U.S. Presidential Election 2016 (Sponsored by Betty Croker's Hamburger Helper)

[Raoul Duke]

The Lehman Brothers are still around/donating to politicians? :cab:

[Pepe]

Good.

686321717472542721

That's throughout their careers isn't it? Not for the current campaign.

[Pepe]

No Rand Paul on Thursday's debate is making me really doubt whether I should bother.

[Boydy]

That's throughout their careers isn't it? Not for the current campaign.
I don't actually know. That would make sense though given Lehman Brothers is in there as pointed out by RD.

[Davgooner]

She was heckling and abusing the people near her. Pretty standard, typical mainstream media misinformation.

That's tosh. She actually said the people immediately around her were perfectly nice to her until the wider audience started getting involved.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Trump's not even a factor. Rubio should piss it from here unless they have all lost their minds, although this being America they probably have.

God I hope Hillary finds some way to lose, whether to 'Bernie' or later on. What an awful cow.

[John Arne]

Of course he is a factor. He is leading in the polls and the bookies have him favourites.

He hasn't got a chance in the GE, but he has a realistic chance of the GOP nomination.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What polls is he leading in? Are they measuring anything to do with the actual elections at hand? He'll get munched in the actual contests.

[Pepe]

I am with Jimmy on this one, on almost everything. I rather have 'Hillary' win rather than fucking Marco 'Marco Rubio' Rubio. If Bernie dons her though. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Just checked the odds. Rubio hovering at 2/1 for the nomination with many. Choo choo. Or just sell the fuck out of Trump.

[Pepe]

Polls have to be the worst thing that ever happened to politics.

[Davgooner]

The GOP are in the process of turning on Rubio because he wore some high heeled shoes.

[John Arne]

Just checked the odds. Rubio hovering at 2/1 for the nomination with many. Choo choo. Or just sell the fuck out of Trump.

2/1, second favourite behind the clown.

[mugbull]

Trump's not even a factor.

:D

Trump will most likely win. Unfortunately, if he doesn't, we're gonna end up with Ted Cruz. Rubio is fine but he's not nearly popular enough to win.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've seen more of these than you, he has no chance. His polling numbers are just noise.

Ted Cruz might win.

[Lewis]

The GOP are in the process of turning on Rubio because he wore some high heeled shoes.

Serves him right. Did you see the state of them?

[mugbull]

I've seen more of these than you, he has no chance. His polling numbers are just noise.

Ted Cruz might win.

What are you talking about? Why would he not win?

[Jimmy Floyd]

What are you talking about? Why would he not win?

Because he hasn't got a proper election machine setup, he's just a bloke who wanders around talking shit and attracts legions of zealous followers, but those aren't votes in an election and the way his polling numbers go across different types of poll (even if high) reflects that. Cruz will win Iowa, probably easily, and Rubio will win Noo Hampshire.

[John Arne]

But nobody like Trump has run before, so the fact that you have seen all of this before, is largely irrelevant.

Don't forget, this is the American general public we are talking about.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you say so. I reckon loads of people like him (no hoper idiots) have run before, they just haven't had as much money or shouted quite so loudly about themselves.

[John Arne]

I do say so.

[Pepe]

Bloody hell this is boring.

[Davgooner]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i-9D92bzu8

[Bartholomert]

Because he hasn't got a proper election machine setup, he's just a bloke who wanders around talking shit and attracts legions of zealous followers, but those aren't votes in an election and the way his polling numbers go across different types of poll (even if high) reflects that. Cruz will win Iowa, probably easily, and Rubio will win Noo Hampshire.

You're a complete idiot who has no idea what he's talking about, Trump's ground game is as good as anyones. You are just mindlessly repeating the talking points of an increasingly desperate mainstream media / establishment.

Trump is the clear favorite, all polling numbers indicate this, and he beats Hillary head to head in the general. The People have woken up, and they are fed up with the lies of the self-interested elites. Get used to the idea of President Trump.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm backing me tbh.

[Pepe]

You're a complete idiot who has no idea what he's talking about, Trump's ground game is as good as anyones. You are just mindlessly repeating the talking points of an increasingly desperate mainstream media / establishment.

Trump is the clear favorite, all polling numbers indicate this, and he beats Hillary head to head in the general. The People have woken up, and they are fed up with the lies of the self-interested elites. Get used to the idea of President Trump.

How does a so called right wing free market lover like you reconciles with the idea of imposing tariffs on foreign goods?

[Henry]

"Right wingers" only want to apply the free market to the poor. For their buddies at the top it's subsidies and government contracts all the way.

[GS]

And the left?

I disagree with your assessment, obviously.

[Henry]

The left don't claim to want a free market in the first place.

And obviously there are honest right -wingers, which is why I used the quotation marks. They're just not generally the ones in power.

[Bernanke]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPRfP_TEQ-g

This is fucking amazing. :D It's like a SNL skit.

Scary and catchy. http://i.imgur.com/ZaJNL.gif

[John]

Mert's looking increasingly like Sebo in the 'IndyRef' where Trump is concerned. He'll either be monumentally correct or laughed off the board.

[John Arne]

Always worth a reread...

http://thedugout.net/community/showthread.php?p=4168506

[GS]

With the current oil prices, Scotland would be bankrupt by independence day. He should consider himself lucky.

[Disco]

And people say he isn't a joke.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-ill-make-apple-build-in-the-us-2016-1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Some of my best ever posts were wasted on those fucking caber tossing plebs. I want my time back.

[Toby]

The Scottish economy is growing despite the drop in oil prices. GDP is still comparable to the rest of the UK as a whole and it's still the third most productive region after London and the South East.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Falling oil prices are well known to push up demand for smoked salmon.

[Toby]

don't forget the heroin lol

[phonics]

689462446642241537

[GS]

The Scottish economy is growing despite the drop in oil prices. GDP is still comparable to the rest of the UK as a whole and it's still the third most productive region after London and the South East.

Scottish budgets post-independence were predicated on the basis of high production and prices of $120 a barrel. There would have been a massive gap owing to the price decrease and the massive reduction in oil production in the North Sea as producers can't compete at current global prices. The lifting of Iranian sanctions lets them flood the market as well now, which should drive prices down further - which is good for all of us who want cheaper petrol.

[Lewis]

Being the 'third most productive region after London and the South East' is like being the best white sprinter.

[Raoul Duke]

How much of the 'No' vote was predicated on a sustainable, consistent oil price?

[phonics]

689622097765756928

Ooooo kill 'em.

[Lewis]

I wondered where that quote had come from (I saw 'Milo' and friends chimping out over it).

[ItalAussie]

Diving into the "alt-right"/neoreactionary movement is an amazing way to kill a couple of hours. Especially the really central elements, like the Moldbug stuff.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Neoreactionary_movement

It's all utterly fantastical. The "Dark Enlightenment". :D

[Davgooner]

I see Palin has given up her YouTube career and is backing the Trump. She mostly wanked on about supporting the troops and 'kicking ISIS's ass!'. We hear that a lot from all the Republican candidates, although what specifically they'd do differently from what Obama has done is not clear.

[Byron]

Diving into the "alt-right"/neoreactionary movement is an amazing way to kill a couple of hours. Especially the really central elements, like the Moldbug stuff.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Neoreactionary_movement

It's all utterly fantastical. The "Dark Enlightenment". :D

So we're saying that Moldbug is a combination of Mert's verbose writing and Harold's inability to comprehend am opposing point of view?

[Davgooner]

'Many are former Ron Paul supporters'

:D

[ItalAussie]

From what I can tell, there's a big push for the idea that there should be an aristocracy, and it should be them by virtue of their enlightenment.

I know this sounds hard to believe, but I actually think both Mert and Harry would be too sensible to fit in as part of the movement.

[Bernanke]

"The movement has a proud history of great achievements, such as lengthy blog posts, even longer blog posts, and, occasionally, tweets."

:D

[Henry]

I'd forgotten how good RationalWiki is.

[Spoonsky]

Trump's not even a factor. Rubio should piss it from here unless they have all lost their minds, although this being America they probably have.

God I hope Hillary finds some way to lose, whether to 'Bernie' or later on. What an awful cow.


I've seen more of these than you, he has no chance. His polling numbers are just noise.

Ted Cruz might win.


Because he hasn't got a proper election machine setup, he's just a bloke who wanders around talking shit and attracts legions of zealous followers, but those aren't votes in an election and the way his polling numbers go across different types of poll (even if high) reflects that. Cruz will win Iowa, probably easily, and Rubio will win Noo Hampshire.

I've done a lot of phone-banking for Bernie Sanders over the past few weeks, calling in to Iowa primarily, and I can tell you that you're wrong. I've talked to more Trump supporters than supporters of the rest of the Republican candidates combined (which is not that many, of either, based on how the phoning works). Whether or not it's sustainable is hard to tell, but it's very real. I think you perhaps underestimate just how much coverage he has gotten on TV for months and months here.

An interesting sidenote is that the Trump supporters invariably sound more enthusiastic, more zealous but also more optimistic, than anybody else.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If I'm wrong about that I'll be right that he gets dicked to nigh on zero college votes in the run-off against Hillary.

[Lewis]

Jesus mate. Get a games console or something.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Matt Santos won the White House starting with just Spoonsky and a couple of shit women in the back of a garage somewhere. He could be Chief of Staff within a year.

[Disco]

Hurricane Santos. :cool:

[Spoonsky]

I really think Bernie could win the lot. He'll win New Hampshire for sure and I have a gut feeling about Iowa. After that shit could get crazy a la 2008. On the other hand I basically have to be optimistic to do the phone-banking, so I'm probably not a great judge.

I agree with you, Floyd, that Rubio is the obvious candidate to win the general election and that he should be pissing it, and most of my liberal friends agree with that, but it's just not happening. Which is great news for the Democrats tbh, he's the one person that would beat either Clinton or Sanders.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He'll get mugged off in the south on Super Toosday. Poor Bernie.

I haven't reminded myself of the electoral college distribution since the last one, but I reckon Trump is such a god awful candidate that he could either lose every state, or come very close to doing so. I think Bernie would thrash him as well, though not by quite as much.

[Boydy]

I will piss myself with laughter and shit myself with glee if Sanders beats Clinton.

[Spoonsky]

Bernie thrashes him by far more than Hillary does. It makes sense, really, the people who support Trump will all necessarily hate Clinton but that won't be the case for Sanders.

Trump is nailed on to win New Hampshire. He's neck-and-neck with Cruz in Iowa. I think you're grappling with what we in America were all grappling with in the summer, which is that Trump is a god awful candidate yet he's completely dominant and nothing he does or says can change that. He's tapped into a particular strain of American thought (or lack thereof) more spectacularly than probably anyone else in the last fifty years. It's fascinating, especially when I've talked with real people that support him.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Dominant among shouty cunts a year out. Fortunately they don't do all the voting.

If he won it would be approaching military coup time. They'd have to have him killed by the Cubans or something.

[Spoonsky]

Him winning the nomination used to be unthinkable to me (hence my worrying bet with Mert). It's not anymore. Him winning the general still is, but that could well change too.

This thread missed something important too:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mvlm3LKSlpU

[Lewis]

I liked that advert-cum-folk music video 'Bernie' put out, so I may as well get on board since my priorities went 1) Rand Paul; 2) anyone but 'Hillary'. On the other hand, it's tempting to set myself up to revel in an entire generation having its faith in politics shattered when he can't get anything done. Decisions.

[Pepe]

With Club Lewis's endorsement we're winning Iowa for sure!

[Spoonsky]

Just got my third Trump supporter of the day.

[Lewis]

With Club Lewis's endorsement we're winning Iowa for sure!

Do you reckon Chinny's project was helping Donald Trump in Iowa?

[Pepe]

Is Chinny Sarah Palin?

[Queenslander]

Ted Cruz told a whopper lie about sexual assaults going up after Port Arthur.

So many blatant lies being spread about Australia from the pro gun people.

[mugbull]

The thing is, the youth never shows up to polling places. In every election ever, the youth vote has been overrepresented in polls when compared to the actual turnout, so if Sanders is neck and neck in Iowa now, he will lose come caucus.

[ItalAussie]

Ted Cruz told a whopper lie about sexual assaults going up after Port Arthur.

So many blatant lies being spread about Australia from the pro gun people.

They have to tell stories about Australia. It's that or acknowledge actual evidence that actually happened. The gun lobby need to explain us away somehow.

[Queenslander]

Yeah fair enough I suppose.

[Bernanke]

Iowa attack-ad on Bernie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XsWkwakVlA

Really nails it.

[Henry]

Is that an actual attack ad or a parody or what? I'm unclear.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't know what point it's trying to make in either case.

[Spoonsky]

The organization seems to be real. http://esafund.com/

It's quite bizarre, but then this is a campaign where even the most boring candidate in the race has given us this, so who knows:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC6H-8hktFE

[Pepe]

The US of A :******)

[Disco]

Natural Law Party aside that is so far above and beyond the kind of stuff we see here. I mean I'd rather have a vaguely functional political system but you can't deny how great that is.

[Toby]

It surprises me that American political ads always seem so low budget and poorly produced. I don't think it's just the retro font that makes that Rubio attack look like you should be watching it on a tinny CRT with a clothes hanger for an aerial.

Is it just because they do loads of them whereas in Britain they're only occasional and only to a national audience?

[Pepe]

Those are done by third parties, no?

[Disco]

Is their telly still a different resolution or am I stuck in the 90's?

[Disco]

It surprises me that American political ads always seem so low budget and poorly produced. I don't think it's just the retro font that makes that Rubio attack look like you should be watching it on a tinny CRT with a clothes hanger for an aerial.

Is it just because they do loads of them whereas in Britain they're only occasional and only to a national audience?

Could it be that they spend the big money on buying air time rather than on production?

[ItalAussie]

Someone told me that American voters prefer their advertisements to "feel" local, rather than stage-managed and national.

Because the USA is so huge, they take their regional identities very seriously.

[Spoonsky]

Not always true.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nwRiuh1Cug

:cool:

[Lewis]

His America looks like your family barbecue.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I might officially endorse Bernie at this point. Go Bernie.

[Davgooner]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-says-he-wont-participate-in-gop-debate-on-fox-news/2016/01/26/58fa0b2e-c490-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html

What a gimp.

[Magic]

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e85_1453854316

:D

But at the same time, :|

[Pepe]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-says-he-wont-participate-in-gop-debate-on-fox-news/2016/01/26/58fa0b2e-c490-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html

What a gimp.

'Doing a Rand.'

[phonics]

692663480424361984
692663480436928512

[Shindig]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cA0NM5RAY0

The real Dennis the Menace.

[Spoonsky]

Clinton and Sanders have agreed in principle to four additional debates. Props to her, I never thought that would happen. It's still up to the DNC to approve it, though, and shit could hit the fan if they don't.

Talked to a guy yesterday who complained about all the illegal immigrants from "North Africa and southwest Asia." Maybe the call went to Budapest by mistake.

[Spoonsky]

It all kicks off today. Finally. I think Trump will win for the Republicans and it's a toss-up for the Democrats.

[Pepe]

Bernie will don it. Still don't think Trump will win but it is blind faith talking at this point.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm sticking with Not Trump as well.

[Lewis]

I saw Rand Paul giving it the big'un that he was fourth in Iowa, but first with young voters. So fourth, mate.

[GS]

60% of Americans view Trump unfavourably. He's also only got a plurality of the Republican vote, so most of those nutters aren't voting for him.

It depends how voting goes with Cruz, I think. If you could position Rubio as the alternative, you'd have a strong anti Trump candidate (even if the nutters think he's some sort of traitor over immigration). Anyone sensible can see that Cruz is a genuine nutter and unashamedly so.

As it stands though, the not Trump vote is split so he might just barge his way through.

[Spoonsky]

GS is accurate there with his last sentence especially.

I'm actually surprised that Rand Paul is in 4th in Iowa, I thought he was doing much worse. That puts him above political titans like Ben Carson and Jeb Bush.

[Lewis]

'The Donald' getting in on the back of Michael Bloomberg hoovering up the 'moderates' would be the best (worst) thing ever.

[Pepe]

I was going to :cool: Rand but then I realized I probably don't count as a young voter anymore. :(

EDIT: Just remembered I don't count as a voter at all.

[ItalAussie]

As it stands though, the not Trump vote is split so he might just barge his way through.
Preferential voting: avoiding split-vote misrepresentation since 1871.

[ItalAussie]

Apparently anyone can just register and vote in the caucuses? I'm really shocked that there aren't more people signing up for the other party and trying to vote in the least electable candidate. Especially in elections when there's an incumbent President (so, not this one) and hence no real point to the caucus for one entire side of the political divide.

[Pepe]

That would require them to be arsed, I think I read that only 1 in 6 vote in primaries.

[Spoonsky]

These are helpful. It's squeaky bum time for Bernie and Hillary (and let that sentence never be repeated again).

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

[Spoonsky]

Cruz has won it, with Rubio currently very close third to Donald Trump. Calling it now, Rubio wins their nomination. It'll be really interesting to see how Trump fares now that he can't cite WINNING all the time.

[ItalAussie]

Cruz taking Iowa is terrible news for Trump, and really opens it up for Rubio once the race moves into more favourable territory for him.

Other stray observations:
Republicans: Jim Gilmore beaten by "Other", 0.1% to 0.0%. Huckabee's officially out of the race.
Democrats: 0.1% of the vote going to "Uncommitted". There's a snowstorm there, and someone trudged to a caucus office to officially record their shrug of indecision.

If Trump loses the nomination, he's going to have a fantastic meltdown at the end of it, surely? He can't possibly go quietly.

EDIT: Oddschecker has Trump blowing out from 1.33 to 2.75, with Rubio firming to 2. Rubio's the only candidate they have who could actually challenge at the general, you'd think. So possibly good news for the Republicans, although as long as Trump doesn't win, everyone wins in a way.

[QE Harold Flair]

Not me, I'd love to see Trump win.

[ItalAussie]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--lPkNZ4j01c/UQXAMNSMO9I/AAAAAAAAPaE/4MlnJdNp6Fo/s1600/some+people+just+like+to+watch+the+world+burn.jpg

[Pepe]

Rubio is a disgusting little weasel, much rather see Trump win.

[QE Harold Flair]

That appears to be a house on fire with a young girl at the forefront of the picture. Also present is a fire engine and a fireman in uniform.

[mugbull]

Down to 10 votes :D

Out of 1300, to be fair. But damn.

[mugbull]

Oh wait, that's not actually votes. NYT doing a shit job of explaining their graphics. TTH could do better, we could spiff up a poster

[Spoonsky]

Bernie was up to 0.2 away, then back to 0.7 away, now back up to 0.2. Only 7% left to count but it feels like it could take hours.

Martin O'Malley has dropped out. He did a great job as Bernie's wingman for a few months there.

[GS]

Mike Huckabee won Iowa before - it's a conservative state where you'd expect Cruz to do well. It's quite damaging for Trump in the sense it ruins his narrative and his "momentum", but it's not a huge surprise. Looking at the figures, it seems that a lot of them have decided to swing to Rubio at the end, possibly on the grounds of wider electability. I think that's the 'story' here - it gives Rubio huge momentum, but the immigration issue might shaft him with the whites.

Sanders and Clinton being in a virtual tie is a right laugh, however. Sanders seems a top lad, but SOCIALISM in America is ANTI FREEDOM, so fuck knows. I assume Clinton solidifies the vote in coming states and pulls away, simply because she has far more money and establishment support.

How does it work for both parties here in terms of delegate distribution? Winner takes all or proportional split?

[Bernanke]

In Iowa it's proportional. Cruz got 7, with Rubio and Trump getting 6.

[Raoul Duke]

Lulz: www.loser.com

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lolololol. Like I said, not even a factor.

[Toby]

Imagine Ted Cruz as President though. He's the least 'presidential' looking person I've ever seen. He just seems so awkward, to the extent he comes across as really quite creepy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rubio is the only one with a cat in hell's chance of beating Hillary, so that isn't a concern.

[phonics]

An evangelical has won Iowa then got smashed in NH the last two times. We're not out of Trump Towers yet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Oh Cruz won't win the nomination. Rubio will piss it.

[Queenslander]

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/hphotos-xpf1/v/t59.2708-21/12531938_10110122360315674_1381426449_n.gif?oh=bc5 593acb035aeb8d2a6eacc1b3275d3&oe=56B2D86F

[Toby]

It's even worse with sound.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gplpSfaouP8

[Queenslander]

Farking hell.

[Pepe]

All in all it's looking good for Sanders I guess, or at least much better than anticipated.

A Clinton-Rubio 'race' would be absolutely disgusting. Two lying, flip-floping, war-mongering wankers going at each other. Might just pack my bags and leave.

[Henry]

I don't know much about Rubio but Cruz is every bit as crazy as Trump. He's just less shouty about it.

Also, why is this so damaging to Trump exactly? I mean, it's a setback, but why does it double his odds?

Sanders in a dead-heat with Clinton despite all of the advantages she has. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Because it shows the polls are fiction and that Rubio in particular is a lot stronger on the ground.

[Henry]

I see. What were the polls in Iowa predicting?

[Disco]

Trump also needs momentum, his act doesn't work from second place.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I see. What were the polls in Iowa predicting?

The final poll had Trump on 32, Cruz 11 and Rubio 10 or some wank.

[Henry]

Hmmm.

So, supposedly Cruz got his votes mostly from the rural, Christian fundamentalist parts of Iowa, whereas Trump picked his up in the urban areas.
Bush received 5,000 votes, and based on his spending in the state, each one cost him $3,000. :lol:

Sanders got overwhelming majorities among both young people and low income people, whereas Clinton got her votes from the better off and older crowd.

[Toby]

Nate Silver and co had an interesting bit on Iowa being very difficult to predict and the pre-caucus polls not meaning much. Their website appears to be down now that I went looking for the link, but they said the margin of error is about 8 points and even then nobody's sure.

[Boydy]

https://www.facebook.com/NewStatesman/posts/10153929536609645



Many Corbynites find themselves supporting a candidate whose career bears little resemblance to Corbyn’s, who would run fast from the Labour leader’s foreign policy, and to whom comparisons on domestic policy are at best muddled.

Sanders’ cheerleaders on the British left are going to have to come up with a better reason to support him than the notion that he’s like Corbyn, because at the moment the most striking parallel is that they’ve opted for the white man over the woman once again.

What a load of shit.

What an awful fucking rag the NS has become these days.

[Henry]

Yeah, that's a crock of shit, although it is true that Sanders isn't nearly as much of a lefty as Corbyn. On what basis he calls himself a socialist I'm not sure. Being for single-payer healthcare and some more taxes on the rich hardly qualifies him.

[Pepe]

It is still the US, of course he is not as much of a lefty.

[Bernanke]

Following the clip of him trying to hug his daughter, here is Ted Cruz's father regretting getting his wife pregnant:

http://i.imgur.com/YCG7xJJ.jpg

He's hated by pretty much everybody.

[phonics]

Rand Paul down.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Oddly I reckon this campaign would have seen Ron Paul right in the mix, if he were ten years younger. The right's Bernie.

[QE Harold Flair]

Rand Paul down.

Why, what's he done to you?

[Pepe]

Rand Paul down.

:cry:

The only tolerable thing in any of the Republican debates. The clown show full in control.

[QE Harold Flair]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdCYMvaUcrA

:harold:

[Spoonsky]

I read that Jeb Bush and his campaign paid $3,000 for every vote they got in Iowa. It's really time to pull the plug and go all-in on Rubio.

[Henry]

Jesus, that's painful. Why is he still in it?

[Lewis]

He ('Jeb') strikes me as being too nice and/or not mental enough for this lark.

[John]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/03/donald-trump-ted-cruz-stole-iowa-caucuses-new-election

:harold:

[Spoonsky]

He ('Jeb') strikes me as being too nice and/or not mental enough for this lark.

Too nice or too soft, depending on how you view it.

[Pepe]

Too nice.

[Lewis]

Both. Everybody George W. Bush has met since leaving the job seems to agree that he's the nicest man ever, but he cleverly surrounded himself with absolute shits.

[Pepe]

Jeb is my #4 favorite, behind Bernie, Rand, and O'Malley. Things are looking grim.

[Lewis]

Also, 'Please clap' is quite good humour, and would probably be well-receieved here. In America they've already painted his face on something for a monster truck to crush.

[phonics]

Also, 'Please clap' is quite good humour, and would probably be well-receieved here. In America they've already painted his face on something for a monster truck to crush.

I saw one person describe it as supplanting Hemingway's six-word story as the shortest, saddest story ever told.

Calm down. Good joke though.

[phonics]

http://trumpdonald.org/

[Lewis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePxJJb7vSSg

Oof.

[Spoonsky]

I'm watching this live and Rubio is getting slaughtered. It's amazing. He just said that same Obama spiel for a fourth time and people started booing.

Christie went full Jersey on him.

[Pepe]

That was one of the biggest donnage you'll see. Better than Maury, this.

Edit: Or at least it was until the foreign policy talk started yet again. The only shit they ever talk about.

[Lewis]

Chris Christie would be a crap President in many ways, but he's fat and he likes mouthing off, so he could also be brilliant. You could imagine the wankers in the Foreign Office thinking they've got him sussed, only for him to lay one of them out because he thought they were tryna' be funny.

[Pepe]

He would be great. The jokes write themselves.

[Pepe]

Enhanced interrogation. :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is waterboarding an actual respectable debate topic in America?

What a shit country.

[Spoonsky]

Rubio recovered slightly with a nice answer on foreign policy. Now it's just boring.

[Spoonsky]

Jeb's having a good night as well. Interesting debate as far as the chess match goes. Trump will win N.H. by a landslide.

[Pepe]

Is this the first one you watch? They've all been the exact same shit. Bored as fuck now.

[Spoonsky]

I've watched most of them, and I finally understand why Jersey Shore was popular.

[Pepe]

I just miss Rand tbf.

[Spoonsky]

http://gawker.com/republican-candidates-cant-even-get-walking-to-their-de-1757564618

:rosebud:

[niko_cee]

That's amazing.

:D

[simon]

http://gawker.com/republican-candidates-cant-even-get-walking-to-their-de-1757564618

:rosebud:

:D

Made my day.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Just seen Chris Christie donning Rubio, what a guy.

[GS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePxJJb7vSSg

Oof.

That was quite an effective demolition there.

[Toby]

http://gawker.com/republican-candidates-cant-even-get-walking-to-their-de-1757564618

:rosebud:

http://i.imgur.com/pGv2MJr.gifv

[John Arne]

Jesus.... it's all so embarrassing. "Obama is trying to change America!".... "We will be the greatest country in the world eva!!11!!!!!"

Grow the fuck up.

[Lewis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn4tP7ogWIA

[phonics]

Exit Polls are saying Trump / Sanders have smashed it with Kasich taking 2nd in the Republican primary. Could be a miserable couple of weeks for Hils.

[Spoonsky]

They've called it for Trump and Sanders already, despite only 10% of the vote reported. That seems a little strange to me. The big interest is in the rest of the Republican race, early signs suggest that Rubio could be imploding.

[mugbull]

Bush in 3rd place. Campaign revival maybe? He still has more endorsements than any of them

[phonics]

Senator Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton among nearly every demographic group in the Democratic New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.


He carried majorities of both men and women. He won among those with and without college degrees. He won among gun owners and non-gun owners. He beat Mrs. Clinton among previous primary voters and those participating for the first time. And he ran ahead among both moderates and liberals.


Even so, there were a few silver linings for Mrs. Clinton. While Mr. Sanders bested her among all age groups younger than 45, the two candidates polled evenly among voters aged 45 to 64. And Mrs. Clinton won the support of voters 65 and older. And, though Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every income group, she did carry voters in families earning over $200,000 per year.


Ouch

[Toby]

Has he won more convincingly than expected?

FiveThirtyEight had him as >99% on to win, so I'm unclear on whether there's actually been an upset at all.

[Spoonsky]

It's not an upset within the context of the past month or so, in a wider context it's a definite upset. But the more notable thing is the margin of victory and over the past fortnight that was always how it was going to be.

Kasich in second is very interesting. He's by far the most decent Republican. Toss-up for third at the moment and if Rubio goes to fifth, especially with Bush in third, it would be a pretty yuge blow for him.

[Pepe]

Kasich skipped parading in Iowa and went balls deep into New Hampshire instead. Seems to have paid off.

I also saw an article a few days ago claiming Bush still had a pretty solid chance. Maybe the writer was unto something.

[Spoonsky]

Kasich just had a really nice speech there. Rubio takes responsibility for finishing fifth(!); that Christie moment at the debate will go down in history as the death of his campaign I think.

[Pepe]

Kasich just had a really nice speech there. Rubio takes responsibility for finishing fifth(!); that Christie moment at the debate will go down in history as the death of his campaign I think.

:yn:

What a disgusting weasel he is.

[Henry]

Has he won more convincingly than expected?

FiveThirtyEight had him as >99% on to win, so I'm unclear on whether there's actually been an upset at all.

I've been trying to find out the same thing this morning, but no-one I've checked is reporting on it, which is disappointing.
It really is a key question, because to date the situation seems to be that while Sanders has some momentum and may win among young white voters, his national performance won't be as strong as Clinton. If the NH performance amongst the groups he has struggled with is improving then he could be a real contender.

[Jimmy Floyd]

When's sooper toosday? If it ends up looking Clintony and Trumpy after that, she can basically start appointing her White House top team.

[Lewis]

I've read a few things about 'Bernie' failing to win over the ethnics. Other than the Black Folks and Catholics being wary of his gay-loving Godlessness, wouldn't he be far better for them than the rest of the stiffs?

'We are not a monolith!'

[Jimmy Floyd]

Also, is there any system of anything in the entire universe more complicated than the allocation of delegates from the results of Republican primaries? I literally have a degree in this stuff, but I can't make head nor tail of it.

[Pepe]

I've read a few things about 'Bernie' failing to win over the ethnics. Other than the Black Folks and Catholics being wary of his gay-loving Godlessness, wouldn't he be far better for them than the rest of the stiffs?

'We are not a monolith!'

Yes but they are stupid. When I was at my mum's during Christmas I told both her and my sister that they will vote Bernie. My mother didn't even know who he is (she only knew Clinton, Trump, Bush and Rubio, who she thought is a democrat) and when my missus mentioned that he is a socialist she immediately chimped out (in her mind socialist = Chavez and Castro.) This is a woman earning minimum wage and that has never had medical insurance in the 10+ years she's been living here.

[Toby]

I told both her and my sister that they will vote Bernie.

Patriarchy!

[Pepe]

I only do what's best for them. :lewis:

[mikem]

The African-American community is not a monolith either. Currently, there is a political power struggle between the old churches / activists and the new BLM / Tenahasi Coates crowd. The former derive their power from the Democratic Party's patronage and funding. Bernie, not being a Democrat can't and will never have access to it. They are going for Clinton.

The BLM crowd define the issues they face as simple as white supremacy (not the KKK but just that people normally play with their own kind). For the first time in their lives they have seen their own voices have an impact in places like Missouri while anyone working in the system just gets shut down like Obama or is a leech like Sharpton. We are back to the 60's. Bernie walks in whitesplaining that they don't even understand the problems or causes in their community. It doesn't play well. No clue if they will even take part.

[Pepe]

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/10/466252880/new-hampshire-primary-5-things-that-explain-the-results?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160210


The Clinton campaign was trying to stop the hemorrhage of female voters — especially young women — from its camp in the closing days. Campaigning with Clinton on Saturday, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright thundered, "There's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other!" — a phrase she's used before, but one that was specifically targeted at younger female voters who were wooed by Sanders. Feminist leader Gloria Steinem also stirred controversy when she suggested last week that younger women were supporting Sanders just so they could meet boys.

:face:


It turns out the Clinton campaign's fears were right. According to exit polls, women made up 55 percent of the New Hampshire electorate — and they favored Sanders by 11 points.

:cool:

[niko_cee]

Women voters always hate women candidates.

To that Kings thread!

[Pepe]

Women voters always hate women candidates.

There we go again. Why is the only option that they hate Hillary? Why can't anyone accept that. maybe, they actually like Bernie's ideas more?

[niko_cee]

I don't make the rules.

[Pepe]

The African-American community is not a monolith either. Currently, there is a political power struggle between the old churches / activists and the new BLM / Tenahasi Coates crowd. The former derive their power from the Democratic Party's patronage and funding. Bernie, not being a Democrat can't and will never have access to it. They are going for Clinton.

The BLM crowd define the issues they face as simple as white supremacy (not the KKK but just that people normally play with their own kind). For the first time in their lives they have seen their own voices have an impact in places like Missouri while anyone working in the system just gets shut down like Obama or is a leech like Sharpton. We are back to the 60's. Bernie walks in whitesplaining that they don't even understand the problems or causes in their community. It doesn't play well. No clue if they will even take part.

That twat (I think misspelling his name makes you a racist, mate) and his reparations can fuck off.

[mikem]

I blame my phone's auto-correct feature, but I'm hiding behind the fact it is black.

If you read him he does not even want reparations or think they would change anything, so what is the point?

[phonics]

That twat (I think misspelling his name makes you a racist, mate) and his reparations can fuck off.

He's said he's voting Bernie if it makes you feel better. Here's an interesting piece on the Clintons history with Black voters.

http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/

edit: Toby, DemocracyNow has a good interview with him on this today. I don't agree with him but I think he gets his point across.

[mikem]

Phonics, are you talking about Coates? Was not aware that he had declared. I like that he brings up issues and he writes well but he is so pessimistic that you can't go anywhere.

[mikem]

And don't get me wrong - the Clinton's are great for the old black power structure and terrible for the people.

[Pepe]

He's said he's voting Bernie if it makes you feel better.

I read he is. Doesn't make me feel any better but I was already feeling pretty good. Also, I exaggerate when I call him a twat, but I do disagree with his overall stance.

[Pepe]

Phonics, are you talking about Coates? Was not aware that he had declared. I like that he brings up issues and he writes well but he is so pessimistic that you can't go anywhere.

http://www.democracynow.org/2016/2/10/ta_nehisi_coates_is_voting_for

[mikem]

Ah thanks. Had not seen that.

And I really could not agree more with the content of it. Reparations for things like redlining where you have specific people injured and specific injuring parties should really be a no-brainer.

[Spoonsky]

Chris Christie, hero of this page, has dropped out, meaning that his only real contribution to the campaign is destroying the one hope that Republicans had of winning the election.

[elth]

New Hampshire is a big deal not because the result was in any way a surprise to anyone who's been paying attention, but because it finally confirms that in a straight vote, both Sanders' and Trump's numbers are going to hold up. There's no issue with their support not being all talk and no go-to-the-poll.

If the Republican party isn't resigned to Trump being their nominee, they've got about a week to line up the cannons. If he starts winning in the south, it's game over for the moderates. Thinning the field by booting Christie and Fiorina will help, but some of those votes will go to Trump unless the party and the PACs actually start treating Trump as a legitimate threat.

[Henry]

None of the people I've read seem to think that Sanders is going to do nearly as well in other states. The first two were outliers, because of their demographics and because they allowed people who weren't party members to vote.

[Pepe]

That's the current view. Maybe once 'minorities' start paying attention they'll change their stance though. We'll see.


Chris Christie, hero of this page, has dropped out, meaning that his only real contribution to the campaign is destroying the one hope that Republicans had of winning the election.

And for that he goes down as my second favorite Republican. They should make him the moderator of the next debate.

[Lewis]

Was Marco Rubio their best chance by default? Apart from the fact that he technically isn't white (and even his story about Cuba is a lie), he's terrible in every way. The robot stuff just showed with a lightweight freak (Ed Miliband) he is.

[Pepe]

He's terrible but I guess he says all the right things:

-More bombs? Check
-Torture? Check
-Less taxes? Check
-Prolife? Check
-Build a wall? Check
-Jesus our saviour? Check
-Less healthcare? Check
-Even more bombs? Check

Then again, so does Cruz (and Trump, and...) so I'm not too sure what makes everyone think he is the most 'electable.'

[Pepe]

Speaking of 'electability', is there a more stupid concept out there?

http://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/TMW2016-02-03colorLARGE.jpg

[Davgooner]

Sanders has made a bit of a mockery of the 'liberal' media. For some reason they're not too keen on him. Can't think why.

[Pepe]

Money, probably. Slate in particular is a horrible offender but others are not too far behind.

[Bernanke]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syln8IkOIqc

Quite an endorsement. :(

[Jimmy Floyd]

I saw that earlier, it's going well for three minutes and then it cuts to Bernie issuing meaningless platitudes from a podium. Oh well. Go Bernie.

[phonics]

698627143316566016

This could get interesting.

[ItalAussie]

A fight over the Supreme Court while there's an election in play. Could be interesting.

[Giggles]

I thought I was in the dead thread and was about to look up Danny Baker.

[Bernanke]

Holy shit. :| This is huge, the turn towards the progressive it would mean to have a SCOTUS appointment done by Obama to replace Scalia can't really be understated. The court has swung 5-4 conservative for a while now.

[Spoonsky]

Only slightly ashamed to be pleased about that. He died in Marfa, you know; probably murdered by minimalist artists.

I have to say that despite everything I always held a soft spot for Scalia, because he was one of the few conservatives with a sense of humor.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Someone's going to have to give me a 101 on why some judge dying is MASSIVE politically (although unsurprisingly it looks like he was). The Supreme Court lineup must change fairly often for one reason or another, no?

[Lewis]

Twitter slung up this (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/03/28/supreme-confidence) interesting (and long) portrait of him. Sounded like a bit of a geezer.

[Spoonsky]

Someone's going to have to give me a 101 on why some judge dying is MASSIVE politically (although unsurprisingly it looks like he was). The Supreme Court lineup must change fairly often for one reason or another, no?

No, actually. Supreme Court judges are appointed for life. The last time one was appointed was near the start of Obama's tenure. A lot of important cases were heard since then, and a lot more will be heard before the next one dies - having a fifth liberal judge would swing things massively. It's one reason why the Presidency is as important as it is, and why the timing of this is so important.

[mikem]

No, they have life appointments as an attempt to make it so they are not beholden to anyone. Presidents will appoint 1-4 in their terms. Effectively, it puts us In a Constitutional crisis as the current make up typically was 5-4 and will now be 4-4 on votes. Any 4-4 vote is non-binding as legal precedent. Obama can appoint but the Republican controlled Senate approves and confirms. So they can choose to not schedule hearings or filibuster any confirmation vote to wait for the election which is not too far away. So it will be at least an ugly fight. And if they recess prior to the election it can get uglier as Obama can appoint someone during a recess without a vote. They only get to stay in until the next recess, but at least two famous Supreme Court justices started that way.

[Lewis]

Only slightly ashamed to be pleased about that. He died in Marfa, you know; probably murdered by minimalist artists.

I have to say that despite everything I always held a soft spot for Scalia, because he was one of the few conservatives with a sense of humor.

You can't really accuse your political opponents of lacking humour whilst being 'pleased' that one of them has died.

[Pepe]

Lol at everyone skipping the RIP mate we'll miss you phase and jumping straight to the we can't let Obama choose the replacement phase. At least maybe we'll get five minutes of NOT TERRORISM during tonight's debate.

[Spoonsky]

You can't really accuse your political opponents of lacking humour whilst being 'pleased' that one of them has died.

I'm not pleased that he's dead, I'm pleased that he's no longer a member of the Supreme Court. The nature of the Supreme Court means that these things unfortunately coincide. Besides, I don't really accept your suggestion there; you could accuse the people who bought 'Ding Dong the Witch is Dead' after Thatcher's death of a lot of things, but 'lacking humor' isn't one of them.

[Lewis]

The person who came up with that idea was the one with the humour. You underestimate the bitterness of the horde.

[Spoonsky]

It's still, above all, a joke, albeit a bitter one. That shows humor. You don't get the same thing, en masse, on the conservative side.

This (http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/02/why-theres-no-conservative-jon-stewart/385480/) goes into it more.

[mugbull]

I think you can be pleased he's dead. He's harmed this country significantly due to his own hubris, which is incredibly damaging

[ItalAussie]

Most justices retire a bit before they actually die. You get the feeling Scalia wanted to retire, but wouldn't be willing to do it while a Democrat was in charge.

He had a sense of humour, and you get the impression that he was a fun person to be around - even well-liked by the more liberal justices. I definitely didn't like his decisions, or his decision-making process, but that's par for the course.

[Pepe]

The fuck am I watching? Even an episode of Jerry Springer is more respectable that this shit. Hard to believe these people are actually running for presidency.

[QE Harold Flair]

Aren't you going to be on the other side of the wall, anyway?

[GS]

It's quite remarkable really the way the Republicans are claiming Obama shouldn't be appointing Scalia's successor. It takes some fucking nerve, that.

[Byron]

They know they don't have a leg to stand on, but really they have to be seen to at least have a tantrum.

[ItalAussie]

The longest a Supreme Court vacancy has gone before a new appointment is 145 days. There are 342 days left in Obama's term.

Prediction: The Republicans are going to uniformly block this appointment until after 2020.

[ItalAussie]

It'd never fly, but imagine the heads exploding if Clinton/Sanders nominated Obama.

Crazy thing is, he'd be pretty well-qualified for the position. More's the pity.

[Bernanke]

1. Repubs block Obama's appointment
2. Hillary wins the nomination
3. Hillary nominates Obama
4. Emperor Obama wins

:nodd:

[Byron]

Doesn't Obama get to overrule the House/Senate in these instances?

[Bernanke]

Doesn't Obama get to overrule the House/Senate in these instances?

Not for SCOTUS appointments.

[mikem]

Voted for him twice and would rather vote for him again than any of the current candidates, but Obama is not remotely qualified for the Supreme Court. He went to Harvard and edited the law review which is the start of a good legal career. He taught con law at Chicago for twelve years. Sounds good on paper, but he also either worked full time as an attorney or in the Illinois State Legislature at the same time. A more accurate description is that he taught a class a semester and published no legal research. He worked on a total of 30 cases. It is a good legal career if your goal is to be a politician, but it is nothing compared to a weak career (Thomas) let alone someone who excelled at multiple aspects of the law like Scalia or the notorious RGB.

[John Arne]

Voted for him twice and would rather vote for him again than any of the current candidates, but Obama is not remotely qualified for the Supreme Court. He went to Harvard and edited the law review which is the start of a good legal career. He taught con law at Chicago for twelve years. Sounds good on paper, but he also either worked full time as an attorney or in the Illinois State Legislature at the same time. A more accurate description is that he taught a class a semester and published no legal research. He worked on a total of 30 cases. It is a good legal career if your goal is to be a politician, but it is nothing compared to a weak career (Thomas) let alone someone who excelled at multiple aspects of the law like Scalia or the notorious RGB.

Well, colour me surprised.

[Toby]

This campaign seems to mirror The West Wing more every day.

[Spoonsky]

Here's what will go down, Obama will nominate a fairly moderate judge. The Republicans then have a choice to make, because if they block the moderate judge they risk opening the door for a much more progressive one should Democrats do well in November. It's an interesting dilemma for them and they're probably better off accepting the moderate judge, especially as it gives Democrats a stick to beat them with for the rest of the year if they don't.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This campaign seems to mirror The West Wing more every day.

Arnold Vinick would fucking clean up against these knobheads.

[Toby]

Alan Alda rolled up in something else I was watching the other day and - having only finished watching the last series a few weeks ago - I forgot for a moment that he wasn't a real politician.

Unlike so many of the Republican candidates, he actually looked the part.

[Henry]

I'm not pleased that he's dead

I am. Scalia was a disgrace of a human being.

“torture is not punishment....[it would be] absurd to say that you can’t stick something under the fingernails, smack them in the face."

"[The state] derives its moral authority from God ... to execute wrath, including even wrath by the sword, which is unmistakably a reference to the death penalty."

The idea of the separation of church and state is “spoken by a serpent, addressing a woman named Eve.”

"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is ‘actually’ innocent.”

[Henry]

Also LOL at the GOP debate descending into open farce.

Revealing, the most controversial part was the part where Trump told the truth for once by condemning the Bush Administration for lying about WMD's and being unprepared for the 9/11 attacks. He rowed back on it afterwards. Someone must have had a word.

[Bernanke]

Also LOL at the GOP debate descending into open farce.

Revealing, the most controversial part was the part where Trump told the truth for once by condemning the Bush Administration for lying about WMD's and being unprepared for the 9/11 attacks. He rowed back on it afterwards. Someone must have had a word.

Him trying to claim to be the only one opposing the invasion was quite lol as well.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/donald-trump-says-he-was-against-the-iraq-war-thats-not-how-i-remember-it/462804/

Rough timeline:

October 2002: Obama gives speech opposing war.
October 2002: Congress votes on the war. Hilary Clinton votes in favor of the war, Sanders votes in opposition.

March 2003: Invasion begins
May 2003: Bush gives "Mission Accomplished" speech

August 2004: Trump begins vocally criticizing the war. By this time over 1000 US troops had already died.

"I'm the only one on this stage that said, ‘Do not go into Iraq. Do not attack Iraq,’ " Trump said. "Nobody else on this stage said that. And I said it loud and strong. And I was in the private sector. I wasn't a politician, fortunately. But I said it, and I said it loud and clear, ‘You'll destabilize the Middle East.’ "
-Trump during the primary debate

[Pepe]

He did say 'on this stage.' I have not checked but it probably is true considering who's left in the Republican race.

The booing all throughout was a good lol.

[Bernanke]

But he's also phrasing it as if he said it before the invasion began. It's not really that impressive to see in August 2004 that the invasion wasn't a great success.

[Pepe]

True, but tell that to the others who still like to ignore that fact.

[GS]

August 2004 is a lot earlier than some people started criticising the Iraq war.

[Henry]

The Sunni insurgency was in full flight at that point, so he was just stating what was obvious by then.