Last Man Standing

[Jimmy Floyd]

Brentford.

[phonics]

List of teams picked please.

[Baz]

List of teams picked please.

https://i.imgur.io/mz41FGz_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Lofty]

Wolves.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Brighton.

[Baz]

List of teams picked please.

Who you having?

[phonics]

Brentford.

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.io/EqChC7e_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[-james-]

There was some logic between me going Newcastle over Brentford (do Brentford have another easy game soon?) but I can't remember what that was. Gonna be a big unforced error.

[phonics]

My tactic this week was to pick whatever James picked but he used one of my previously picked teams so the algorithm went to whatever Jim picked.

[Baz]

Private picks from next week then? :baz:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Brighton :cool:

[Baz]

Leeds vs. Brentford
Leicester vs. Brighton
Fulham vs. Tottenham
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle
Bournemouth vs. Nottm Forest
Liverpool vs. Chelsea
Man City vs. Wolves
West Ham vs. Everton
Southampton vs. Aston Villa
Arsenal vs. Man Utd


Deadline is 12PM Saturday

[Lofty]

Brighton.

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.io/g7gLQH7_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

No casualties this week.

[-james-]

Bournemouth. :pards:

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is the first time I've been in a quandary between two or maybe three options. It depends how deep this whole thing is going to go. Think I have to play to win i.e. for it to go very deep, but ugh.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Brentford.

[-james-]

Bournemouth. :pards:

Might need to re-calibrate the model tbh.

[-james-]

I would like to change my pick to Tottenham Hotspur Football Club if that's okay.

[Baz]

Sure.
Jimmy Floyd and phonics still to choose

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is fairly ballsy and involves far too much faith in Chelsea, but I'm going to go for West Ham United.

[-james-]

I'm down to the last 17 in a 150 entry one of these and my picks in that have annoyingly mirrored yours here the last two weeks, so I wish you the best of luck

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

This is fairly ballsy and involves far too much faith in Chelsea, but I'm going to go for West Ham United.
I almost did the same.

[phonics]

Brighton

[Baz]

James has 3 lives
Jimmy has 2
Everyone else who is left has 1

https://i.imgur.io/QmnonEu_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Baz]

Brighton


Brighton.

Dead.

Mahow vs. Baz later too, so another guaranteed casualty incoming, if not two.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That worked out well. Deep into March trying to outlast a professional gambler with my wits alone, here we fucking go.

[phonics]

I never recovered from that Everton pick.

[Baz]

Dead.

Mahow vs. Baz later too, so another guaranteed casualty incoming, if not two.

Both dead!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

:(

I was so close to choosing West Ham too.

[Baz]

I’m now in fully support of a rollover.

Also if Jimmy Floyd and -james- prefer, you can PM (not DM) your choices from now on to avoid scumbaggery.

[Baz]

Question: if this rolls over, should it be £10 for new entrants who missed the first go around, or £20?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Big if.

[Baz]

It’s for another game I’m running that ended this weekend with no Victor, courtesy of Brighton and Brentford.

[Spikey M]

You don't pay double if there's a roll over in the Lottery and you didn't have a ticket for the previous round. So I'd say no, £10 for all.

[Boydy]

They could just split the winnings if they go out on the same week?

[SvN]

I'd have them paying double.

[Baz]

Double seems to be the way.

[Boydy]

What if it rolls over again? Double again?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yep. We're all locked in until it's worth billions and billions of pounds and the games we're picking are things like Moonraker Utd vs Microsoft Al-Hilal.

[Baz]

What if it rolls over again? Double again?

It’s only double of you didn’t play the previous round.

For repeat players it’s £10

[Boydy]

Oh, I see. That makes sense.

[Lofty]

Rebuy is usual.

[Baz]

What does that mean? Newcomers pay for rounds they missed, or just standard entry fee regardless of if they’ve played before?

[Lofty]

If there is no winner anyone wishing to be in a rollover buys back in for the same stake again, all picks reset. Just happened to me in my other one where it was down to the final 2 and we both fucked it. Fresh round this weekend and Newcastle fucked me, no lives in that format just instant elimination.

[Baz]

If there is no winner anyone wishing to be in a rollover buys back in for the same stake again, all picks reset.But what about new players who want to join?

[Lofty]

I suppose if they are willing to pay the stake to match up with everyone else then fine (for instance if we all pay another £10 someone new pays £20 otherwise they are getting a cheap shot at an enlarged pot?) Depends on group consensus.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd say it's logical that you'd pay £20 to play for a pot that others have put £20 into creating.

[Baz]

That is indeed what has been decided, and the shame shall apply here should it come to it.

Alas, it's FA Cup weekend so play resumes on Friday 3rd February. Fixtures TBC.

Weirdly I pre-populated the fixtures in the spreadsheet up to this week, which is when the other 2 games have finished. Also quite telling that the game with my rl mates was a three-life jobby like here, and the game with my betting group/syndicate was one-and-done, but still lasted the same amount of time. And James would have won both of the other games. :happycry:

[Baz]

Nearly forgot about this. Updating the spreadsheet now with the fixtures until the end of the season. Hope the cups don't mess things up between now and when the final two fall at the last game of the season in time for a rollover in gameweek 1 next season. :henn0rz:

Week 10
Chelsea vs. Fulham
Everton vs. Arsenal
Aston Villa vs. Leicester
Brentford vs. Southampton
Brighton vs. Bournemouth
Man Utd vs. Crystal Palace
Wolves vs. Liverpool
Newcastle vs. West Ham
Nottm Forest vs. Leeds
Tottenham vs. Man City

It's
Jimmy Floyd 2 - 3 -james-
so maybe picks via PM would be the fairest option, please.

These are the teams you've had:

https://i.imgur.com/cyfpTfa.png

[Baz]

They’ve both picked Brighton. :henn0rz:

[Lofty]

Should be a repick.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Cowards.

[Baz]

Week 11
West Ham vs. Chelsea
Arsenal vs. Brentford
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton
Fulham vs. Nottm Forest
Leicester vs. Tottenham
Southampton vs. Wolves
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle
Leeds vs. Man Utd
Man City vs. Aston Villa
Liverpool vs. Everton

[SvN]

I wonder how much James would've won if he'd backed all of these winners with accumulated stakes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Brighton winner was huge for me, bad news for James.

[Lofty]

In most LMS I have done if all the remaining players pick the same team they have to repick and that choice is eliminated.

[-james-]

I wonder how much James would've won if he'd backed all of these winners with accumulated stakes.

Would be up to about £550 off a tenner. :uhoh:

[niko_cee]

In most LMS I have done if all the remaining players pick the same team they have to repick and that choice is eliminated.

Isn't that a bit unfair though in that, if you have strategised your picks over the course of a run of fixtures, to have that thrown out and be potentially forced into less favourable selections [which could fluctuate depending on who has which teams left]?

[-james-]

Brighton winner was huge for me, bad news for James.

Yeah them failing to win would definitely have improved my chances. We'll probably be level pegging after next week, after which point it's a crapshoot.

[Lofty]

Isn't that a bit unfair though in that, if you have strategised your picks over the course of a run of fixtures, to have that thrown out and be potentially forced into less favourable selections [which could fluctuate depending on who has which teams left]?
On the other hand you could just watch the remaining players pick the same teams for weeks on end with no real jeopardy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Shouldn't happen like that in this game due to the fact I have fewer lives and we have two different selections thus far.

[Baz]

Yeah them failing to win would definitely have improved my chances. We'll probably be level pegging after next week, after which point it's a crapshoot.

Who you having this week?

[-james-]

Wolves. :uhoh:

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.io/urQMrAb_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Baz]

Jim sent his before I posted the fixtures. :rosebud:

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
Brentford vs. Crystal Palace
Brighton vs. Fulham
Chelsea vs. Southampton
Everton vs. Leeds
Nottm Forest vs. Man City
Wolves vs. Bournemouth
Newcastle vs. Liverpool
Man Utd vs. Leicester
Tottenham vs. West Ham

Over to you -james-

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.io/ObPrucA_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[phonics]

This ending in a double loss was the only way it was ever going to go. GG James.

[Baz]

This ending in a double loss was the only way it was ever going to go. GG James.

What you on about?

James 2 - 1 Jimmy Floyd

On we go.

Week 13
Fulham vs. Wolves
Newcastle vs. Brighton
Everton vs. Aston Villa
Leeds vs. Southampton
Leicester vs. Arsenal
West Ham vs. Nottm Forest
Bournemouth vs. Man City
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool
Man Utd vs. Brentford
Tottenham vs. Chelsea


DM plz

[Baz]

Newcastle and United have the cup final so the real fixtures are

Fulham vs. Wolves
Everton vs. Aston Villa
Leeds vs. Southampton
Leicester vs. Arsenal
West Ham vs. Nottm Forest
Bournemouth vs. Man City
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool
Tottenham vs. Chelsea

Deadline is Friday at 7pm

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.io/4eqa8j2_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Lofty]

Brave picks both. The one I'm in just rolled over to a £60 stake, I picked Fulham :moop:

[Baz]

I’ve entered a big one. Starts next week.

Who would you pick, -james-? :flirt:

[-james-]

I’ve entered a big one. Starts next week.

Who would you pick, -james-? :flirt:

I'd have to run the numbers. DM me with your proposed cut. :charm:

Was hoping Jimmy had picked someone from last night's game. :moop:

[Gray Fox]

Jim's needing a big Everton seethe comeback here.

[Baz]

James wins, with 2 lives still remaining. Very impressive.

PM me your payment details and I’ll send the £140 prize money. :thbup:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Well played. Pleased I took the nerve center of western mathematics as far as that.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

James scummed it.

He had to wait until Jimmy flew half way around the world and had a soirée with Scarface.

[Giggles]

Makes you think.

[Baz]

I'd have to run the numbers. DM me with your proposed cut. :charm:

Here we go 210 entries
Prize £2,100. Good luck
Teams
Arsenal x 111
Chelsea x 34
Brighton x 22
Man City x 12
Spurs x 11
Villa x 11
Leicester x 2
Man Utd x 2 :yn:
Brentford x 1
Everton x 1
Leeds x 1
Forest x 1
Southampton x 1
If successful next teams in before 6pm Friday for Saturday/Sunday please

[-james-]

Here we go 210 entries
Prize £2,100. Good luck
Teams
Arsenal x 111
Chelsea x 34
Brighton x 22
Man City x 12
Spurs x 11
Villa x 11
Leicester x 2
Man Utd x 2 :yn:
Brentford x 1
Everton x 1
Leeds x 1
Forest x 1
Southampton x 1
If successful next teams in before 6pm Friday for Saturday/Sunday please

Oh fucking hell. I meant Arsenal then United. :face:

I'll cover your entry if you go out.

[-james-]

Not a good start for the consultancy biz.

[Lofty]

Are we going again? All picks should be blind this time.

[Baz]

Are we going again? All picks should be blind this time.

Not by me. I’ll be doing one for the new season when works not so busy.

[Baz]

Joined a massive local game due to not having the time to run one myself.

Who should I be picking first? Brighton?

[Baz]

Tempted to go for Palace.

https://i.imgur.com/rWGayBD.png

Talk me out of it -james-

[Offshore Toon]

Plucky and aggressive Luton to pull off a dream start against a Brighton side in the middle of an identity crisis.

[Ben]

No chance, they're shite through the centre of defence (and haven't signed anyone new there as far as I'm aware). Brighton will waltz through.

[Offshore Toon]

Brighton have their off days and their core has been disrupted massively. It's hardly #freemoney but anything above 6/1 is well worth a nibble on the opening day.

[Giggles]

Sheffield United got up? Completely missed that one.

[niko_cee]

Brighton are always ripe for a bit of smash and grab work, but I'm not sure that's necessarily Luton's thing and don't promoted clubs usually come up playing their football until the penny drops that they generally aren't good enough to do that after half a dozen games?

Easy 2-0.

Probably value in just backing any home side against one of the promoted mob every week.

[-james-]

Tempted to go for Palace.

https://i.imgur.com/rWGayBD.png

Talk me out of it -james-

Palace is far from optimal but if it comes off you're laughing. But considering most of the field will go for one of three teams you're not really going to be gaining that much from using up Palace if there are upsets.

Arsenal (NFO)
Liverpool (BOU)
Chelsea (LUT)
City (FUL)
Spurs (SHE)
Brighton (BOU)
Newcastle (BUR)

This looks pretty good for the first 7 weeks and then Inshallah.

[-james-]

Punts are usually better when they give you chances to attack in subsequent weeks but you don't really need that considering the above sequence is available.

[Baz]

Palace is far from optimal but if it comes off you're laughing. But considering most of the field will go for one of three teams you're not really going to be gaining that much from using up Palace if there are upsets.

Arsenal (NFO)
Liverpool (BOU)
Chelsea (LUT)
City (FUL)
Spurs (SHE)
Brighton (BOU)
Newcastle (BUR)

This looks pretty good for the first 7 weeks and then Inshallah.
Ta very much. :lewis:

[Baz]

Arsenal (NFO)
Liverpool (BOU)
Chelsea (LUT)
City (FUL)
Spurs (SHE)
Brighton (BOU)
Newcastle (BUR)

This looks pretty good for the first 7 weeks and then Inshallah.

You’re good at this. Presuming Newcastle win this week, what’s the play from there?

[-james-]

Depends how many people are left in. Probably a decent idea to switch to West Ham this week especially there are loads of people still in. The game I'm in still has 90 odd people playing which is highly unusual after 6 weeks.

[SvN]

Out of curiosity, I looked at the cumulative odds of those picks so far. Just under 4.2, according to the data I have.

I expect the reason why so many people are still in your game James is because there's been bankers every week that have come in.

[-james-]

Yep. There are more shit teams to oppose than ever. There's a good home fixture against a bottom five side every week. Go through the top 10 teams for the next 10 weeks, pick their easiest game and assemble the pieces.

[niko_cee]

Also you massively dodged a bullet in that run backing the Spuds.

Have there been any actual upsets this season outside of Chelsea losing repeatedly?

[Baz]

Depends how many people are left in. Probably a decent idea to switch to West Ham this week especially there are loads of people still in. The game I'm in still has 90 odd people playing which is highly unusual after 6 weeks.
I've already submitted so Newcastle so here's hoping they win.

77 left in one, 47 left in the other.

[Lofty]

Brentford shitting the bed at home against a woeful Everton side fucked me over.

[Baz]

Fulham then?

[Baz]

Still going.

18 in one, 16 in the other. I'm already spending the winnings in my head.

West Ham this week, at home to Everton. Hopefully the Thursday trip to Greece won't ruin it.

[-james-]

Still going.

18 in one, 16 in the other. I'm already spending the winnings in my head.

West Ham this week, at home to Everton. Hopefully the Thursday trip to Greece won't ruin it.

Have you already used Villa?

Villa (LUT)
Palace (bur) / Wolves (shu)
Man Utd (lut)
West Ham (bur)
Brentford (lut)
Fulham (nfo)
Wolves (nfo)

It won't get that far but this is my plan through to GW17. My game has a wild card that you play that sees you through if your selection gets a draw, probably use that next week.

[Baz]

No. Villa very popular this week, but is already sent West Ham so cmon Luton (soz).

[Baz]

Damn.

Good luck James.

[Baz]

£680 prize pot has rolled over. :drool:

Starts again this week. Should be over quickly thanks to the rush of Christmas games. More expected to join too so could be close to £1500 prize this time round.

What’s the plan -james-?

[-james-]

£680 prize pot has rolled over. :drool:

Starts again this week. Should be over quickly thanks to the rush of Christmas games. More expected to join too so could be close to £1500 prize this time round.

What’s the plan -james-?



14: Brentford vs Luton
15: Luton vs Arsenal
16: Luton vs Manchester City
17: Nottingham Forest vs Spurs
18: Aston Villa vs Luton
19: Burnley vs Liverpool
20: Manchester United vs Forest
21: Chelsea vs Fulham
22: Luton vs Brighton
23: Newcastle vs Luton
24: good luck brah

[Baz]

Blood bath this week. :drool: 70 eliminated, 26 progress to round 4.

[Baz]

Dead

[Lofty]

Useless vampire cunt.

[Baz]

Another rollover :drool: prize is starting to get unreal

[niko_cee]

Did some absolute maniac pick Chelsea this weekend?

[Baz]

Did some absolute maniac pick Chelsea this weekend?

Surprisingly not.

18 Aston Villa
4 Fulham
3 Newcastle

[niko_cee]

Absolute bloodbath.

[Baz]

Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.

What’s the play -james- :harold:

[-james-]

Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.

What’s the play -james- :harold:

Is it starting this week (where there are only four matches), or after the international break?

[SincereTheRebel]

Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.

What’s the play -james- :harold:

How many people are involved in this and how does the money get so high?

[Baz]

Is it starting this week (where there are only four matches), or after the international break?Unlucky With both selections drawing, the game ends without a winner, so we roll over to game 4. The next full set of fixtures is w/e of 30th March, so we go again then. :thbup:


How many people are involved in this and how does the money get so high?140 players, £10entry, rolled over loads of times.

[Baz]

Is it starting this week (where there are only four matches), or after the international break?
Deadline this Friday. :sherlock:

[-james-]

Deadline this Friday. :sherlock:

I've just entered a game as well. This looks like the optimal path at the moment, though it depends on whether the midweek games in 34 are fair game

30: Chelsea (BUR)
31: Liverpool (SHU)
32: Man City (cry)
33: Brentford (SHU)
34: Man Utd (SHU)
35: Newcastle (SHU)
36: Arsenal (BOU)
37: Everton (SHU)
38: Spurs (SHU)

[niko_cee]

Chelsea first up and backing City against one of their few bogey teams? Bold.

[-james-]

30: Spurs (LUT)
31: Liverpool (SHU)
32: Chelsea (shu)
33: Man City (LUT)
34: Man Utd (SHU)
35: Newcastle (SHU)
36: Arsenal (BOU)
37: Everton (SHU)
38: ?

This is marginally better I think actually depending on the likelihood of making it to 38. Acca will pay about 7/1 to that point.

[Baz]

I’ve gone Bournemouth (eve). :cab:

Will copy your second list once Everton are successfully dispatched tomorrow.

[Lofty]

Gone Arsenal like a mad man.

[Baz]

Bet you glad you switched from Chelsea to Spurs :arry:

[-james-]

Yep, cheers niko. :) Over half the field out.

[Baz]

Dropping like flies with all these draws. :drool:

[-james-]

:moop:

[niko_cee]

You were warned.

[-james-]

I'd do it again. :shrug,:

[niko_cee]

Surely even the data at this point suggests that Chelsea are a bit of a punt in any situation.

[-james-]

I generally just try minimize the odds of getting to the number of matches I expect the game to run for. Chelsea were the joint second shortest team this week (City 1.35, Spurs/Chelsea 1.42, Arsenal 1.52, Liverpool 1.59, Everton 1.75), but in hindsight there was a pretty good case for Arsenal/Everton (considering I was looking at picking them much later and I'm not sure the game will get there).

[SincereTheRebel]

What happenes if Person A has a life left, but they cant make any picks from the teams as they have already picked them previously. Person B has a life left? -james- Baz

[-james-]

What happenes if Person A has a life left, but they cant make any picks from the teams as they have already picked them previously. Person B has a life left? -james- Baz

Do you mean that they've picked all 20 teams? That would depend on the rules of your game. Usually it loops back around.

[SincereTheRebel]

Do you mean that they've picked all 20 teams? That would depend on the rules of your game. Usually it loops back around.

For example. I want to run one for the euros. Lets says its the semi final and all four teams, have already been picked by Person A. Are you saying it resets for them, even though they have picked the four teams in the semi's. They get to pick either of the four teams left?

[-james-]

I'm not sure I've seen it run for a knockout tournament like that before. I think a better rule would be if you don't have any teams left if you get to the semi or final, you're out. Would incentivise riskier play (picking weaker teams) in the groups.

[SincereTheRebel]

Yeah, does sound tricky with knockout football but Ill give it a go, and cross that bridge when I get there.

[-james-]

You definitely want to declare the rules from the outset. I see three options:

Knocked out when you run out of teams
Get a fresh set if you run out of teams
Fresh set after the group stage

[SincereTheRebel]

I prefer the agressive approach. Knocked out when you run out of teams will force you, to pick teams that have yet to the win the competition in the hope you can save picks for the later stages.

[Baz]

I’ve the option to enter into a bit of a weird comp for the euros. Will do it to keep me interested.


Basically you get 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw. All points added up for all your 3 team choices. If all your 3 teams don’t make it through to knock out stages your likely to not win as you won’t pick up any points from them games. Person with the most points at the end wins. However, everyone will guess how many goals are scored throughout the competition at the beginning with the 3 team selection and if there are 2 or more people on the same points at the end we use your goal selection to see who’s closest and they will win.

https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/kCGNXYUAaVCZ.jpg?o=1

Any obvious ways to win?

[SincereTheRebel]

Sounds like you get to pick your three teams and its not a random draw?

[Baz]

Yeah you pick 3 upto the value of 50.

Germany seem a must at 16, especially considering Croatia are 17 and their groups solid.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I would go France, Portugal and Romania or maybe France, England and Slovenia.

[SincereTheRebel]

Belgium seem high. As you say, Germany is a must.

[-james-]

Using predicted group stage goals (https://x.com/elevenify/status/1794712977654046801) as a proxy for team strength, I (chatgpt) get England, Germany and Turkey as the optimal 3.





from itertools import combinations
import pandas as pd

teams = ['England', 'France', 'Germany', 'Portugal', 'Spain', 'Belgium', 'Italy', 'Netherlands', 'Croatia', 'Denmark', 'Turkey', 'Ukraine', 'Switzerland', 'Serbia', 'Czechia', 'Austria', 'Hungary', 'Romania', 'Slovakia', 'Scotland', 'Georgia', 'Poland', 'Slovenia', 'Albania']
xG = [8.5, 8.1, 8, 7.5, 7, 6.9, 5.3, 5, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.3, 3, 3, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3, 1.5]
cost = [22, 24, 16, 21, 19, 23, 18, 20, 17, 14, 6, 13, 15, 9, 8, 12, 11, 5, 4, 7, 1, 10, 3, 2]

df = pd.DataFrame({
'Team': teams,
'xG': xG,
'Cost': cost
})

max_xG = 0
best_combination = None

for combination in combinations(df.itertuples(), 3):
total_cost = sum(team.Cost for team in combination)
total_xG = sum(team.xG for team in combination)

if total_cost <= 50 and total_xG > max_xG:
max_xG = total_xG
best_combination = combination

result = [(team.Team, team.xG, team.Cost) for team in best_combination]



[('England', 8.5, 22), ('Germany', 8.0, 16), ('Turkey', 3.8, 6)]

[Baz]

:D

That’s that then.

[Baz]

Any guesses for the tiebreaker?

[SincereTheRebel]

Seems like more goals are being scored than ever. Not sure if this is a fact across the major european leagues but i would go higher than ever

[-james-]

https://www.spreadex.com/sports/en-GB/spread-betting/football/uefa---euro-2024/tournament-totals/spr/p3295348

Spreadex have it at 137 - 142 so 140 seems a fine guess.

[Baz]

I did 139

[Baz]

Decided to run my own version of this if anyone fancies playing? Redone the prices to match the current outright odds.

Last Man Balling (https://lastmanballing.com)

[SincereTheRebel]

Ive thrown 40 at various euro games over the summer. 4 days to late.

[SincereTheRebel]

So ive been running one for euros. Managed to get 19 man to give up a £10 for two lives. First round and we only have two man with two lives left. Belgium, Denmark and surprisingly Ukraine costing lives. I went with Italy and thinking about going with Croatia

[Baz]

Using predicted group stage goals (https://x.com/elevenify/status/1794712977654046801) as a proxy for team strength, I (chatgpt) get England, Germany and Turkey as the optimal 3.





from itertools import combinations
import pandas as pd

teams = ['England', 'France', 'Germany', 'Portugal', 'Spain', 'Belgium', 'Italy', 'Netherlands', 'Croatia', 'Denmark', 'Turkey', 'Ukraine', 'Switzerland', 'Serbia', 'Czechia', 'Austria', 'Hungary', 'Romania', 'Slovakia', 'Scotland', 'Georgia', 'Poland', 'Slovenia', 'Albania']
xG = [8.5, 8.1, 8, 7.5, 7, 6.9, 5.3, 5, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.3, 3, 3, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3, 1.5]
cost = [22, 24, 16, 21, 19, 23, 18, 20, 17, 14, 6, 13, 15, 9, 8, 12, 11, 5, 4, 7, 1, 10, 3, 2]

df = pd.DataFrame({
'Team': teams,
'xG': xG,
'Cost': cost
})

max_xG = 0
best_combination = None

for combination in combinations(df.itertuples(), 3):
total_cost = sum(team.Cost for team in combination)
total_xG = sum(team.xG for team in combination)

if total_cost <= 50 and total_xG > max_xG:
max_xG = total_xG
best_combination = combination

result = [(team.Team, team.xG, team.Cost) for team in best_combination]



[('England', 8.5, 22), ('Germany', 8.0, 16), ('Turkey', 3.8, 6)]
:lewis:

[Baz]

Is it mathematically possible for me to win?

https://iili.io/dKsbLhl.jpg

[SincereTheRebel]

How did this go in the end? My last to stand challenege for the euros, the winner with £10 entry fee won £210.

Will you be doing a game with a cash prize during the prem?

[Baz]

nah. I was going to, and started redoing the website (https://LastManBalling.com) to try and drum up interest for a massive online game, but my hearts not in it. :worried:

[SincereTheRebel]

nah. I was going to, and started redoing the website (https://LastManBalling.com) to try and drum up interest for a massive online game, but my hearts not in it. :worried:

Im running a similar game but its got a £20 entry fee for mine. No website for me though. Its just 15+ lads i know personally.

However its a league table format. Your team wins, you get 3 points against your name. You draw, you get 1 point. Most points at end of the seasons wins 65%+ of the pot. It will go all the way to the end of the season.

[Baz]

Sounds like a fun spin on it. Better than being ‘out’ when your team doesn’t win. Will be interesting to see if it’s close by the end of the season.

[SincereTheRebel]

Your version, Ive ran three times now and 75% of the players are out before the 25% of the competition has been completed. The seethe

[Lofty]

Some knock out rounds we've done in our whatsapp group have seen perverts scooping the kitty before the tea time kick off :D

[SincereTheRebel]

Yeah :lol: Always my biggest concern is reaching the final rounds with half the group left but it NEVER gets to that point. Its much more difficult that expected.

Baz Your game has a £5 public entry fee plus you are probably making some income on the back end. You have a whole website ffs. Mine is a 20£ fee and its private with my man dem. If you are doing yours, i will not try and push mine in TTH. Yours has a bigger pull plus its cheaper, ya cunt.

[Baz]

nah you go for it.

I’m wrestling with getting the website to display the correct fixtures, more of a hobby than with grand plans.

FWIW the website hosting is free and the domain name was cheap. Plan is to have 90% of entry fees as the prizepot, and take a 10% cut for my time.

[Baz]

Sorry Sincere I've completely knicked your idea. :sorry:

If anyone wants to join, I'd like it - the more playing, the more fun the spreadsheet is. :cool2:

£5 entry - game details here (https://lastmanballing.com/) - payment here (https://buy.stripe.com/5kA03v8ba7VT16E147) via Stripe (or PM for bank details) - submit via WhatsApp (https://akr.st/lmbwa) every week so its all in one place.

Game lasts 20 weeks so you end up using every team once. League table format. Winner takes all.

[SincereTheRebel]

That is fine, but i want my percentage. I want in!

[SincereTheRebel]

100+ man in there now ya cunt. Baz

[Baz]

Nah I padded the numbers in the hope of conning people into joining. It is 9 or 10. :sst:

[Baz]

I’ve reverted back to real entries and only on 21. :( even after posting on Reddit and Twitter. Disappointing!

Anyone here thinking of joining? Info (https://lastmanballing.com)

[Mike]

I’ve joined.

[SincereTheRebel]

I’ve reverted back to real entries and only on 21. :( even after posting on Reddit and Twitter. Disappointing!

Anyone here thinking of joining? Info (https://lastmanballing.com)

You still scamming your numbers?

[Baz]

You still scamming your numbers?

Nope, all legit now. I need to add 2 more actually, but busy at work.

You joining?

[SincereTheRebel]

No. I will still to the one with my real mates lad. I may squeeze just over 19 man for 20£ each

[Baz]

50 people now with 12 hours to the deadline. Hopefully get a few more. Would be nice to get £300 prizepot, which would be 56 people cos I'm adding the £50 I was offering for the Euros competition but ended up winning. :rosebud:

[SincereTheRebel]

I got 21 man in mine. 420£ in total with the winner taking 70%.

[Baz]

62 here, £325 for the winner. The WhatsApp chat is both civil and not too busy. One of my friends posted an unfunny TikTok video that got shot down with a “If we are going to get more non game related messages like that then not worth carrying on.” so he left in a strop (after sending all 20 selections) so it set the precedent that nobody wants to use it as a LADS group chat. Especially cos there’s at least 2 women playing.

I paid the Twitter account @footyscran to promote my game after he offered, and a week of paid Twitter ads had achieved very little, but he seems to have stolen my money instead. :stamford:

[Lofty]

Having picked Arsenal and City the first two weeks, I'm struggling this weekend.

[SincereTheRebel]

Brighton and Fulham means im undeafeted. Im going with Chelsea.

[Baz]

In my big local game, 2 x Brighton and 1 x Palace in the final 3 today means a rollover and the prize money is approx £3400. :drool:

[SincereTheRebel]

Im currently sitting at the top of my league with 8 wins and 2 draws. Splitting the season in half was smart Baz. Its such a long time.

[Baz]

Im currently sitting at the top of my league with 8 wins and 2 draws. Splitting the season in half was smart Baz. Its such a long time.
Top of my league has 30 points after ten straight wins. Hopefully he doesn’t go 20-0.

It’s a lot more work than I’d hoped. Not looking forward to setting up the second half.

[Baz]

1871123248026648766

If anyone wants to join the new game, starting 14th January.

[Ben]

We've got one starting up at work, starting 4th January. But because we go on shutdown, picks had to be in by this morning. There's two rounds between now and then, so I imagine we see a lot of early fallers.

[Baz]

Decided to run my own version of this if anyone fancies playing? Redone the prices to match the current outright odds.

Last Man Balling (https://lastmanballing.com)

New game starts on Tuesday if anyone wants to sign up? Current prize pot is £387, after someone just won £325. £10 entry.