33/1, 11/2, 12/1, 9/2 40/1,
14/1, 16/1, 25/1, 16/1, 9/2F, 5/1, 7/1, 25/1
Winner’s Age: 5, 5, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 5
Only 28 original entries were made for the Grade 1 Festival Bumper at the end of February.
ENVOI ALLEN (Gordon Elliott) cost his new connections Cheveley Park Stud 400K to secure following his only win between the Flags at Ballinaboola, when trained by Colin Bowe. He has won on all three bumper outings at Fairyhouse, Navan and Leopardstown. During his win at Leopardstown in February, he had to be firmly ridden in the closing stages to see off METICULOUS (Joseph O’Brien) and owned by Michael Tabor. This son of Fame And Glory looks to have been brought along slowly and will have come on for the experience of Trials day in Ireland.
ASK FOR GLORY (Paul Nicholls) this five-year-old son of Fame And Glory made one appearance between the Flags at Bartlemy on soft ground in May and jumped and travelled to eventually win by 10 lengths. He made his British debut in a bumper at Chepstow in December where he made all to win impressively by 13 lengths on soft ground but it will be hard to know if he will be suited by fast ground if it happens to come up as decent good conditions.
GET IN THE QUEUE (Harry Fry) Although a bit green during the early stages of his racecourse debut at Uttoxeter in December, the penny soon dropped and he stayed on strongly up the home straight to win by 9 lengths. On his next outing at Exeter in February it was a case of fill in the blanks after the three furlong pole, as the other part of the race was run in thick fog! At the time when the field came into view he was just about to take up the lead and then he and his mates disappeared back into the pea soup. After a few minutes and a lot of pontificating by the racecourse commentator, who rabbited on about everything except for what he had for breakfast and how much he was enjoying the Brexit saga, Get In The Queue was the first to come into view but there was no sign of his mates. He was at least 20 lengths clear of his rivals and I thought he must have joined the race at the third furlong pole! There was no doubting he looked a very special horse, who must have a great chance of landing the Festival bumper for the home side since 2011.
Contenders to Consider: ASK FOR GLORY, ENVOI ALLEN, GET IN THE QUEUE,
METICULOUS
DAY 3 St Patrick's Thursday, March 14, 2019 (New Course)
JLT NOVICES’ CHASE 2M 3F 198yds GRADE 2 (NEW COURSE)
Fate of the Favourite: 2 8 2 4 1 1 1 2
Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 2 7 4 1 1 1 2
Winner’s SPs: 4/1, 3/1, 20/1, 7/1, 6/4, 4/1cf3, 6/4, 4/1
Official Ratings of winners: 147, 148, 147, 147, 154, 152, 155, 144
Winner’s Age: 7, 6, 7, 7, 6, 7, 7
Willie Mullins has sent out three previous winners of the JLT Novices’ Chase, Vautour, Black Hercules and Yorkhill. Seven of the eight renewals have gone to horses that ran over hurdles at a previous Festival and 5/7 were Graded winners over hurdles and seven of the eight winners were trained in Ireland, with Gordon Elliott landing the race for the first time last season with Shattered Love off an official rating of 144.
DROVERS LANE (r150) (Rebecca Curtis) Although he might not be on many punters minds to figure in the climax of this race, it is worth remembering he is actually on the same rating as some of those at the front of the ante-post market at the end of February(20/1). The handicapper has him on the same official rating as DEFI DU SEUIL. The Curtis trained horse has won his latest two chases, including a fine display to win a 15k Class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham in December when beating Le Breuil.
KILDISART(r147)(Ben Pauling) is another Cheltenham winner, landing a competitive extended two and a half mile handicap chase on Trials Day at the end of January. His previous success came at Ascot in December and he proved he acted going left-handed at Prestbury Park despite hitting the second last and going slightly left as he made the climb to the winning post. (ante-post 16/1).
If you are looking for some big priced runners, as possible value ew selections the likes of these horses will be worth considering.
With the Irish entries having enjoyed so much success in this relatively new Festival event, you have to look closely at their possible leading players here.
CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC (r150) (Gordon Elliott) Last year at the Festival, he won the Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle. This eight-year-old son of Stowaway has run twice over fences this season, finishing third at Naas in a Grade 3 novices’ chase and on his latest outing he finished second behind CHRIS’S DREAM (r140) (Henry de Bromhead) at Navan in a Grade 2, who also holds an entry in the JLT.
It looks to me as if the handicapper has rated the Elliott runner on what he has achieved over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
HARDLINE (r150) (Gordon Elliott) is a consistent performer over fences in Ireland having won on three of his five outings including a Grade 3 at Navan in December by 10 lengths and also a Grade 1 at Limerick on Boxing Day over an extended two miles and three furlongs on soft ground when beating Getabird by half a length.
Contenders to Consider: CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC, DROVERS LANE, HARDLINE, KILDISART,
PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE (handicap hurdle) (Listed) 2m 7f 213y Max 24
Fate of the Favourite: 4 0 1 7 0 8 0 2/8 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 4 2
Winner’s Position in the Market: 4 0 1 0 5 0 7 0 9 5 9 6 0 3 5 0 3
SPs of the winner’s: 8/1, 20/1, 50/1, 10/1, 50/1, 14/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 14/1, 25/1, 9/2, 9/1, 14/1, 11/1, 6/1
Winner’s Official Rating: 138, 130, 120, 121, 142, 140, 132, 129, 133,
138, 142, 140, 148, 138, 139, 146, 139
Winner’s Age: 8, 8, 7, 9, 10, 8, 6, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5
Only 48 entries stood their ground when the weights were revealed at the end of February. This fiercely competitive handicap has gone to the Irish contenders over the past three years. Pat Kelly famously sent out consecutive winners Mall Din (14/1) and Presenting Percy (9/1) and last year the best two backed runners on the day both trained by Gordon Elliott fought out the finish Glenloe (9/2F) and Delta Work (6/1) eventually getting the verdict by a nose from his stable companion. This was the third straight win in the race for jockey Davy Russell.
DAWN RAIDER (r129) (Pat Kelly) is a seven-year-old son of Mahler, who finished third in the Qualifer at Cheltenham in October when ridden by Davy Russell. This horse had run consistently when placed second twice and third on two other occasions before that Cheltenham outing. On his latest run at Gowran in February he burst a blood vessel. That is obviously a bit of a worry so close to Cheltenham.
‘Giggy’ have four entries this time around, A TOI PHIL (r146), CAP YORK (r144), CUNEO (r137) and MORMON (r133).
Henry de Bromhead sent out CUNEO to win a qualifier at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting. His other entry MORMON finished second also in a qualifier at Punchestown in February behind CAP YORK trained by Noel Meade.
A TOI PHIL (Gordon Elliott) finished fourth 12 lengths behind in the Punchestown Qualifier. Perhaps Mormon has the ability to make the frame.
THERMISTOCLES (r137) (Joesph O’Brien) finished third with a decent effort in the Leopardstown Qualifier behind Cuneo.
Of the British contenders FLEMCARA (r137) (Emma Lavelle) won the recent Exeter Qualifier in February and looks to be on an upward curve
Contenders to Consider: A TOI PHIL, CAP YORK, CUNEO, DAWN RAIDER, FLEMCARA, MORMON, THERMISTOCLES
RYANAIR CHASE
2M 4F 166yds Grade1
Fate of the Favourite: P 1/3 4 5 2 2 4 1 2 1 3 1 1 2
Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 3 2 2 8 2 1 2 1 8 1 1 3
Winner’s SPs: 9/2, 10/3, 9/2, 4/1, 6/1, 14/1, 6/1, 7/2F, 7/2, 3/1F, 16/1, EvsF, 7/4F, 8/1
Winner’s official rating: 155, 157, 152, 165, 156, 162, 166, 168, 169, 161, 176, 171, 166
Winner’s Age: 8, 9, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 6, 6, 8, 7, 7
The Ryanair Chase is usually won by horses with winning form at Cheltenham and Grade 1 winning form at other tracks.
FRODON (r169) (Paul Nicholls). I never expected this horse to make the progress he has achieved in the past couple of years. He and Bryony Frost have struck up a brilliant partnership when racing around Cheltenham. This season they have won the Grade 3 Handicap Chase run in December and the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase run in January. The entry here will see them have another attempt to win this race following their fifth placed effort in 2018 Cheltenham in March.
There is the chance that connections will run this Cheltenham specialist in the Gold Cup. My problem with this horse is will he have the stamina to get the trip in a truly run race. However the trip in the RyanAir will surely suit him, as he looks to have improved from last year.
FOOTPAD (r165) (Willie Mullins) Compared to his novice campaign when he won five races on the bounce including the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival and the Grade 1 Ryanair Novices’ Chase at the Punchestown Festival in April. On his two Irish outings this season, firstly at Naas in November where he sustained an overreach and then in December, where he finished second beaten half a length by Simply Ned in the Grade 1 two mile and one furlong at Leopardstown.
MIN (r167) (Willie Mullins) has won on both of his outings in Grade 1 races over two and a half miles at Punchestown in December and over two miles and one furlong at Leopardstown in January. Last season he was runner-up behind Altior in the Queen Mother Chase He was the favourite in the ante-post lists at the end of February (5/2). His chance in the Ryanair has to be seriously respected
ROAD TO RESPECT (r169) (Noel Meade) has an entry in the Ryanair but if the underfoot conditions happen to remain fast he might well take his chance in the Gold Cup on the Friday of the meeting.
CONEY ISLAND (r157) (Edward P Harty) Owned by J. P. McManus he ran twice in Ireland this season, finishing third over hurdles behind Apple’s Jade at Navan in November. Connections then ran him in December at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Savills Chase where he was not knocked about and finished seventh behind Kemboy. Although he stays three miles he has some decent form over two and a half miles. He will arrive at the Festival a fresh horse and has a good ew chance of making the frame in the Ryanair Chase.
Contenders to Consider: CONEY ISLAND, FRODON, FOOTPAD, MIN,
ROAD TO RESPECT
STAYERS’ HURDLE 2M 7f 213yds Grade 1
Fate of the Favourite: 6 1 1 2 2 3 F 1 4 1 1 1 P 2 2 1 3 5
Winner’s Position in the Market: 3 1 1 2 3 4 3 1 3 1 1 1 4 3 7 1 4 4
Winner’s SPs: 11/2, 13/8F, 9/4F, 9/2, 5/1, 8/1, 5/1,
11/8F, 6/1, 5/6F, 10/11f, 5/6F, 3/1, 15/2, 14/1, EvsF, 10/1, 12/1
Winner’s Age: 6, 10, 8, 9, 10, 8, 7, 8, 7, 7, 9, 7
PAISLEY PARK (r156) (Emma Lavelle) this seven-year-old son of Oscar is probably the most improved British staying hurdler in training, having won on all four of his outings this season. His wins have come at Aintree in a handicap hurdle in October and he followed this success with another fine display to land the valuable Grade 3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at the Betfair meeting in November. I thought that was a gutsy display as he was headed narrowly at the final hurdle but to his credit he stayed on to mow down the equally gallant Scottish raider Shades Of Midnight trained by Sandy Thomson in the final fifty yards.
Paisley Park was then stepped up to Grade 1 company and duly won the Long Walk Hurdle (now the JLT Hurdle) when staying on well to win by 2 lengths from the 40/1 shot West Approach. The pair met again when they resumed their rivalry in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials day in January. The pair again finished in the same order as they achieved at Ascot but perhaps the Lavelle trained gelding was even more impressive when storming up the hill to win by 12 lengths on this occasion. The bookmakers where obviously impressed as they installed the winner as the favourite (15/8) to land the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival in March. His owner could receive the biggest cheer of the week.
BLACK OP (r153) (Tom George) finished third, 14 lengths behind Paisley Park and West Approach when resuming his hurdling career following two races over fences in a short lived attempt to make the grade as a top class novice chaser. Last year, he finished second in the Ballymore behind Samcro.
KILBRICKEN STORM (r152) (Colin Tizzard) won the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ hurdle last March and began his novice chasing career with two runs over fences winning on his chasing debut at Ffos Las but was well beaten by Santini on his next outing. This sparked a rethink and connections have chosen to revert back to hurdles for the remainder of this season. He will have an obvious chance here if he bounces back to the level of form he showed to win at the Festival last year.
FAUGHEEN (r169) (Willie Mullins). He has run twice in Ireland this season but fell at two out on his second start behind Apple’s Jade in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown in December. That particular fall was the first time such an incident had happened to Faugheen in his 20 racecourse appearances. He might be in the autumn of his career but that performance at Punchestown showed he retains his ability and we know how much he enjoys his racing at the Cheltenham Festival. His chance of running another good race from the front here should not be underestimated.
SUPASUNDAE (r163) (Jessica Harrington). Last year he finished second behind Penhill in the Stayers’ Hurdle and has since run consistently including winning the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle at Punchestown in April. He has also finished second on four other occasions in Grade 1 company over two to two and a half mile trips. His consistency know no boundaries and should he take his chance here, it will be his first run back up in trip to three miles since last year’s Festival second.
Contenders to Consider: BLACK OP, FAUGHEEN, KILBRICKEN STORM,
PAISLEY PARK, PENHILL, SAMCRO, SUPASUNDAE,
Samcro’s not going. :p
Where’s that from?
Got sent it from the boss of my department from some geezer he knows. Tweed wearing jacket type.
Waff with the tl;dr post :cool:
He's picked five horses in every race.
It’s just a guide, really. Thought it was a decent read and to pass it on. I can’t wait to win thousands next week. The Sky Bet offer of money back as cash on the first race each day is getting obliterated through multiple accounts.
Yeah that offer is pretty irresistible.
Got £30 in total on Dan McGrue @ 14 at the 3.05 in Sandown. No idea why it’s such good odds and Cobden/Nicholls combination turns me on.
@Waffdon Think I got the first three days for the 1:30 race of Cheltenham locked in, not sure about day 4 though.
Day 1 - 1:30 (Single) Elixir De Nutz (7)
Day 2 - 1:30 (Single) Klassical Dream (8) or BattleoverDovyen (4.5), Brewin'upastorm (10), Birchdale (11)
Day 3 - 1:30 (Single) Drovers Lane (21), Kildisart (8)
I'm thinking Birchdale at 11s for Day 2, this is all on SkyBet :chief:
I love how whoever you ask about a race, most of them have a different take. It’s one of many reasons why racing is so good.
Depending on declarations and things, my picks for the Sky promo are probably:
Tuesday Rouge Vif
Wednesday Brewin’upastorm
Thursday Vinndication
Friday Sir Erec
I’ve purposely not really been looking at odds when choosing my horses. Hope I don’t end up with a list of the 28 favourites.
Tuesday: Fakir Doudairies/Grand Sancy
Wednesday: Beakstown
Thursday: Glen Forsa
Friday: Sir Erec
I’ll probs go on them for SkyBets thing.
I had Glen Forsa down for the Arkle. :uhoh:
Some tips for Cheltenham I got from someone ITK:
Toggle Spoiler
Does Kiko mind you leaking that?
:sherlock:
No fucking danger Third Wind lost that
They’ve taken it from the wrong winning post. Bookies better amend the result
:lol:
Double pay out!
Are we getting a Cheltenham Challenge going?
How?Quote:
Originally Posted by Manc
It seems weird and too good to be true, but my colleague (as mentioned in relationship thread) has a weird betting system that's got him about a grand in profit this season.
I'm not sure if it's pure luck and he's about to lose all his money, but every weekend he puts the same weird request-a-bet on skybet on a few football games - I'm not sure of the specifics but it's like both teams to have >x corners, both teams to get >x yellow cards, etc etc. He claims there's a method to which games he picks, but I'm unconvinced.
Also does anyone fancy doing one of those games where you start with a tenner and put a bet on every weekend and whoever has the most after a predetermined number of weeks wins?
Whats his Twitter? Or if you don’t wanna share that, start sharing his requestabets.Quote:
Originally Posted by igor_balis
"2+ goalsQuote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Booking + each team
5 corners to home 3 away"
That's the formula, I'll let you know which games he goes with.
Went to the resort casino to play blackjack and I'm SEETHING.
Idiots not knowing how to accurately play the game. Dealer is showing a 5, one player has 16, hits gets a 10. Dealer has 15 has to hit and gets a 4.
Selections in by 12pm on the day, 3 points for a win, 1 for a place and 5 if your NAP comes in. Selections preferably sent to the IT champion over private message. Kudos to the winner.Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Bagsy not it.
I would volunteer if I could access betting/racing sites in work, but I cannot.
I’m in two minds over Fakir and Klassical Dream now for tomorrow. Fuckkkk.
Went to the casino to play the automatic roulette table. After a while I nailed the pattern and came away with just over $200 profit.
"The pattern" :harold:
Isn't Fakir also entered for the Triumph? Might be pulled yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
There was a pattern.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
I had 10 small wins in a row and then a big one.
I kept betting $10 on Black, $10 on odd, $10 on 1-18 and at times $5 on 13 (when 13 came up I had the big win) and for some reason it was almost always a combination of those.
For some reason this auto table kept rolling blacks (when I arrived the split was something like 49ish% red, 47ish% black and then the rest on green. By the time I left the black percentage had swung to 54ish%. 1-18 was also at about 59ish% (at one point it as in the low 60's).
I went back about 10 minutes later and put another $10 in and had gotten up to $150 when the pattern changed (it was rolling high red numbers) and I was too slow to catch on and didn't cash out.
There are patterns/streaks on these auto spin tables which you don't get on a regular table.
To be fair I won £150 the other day off me starting with change. The machine just repeatedly went black and above 12. But that’s obviously a one off. Bottled putting higher stakes on it though.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
Toggle Spoiler
There are six 9s in a row about 700 digits into pi.
No idea what that means. I’ll go with fuck Mahow.
Stuck £25 free bet on Grand Sancy at 14s. Getting the missus to pick out of Klassical Dream and Fakir for SkyBet. Booked rest of the week off work. This is better than Christmas.
Ten 6s and they're about 40m digits in.Quote:
Originally Posted by SvN
Have you ever actually played an auto roulette table?
Yep, plenty of times.
Christ Mahow.
You're not going to beat Roulette, and people thinking they can is the reason casinos exist.
I didn't say I could beat it or think that I can.
I just managed to see the pattern at the time it was happening. After a while the pattern changed/stopped and I walked away.
It wasn't a pattern, it was a random series of spins.
Lets get on a new page. This ones blocked in work.
2 weeks since that website Dino recommended and I won a 30/1 accumulator. Reminds me a lot of a website called statto that disappeared.
Preston away win at Blackburn and Cheltenham beating Notts county should've helped this weekend too but for West Brom and Arbroath shitting the bed on a 60/1 7 fold.
Anyone remember Graham from dontwork.co.uk?
Free money Graham?
Fakir/Grand Sancy EW
Kalashnikov
Calipto EW
Apples Jade
Jester Jet EW (BDD should romp it)
Ben Dundee EW
Ok Corral/Atlanta Ablaze EW
Let’s goooooooo
Opted for Fakir @ 6/1. Free punt at £120.
The weight allowance and the rain has convinced me he’ll romp up that hill.
1:30 Cheltenham - Supreme Novices Hurdle
3 Points Win Angels Breath at 11/2 with Betvictor, Skybet +more (min price 11/2)
1 Point Each Way Itchy Feet at 33/1 with Bet 365, Paddy Power +more (min price 28/1)
2:10 Cheltenham - Arkle Chase
3 Points Win Duc Des Genievres at 13/2 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betvictor +more (min price 13/2)
2:50 Cheltenham - Ultima Handicap Chase
2 Points Each Way Minella Rocco at 10/1 with Skybet, Betway, Betvictor +more (min price 9/1)
3:30 Cheltenham - Champion Hurdle
1 Point Each Way Sharjah at 20/1 with Coral, Betvictor +more (min price 16/1)
1 Point Each Way Melon at 18/1 with Ladbrokes, Betvictor +more (min price 18/1)
4:50 Cheltenham - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase
1 Point Each Way Lough Derg Spirit at 22/1 with Bet 365, Coral, Betvictor +more (min price 18/1)
Today has been horrific
I lost on the first race of the day, got my £20 back.
I won on the 16:10, only had £2 on it, skybet boosted the odds or something so it was 10/1 :)
Ben Dundee EW has saved my bacon somewhat. OK Corral in the last will see a tiny wee profit somehow. Got a small amount on Atlanta Ablaze ew too.
Mon ok corral
Atlanta Ablaze was right in contention there before the fall. Dreadful stuff today.
I’ve been told tomorrow’s off @Waffdon
#ITK
I assumed it would be if the weather here is anything to go by.
I'll hold from making my bets then :sherlock:
It’s on :cool:
Brewin'upastorm. :henn0rz:
I’ve spunked my money on Gordon Elliot having a stormer.
1.30 - Bottleoverdoyen
2.10 - Delta Work
2.50 - Brio Conti to win, Eric Le Rouge and William Henry both EW
3.30 - Altior
4.10 - Tiger Roll to win and Amazing Comedy EW
4.50 - Coco Beach to win and Oi the Clubb Oi EW
5.30 - Envoi Allen
William Henry winning @ 33s will do nicely.
Well played
How does placepot work? I’ve had a winner and a place in each race so far.
Today was much better. Tiger Roll is in a class of his own - genuinely could challenge for Gold Cup and delighted the king came through again.
Yer Tiger Roll's got the Grand National sewn up again.
1.30 - Vindication, Lostintranslation
2.10 - First Assignment
2.50 - Frodon and Aso EW
3.30 - Paisley Park and West Approach EW (might nibble on Black Op too)
4.10 - Siruh Du Lac (Lizzie Kelly on board scares me tho). Didero Vallis EW
4.50 - Posh Trish and Queenofhearts EW
5.30 - No comment and Touch Kick EW
I think Paisley Park and Posh Trish piss it and hopeful of Frodon doing bits again. Last race is a shambles.
Defi Du Seuil, Frodon & Paisely Park @ 80/1.
I hope you win big today, @Waffdon :baz:
Going off recent form, avoid these horses at all costs.
Rennes TQ is a big ole price today.
That's an actual sport bet btw.
You bet on 15 year old Jap footballers mate
LETS FKN GOOOOK. Aso in second as well.
Praying for Paisley Park.
Be up about 800 in total if Posh Trips wins
£935 with best odds guaranteed. Scenes.
Very good day. Shame that 4.50 race cocked it up from being great. Top 3 all over 40/1. Christ.
Who are you all on tomorrow?
Native River and it’s the bank balance on if it rains. Birchdale and Sir Erec as well - the other races I’ll look at tonight but not v appealing but it’s Cheltenham.
The absolute state of SkyBet and their odds in the first tomorrow. 1.44 for Sir Erec and 5s for Quel Distin - you’re getting evens and 10s everywhere else.
They've disabled Best Odds Guaranteed for that race as well. :nono:
Got the missus involved in the risk free bet. Dunno why I didn't sooner. She's picked 66/1 Nelson River though. :rolleyes:
It's 10/11 on skybet😕Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
Native River and Presenting Percy are both on 4/1. Tipsters are pumping money on Presenting Percy for the Cup the madmen.
My picks would be: Sir Erec, Native River, Bun Doran on a Each Way Treble.
Aye they’ve changed that now but still no BOG and shite ew prices.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Doing a £40 Yankee on Sir Erec, Birchdale, Native River and Hazel Hill I think.
They've obviously been caned on the festival and the offer so killed the bog. Bit pathetic.
I've got an EW lucky 63 with the following, excluding the 13:30:
Also done some actual number crunching (!) and will put another acca on with these, once I get my money back from Sir Erec after the first:
13:30 Quel Destin
14:10 We Have A Dream
14:50 Allaho
15:30 Native River
16:10 Pacha Du Polder
16:50 Le Prezien
17:30 If You Say Run
Hopefully I miraculously get 1-2 for every race and get Twitter famous.
Been terrible so far, tbh. :(
Accumulators are a great way to lose money.
Anything that gets hyped in betting ads is a great way to lose money, no better examples than the 'acca'.
As soon as they're marketing it, avoid it. Also why does every advert gambler have a black best mate?
Same as create your own bet nonsense. Singles are the only way to profit.
I've been trying to tell my dad that cashing out is, generally, the worst thing you can conceivably do. He still regularly takes the twelve quid profit off his two quid accumulator at 60/1 when a couple or legs are winning. The mind boggles.
It's a successful play on human instinct. As a hunter gatherer would you rather have a deer and 10 berries now, or possibly 5 deer and 100 berries later but also possibly nothing. I'm taking dinner, but of course that's not the same dynamic as sports gambling. But people think it is.
We do it for fun, breh. Hence my £40 Yankee and £20 super Heinz lolz.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kikó
Mon the fucking Sir Erec, Le Coq, Birchdale, Native River, Hazel Hill.
Super Erec, Clan des Obeaux & Shantou Flyer @ 83/1.
Erec lost his shoe :D
Cunt shouldn’t hav raced
Tuned in to see him die. Horrible, horrible sport.
Absolutely horrendous. Makes you feel sick when you see it happen
I was thinking that. The guy who put his shoe back on didn't fill me with confidence :sherlock:Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffdon
I don't think the shoe made the horse break his leg.
Shouldn’t have raced
They’re absolutely unrelated. Different leg, even. Just a terrible accident.
Don’t care. Pissed aff. Just ordered half que
Smashed it this afternoon. £130 up. Good meet.
Would of won that if Sir Erec didn't unfortunately fell earlier :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleb
http://i68.tinypic.com/15odzrq.jpg
Hull threw away a 2-0 lead. Raging. QPR always seem to fuck bets over for me, whether I bet on or against them, they'll fuck it up.
Hull fucked me over too. And one of my friends for about a grand.
There’s a lot of money going on Halsafari in the first st Limerick tomorrow. Reports of one 10k at the Leicester Betfred and two other massive lumps elsewhere. :sherlock:
Whew, easy money. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
Napoli, Barca & Bayern to win by 4 goals @ 116/1.
I backed Mr Fitzroy in the 5.05 last night at 55/1 and now it’s 12/1. Shame I’m banned from Betfair and couldn’t lay it.
I could be wrong but that Gossiping in the 7.30 at Kempton is the lay job of the century. The jockey is fucking awful too.
Shite tip Shane strikes again :D
Bring on the proper flat racing
That's a right kick in the balls.
This guy is on decent form recently - https://mobile.twitter.com/nawskotipping1
:lol:
(@mahow)
A bit of local gossip.
Yangon FC are on the take tonight and will lose against Hanoi. Kick off in 15 mins
@ 1.083
Either Yangon are shit, or that's already public knowledge.
Probably both.
If anyone wants to watch https://www.facebook.com/31992706554...3897759877322/
Reminds me of the good old days :sherlock:
What scores it?
1-0 Yangon :D
The AFC cup is probably the dodgiest competition in world football. Every year without fail the sides from Cambodia, Laos and Burma fix at least a couple of their group stage matches.
Ha. Fuck Hanoi.
That's a proper TTH :sherlock: