Aliens

[-james-]

Kindly assign a probability to each of the following being true (0-100%):

Intelligent extra-terrestrials have at some point visited earth - []

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists on earth - []

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - []

Any extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - []

Humans will discover concrete evidence of extra-terrestrial life this century - []

Humans will discover concrete evidence of intelligent extra-terrestrial life this century - []

[niko_cee]

Intelligent extra-terrestrials have at some point visited earth - [<1%]

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists on earth - [<1%]

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - [>50%]

Any extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - [>90%]

Humans will discover concrete evidence of extra-terrestrial life this century - [<5%]

Humans will discover concrete evidence of intelligent extra-terrestrial life this century - [<1%]

[Jimmy Floyd]

Intelligent extra-terrestrials have at some point visited earth - ~zero

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists on earth - zero

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - Probably less than you'd think. 10%

Any extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - 95%

Humans will discover concrete evidence of extra-terrestrial life this century - 1%

Humans will discover concrete evidence of intelligent extra-terrestrial life this century - ~zero

[-james-]

Intelligent extra-terrestrials have at some point visited earth - [0.00001%]

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists on earth - [0.0000001%]

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - [40%] I think the following would suggest a decent chance of this. Depends on the definition I suppose.

Any extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - [80%]

Humans will discover concrete evidence of extra-terrestrial life this century - [5%]

Humans will discover concrete evidence of intelligent extra-terrestrial life this century - [0.5%]

[Giggles]

Intelligent extra-terrestrials have at some point visited earth - 0

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists on earth - 0

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - 100

Any extra-terrestrial life exists in the universe - 100

Humans will discover concrete evidence of extra-terrestrial life this century - 0

Humans will discover concrete evidence of intelligent extra-terrestrial life this century - 0

[Spikey M]

What Jim said.

[Lofty]

My dad reckons he saw a UFO in the lakes after he took LSD at a stone circle so that's concrete evidence for me.

Just wish he hadn't told the local paper about his 'findings'.

[Offshore Toon]

This is the most pointless predictions thread of all time. At least give some questions for people to argue over.

[Adramelch]

Aliens?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I think Jim has nailed it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Reading back, I'm not so sure about the last two questions. At the moment I don't think we're putting much effort at all into space and less still into finding extraterrestrial life. If for whatever reason we started to put a large amount of resources into that, and if technology continued to develop, I guess we might find some algae within a few decades.

The key in my layman brain has always been how many favourable coincidences does it take for 'life' to kick off even when given the most favourable circumstances. The favourable circumstances will almost never come up.

[-james-]

This is the most pointless predictions thread of all time. At least give some questions for people to argue over.

I couldn't be arsed coming up with an actual post so I thought this might incite some debate. Didn't realise Jimmy would solve it so quickly.

[-james-]

Reading back, I'm not so sure about the last two questions. At the moment I don't think we're putting much effort at all into space and less still into finding extraterrestrial life. If for whatever reason we started to put a large amount of resources into that, and if technology continued to develop, I guess we might find some algae within a few decades.

The key in my layman brain has always been how many favourable coincidences does it take for 'life' to kick off even when given the most favourable circumstances. The favourable circumstances will almost never come up.

I guess the problem is that algae surely exists, it's just really far away and really small. The chance of there being some on mars is still non-zero iirc so that's probably the best shot.

[Spikey M]

Reading back, I'm not so sure about the last two questions. At the moment I don't think we're putting much effort at all into space and less still into finding extraterrestrial life. If for whatever reason we started to put a large amount of resources into that, and if technology continued to develop, I guess we might find some algae within a few decades.

The key in my layman brain has always been how many favourable coincidences does it take for 'life' to kick off even when given the most favourable circumstances. The favourable circumstances will almost never come up.

That would rely on said planet being one of our nearest neighbours, which is incredibly unlikely. Said Algae-like life forms could exist billions of lightyears away and probably do, but there's no chance we're ever going to find them.

[Yevrah]

With the size of the Universe being what it is and the nature of time being what it is (in that we'd need to get to the right place at the right time to fid life or the remains of it), future humans could be far more advanced than we are and still not find anything.

[Spikey M]

With the size of the Universe being what it is and the nature of time being what it is (in that we'd need to get to the right place at the right time to fid life or the remains of it), future humans could be far more advanced than we are and still not find anything.

This is it. Even if we saw the algae through some super-tech-scope, if it's 160 million lightyears away then we're seeing what was knocking about when the dinosaurs were stomping around. It would still tell us nothing of what's there now (if anything).

[Jimmy Floyd]

I guess the problem is that algae surely exists, it's just really far away and really small. The chance of there being some on mars is still non-zero iirc so that's probably the best shot.

I know but I'm thinking if we can AI some micro-robots out there at the speed of light, using technology that's as 50 years away as ChatGPT was 50 years ago.

[phonics]

I've long held the opinion that space and the various things that accompany it might be the most boring chat a group can have. The sea is more interesting than space. Space chat can, in fact, get in the sea.

[Offshore Toon]

I've long held the opinion that space and the various things that accompany it might be the most boring chat a group can have. The sea is more interesting than space. Space chat can, in fact, get in the sea.
At work a couple of weeks ago, two girls on my team were having a chat about which animal they'd be if they had the choice. I was laughing/exhaling at most of the things they were saying, then they asked what I'd pick. I said it'd be pretty fun to be a bird, which was met with "I used to say bird a lot." Turns out its been an ongoing conversation since childhood. I'd have killed for some hypothetical space shit over 'what animal would you be?'

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

They've been having the same conversation with each other since childhood?

How much can the conversation change?

[John Arne]

I think people underestimate just how quickly us humans have evolved.

My guess is that alien lifeform exists, but likely way less intelligent and evolved as ourselves.

[Yevrah]

I think people underestimate just how quickly us humans have evolved.

My guess is that alien lifeform exists, but likely way less intelligent and evolved as ourselves.

On the flipside, one could say that humans will think they're at the Apex of life because we're a) arrogant and b) it's all we know.

[Raoul Duke]

There's a great What But Why (https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html) on this.

I think people underestimate a) the vastness and b) the timing required for us to come across something else out there. There could have been a huge civilisation around 3bn years ago or 1bn years later but we're such a new thing we might just miss it

[Spikey M]

There's a great What But Why (https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html) on this.

I think people underestimate a) the vastness and b) the timing required for us to come across something else out there. There could have been a huge civilisation around 3bn years ago or 1bn years later but we're such a new thing we might just miss it

The problem is that we just have no idea how rare life is. It could be extremely common and able to spawn into existence on one in a thousand planets. Or, maybe it's just a complete freak occurance and you'd need a quadrifucktriilion earth-like planets before anything like the life on this planet happened again.

[Offshore Toon]

They've been having the same conversation with each other since childhood?

How much can the conversation change?
I think its just a girl/'talking for the sake of talking' thing and one of them has been using that as a topic for decades. Bit like when we bring up Spikey's pinheed.

[Spikey M]

Change everything to 100%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/66448453

[Yevrah]

Maybe we're in one big Truman show, created by an advanced civilization and one of them is trying to let us know. Bet the set ends behind that question mark.

[Spikey M]

I'll take them seriously when they draw us a celestial cock and balls.

[Ian]

Maybe the Plough was their attempt at that.