The Missing Plane Thread

[Byron]

Prompted by this;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34687139

Russian airline missing over Egypt, with more than 200 on board, conflicting reports about what has actually happened to the plane.

[Luke Emia]

It's Crashed.

[Giggles]

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--3HUSfHUr--/ktwsironnp83lum404wt.jpg

[Luca]

At first I thought "dodgy Russian plane," but it's an A321 that's less than 20 years old. Also, they certainly don't get much inclement (in flying terms) weather in that area.

My gut suggests ISIS types, which would result in an absolute fucking disaster. Could they even get a missile up to FL330 (where it got to before they crashed)?

If it was some sort of mechanical/systems failure, it's going to be a messy one. That's a craggy, hilly part of the world. Not much flat land until you get to the northern extreme of the peninsula (there's essentially a rectangle of flat desert that spans the gap between mainland Egypt and Israel).

[Luca]

RT reporting that the crash site has been found near Al-Arish (which happens to lie smack dab in the middle of that band of flatness). Hopefully that's a good sign (it likely isn't, but alas).

[Luca]

Or maybe it was a dodgy Russian plane...


A source at Sharm El-Sheikh Airport told RIA Novosti the pilot of the missing plane requested a change of course, saying the jet would have to land in Cairo.

The source said the crew of the crashed plane had complained to the airport’s technical service that the jet had engine problems.

Pilots are taught to aviate, navigate, and then communicate, but if something not abrupt happened up there, it's strange that they didn't sqwuak a mayday call. Catastrophic in-air event? I don't know.

I have a sort of strange - in the sense that it comes from nowhere logical - interest in aviation (not just the morbid bits). I didn't play with toy planes as a kid.

[Lee]

It will be dodgy Russian-ness. Like fuck would I go anywhere with a Russian airliner.

[Magic]

Shot down by a surface to air missile.

:baz:

[phonics]

It'll be dodgy Russianness.

The Ukranians had to have the Americans rebuild their fuel depositories for it's Nuclear Reactors after Russia shut off the gas. The Ukranians couldn't confirm whether it had worked or not because the only way they knew it was running in the past was that it would leak. Russian Engineering is awful.

[elth]

“I am meeting my parents,” said 25-year-old Ella Smirnova, a tall young woman seemingly in shock.

“I spoke to them last on the phone when they were already on the plane, and then I heard the news.”

“I will keep hoping until the end that they are alive, but perhaps I will never see them again.”


:-|

Can't imagine having to speak to press at a time like that.

[Luke Emia]

I was going to put earlier my gut would be that it's been shot down. But the thing is like others have said it's Russian engineering. No way on earth I would ever fly with someone like Aeroflot.

[Benny]

I have a sort of strange - in the sense that it comes from nowhere logical - interest in aviation (not just the morbid bits). I didn't play with toy planes as a kid.

Me too, I think it's ever since I first flew that I've been fascinated by these machines. The amount of engineering that goes into designing/building them so they don't just drop out of the sky is amazing. However I also have quite a morbid interest in aviation accidents, I thought I hit the jackpot when I found that site which had the last recordings from black boxes/radio calls on crashed planes.

[Boydy]

Everyone's dead, apparently.

[Foe]

Flying back to the uk in about 12 hours. :moop:

It's also torrential rain / flooding here.

:uhoh:

[Lee]

Where are you?

[Foe]

Houston. Thankfully it's not a dodgy airline though.

When it rains here it's spectacular. Fuck living in a proper hurricane prone area in Louisiana or Florida.

[Magic]

It'll be dodgy Russianness.

The Ukranians had to have the Americans rebuild their fuel depositories for it's Nuclear Reactors after Russia shut off the gas. The Ukranians couldn't confirm whether it had worked or not because the only way they knew it was running in the past was that it would leak. Russian Engineering is awful.

Anymore clueless comments mate?

[Magic]

Islamic State claiming it. :harold:

[Luca]

It being ISIS would be an eye-opener, because as I mentioned upthread, the consensus is that they don't have the weaponry to hit something at 33,000 feet.

[Lee]

Surely they're talking bollocks. What sort of weapon would they need for that?

[Luca]

Surely they're talking bollocks. What sort of weapon would they need for that?

You'd need a ground-launched, (probably radar-) guided missile, or a modern vehicle-launched missile. Even a British Rapier missile, for instance, isn't going to get that high.

As far as anyone knows, they only have MANPADs (shoulder-launched).

[Magic]

31,000ft. Who's to say the cabin wasn't breached? On board sabotage? The captain asked to emergency land so it wasn't a rapid incident.

[DC]

Barring a SAM system they wont, and very unlikely they got one of those over the border (or stole one from Egypt).

Even losing both engines planes glide sufficiently to allow time to mayday, so it seems like whatever the issue was the pilot believed it could be managed.

[Lee]

I like a good terrorist attack as much as the next man but that sounds like wishful thinking mate. If we were talking about a plane maintained in a half civilised country I might be with you but Russians are shit at planes.

[Luca]

31,000ft. Who's to say the cabin wasn't breached? On board sabotage? The captain asked to emergency land so it wasn't a rapid incident.

FR24 had FL330 (we won't really know for sure until they look at the flight computers) but regardless, a shoulder-launched SAM isn't getting near that. On-board sabotage/cabin breach is more plausible if you want to go down that route. That being said, security at Sharm El-Sheikh's airport was pretty good when I went.

[GS]

Sharm is probably the only place in Egypt you could get away with going to at the minute.

[QE Harold Flair]

Sounds like a sharmbles to me. Perhaps it was a heat-Sheikhing missile?

[Lee]

A video from the Sinai Islamic Front purportedly of the plane being hit.:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ee4_1446300521#3pmv4zOWiVODsbFo.99

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

I smell shite.

[Lee]

Yeah I don't think it was brought down. Just thought it would be of interest.

[John Arne]

They have already confirmed that the captain complained of engine trouble before take-off. It's clearly not terrorist related.

[Pepe]

Unless the terrorists fiddled with the engine. :sherlock:

[Lee]

Lufthansa and Air France avoiding flights over Sinai according to the BBC. Hmm.

[DC]

Precaution, same thing happened in Ukraine and most air disasters. You tend to avoid the area if only to make passengers feel better.

[Shindig]

I know they're like. daft and that but there's no benefit to claiming you've took a civilian plane down, right? And you'd think these fellas would have better cameras.

[Spoonsky]

Has anyone heard from Welby recently?

[Boydy]

He's been posting in gamezine throughout the day. Why would he be on a Russian flight?

[Boom-Boom]

They have already confirmed that the captain complained of engine trouble before take-off. It's clearly not terrorist related.

It has been confirmed that no 'SOS' calls were made / the captain never reported any trouble.

It will be fascinating to discover what has gone wrong here. Very rare for a plane like this to just fall out of the sky

[Spoonsky]

He's been posting in gamezine throughout the day. Why would he be on a Russian flight?

It was a joke about the fact that he's in, or just was in, Egypt at the moment.

[Yevrah]

Very rare for a plane like this to just fall out of the sky

And yet that sentence seems to come up every time one of these events happen.

[Luca]

And yet that sentence seems to come up every time one of these events happen.

With 100,000 commercial flights a day, it is "pretty rare," but I know what you're getting at. Planes are incredibly well-engineered; even with complete engine failure, any aircraft from the past couple of decades can glide in to a relatively 'safe' (by crash landing terms) landing, and, especially in modern aircraft, it's very hard to stay in a stall because the aircraft will actively fight it. It takes something catastrophic (missile, pilot suicide, the actual plane breaking up mid-flight, etc.) for the plane to "drop out of the sky" like this one seems to have done.

[Magic]

Espesh a less than 20 year old A321.

Bodies found over 2km, if it's a break up that's a lot more. And if it's a nose dive it's a lot less.

[Shindig]

So for the IS claim to be true they either have stronger weapons than previously thought or the plane's altitude had dropped prior to being hit.

[Davgooner]

Turns out it was an Irish plane being leased by this Russian mob.

[Lee]

Fucking IRA.

[DC]

Espesh a less than 20 year old A321.

Bodies found over 2km, if it's a break up that's a lot more. And if it's a nose dive it's a lot less.

They're now widening it to 15km after they found a 3 year old 8km away.

That would suggest a mid-air breakup scenario.

[QE Harold Flair]

I don't think IS could have weapons to take it down from the ground. A bomb on board, perhaps?

[Lee]

What makes a plane fall apart? Would it necessarily be the cause or could rapid descent cause that to happen after the plane is already fucked?

[QE Harold Flair]

A plane wouldn't usually break apart from that unless it was inverted or falling almost vertical. Air Crash Investigation watching has its uses. :)

[Magic]

They're now widening it to 15km after they found a 3 year old 8km away.

That would suggest a mid-air breakup scenario.

Fuck sake.

[DC]

What makes a plane fall apart? Would it necessarily be the cause or could rapid descent cause that to happen after the plane is already fucked?

Falling out of the sky takes wings falling off, or a complete loss of power during a manoeuvre.

Even with a hole in it, the plane wouldn't fall out of the sky. The plane could break-up partially if it suffered significant isolated damage that caused the fuselage to de-laminate (lose its skin) but the airframe tends to stay intact even with rapid decompression and it wouldn't affect thrust etc unless the pilots were knocked out.

The graphs for air speed and altitude somewhat indicate a massively catastrophic failure.

[DC]

And by failure, I am not ruling out it being hit by something - be it a bird strike or missile.

[Foe]

My plane landed without falling apart. However, I have been greeted by fog and a 5 hour delay.

[Boom-Boom]

I don't think IS could have weapons to take it down from the ground. A bomb on board, perhaps?

Their weapons have a reach of 9,000ft. This plane was flying at 31,000ft. Maybe they were stood on a hill.

I wonder how long Sharm Sheikh is going to be considered safe for. I know a fair few people who have been there recently, it seems very popular. I wouldn't even consider going at the moment.

[Magic]

I bet it hit a Russian fighter that wasn't on radar.

[Lee]

Not a chance I'd b going near North Africa at the minute. I've looked in previous years and some of the resorts look lovely but any risk of some cunt shooting me on a beach is too much for me.

[QE Harold Flair]

A plane certainly can disintegrate if there's a structural failure previously undected.

[Spoonsky]

My gut says that it's ISIS.

[DC]

A plane certainly can disintegrate if there's a structural failure previously undected.

Unlikely. Even with a critical failing the plane typically retains structural integrity.

It would have taken the kind of explosive decompression that caused the tail to fall off, wing to fall off, or cabin to be destroyed for that to happen.

[QE Harold Flair]

Depends where it is. I remember one episode of ACI where the tail fell off due to structural deficiency and it broke up on the way down.

Seems there's been a fair few down the years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_structural_failures

[DC]

Furthering on from last comment - plane suffered a tailstrike in 2002.

There was an Air China flight went down same way from metal fatigue and a piss poor repair from a tailstrike. China Flight 611.

[QE Harold Flair]

There does seem to have been a lot of crashes lately.

[Magic]

That plane that downed after 9/11 was due to some rivets that caused the tail to fall off.

[Boom-Boom]

There does seem to have been a lot of crashes lately.

I don't remember any big recent accidents being down to a mechanical fault with the plane.

[QE Harold Flair]

I was just speaking in general.

[DC]

Depends where it is. I remember one episode of ACI where the tail fell off due to structural deficiency and it broke up on the way down.

Seems there's been a fair few down the years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_structural_failures

Pretty terrible list mixing up a lot of different things. Most of those in that list did not disintegrate, and not sure how a bomb exploding qualifies as "aircraft structural failures".

This is a more appropriate list (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_structural_failures_and_collapses#Transpor tation) and even then most of the planes landed.

Flight 611 is really the only known example of a plane shredding itself. In the case of TWA800 the plane actually continued to fly without the front of the plane for a disturbing length of time.

[Raoul Duke]

Not a chance I'd b going near North Africa at the minute. I've looked in previous years and some of the resorts look lovely but any risk of some cunt shooting me on a beach is too much for me.

I went to Marrakech earlier this year, but I don't think I'd go now. Seems like anywhere around there is going to kick off at some point. Shame, as it was pretty awesome.

[Magic]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34697416

So it's been hit by something then. My guess again is a Russian bomber.

[Disco]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34697416

So it's been hit by something then. My guess again is a Russian bomber.

How can you read that article and come to that conclusion?

[Benny]

I'm going to guess he didn't read it.

[Luca]

The article surely insinuates that there was foul play afoot, so I see where Magic is coming from:


At a news conference in Moscow, the deputy director of the airline, which was later renamed Metrojet, ruled out a technical fault and pilot error.

If it's not either one of those (and given that the weather was fine), you're basically left with a bird strike as your only plausible (non-violent) cause, and a bird strike wouldn't cause the thing to break up in midair.

That being said, I disagree with Magic in that I don't believe that it was hit by something (the quote is from a Metrojet executive, who has his own agenda, obviously), I just see from where he's come to the conclusion. Besides, the strongest evidence against some sort of malicious intent is Israel. Their (technically advanced) air force watches this area like a hawk; they would surely have noticed something being launched or foreign vessels in the airspace.

[Magic]

Apologies I thought it was the investigators quote. My bad.

[Benny]

Sounds like a business owner denying there could be anything wrong with the plane, and therefore any compensation due from his firm. The pilot telling his wife his concerns with the plane and the previous tail fault doesn't sound too good.

[Disco]

'Man with vested interest in it not being a mechanical fault says it's not a mechanical fault based on nothing whatsoever' is how I read it.

[Luca]

That was indeed my read on it as well.

[Raoul Duke]

If it's an explosive device it should be pretty obvious (localised damage, chemical residue etc.).

Unmanned drone perhaps?

[Magic]

A Russian Antonov has crashed in Sudan presumably killing all on board. It was cargo mainly but there were passengers.

[Lee]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34724604

Sounds like a bomb then. The only thing I find odd about it is, if security at Sharm is shit enough to allow somebody to get a bomb on board, surely you're better of in terms of propaganda value targeting an American plane. The Russians will just go mental now, you'd think.

[Boydy]

Who the fuck is still going to Egypt on holiday from Britain? Fuck that shit.

[Magic]

It's Lockerbie all over again, except you're right Lee this shit is going to get dirty now.

[John]

You'd imagine the Russians will just wipe them out now.

[Lee]

Apparently this knowledge hasn't come from the wreckage but from "intelligence". They're not letting planes leave until the situation out there has been checked by "British security" from which it isn't a huge leap to suggest that there might have been a threat against British planes. I don't see why they would be delaying flights otherwise, it's a bit of an odd step to take a few days after the event.

[Benny]

Apologies to Magic for dismissing your 'shot down' theory, these fucking pyramid-building cunts.

[John Arne]

It wasn't shot down - there was (apparently) a bomb taken onboard.

[QE Harold Flair]

That's what I put forward. What do I win?

[Lee]

A holiday in Sharm-El-Sheikh and lifetime citizenship of the Islamic State.

[John Arne]

Well yeah, lots of people said it. Well fucking done.

[Disco]

That's what I put forward. What do I win?

The continued ability to make baseless predictions.

[QE Harold Flair]

The continued ability to make baseless predictions.

It wasn't baseless.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If Putin wasn't such a useless cunt he'd grab the opportunity to get balls deep in up to date American weaponry and 'neutralise' the whole region to Russia's advantage.

[Disco]

It wasn't baseless.

No, sorry, too tedious.

[Davgooner]

It looks as if British tourists are going to be evacuated from Egypt by the RAF.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

It looks as if British tourists are going to be evacuated from Egypt by the RAF.

Where did you hear that?

[Benny]

It wasn't shot down - there was (apparently) a bomb taken onboard.

I know it wasn't... The point was it wasn't just 'an accident' it seems.

[Raoul Duke]

It was probably the Russians themselves to give them an excuse to pile in.

[Lee]

The Irish have stopped flights in and out of Sharm now and CNN is saying that US intelligence is suggesting a bomb planted by ISIS, whose Sinai affiliate have issued another claim of responsibility which promises that they will provide proof.

Putin's response is going to be interesting.

[Magic]

http://static3.gamespot.com/uploads/scale_super/577/5771523/2945137-1772568646-1485..gif

[Lee]

He might strap himself to a nuclear warhead and suicide bomb himself into legend. He will be fucking loving this.

[QE Harold Flair]

No, sorry, too tedious.

Don't bring it up, then.

[simon]

If it is ISIS that's blown it up, will this mean the Russians will go completely balls out and annihilate them?

[Magic]

Troops on the ground. :drool:

[Davgooner]

Where did you hear that?

Geezer on Sky suggesting it would result from the COBRA meeting earlier.

[Lee]

They are talking about ensuring people can get back without saying how so it's bound to be the RAF.

I reckon there's a chance the Russians will deny it was a bomb at all. Putin won't want Russians pissed off that him going into Syria has caused Russian civilians to die. If they do acknowledge it was a bomb he will have to react or he loses credibility.

The Russians love having a hard bastard in charge and if he can't live up to that his long term prospects are pretty much fucked. He'd rather it not be a bomb.

[Luke Emia]

Yeah this could get very messy. Biggest winner from all this has to be Assad.

[niko_cee]

One wonders whether, were they not busy trying to get their hands on ALL THE INFORMATION IN THE WORLD, the intelligence services might have picked up on this bomb plot evidence before the plane went splodey.

Maybe they did.

[Davgooner]

To be fair, they only had the metadata.

[Disco]

The possibility of evacuation smacks of arse covering. We already don't really want anything to do with this conflict (apart from some useless bombing that we know is useless but allows us to point at it and say we're doing something) if a plane full of Brits was downed we'd be obliged to actually think of a competent response.

[Magic]

These terrorists probably don't even use tech in Sinai, looks like they didn't need to bother especially with the airport security being so lol. IS compatriots gave them the bomb all they needed to do was get it on with the baggage and a timer. Half the staff slept on the job apparently.

[Toby]

IS is claiming these were the components of the bomb:

http://cdn1.ntn.al/600x/90/10162/7phk4x3nkbm8uz9fuoo1o9iwbpqht6.jpeg

Surely that can't be true?

[Sam]

These terrorists probably don't even use tech in Sinai, looks like they didn't need to bother especially with the airport security being so lol. IS compatriots gave them the bomb all they needed to do was get it on with the baggage and a timer. Half the staff slept on the job apparently.

Egyptian security and the Sinai area itself is woeful lax. A grand shame as the Sinai itself is a pretty lovely place to travel around, albeit my tan made me look Arabic which could be why I got around the area easy.

[Magic]

This might or might not be sinister (she's dead now so it doesn't matter) but look at this prime bit of real estate the Muzzies took out on that plane: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330353/Bomb-took-Russian-plane-Egypt-hidden-seats-30A-31A-equal-kilo-TNT-according-Moscow.html

Absolutely nailed on for a career as a top earner on Live Jasmin.

:(

[Toby]

Hazy Instagram pictures of a 15-year-old. Nice.

[John]

That article is disgraceful.

[Giggles]

Not missing, but only place to put it.

http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0319/775954-russia-crash/

[Spoonsky]

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://bnonews.com/news/index.php/news/id4383

Time for another 3 straight weeks of coverage. At least it will distract CNN from Trump for a bit.

(Sad that something like this happens and the first thing I think of is the news coverage.)

[Lee]

That's what I like to see five hours before I take off.

[Magic]

Egypt Air + Malaysia Airlines = Air Crash Investigation Season 16. :drool:

[-james-]

That's what I like to see five hours before I take off.

I'd be relieved. What are the chances of two going down in one day? :)

[phonics]

It's crashed.

[Yevrah]

What caused it?

[Gray Fox]

Fire on board that started in the toilets. Apparently.

[Giggles]

Fire on board that started in the toilets. Apparently.

Sneaky smoke?

[Yevrah]

That's got be either an electrical fault or deliberate, surely?

[Gray Fox]

I'd say most signs point to it being caused by human input either deliberately or someone has tried to sneak something into the toilets, like a crafty smoke or something.

What is a little weird is the planes last 2 actions were to make a sharp 90 degree left turn, then it did a 360 degree turn back to the right.

[niko_cee]

Presumably someone lit up the most chronic blunt of all time and the smoke drifted into the cockpit.

Too fast for a fire, too slow for a bomb.

[Magic]

Maybe one of Mert's BBall shots knocked it out of the sky.