U.S. Presidential Election 2016 (Sponsored by Betty Croker's Hamburger Helper)

[Offshore Toon]

I jumped on about an hour ago. #StressFreeMoney

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've improved my Biden position to a profit of £2.57. Total stakes probably pushing a grand. What a waste of time.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Philadelphia has only reported 49%, they're going to swing Pennsylvania to Biden.

[Kikó]

Biden massive favourite now.

Has somewhere else announced or updated the position?

Wisconsin plus outstanding mail in votes.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The bookies really shat the bed after that Florida result. Trump may still win, but Biden's price had no right being the best part of 4/1.

I think they also underestimated the postal votes.

[Alex]

How do you run against an incumbent idiot and do this badly?

By being 77 years old and fairly often looking and acting every inch a man who should be in a retirement home, I reckon. Ultimately it looks like people will take a doddering old bastard over a crazy old bastard. But only just.

[Manc]

https://youtu.be/3DbE2SmV2bs

[Kikó]

By being 77 years old and fairly often looking and acting every inch a man who should be in a retirement home, I reckon. Ultimately it looks like people will take a doddering old bastard over a crazy old bastard. But only just.

Wait until the count finishes as it might be bigger than you think.

[phonics]

Because only a tiny percentage of the people who live in the 8 states that matter change vote based on the leader. Just today they voted in a Republican who died of COVID last month. Letter beside your name > name.

[Spikey M]

Biden is a joke candidate, he's just lucky to be up against an absolute car crash. Put him against Bush and he gets nowhere near the Whitehouse.

(That's not to say Bush wasn't a car crash, obviously)

[phonics]

Biden is a joke candidate, he's just lucky to be up against an absolute car crash. Put him against Bush and he gets nowhere near the Whitehouse.

(That's not to say Bush wasn't a car crash, obviously)

I'm not sure putting him up against the guy who had to get his brother and the Supreme Court to fix it for him as an example was the best play there.

[phonics]

Also we don't factor in that Trump is basically a psion for these people's hatred of other people and so they just assume he agrees with whatever opinion they have.

https://i.imgur.com/959Ov6h.png

[-james-]

It's probably not going to end up being particularly close. Florida, a massive outlier, coming first really skewed perceptions.

[Yevrah]

Looks like that's Blockbusters then.

Bring on Trump getting frog marched from the whitehouse and the prosecutions gearing up again when he's finally out. :drool:

[Disco]

Where's that tweet when you need it.

[Spikey M]

I'm not sure putting him up against the guy who had to get his brother and the Supreme Court to fix it for him as an example was the best play there.

I used him because he's the most recent.

[Yevrah]

1324004491612618752

All a bit tragic now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1324007806694023169

The tears :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

That first one is basically a concession.

In fairness to him, the way they count and report the votes is an absolute shambles.

[Disco]

He also spent months telling his supporters that mail ballots were fraudulent, it can't be that shocking to discover not many are for him.

[Spikey M]

Didn't he spend ages telling people not to vote by post? But now he's surprised that the postal votes aren't going his way?

Edit: there's an echo in here apparently

[Ian]

They've probably had to explain to him many times why mail votes were bad for them and he's still too thick to get it.

I'm imagining "When I press your foot and say 'Hello, Mr Thompson'"-type scenes.

[-james-]

https://twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324007227582259200

:harold:

[Bernanke]

1323938729342439424

[Spikey M]

Christ I hope he manages to con them into 4 more years. :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Still 1 million mail in votes in Pennsylvania and Biden has so far been taking 70% of the mail votes there.

Trump holds a 500k lead there but if Biden's numbers hold he's taking it.

[Don]

He's not exactly going to go back to anonymous golf holidays and a book deal. The man will tour the heartlands holding these events and attempt to overthrow the government.

[niko_cee]

Yeah, I was wondering that. At first I thought he'd just be off back to Trump Tower/that Florida place he likes, but the more I think about it, the more I imagine he's now just going to start the Trump 2024 campaign asap.

[Bernanke]

He's gonna be in dire need of cash to fight all his legal battles and pay off debt, so he'll do events with entrance fees and start a super PAC or something to grift some more.

[Yevrah]

If there's the motivation there (I'm sure there is) and it's 'appropriate' to prosecute an ex-president (I'm less convinced), he'll probably be in prison by 2024.

[niko_cee]

Let's be realistic, he's not going to be in dire need of cash.

Dipping in and out of the CNN coverage all day I dearly hope Biden wins. They won't know what to do with themselves if they're confronted by another 4 years of Trump.

As for trials and shit, more likely the Republicans seize the house midterm and try to impeach Biden.

[mikem]

Lol, this election cycle is so silly. The results are really what you should have predicted all along since the primary. How it all happened feels totally bizarre.

Did people really think a party that isn’t even trying to win rural votes was winning Texas? Or flipping senate seats in R+15 states? We are just gonna keep repeating these cycles until one party legitimately tries to win the other sides voters. I’m skeptical of his tactics but Bernie did at least identify that.

[Don]

Slovenian PM standing in solidarity with Melania and congratulating Trump on his victory is proper third world business :D

[phonics]

Biden is going to win Wisconsin because 1% of the state voted Libertarian instead of Trump :D

[Lewis]

I never dared to dream, but Trump winning with 'Latino' votes would be unimaginably hilarious. Pepe would wake up white.

[Browning]

Still 1 million mail in votes in Pennsylvania and Biden has so far been taking 70% of the mail votes there.

Trump holds a 500k lead there but if Biden's numbers hold he's taking it.

Wouldn’t that split the million as 700,000 to 300,000 and Trump would still win?

Not that Biden needs it, if the numbers I’m seeing are accurate.

[Pepe]

I never dared to dream, but Trump winning with 'Latino' votes would be unimaginably hilarious. Pepe would wake up white.

'Racism' has already morphed into 'anti-black racism' so that the question about Asian success can be avoided altogether, so I think that we are already under the bus. I guess this will just lower our standing in the disadvantage Olympics even further.

[Lewis]

Whittling it down to 'descendants of slaves' or whatever it is to even edge African migrants out had me lolling when I first saw it. Donal Trom has your back lad, and so does the rest of the white community.

[Pepe]

Those Nigerians getting in the way do need to be dealt with.

[Giggles]

What’s the actual story for the layman now because Twitter is just everyone claiming their own favourite has already won.

[Disco]

They're still counting in the last few states.

[Kikó]

Biden is in a good position but still a few days away from knowing.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Biden should have it.

Looks like Michigan and Wisconsin have gone blue and then he just needs 1 of Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania (assuming Arizona is blue like a lot of outlets have).

[Giggles]

If the other lad isn’t on for stepping down will the military get to remove him? :drool:

[Kikó]

He stops being the president by default in Jan 21 so he can kick and scream all he wants but then I guess the secret service would remove him.

[Shindig]

He'll leave in an orderly fashion but send contradictory tweets.

[Spikey M]

Apparently the highest voter turn out in history, with Biden having the most votes ever and Trump having the most votes of any loser. He'll find a way to spin that and his conspiracy nonsense and leave with his 'head held high'.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

New York Times is listing Wisconsin as DONE. So are AP:

1324068335177388039

[Spoonsky]

Did people really think a party that isn’t even trying to win rural votes was winning Texas? Or flipping senate seats in R+15 states? We are just gonna keep repeating these cycles until one party legitimately tries to win the other sides voters. I’m skeptical of his tactics but Bernie did at least identify that.

Yeah, this is it.

Whether Trump ends up winning or losing the level of division in the country is way too extreme, and I don't see any way out of it.

[Lewis]

Federalism.

[Spikey M]

Yeah, this is it.

Whether Trump ends up winning or losing the level of division in the country is way too extreme, and I don't see any way out of it.

Ban Social Media.

[Manc]

What odds can I get on Biden dying in office?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://i.imgur.com/oS1JR54.png

:harold:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1324090917419175946

:D

lol.

[Yeldoow]

Is this going to end up being a comfortable win for Biden that only seemed close because of the delays in counting the mail in ballots?

[Shindig]

I hope so because a narrow win means we'll never hear the end of it.

[randomlegend]

1324007806694023169

The President of the United States. It sounds like a 12 year old trying to use interesting words in a SATs essay.

[Lewis]

It's clearly someone else sending them whilst he's doing whatever, and whoever it is they get his tone all wrong.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1324108200141082624

[Disco]

Is Gazza about to turn up on Pennsylvania Avenue with a roast chicken and some tinnies?

[Queenslander]

President Biden :cool:

Fox has 264 - 214

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair's odds on the remaining important states:

Arizona: 1.21 Biden
Georgia: 1.75 Trump
Nevada: 1.15 Biden
Pennsylvania: 1.35 Biden

[Queenslander]

Trump voters turning on Fox News in the comment section.

:drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Anecdote going round about Trump calling Rupert 'Still Alive' Murdoch to complain about Fox News calling Arizona for Biden, only to be told to fuck off. Rupe :cool:

[Queenslander]

Cherry on top will be the Neo-cons lolling Trump out of the Whitehouse

[Smjffy]

1324108668116307968

I just don't even know how to do it.

https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1324108668116307968?s=20

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1324108668116307968

It's not rocket science.

[Smjffy]

I quoted your own and copied but it still doesn't do it?

[Yevrah]

[ TWITTER]Insert number here[/TWITTER]

Smiff, there's a number in each tweet link. Copy just that and stick it in between the tags above, removing the space in the first one.

[Boydy]

also works.

[tweet]1324085768055304196

[Yevrah]

Wish Trump had won after seeing that.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Pennsylvania and Georgia coming in :drool:

I think Biden takes Nevada, Arizona and Penn to give him 290.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The exchange on Betfair is now favouring Biden (1.83) to take Georgia.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Trump's team has now put in a lawsuit against Georgia.

[Yevrah]

It's not even going to be close in the end and no-one likes a loser whinging about it. Cut your losses and give Stormy a call Donnie.

[Smjffy]

[ TWITTER]Insert number here[/TWITTER]

Smiff, there's a number in each tweet link. Copy just that and stick it in between the tags above, removing the space in the first one.

1324108668116307968

https://i.ibb.co/47LgRwH/Untitled.png

I'm sure I've done it before.

[John Arne]

'tweet', not 'twitter'

[Queenslander]

Is there one for Facebook?

[John Arne]

I don't believe so.

[Queenslander]

Damn.

[John Arne]

[thezuck]



text.

[Queenslander]

[thezuck]



text.

The amount of Boomers on Australian Facebook boasting about being zucked is staggering.

[SvN]

I edited your post Smiffy - there was a colour tag in there for some reason, presumably because you pasted the number from somewhere else. You can see in your screenshot that the numbers are slightly darker than the tags.

Always CTRL + SHIFT + V to paste as plain text.

[SvN]

Is there one for Facebook?

It might be possible to add one - give me an example of a link you'd like to embed.

[Queenslander]

It might be possible to add one - give me an example of a link you'd like to embed.

https://www.facebook.com/131855023499821/posts/3842504679101485/

Just as a test.

Thank you.

[Kikó]

How did you get Jack Torrence's facebook page?

[Spikey M]

:D simpler, happier times.

[Queenslander]

:lol:

[Dark Soldier]

https://i.imgur.com/CyhZjmv.jpg

[mugbull]

Lots of ppl (Nate Silver) losing confidence about Biden keeping Arizona. Don't know why, I'm pretty sure the remaining votes come from D areas and absentee ballots

[Mellberg]

As Maricopa County released the results from 140,000 more ballots on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, president Donald Trump received almost the exact share he would need to charge back to win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and potentially reelection.

Trump won the batches of ballots from Maricopa County counted Wednesday and early Thursday by a roughly 57-40 margin over former vice president Joe Biden.

Those votes — likely early ballots sent to the county on Monday and Tuesday — narrowed Biden’s lead over Trump in Arizona to 68,000 votes, when his lead had been more than 90,000 votes earlier Wednesday.

Paul Bentz, a Republican pollster with the consulting firm HighGround, said Trump needs to win 57.6% of the 470,000 votes that the Arizona Republic estimates remain to be counted.

“That’s almost exactly what he got in the first batch,” Bentz said. “He could do it.”

Sounds feasible. Had Biden @ 3.1 on the night. Just hedged with Trump @ 6.4 :drool:

[Boydy]

1324175651515949056

This is kinda hypnotic.

[Disco]

1324180525456777216

[Boydy]

1324180525456777216
:lol:

[Spikey M]

That's face melting stupidity. Fuck me.

[Disco]

Elected to office three times, a number I'm not certain he could count to.

[randomlegend]

Is that super old or has it happened twice?

EDIT: OLD

[Ian]

I'd not seen that before, that is excellent.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Stunning.

[niko_cee]

That is good.

As is the guy walking through the back at 1.08 on Boydy's.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1324314406784765954

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£40 on Biden to win Georgia @ 1.7.

[Don]

How has no decent mentalist done a Columbine on one of these counting centres yet?

[Giggles]

What’s the story now lads?

[Disco]

Still counting the last few states, Biden almost certainly the winner.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The Pennsylvania secretary of state reckons they might be able to finish counting most of their votes by the end of the night.

If Biden wins (which looks very likely) he's won.

[niko_cee]

It feels like it should be done by now so I'm still braced for all outcomes.

Trump is still ahead in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania (which would give him the win) isn't he?

[Browning]

He is but that would not give him the win. He would also need Arizona or Nevada.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

No.

He'd still need one of Nevada or Arizona.

He doesn't look likely to hold Georgia and Pennsylvania anyway.

[Disco]

The one thing I don't understand is every shot of the counting centres has about 6 people not doing anything with any sense of urgency. Get a fucking move on you mongs.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The one thing I don't understand is every shot of the counting centres has about 6 people not doing anything with any sense of urgency. Get a fucking move on you mongs.

Nevada are the worst.

They're updating once per day and going very slowly.

[Alex]

The one thing I don't understand is every shot of the counting centres has about 6 people not doing anything with any sense of urgency. Get a fucking move on you mongs.

:D

Must be on a decent hourly rate.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Biden needs 58-61% of the remaining votes in Pennsylvania to take it and he's been taking around 75% of the votes in the last 24 hours.

[Spoonsky]

How has no decent mentalist done a Columbine on one of these counting centres yet?

Biggest difference between the Trumpies and the OG Italian fascists is that, for all their noise, they still haven't been willing to go full blackshirt.

I'd say there's a pretty good chance Biden will win Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia, albeit by a tiny margin in Georgia.

[Spoonsky]

And if that's the case, then you'd have to say this presidential election hasn't been particularly close, it's just been made to look that way by the unique timing of the ballot counting this year. But that false perception (that it was actually very close, and potentially even stolen by Democrats) will be enough to fuel the GOP fire for the next four years.

[Shindig]

Yeah, it's like the Trumpettes got their votes in early and it's swung back the other way hard.

[Spikey M]

1324428738235346945?s=19

[Lewis]

It's still a bit too close though isn't it bearing in mind how they framed it (and have constantly framed it). If you can only just win an existential 'unity' election it suggests their is a solid base for a less vulgar woman-friendly twat to blast you next time.

[Spoonsky]

It's still a bit too close though isn't it bearing in mind how they framed it (and have constantly framed it). If you can only just win an existential 'unity' election it suggests their is a solid base for a less vulgar woman-friendly twat to blast you next time.

Definitely. It's clearly not the landslide which would wipe out Trumpism, as a lot had hoped, and Democrats are going to have to rethink a lot of their strategy now that they see that these Trump voters haven't magically disappeared. That reality check is probably a good thing going forward (if the DNC aren't too thick and useless to get it, which is possible).

All I'm saying is that the unique timeline along which things have unfolded plays particularly well into the Trump grievance complex. You're going to have a sizeable percent of the population who think this election was stolen, which wouldn't have happened if the results had been announced in reverse order (for example).

[Lofty]

Everyone mugs off the vote count racing saddos in the UK election but now they have earned their smug satisfaction.

[Lewis]

Proper cringing at my spelling mistake there. STOP THE THREAD!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Definitely. It's clearly not the landslide which would wipe out Trumpism, as a lot had hoped, and Democrats are going to have to rethink a lot of their strategy now that they see that these Trump voters haven't magically disappeared. That reality check is probably a good thing going forward (if the DNC aren't too thick and useless to get it, which is possible).

All I'm saying is that the unique timeline along which things have unfolded plays particularly well into the Trump grievance complex. You're going to have a sizeable percent of the population who think this election was stolen, which wouldn't have happened if the results had been announced in reverse order (for example).

That's because so many states weren't allowed to count early votes and mail ins until election night so had a huge backlog.

They should have adapted (which America hates) as there was always going to be a huge amount of mail in votes due to the pandemic.

[Spoonsky]

That's because so many states weren't allowed to count early votes and mail ins until election night so had a huge backlog.

They should have adapted (which America hates) as there was always going to be a huge amount of mail in votes due to the pandemic.

It was actually intentional, the Republican-controlled state legislature in PA prevented them from beginning to count mail-in ballots until the polls had closed (compared to lots of other states which started way earlier). They knew that the 'red mirage' on election night might give Trump a chance to claim victory - at best to stop the counting, at worst to claim it had all been stolen from him.

[mugbull]

And if that's the case, then you'd have to say this presidential election hasn't been particularly close, it's just been made to look that way by the unique timing of the ballot counting this year. But that false perception (that it was actually very close, and potentially even stolen by Democrats) will be enough to fuel the GOP fire for the next four years.

I don't know what you're saying, it's still really fucking close. Wisconsin by 20k votes, Georgia within a few thousand. Pennsylvania, who knows, but probably ~0.3% difference. Insanely thin margins, just like 2016.

[Yevrah]

I had an otherwise really intelligent friend of mine the other day still behoved to the notion that people voting for Trump are doing it as some sort of protest.

It's seemingly very hard for people to accept (let alone comprehend why) that he's fucking popular and people vote for him because they like him.

[mikem]

Lewis

I think they should put much more faith in the state parties. I go to the party meetings here in Maricopa and the AZ state party has had a very clear plan that they have executed really well. It started a decade ago by winning a referendum on getting redistricting done not by the state legislature but by independent commission. That led to an environment where now 5 of 9 of the House delegation are D and one chamber of the state legislature may break D. They also prioritize Hispanic outreach through the Service Unions instead of walking around going “wow, you are brown let’s talk immigration!!!” This has helped pick up two straight statewide Senate wins and maybe the presidential. It is very impressive when you consider the last statewide win was in 92.

It is far more successful than the airlifted $150 million ad campaigns in Kentucky and South Carolina that are R+20 states. Build a grassroots party first. Otherwise you get a Biden which will sometimes win or lose. You’ll absolutely never get any of the progressive policies until you start being competitive in Kansas or Iowa. And it will just swing back to R’s in the next cycle.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is there any tangible evidence for the insane ad spends in American politics making a blind bit of difference to anything?

[mikem]

Consultants have big homes?

Trump spent less in 2016; Biden spent the least in the primary. Money does help in two ways. At the national level we are just a massive country and money is needed to get enough name recognition if you are not a pre-aware brand. We had three popular governors (including from red states) and they couldn’t get the profile to compete in the primary. On a state level, lots of races for State Legislature or whatever are won simply because one side has a professional campaign (maybe 10-30k) and the other does not. It is how R’s racked up all those wins inside states.

[Spoonsky]

It's still a bit too close though isn't it bearing in mind how they framed it (and have constantly framed it). If you can only just win an existential 'unity' election it suggests their is a solid base for a less vulgar woman-friendly twat to blast you next time.

Back to this point, I'm not sure how much the enthusiasm for Trump can just transfer to somebody else. He's a really unique candidate, and someone who's less vulgar and more woman-friendly would probably have a much harder time generating the kind of enthusiasm he does; people love him and despise him for exactly the same reasons.

That's probably going to be one of the biggest questions of the next few years, whether any other Republican can fill his place. Same problem with Bernie and the progressive left.

[Bernanke]

1324036720870985729


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vk-ZBYyjsko&ab_channel=MaxSpeedster

This is uncanny.

[Disco]

Bang on about Scooby Doo too.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Trump's lead down to 78k in Pennsylvania now :drool:

[Don]

Looking at Betfair market and Kamala is coming in at 500s. If sleepy Joe wakes up no longer in the next 2 months, does it automatically become her?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Looking at Betfair market and Kamala is coming in at 500s. If sleepy Joe wakes up no longer in the next 2 months, does it automatically become her?

Stick your house on it.

Edit: Scenario 4: https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden-death-what-happens

It seems that they don't really know what would happen. The Vice President Elect would be the logical choice but...

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Trump to say some words at half past.

[Shindig]

Those will be "Great. Thank you. BEST!"

[Don]

Trump to say some words at half past.

Half past what and where, man?!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Half past the current hour (so in just over 10 minutes) and it will probably be shown everywhere.

I'm watching CNN but I imagine all news outlets will show it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The whole of twitter seems to be watching CNN. Why? This was over 36 hours ago.

[Don]

I'm locked on to BBC. Out of baby oil so I've had to down a pint of milk to get the saliva consistency right. Let's go.

[Lewis]

Back to this point, I'm not sure how much the enthusiasm for Trump can just transfer to somebody else. He's a really unique candidate, and someone who's less vulgar and more woman-friendly would probably have a much harder time generating the kind of enthusiasm he does; people love him and despise him for exactly the same reasons.

That's probably going to be one of the biggest questions of the next few years, whether any other Republican can fill his place. Same problem with Bernie and the progressive left.

The numbers have always suggested that he does well in spite of himself, i.e. winning last time out with barely any more votes than the previous stiffs, and that people like Trumpism - border wall, [economic] nationalism, etc. - more than they like the silly bastard pushing it. He just had the force of personality to actually get it a hearing when it would normally be squashed by the party machine like when Pat Buchanan was advocating the exact same stuff in the nineties; but it is established now, and the 'Trump Republican' is a thing, so he has done his bit not unlike how Bernie 'Bernie' Sanders has made the pinko wing an on-going concern for his side.

From a voting point of view, the sort of people who get RIGHT INTO IT, with the pick-up trucks and the flags and all that shite, are overwhelmingly likely to vote Republican anyway (or at least for a 'Trump Republican'), so they just need someone to hold the rest of the Trump program[me] together to keep the wider working class vote intact. Get somebody ostensibly normal who still wants to kick immigrants and 'Big Tech' around and you're laughing, especially if the next Democrat candidate is some awful woman folding her arms at half the country (which it will be). Tom Cotton would be my early favourite, with his military background and ability to speak normally. They - both sides - need to study what has gone on here over the past few years, and our Conservative Party need to be watching with half an eye on what they replace Boris Johnson with.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The reason he's done so well though is because he's managed to get a HUGE turnout from farmers/hicks/mongs from backwater places, isn't it?

Would they still get that level of turnout from someone else?

[Spoonsky]

I think you underestimate Trump's warlock-like powers as a hypnotist; when you ask supporters what they like about him, it's often precisely his refusal to "speak normally." I agree that someone like Cotton (alias 7om) is the natural choice as successor, and he's probably going to run, but I'm not sure he'll be able to generate the same cult-like enthusiasm as Trump does.

There's also definitely going to be some competition in terms of people trying to tie themselves to him, so the Trump conservatives won't necessarily all automatically unite.
Lewis

[Queenslander]

The reason he's done so well though is because he's managed to get a HUGE turnout from farmers/hicks/mongs from backwater places, isn't it?

Would they still get that level of turnout from someone else?

Sounds like Queensland every Federal election.

[Disco]

He's fucking lost it. :D

[Lewis]

Yeah, they like it; but 1) actual 'Trump supporters' are a small minority of his actual vote; and 2) they will still vote for the Republican Party if his successors is sufficiently pro-gun and anti-nonce. I suppose he was probably necessary in shaking things up and sticking rocket boosters on the re-alignment that had been going on for years, but the hard work has been done there, like how Brexit coaxed certain places into defying the Labour Party for the first time in their lives, so the first-timers and lifelong Democrats who you could say he won over are an easier win now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Fake polls for fake news.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He's complaining about how one sided the postal votes are despite telling his supporters not to vote via mail...

[Lewis]

This is immense. :lol:

[Queenslander]

Extreme projection within the anti nonce brigade.

[Lewis]

It's like someone has challenged him to fill a certain amount of time.

[Yevrah]

They really are going to have to frog march him out, aren't they?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/579674700687474688/774057137806639174/Screenshot_20201105_184636_com.twitter.android.jpg

[Yevrah]

It's like someone has challenged him to fill a certain amount of time.

All his press conferences are like that, it's genuinely amazing.

[Spoonsky]

He's basically speaking in tongues. No wonder he does so well in West Virginia.

[Lewis]

That last shenanigans line was mega.

[Queenslander]

They really are going to have to frog march him out, aren't they?

I want a joint press conference with Bush, John Bolton, Mitt Romney etc explaining to him how the voting system works.

[Disco]

We got Sad Donald :drool: the trudge out the door at the end was great.

[Don]

That was the best one yet and I say that as a man who stayed up forthe COVID ones in the great summer of 2020. So, so good.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Leading by just 3635 now in Georgia.

[Jimmy Floyd]

God I miss George Bush. He would have beaten the crap out of Biden.

[Yevrah]

He's played a blinder there though mind.

It's out there now, in all its glory, and we all know people listen to him, so what in the fuck is Biden supposed to do in response?

[Yevrah]

And imagine if one idiot somewhere, in isolation at a polling station, has tried to fiddle something and it's exposed?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Why is British twitter shitting itself at midnight about this? Go to bed you fucking morons.

[Spoonsky]

He's not supposed to do anything. He'll wait until he wins the count, and then claim victory.

[Yeldoow]

For all his bullshit about fraud and litigation, Trump looked utterly defeated there. Very "low energy".

[Boydy]

Why is British twitter shitting itself at midnight about this? Go to bed you fucking morons.

We're doing the same on here?

[Smjffy]

I remember the days when I was called unhinged. :cool:

Game, set, match, Trump.

[Spoonsky]

For all his bullshit about fraud and litigation, Trump looked utterly defeated there. Very "low energy".

You have to realize that this is the first time the man's faced consequences in his entire life. It must be pretty demoralizing.

[Lewis]

We're doing the same on here?

I bet his follow list reads like a who's who of people who mattered in 2011.

[Don]

Why tf did I not run with "if you count the legal votes, I easily win" post Mod Idol? Absolute gold.

Also big lols were had with "Philadelphia and Detroit, two of the most politically corrupt regions. Even more so now."

Philadelphia and Detroit got any particularly noteworthy demographics?

[phonics]

God I miss George Bush. He would have beaten the crap out of Biden.

Would have got Jeb and the Supreme Court to fix it for himself instead of the low energy complaints.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Down to 42k in Pennsylvania as Biden took 87% of the latest votes counted.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I bet his follow list reads like a who's who of people who mattered in 2011.

It's all sports journos and things dishing out hot takes. We're way too obsessed with America. Anyone who points this out gets the old 'THIS AFFECTS ALL OF US', well, no it doesn't.

I have watched zero coverage other than results maps and I stopped looking at them 24 hours ago as it was all over.

[Don]

This is Watergate for the Snapchat generation, man. Drink it in.

I'm all for no nonsense straight-talkin (lol) that broke the political mould and I love me a bit of good old fashioned misogyny and racism but they all saw the COVID pressers and 70m still voted for him :D He legitimately believes everything he says.

[mikem]

To the discussion of Trumpism after Trump:

TEXAS (97% in): Joe Biden has more votes in 2020 than Donald Trump got there in 2016.

Biden grew Clinton's TX vote from 3.88M to 5.22M (!).

But Trump grew his TX vote from 4.69M to 5.87M.

[mikem]

Florida too

Clinton got 4.5M and Biden has 5.3M; Trump has gone from 4.6M to 5.6M (with 96% in).

[Spoonsky]

Yeah the turnout across the board has been impressive. I wonder if it's because of mail voting or because it's the "election of our lifetimes".

[Don]

I'd imagine it's because your president isn't so much a political leader as he is a showman/promoter. The fact that turnout has been brought about against a carcass of a figure means even more credit has to go to Trump, he singel-handedly drew both sides in. Ain't no one driven to the polls by anything that came out of Biden's mouth (was locked up in his basement anyway from what I saw).

[Byron]

Yep, this has all been Trump. Democrats have been fired up to ensure they don't make the same mistake as 2016 and Republicans have been fired up to ensure there's no 'blue wave'

The fact that Biden spent 3 months hiding in his basement and still got more votes than any other candidate in American history says more about Trump's ability to energise the nation into voting, whichever way they vote. He must be fuming at Jo Jorgensen though, I reckon more of her votes would have broken Trump than Biden.

[Queenslander]

Preferential voting FTW

[Spoonsky]

1324566265994731525

GOP has become the party of protest all of a sudden. Remember all those lines in 2016 about how "we never protested when you won"?

[Lofty]

Isn't this huge turnout not just on Trump but wasn't there an expectation Clinton was going to piss it last time which was suspected to lower turnout?

Trump being anti-nonce is quite something, I'm sure he is going to investigate and expose all the billionaire mega nonces in the same way he made Mexico pay for that wall, that isn't a wall.

What's the nonce equivalent of not inhaling a joint? I touched that child's genitals but did not penetrate?

[Shindig]

"She was asking for it."

[Bernanke]

Diamond Joe ahead in Georgia now as well.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They really need him not to die if he can possibly help it, Kamala Harris would win about 4 states.

[Spikey M]

They really need him not to die if he can possibly help it

:D

[Ian]

Has the Tango Man come up with any more reasons why counting all the votes is undemocratic / unconstitutional / a total meanie poo-poo head thing to do?

[Disco]

Only the one, that he would lose.

[Ian]

I think it's a damning indictment of the Democrats and their collective lack of integrity that they've been trying to win this election the whole time.

[Yevrah]

The things he said last night were reasons as to why it's not a fair fight and they would have been valid reasons to back that up had any of them been true. Shame for him that they're not.

[phonics]

Much like the Clinton Crime Family fixing the election for Donald Trump to win. I'm not sure how they keep on comitting these massively fraudulent elections only to lose seats in the House and be a minority in the Senate.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The biggest weakness of his whole spiel over the last however many years is that he's Donald Trump - Donald Trump - trying to spin himself as some kind of underdog sticking it to the man, he IS the man. People (wrongly) make the same criticism of Farage, but Farage is just some jumped up accountant who puts on a show voice, so he has some right to do it. Donald Trump owns a fucking solid gold hotel in the middle of New York City.

Crooked Hillary kind of stuck as an attack line, but Sleepy Joe I think makes him sound more endearing if anything (I know Americans don't tend to think this way, but still).

[Kikó]

Here's a good website if you want to turn off CNN: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

America needs to try and reestablish some sort of functioning democracy after this. Trump did his best to demolish the safeguards but thankfully they were strong enough to stop the orange gibbon.

[Lewis]

It's a weird argument that. Either the structures were strong enough to withstand him, in which case there was nothing to worry about, or actually he never did anything to undermine them beyond talking a load of shit. He never [ab]used his powers more than previous presidents, but when he did everyone shit the bed.

The cure for every problem in America is states' rights; but people quite like forcing their opinions on everyone else so lol looks like the old slaveowners were onto something.

[Pepe]

"Reestablish a democracy." He was democratically elected. Just because things don't go your way does not mean that they are not working.

[Vercetti]

The best part of this whole thing is that Kamala might end up in power.

I thought the Undertaker killed him. What a comeback story.

[Disco]

I'm still rooting for a cabinet of Akeem the African Dream and Big Boss Man.

[mugbull]

I agree that the best solution for the US is splitting apart, though i guarantee the “heartland” would descend into third-world country status within a couple decades and desperately ask CA and NY for handouts once everybody starts dying of tuberculosis. So maybe it wouldn’t be the best for them

[Pepe]

https://www.cdc.gov/tb/statistics/default.htm

Lol.

[mugbull]

Good luck stemming the tide once all the good doctors leave for greener pastures.

[Disco]

Clearly they need to gas more badgers.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Biden now leading in Pennsylvania.

They might as well officially call it now.

[Kikó]

1324710866516905984?s=20

[Boydy]

1324524879253770241

[Bernanke]

Georgia having two run-offs in January for control of the senate is going to be mental. :|

[Lewis]

I agree that the best solution for the US is splitting apart, though i guarantee the “heartland” would descend into third-world country status within a couple decades and desperately ask CA and NY for handouts once everybody starts dying of tuberculosis. So maybe it wouldn’t be the best for them

London likes to tell itself this, as if the pinkos and Islamists wouldn't run it into the ground within ten minutes of having total control.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Has anyone ever written a convincing CSA survives counterfactual? All the ones I've seen have it dying within ten years (and it couldn't have won the war to begin with), but I don't know if that's just wishful thinking.

[mugbull]

London likes to tell itself this, as if the pinkos and Islamists wouldn't run it into the ground within ten minutes of having total control.

They wouldn't.

[mugbull]

Has anyone ever written a convincing CSA survives counterfactual? All the ones I've seen have it dying within ten years (and it couldn't have won the war to begin with), but I don't know if that's just wishful thinking.

The Confederacy would survive longer than that on cotton and tobacco exports to your country alone. Eventually they would fall apart though, mainly due to the fact that no one there had any idea how to organize an actual business or innovate in any way. The war they could've won in the same way guerrilla groups always win had they not suffered from their own inner states rights conflicts

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/vivo/live/images/2020/11/6/5de17bfc-5a08-4e8d-8aec-df02fdbd7a79.jpg

:drool:

[mikem]

The perception of this election is going to be so different than the reality of it:

Biden is going to win 306 Electoral College votes to 304 for Trump in 2016.

When provisional ballots are all counted, final margins are going to be sizable. Trump won 2016 from 75k votes in MI, PA, and WI. Biden will end up winning each of those by 150-250k.

D’s lost Hispanics!!!! Umm, they won them handily in CA, NV, AZ, NM .... well everywhere but Miami Dade County in Florida and Laredo is n Texas.

The polls will turn out to be in the margin of error everywhere but Florida and North Carolina .
And the brilliant politician Trump is going to manage to be only the 5th to lose a second term. The first to lose when his party didn’t lose down ballot. And the first to lose when Gallup’s simple “Are you better off than four years ago?” poll that they started 100 some years ago was over 50%. 60% say they were better off and he lost. He’s an abysmal politician in any category.

But the narrative will be: close, Hispanics go for R’s, polling doesn’t work, and he has great skill cause a small percent of people love him.

[Don]

Godbless Mike for that post, that's the sort of clear headed and informed analysis every one needs.

[Lewis]

Sounds to me like Trumpism succeeds in spite of Trump.

[John Arne]

News stations (well, Sky News) really are crap at explaining the actual data.

Tell me what the current vote count is, what is left to count, and what the trend of mail-in votes suggests will will happen to that data. Instead they throw to some blonde bint stood in the middle of the road in Washington telling that that people in Roosborough County are rioting.

[Jimmy Floyd]

British news channels don't have the resources to do data stuff, nor the audience to justify it (even for our elections they barely do it). They tend to go in on human drama or whatever. It's easy to underestimate the weight of pointless money there is floating around in the US compared to other countries.

[Don]

People are too thick to be receptive to 'data stuff'. It took me the best part of a decade to singel-handedly have xG up on MOTD and referred to by TV pundits and still I have to deal with the snide comments about my fetish for data and feet.

[mikem]

I think there is a Trump wing of the R party, a rural wing, and the Ryan / Chamber of Commerce wing. Republicans succeed (get universal control) when they can mobilize all three. They can win the Senate with one, and two can deliver the House but need all three for the Presidency or house. Question is if the Cottons, Hawleys, Cruz’s can pull in the Trump wing or do they just become non-voters.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is there another celebrity floating around who could ape his stardust/charisma? Any sort of career politicians would surely lose a whole heap of the Trumpets.

[Disco]

The Rock, but I'm assuming he would go for the other team.

[phonics]

Is there another celebrity floating around who could ape his stardust/charisma? Any sort of career politicians would surely lose a whole heap of the Trumpets.

No, because all the people who like Trump like Trump because he hates the same people they hate. Which all these other ones also do.

[mikem]

I don’t think Trumpism is successful even with Trump. You get about a 20-25% chance because you really energize 40% of the Republican base. So maybe you win by 75k votes over three states in a year the director of the FBI says he may have to investigate the opponent 10 days before the election. Outside of that people go “ooh look at the crowds.” But when do votes count more because you bought the merch?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/06/media/fox-news-election-projection-plan/index.html

Fox News, the cable channel that has been one of President Trump's most important supporters, has instructed its anchors not to call Joe Biden the "President-elect" when the network calls the race, according to two memos obtained by CNN Business.
The memos said that Fox should "stay away" from using the description, and instead say something Biden has "enough electoral votes to win the presidency."
The memos emphasized that the network should report moves by Trump's legal teams to challenge the results, despite legal analysts having dismissed potential challenges as having little to no merit.

:harold:

Fox are whipped.

[Ian]

I didn't even think Trump and Fox were that in love now. I thought he was all bout the North Korea-style OANN channel.

[Kikó]

News stations (well, Sky News) really are crap at explaining the actual data.

Tell me what the current vote count is, what is left to count, and what the trend of mail-in votes suggests will will happen to that data. Instead they throw to some blonde bint stood in the middle of the road in Washington telling that that people in Roosborough County are rioting.

Use this - https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

[Kikó]

The perception of this election is going to be so different than the reality of it:

Biden is going to win 306 Electoral College votes to 304 for Trump in 2016.

When provisional ballots are all counted, final margins are going to be sizable. Trump won 2016 from 75k votes in MI, PA, and WI. Biden will end up winning each of those by 150-250k.

D’s lost Hispanics!!!! Umm, they won them handily in CA, NV, AZ, NM .... well everywhere but Miami Dade County in Florida and Laredo is n Texas.

The polls will turn out to be in the margin of error everywhere but Florida and North Carolina .
And the brilliant politician Trump is going to manage to be only the 5th to lose a second term. The first to lose when his party didn’t lose down ballot. And the first to lose when Gallup’s simple “Are you better off than four years ago?” poll that they started 100 some years ago was over 50%. 60% say they were better off and he lost. He’s an abysmal politician in any category.

But the narrative will be: close, Hispanics go for R’s, polling doesn’t work, and he has great skill cause a small percent of people love him.
:beer:

[phonics]

I've purpousely avoided 99% of coverage because I couldn't take it but knowing Trump is watching every single second of this on on four different TVs is all I need.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?

[Disco]

That's the bit I don't get, there's more people protesting outside than there are counting, get a bunch of lads in and knock the rest out in an afternoon.

[Yevrah]

Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?

It is utterly ridiculous. There's one state with something like 4,000 ballots on hand to count and they bothered to announce that when one person could have just counted them in an hour or two.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Is there any danger of them actually declaring a result that was done easily 48 hours ago? How can they count 90% in a couple of hours and then 2% a day for the next week?

Some states were able to count the mail in votes 2 weeks before but a lot weren't which is why they have a huge backlog now and why it's taking so long.

Some of those mail ins can be counted by a machine, others can't, some are able to count 24/7, some aren't etc etc.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Some states seem to have a lot more red tape too.

Basically most states were seriously underprepared to deal with the obvious surge in mail in votes compared to previous elections.

[Pepe]

Without the virus, how comfortably would Trump have won?

[Lewis]

I think he would have won about ninety per cent of the vote, and it would only be that low because of the voter fraud.

[Pepe]

Sounds about right.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Surely he's won about 90% of the LEGAL votes right now?

[Spoonsky]

Without the virus, how comfortably would Trump have won?

*if he had handled the virus with even a single degree of competence

[Giggles]

What’s the story now? Is it near over yet?

[Shindig]

Pennsylvania reckon they might be finished tonight. If that turns Blue, Biden's in. Georgia's doing a recount.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The very few world leaders who handle the pandemic well will clean up at an election, as seen in NZ.

To be fair to whoever is President of the US, I don't think it would even theoretically be possible to contain it there, the place is an absolute zoo.

[Shindig]

Yeah, it's long gone. They let it loose for the best part of six months and it's only the likes of Hawaii, Alaska and New York have managed to contain it.

[niko_cee]

I don’t think Trumpism is successful even with Trump. You get about a 20-25% chance because you really energize 40% of the Republican base. So maybe you win by 75k votes over three states in a year the director of the FBI says he may have to investigate the opponent 10 days before the election. Outside of that people go “ooh look at the crowds.” But when do votes count more because you bought the merch?

Mate, your stiff's getting in. No need for this level of [retrospective] seethe.

[niko_cee]

The very few world leaders who handle the pandemic well will clean up at an election, as seen in NZ.


Our one [although not a world leader obviously] won the popular vote to get back in and has subsequently been unceremoniously dumped from all positions of actual power by underhanded internal deals by his rivals.

But then, politicians are only really as good as their science guys/geographical good fortune.

[mikem]

Just as much seethe toward my own side. The next two years will be:

McConnell passes stimulus during the lame duck then bottles things up in the Senate.

Democrats whine and complain and yammer about changing the Electoral College and packing the Court and structural reform when they know they need 60 seats.

Then in a couple cycles when R’s win again they will complain that African Americans only 85-15 in their favor and Hispanics 65-35. When outreach was just “hey black person - prison bad - you are all in prison right?” There hasn’t been any rural outreach of any kind but “hmm why do you vote against your interests?” Since the 80’s.

Nothing much will pass and we’ll do this all again in 4-8 years. All because Trump is the only person worse than. Democrats at politics.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is there any danger of anyone having the balls to call any of these states that Biden won easily three days ago?

[mugbull]

Usually you're pretty insightful but i completely disagree with your characterization of Trump. He's phenomenal at politics. He got elected despite the entire party machinery being against him throughout the primaries simply because he connected with voters in a way that someone like John Kasich never could. He single-handedly changed the ideological platform of the party. He's not good in the traditional *bipartisan* sense, but he's amazing in the way that he's constructed politics. And he only lost this time round because of Corona; as others have mentioned you'll see incumbents lose worldwide due to that.

[randomlegend]

Usually you're pretty insightful but i completely disagree with your characterization of Trump. He's phenomenal at politics. He got elected despite the entire party machinery being against him throughout the primaries simply because he connected with voters in a way that someone like John Kasich never could. He single-handedly changed the ideological platform of the party. He's not good in the traditional *bipartisan* sense, but he's amazing in the way that he's constructed politics. And he only lost this time round because of Corona; as others have mentioned you'll see incumbents lose worldwide due to that.

This is bollocks. He just IS an idiot, racist, boomer so idiots, racists and boomers have voted for him. Unfortunately that accounts for half the people in the US OF A.

[mugbull]

This is bollocks. He just IS an idiot, racist, boomer so idiots, racists and boomers have voted for him. Unfortunately that accounts for half the people in the US OF A.

I don't think you understand. Being good at politics is being good at winning. I wish it was about coalition building etc but fundamentally it's not.

[randomlegend]

That's like saying someone is PHENOMONAL at wearing a XXXL t-shirt because they are fat.

[Don]

If Trump was doing it all knowingly he would definitley be a genius. As it is, he's simply fluked greatness thanks to the way society has developed.